Risks of Climate Change with Respect to the Singapore-Malaysia High Speed Rail System

climate

Review Risks of Climate Change with Respect to the Singapore-Malaysia High Speed Rail System

Sazrul Leena Binti Sa’adin 1, Sakdirat Kaewunruen 2,* and David Jaroszweski 3

1 Malaysia Department of Public Work, Ministry of Transport, Kuala Lumpur 50582, Malaysia; [email protected] 2 Department of Civil Engineering, School of Engineering, The University of Birmingham, Birmingham B15 2TT, UK 3 Birmingham Centre for Railway Research and Education, The University of Birmingham, Birmingham B15 2TT, UK; [email protected] * Correspondence: [email protected] or [email protected]; Tel.: +44-01214-142-670

Academic Editor: Yang Zhang Received: 4 August 2016; Accepted: 9 December 2016; Published: 20 December 2016

Abstract: Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and many of the observed changes are unprecedented over the past five decades. Globally, the atmosphere and the ocean are becoming increasingly warmer, the amount of ice on the earth is decreasing over the oceans, and the sea level has risen. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the average increase in global temperature (combined land and surface) between the 1850–1900 period and the 2003–2012 period was 0.78 ◦C (0.72 to 0.85). But should we prepare for such a relatively small change? The importance is not the means of the warming but the considerable likelihood of climate change that could trigger extreme natural hazards. The impact and the risk of climate change associated with railway infrastructure have not been fully addressed in the literature due to the differences in local environmental parameters. On the other hand, the current railway network in Malaysia, over the last decade, has been significantly affected by severe weather conditions such as rainfall, lightning, wind and very high temperatures. Our research findings based on a critical literature review and expert interviews point out the extremes that can lead to asset system failure, degraded operation and ultimately, delays in train services. During flooding, the embankment of the track can be swept away and bridge can be demolished, while during drought, the embankment of the track can suffer from soil desiccation and embankment deterioration; high temperature increases the risk of track buckling and high winds can result in vegetation or foreign object incursion onto the infrastructure as well as exert an additional quasi-static burden. This review is of significant importance for planning and design of the newly proposed high speed rail link between Malaysia and Singapore.

Keywords: railway infrastructure; high-speed rail; tracks; risk; management and monitoring; climate change; global warming; adaptation; operational readiness; project development planning

1. Introduction In recent years, there has been increasing interest to the policy makers to build High Speed Rails (HSRs) worldwide, including Malaysia. To develop this new form of transportation, the Malaysian government needs to ascertain that its new HSR system can cope with and adapt to climate change. In addition, the complexities of climate change and predictions of climate model outputs have introduced an additional measure of uncertainty for railroad operators [1,2]. Extreme weather has affected railway operations and safety, including fatalities, injuries and property damage. Despite climate change posing serious challenges to infrastructure projects, little research has been conducted in Malaysia into how vulnerable it could be, especially for transport infrastructure. It has been widely

Climate 2016, 4, 65; doi:10.3390/cli4040065 www.mdpi.com/journal/climate Climate 2016, 4, 65 2 of 21 recognized that there is a need to integrate the consideration of climate change and its impacts into the development of policies and projects [3]. “Decisions made today—for example, in the creation of new infrastructure or other assets—need to occur in a way which ensures that the outcomes of those decisions are robust enough to cope with, or adapt to, changing climatic conditions in the future” [4]. Although climate change adaptation measures have been proposed to respond to extreme events at a higher level by many researchers [5–10], the infrastructure vulnerabilities and resilience-based design have not been addressed since their real impacts are truly associated with local parameters such as topology, geography, design and maintenance practice, and so on. For example, a reduced train speed will apply when the ambient temperature reaches a certain degree, but more effective rail stress management (such as rail creep adjustment, rail joints, stress-free fasteners, etc.) has not been discussed [10]. This has raised a research question and investigation to better understand the fundamental risks and impact of climate change and corresponding infrastructure vulnerabilities to pertinent extreme conditions. The present risk concept does not provide any specific asset management strategy to meaningfully repair, retrofit or replace any component effectively in a particular region, such as Malaysia [11]. As such, this paper serves to provide pathway for detailed and tailored adaptation solutions and to appropriately plan the resilience-based design and the development of the HSR system. High Speed Rail (HSR) from Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia to Singapore, which is still in its planning stage (at the time of writing), would be the first of its kind in Malaysia. Prime Ministers of Malaysia and Singapore jointly announced the HSR project on the 19 February 2013 and described the HSR as a “Game Changer”. The project target is to be fully operational by 2020. The key concept of the HSR was derived by the Malaysia Land Public Transport Commission (SPAD) and it will have 7 stations, 2 terminal stations, which are in Kuala Lumpur and Singapore, 5 transit stations, one in Negeri Sembilan and Malacca, and 3 in Johor. The HSR will have 2 operation systems, which are express, non-stop journey from Kuala Lumpur to Singapore, and the estimated journey time is 90 min, while the HSR Malaysia transit operation will have 7 stops including a terminus station, and the journey time will be 120 min. This journey time does not include the waiting time and immigration process. The trains are expected to run at 300 km/h or faster; however, the average speed will be lower due to the slower speed to approach the stations. The preliminary baseline alignment has been developed by SPAD as shown in Figure1, but the detailed alignments remain confidential at this stage. The HSR will have a dedicated line, which is proposed to be a double track using a standard gauge. The HSR project is believed to impact the way of life for Malaysians and Singaporeans in terms of social, politics and economics. According to SPAD, the main objective of HSR is “to reduce travel time between Kuala Lumpur and Singapore to 90 min by strengthening the link between two of Southeast Asia’s most vibrant and fast-growing economic engines compared to the 5 to 6 h journey time by road or over 6 h by conventional train” [4]. Although plane travel time is 90 min, similar to the proposed HSR, the hassle of long hours waiting before and after departures will actually give a total journey time of 4.0 h by plane [11]. In contrast, passengers can still board the HSR and even arrive at the railway station 15 min before departure. The CBD shown in Figure2 is the Central Business District. The introduction of HSR will increase the daily journey from KL to Singapore and vice versa and at the same time, the quality of life of people in both countries will be improved, and the economics of both countries will grow considerably. The HSR, according to the International Union of Railways [12,13], has a lower impact on climate and environment than all other compatible transport modes such as aviation and road transport, which are highly dependent on fossil fuels. Adoption of HSR might provide a better solution with respect to reducing the climate impact. Climate 2016, 4, 65 3 of 21

ClimateClimate 2016 2016, ,4 4, ,65 65 33 of of 20 20

Figure 1. Proposed High Speed Rail Malaysia to Singapore (courtesy: SPAD). FigureFigure 1.1. ProposedProposed HighHigh SpeedSpeed RailRail MalaysiaMalaysia toto SingaporeSingapore (courtesy:(courtesy: SPAD).SPAD).

FigureFigure 2.2. TravellingTravelling time time fromfrom KLKL toto Singapore:Singapore:Singapore: comparison comparison between between KTM, KTM, Bus, Bus, Plane Plane andand HSRHSR (courtesy:(courtesy: SPAD). SPAD).

Although the HSR has been proposed by both Malaysian and Singaporean Governments, the AlthoughAlthough the the HSR HSR has has been been proposed proposed by by both both Malaysian Malaysian and and Singaporean Singaporean Governments, Governments, the lack the lack of progress can be observed and has given a window of opportunity to include the climate oflack progress of progress can be can observed be observed and has and given has agiven window a window of opportunity of opportunity to include to include the climate the changeclimate change risks and adaptation strategy in the detailed design stage of the HSR system. Despite riskschange and risks adaptation and adaptation strategy in strategy the detailed in the design detailed stage design of the stage HSR system.of the HSR Despite system. considerable Despite considerable climate change research around the world, its application to risk assessment for high climateconsiderable change climate research change around research the world, around its applicationthe world, its to application risk assessment to risk for assessment high speed for rails high in speed rails in Asia is not thoroughly investigated. This is because georisk hazards and their Asiaspeed is notrails thoroughly in Asia is investigated. not thoroughly This investigated. is because georisk This hazardsis because and georisk their sensitivity hazards toand climate their sensitivity to climate change cannot be adequately assessed at a high‐level or top‐down analysis. As changesensitivity cannot to climate be adequately change assessedcannot be at adequately a high-level assessed or top-down at a high analysis.‐level As or atop result,‐down there analysis. is a need As aa result,result, therethere isis aa needneed toto assessassess climateclimate changechange riskrisk toto highhigh speedspeed railrail infrastructureinfrastructure atat thethe designdesign andand constructionconstruction stages.stages. TheThe mainmain objectiveobjective ofof thisthis paperpaper isis toto identifyidentify thethe risksrisks imposedimposed onon thethe highhigh

Climate 2016, 4, 65 4 of 21 Climate 2016, 4, 65 4 of 20 tospeed assess rail climate system change caused riskby local to high conditions speed rail including infrastructure topographical, at the design geological and constructionand climate change stages. Theconditions main objective of the proposed of this paper HSR is toroute identify in Malaysia. the risks imposed The study on thealso high aims speed to railevaluate system how caused the byinfrastructure local conditions design including can satisfy topographical, all the operational geological requirements and climate given change the conditions climate impact of the proposedissues. In HSRcarrying route out in Malaysia.this study, The critical study literature also aims reviews to evaluate were how carried the infrastructure out. The data design of Malaysia can satisfy HSR all theare operationalderived from requirements SPAD, and the given historical the climate data impactof weather issues. are In supplied carrying by out the this Malaysian study, critical Meteorological literature reviewsDepartment were in carried order out. to study The data the of impact Malaysia of climate HSR are change derived and from operational SPAD, and requirement the historical for data the of weatherdesign of are the supplied infrastructure. by the MalaysianWe aim to Meteorologicalinvestigate the undefined Department risks in order due to to climate study the change impact with of climaterespect changeto potential and operationalactions proposed requirement to mitigate for the the design impact. of theWe infrastructure. have performed We literature aim to investigate searches theon open undeﬁned databases risks with due respect to climate to Malaysian change with local respect climate to potential incidents actions and analyzed proposed them. to mitigate The insight the impact.will help We engineers have performed to better design literature and searches construct on the open infrastructure databases with critical respect to economic to Malaysian growth local of climatecities and incidents regions. and In analyzed this paper, them. the The local insight priorities will help on climate engineers change to better effects design and and the construct lessons thepertaining infrastructure to railway critical totransport economic systems growth ofwill cities be and discussed regions. Infirst, this paper,and then the localgeological priorities and on climatetopographical change issues effects and and their the lessons association pertaining with tothe railway real climate transport change systems effects will will be discussed be presented. ﬁrst, andFinally, then the geological risk and and consequences topographical will issues be reviewed and their and association analysed. with the real climate change effects will be presented. Finally, the risk and consequences will be reviewed and analysed. 2. Climate, Geography and Lessons Learnt 2. Climate, Geography and Lessons Learnt Malaysia is divided into 2 parts, Peninsular Malaysia and East Malaysia (refer to Figure 3, whichMalaysia are separated is divided by the into South 2 parts, China Peninsular Sea). Peninsular Malaysia andMalaysia East Malaysia is divided (refer into to2 parts, Figure west3, which and areeast separated coasts, by by the the Titiwangsa South China Mountains. Sea). Peninsular Figure Malaysia 3 clearly isshows divided that into the 2 South parts, China west and Sea east separates coasts, bythe the climate Titiwangsa change Mountains. impacts in Malaysian Figure3 clearly geography, shows and that the the climate South China variation Sea pertaining separates the to the climate high changespeed rail impacts line between in Malaysian Singapore geography, and Malaysia and the is climate restrained variation by the pertaining shore surrounding to the high the speed western rail linepeninsular. between Singapore and Malaysia is restrained by the shore surrounding the western peninsular.

Figure 3. Malaysia Map from Google Maps. Figure 3. Malaysia Map from Google Maps.

The climate in Malaysia is dominated by 2 monsoon regimes, namely the northeast monsoon and Thesouthwest climate monsoon. in Malaysia The is dominatednortheast monsoon by 2 monsoon circulates regimes, during namely the themonths northeast of December, monsoon andJanuary southwest and February, monsoon. which The northeastis Malaysia’s monsoon wettest circulates season and during the the period months where of December, the most flooding January andoccurs. February, Meanwhile, which the is southwest Malaysia’s monsoon wettest season occurs andbetween the period the months where of the May most and ﬂooding September, occurs. the Meanwhile,drier period thefor the southwest whole country monsoon leading occurs to between droughts the in months this period. of May Being and in September, the equatorial the drierzone periodand a tropical for the wholecountry, country the average leading temperature to droughts throughout in this period. the year Being is inconstantly the equatorial high (26 zone °C) and and a ◦ tropicalthere is country,very high the humidity average temperaturedue to the high throughout temperature. the year Malaysia is constantly also highhas very (26 C)heavy and thererainfall is verywhich high is more humidity than 2500 due to mm the per high year temperature. [14]. Malaysia also has very heavy rainfall which is more than“Warming 2500 mm per of yearthe [climate14]. system is unequivocal and since the 1950s, many of the observed changes“Warming are unprecedented of the climate system over isdecades unequivocal to millennia” and since the[14,15]. 1950s, manyAccording of the observedto the Malaysia changes areMeteorological unprecedented Department over decades [16], earth to millennia” surface temperature [14,15]. According records to have the clearly Malaysia indicated Meteorological that the climate of the earth is warming, with the rise being due to the increasing concentration of greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the atmosphere. Thus, in the next 50 years, Malaysia will experience

Climate 2016, 4, 65 5 of 21

Department [16], earth surface temperature records have clearly indicated that the climate of the earth is warming, with the rise being due to the increasing concentration of greenhouse gases (GHGs) in Climate 2016, 4, 65 5 of 20 the atmosphere. Thus, in the next 50 years, Malaysia will experience higher temperatures, changing rainfallhigher patterns,temperatures, rising seachanging levels andrainfall more patterns, frequent rising extreme sea weather levels eventsand more ranging frequent from droughtextreme toweather ﬂoods. events The Malaysian ranging from famous drought rail jungle to floods. (east coastThe Malaysian line) (refer famous to Figure rail4), jungle which (east is operated coast line) by National(refer to Figure Malaysia 4), which Railway is operated (KTM), was by National disrupted Malaysia for almost Railway 6 months (KTM), due was to the disrupted massive for ﬂood almost in December6 months 2014.due to The the damage massive included flood in the December railway quarters, 2014. The signalling, damage tracks,included locomotives, the railway machinery quarters, andsignalling, rolling stock.tracks, The locomotives, disruption machinery affected thousands and rolling of workers, stock. The traders disruption and children affected going thousands to school. of Thereworkers, is still traders one stretchand children of line going that is to not school. back inThere operation is still due one to stretch the railway of line bridge that is in not Kemubu, back in Kelantan,operation which due to completely the railway collapsed bridge in as Kemubu, evidenced Kelantan, in Figure which5. Operation completely of the collapsed train service as evidenced in the eastin Figure coast is5. expectedOperation to of be the fully train operational service in by the February east coast 2016 is withexpected the completionto be fully ofoperational the railway by bridgeFebruary in Kemubu. 2016 with Construction the completion of the of newthe railway 250 m long bridge bridge in Kemubu. across the Construction Nenggiri River of the is expected new 250 to m costlong RM30 bridge million across or the GBP4 Nenggiri million River [17]. Thisis expected incident to should cost RM30 provide million a lesson or to GBP4 the railway million industries [17]. This andincident policy should makers provide that extreme a lesson weather to the railway can have industries a severe and impact policy to the makers transportation that extreme operations weather ascan well have as theira severe infrastructure impact to [the18– 23transportation]. Rebuilding operations railway infrastructure as well as their is not infrastructure easy and very [18–23]. costly; thus,Rebuilding to provide railway a reliable infrastructure railway system is not intoeasy the and future, very studiescostly; ofthus, the to impact provide of climate a reliable change railway are neededsystem [into24]. Fromthe future, these studies studies, of the the adaptation impact of of climate railway change infrastructures are needed and [24]. rolling From stock these to climatestudies, changethe adaptation could be of established. railway infrastructures and rolling stock to climate change could be established.

FigureFigure 4. 4.Malaysia Malaysia rail rail map map (courtesy: (courtesy: SPAD). SPAD).

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Figure 5. Malaysia East Coast Line railway bridge which crosses Nenggiri River in Kemubu, Figure 5. Malaysia East Coast Line railway bridge which crosses Nenggiri River in Kemubu, Kelantan wasKelantan completely was completely lost due to lost massive due ﬂoodingto massive in December flooding 2014in December (courtesy: 2014 Malaysia (courtesy: Department Malaysia of PublicDepartment Works). of Public Works).

3. Topographical and Geological Challenging Conditions to Malaysia 3. Topographical and Geological Challenging Conditions to Malaysia To thoroughly assess emerging risks, it is essential to understand conditions of the soils and To thoroughly assess emerging risks, it is essential to understand conditions of the soils and potential foundation of rail infrastructure, which is highly sensitive to climate. It has been decided potential foundation of rail infrastructure, which is highly sensitive to climate. It has been decided by by SPAD that the HSR Malaysia route will be along the coastal area. Malaysia comprises a wide SPAD that the HSR Malaysia route will be along the coastal area. Malaysia comprises a wide range of range of rock types from the sands and silts of the coastal plains to the granite of the Main Range. rock types from the sands and silts of the coastal plains to the granite of the Main Range. Geologists, as Geologists, as shown in Figures 6 and 7, grouped the rocks according to their type, age and shown in Figures6 and7, grouped the rocks according to their type, age and environmental deposition. environmental deposition. The most widely used unit for geology reference is based on the The most widely used unit for geology reference is based on the formation; each type is given its own formation; each type is given its own geographical name. In Peninsular Malaysia, the geology range geographical name. In Peninsular Malaysia, the geology range from Cambrian to the Quartenary, that is from Cambrian to the Quartenary, that is from 570 million years to about 10,000 years ago, is from 570 million years to about 10,000 years ago, is represented and shown in Figure6. Sedimentation represented and shown in Figure 6. Sedimentation was unremitting throughout the Palaezoic and was unremitting throughout the Palaezoic and Mesozoic eras and due to the basin instability, there Mesozoic eras and due to the basin instability, there were major faults within and between the were major faults within and between the Palaezoic, Mesozoic and Cenozoic group of rocks, which are Palaezoic, Mesozoic and Cenozoic group of rocks, which are grouped according to four types of grouped according to four types of belts, namely the Western Belt, Bentong-Raub Suture, Central Belt belts, namely the Western Belt, Bentong‐Raub Suture, Central Belt and Easter Belt zone. Thus, and Easter Belt zone. Thus, Granitoids occupy nearly half of Peninsular Malaysia. Granitoids occupy nearly half of Peninsular Malaysia. From Gunung Gagau in the north to Gunung Panti in the south, which is located at the eastern From Gunung Gagau in the north to Gunung Panti in the south, which is located at the eastern Peninsular of Malaysia, sedimentary basins can be found. The sediments, which comprise sandstone, Peninsular of Malaysia, sedimentary basins can be found. The sediments, which comprise conglomerate and shales with minor coal seams and volcanic, show ﬂuvial, lalcustrine and deltaic sandstone, conglomerate and shales with minor coal seams and volcanic, show fluvial, lalcustrine conditions of deposition. Geological Maps of Peninsular Malaysia in Figure6 show that Malaysia’s and deltaic conditions of deposition. Geological Maps of Peninsular Malaysia in Figure 6 show that coastal area consists of mostly quarternary deposits [25,26]. Only in the straits of Malacca is the coastal Malaysia’s coastal area consists of mostly quarternary deposits [25,26]. Only in the straits of Malacca geology in the form of ordovicion phylites, schists and limestone. Kinta and Klang Valley contain is the coastal geology in the form of ordovicion phylites, schists and limestone. Kinta and Klang valuable tin ore. Thus, Kuala Lumpur in Klang Valley was named the capital city of Malaysia due to Valley contain valuable tin ore. Thus, Kuala Lumpur in Klang Valley was named the capital city of the rise of tin mining in the middle of the 19th century. Malaysia due to the rise of tin mining in the middle of the 19th century.

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Singapore

Figure 6. GeologyGeology Map of Peninsular Malaysia, modified modiﬁed from [[25].25].

As shown in Figure 8, the proposed HSR route starting from Kuala Lumpur will pass through a As shown in Figure8, the proposed HSR route starting from Kuala Lumpur will pass through a carboniferous area, which prominently consists of limestone. The route then will cross granite in the carboniferous area, which prominently consists of limestone. The route then will cross granite in the Seremban area. Towards to the south, the alignment will pass through the limestone and sandstone Seremban area. Towards to the south, the alignment will pass through the limestone and sandstone area. In the south bound region, the HSR route from Melaka to Nusajaya lies on the coastal area area. In the south bound region, the HSR route from Melaka to Nusajaya lies on the coastal area matching the geology profile of marine and continental deposits. Mostly, the soil conditions are matching the geology profile of marine and continental deposits. Mostly, the soil conditions are basically in the form of clay, silt and peat. basically in the form of clay, silt and peat. According to Bakshipouri et al. [27,28], approximately 40% (236.827 km2) of the Kuala Lumpur According to Bakshipouri et al. [27,28], approximately 40% (236.827 km2) of the Kuala Lumpur area is underlain by unique limestone and karst, which are extensively developed and classified as area is underlain by unique limestone and karst, which are extensively developed and classified as extreme Karst class Kv (see Figure 7). The process of karst formation commences as rainfall (H2O) extreme Karst class Kv (see Figure7). The process of karst formation commences as rainfall (H O) that that passes from the atmosphere onto the top, where it then infiltrates into the ground. Mixed2 with passes from the atmosphere onto the top, where it then infiltrates into the ground. Mixed with (CO2) (CO2) gas from the air and soil, this water produces a weak carbonic acid (H2CO3), which seeps gas from the air and soil, this water produces a weak carbonic acid (H2CO3), which seeps further into further into the ground and makes contact with the limestone (CaCO3) and/or dolomite the ground and makes contact with the limestone (CaCO3) and/or dolomite (CaMg(CO3)3). Figure8 (CaMg(CO3)3). Figure 8 shows typical morphological ground conditions within five classes of the engineeringshows typical classification morphological of groundkarst. conditionsThese examples within show five classes horizontal of the engineeringbedding of classificationthe limestone; of dippingkarst. These bedding examples planes show and horizontal inclined fractures bedding add of the complexity limestone; to dipping most of bedding the features planes and and also inclined create planarfractures failures add complexity behind steep to most cliff offaces. the featuresThe dotted and line also represents create planar any failures type of behind clastic steep soil or cliff surface faces. Thesediment dotted [29]. line represents any type of clastic soil or surface sediment [29].

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Climate 2016, 4, 65 Juvenile karst kI 8 of 20

Juvenile karst kI

Youthful karst kII

Mature karst kIII

Complex karst kIV

Extreme karst kV

Figure 7. Typical morphological features of karstic ground conditions within five classes of the Figure 7. Typical morphological features of karstic ground conditions within five classes of the engineeringengineering classification classification of karst,of karst, modified modified from from [ [29].29]. Figure 7. Typical morphological features of karstic ground conditions within five classes of the engineering classification of karst, modified from [29].

Figure 8. Cont.

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FigureFigure 8. Geological 8. Geological Map Map of of the the HSR HSR Malaysia route, route, modified modiﬁed from from [25]. [25 ].

4. Global and Malaysia Climate Change Predictions 4. Global and Malaysia Climate Change Predictions 4.1. Climate and Weather 4.1. Climate and Weather The American Meteorological Society defines climate as: “The slowly varying aspects of the Theatmosphere American‐hydrosphere Meteorological‐land surface Society system. defines It is climate typically as: characterised “The slowly in varying terms of aspects suitable of the atmosphere-hydrosphere-landaverages of the climate system surface over system. periods It isof typicallya month characterisedor more, taking in termsinto consideration of suitable averages the of thevariability climate system in time overof these periods averaged of a quantities”. month or more,According taking to Dessler into consideration [30], weather the refers variability to the in time ofactual these state averaged of the atmosphere quantities”. at Accordinga particular totime. Dessler For example, [30], weather weather refers in Birmingham to the actual on 26 state July of the atmosphere2015 was at sunny a particular for the whole time. Forday example,without any weather precipitation in Birmingham with a temperature on 26 July of 19 2015 °C during was sunny the for the wholeday and day 10 without °C at night. any Climate, precipitation in contrast, with is aused temperature as a statistical of 19description◦C during of the the weather day and over 10 a◦ C at night.period Climate, of time, in contrast, usually isa few used decades. as a statistical Climate descriptionis a record ofwhich the weatherindicates overthe low a period and high of time, temperatures at certain places for a period of time. usually a few decades. Climate is a record which indicates the low and high temperatures at certain places4.2. for Global a period Climate of time.Change 4.2. GlobalThe Climate American Change Meteorological Society defines the term climate change as follows [31]: “It is any systematic change in the long‐term statistics of climate elements (such as temperature, pressure, or Thewinds) American sustained Meteorological over several decades Society or defines longer”. the In termother climatewords, if change there is as any follows change [31 between]: “It is any systematicstatistic change of weather in the for long-term such a period statistics A and of climateperiod B, elements that is climate (such aschange. temperature, According pressure, to the or winds)observations sustained overof the several IPCC decadesWorking or Group longer”. 1 Summary In other words,for Policy if there makers is any (SPM) change of betweenthe statisticIntergovernmental of weather for Panel such on a Climate period Change A and (IPCC) period Fourth B, that Assessment is climate Report change. [31], the According evidence for to the observationsrapid climate of the change IPCC Workingis compelling: Group 1 Summary for Policy makers (SPM) of the Intergovernmental Paneli. on ClimateGlobal temperature Change (IPCC) rise Fourth Assessment Report [31], the evidence for rapid climate change is compelling:ii. Sea level rise iii. Warming oceans i. iv.Global Shrinking temperature ice sheets rise ii. v. SeaDeclining level rise Arctic sea ice iii. vi.Warming Glacial retreat oceans vii. Extreme events iv. Shrinking ice sheets viii. Ocean acidification v. ix.Declining Decreased Arctic snow sea cover ice vi. Glacial retreat vii. Extreme events viii. Ocean acidification ix. Decreased snow cover Climate 2016, 4, 65 10 of 21

4.2.1. GlobalClimate Temperature 2016, 4, 65 Rise 10 of 20

One of4.2.1. the Global parameters Temperature often associatedrise with climate change is temperature. Since 1850, in each of the last 3Climate decades, 2016, 4, the65 Earth’s surface has constantly experienced increasing warmer temperatures.10 of 20 One of the parameters often associated with climate change is temperature. Since 1850, in each The period4.2.1.of from Globalthe 1983last Temperature 3 to decades, 2012 wasrise the likely Earth’s the surface warmest has 30-yearconstantly period experienced of the lastincreasing 1400 yearswarmer in the Northern Hemispheretemperatures. The [32 ].period As shown from 1983 in to Figure 2012 was9 below, likely the for warmest the period 30‐year 1880 period to 2012, of the there last 1400 was a One of the parameters often associated with climate change is temperature. Since 1850, in each years in the Northern Hemisphere [32].◦ As shown in Figure 9 below, for the period 1880 to 2012, linear warmingof the last trend 3 ofdecades, 0.85 (0.65 the toEarth’s 1.06) surfaceC[2] for has globally constantly averaged experienced combined increasing and oceanwarmer surface there was a linear warming trend of 0.85 (0.65 to 1.06) °C [2] for globally averaged combined and temperaturetemperatures. data. The The different period from colours 1983 into the2012 graph was likely indicate the warmest different 30‐year data period sets. Theof the ocean last 1400 warming ocean surface temperature data. The different colours in the graph indicate different◦ data sets. The increasedyears near in the the surface, Northern and Hemisphere the upper [32]. 75 As m shown warmed in Figure by 0.11 9 below, (0.09 tofor 0.13) the periodC per 1880 decade to 2012, over the ocean warming increased near the surface, and the upper 75 m warmed by 0.11 (0.09 to 0.13) °C per there was a linear warming trend of 0.85 (0.65 to 1.06) °C [2] for globally averaged combined and period 1971decade to 2010. over the period 1971 to 2010. ocean surface temperature data. The different colours in the graph indicate different data sets. The ocean warming increased near the surface, and the upper 75 m warmed by 0.11 (0.09 to 0.13) °C per decade over the period 1971 to 2010. Surface temperature Surface temperature

Figure 9.FigureGlobally 9. Globally averaged averaged combined combined land and and ocean ocean surface surface temperature temperature anomaly, anomaly, modified from modified [29]. from [29]. 4.2.2. Sea Level Rise Figure 9. Globally averaged combined land and ocean surface temperature anomaly, modified from [29]. 4.2.2. Sea LevelSea Rise level rise can be related to climate change due to two reasons [30]: first as terrestrial ice 4.2.2.melts, Sea theLevel melted Rise water runs into the ocean, increasing the total amount of water in the ocean and therefore the sea level. Secondly, the water level expands when it warms. Figure 10 shows the global Sea levelSea rise level can rise be relatedcan be related to climate to climate change change due due to two to two reasons reasons [30 [30]:]: first first as as terrestrial terrestrial iceice melts, mean sea level increased by 0.19 m between 1901 and 2010. That is 1.7 mm/year in 1901 to 3.2 the meltedmelts, water the runsmelted into water the runs ocean, into increasingthe ocean, increasing the total the amount total amount of water of water in the in ocean the ocean and and therefore mm/year in 2010. Since the mid 19th Century, the rate of sea level rise has been greater than before. the sea level.therefore Secondly, the sea level. the water Secondly, level the expands water level when expands it warms. when it Figure warms. 10Figure shows 10 shows the global the global mean sea Colours indicate different data sets. All datasets are aligned to have the same value in 1993, the first level increasedmean sea by level 0.19 mincreased between by 19010.19 m and between 2010. That1901 and is 1.7 2010. mm/year That is in1.7 1901 mm/year to 3.2 in mm/year 1901 to 3.2 in 2010. year of satellite altimetry data (red). Where assessed, uncertainties are indicated by coloured mm/year in 2010. Since the mid 19th Century, the rate of sea level rise has been greater than before. Since the midshading. 19th Century, the rate of sea level rise has been greater than before. Colours indicate Colours indicate different data sets. All datasets are aligned to have the same value in 1993, the first different data sets. All datasets are aligned to have the same value in 1993, the first year of satellite year of satellite altimetry data (red). Where assessed, uncertainties are indicated by coloured altimetryshading. data (red). Where assessed, uncertainties are indicated by coloured shading. Sea level change Sea level change

Figure 10. Global average sea level change, modified from [29].

4.2.3. Extreme Events Figure 10. Global average sea level change, modified from [29]. AccordingFigure to the 10. IPCCGlobal [31], average it is very sea level likely change, that the modiﬁed number from of cold [29 ].days and nights has 4.2.3.decreased Extreme and Events the number of warm days and nights has increased on the global scale, and it is likely 4.2.3. Extremethat Eventsthe frequency of heat waves has increased in large parts of Europe, Asia and Australia. According to the IPCC [31], it is very likely that the number of cold days and nights has Precipitation has also increased rather than decreased. In North America and Europe, the frequency decreased and the number of warm days and nights has increased on the global scale, and it is likely Accordingand intensity to the IPCC of heavy [31 precipitation], it is very likely events that are likely the number greater than of cold before. days and nights has decreased and the numberthat the frequency of warm daysof heat and waves nights has hasincreased increased in large on theparts global of Europe, scale, Asia and and it is Australia. likely that the Precipitation has also increased rather than decreased. In North America and Europe, the frequency frequencyand of intensity heat waves of heavy has precipitation increased in events large are parts likely of greater Europe, than Asia before. and Australia. Precipitation has also increased rather than decreased. In North America and Europe, the frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation events are likely greater than before. Climate 2016, 4, 65 11 of 21

4.3. Malaysia Climate Change Climate 2016, 4, 65 11 of 20 Past Climate Trends 4.3. Malaysia Climate Change Malaysia is located near to the equator and is thus characterised as a tropical country with a monsoonPast Climate climate, Trends given the heavy and constant precipitation all year round. The weather is strongly influencedMalaysia is bylocated the topographical near to the equator features and suchis thus as characterised the mountain as a and tropical sea land country configuration. with a Two monsoonsmonsoon climate, which given dominate the heavy the and Malaysia constant climateprecipitation according all year toround. the The Malaysia weather Metereological is strongly Departmentinfluenced [16 ]by are the the topographical summer Southwest features such Monsoon as the thatmountain influences and sea the land climate configuration. of the region Two from May tomonsoons September, which and dominate the winter the Northeast Malaysia Monsoon climate according from November to the toMalaysia February. Metereological Tropical storms Department [16] are the summer Southwest Monsoon that influences the climate of the region from and depressions form in the South China Sea and the Indian Ocean sector. May to September, and the winter Northeast Monsoon from November to February. Tropical storms Theand obviousdepressions change form inin climatethe South that China Southeast Sea and Asiathe Indian is currently Ocean sector. experiencing is increasing surface air temperature.The obvious The El change Nino-Southern in climate Oscillationthat Southeast (ENSO), Asia time-scale-basedis currently experiencing oscillation is increasing of the Indian Oceansurface Dipole air (IOD) temperature. and the intraseasonalThe El Nino‐Southern Madden Oscillation Julian Oscillation (ENSO), (MJO)time‐scale may‐based influence oscillation extensively of the observedthe Indian interannual Ocean Dipole and intraseasonal(IOD) and the rainfall intraseasonal distribution Madden in SoutheastJulian Oscillation Asia. There (MJO) are may several studiesinfluence that demonstrate extensively the tropical observed cyclones interannual originating and intraseasonal in the Pacific rainfall have distribution increased, in Southeast with a major impactAsia. on theThere Philippines are several and studies Vietnam, that demonstrate including thetropical Peninsular cyclones Malaysia originating southern in the Pacific bound have massive floodincreased, in 2006 and with 2007 a major [33]. Theimpact increasing on the Philippines temperature and and Vietnam, decreasing including rainfall the Peninsular have both Malaysia significantly increasedsouthern the intensitybound massive and spread flood in of 2006 forest and fires 2007 in [33]. Southeast The increasing Asia. Fires temperature in peat landsand decreasing in Indonesia rainfall have both significantly increased the intensity and spread of forest fires in Southeast Asia. during the El Nino dry season are now common every year and cause haze in most ASEAN countries. Fires in peat lands in Indonesia during the El Nino dry season are now common every year and The countriescause haze that in aremost badly ASEAN affected countries. due toThe this countries haze are that Indonesia, are badly Malaysia affected due and to Singapore. this haze Inare 2005, the PrimeIndonesia, Minister Malaysia of Malaysia and Singapore. declared In a2005, state the of emergencyPrime Minister in Portof Malaysia Klang, declared Selangor, a 40state km of from Kualaemergency Lumpur after in Port the Klang, Air Pollution Selangor, 40 Index km from reached Kuala 500—the Lumpur emergency after the Air level Pollution [34]. Index reached 500—the emergency level [34]. (a) Temperature (a) Temperature The Malaysia Metereological Department [16] has selected Kuching, Kota Kinabalu, Kuantan and Petaling JayaThe meteorological Malaysia Metereological stations toDepartment represent West[16] has Malaysia selected and Kuching, Peninsular Kota Kinabalu, Malaysia, Kuantan respectively, to studyand the Petaling trend Jaya of both meteorological temperature stations and rainfall to represent data over West the Malaysia last 40 and years Peninsular (1968–2007). Malaysia, Figure 11 respectively, to study the trend of both temperature and rainfall data over the last 40 years (1968– shows increasing temperatures throughout the 40-year period for the four stations. Kuching shows the 2007). Figure 11 shows increasing temperatures throughout the 40‐year period for the four stations. smallestKuching increase shows in temperature,the smallest increase which in may temperature, be due to which the larger may areasbe due of to forest the larger cover areas in Sarawak of forest and the leastcover urbanisation in Sarawak and compared the least tourbanisation the other statescompared in Malaysia. to the other There states wasin Malaysia. also evidence There was that also strong El Ninoevidence events that were strong recorded El Nino in events 1972, were 1982, recorded 1987, 1991 in 1972, and 1982, 1997 1987, that are 1991 related and 1997 to thethat significantare related rise in temperatureto the significant recorded rise (Figurein temperature 12). recorded (Figure 12).

FigureFigure 11. Annual11. Annual Mean Mean Temperature Temperature Trend Trend for for 44 MeteorologicalMeteorological Stations Stations (Courtesy: (Courtesy: Malaysia Malaysia Meteorological Department). Meteorological Department).

Climate 2016, 4, 65 12 of 21 Climate 2016, 4, 65 12 of 20

Figure 12.12. LongLong-Term‐Term Mean Temperature forfor WestWest Malaysia.Malaysia. Colours indicate the temperature in degrees Celsius.Celsius. DJF-December, DJF‐December, January, January, February. February. MAM-March, MAM‐March, April, April, May. JJA-June,May. JJA July,‐June, August. July, SON-September,August. SON‐September, October, October, November November (Courtesy: (Courtesy: Malaysia Malaysia Meteorological Meteorological Department). Department).

Seasonal mean temperature for Peninsular Malaysia is shown in Figure 12 and is categorised as 30-year30‐year (1961–1990) temperature and 10-year10‐year (1998–2007) temperature. The analysis performed by the Malaysia Metereological Department [[16]16] is divided into 4 seasons, December-January-FebruaryDecember‐January‐February (DJF), March-April-MayMarch‐April‐May (MAM), June-July-AugustJune‐July‐August (JJA) and September September-October-November‐October‐November (SON). (SON). It is shown in Figure 12 that,that, despite a 10 or 30 yearyear duration,duration, MAM and JJM are thethe warmest and coldest seasonsseasons in in Malaysia, Malaysia, respectively. respectively. Figure Figure 12 also 12 clearlyalso clearly shows shows that Malaysia that Malaysia is getting is warmer.getting Accordingwarmer. According to the Malaysia to the Metereological Malaysia Metereological Department [ 16Department], an average [16], temperature an average increase temperature of 0.5 ◦C toincrease 1.5 ◦C of was 0.5 recorded °C to 1.5 in °C Peninsular was recorded Malaysia in Peninsular and SON recorded Malaysia the and highest SON temperaturerecorded the increase highest followedtemperature by DJF.increase followed by DJF. (b) RainfallRainfall analysis analysis Malaysian rainfallrainfall distribution distribution patterns patterns are are determined determined by by both both seasonal seasonal wind wind ﬂow flow patterns patterns and localand local topographic topographic features. features. The east The coast east coast of Peninsular of Peninsular Malaysia Malaysia is likely is tolikely have to more have heavy more rainheavy as therain area as the is more area is exposed more exposed to the South to the China South Sea. China However, Sea. However, the west the coast west area coast of Peninsular area of Peninsular Malaysia isMalaysia likely to is be likely sheltered to be fromsheltered heavy from rains heavy due rains to the due topographical to the topographical features. Thus,features. the Thus, east coast the east has experiencedcoast has experienced more ﬂooding more during flooding the during monsoon the monsoon season compared season compared to the west to coast. the west Figure coast. 13 Figureshows the13 shows average the occurrence average occurrence of rainfall of based rainfall on based the south on the coast, south high coast, land, high east land, coast east and coast west and coast west of Peninsularcoast of Peninsular Malaysia. Malaysia. Readings Readings were recorded were recorded from 12 from am till12 am 9 pm. till It9 pm. is stated It is stated that the that south the south coast willcoast experience will experience more rainfallmore rainfall during during April, April, and the and east the coast east will coast get will more get rainfall more rainfall in the same in the month same duemonth to thedue seasonal to the seasonal times. Figure times. 14 Figureshows the14 Long-Termshows the MeanLong‐Term Rainfall Mean for Peninsular Rainfall for Malaysia, Peninsular the coloursMalaysia, indicate the colours the total indicate rainfall in the mm. total DJF-December, rainfall in January, mm. DJF February;‐December, MAM-March, January, April,February; May; JJA-June,MAM‐March, July, August;April, SON-September,May; JJA‐June, October,July, August; November SON [‐16September,]. Comparing October, actual recordsNovember of rainfall [16]. Comparing actual records of rainfall quantity between 1961–1990 and 1998–2007, it is found that the

Climate 2016, 4, 65 13 of 21 Climate 2016, 4, 65 13 of 20

Peninsular experienced more rainfall in the latter period, demonstrating the solid evidence of quantityClimate between 2016, 4, 65 1961–1990 and 1998–2007, it is found that the Peninsular experienced more13 of rainfall 20 climatein the latter change. period, demonstrating the solid evidence of climate change. Peninsular experienced more rainfall in the latter period, demonstrating the solid evidence of climate change.

FigureFigure 13. OccurrenceOccurrence 13. Occurrence of of rainfall rainfallof rainfall based based based on on on the the the south south coast, highhigh land, land, east east coast coast and and west west coast coast of of PeninsularPeninsular Malaysia Malaysia (Courtesy: (Courtesy: Malaysia Malaysia Meteorological Meteorological Department).

FigureFigure 14. Long-Term 14. Long‐Term Mean Mean Rainfall Rainfall for for Peninsular Peninsular Malaysia. Malaysia. Colours Colours indicate indicate the the total total rainfallrainfall in mm. DJF-December,mm. DJF‐December, January, February. January, MAM-March,February. MAM April,‐March, May. April, JJA-June, May. July, JJA August.‐June, July, SON-September, August.

October,SON November‐September, (Courtesy: October, November Malaysia (Courtesy: Meteorological Malaysia Department). Meteorological Department). Figure 14. Long‐Term Mean Rainfall for Peninsular Malaysia. Colours indicate the total rainfall in mm. DJF‐December, January, February. MAM‐March, April, May. JJA‐June, July, August. SON‐September, October, November (Courtesy: Malaysia Meteorological Department).

Climate 2016, 4, 65 14 of 21 Climate 2016, 4, 65 14 of 20

5. Climate Change Effects on Extreme Weather andand AssociatedAssociated EffectsEffects onon RailwayRailway InfrastructureInfrastructure Extreme weather events have occurred frequently in Malaysia over the past decade. The most devastating natural disasters experienced in Malaysia are ﬂoodsfloods andand landslides.landslides.

5.1. Floods The destructive flood flood in in southern southern peninsular peninsular of of Malaysia, Malaysia, which which occurred occurred in intwo two events events back back to toback back in December in December 2006 2006 and and January January 2007, 2007, is known is known as Typhoon as Typhoon Utor. Utor. The massive The massive flood floodin Kota in KotaTinggi Tinggi Johor Johor startedstarted when when the Northeast the Northeast monsoon monsoon brought brought heavy heavy rain rain through through a aseries series of of storms. storms. The series of floodsfloods were unusual as the 2006 average rainfall return period was 50 years, while 2007 had more than a 100-year100‐year return period.period. Local weather changes are among the natural causes that triggered the flashflash floodflood [[35,36].35,36].

5.2. Landslides Asia has suffered more landslides compared to other world regions regions due due to to its its climate climate nature. nature. According to United Nations University [[37],37], among natural disasters, landslides are the seventh ranked killer, after windstorms, ﬂoods,floods, droughts, earthquakes, volcanos and extreme temperatures, among whichwhich anan average average of of 940 940 people people annually annually were were killed killed by landslidesby landslides in the in decadethe decade 1993 1993 to 2002, to most2002, ofmost those of victimsthose victims from Asia. from There Asia. areThere many are factors many thatfactors can that trigger can landslidestrigger landslides including including changes inchanges slope geometry,in slope geometry, water level, water rainfall level, intensity, rainfall andintensity, loading. and However, loading. However, the major causethe major of landslides cause of inlandslides Malaysia in is Malaysia high precipitation. is high precipitation. As FigureFigure 15 15 shows, shows, trafﬁc traffic may may slow slow due due to rockto rock falls falls but canbut stillcan swerve still swerve and go and around go around the debris; the however,debris; however, this is different this is different with trains. with The trains. trains The do trains not have do not this have option this even option if the even smallest if the landslide smallest occurslandslide on occurs the railway on the line. railway This bringsline. This greater brings risk greater to the risk trains to andthe trains its passengers. and its passengers. It is important It is forimportant the infrastructure for the infrastructure manager to designmanager the to slope design and the track slope embankment and track with embankment the consideration with the of extremeconsideration rainfall of dueextreme to climate rainfall change. due to climate change.

Figure 15. 15. TheThe Bukit Bukit Lanjan Lanjan rockfall rockfall along the along New the Klang New Valley Klang Expressway Valley Expressway in November in 2003 November resulted in2003 a six resulted‐month closure in a six-month of that particular closure ofstretch that (Courtesy: particular Malaysia stretch (Courtesy: Department Malaysia of Public DepartmentWorks). of Public Works). The wettest winter on record in England and Wales caused widespread and severe consequencesThe wettest including winter on flooding record inand England disruption and Wales to road caused transport widespread in the andSomerset severe Levels. consequences It also includingcaused the ﬂooding collapse and of disruptionthe iconic toSouth road Devon transport Railway in the Somersetsea wall Levels.at Dawlish It also (refer caused to theFigure collapse 16), ofundermining the iconic South rail access Devon to Railway and from sea wall the atcounties Dawlish of (refer Cornwall to Figure and 16 Devon), undermining [38–42]. railThis access can be to andevidence from of the a countiessecondary of effect Cornwall on a and railway Devon line. [38 –42]. This can be evidence of a secondary effect on a railway line.

Climate 2016, 4, 65 15 of 21 Climate 2016, 4, 65 15 of 20 Climate 2016, 4, 65 15 of 20

Figure 16.16. TheThe main main railway railway line line to to Cornwall Cornwall and and Devon Devon was was demolished demolished at Dawlish at Dawlish by storms, by storms, which Figure 16. The main railway line to Cornwall and Devon was demolished at Dawlish by storms, hitwhich the hit UK the in FebruaryUK in February 2014 (Courtesy: 2014 (Courtesy: Network Network Rail). Rail) which hit the UK in February 2014 (Courtesy: Network Rail) A rise in the sea level will automatically affect the reading of the 100‐year flood level, which the A rise in the sea level will automatically affect the reading of the 100-year flood level, which MalaysianA rise indesign the sea standard level will normally automatically adopts affect when the designing reading of a theplatform 100‐year level flood bridge. level, Therewhich theare the Malaysian design standard normally adopts when designing a platform level bridge. There are manyMalaysian consequences design standard for railway normally infrastructure adopts duewhen to designinghot and dry a weatherplatform and level the bridge. obvious There example are many consequences for railway infrastructure due to hot and dry weather and the obvious example manyis the riskconsequences of buckling. for Accordingrailway infrastructure to Network dueRail, to the hot definition and dry weather of buckling and isthe the obvious extent exampleof track is the risk of buckling. According to Network Rail, the definition of buckling is the extent of track deformationis the risk of constitutingbuckling. According a reportable to Network buckle thatRail, wouldthe definition render ofthe buckling line unfit is forthe theextent passage of track of deformation constituting a reportable buckle that would render the line unfit for the passage of trains deformationtrains at line constitutingspeed and/or a necessitatesreportable buckleemergency that remedialwould render work theto a line running unfit linefor underthe passage cover of at line speed and/or necessitates emergency remedial work to a running line under cover of either a trainseither aat temporary line speed restriction and/or necessitates of speed or emergency closure of remedialthe line. Bucklingwork to ais running very treacherous line under as coverit could of temporary restriction of speed or closure of the line. Buckling is very treacherous as it could cause causeeither derailmenta temporary of restriction the train andof speed end upor closurein the disruption of the line. of Buckling railway is operation very treacherous services. as Figure it could 17 derailment of the train and end up in the disruption of railway operation services. Figure 17 shows a causeshows derailment a Singapore of thebound train train and thatend derailedup in the on disruption 26 January of railway2013 due operation to rail bucklingservices. Figure[11]. The 17 Singapore bound train that derailed on 26 January 2013 due to rail buckling [11]. The wagons landed wagonsshows a landed Singapore on their bound sides train and thattrapped derailed the workers, on 26 January injuring 2013 five passengers.due to rail Thebuckling train service[11]. The to on their sides and trapped the workers, injuring five passengers. The train service to the southern part thewagons southern landed part on oftheir Malaysia sides and was trapped disrupted the workers,for several injuring days duefive passengers.to the difficulties The train rescuers service had to of Malaysia was disrupted for several days due to the difficulties rescuers had reaching the remote thereaching southern the remotepart of area Malaysia where was the incidentdisrupted happened. for several days due to the difficulties rescuers had areareaching where the the remote incident area happened. where the incident happened.

Figure 17. KTMB train derailed due to rail buckling and landed on its side, trapping the driver and Figureinjuring 17. about KTMB five train passengers derailed due just to before rail buckling Kempas, and Johor landed station, on its side,southern trapping part the of driver Malaysia and injuring(Courtesy: aboutabout Malaysia ﬁve five passengers Departmentpassengers just ofjust before Public before Kempas, Works). Kempas, Johor station,Johor station, southern southern part of Malaysia part of (Courtesy:Malaysia Malaysia(Courtesy: Department Malaysia Department of Public Works). of Public Works). In the United Kingdom, the Railway Safety and Standards Board (RSSB) with involvement of the MetIn the Office United has assessedKingdom, the the risk Railway of heat Safetyon railway and Standardsassets and railwayBoard (RSSB) operation. with Similarinvolvement work onof roadthe Met infrastructure Office has assessed has also thebeen risk carried of heat out on by railway the Scottish assets Road and railway Network. operation. The findings Similar included: work on road infrastructure has also been carried out by the Scottish Road Network. The findings included:

Climate 2016, 4, 65 16 of 21

In the United Kingdom, the Railway Safety and Standards Board (RSSB) with involvement of the Met Ofﬁce has assessed the risk of heat on railway assets and railway operation. Similar work on road infrastructure has also been carried out by the Scottish Road Network. The ﬁndings included:

• An increase in the number of days required to monitor track buckling and an increase in the frequency of speed restriction as a result. • Reduction in productivity of the workers caused by heat stress. • Passengers experiencing more heat stress.

6. Responses to the Threat of Climate Change Malaysia has conducted several studies on the climate change scenarios through the Malaysian Meteorological Department and Ministry of Science, Technology and Innovation and several universities. However, there were only a few studies on the threat of climate change with respect to infrastructure, particularly in the railway industry. Based on the expert interviews at KTMB and SPAD using face-to-face and e-mail communications, the risks and vulnerable assets can be identiﬁed for Malaysian railway networks. Collaborative research conducted by universities in Malaysia was focused more on climate change impact than on agriculture. It is thus important to ﬁrst understand and be able to identify emerging risks to rail infrastructure at the design and construction stage. The insight into the risks and potential impact will enable better management of construction, better choice of materials, better planning for crisis and post-crisis management, and so on. Expert interviews of almost 30 experienced track and environmental engineers in Malaysia (from various organisations e.g., SPAD, KTMB, Department of Public Works, etc.) have been conducted. Face-to-face meetings and e-mail interviews had been kindly supported by governmental engineers and local consultants. Priority, likelihood and potential consequences of natural hazard threats were discussed and gathered based on a systems thinking approach. Based on critical risk analysis, Table1 portrays possible risks and the vulnerability of the high speed rail assets in Malaysia. The ranking was based on the analysis and expert interviews from the Malaysian Department of Transport using previous experiences, soil and geological conditions, historical data of geo hazards and responses, and the data from SPAD on the track alignment and track structures. It is found that intense rainfall could trigger a number of emerging risks. In addition, because the neutral rail temperature has been designed at a higher degree in Asia, the risk ranking for rail buckling is not as high.

Table 1. Risks and vulnerable assets of high speed rail infrastructure in Malaysia.

Climate Impact Group Vulnerable Asset Infrastructure Group Ranking Embankments 1 Rock cuttingsGeotechnical 2 Intense rainfall Earth cuttings 3 Drainage 4 Civil Culverts 5 Trains Operation 6 Storms Signalling equipment Signals 7 Trains Operation 8 Signalling equipment Signals 9 Flash ﬂood Embankments Geotechnical 10 Track circuits Electrical 11 Climate 2016, 4, 65 17 of 21

Table 1. Cont.

Climate Impact Group Vulnerable Asset Infrastructure Group Ranking Signalling equipment 12 Signals Mechanical equipment 13 Extreme heat Complex junction Track 14 Overhead wire Electrical 15 Bush ﬁre Electriﬁcation Electrical 16 Trains 17 Operation Intense rainfall Railway station 18 Train function Rolling stock 19 Passenger comfort Operation 20 Extreme heat Train function Rolling stock 21 Intense rainfall Complex junction Track 22 Overhead Wiring Regulator Electrical 23 Storms Ballast washaway Track 24 Trains 25 Operation Stations/Platforms 26 Sea level rise Tunnels 27 Civil Bridges and viaducts 28 Intense rainfall Bridge scour Civil 29 Rail bunching and/or buckling on Extreme heat Track 30 sharp curve or steep gradient

The Climate Change Act 2008 is an Act of the Parliament of the United Kingdom, who implemented a process by which statutory authorities, such as Network Rail, are required to comply with formal reporting requirements with respect to climate change adaptation [43,44]. According to Lane and Dora [41], in order to undertake the required reporting process, it is ﬁrstly necessary to identify the key activities that are required to develop a reliable method for the prediction of climate change impact as shown in Table2.

Table 2. Proposed planning process for climate change adaption for HSR Malaysia.

No. Planning Component Purpose Knowledge and understanding of impact on 1 Critical weather events HSR Malaysia Knowledge and understanding of structural, Critical components of 2 systems and elemental response and HSR Malaysia vulnerability to critical weather events Methodology for predicting the impact of Prediction of climate 3 specific critical weather events on components change impact of the HSR Malaysia Permits evaluation of different adaptation Development of 4 policies that are practical, cost-efficient and adaptation options suitable to localised issues Identification of changes to design standards to 5 Design standards mitigate the impact of climate change Identification of changes to management policy 6 Management policy to mitigate the impacts of climate change Climate 2016, 4, 65 18 of 21

In this case, Malaysia HSR could adopt this planning and perhaps this policy can provide guidance for the other rail operators such as KTM and Rapid KL [45]. The assessment of the risks and consequences of the critical weather events with respect to HSR Malaysia and possible adaptation measures are thus shown in Table3.

Table 3. Risks and adaptation measures for high speed rail in Malaysia.

Climate Likely Negative Safety Performance Long or Impact Risks Impact from Adaptation Measures Impact Impact Short Term Group Climate Change Platform level need to cater to sea level rise and Increased Sea Level drainage design must cater ﬂooding Medium High High Long Rise to Average Recurrence generally Interval (ARI) plus climate change projection. Drainage design must cater Increased to Average Recurrence Landslide High High High Long Rainfall Interval (ARI) plus climate change projection Need to monitor the ground movement and the Increased Settlement High High Low Long relation with rainfall Rainfall intensity especially at the karst area in Kuala Lumpur. Need to study rail design resilience to high Track temperature or provide Heat High High High Long buckling watchmen, condition monitoring and appropriate inspection strategies.

7. Conclusions The global community recently agreed in COP2016 in Paris that climate change is real and unequivocal. However, Malaysia is still far behind in terms of assessing the risks of climate change, especially with respect to its existing railway systems. Our critical review has found that there was a lack of studies on the real effect of climate change with respect to the Malaysian railway operation and to the local railway infrastructures. In particular, the projected urban growth in Kuala Lumpur and Singapore has led to the necessity to establish improved transport links between the two cities, including road, aviation, ports and rail. Recently, a High Speed Rail (HSR) system has been jointly proposed by both the Malaysian and Singaporean Governments. However, the existing railway network in the region has been affected signiﬁcantly by severe weather conditions such as rainfall, lightning, wind and very high temperatures. Now that Malaysia is planning to design and build the new HSR, mitigation and adaption measures pertaining to the risk of climate change are a must to ensure that we together can achieve and deliver:

• A safe railway • A highly reliable railway • Increased capacity • Value for money • Predictable and preventable ethos

The risk, safety and performance impact of each climate impact group on the operation of HSR Malaysia has thus been evaluated and highlighted in this paper. Based on critical risk analysis and expert interviews, the responses to the threat of climate change have been initially proposed for the Malaysia-Singapore HSR system. We found that the most critical risks involve intense rainfall, which Climate 2016, 4, 65 19 of 21 undermines embankments, rock cuttings, earth cuttings, and drainage and culvert systems in the railway network. This is due to the fact that the geotechnical and geological conditions in the rail network are highly sensitive to moisture content and pore water pressure. The insight based on a critical review of open literature and evaluation of expert interviews from this study will help design engineers, constructors, maintainers and asset owners to plan and prepare for operational readiness of high speed rail networks under an uncertain climate. On this ground, planning and design of HSR are required in order to appropriately respond and adapt to climate change. By adopting adaptation measures, Malaysia can mitigate both performance and safety impacts related to climate change over the long term. The scope of this work is focused on risk proﬁling of high speed rail development. Future work includes resilience-based design and planning of the system associated with localized climate change potential.

Acknowledgments: The authors are grateful to the Malaysia Land Public Transport Commission (SPAD), Department of Public Works and Meteorological Department for the information, data, supporting figures and the financial support throughout this study. We also appreciate constructive comments and suggestions from all reviewers. The first author would like to thank the Malaysian Government for her postgraduate scholarship at the University of Birmingham. The second author wishes to thank the Australian Academy of Science and Japan Society for the Promotion of Sciences for his Invitation Research Fellowship (Long term) at the Railway Technical Research Institute and The University of Tokyo, Tokyo Japan. The authors gratefully acknowledged the financial support from the European Commission for H2020-MSCA-RISE Project No. 691135 “RISEN: Rail Infrastructure Systems Engineering Network,” which enables a global research network that tackles the considerable challenge in railway infrastructure resilience and advanced sensing under extreme events (www.risen2rail.eu). Author Contributions: Sazrul Leena Binti Saadin and Sakdirat Kaewunruen conceived and designed the data analyses; Sazrul Leena Binti Saadin performed the data gathering, filtering and correlation, and big data analyses; Sakdirat Kaewunruen and David Jaroszweski reviewed the data processing; Sazrul Leena Binti Saadin, Sakdirat Kaewunruen and David Jaroszweski wrote the paper. Conflicts of Interest: The authors declare no conflict of interest. The founding sponsors had no role in the design of the study; in the collection, analyses, or interpretation of data; in the writing of the manuscript, and in the decision to publish the results.

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