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SCENARIO APPLICATIONS: STRESS TESTING COMPANIES in the ENERGY VALUE CHAIN Acknowledgements

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SCENARIO APPLICATIONS: STRESS TESTING COMPANIES in the ENERGY VALUE CHAIN Acknowledgements Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies Cambridge Case Study Series SCENARIO APPLICATIONS: STRESS TESTING COMPANIES IN THE ENERGY VALUE CHAIN Acknowledgements Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies gratefully acknowledges the Institute for Risk Management for supporting the Contents research efforts summarised in this report. The Centre is grateful for the expertise provided by our research About the Institute of Risk Management (IRM) ............................................................................4 team, collaborators, and subject matter specialists. Any Forward from IRM . .5 misinterpretation in use of the advice provided is entirely Executive Summary ......................................................................................................6 the responsibility of the Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies. Section 1: Introduction ...................................................................................................8 Paper Citation: Companies within the Energy Value Chain. .9 Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies, 2019. Scenario Section 2: The Business Environment of Energy Value Chain Companies. 10 Applications: Stress Testing Companies in the Energy Value Chain. Cambridge Centre A Market View ......................................................................................................10 for Risk Studies at the University of Cambridge Judge State of Geopolitics .................................................................................................11 Business School in collaboration with the Institute of Risk Currency Exchange Rates ............................................................................................12 Management. or Cyber Risks .........................................................................................................13 Ralph, D; Tuveson, M; Copic, J; Deng, K., Carpenter, O., Climate Change ....................................................................................................13 Coburn, A. 2019. Scenario Applications: Stress Testing Self-Reported Top Enterprise Risks by Companies in the Energy Value Chain. .15 Companies in the Energy Value Chain. Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies at the University of Cambridge Judge Section 3: Exploration of Risks through Scenarios. 17 Business School in collaboration with the Institute of Risk Introduction to Scenario Stress Tests . 17 Management. Scenario Stress Tests to Assess Risk Exposure and the Value of Mitigations .............................................18 Section 4: Selected Scenarios for the Energy Value Chain .................................................................21 Overview and Selection of Scenarios .................................................................................21 Cambridge Centre for Risk Scenario #1: Geopolitical Crisis: Middle East Conflict ..................................................................23 Studies Research Team Scenario #2: Natural Catastrophe: Hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico. 30 Scenario #3: Liability Risk: Litigation Against Carbon Emissions ........................................................35 Dr Michelle Tuveson, Chairman & Executive Director Section 5: Conclusions . 40 Professor Daniel Ralph, Academic Director Dr Andrew Coburn, Chief Scientist Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies Summary of Qualitative Findings for Selected Scenarios. 40 Simon Ruffle, Director of Research and Innovation University of Cambridge Judge Business School Reflections and Future Vision ........................................................................................42 Jennifer Copic, Project Manager and Liability Research Lead Trumpington Street Bibliography ...........................................................................................................44 Dr Andy Skelton, Lead Modeller Cambridge CB2 1AG United Kingdom Ken Deng, Lead Financial Risk Research [email protected] Appendix A: Transition to a Low-Carbon Economy ........................................................................51 Oliver Carpenter, Lead Environmental Risk Research Website and Research Platform Appendix B: Science in Scenarios – Geopolitical: Middle East Conflict . 54 Dr Jennifer Daffron, Lead Technology Risk Research www.jbs.cam.ac.uk/faculty-research/centres/risk Tamara Evan, Lead Geopolitical Risk Research James Bourdeau, Geopolitical Risk Research Institute of Risk Management Phil Cameron, Cyber Risk Research Sackville House Timothy Douglas, Risk Modeller 143 - 149 Fenchurch Street Timothy Summers, Senior Data Scientist London William Turner, Data Scientist EC3M 6BN Dr Paul Burgess, Senior Advisor for Risk Management United Kingdom Jayne Tooke, Communications Assistant Website www.theirm.org The views contained in this report are entirely those of the research team of the Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies, and do not imply any endorsement of these views by the organisations supporting the research, or our consultants and collaborators. The results of the Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies research presented in this report are for information purposes only. This report is not intended to provide a sufficient basis on which to make an investment decision. The Centre is not liable for any loss or damage arising from its use. Any commercial use will require a license agreement with the Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies. Copyright © 2019 by Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies. Scenario Applications: Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies Scenario Applications: Stress Testing Companies in the Energy Value Chain 2 3 Stress Testing Companies in the Energy Value Chain About the Institute of Foreword from IRM Risk Management (IRM) We are delighted to continue our working partnership with the Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies which has produced this valuable guidance for the The IRM is the leading professional body for Enterprise Risk Management (ERM). We drive excellence in managing risk energy sector. to ensure organisations are ready for the opportunities and threats of the future. We do this by providing internationally recognised qualifications and training, publishing research and guidance and setting professional standards. Firms throughout the energy value chain need innovative IRM has an active special interest group of practitioners tools, like the scenario analysis techniques outlined in working in the energy sector. We will encourage the For over 30 years our qualifications have been the global this report, in order to understand and manage risk and members of that group now to take the Cambridge work choice of qualifications for risk professionals and their opportunity in a volatile world. As the paper says, the and ‘road test’ it, working as a community to further employers. We are an independent, not for profit body, with extreme risks that the sector faces may not be predictable develop new thinking in this area. members working in all industries, in all risk disciplines and in the conventional way, but they are foreseeable. The in all sectors around the world. thinking in this guidance will help organisations sharpen I would like to thank all the organisations and individuals up their foresight and improve their resilience in respect of who contributed to this work and also the Cambridge team future events. for their focused and thorough approach, bringing some new thinking on concepts and techniques into the risk The report outlines three plausible scenarios that should management space. be considered by any organisation operating in the energy sector: a Middle East conflict, a Gulf of Mexico hurricane and the emergence of legal liability relating to climate change. Whether these scenarios themselves unfold as described is only part of the story: the process Socrates Coudounaris, of marshalling the right people in an organisation to BEng (Hons) MSc FCII CIP CFIRM have a meaningful discussion around the scenarios and IRM Chair considering their implications and alternatives will be of Risk Management Director, great value in itself. Reinsurance Group of America Scenario Applications: Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies Scenario Applications: Stress Testing Companies in the Energy Value Chain 4 5 Stress Testing Companies in the Energy Value Chain Executive Summary The energy value chain is a vital component of the global Descriptive Stress Test Scenarios • Financials: Access to a “fighting fund” from company set of risks is a first step toward cost-benefit analysis of economy, an industry whose outputs underpin the growth reserves or in some cases, insurance, may be of critical resilience management and investment. We believe this and productivity of all other sectors of the global economy. importance in responding to a large shock. A well- study contributes to the general intellectual field of building The energy value chain spans the gamut from fossil fuel capitalised organisation will have opportunities to standardised evaluation processes for enabling more production to high intensity energy consumers. The future acquire distressed elements of other businesses in the resilient organisations. business prospects of the companies that are part of this aftermath of an ecosystem shock or regional disaster. value chain range widely and depend on both internal and external forces. In this case study, we present the • Reputation: A shock may depress stock prices in the application of scenario stress tests to energy value chain Geopolitical Natural Liability Risk: medium or long term.
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