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The Aviation Industry Leaders Report 2019: Tackling headwinds www.aviationnews-online.com www.kpmg.ie/aviation GROWTH FRONTIERS NEW YORK 2019 16th-18th October 2019 Intercontinental New York Barclay, New York, USA Growth Frontiers Conference 40 under 40 & Aviation 100 Americas Awards Intercontinental New York Barclay, New York Intercontinental New York Barclay, New York 17th-18th October 2019 17th October 2019 For more information and bookings contact: [email protected] or call +44 (0) 1782 619 888 NEW-YORK-2019.indd 1 15/01/2019 10:07 NEW YORK CONTENTS 3 Foreword 4 Executive Summary 8 The State of the Aviation Industry 11 Regional optimism levels 28 Aviation Finance 46 Aircraft Market 54 Digital Transformation 56 Final Thoughts THE AVIATION INDUSTRY PRODUCTION AND ONLINE PUBLISHER LEADERS REPORT 2019 Dino D’Amore Aviation News Ltd [email protected] Registered in England & Wales: 7351543 EDITOR & AUTHOR CONFERENCES & EVENTS Registered address: Victoria Tozer-Pennington Louise Abbots Suite 1, First Floor, Parklands, 1 Lyme Drive, [email protected] [email protected] Trent Vale, Stoke-On-Trent, ST4 6NW CONTRIBUTORS Lauren Eldershaw VAT number: GB 102 4185 61 Tom Woods [email protected] Copyright 2019 Aviation News Ltd ADVERTISING & SPONSORSHIP ENQUIRIES SUBSCRIPTION ENQUIRIES Airline Economics (Print) ISSN 2045-7154 Philip Tozer-Pennington Annual subscription: Airline Economics (Online) ISSN 2045-7162 [email protected] £265 (+VAT where applicable) John Pennington All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be repro- Guy Helliker [email protected] duced by any means whatsoever without express permission of [email protected] the Publisher. Although great care has been taken in the com- DIGITAL ISSUE pilation of this Airline Economics Research publication, Aviation Ted Tomlin Digital version production by News Ltd or KPMG do not take any responsibility for the views [email protected] Symbian Print Intelligence expressed herein. 1 Airline Economics Aviation Industry Leaders Report 2019 www.airlineeconomics.co FOREWORD CONTRIBUTORS TO THE 2019 AVIATION INDUSTRY LEADERS REPORT Ali Ben Lmadani, CEO, ABL Aviation Khanh Tran, CEO, Aviation Capital Group Aengus Kelly, CEO, AerCap Fred Browne, CEO, Aergo Capital Mike Inglese, CEO, Aircastle John Plueger, CEO & President, Air Lease Corporation Robert Neal, Vice President, Fleet Planning & Corporate Finance, Allegiant Travel Company Arnaud Fiscel, Head of Transportation, Corporate Banking Department, Bank of China (UK) Robert Martin, CEO & Managing Director, BOC Aviation Bertrand Dehouck, Managing Director – Head of Aviation EMEA, BNP Paribas Mike Poon, CEO, CALC Robert Korn, President, Carlyle Aviation Partners (formerly Apollo Aviation Group) Peter Chang, CEO, CDB Aviation Jennifer Villa Tennity, President, Aviation Lending, CIT Firoz Tarapore, CEO, DAE Capital Vicente Alava Pons, Managing Director, Aviation Finance EMEA, DVB Bank Jon Sharp, former President and CEO, Engine Lease Finance Craig Fraser, Managing Director, Corporate Ratings, FitchRatings Dr. Martin Bouzaima, CEO, FPG Amentum Declan Kelly, Chief Commercial Officer, GE Capital Aviation Services (GECAS) Ruth Kelly, CEO, Goshawk Alok Wadhawan, Head of Aviation Finance, Investec Winston Yin, Korea Development Bank Marjan Riggi, Senior Managing Director & Anthony Nocera, Senior Managing Director, ABS Commercial, Kroll Bond Rating Agency Vinodh Srinivasan, Managing Director and Co-Head of the Structured Credit Group Mizuho Securities Olivier Trauchessec, Managing Director - Head of Transportation Americas, MUFG Bank Bénédicte Bedaine-Renault, Head of Aviation Finance EMEA, Natixis Frank Wulf, Global Head Aircraft Finance, Norddeutsche Landesbank Hani Kuzbari, Managing Director, Novus Aviation Capital James Meyler, CEO, ORIX Aviation Andy Shankland, Executive Director, and Craig Segor, CEO and founder, Plane View Partners Betsy Snyder, Director, S&P Global Ratings Peter Barrett, CEO, SMBC Kieran Corr, Global Head of Aviation Finance, Standard Chartered Dan Coulcher, SVP & Chief Commercial Officer - EMEA, Willis Lease Finance Steve Hannahs, CEO & Managing Director, Wings Capital Partners 2 Airline Economics The Aviation Industry Leaders Report 2019 www.airlineeconomics.co AIRLINE ECONOMICS RESEARCH TACKLING HEADWINDS We are delighted to present you with our Aviation Industry Leaders Report 2019: Tackling Headwinds. The report captures the views of over 40 industry leaders across the leasing, airline and banking markets and includes the views of the rating agencies covering the sector. The aviation industry has been thoroughly enjoying an extended bull run for the past decade. Airlines have had access to cheap finance as tough competition pushed down lease rates and debt costs. Lessors, while grappling with a very competitive marketplace with many new entrants, have also been capitalising on the availability of cheap finance and the demand for additional lift as passenger numbers continue to TOM WOODS PARTNER grow. Banks too are busy funding deliveries, and despite depressed margins and fierce KPMG IRELAND competition, continue to find innovative ways to add value. +353 1 410 2589 [email protected] How long more can this bull run? It has been the question asked for the last number of Tom is the Head of Aviation Finance and years. The overall impression heading into 2019 is that while industry fundamentals Leasing in KPMG Ireland and advises some remain strong – in particular high passenger growth, though cooling, – there are of the largest aviation companies globally as well as investors on their investment in the signs that building geopolitical, macroeconomic and industry headwinds will impact aviation sector. KPMG Ireland has 20 Partners the industry over the next 24 months. Varying political tensions and potential trade advising the aviation sector across audit, tax, deal advisory and management consulting. wars, rising interest rates, volatile oil costs, a strong US dollar, slowing economies, The firm has been involved in almost every increasing production rates, and MRO and infrastructure capacity constraints are significant transaction in the sector. Tom has spoken at many global aviation conferences all impacting the aviation sector. This report takes a look at how these headwinds are on worldwide tax developments affecting the impacting the leasing, airline and banking markets today and considers the outlook industry. He has also written many articles on aviation related issues. for the rest of the year. In summary, it is generally accepted that the industry cycle has peaked and is heading on a slow downward trajectory. Passenger demand, however, is not in contractionary territory. While growth is slowing it is off an increasing base and so absolute demand remains robust for now. As the economic environment becomes more challenging, weaker airlines will come under increased pressure. Those airlines that have used the elongated upcycle as a chance to strengthen their financial position will be able to weather the choppier environment ahead. Some liquidity is expected to leave the financing market as yields improve in other sectors. This could result in tighter financing terms in future. Banks are preparing for the impact of Basel IV, which could increasingly affect their ability to be competitive in the face of strong capital markets interest and banks that may not have to implement these rules. Some lessors see a weakening operating environment as a greater opportunity for value acquisitions. The stronger, more experienced leasing companies are expected to capitalise the most on these opportunities. So 2019 brings with it a more cautious outlook with greater potential for more pronounced volatility and, with it, opportunity. I would like to thank all of those who participated for their time and their insights. I hope you enjoy the read. About this report Airline Economics and KPMG interviewed major aviation industry leaders in a series of in-depth interviews that delved deep into the real issues impacting the commercial aviation industry. Airline Economics and KPMG conducted in-person interviews with 42 senior industry executives at leasing companies, banks and airlines, 32 of which were videoed at Airline Economics Growth Frontiers events located around the world between October and December 2018. The full video interviews are available online at http://www.aviationnews-online.com/aviation-industry-leaders-report/. The themes discussed in this report were presented at Airline Economics Growth Frontiers Dublin 2018 on January 21, 2018, which can also be viewed by subscribers and delegates at www.aviationnews-online.com after the event. KPMG and Airline Economics would like to thank all of the industry leaders and experts that contributed to this report for their time. www.airlineeconomics.co Airline Economics The Aviation Industry Leaders Report 2019 3 Aviation Industry Leaders Report 2019: Tackling Headwinds Our Aviation Industry Leaders Report 2019: Tackling Headwinds examines the current state of the aviation market, including financing trends, new aircraft production and entry-into-service issues as well as the impact of new technologies. This executive summary provides a snapshot of the broader report, highlighting the critical issues and challenges facing the industry over the next 12 months. Over the past decade, alongside the general improvement in the global economy, airlines have grown in profitability,
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