A Tale of Two Electorates
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OPENING PANDORA's BOX David Cameron's Referendum Gamble On
OPENING PANDORA’S BOX David Cameron’s Referendum Gamble on EU Membership Credit: The Economist. By Christina Hull Yale University Department of Political Science Adviser: Jolyon Howorth April 21, 2014 Abstract This essay examines the driving factors behind UK Prime Minister David Cameron’s decision to call a referendum if the Conservative Party is re-elected in 2015. It addresses the persistence of Euroskepticism in the United Kingdom and the tendency of Euroskeptics to generate intra-party conflict that often has dire consequences for Prime Ministers. Through an analysis of the relative impact of political strategy, the power of the media, and British public opinion, the essay argues that addressing party management and electoral concerns has been the primary influence on David Cameron’s decision and contends that Cameron has unwittingly unleashed a Pandora’s box that could pave the way for a British exit from the European Union. Acknowledgments First, I would like to thank the Bates Summer Research Fellowship, without which I would not have had the opportunity to complete my research in London. To Professor Peter Swenson and the members of The Senior Colloquium, Gabe Botelho, Josh Kalla, Gabe Levine, Mary Shi, and Joel Sircus, who provided excellent advice and criticism. To Professor David Cameron, without whom I never would have discovered my interest in European politics. To David Fayngor, who flew halfway across the world to keep me company during my summer research. To my mom for her unwavering support and my dad for his careful proofreading. And finally, to my adviser Professor Jolyon Howorth, who worked with me on this project for over a year and a half. -
Gerrymandering and Malapportionment, Romanian Style
EEPXXX10.1177/0888325417711222East European Politics and SocietiesGiugăl et al. / Gerrymandering and Malapportionment 711222research-article2017 East European Politics and Societies and Cultures Volume XX Number X Month 201X 1 –21 © 2017 SAGE Publications Gerrymandering and 10.1177/0888325417711222 http://eeps.sagepub.com hosted at Malapportionment, Romanian http://online.sagepub.com Style: The 2008 Electoral System Aurelian Giugăl University of Bucharest Ron Johnston University of Bristol Mihail Chiru Median Research Centre, Bucharest Ionut Ciobanu Independent Researcher Alexandru Gavriș Bucharest University of Economic Studies Varieties of gerrymandering and malapportionment can appear not only in electoral systems where all legislative seats are allocated to plurality winners in single-member districts but also in proportional Single-Member District (SMD)–based electoral sys- tems and in settings where multi-partisan committees draw the district boundaries. This article investigates such a case, in which the main parliamentary parties collaborated in order to minimize the uncertainty regarding intra-party allocation of seats. The 2008 electoral reform in Romania created such opportunities, and both the SMD maps and the electoral results at the parliamentary election held in the same year indicate that the parties collaborated to design a number of safe seats for each of them. We draw on a novel data set that measures the degree to which the newly created SMDs reflect natu- ral or artificial strongholds of concentrated partisan support in otherwise unfavorable political territories, and also assess the malapportionment of these districts. All three types of mechanisms were frequently used, and our logistic regression analyses indi- cate that nomination from the “right” type of SMD was the main factor deciding which of each party’s candidates got elected. -
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Executive Summary 1 Voter Power under First Past the Post 2 The effect of moving to the Alternative Vote 2 The VPI website 2 1. The AV Referendum in context 3 The referendum options 3 First Past the Post in the 2010 General Election 4 The effects of marginal and safe seats 4 2. The Voter Power Index 6 How the Voter Power Index is calculated 6 Voter Power under FPtP and AV 7 Numbers of marginal and safe constituencies 8 Beyond the referendum 10 Conclusion 11 Appendix 1. Summary of electoral systems 12 Appendix 2. The Voter Power Index: the statistical basis 14 Calculating the VPI for First Past the Post 14 Calculating the VPI for the Alternative Vote 15 Endnotes 18 This report examines the distribution of electoral power amongst voters in the UK and the possible impact of a change in the electoral system. It compares the distribution under the current First Past the Post system (FPtP) with the Alternative Vote system (AV) which will be put before voters in the May 2011 referendum. Our aim is to help voters consider the impact of the choice on offer in the referendum. Our analysis shows that moving from FPtP to AV will mitigate some of the distortions of the current system, but that inequalities and inefficiencies in the distribution of voter power would remain. Our research builds on nef’s 2005 report Spoiled Ballot which developed the first Voter Power Index (VPI).1 The VPI measures the power of voters to change the outcome of the election. Voter power is measured for each constituency and is determined by the chance of it changing hands and the number of voters. -
UKIP-Wales-Manifesto-2021.Pdf
UKIP Wales Senedd Manifesto 2021 2021 Senedd Election www.ukip.wales Page 1 CONTENTS Page Topic 1 Introduction 2 Devolution 6 Immigration 8 Health & Social Care 14 Education 18 Transport & Economic Development 20 Environment, Energy & Rural Affairs 23 Welsh Language 25 The Family 27 Veterans’ Issues 29 Culture & Communities 31 Contact Details www.ukip.wales INTRODUCTION Neil Hamilton MS Leader, UKIP Wales Today, devolution is a one-way revenue amounting to only 25% process. Despite Government with the funding gap being filled of Wales Acts in 1998, 2006, by the English taxpayer. 2014 and 2017, the train keeps on moving in only one direction The time has come to stop - towards independence. The this runaway train to the Welsh Government always disintegration of the UK and demands more power – just institutionalised poverty and like the Euro-federalists of decline for Wales. the European Commission. The Welsh Government now Only UKIP has a full manifesto wants the devolution of justice of policies to put Wales back on and to remove limits on Welsh the UK political map, reverse Government borrowing. institutional economic decline, transfer power in health and Fearful of failing to win an education from Cardiff Bay outright majority in these and directly to the people who elections, First Minister use these vital services, to Drakeford has been cosying up to support strict controls on mass “Only UKIP has Plaid Cymru to get their support immigration and end bogus for continuing the permanent asylum-seeking, and defend a full manifesto Labour Government either as full British history and culture from coalition partners or through a leftist, anti-British attacks. -
Seat Safety and Female (Under)Representation in the U.S. Congress
Seat safety and female (under)representation in the U.S. Congress Akhil Rajan, Alexander Kustov, Maikol Cerda, Frances Rosenbluth, Ian Shapiro Yale University Draft: May 17, 2021 Abstract Women have made significant strides toward equal representation within the U.S. Congress, but their seat share has mostly increased within the Democratic—but not Republican—Party. We argue that one driver of women’s underrepresentation among Republicans is the proliferation of safe seats. Because safe seats encourage ideological extremism in candidates and because women are stereotyped as more liberal than men, we expect women candidates to outperform men in safer Democratic seats but underperform men in safer Republican seats (relative to more competitive seats). Based on a new dataset linking all candidates for the U.S. House and their districts’ partisan composition since 2000, we show women both enter and win elections in safer Republican (Democratic) seats at relatively lower (higher) rates than men. Our results strikingly suggest that, even conditional on running, a female Republican candidate has an overall better chance of winning in a competitive seat than in a safe Republican seat. Keywords: Congress, Gender, Representation, Inequality, Electoral Competition Word count: 3700 Introduction After a record number of women won election to the United States Congress, many commentators declared 2018 to be the “Year of the Woman.” But the use of a caveat is warranted: if 2018 was the year of the woman, it must have been the year of the Democratic woman. By contrast, Republican women lost a whopping ten seats, their largest decline in the history of the United States House of Representatives. -
The Conservative Agenda for Constitutional Reform
UCL DEPARTMENT OF POLITICAL SCIENCE The Constitution Unit Department of Political Science UniversityThe Constitution College London Unit 29–30 Tavistock Square London WC1H 9QU phone: 020 7679 4977 fax: 020 7679 4978 The Conservative email: [email protected] www.ucl.ac.uk/constitution-unit A genda for Constitutional The Constitution Unit at UCL is the UK’s foremost independent research body on constitutional change. It is part of the UCL School of Public Policy. THE CONSERVATIVE Robert Hazell founded the Constitution Unit in 1995 to do detailed research and planning on constitutional reform in the UK. The Unit has done work on every aspect AGENDA of the UK’s constitutional reform programme: devolution in Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland and the English regions, reform of the House of Lords, electoral reform, R parliamentary reform, the new Supreme Court, the conduct of referendums, freedom eform Prof FOR CONSTITUTIONAL of information, the Human Rights Act. The Unit is the only body in the UK to cover the whole of the constitutional reform agenda. REFORM The Unit conducts academic research on current or future policy issues, often in collaboration with other universities and partners from overseas. We organise regular R programmes of seminars and conferences. We do consultancy work for government obert and other public bodies. We act as special advisers to government departments and H parliamentary committees. We work closely with government, parliament and the azell judiciary. All our work has a sharply practical focus, is concise and clearly written, timely and relevant to policy makers and practitioners. The Unit has always been multi disciplinary, with academic researchers drawn mainly from politics and law. -
Democracy and Elections
10 Democracy and Elections Key Terms Boundaries Commission (p. 406) A body that recommends changes to election boundaries. By-election (p. 422) A district-level election held between general elections. Campaign Finance regulations (p. 409) Laws that govern political fundraising and/or spending. Disclosure (p. 411) Revealing otherwise private information, such as campaign expenses. Election Platform (p. 414) A list of political pledges announced before or during an election campaign. Gerrymandering (p. 406) The purposeful manipulation of electoral districts to maximize one party’s chances of winning. GOTV (p. 420) Efforts to mobilize supporters to vote, such as telephone reminders. Government Subsidy (p. 410) Public funds used to support an individual, group, or cause. Incumbent (p. 421) An elected official who currently represents an electoral district. Leader’s tour (p. 414) A visit of various electoral districts by the party leader and an entourage of staffers and journalists. Mixed Member Proportional (MMP) System (p. 404) An electoral system that combines geographic and partisan representation by providing extra seats to parties whose share of seats is lower than their share of the popular vote. Party Nomination (p. 420) An internal contest to decide who should represent a party locally in an upcoming election. Inside Canadian Politics © Oxford University Press Canada, 2016 Permanent Campaign (p. 413) The practice of electioneering outside of an election period, especially by leveraging government resources. Plebiscite (p. 422) A citizen vote held to inform a decision by a representative body. Political Contribution (p. 410) Donations to a political candidate, group, or cause. Recall (p. 423) Legislated process by which electors of a given district may petition for a by-election. -
Thecoalition
The Coalition Voters, Parties and Institutions Welcome to this interactive pdf version of The Coalition: Voters, Parties and Institutions Please note that in order to view this pdf as intended and to take full advantage of the interactive functions, we strongly recommend you open this document in Adobe Acrobat. Adobe Acrobat Reader is free to download and you can do so from the Adobe website (click to open webpage). Navigation • Each page includes a navigation bar with buttons to view the previous and next pages, along with a button to return to the contents page at any time • You can click on any of the titles on the contents page to take you directly to each article Figures • To examine any of the figures in more detail, you can click on the + button beside each figure to open a magnified view. You can also click on the diagram itself. To return to the full page view, click on the - button Weblinks and email addresses • All web links and email addresses are live links - you can click on them to open a website or new email <>contents The Coalition: Voters, Parties and Institutions Edited by: Hussein Kassim Charles Clarke Catherine Haddon <>contents Published 2012 Commissioned by School of Political, Social and International Studies University of East Anglia Norwich Design by Woolf Designs (www.woolfdesigns.co.uk) <>contents Introduction 03 The Coalition: Voters, Parties and Institutions Introduction The formation of the Conservative-Liberal In his opening paper, Bob Worcester discusses Democratic administration in May 2010 was a public opinion and support for the parties in major political event. -
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Where Next for the Liberal Democrats?
Where next for the Liberal Democrats? Tim Bale Aron Cheung Alan Wager It has, to put it mildly, been a difficult twelve months for the Liberal Democrats. A year ago this week, polling conducted by YouGov and Ipsos Mori showed their support at 20% – a level the party had not enjoyed since they’d entered their ill-fated coalition with the Conservatives in the spring of 2010. Nine long years later, they were daring to dream once again: could it be that, under Jo Swinson, we would soon see the UK’s electoral map coloured with the same amount of Lib Dem yellow that Charles Kennedy and, latterly, Nick Clegg had once achieved? The answer, of course, was no. The general election that followed was a not just an electoral disappointment but a disaster – so much so that Swinson herself lost her seat. Not only that, but the party’s main policy aim – to reverse the Brexit decision – lay in tatters. Yet, despite these setbacks, the new electoral geography of the post-Brexit era brings with it challenges but also opportunities for the Liberal Democrats – existential questions but also, if they can exploit their new electoral coalition, some potential answers. This short paper hopes to set all this out just as ballots open for the party’s new leader. Putting the 2019 result in historical context The eleven seats the Liberal Democrats won in December 2019 may have represented a slight decline on the dozen the party achieved in 2017 under Tim Farron; but they also represented a near-halving of the 21 which, following multiple defections, the party went into the general election defending. -
Multilevel Governance and Federalism
Vol. 34, no 2 – October | Octobre 2010 MultilevelMultilevel GovernanceGovernance andand FederalismFederalism ●● MultilevelMultilevel GovernanceGovernance andand Federalism:Federalism: CloselyClosely LinkedLinked oror IncompatibleIncompatible Concepts?Concepts? ●● TwoTwo CheersCheers forfor MajoritarianismMajoritarianism ●● TheThe UKUK –– BeyondBeyond Majoritarianism?Majoritarianism? IPSA New Website! WhoWho WillWill HostHost thethe 20152015 WorldWorld Congress?Congress? IstanbulIstanbul andand MontrealMontreal HeadHead toto Head.Head. Participation Vol. 34, no 2 THE 2009-2012 IPSA EXECUTIVE COMMITTEE COMITÉ EXÉCUTIF DE L'AISP 2009-2012 President | Président Leonardo Morlino, Italy Contents Sommaire Past President | Présidente sortante Lourdes Sola, Brazil First Vice-President | Première vice-présidente Helen Milner, USA Vice-Presidents | Vice-présidents Wyn P. Grant, United Kingdom Marian Sawer, Australia About Us À propos Other members | Autres membres Hyug Baeg Im, Korea From the Editor | Éditorial Giliberto Capano, Italy Vincent Hoffmann-Martinot, France E L Mikhail Ilyin, Russia 2 Building Bridges L E B Sule Kut, Turkey A Marian SAWER L Kia Lindroos, Finland L 2 U Francisco José Llera, Spain A P Irmina Matonyte, Lithuania : Participation is the biannual bulletin of the International Political Science O Jose Alvaro Moises, Brazil T Feature | Dossier O H Leslie A. Pal, Canada Association. IPSA is an international non-profit scientific organization founded in P Werner J. Patzelt, Germany Teresa Sasinska-Klas, Poland 3 Multilevel Governance and Federalism: Aiji Tanaka, Japan 1949 under the auspices of UNESCO. Its objective is to promote the E Closely Linked or Incompatible Concepts? L L E B International Political Science Abstracts advancement of political science. Its includes 3,600 individual members, 90 asso- Michael STEIN Lisa TURKEWITSCH A L Documentation politique internationale L U A Paul Godt, Editor | Éditeur ciate members and 51 national and regional associations. -
Getting It in Proportion?
Getting it in Proportion? Trade unions and electoral reform Contents Foreword 4 1 Introduction and background 6 2 Is there a case for change? 9 3 Different electoral systems 17 4 The practicalities of change 23 5 Conclusion 25 6 Voices on electoral reform 27 References 29 2 TOUCHSTONE EXTRAS Getting it in Proportion? This report has been prepared by the TUC as a discussion paper for the trade union movement. Getting it in Proportion? This Touchstone Extra pamphlet sets out the arguments for and against changing Britain’s electoral system. It puts the debate in context by summarising the political and historical background against which our democracy has developed, examines how well the existing system works and looks at possible reasons for change. It describes the various alternative electoral systems, discusses the practicalities of change and concludes with a useful comparison of different systems and their advantages and disadvantages. It is not intended to draw any final conclusion about whether or not electoral reform is needed, but rather to be used as a starting point for further debate. Touchstone Extra These new online pamphlets are designed to complement the TUC’s influential Touchstone Pamphlets by looking in more detail at specific areas of policy debate raised in the series. Touchstone Extra publications are not statements of TUC policy but instead are designed, like the wider Touchstone Pamphlets series, to inform and stimulate debate. The full series can be downloaded at www.tuc.org.uk/touchstonepamphlets TOUCHSTONE EXTRAS Getting it in Proportion? 3 Foreword Brendan Barber At our 2009 Congress, delegates voted in support of a motion calling on the TUC to stimulate debate about electoral reform for Westminster elections.