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Virginia Special Places in Peril Jamestown, Chincoteague, and Shenandoah Threatened by Climate Disruption

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Virginia Special Places in Peril Jamestown, Chincoteague, and Shenandoah Threatened by Climate Disruption VIRGINIA SPECIAL PLACES IN PERIL JAMESTOWN, CHINCOTEAGUE, AND SHENANDOAH THREATENED BY CLIMATE DISRUPTION At stake is what makes Jamestown, Chincoteague, and Shenandoah special places that Americans love. Principal Authors Stephen Saunders Tom Easley The Rocky Mountain Climate Organization the Contributing Author ROCKY Theo Spencer MOUNTAIN Natural Resources Defense Council CLIMATE Organization September 2010 A Profile by the Rocky Mountain Climate Organization and the Natural Resources Defense Council About RMCO National Park Service and U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. Tom Easley is director of The Rocky Mountain Climate Organization programs at RMCO and a former statewide works to keep the interior American West programs manager at the Colorado State Parks special by reducing climate disruption and its agency. Theo Spencer is a senior advocate in impacts in the region. We do this in part by NRDC’s Climate Center. spreading the word about what a disrupted climate can do to us and what we can do Acknowledgements about it. Learn more at www.rockymountainclimate.org. The principal authors would like to thank the following for their assistance: from Shenandoah About NRDC National Park, Martha Bogle, Wendy Cass, Gordon Olson, and Jim Schaberl; from Colonial The Natural Resources Defense Council is a National Historical Park, Dorothy Geyer; from national nonprofit organization with more than Assateague Island National Seashore, Carl 1.3 million members and online activists. Zimmerman; from the National Park Service in Since 1970, our lawyers, scientists, and Washington, Duncan Morrow and Julie Thomas other environmental specialists have worked McNamee; from Chincoteague National Wildlife to protect the world's natural resources, Refuge, Louis Hinds; from Prime Hook National public health, and the environment. NRDC Wildlife Refuge, Harold Laskowski; and from the has offices in New York City, Washington, University of Arizona, Jonathan Overpeck and D.C., Los Angeles, San Francisco, Chicago, Jeremy Weiss. Livingston, MT, and Beijing. Visit NRDC on the Web at www.nrdc.org. The cover photo of Shenandoah National Park is by John F. Mitchell, NPS. The photo credited to About the authors Jane Thomas, IAN on page 1 is from the Integration & Application Network Image Library, ian.umces.edu/imagelibrary/. Photos not Stephen Saunders is president of RMCO otherwise credited are from iStockphoto.com. and former Deputy Assistant Secretary of the U.S. Department of the Interior over the the ROCKY MOUNTAIN CLIMATE Organization The Rocky Mountain Climate Organization Natural Resources Defense Council P.O. Box 270444, Louisville, CO 80027 40 West 20th Street, New York, NY 10011 1633 Fillmore St., Suite 412, Denver, CO 80206 212-727-2700 / Fax 212-727-1773 303-861-6481 Washington / Los Angeles / San Francisco www.rockymountainclimate.org www.nrdc.org Copyright © 2010 by the Rocky Mountain Climate Organization and Natural Resources Defense Council i INTRODUCTION CONTENTS Executive Summary .............................................................................. iii 1. Introduction ........................................... .......................................... 1 2. Virginia’s Economy at Stake .............................................. .............. 4 3. More Heat ............................................. .......................................... 6 4. Higher Seas ............................................. ........................................ 10 5. Stronger Coastal Storms ................................................................ 19 6. Loss of Wildlife ................................................................................ 23 7. Disruption of Plant Communities .................................................... 28 8. Other Impacts ................................................................................. 31 9. Tackling Climate Disruption ........................................... ................. 34 Notes .................................................................................................... 36 ii EXECUTIVEINTRODUCTION SUMMAR Y If we do not reduce heat-trapping America's best beach town. pollutants, a disrupted climate will Shenandoah National Park is the crown jewel of harm the natural and cultural resources Virginia's wildlands and a rarity in the eastern that make Jamestown, Chincoteague, United States – an extensive wilderness oasis and Shenandoah such special places. within easy reach of crowded urban centers. Nearly 40% of the park is congressionally designated as wilderness, where disruptive his profile details and documents the human influences are strictly limited. The park's Tparticular threats that a changed climate signature resource is its forests, which cover poses to three special places in Virginia: 93% of the park and are among the nation's Jamestown, a part of Colonial National Historical greatest biological riches. When the forests are Park (NHP); Chincoteague National Wildlife ablaze with the colors of fall, they are a magnet Refuge (NWR); and Shenandoah National Park. to many; park visitation is always at its peak in How these special places could be harmed the weeks that leaf color reaches its peak. illustrates why human-caused climate disruption is considered the greatest threat ever to our Virginia's economy is at stake as human- national parks and wildlife refuges. caused climate change affects these special places. (See section 2.) Drawn by their natural These three special places deserve particular and historic wonders, nearly six million people a attention. (See Section 1.) They show how year visit them, adding over $200 million in much Virginia has at stake, from its coasts to its spending to Virginia's economy and supporting mountains and from its natural and cultural over 4,000 jobs. But these contributions to resources to its economy, as people alter the Virginia’s economy are threatened by how climate. And these three special places are climate disruption puts at risk the natural and extraordinarily important not just to Virginians cultural resources that draw visitors to these but also to Americans everywhere. special places. Jamestown is where our colonial history began, More heat is among the most obvious impacts with the first permanent European settlement in of human-caused climate change. (See Section what became the original colonies and then the 3.) In a new analysis done for this profile, United States. It also is where both representa- downscaled local projections from 16 climate tive democracy and slavery in America began. models show how Jamestown, Chincoteague, Surely no other single spot of land has been the and Shenandoah may get hotter by the middle of site of so many crucial beginnings of what this century and near the century's end. The became our nation. results are shown in Table ES-1 on the next page. In a lower-emissions scenario, Jamestown Chincoteague NWR, primarily on the southern and Chincoteague could be 3.8°F hotter by end of Assateague Island on Virginia's Atlantic century's end and Shenandoah could be 4.2°F coast and also including smaller nearby tracts, hotter. In a higher-emissions scenario, has more than 14,000 acres of beach, forest, Jamestown and Chincoteague could be 7.2°F and marsh habitats that are home to a hotter and Shenandoah 8.1°F hotter. spectacular variety of migratory birds and other animals. More than just a wildlife sanctuary, With the region’s largest temperature increases though, it offers an undeveloped, natural beach projected for the summer, intolerable heat may that is the major draw for most refuge visitors – become a real problem at Jamestown and and has prompted the adjacent town of perhaps Chincoteague. The scorching heat of Chincoteague, Virginia, to be identified as the summer of 2010 offers a foretaste of what iii Projected Future Temperature Increases Lower Future Higher Future Emissions Emissions 2040-2059 2080-2099 2040-2059 2080-2099 Jamestown Average of 16 projections 3.1° 4.3° 3.8° 7.2° Range of projections 1.7° to 4.1° 2.2° to 5.8° 2.6° to 5.0° 4.0° to 9.3° Chincoteague Average of 16 projections 3.1° 4.3° 3.8° 7.2° Range of projections 1.7° to 4.2° 2.2° to 5.8° 2.5° to 5.0° 4.2° to 9.4° Shenandoah Average of 16 projections 3.5° 4.8° 4.2° 8.1° Range of projections 1.7° to 4.5° 2.3° to 6.7° 2.6° to 5.7° 4.4° to 10.8° Table ES-1. In degrees Fahrenheit. See pages 6-7 for a detailed explanation. may come – but a mild one. Climate projections been the hottest-ever summer of 2010. For done for this profile indicate that for Jamestown Chincoteague, the normal summer of the 2080s the normal summer of the 2080s may be about may be half again as much above the historic twice as much above the historic average as has average as has been this record-setting one. Summer Temperatures: Historic Averages, 2010, and 2080s Projections 2080s with Historic Difference Higher Difference Average 2010 vs Historic Emissions vs Historic Jamestown area Average mean temperature 76.1° 79.9° + 3.8° 83.2° + 6.9° Average high temperature 87.1° 90.0° + 2.9° N/A N/A Chincoteague area Average mean temperature 73.7° 78.6° + 4.9° 81.2° + 7.5° Average high temperature 81.9° 87.1° + 5.2° N/A N/A Table ES-2. In degrees Fahrenheit. Summer means June 1 - August 31. Data source for historic and 2010 temperatures: Southeast Regional Climate Center. Projections for 2080-2089 are averages of 16 climate models in a higher-emissions scenario; data source: Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, U.S. Bureau of Reclamation, Santa
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