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Real Estate Market Report 20 Real Estate Market Report 14 Baltic States Capitals Vilnius, Riga, Tallinn Realia Group is the region’s largest provider of real estate brokerage, valuation, investment and property management services. Realia Group’s 1 700 real estate professionals serve our clients throughout Finland, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. Total turnover of Realia group in 2013 was €100 million. Ober-Haus Real Estate Advisors is the largest real estate agency operating across the Baltic region including Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. Ober-Haus Real Estate Advisors is a highly experienced provider of the most complete property services including residential and commercial real estate services, property management and property valuation services and has, since 1994, grown to employ over 265 real estate professionals in 22 offices across the region. Ober-Haus Real Estate Advisors is a highly experienced provider of the most complete property services: Helsinki • residential and commercial real estate services; • property management; • investments advisory; • property valuation services; • market research; • consultancy. Tallinn Based on our international experience and knowledge about local market specifics we help our clients make the right choices. It’s so much easier with Ober-Haus! Riga Tallinn: +372 665 9700 www.ober-haus.ee Vilnius Riga: +371 6 728 4544 www.ober-haus.lv Vilnius: +370 5 210 97 00 www.ober-haus.lt 2 www.ober-haus.com Contents Lithuania Country overview 6 Economy 7 Office market 8 Retail market 12 Industrial market 16 Residential market 18 Land market 24 Real estate taxes & legal notes 27 Latvia Country overview 38 Economy 39 Office market 40 Retail market 44 Industrial market 48 Residential market 50 Land market 54 Real estate taxes & legal notes 57 Estonia Country overview 70 Economy 71 Office market 72 Retail market 76 Industrial market 80 Residential market 84 Land market 88 Real estate taxes & legal notes 91 Data charts & other Data charts 100 3 www.ober-haus.com 4 www.ober-haus.com Lithuania 2014 5 www.ober-haus.com Lithuania Country overview Real estate market report 2014 Geography & Social Coordinates: 56 00 N, 24 00 E Area: 65,200 km² Border countries: Belarus, Latvia, Poland, Russia Capital: Vilnius Ethnic groups: Lithuanians 84.1%, Poles 6.6%, Russians 5.8%, other 3.5% Currency Currency: Lithuanian Litas (LTL) Curr. rate: 1 € = 3.4528 LTL Vilnius 2014 Forecasts GDP growth, %: 3.4 GDP per capita, €: 11,900 Private consumption growth, %: 3.9 Average annual inflation, %: 1.6 Unemployment rate, %: 10.5 Avg. monthly gross wage, €: 678 Avg. gross wage annual growth, %: 5.0 Population 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Lithuania 3,212,600 3,183,900 3,142,000 3,052,600 3,003,600 2,971,900 Vilnius 541,600 543,000 543,200 536,100 533,300 537,200 Kaunas 339,500 335,400 329,500 317,300 310,800 306,900 Klaipeda 172,700 170,700 168,100 162,900 160,100 158,500 Siauliai 117,800 116,200 114,500 109,700 107,700 106,500 Panevezys 106,500 104,800 103,100 100,000 98,500 97,300 Macroeconomics 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 GDP growth, % 2.9 -14.7 1.3 5.9 3.6 3.4 GDP per capita, € 10,135 8,427 8,946 10,224 11,025 11,500 Private consumption growth, % 4.0 -17.5 -4.9 4.3 3.2 4.0 Average annual inflation, % 11.1 4.2 1.2 4.1 3.2 1.2 Unemployment rate, % 5.8 13.7 17.8 14.8 13.2 11.8 Average monthly gross wage, € 623 595 576 593 615 646 Average gross wage annual growth, % 19.3 -4.5 -3.2 3.0 3.7 5.0 Retail sales growth, % 4.7 -21.6 -7.1 8.8 4.5 4.5 FDI stock per capita, € 2,894 2,935 3,286 3,667 3,902 4,119 Source: Lithuanian Department of Statistics, Ministry of Finance of Lithuania 6 www.ober-haus.com Economy Real estate market report 2014 LITHUANIAN ECONOMY AT ALL TIME HIGH, LEAVES GREAT RECESSION BEHIND Lithuania’s economy continues to show signs of strength and growth. In 2013 GDP grew 3.4%, after growing 3.6% in 2012. Analysts forecast growth of 3.4% in 2014 and 4.0-4.5% growth in 2015. Average annual inflation in 2013 dropped almost three times compared to 2012, i. e. from 3.2% in 2012 to 1.2% in 2013. Fore- casts are for CPI growth of 1.6% in 2014. Gross wages increased by 6.2% in Lithuania in Q3 2013 (com- pared to Q3 2012), to €668 per month before taxes. The average net monthly after tax wages in Q3 2013 was €517. Salary growth in 2014 is expected to be 4.5-5.0%. Unemployment fell to 10.9% in Q3 of 2013, from as high as 18.3% in 2010. Analysts project 10.5% unemployment in 2014 and 9.0- 10.0% in 2015. Confidence among Lithuanian consumers is increasing. The consumer confidence indicator in December 2013 as compared with December 2012 increased by seven percentage points to negative 9%. The improvement was mainly due to household’s favourable assessment of the country’s economic prospects. After three years of impressive export growth it increased by another 17.1% in first nine months of 2013. Annual increase of constructions costs was 3.8% in November 2013. In this period, the biggest increase was recorded for roads (4.6%) and residential constructions (4.3%). In 2013 retail turnover grow by 4.5%. The biggest increase in turnover was registered by companies selling clothes, textile, footwear, pharmaceutical, medical goods, cosmetics and second-hand goods, which increased by 6-11%. Retail turnover of motor vehicles, technical maintenance and repair works has increased by 10.7%. As of September 2013, direct foreign investment totalled €12.2 bln (2.7% increase compared with September 2012), which is €4,119 per capita. Lithuania hopes to join the euro in 2015, and to qualify all economic criteria like its deficit, which must not exceed 3% of gross domestic product. In the meantime, the litas (LTL), remains pegged to the euro at a rate of 3.4528 litas to one euro. 7 www.ober-haus.com Lithuania Office market Real estate market report 2014 SIX ON-GOING OFFICE PROJECTS, MORE TO COME GDP growth, % SUPPLY SNAPSHOT Q4 2013 12 Developers plan to continue the construction VILNIUS 9 6 of new office buildings in the capital city of 3 0 Lithuania. Two new projects were completed -3 in 2013 bringing 13,900 sqm to the market. At -6 TOTAL OFFICE SPACE: -9 the end of 2013 the total area of modern office -12 482,400 sqm -15 premises (A and B class) stood at 482,400 sqm 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014F gross lettable area (GLA). At the end of 2013, in total there were 86 office buildings in Vilnius, TOTAL OFFICE VACANCY of which as many as 65 were B class. By floor RATE: 22 space, A class constitutes 39% of the total mod- 5.7% 20 ern office premises in Vilnius, and B class 61%. 18 16 Despite to growing competition among VACANT OFFICE SPACE: 14 12 business centres (considering both vacant 27,600 sqm 10 office premises and those under construction), 8 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 developers continue not only to announce but A CLASS OFFICE VACANCY 2014F also to implement their plans in this sector. It is RATE: surely that 2014-2015 will see the completion 2.7% of a further 6 office projects, which is currently 250 k under constructions and will provide the mar- 200 k B CLASS OFFICE VACANCY ket with an additional 55,800 sqm of new office 150 k RATE: space. 100 k 7.6% 50 k There are more potential projects, which developers have announced earlier and which 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 A CLASS OFFICE RENTS 2014F can also be completed in 2014-2015, but it is (sqm/month): likely, that construction works won’t start until pre-lease contracts are signed. €11.50 - €14.50 28 The vision of the previous government of Lithu- 24 B CLASS OFFICE RENTS ania to transform Lithuania into a business ser- 20 (sqm/month): 16 vices centre is gaining momentum. The arrival 12 of major external investors gave a boost to the €7.80 - €10.40 8 4 office market, which since 2010 has significantly TOP OFFICE RENTS 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 contributed to the improvement of the indica- 2014F tors in this sector. In the period between 2008 (sqm/month): and 2012, 15 foreign direct investment projects €15.00 in the services area were implemented in Lithu- 16 ania and served as the basis for establishing 14 ADDITIONAL OFFICE COSTS finance, accounting, IT, and customer service 12 (sqm/month): centres in Lithuania. For example, Barclays bank 10 €3.00 - €5.50 8 opened Technology Centre, which originally 6 employed about 250 people, in Vilnius in 2010. 4 Technology Centre currently employs more 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014F 8 www.ober-haus.com Office market Real estate market report 2014 than 1,100 people working in two modern business centres in Vilnius. ward trend, but a rapid increase should not be expected. The owners Business service centres of well-known companies such as Western who manage previously constructed buildings are about to face the Union, SEB, Danske Bank, CSC and Storebrand have also been success- biggest challenge.
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