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Luxembourg As an Aspiring Platform for the Aircraft Engine Industry A Service of Leibniz-Informationszentrum econstor Wirtschaft Leibniz Information Centre Make Your Publications Visible. zbw for Economics Koster, Peter Research Report Luxembourg as an aspiring platform for the aircraft engine industry EIKV-Schriftenreihe zum Wissens- und Wertemanagement, No. 13 Provided in Cooperation with: European Institute for Knowledge & Value Management (EIKV), Luxemburg Suggested Citation: Koster, Peter (2016) : Luxembourg as an aspiring platform for the aircraft engine industry, EIKV-Schriftenreihe zum Wissens- und Wertemanagement, No. 13, European Institute for Knowledge & Value Management (EIKV), Rameldange This Version is available at: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/147292 Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen: Terms of use: Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Documents in EconStor may be saved and copied for your Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden. personal and scholarly purposes. Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle You are not to copy documents for public or commercial Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich purposes, to exhibit the documents publicly, to make them machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen. publicly available on the internet, or to distribute or otherwise use the documents in public. Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, If the documents have been made available under an Open gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort Content Licence (especially Creative Commons Licences), you genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. may exercise further usage rights as specified in the indicated licence. www.econstor.eu EIKV‐Schriftenreihe zum Wissens‐ und Wertemanagement Luxembourg as an aspiring platform for the aircraft engine industry Peter Koster Band 13 IMPRESSUM EIKV‐Schriftenreihe zum Wissens‐ und Wertemanagement Herausgeber: André Reuter, Heiko Hansjosten, Thomas Gergen © EIKV Luxemburg, 2016 European Institute for Knowledge & Value Management (EIKV) c/o M. André REUTER ‐ 27d, rue du Scheid L‐6996 Rameldange ‐ GD de Luxembourg [email protected] www.eikv.org Luxembourg as an aspiring platform for the aircraft engine industry Peter Koster 2 Table of Contents PREFACE ...................................................................................................................................................................... 4 TABLE OF FIGURES: ................................................................................................................................................. 4 ACRONYMS .................................................................................................................................................................. 5 1. LUXEMBOURG FOR AVIATION ........................................................................................................................ 8 2. OBJECTIVE ............................................................................................................................................................ 10 3. ASSIGNMENT ANALYSIS ................................................................................................................................... 10 3.1. BACKGROUND ...................................................................................................................................................... 10 3.2. APPROACH STRATEGY ......................................................................................................................................... 11 4. AIRCRAFT LEASING & ENGINE LEASING. ................................................................................................... 12 4.1. OUTLOOKS OF ASSET EXPLOITATION ................................................................................................................ 14 4.2. GROWTH PROJECTIONS ....................................................................................................................................... 16 4.3. THE ECONOMIC FOOTPRINT OF AVIATION ........................................................................................................ 18 4.4. CORRELATION OF GDP AND AIR TRAFFIC PASSENGERS .................................................................................. 20 4.5. SELECTIVE OPPORTUNITIES FOR LUXEMBOURG ............................................................................................... 22 5. ENGINES ARE THE BETTER CHOICE ............................................................................................................ 24 5.1. ENGINE LEASE MARKET IS GROWING FASTER .................................................................................................... 25 5.2. THE ENGINE VALUE EQUATION ........................................................................................................................... 26 5.3. ENGINES HAVE HIGHER LEVEL OF STANDARDISATION THAN AIRCRAFTS ........................................................ 27 5.3. ENGINES HAVE MORE VALUE GENERATOR.......................................................................................................... 28 5.3. OEMS DOMINATE THE MARKET ......................................................................................................................... 29 5.5. REGULATION IS REQUIRED .................................................................................................................................. 31 6. AN EXPANDING OPPORTUNITY ON ENGINE LEASE MARKET ............................................................. 32 6.1. INCREASE OF AIRCRAFT OPERATING LEASES ..................................................................................................... 32 6.2. SPARE ENGINE LEASES ......................................................................................................................................... 32 7. ENGINES ARE ATTRACTIVE AVIATION ASSETS. ...................................................................................... 34 7.1. LONG ECONOMIC LIFE .......................................................................................................................................... 34 7.2. UNIT PRICE IS LOWER THAN THE AIRCRAFT PRICE ........................................................................................... 35 7.3. CASH FLOWS ARE MORE PREDICTABLE .............................................................................................................. 35 7.4. ENGINE VALUES ARE MORE STABLE THAN AIRCRAFT VALUES FOR LIFE. ......................................................... 35 7.5. END OF LIFE ENGINE VALUE IS GREATER THAN THE AIRCRAFT VALUE ............................................................ 35 3 8. ENGINES WIN THE RESIDUAL VALUE BATTLES ...................................................................................... 35 8.1. TOTAL ENGINE VALUES AS % OF TOTAL AIRCRAFT VALUE ............................................................................... 35 8.2. DIFFERENT INTERFACES WITH DIFFERENT PERSPECTIVES .............................................................................. 36 8.3. THE ENGINE LESSORS MARKET PLACE .............................................................................................................. 37 8.4. SPARE ENGINES DEMANDS GROWTH IN PARALLEL ........................................................................................... 38 PART TWO ................................................................................................................................................................ 39 9. HISTORY OF LUXEMBOURG AND AVIATION ............................................................................................ 39 9.1. THE ROOT CAUSE ................................................................................................................................................ 39 9.2. LUXEMBOURG AIRPORT DEVELOPMENT ............................................................................................................ 41 10. LUXEMBOURG’S SHADOWED DEVELOPMENT ...................................................................................... 42 11. PLATFORM COMPETITION .......................................................................................................................... 44 11.1. AVIATION LEASING IN IRELAND ....................................................................................................................... 44 11.2. WEAKNESS OF IRELAND AS A PLATFORM ....................................................................................................... 46 11.2. ASSET MANAGEMENT COMPETENCE ................................................................................................................ 47 12. OPPORTUNITIES FOR LUXEMBOURG....................................................................................................... 47 12.1. SOURCING FINANCE........................................................................................................................................... 47 12.2. ENHANCED EQUIPMENT TRUST CERTIFICATES (EECT) ............................................................................... 48 12.2.1. EETC SECURITISATION ................................................................................................................................................. 48 12.2.2. PORTFOLIO SECURITISATION ......................................................................................................................................
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