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ASEAN Telecom Sector

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ASEAN Telecom Sector Industry Focus ASEAN Telecom Sector Refer to important disclosures at the end of this report DBS Group Research . Equity 2 Jan 2019 Revisiting EVA for future direction STI : 3,053.43 KLCI: 1692.07 JCI : 6194.50 SET : 1563.88 • Economic Valued Added (EVA) has been more potent than earnings in predicting the share price; our EVA- Analysts based predictions in 2014 have largely materialised Sachin MITTAL+65 66823699 [email protected] • Our top picks are companies where capex has TOH Woo Kim+60 32604 3917 peaked,and sharp EVA improvements are not priced in [email protected] • Netlink NBN, Singtel and Axiata Group are our top picks in the region Thailand Research Team EVA is more potent than earnings in predicting share price changes over five years.Earnings growth in the short term is STOCKS often achievedby deploying more capital with diminishing 12-mth returns. However, this does not improve EVA due to higher Price Mkt Cap Target Price Performance (%) capital charge and might lead to a drop inearnings in the LCY US$m LCY 3 mth 12 mth Rating NetLink NBN Trust 0.76 2,168 0.87 (2.6) (8.4) BUY medium term due to rising deprecation. Barring the impact of Singtel 2.94 35,147 3.59 (9.3) (18.1) BUY tail-end events, our EVA-based predictions in 2014 have largely Axiata Group 3.97 8,670 5.05 (12.9) (26.2) BUY materialised. We prefer companies whose (i) capex has peaked, and (ii) big EVA improvements are not priced in. Source: DBS Bank, Bloomberg Finance L.P. Closing price as of 28 Dec 2018 Rising revenue and declining capex are idealbut we see either one missing across the countries. Singapore is likely to witness Regional FY19F Dividend Yield ~5% contraction in mobile revenue in 2019, driven by rising adoption of SIM-only plans, although capex has peaked FY19F Dividend Yield already. TPG’s potentially weak launch in 2Q19F might lead to 7% 7% revenue stabilisation in Singapore from 2020 onwards, leading 6% 6% to street upgrades perhaps. In Indonesia, 7-8% top-line 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% growthlooks promising in 2019,but capex is likely to rise with 3% 3% 4G rollout outside Java. Malaysia is set to see flattish growth in 3% the mobile sector due to a milder competitive environment, while broadband is likely to see pricing edging downwards. Thailand mobile sector might see 2-3% revenue growth in 2019 with ARPU being pressured by unlimited data plans. Netlink NBN, Singtel and Axiata are our top picks in the region. 12 months of FY19F for Singtel and Net Link NBN (Mar YE) Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P., DBS Bank Netlink NBN is trading below its book value despite generating positive EVA with 7% regulatory return on its assets vs 6% WACC. Netlink offers 6.6% yield with 4% distribution CAGR over FY19F-21F. Singtel’s capex is on a downward trend led by lower capex in Australia and the share price implies only 2% EVA CAGR over next-10 years. Singtel offers 10% earnings CAGR over FY19F-21F and fixed annual dividend of 17.5Scts (~6% yield). Axiata’s capex is also on a downward trend,led by lower capex at Celcom and its share price implies only slightly positive EVA from 2020 onwards. Axiata offers over 30% earnings CAGR over FY18F-20F led by Celcom and XL Axiata– and offers 4% yield. Potential catalysts are monetisation of stakes in edotco and Idea-Vodafone. ed: CK / sa: JC, CW, CS Industry Focus ASEAN Telecom Sector The concept of Economic Value Added There is a formula to value a firm based on EVA Economic Value Added (EVA) is a measure of whether a The difference between the market value and book value of a company is earning better than its cost of capital. A positive firm is called Market Value Added or MVA. EVA indicates that a firm has added value on top of the opportunity cost of capital. MVA = Market Value - Book Value of Equity EVA = Net Operating after Tax (NOPAT) – Capital charge The link between MVA and EVA is as follows: Or EVA = (ROIC – WACC) x Invested Capital MVA = Present Value of Annual EVAs Where Invested Capital = Book Value of Equity plus Net Debt This relationship is reproduced from G. Bennett Stewart III, ROIC = (EBIT – Tax)/(Book Value of Equity + Net Debt) The Quest for Value (HarperCollins, 1991). WACC is the weighted average cost of capital. ROIC is the If ROIC <WACC, a firm should trade lower than book value Return on Invested Capital. ideally. If a firm consistently generates ROIC equal to its cost of capital, then its EVA is zero, suggesting that MVA is also A positive EVA indicates that ROIC is higher than its WACC zero. This implies that the market cap of the firm should be and the firm is creating value. the same as its book value. Similarly, if a company keeps generating high EVA, its market value is likely to be higher EVA can be enhanced by investing more capital into the than its book value. And if a company consistently generates business as long as ROIC exceeds WACC. Even if ROIC is negative EVA (with no hopes of turnaround in the future), its declining but is still higher than WACC, the firm will see market cap is likely to be lower than its book value. higher EVA. A negative EVA indicates that ROIC is below its cost of capital and there is value destruction by the firm. Furthermore, a study by McKinsey found that companies with higher EVAs managed to sustain their outperformance over As ROIC x Invested Capital = Net operating profit after tax the medium term relative to those in the lower end, through (NOPAT) the infusion of more capital into their businesses. As these companies were already generating higher ROICs, the infusion While WACC x Invested Capital = Opportunity cost of capital of more capital helped them grow their EVAs even further. So EVA = NOPAT – Opportunity cost of capital Hence, analysing historical performance of EVAs could provide us with a reasonable expectation of the company’s future EVA EVA has been more potent than earnings in explaining market performance. value changes 2014 vs now – were our predictions correct? In the paper titled “EVA® AND MARKET VALUE” by Stephen F. O’Byrne, Stern Stewart & Co, the authors found a In our report “Economic profit as the guiding light” released significant relationship between changes in EVA and market in January 2014, we used a two-stage growth model to value. More specifically, they observed that 5-year changes in understand the market expectations of growth in EVA. If the EVA explain 55% of 5-year changes in market value, whereas market cap implied >10% EVA CAGR over the next 10 years, 5-year earnings changes explain only 24%. As per their then the stock is considered expensive. If the market cap research, 10-year changes in EVA accounted for 74% of implies less than 4-5% EVA CAGR, then the stock is variation in market value, as compared to the 64% explained considered attractive. Ignoring the structural changes in the by 10-year changes in earnings. markets, such as the threat of the entry of a new operator in Singapore and the high spectrum prices in Thailand weighing on the ROIC of operators, we believe that EVA was a good indicator of future performance and a suitable metric for identifying overvalued opportunities in the region. Page 2 Industry Focus ASEAN Telecom Sector Counters with high MVA/EVA valuations have dissappointed the market Sources: DBS Bank, Reuters, Companies Benchmark indices – Reuters Thailand wireless telecom index, Reuters Indonesia telecom services index, Reuters Malaysia telecom services index (all indices are on total return basis) We revisit this exercise in 2018, to understand market future. However, for Indonesia, we use 2019 as the base year, expectations of growth in EVA for regional counters and have a as operators were negatively impacted in 1H18 due to the pre- re-look at the market valuations of counters under our paid SIM registration period and we think that 2019 would be coverage. We use a two-stage growth model to understand the better reflective of future market conditions. market expectations of growth in EVA. Key risks to our view For the first stage, we assume that companies can grow their EVA at a constant rate over the next 10 years. After 10 years, Tail-end events could distort predictions based on EVA. we assume terminal EVA growth rates of 0% in Singapore, Predictions based on EVA ignore potential structural changes in 1.5% in Malaysia and 2% in both Thailand and Indonesia. the marketplace, regulatory issues and other tail-end events, Based on the existing market cap of companies, we figure out which could result in severe disparities between predictions the implied EVA CAGR over the next 10 years using the based on EVA and actual performance. For instance, the relationship between MVA and EVA.We then compare the potential entry of a new player in Singapore and the resultant implied EVA CAGR with historical growth rates to see if price competition led to severe declines in the profitability and expectations are too high or low from a historical perspective. EVAs of Singapore operators, thus distorting previous We also use the MVA/EVAas a metric to assess the sensibility of predictions based on EVA. High spectrum prices weighed on the the current market valuations of counters under our coverage. ROIC of Thai operators, thereby distorting predictions made based on EVA.
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