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Poland Political Briefing: Polish Internal Politics Joanna Ciesielska-Klikowska

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Poland Political Briefing: Polish Internal Politics Joanna Ciesielska-Klikowska ISSN: 2560-1601 Vol. 16, No. 1 (PL) March 2019 Poland political briefing: Polish Internal Politics Joanna Ciesielska-Klikowska 1052 Budapest Petőfi Sándor utca 11. +36 1 5858 690 Kiadó: Kína-KKE Intézet Nonprofit Kft. [email protected] Szerkesztésért felelős személy: Chen Xin Kiadásért felelős személy: Huang Ping china-cee.eu 2017/01 Polish Internal Politics The beginning of spring brings an increasingly intense election campaign in Poland. Political parties try to persuade the electorate to clearly opt for one of the sides, but they do not avoid at the same time betting on promises and swearing to implement costly social programs. Their effects, though certainly helpful in building Polish middle class, may have devastating effects on the state's budget in the future. Undoubtedly, the imposing pace in the race for winning the series of upcoming elections in Poland (elections to the European Parliament in May 2019, parliamentary elections in autumn 2019, presidential elections in summer of 2020) has the ruling conservative party Law and Justice (Prawo i Sprawedliwość, PiS). The smaller members of the government coalition - the Agreement Party (Porozumienie) and United Poland (Solidarna Polska) - are de facto PiS' fractions created a few years ago by politicians who are very close to and trusted by PiS chairman Jarosław Kaczyński and shape together with PiS one political block. These three parties form a kind of monolith on the right side of the political scene and fill the demand of conservative voters, whose trust in the chairman Kaczyński, Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki and the entire cabinet is consistently high and oscillate around 33-38%. It happens so, among others due to the extensive social support that the right-wing government have introduced in the last three years. PiS tried to make a significant change in the perception of the state's responsibility for citizens, drawing a positive image of the state administration as a guardian for citizens and was increasing expenditures on the implementation of social policy. Because it was often neglected by previous governments in Poland (mainly due to the lack of funding opportunities for this type of programs), its implementation by Beata Szydło and her successor Mateusz Morawiecki proved to be a great propaganda success for PiS. Taking advantage of the good economic situation, societal requirements are continuing and citizens are demanding in recent years to close the gap with other Western European countries, where social spending is much higher, and support for families, single parents or the elderly is noteworthy. The ruling party perfectly senses these social needs and demands and can make political use of them. 1 It was no different on February 24, 2019, when - during the convention of Law and Justice - the chief politicians of this party presented the so-called new program arena. Its main points are called the Kaczyński's 5, that is they consist of 5 postulates to facilitate the lives of average citizens. They include: 1. the extension of "500+" program for the first child (so far, the state support in the form of a monthly benefit in the amount of 500 PLN [120 EUR] was payable for each second and subsequent child in the family) - starting from July this year; 2. help for pensioners, who in May 2019 will become an extra benefit of 1.100 PLN (250 EUR) - it will be a one-time payment; 3. reduction of personal income tax for employees under 26 years of age; 4. restoration of bus connections in smaller cities; 5. increase of employee deductible costs. Kaczyński stressed that these new proposals are a "powerful support for society in cities and in the countryside". As he stated "it is to improve the quality of life, it is to increase our freedom and our equality". Right after they were announced, the proposals caused a stir in the media. Although the requirements were very warmly welcomed by all participants of the PiS convention, including the Minister of Family, Labor and Social Policy Elżbieta Rafalska, analysts indicate that the costs associated with servicing these promises will be extremely high for Poland. Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki himself already indicated during the convention that the promises will bring a spending of a total of 30-40 billion PLN (7-9 billion EUR). This is already a huge cost, but it should be remembered that the 2019 budget act has already been signed and therefore finding a solution to fulfill these promises will be very difficult. That is why in recent weeks, fierce discussions about where the government will find the necessary sum to meet the great expectations are ongoing in the media. The ministers themselves, members of the government and right-wing politicians emphasize that the strategy is well thought out and the successes associated with sealing the so-called VAT loopholes and abolition of tax fraud guarantee the payment of promised benefits. However, most likely, the government will pay off its election promises using the so-called specific budget reserves. In the Polish budget, the reserves are divided into two types: general - which can be spent on any purpose (up to 0.2% of budget expenditures); intentional - which must have clearly defined 2 goals (up to 5% of budget expenditures). It seems very likely that the Minister of Finance - after receiving a positive opinion from the Parliament's finance committee - will change the goal of the intentional reserve, which is currently around 30 billion PLN and would in most cases be sufficient for the implementation of the promises. Finding financing for promises is one thing, but this case also has a reverse side. Namely each of the next governments, even if in the autumn elections the today's opposition would be the winner, will remain a hostage of PiS words. Indeed, the election year and relatively good state finances of the country prompts promises to increase budget spending. Usually in the electoral campaign, parties bid on promises, but the situation in Poland is currently out of control. A threat is created not only for the state budget, but also a real threat of the collapse of thinking about the state as a community of rights and obligations. Of course, the "500+" for the first child is very attractive; an additional pension will definitely be useful and will allow many people to finally feel worthy; and tax cuts for young people will also help in achieving a better start in life. However, in practice it can bring catastrophic consequences in the future - it will start a political pre-election auction on the amount of direct transfers from the public money to private pockets of specific groups. Already today the economic downturn anticipated by economists is ignored by politicians from most parties, and the proposals for increasing spending on social policy also appear on the opposition side - although they are definitely not as bold as PiS' ideas. It must be admitted, however, that the opposition fears PiS's victory and unites its ranks. On February 24, 2019 - just day after the PiS political convention - a number of opposition groups formed the so-called European Coalition (as an alliance before the elections to the European Parliament). It includes the Civic Platform (Platforma Obywatelska, PO), .Modern (.Nowoczesna, .N), Polish People's Party (Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe, PSL), Democratic Left Alliance (Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej, SLD), association Initiative Poland (Inicjatywa Polska) and Green Party (Zieloni). The Kukiz'15 group and the newly-formed Robert Biedroń's Spring movement have not entered the European Coalition so far. But even without these parties it is still a very colorful union, gathering groups representing different needs of voters and various ideals, but the element unconditionally integrating it is the "anti-PiS attitude" as well as the so-called defense of democracy and the place of Poland in the European Union. 3 In fact, all these parties are very diverse, but the goal of victory over PiS - so long in the spring elections to the European Parliament - unites these forces. The latest survey shows that four political formations count in the race for the European elections: Law and Justice Party receiving anticipated 36.1%, the European Coalition becoming 34%, Spring - 11,1%, and Kukiz'15 - 5,9%. Converting the above data into parliamentary mandates (after Brexit Poland will be entitled to have 52 seats), it will turn out that there are 22 PiS members in the European Parliament, 21 representatives of the European Coalition, 6 deputies from Spring and 3 from Kukiz'15. Any other political formations will not cross the electoral threshold. Conclusions The results of many surveys published every few days clearly indicate that Law and Justice will be the winner of the next elections, and the promised support and development of social programs will definitely help to maintain the advantage over competitors. However, the issue is not such a clear-cut, because the coalition of opposition parties is gaining more and more support - though its advantage is described as the fact that it is an "anti-PiS", and so far little is said about its specific program proposals. The elections to the European Parliament are crucial for this moment, but there is no doubt that the PiS convention and the promises made during it began an election campaign for all the upcoming elections. For now, it is the Law and Justice that gives the pace to all political discussions - still it is interesting whether the opposition will keep this pace. 4 .
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