Tickling the Sleeping Dragon's Tail: Should We Resume Nuclear Testing?
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TICKLING THE SLEEPING DRAGON’S TAIL Should We Resume Nuclear Testing? National Security Report Michael Frankel | James Scouras | George Ullrich TICKLING THE SLEEPING DRAGON’S TAIL Should We Resume Nuclear Testing? Michael Frankel James Scouras George Ullrich Copyright © 2021 The Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory LLC. All Rights Reserved. “Tickling the sleeping dragon’s tail” is a metaphor for risking severe consequences by taking an unnecessary provocative action. Its origin can be traced to the last year of the Manhattan Project at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) in 1946. When investigating the critical mass of plutonium, LANL scientists usually brought two halves of a beryllium reflecting shell surrounding a fissile core closer together, observing the increase in reaction rate via a scintillation counter. They manually forced the two half-shells closer together by gripping them through a thumbhole at the top, while as a safety precaution, keeping the shells from completely closing by inserting shims. However, the habit of Louis Slotin was to remove the shims and keep the shells separated by manually inserting a screwdriver. Enrico Fermi is reported to have warned Slotin and others that they would be “dead within a year” if they continued this procedure. One day the screwdriver slipped, allowing the two half-shells to completely close, and the increased reflectivity drove the core toward criticality. Slotin immediately flipped the top half-shell loose with a flick of the screwdriver, but by then he had endured a lethal burst of fast neutrons. He was dead nine days later. Richard Feynman characterized the activities of the critical mass group as “tickling the tail of a sleeping dragon.” NSAD-R-20-098 TICKLING THE SLEEPING DRAGON’S TAIL iii Contents Figures .........................................................................................................................................................................................v Summary ..................................................................................................................................................................................vii Introduction ....................................................................................................................................................... 1 Nuclear Testing Overview ................................................................................................................................ 3 US Nuclear Testing ...........................................................................................................................................................3 A History of Nuclear Test Surprises ......................................................................................................................... 11 Science-Based Stockpile Stewardship and the Certification Process......................................................... 15 Testing Moratoria and Treaties ................................................................................................................................. 17 The Arguments: To Test or Not to Test? .......................................................................................................18 Major Arguments in Favor of Resumption of Testing ...................................................................................... 19 Major Arguments against Resumption of Testing ............................................................................................. 22 Our Bottom Line: To Test or Not to Test? .....................................................................................................27 What Might Change Our Decision? ..............................................................................................................31 Test Readiness ..................................................................................................................................................37 Recommendations ..........................................................................................................................................39 A Final Thought ................................................................................................................................................40 Bibliography ........................................................................................................................................................................... 43 Acknowledgments ............................................................................................................................................................... 49 About the Authors ............................................................................................................................................................... 49 Figures TICKLING THE SLEEPING DRAGON’S TAIL v Figures Figure 1. Worldwide Nuclear Testing ..............................................................................................................................4 Figure 2. US Nuclear Tests 1945–1992 ............................................................................................................................5 Figure 3. Subsidence Craters at the Nevada Test Site with the Sedan Ejecta Crater in the Foreground...6 Figure 4. A Typical Target Chamber for a Horizontal Line-of-Sight Test .............................................................7 Figure 5. Seismic Cavity Decoupling Strength as a Function of Frequency .....................................................8 Figure 6. Sedan Crater at Nevada Test Site Excavated by a Plowshare Test ......................................................9 Figure 7. Castle Bravo Event ............................................................................................................................................ 12 Figure 8. Mk 12 Reentry Vehicle Damage ................................................................................................................... 13 Figure 9. Calculated Electromagnetic Pulse Footprint from a Detonation over the United States ....... 14 Figure 10. Exposure of US Troops during an Atmospheric Test in the 1950s ................................................ 15 Figure 11. Target Chamber of the National Ignition Facility at LLNL with 192 Laser Beams Converging on a Target in the Containment Sphere ....................................................................................... 16 Figure 12. The IMS for Verifying Compliance with the CTBT ............................................................................... 32 Figure 13. 1970 Baneberry Event Venting through Undetected Rock Fissure .............................................. 38 Image credits: Figure 1. Worldwide Nuclear Testing. Data mostly from Arms Control Association, with modifications, “The Nuclear Testing Tally,” fact sheet, last reviewed July 2020,https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/ nucleartesttally. Figure 3. Subsidence Craters at the Nevada Test Site with the Sedan Ejecta Crater in the Foreground. From NNSA (National Nuclear Security Administration) Nevada Field Office,Nevada Test Site Guide, DOE/ NV-715 Rev 1 (Las Vegas: NNSA, March 2005), 58, https://www.nnss.gov/docs/docs_LibraryPublications/ DOENV_715_Rev1.pdf. Figure 4. A Typical Target Chamber for a Horizontal Line-of-Sight Test. From Harold Drollinger, Robert C. Jones, and Thomas F. Bullard, A Historical Evaluation of the U12t Tunnel, Nevada Test Site, Nye County, Nevada, vol. 5, DOE/NV/26383–109 (Las Vegas: NNSA, February 2009), https://doi.org/10.2172/1010604. vi THE JOHNS HOPKINS UNIVERSITY APPLIED PHYSICS LABORATORY Figure 5. Seismic Cavity Decoupling Strength as a Function of Frequency. Reproduced from John R. Murphy and Brian W. Barker, A Comparative Analysis of the Seismic Characteristics of Cavity Decoupled Nuclear and Chemical Explosions, PL-TR-95-2177/SSS-TR-95-14980 (Hanscom Air Force Base, MA: US Air Force Phillips Laboratory, 1995), https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/pdfs/ADA304812.pdf. Figure 6. Sedan Crater at Nevada Test Site Excavated by a Plowshare Test. From NNSA (National Nuclear Security Administration) Nevada Field Office,Nevada Test Site Guide, DOE/NV-715 Rev 1 (Las Vegas: NNSA, March 2005), https://www.nnss.gov/docs/docs_LibraryPublications/DOENV_715_Rev1.pdf. Figure 7. Castle Bravo Event. From Thomas Kunkle and Byron Ristvet,Castle Bravo: Fifty Years of Legend and Lore, A Guide to Off-Site Radiation Exposures, DTRIAC SR-12-001 (Washington, DC: Defense Threat Reduction Agency, January 2013), https://blog.nuclearsecrecy.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/06/ SR-12-001-CASTLE-BRAVO.pdf. Figure 8. Mk 21A Reentry Vehicle Damage after X-Ray Exposure in an Underground Nuclear Test. From Byron Ristvet, “A Brief History of US Nuclear Weapons Testing During the Cold War: 1947–1992,” Defense Threat Reduction Agency briefing, September 11, 2013. Figure 9. Calculated Electromagnetic Pulse Footprint from a Detonation over the United States. Originally from the Department of Defense. Appears in Michael J. Frankel, James Scouras, and George W. Ullrich, The Uncertain Consequences of Nuclear Weapon Use, National Security Report NSAD-R-15-020 (Laurel, MD: Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory, 2015). Figure 10. Exposure of US Troops during an Atmospheric Test in the 1950s. Federal Government of the United States, public domain, via Wikimedia Commons, https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/ File:Exercise_Desert_Rock_I_(Buster-Jangle_Dog)_002.jpg.