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Asia Aviation Sector Aircraft Leasing: Asian Players Taking Flight 19 SECTOR BRIEFING number DBS Asian Insights DBS Group38 Research • April 2017 Asia Aviation Sector Aircraft Leasing: Asian Players Taking Flight 19 DBS Asian Insights SECTOR BRIEFING 38 02 Asia Aviation Sector Aircraft Leasing: Asian Players Taking Flight Paul Yong CFA Equity Analyst DBS Group Research [email protected] Singapore Research Team DBS Group Research [email protected] Produced by: Asian Insights Office • DBS Group Research go.dbs.com/research @dbsinsights [email protected] Goh Chien Yen Editor-in-Chief Jean Chua Managing Editor Geraldine Tan Editor Martin Tacchi Art Director 19 DBS Asian Insights SECTOR BRIEFING 38 03 04 Investment Summary 06 Global Air Traffic on Long-Term Growth Path 13 Aircraft Demand and Fleet Development 19 Aircraft Financing 24 Aircraft Leasing: Background 27 Strategies Commonly Employed by Top Lessors 32 Emergence of Aircraft Lessors in Asia Chinese Lessors to the Fore Japanese Lessors: Emerging Once More Other Non-Traditional Lessors Hong Kong’s Tycoons Join the Party Potential Transactions in Aviation Leasing Spac Draw of Aircraft Leasing 44 Valuations and Equity Picks 47 Key Risk Factors 50 Appendix Aircraft Leasing 101 What’s Driving the Popularity of Aircraft Leasing? Critical Success Factors for Aircraft Lessors Drivers of Aircraft Value DBS Asian Insights SECTOR BRIEFING 38 04 Investment Summary Rising global air ccording to the International Air Transport Association (IATA), global air passenger traffic passenger traffic rose 5.9% year-on-year in 2016 and is projected to grow 5.1% in 2017. Based on Boeing’s estimates, global revenue passenger kilometres (RPKs) will almost triple by 2035 to reach 17,093 billion passenger-kilometres A(p-km), which represents a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.8% for a 20-year growth period from 2015 to 2035. Growing middle class Looking ahead, the expanding middle class is expected to drive growth in global spending. driving demand The middle-class population is forecast to expand almost 73% from 2.8 billion in 2015 to 4.8 billion by 2035. Supported by firm global economic growth, a rising middle-class population, higher expected spending power, globalisation, and greater air connectivity, we expect trips undertaken per-capita (and thus propensity to travel) to remain on a steady uptrend over the long term, with strong growth driven by emerging markets such as China and India. Robust demand for Based on Boeing’s estimates, the global fleet will more than double to 45,240 by 2035 new aircraft to match increased aviation demand. Of the 22,510 in-service aircraft in 2015, 18,330 are slated to be retired from service while another 1,440 are expected to be converted to freighters to further extend their useful lives. This means that Boeing expects about 39,620 new aircraft to be delivered between 2015 and 2035, and would require financing of at least US$3 trillion in 2015 dollar terms. From less than 1% share in the 1970s, aircraft leasing has since grown its market share of the global fleet to over 40% and has held steady at around 42% in the last decade. Aircraft lessors play an important role in financing the substantial funding requirements for aircraft, and distributing aircraft capacity more efficiently globally. Asian lessors join the Today, five of the 12 largest aircraft lessors hail from Asia, and a sixth is from Australia. fray Most of their growth were through the acquisition of another leasing company, and in the case of HNA Group’s, two – Avolon and CIT. Chinese lessors figure prominently among the top ten, including the largest player Avolon/CIT while Japanese lessor SMBC Aviation is also among the top five lessors globally. Buoyant deal activity Asian lessors are being linked to all manner of activity in the sector, including 1) acquisition of aircraft portfolios such as AirAsia’s leasing arm and Ansett Worldwide Aviation Services (AWAS), and 2) potential initial public offerings of lessors such as Minsheng Financial Leasing or the leasing arms of the Chinese banks, following the listing of CDB Financial DBS Asian Insights SECTOR BRIEFING 38 05 Leasing and BOC Aviation in Hong Kong. Meanwhile, even Hong Kong’s tycoons such as Cheong Kong’s Li Ka-shing and Chow Tai Fook’s Dato Dr. Cheng Yu-tung have amassed aircraft-leasing assets in recent years, and are looking to grow their aircraft portfolios. Listed aircraft lessors are trading at an average of 8.9x (consensus) current earnings, declining to 7.7x forward earnings. BOC Aviation is the cheapest in terms of price-to- earnings at 7.7x currently. Other than China Aircraft Leasing (CALC), which is trading at 1.9x current price-to-book value (P/B), against a projected current return-on-equity of over 22%, the rest of the Hong Kong-listed aircraft lessors are generally trading at around 1x current P/B. While on average the sector only offers a dividend yield of 2.5%, both CALC and BOC Aviation are offering higher–than-average prospective dividend yields of over 6% and 3.8%, respectively. Our top pick is BOC Aviation (Buy, target price of HK$54.10) and we also recently initiated coverage on CALC with a Buy call and current target price of HK$12. Key risks The most common concern for investors seems to be that of aircraft oversupply. Our view is that given the duopoly in aircraft manufacturing, aircraft supply-demand should be balanced in the long term as it is in the interest of the original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) to promote such a situation. In the short term, we also see the aircraft supply- demand environment as relatively benign as 1) global load factors are near historic highs; 2) OEM production growth rate is matching expected demand growth; 3) order books are strong; and 4) aircraft storage/retirement are already at low rates. The next common concern – interest-rate risk. A key feature or driver of an aircraft lessor’s earnings is the net spread (the difference between average yield on aircraft portfolio and average cost of debt) that a lessor earns. In an environment of rising interest rates, investors may have reason to fret. Generally speaking, aircraft lessors are well aware of this risk and manage it via 1) natural hedging where fixed-rate leases are funded by fixed- rate debt, and floating-rate leases are matched with floating-rate debt; 2) active interest- rate hedging using derivatives such as caps and swaps; and 3) trading (sale) of aircraft in the portfolio. DBS Asian Insights SECTOR BRIEFING 38 06 Global Air Traffic on Long-Term Growth Path Rosy outlook for global ccording to the International Air Transport Association (IATA), global air aviation passenger traffic rose 5.9% year-on-year in 2016 and is projected to grow 5.1% in 2017. Based on Boeing’s estimates, global revenue passenger kilometres (RPKs) will almost triple by 2035; reaching 17,093 billion passenger-kilometres A(p-km) which represents a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.8% over a 20-year growth period from 2015 to 2035. Diagram 1 : World traffic flow forecast (RPKs in billions) for the next 20 years Source: Boeing, DBS Key drivers of air traffic demand: 1. Prevailing economic conditions, which dictate travel demand needs. 2. Improving inter- and intra-region route connectivity, helped by liberalisation of airspace and low-cost carriers. 3. Favourable demographic trends (i.e. population growth, rising middle-class population, and higher discretionary spending). DBS Asian Insights SECTOR BRIEFING 38 07 Diagram 2 : Drivers for air traffic and aircraft fleet growth Increased Demand for Fleet Source: Airbus, DBS Anticipating a world GDP growth rate of 2.9% per annum (p.a.) over the next two decades – which should help spur trade flows, human capital movement, tourism, and ultimately, demand for global air travel, Boeing predicts air passenger traffic will grow at an average of 4.8% p.a. into 2035. This is supported by historical trends, where global air travel has consistently outpaced world GDP growth at 1.5x to 2x. Diagram 3: Breakdown of global annual GDP growth forecasts by region (2015-2035) Source: Boeing, DBS Asia-Pacific to drive Between 2016 and 2035, global growth is expected to be largely driven by the Asia-Pacific global growth region, which is poised to log an annual GDP growth rate of about 4.1%, far exceeding the global average of 2.9%. Following closely behind are the Middle East’s estimated 3.8% and Africa’s 3.7%. Better connectivity, The gradual liberalisation of airspaces through open skies and bilateral air transport agreements, more mega hubs coupled with the expansion of low-cost carriers, have played a central role in driving inter- and intra-region air connectivity and the formation of new mega aviation hubs. DBS Asian Insights SECTOR BRIEFING 38 08 To illustrate, Shanghai Pudong Airport is now ranked the eighth busiest airport (by passengers) in 2016 from the 34th position in 2009 after passenger traffic more than doubled from nearly 32 million in 2009 to over 66 million in 2016. Over this period, the market shares of low-cost carriers in China also strengthened significantly from around 8% in December 2009 to more than 20% in December 2016. Airbus estimates that by 2035, the number of aviation mega-cities (which it defines as cities with more than 10,000 daily long-haul passengers) will rise to 93, from 55 in 2015. Banking on the middle Looking ahead, global spending power will largely be driven by the growing middle-class class population, which is forecast to expand by almost 73% from 2.8 billion in 2015 to 4.8 billion by 2035.
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