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Russian Military Thinking and Threat Perception – a Finnish View MAANPUOLUSTUSKORKEAKOULU STRATEGIAN LAITOS JULKAISUSARJA 4: TYÖPAPEREITA No 36 NATIONAL DEFENCE UNIVERSITY DEPARTMENT OF STRATEGIC AND DEFENCE STUDIES SERIES 4: WORKING PAPERS No 36 RUSSIAN MILITARY THINKING AND THREAT PERCEPTION – A FINNISH VIEW STEFAN FORSS MAANPUOLUSTUSKORKEAKOULU Strategian laitos HELSINKI 2010 Stefan Forss: Russian Military Thinking and Threat Perception – A Finnish View Maanpuolustuskorkeakoulu, Strategian laitos Julkaisusarja 4: työpapereita No 36 National Defence University, Department of Strategic and Defence Studies Series 4: Working Papers No 36 Recent publications in pdf-format: http://www.mpkk.fi/fi/tutkimus-opetus/julkaisut/stratl/ Cover design: Janne Kopu ISSN 1236-4983 Maanpuolustuskorkeakoulu – National Defence University Strategian laitos – Department of Strategic and Defence Studies Edita Prima Oy Helsinki 2010 RUSSIAN MILITARY THINKING AND THREAT PERCEPTION – A FINNISH VIEW Stefan Forss “The three main security challenges for Finland today are Russia, Russia and Russia. And not only for Finland, but for all of us.”1 This quote is from a speech by Finnish Minister of Defence Jyri Häkämies in Washington in September 2007. His remarks were immediately strongly criticised as inap- propriate and it was pointed out that his view did not represent the official position of the Finnish Government. Mr. Häkämies seemed, however, to gain in credibility a month later, when a senior Russian diplomat gave a strongly worded presentation about the security threats in the Baltic Sea area in a seminar organised by the Finnish National Defence University and later ap- peared several times on Finnish television.2 The message sent was that Finn- ish membership in NATO would be perceived as a military threat to Russia. This peculiar episode caused cold shivers, as it reminded us of unpleasant experiences during the post-war period. The Russian military force build- up and the war in Georgia in August 2008 was the ultimate confirmation for all of Russia’s neighbours, that the Soviet-style mindset is not a thing of the past. Russia’s self-image and perception of Yuri Andropov, was the mastermind be- security hind the unsuccessful coup attempt in August 1991 which aimed at saving the In order to understand Russian percep- Soviet Union, but instead contributed tions of security one needs to take a clos- significantly to its rapid and unexpected er look at the background and mindset demise. He was subsequently convicted of Russia’s ruling elite. Prime Minister of treason and put in jail, but was re- Vladimir Putin is the key person to con- leased in 1994. Reuters reported the fol- sider. His relation to the last Soviet KGB lowing after the death of Kryuchkov in chief, General Vladimir A. Kryuchkov is November 2007: especially interesting. Kryuchkov, a pu- “Russian media said the former gen- pil and successor to former KGB chief eral sometimes gave advice to President ___________________________________________ ___________________________________________ 1 Jyri Häkämies, FINLAND: SIMILAR YET DIF- sian Embassy to Helsinki immediately distanced FERENT - Finland’s Perspectives on European itself from Dr. Kozin’s views and announced that Security Issues, CSIS Statesmen’s Forum Speech, he would return promptly to Moscow. Dr. Kozin, Center for Strategic and International Studies, however, seems to have acted on direct instruc- Washington, D.C., 6 September 2007 [http://csis. tions from high-level conservative superiors in org/files/media/csis/events/070906_statesmens_ Moscow, and eventually left Finland, not immedi- forum.pdf]. ately, but in normal order when his tenure came to 2 Counsellor, Dr. Vladimir Kozin at a seminar an end. See also Keir Giles and Susanna Eskola, organized by the Finnish National Defence Uni- Waking up the Neighbour – Finland, NATO and versity in Helsinki on 10-11 October, 2007. He Russia, Special Series 09/14, Research & Assess- praised Finnish-Russian relations during the Cold ment Branch, Defence Academy of the United War and suggested a strategic partnership be- Kingdom, November 2009, p. 36 [http://www. tween Finland and Russia, and military coopera- da.mod.uk/colleges/arag/document-listings/spe- tion, including joint military exercises. The Rus- cial/09%2814%29%20KGSE%20Web.pdf]. 2 Vladimir Putin, who served as a Soviet The ruling conservative elite in Russia, spy in East Germany while Kryuch- however, sees things rather differently. kov was head of the KGB. Kryuchkov As a former military superpower, still praised Putin for restoring Russian influ- with the capability to destroy the rest of ence and was a frequent guest at Kremlin the world several times over, respect is spy galas under Putin, who brought back what makes a country great. For them, former security service officers to key respect means ability to invoke fear. The positions in the Kremlin.”3 American Russia-expert Strobe Talbott, presently President of the Brookings In- The coup plotters did not succeed in stitution in Washington, outlined Rus- 1991, but they got their man to the top sian security thinking as follows in Au- less than a decade later. Consequently, gust 2008, just after open hostilities in Russia’s self-image of today builds Georgia had ended: upon its Soviet past. “Never forget that our country, the Soviet Union, made the “The more authoritarian – not to mention decisive contribution to the outcome of totalitarian – Russia is, the more it tends World War II – that it was precisely our to assert itself in an intimidating or ag- people who destroyed Nazism and deter- gressive fashion outside of its borders. mined the fate of the world”, President Another point has always been, ... , that Medvedev said in Moscow at the Victory Russia has tended to define its security Day celebrations in May 2009. The pa- – and the Russian word [безопасность], rade itself, with impressively rehearsed ... literally means “absence of danger” – troops, Soviet flags, tanks and now also in a zero-sum way. It has tended to feel mobile strategic nuclear missiles, contin- absolutely secure only when everybody ues the tradition of the Soviet Union. else, particularly those around its bor- ders, feel absolutely insecure.”4 The western perception of security is largely focussed on cooperation, shared This mindset has produced some para- values, responsibilities and mutual re- doxical results. NATO forces in Europe spect among nations. Respect, in the pos- have been reduced to only a fraction of itive sense of the word, is not imposed the manpower and equipment levels at but something that must be earned and the break-up of the Soviet Union, re- is granted on a voluntary basis. The Eu- flecting a dramatically diminished threat ropean integration process, the existence after the end of the Cold War. This has of institutions like the European Union not been very much appreciated in Rus- and NATO, is a result of the free will sia but has instead created uneasiness of peoples. War between member states among the Russian military. The Western has become all but impossible and many behaviour has been interpreted as evi- new members see these institutions as dence of disrespect and indifference with providing solidarity and a guarantee that regard to the capability of the Russian they will never be abandoned again. armed forces, i.e. as outright lack of fear. The fear-factor needed to be addressed. ___________________________________________ ___________________________________________ 3 Reuters, USSR’s hawkish KGB chief Kryuch- 4 The Brookings Institution, The War in Georgia kov dies at 83, November 25, 2007 [http:// – Assessing the Aftermath, pp. 41-42 [http://www. www.reuters.com/article/newsMaps/id- brookings.edu/~/media/Files/events/2008/0814_ USL2521028720071125] georgia/20080814_georgia.pdf] 3 Several means were chosen. Ballistic terest for the Russian nation,” President missile tests were given high profile vis- Medvedev said in September 2008. “We ibility in media and Russian strategic are so close to each other, it would be bombers were sent on long-distance pa- impossible to tear us apart, to say Rus- trols to the vicinity of U.S. and NATO sia has to embark on one path, and our airspace, beginning in 2007 and still go- neighbours on another.” 6 ing on, perhaps even showing capability to intrude into “enemy” airspace.5 Words like these are for obvious reasons not very well received in the former So- This Russian show of force has mostly viet space. In an open letter to U.S. Presi- been dismissed as nostalgic posturing. dent Barack Obama, a large number of Without the massive air support that prominent former Statesmen and politi- Russia lacks at present, these bombers cians from Central and Eastern Europe could not possibly operate in such a way stated their opinion about Russia in July in wartime conditions. That may be true 2009 as follows:7 as far as the United States is concerned, but it is gravely misleading in a Europe- “Our hopes that relations with Russia an perspective. The operational range of would improve and that Moscow would Russia’s long-range strategic cruise mis- finally fully accept our complete sover- siles like Kh-55/RKV-500 (AS-15 Kent) eignty and independence after joining is sufficient to cover all of Europe even NATO and the EU have not been ful- if these weapons were launched safely filled. Instead, Russia is back as a revi- from within Russia’s own territory. sionist power pursuing a 19th-century agenda with 21st-century tactics and What Russia demands is well known: re- methods. At a global level, Russia has spect for the Russian nation, its values become, on most issues, a status-quo and its history, recognition of Russia’s power. But at a regional level and vis-a- legitimate sphere of interest in the post- vis our nations, it increasingly acts as a Soviet space and of its right to defend its revisionist one. It challenges our claims citizens even outside Russia’s borders.
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