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M Especially Due to Weakness in the SUV Segment (-32% Yoy) and Sedan Segment (-56%) Despite Strong Growth for Pick-Ups (+17%)

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M Especially Due to Weakness in the SUV Segment (-32% Yoy) and Sedan Segment (-56%) Despite Strong Growth for Pick-Ups (+17%) x Country 12 February 2020 Great Wall Motor (2333 HK) Share price (12 Feb): HKD5.67 12-mth rating: Outperform (2) Consumer Discretionary: China Softness in January sales MEMO Kelvin Lau Summary: Great Wall Motor (GWM) registered a volume decline of 28% YoY to 80k (852) 2848 4467 units in January, after declines of 21% in December and 13% in November. This was [email protected] especially due to weakness in the SUV segment (-32% YoY) and sedan segment (-56%) despite strong growth for pick-ups (+17%). We think the sales weakness was due to the earlier Lunar New Year holiday in 2020 (25 January vs. 5 February in 2019). We are cautious on GWM’s February sales number amid the current coronavirus outbreak. Analysis Haval brand sales fell significantly– In January, the total sales volume for the Haval brand fell significantly by 32% YoY, to 59k units, after declines of 27% in December and 22% in November. While sales for the key model M6 remained solid at 14,291 units (+18% YoY), F7 and H6 showed softness at 10,193 units (-32% YoY) and 26,414 units (-41% YoY) respectively. Further, sales for H2, H4, and F5 declined by 60%, 19% and 68% YoY, respectively to 2011, 1294 and 1630 units, respectively. However, H9 showed robust growth of 50% YoY to 1237 units. WEY brand sales fell further– The total sales volume for the WEY brand fell by 37% YoY in January to 6,395 units, vs. declines of 20% for December and 8% for November. Sales for WEY VV5, VV6 and VV7 dropped by 18%, 46% and 24% YoY, respectively, to 1,724, 3,120 and 1,551 units. Strong truck sales growth– Pick-up truck sales totalled 13,421 units in January, representing a 17% YoY growth, thanks to the new model P-series with a decent sales volume of 5,551 units despite a 31% decline for Wingle to 7.9k units. Weak sedan sales : Sedan sales fell by 56% YoY to 1,725 units in January due to weakness for ORA R1 (-26% to 1295 units) and ORA iQ (-99.8% to 5 units) despite strong growth for C30 (+189% to 425 units). The export volume growth was 18% YoY with 4,442 units sold, implying a 30% sales decline for the China market. Important disclosures, including any required research certifications, are provided on the last three pages of this report. Great Wall Motor (2333 HK) 12 February 2020 GWM sales summary Model Jan-2020 YoY % 2020 YTD sales YTD YoY % P-series 5,551 5,551 Wingle 7,870 -31.4% 7,870 -31.4% Pick-up truck 13,421 17.1% 13,421 17.1% Haval-H2 2,011 -60.1% 2,011 -60.1% Haval-H4 1,294 -18.9% 1,294 -18.9% Haval-H6 26,414 -41.3% 26,414 -41.3% Haval-H9 1,237 50.1% 1,237 50.1% Haval-M6 14,291 18.4% 14,291 18.4% Haval-F5 1,630 -67.8% 1,630 -67.8% Haval-F7 10,193 -32.3% 10,193 -32.3% Other Haval models 1,650 13.5% 1,650 13.5% Haval sub total 58,720 -31.8% 58,720 -31.8% VV7 1,551 -24.1% 1,551 -24.1% VV6 3,120 -46.3% 3,120 -46.3% VV5 1,724 -17.8% 1,724 -17.8% P8 - -100.0% - -100.0% Wey sub total 6,395 -37.1% 6,395 -37.1% SUV Total 65,115 -32.4% 65,115 -32.4% Great Wall C30 425 189.1% 425 189.1% ORA R1 1,295 -26.0% 1,295 -26.0% ORA IQ 5 -99.8% 5 -99.8% Sedan sub total 1,725 -56.1% 1,725 -56.1% Total 80,261 -28.2% 80,261 -28.2% Including Export Sales Volume 4,442 18.4% 4,442 18.4% Source: Company Recommendation We have an Outperform (2) rating as we expect solid sales and margin improvement for GWM over 2020-21 backed by a decent product pipeline and cost savings execution by management. Key risks: lower-than-expected sales volumes and margins. In the interests of timeliness, this document has not been edited. 2 Great Wall Motor (2333 HK) 12 February 2020 Important Disclosures and Disclaimer This publication is produced by Daiwa Securities Group Inc. and/or its non-U.S. affiliates, and distributed by Daiwa Securities Group Inc. and/or its non-U.S. affiliates, except to the extent expressly provided herein. This publication and the contents hereof are intended for information purposes only, and may be subject to change without further notice. Any use, disclosure, distribution, dissemination, copying, printing or reliance on this publication for any other purpose without our prior consent or approval is strictly prohibited. Neither Daiwa Securities Group Inc. nor any of its respective parent, holding, subsidiaries or affiliates, nor any of its respective directors, officers, servants and employees, represent nor warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein or as to the existence of other facts which might be significant, and will not accept any responsibility or liability whatsoever for any use of or reliance upon this publication or any of the contents hereof. Neither this publication, nor any content hereof, constitute, or are to be construed as, an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any of the securities or investments mentioned herein in any country or jurisdiction nor, unless expressly provided, any recommendation or investment opinion or advice. Any view, recommendation, opinion or advice expressed in this publication may not necessarily reflect those of Daiwa Securities Group Inc., and/or its affiliates nor any of its respective directors, officers, servants and employees except where the publication states otherwise. This research report is not to be relied upon by any person in making any investment decision or otherwise advising with respect to, or dealing in, the securities mentioned, as it does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs of any person. Daiwa Securities Group Inc., its subsidiaries or affiliates, or its or their respective directors, officers and employees from time to time have trades as principals, or have positions in, or have other interests in the securities of the company under research including market making activities, derivatives in respect of such securities or may have also performed investment banking and other services for the issuer of such securities. Daiwa Securities Group Inc., its subsidiaries or affiliates do and seek to do business with the company(s) covered in this research report. Therefore, investors should be aware that a conflict of interest may exist. The following are additional disclosures. Ownership of Securities For “Ownership of Securities” information, please visit BlueMatrix disclosure link at https://daiwa3.bluematrix.com/sellside/Disclosures.action. Investment Banking Relationship For “Investment Banking Relationship”, please visit BlueMatrix disclosure link at https://daiwa3.bluematrix.com/sellside/Disclosures.action. Japan Daiwa Securities Co. Ltd. and Daiwa Securities Group Inc. Daiwa Securities Co. Ltd. is a subsidiary of Daiwa Securities Group Inc. Investment Banking Relationship Within the preceding 12 months, the subsidiaries and/or affiliates of Daiwa Securities Group Inc. * has lead-managed public offerings and/or secondary offerings (excluding straight bonds) of the securities of the following companies: Shenwan Hongyuan Group Co Ltd (6806 HK), Viva Biotech Holdings (1873 HK). *Subsidiaries of Daiwa Securities Group Inc. for the purposes of this section shall mean any one or more of: Daiwa Capital Markets Hong Kong Limited (大和資本市場香港有限公司), Daiwa Capital Markets Singapore Limited, Daiwa Capital Markets Australia Limited, Daiwa Capital Markets India Private Limited, Daiwa-Cathay Capital Markets Co., Ltd., Daiwa Securities Capital Markets Korea Co., Ltd. Hong Kong This research is distributed in Hong Kong by Daiwa Capital Markets Hong Kong Limited (大和資本市場香港有限公司) (“DHK”) which is regulated by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission. Recipients of this research in Hong Kong may contact DHK in respect of any matter arising from or in connection with this research. Relevant Relationship (DHK) DHK may from time to time have an individual employed by or associated with it serves as an officer of any of the companies under its research coverage. Singapore This research is distributed in Singapore by Daiwa Capital Markets Singapore Limited and it may only be distributed in Singapore to accredited investors, expert investors and institutional investors as defined in the Financial Advisers Regulations and the Securities and Futures Act (Chapter 289), as amended from time to time. By virtue of distribution to these category of investors, Daiwa Capital Markets Singapore Limited and its representatives are not required to comply with Section 36 of the Financial Advisers Act (Chapter 110) (Section 36 relates to disclosure of Daiwa Capital Markets Singapore Limited’s interest and/or its representative’s interest in securities). Recipients of this research in Singapore may contact Daiwa Capital Markets Singapore Limited in respect of any matter arising from or in connection with the research. Australia This research is distributed in Australia by Daiwa Capital Markets Australia Limited and it may only be distributed in Australia to wholesale investors within the meaning of the Corporations Act. Recipients of this research in Australia may contact Daiwa Capital Markets Stockbroking Limited in respect of any matter arising from or in connection with the research. India This research is distributed in India to Institutional Clients only by Daiwa Capital Markets India Private Limited (Daiwa India) which is an intermediary registered with Securities & Exchange Board of India as a Stock Broker, Merchant Bank and Research Analyst.
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