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Asia Pacific Daily Asia Pacific Daily 30 October 2017 Company Roadshows Date Company Event Venue 30 Oct BOC Aviation (2588 HK) NDR Seoul 1-2 Nov BTS Group (BTS TB) NDR Tokyo 9 Nov Guangdong Investment NDR Beijing, (270 HK) China 20-21 Nov Guangdong Investment NDR Tokyo (270 HK) 23-24 Nov L'Occitane (973 HK) NDR SG Daiwa Asian Events Date Company Venue Major changes Analyst Rating Page 7-10 Nov Daiwa Investment Conference Hong Kong HK 2017 Samsung Engineering (028050 KS) Mike Oh Outperform P.4 20-21 Nov Daiwa Asia Communication Days 2017 London Solid new order recovery likely 7-8 Dec TWSE-Daiwa Taiwan Corporate Day Tokyo Tokyo Target price 21.7% to KRW14,000 2017 Other research 2-5 Jan Daiwa P.U.R.E. Energy Conference 2018 HK 2018 Discovery John Choi P.8 5-9 Mar Daiwa Investment Conference Tokyo 2018 Tokyo Asia Small-cap Weekly 2018 China Construction Bank (939 HK) Yan Li Outperform P.9 Source: Daiwa Starting point for further growth Daiwa: latest rating and target price revisions Ping An Insurance (2318 HK) Leon Qi Hold P.13 Rating Target price 3Q17 results: VNB growth moderates Company Ticker Latest Chg Latest Chg Date China Life Insurance (2628 HK) Leon Qi Buy P.17 Samsng Eng 028050 KS 2 14,000 27-10 2018 jumpstart headwinds may have been Ping An In 2318 HK 3 62.00 27-10 exaggerated Ch Unicom 762 HK 1 13.80 27-10 Ch Con Bk 939 HK 2 8.00 27-10 Baidu (BIDU US) John Choi Hold P.21 China Life 2628 HK 1 31.00 27-10 3Q17: a mixed quarter, feed ads shine, iQiyi Ch Telecom 728 HK 1 4.98 27-10 hiccup CDL REIT CDREIT SP 3 1.61 27-10 China Unicom (762 HK) Ramakrishna Buy P.25 Baidu BIDU US 3 245.00 27-10 On the cusp of a mobile turnaround Maruvada Sinbon 3023 TT 1 98.00 27-10 SSG SSG SP 4 0.88 27-10 China Telecom (728 HK) Ramakrishna Buy P.29 Yes Bank YES IN 1 380.00 27-10 Gaining revenue share in mobile Maruvada Source: Daiwa New China Life Insurance (1336 HK) Leon Qi Buy P.33 Significant acceleration in 3Q17 new regular premium Advanced Semicon Eng (2311 TT) Rick Hsu Buy P.37 EMS strength to offset inventory tailwind Sinbon Electronics (3023 TT) Helen Chien Buy P.41 Riding on multiple trends CDL Hospitality Trusts (CDREIT SP) David Lum Hold P.45 Still waiting for the Singapore industry recovery Sheng Siong Group (SSG SP) Jame Osman Underperform P.49 Still cautious on near-term risks GSS Energy (GSSE SP) Jame Osman No Rating P.53 A manufacturing base with an oil and gas option Thai Union Group Pcl (TU TB) Kalvalee Buy P.55 Cyclical impact Thongsomaung Indonesia Tobacco Michael W Setjoadi Neutral P.56 HMSP & GGRM to benefit from the new regulation; upgrading HMSP United Tractors (UNTR IJ) Henry Wibowo Buy P.57 Solid Komatsu and Pama numbers in 3Q17, Re- affirm BUY Bumi Serpong Damai (BSDE IJ) Renaldy Effendy Buy P.58 3Q17 results: Dragged by one-off costs See important disclosures, including any required research certifications, beginning on page 103. Asia Pacific Daily | 1 Bank Jabar (BJBR IJ) Alvin Baramuli Reduce P.59 3Q17 Earnings Miss, Reiterate Reduce Japfa Comfeed (JPFA IJ) Michael W Setjoadi Buy P.60 JPFA 3Q17 results: Below our and consensus estimates Blue Bird (BIRD IJ) Gregorius Gary Buy P.61 3Q17 results: Strong q-q earnings growth; Maintain BUY London Sumaterax Indonesia (LSIP IJ) Gregorius Gary Buy P.62 3Q17 results: Above consensus expectations, reiterate BUY Eagle High Plantations (BWPT IJ) Gregorius Gary Buy P.63 3Q17 results: Narrowing net loss, strong EBIT growth; Maintain BUY Sri Rejeki Isman (SRIL IJ) Michael W Setjoadi Buy P.64 SRIL 3Q17 results: Below our but in line with consensus estimates Tenaga (TNB MK) Ng Chi Hoong Buy P.65 Positive surprise from higher DPS WCT Holdings (WCTHG MK) Loong Chee Wei Buy P.66 Good foreign interest Yes Bank (YES IN) Punit Srivastava Buy P.67 Strong quarter, masked by NPL-related divergence Japan equity research Fanuc (6954) Hirosuke Tai Neutral P.71 May take until 2018 to see benefits from added capacity JCR Pharmaceuticals (4552) Kazuaki Outperform P.72 New drug development using J-Brain Cargo Hashiguchi US equity research Ford Motor (F) Jairam Nathan Neutral P.73 NA Price/Cost Dynamics Key As Product Pace Weakens Intel (INTC) Deepak Sitaraman Neutral P.74 Strong Q3 results and Q4 outlook United Parcel Service (UPS) Jairam Nathan Neutral P.75 Growth Investment Acceleration Calls For Muted 2018 Visa (V) Takahiro Yano Outperform P.76 Guiding for FY18 EPS growth at high end of mid-teens Macro research Bahana Macrosight Sarah Jessica P.77 2018 budget: More populist, more prudent Hutapea US Data Review Michael Moran P.78 Third Quarter GDP Memos – quick updates PURE Brunch Dennis Ip P.79 27 October 2017 Taiwan Financial Pulse Nora Hou P.80 27 October 2017 Adlink (6166 TT) Steven Tseng P.81 3Q17 EPS in line to us, but margins came in weaker Asia Pacific Daily | 2 China Communication Construction Kelvin Lau P.82 (1800 HK) Acquisition of AECON, a leading Canadian construction company China Eastern Airlines (CEA) (670 HK) Kelvin Lau P.83 Key takeaways: likely moderate domestic yield recovery on limited flight schedule China Pacific Insurance Group (2601 HK) Leon Qi P.84 Agency FYP deceleration in 3Q17 China Railway Group (CRG) (390 HK) Kelvin Lau P.85 Net profit shrank 12% YoY in 3Q17 on flattish revenue growth and lower profit margin CRRC Corp (1766 HK) Kelvin Lau P.86 Net profit up 15% YoY in 3Q17, while that for 9M17 is still below our estimate Great Wall Motor (GWM) (2333 HK) Kelvin Lau P.87 3Q17 conference call key takeaways Hyundai Steel (HS) (004020 KS) Sung Yop Chung P.88 3Q17 earnings were in-line and poised for a stronger earnings rebound in 4Q17 Hyundai Wia (Wia) (011210 KS) Sung Yop Chung P.89 3Q17 operating profit drops to record low, but bracing for a stronger rebound in 4Q17 Indofood Agri Resources (IFAR SP) Jame Osman P.90 3Q17 performance disappoints Kia Motors (Kia) (000270 KS) Sung Yop Chung P.91 3Q17 earnings turn into the red for the first time in a decade on ordinary wage ruling Orient Overseas International Limited Kelvin Lau P.92 (OOIL) (316 HK) 3Q17 operating data: stronger-than-expected freight rate recovery Suntec REIT (SUN SP) David Lum P.93 3Q17 results: DPU 1% below our forecast Wynn Macau (1128 HK) Jamie Soo P.94 3Q17 results was largely in-line Xinjiang Goldwind Science & Technology Dennis Ip P.95 (2208 HK) Takeaways from 3Q17 results call: Expects lower WTG shipments this year, but sees recovery in 2018-19 Korea: share prices and Daiwa recommendation trends P.96 Daiwa’s Banner Products P.97 Rating and target-price information P.98 Recently published reports P.99 Asia Pacific Daily | 3 Korea Industrials 27 October 2017 Samsung Engineering (028050 KS) Target price: KRW14,000 (from KRW11,500) Share price (27 Oct): KRW12,500 | Up/downside: +12.0% Solid new order recovery likely Weak 3Q17 results but we see limited downside in 2018 earnings Mike Oh (82) 2787 9179 USD2.5bn UAE order looks imminent [email protected] Reiterating Outperform (2); raising our 12 month TP to KRW14,000 - What's new: Despite its weak 3Q17 earnings, we think Samsung Forecast revisions (%) Engineering’s (SE) YoY new order improvement and backlog mix Year to 31 Dec 17E 18E 19E enhancement should lead to a share-price recovery going forward. We Revenue change 5.4 2.4 1.3 believe that not only overseas orders but also resilient captive new orders Net profit change (71.4) (4.4) 5.6 Core EPS (FD) change (71.4) (4.4) 5.6 should ensure its EPS growth over the next two years. Source: Daiwa forecasts What's the impact: Weak 3Q17 results: SE’s 3Q17 operating profit came Share price performance in at KRW15.3bn, 32% lower than the Bloomberg consensus estimate due (KRW) (%) to KRW65bn of cost recognition from two overseas projects (ie, KRW34bn 13,500 125 for UAE CBDC project, KRW31bn for Iraq Badra project). However, we 12,375 113 think the negative earnings impact from the two projects should be limited 11,250 100 in 2018E, given their completion stands at 96% and 94%, with remaining 10,125 88 9,000 75 provision balances of KRW30.7bn and KRW16bn, respectively. Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Samsng Eng (LHS) Strong order momentum: We expect that the long-awaited USD2.5bn Relative to KOSPI (RHS) UAE Process Offshore Crude (POC) order should be finally awarded in 4Q17. Lucrative captive orders from Samsung affiliates YTD stand at 12-month range 9,150-13,500 Market cap (USDbn) 2.18 KRW2.4tn and we think the number could go up to KRW3tn for 2017. Thus, 3m avg daily turnover (USDm) 18.09 we revise up our 2017 new order forecast by 22% to KRW8.2tn, from Shares outstanding (m) 196 Samsung SDI (11.7%) KRW6.7tn. Given that SE expects bids worth KRW27tn for 2018E and we Major shareholder also expect over KRW3tn worth of captive new orders in 2018, we believe SE’s earnings turnaround will become more apparent from 2018. Financial summary (KRW) Year to 31 Dec 17E 18E 19E Revenue (bn) 5,945 6,337 6,780 Earnings revision: Overseas provisioning and the high concentration of Operating profit (bn) 78 218 324 likely new orders in 4Q17 lead us to cut our 2017E EPS by 71%.
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