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Win Semiconductors (Initiating Coverage with Outperform) 3 Pegatron (Downgrade to Neutral) 4 Wharf Holding (Outperform) 5 Sunny

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Win Semiconductors (Initiating Coverage with Outperform) 3 Pegatron (Downgrade to Neutral) 4 Wharf Holding (Outperform) 5 Sunny Wednesday, 10 May 2017 Win Semiconductors (Initiating coverage with Outperform) 3 Winner expanding its arms Lynn Luo We initiate coverage on Win Semi with an Outperform rating and a target price of NT$155 (15x 2018E P/E). We believe Win Semi is expanding its addressable market beyond RF (radio frequency) components. Pegatron (Downgrade to Neutral) 4 Downgrading into recent strength Jeffrey Ohlweiler After the recent share price outperformance (up 23.4% off its 2017 lows vs up 9.7% for TWSE over same period) and our downward earnings revisions, we are downgrading Pegatron to Neutral. Wharf Holding (Outperform) 5 Recovery on the fast lane David Ng Harbour City (HC) is recovering faster than our expectation with 1.4% YoY sales growth for 1Q17, versus the overall HK retail market down 1.3%. The outperformance was driven by a luxury sales recovery, which was even more pronounced at its mainland China malls. Sunny Optical (Outperform) 6 Handset Lens continue to beat Allen Chang April shipments beat despite weak smartphone seasonality: 1) Handset lens at 44m (+9% MoM, +111% YoY), vs. Largan rev at +2% MoM, +19% YoY. January-April tracking our 1H17 estimates by 80%, 2) Vehicle lens at 3m (-4% MoM, +39% YoY). AUO (Underperform) 7 Inventory correction just beginning Louis Cheng AUO's ADR (NYSE: AUO) share price slumped by 8.2% overnight, reaffirming our concern on 1) weaker-than-expected Apr sales (-11% MoM), 2) inventory correction happening (2Q panel shipments revised down to 15m units from 16.3m units in 1Q), and 3) TV brands switching their focus back to 32” from ultra large-sized (55-65”) on cost efficiency. Accton Technology (Upgrade to Outperform) 8 AIA Group (Neutral) 9 Asahi Glass Company (Neutral) 10 Brilliance China Automotive (Outperform) 11 China Longyuan Power (Outperform) 12 Ginko (Downgrade to Neutral) 13 Great Wall Motor Company (Outperform) 14 Please refer to page 31 for important disclosures and analyst certification, or on our website www.macquarie.com/research/disclosures. IHI Corp (Neutral) 15 Korea Electric Power (Outperform) 16 MinebeaMitsumi (Outperform) 17 Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (Neutral) 18 NGK Spark Plug (Neutral) 19 SCREEN Holdings (Neutral) 20 Skyworth (Outperform) 21 SoftBank (Outperform) 22 Sony (Outperform) 23 Subaru (Neutral) 24 Sumitomo Heavy Industries (Outperform) 25 Supalai PCL (Outperform) 26 Uni-President China (Outperform) 27 Union Bank of India (Underperform) 28 China autos 29 Macquarie Commodities Comment 30 2 TAIWAN Win Semiconductors 3105 TT Outperform Winner expanding its arms Price (at 14:41, 08 May 2017 GMT) NT$122.00 We initiate coverage on Win Semi with an Outperform rating and a target price of Valuation NT$ 155.00 - PER NT$155 (15x 2018E P/E). We believe Win Semi is expanding its addressable 12-month target NT$ 155.00 market beyond RF (radio frequency) components. We believe WiFi and cellular Upside/Downside % +27.0 content in smartphones will continue to increase, while the Infrastructure 12-month TSR % +30.7 segment will grow amid increasing data consumption demand. With margin Volatility Index High expansion on better product mix, we forecast Win Semi’s earnings to grow at a GICS sector 16% CAGR in 2016-19E. Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment Optical devices: expanding TAM Market cap NT$m 49,129 Market cap US$m 1,630 We estimate optical devices will contribute 2%/4% of Win Semi’s revenue in 30-day avg turnover US$m 16.0 2017/18, mainly driven by VCSEL (vertical-cavity surface-emitting laser) for Number shares on issue m 402.7 smartphone 3D sensing. In addition, the optical business should help Win Semi to expand the addressable market from RF components to a wider range of Investment fundamentals Year end 31 Dec 2016A 2017E 2018E 2019E applications like high data rate optical devices and auto electronics. With better Revenue m 13,623 15,055 17,154 19,146 margins, we believe this business should also help Win Semi’s margin Reported profit m 3,113 3,271 4,146 4,798 expansion. We expect GM/OPM to expand +1.5/+2.0ppts pa for 2017/18. EPS rep NT$ 7.30 8.10 10.30 11.91 EPS rep growth % 27.9 10.9 27.1 15.7 PER rep x 16.7 15.1 11.8 10.2 WiFi/Cellular continue migration Total DPS NT$ 0.63 4.50 4.75 6.02 Total div yield % 0.5 3.7 3.9 4.9 We believe Win Semi will continue to benefit from cellular and WiFi content growth ROA % 13.8 14.5 16.3 17.4 in smartphones and other applications. We see smartphone WiFi continuing ROE % 17.9 17.7 20.3 21.1 EV/EBITDA x 8.7 7.7 6.7 5.8 migration to dual band MIMO (multiple input, multiple output) and MU-MIMO Net debt/equity % 12.2 5.2 1.3 -3.3 (multi-user MIMO), while home networking and enterprise WLAN (wireless local P/BV x 2.8 2.5 2.3 2.1 area network) will migrate to 802.11ac. For cellular, more complex carrier Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, May 2017 aggregation and 4x4 MIMO may serve as key growth drivers before 5G launches (all figures in NT$ unless noted, TP in TWD) in 2020. We expect WiFi/Cellular revenue to grow at a 10% CAGR in 2016-19. Infrastructure strong growth We expect Win Semi will continue to benefit from strong infrastructure growth amid increasing data consumption demand. Strong growth of LTE small cells could be one of the key growth drivers. Also, satellite communication, fiber- optics, and automobile connectivity should see increasing demand for RF content. In addition, infrastructure build for 5G should start around 2019-20, which would be a long-term growth driver for Win Semi’s Infrastructure business. We expect Infrastructure segment revenue to grow at 14% CAGR in 2016-19. Valuation and risks Our target P/E multiple of 15x is higher than its long-term trading average of 11x, as we believe the stock deserves a re-rating with an expanding TAM and 16% Analyst(s) earnings CAGR in 2016-19E. Our 2018 earnings estimate is higher than Macquarie Capital Limited, Taiwan Securities consensus by 6%, as we expect margin expansion on better product mix. We Branch Lynn Luo believe the next catalyst will be in 2Q/3Q17, when Win Semi enters peak season +886 2 2734 7534 [email protected] for smartphone RF component and VCSEL demand. In the 3D sensing/VCSEL Patrick Liao space, we also like Himax and Chroma. +886 2 2734 7515 [email protected] Macquarie Capital Limited Key downside risks to our view include: 1) weaker than expected demand for Allen Chang +852 3922 1136 [email protected] smartphones; 2) slower adoption progress of LTE and WiFi new technologies; Verena Jeng and 3) more severe competition from peers. +852 3922 3766 [email protected] Chris Yu +86 21 24129024 [email protected] Macquarie Governance and Risk Score (MGRS) On our proprietary Governance and Risk Score Win Semiconductors scores in the second quartile of our current universe coverage. 9 May 2017 Please refer to page 19 for important disclosures and analyst certification, or on our website www.macquarie.com/research/disclosures. 3 TAIWAN Pegatron 4938 TT Neutral Downgrading into recent strength Price (at 06:41, 09 May 2017 GMT) NT$89.70 Valuation NT$ 91.00 Conclusion - PER 12-month target NT$ 91.00 . After the recent share price outperformance (up 23.4% off its 2017 lows vs up Upside/Downside % +1.4 9.7% for TWSE over same period) and our downward earnings revisions, we 12-month TSR % +6.9 are downgrading Pegatron to Neutral. Volatility Index Medium GICS sector . After market today, Pegatron reported 1Q17 results and held an analyst call. Technology Hardware & Equipment Previously announced sales of NT$239bn (-34% QoQ, -7% YoY) were 9%/6% Market cap NT$m 230,977 below our/consensus. GM/OPM of 5.0%/2.3% vs 4.8%/2.5% in 4Q16 and Market cap US$m 7,657 5.8%/2.6% in 1Q16 were slightly below our/consensus of 5.3%/2.6-2.4%. Pre- Free float % 71 tax income (including an FX loss of NT$1.3bn) of NT$5.1bn was down 43% 30-day avg turnover US$m 12.6 QoQ and 21% YoY and was 26%/14% below our/consensus. Net profit of Number shares on issue m 2,575 NT$3.9bn was down 34% QoQ and down 5% YoY and was 15% below our Investment fundamentals and 3% above consensus. 1Q17 EPS was NT$1.51. Year end 31 Dec 2016A 2017E 2018E 2019E . For 1Q17, Communication sales (68%) were down 37% QoQ but up 4% YoY, Revenue bn 1,157.7 1,149.7 1,194.7 1,206.7 Reported profit bn 19.3 21.1 23.5 23.8 Computing sales (17%) were down 7% QoQ and 19% YoY, Consumer sales Profit bonus exp bn 19.3 21.1 23.5 23.8 (7%) were down 46% QoQ and 42% YoY, subsidiary sales fell to 8% of total Bon exp/rep profit % 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Adjusted profit bn 19.3 21.1 23.5 23.8 (from 10% in 1Q16). EPS rep NT$ 7.49 8.18 9.13 9.23 EPS rep growth % -19.0 9.3 11.6 1.1 Impact EPS bonus exp NT$ 7.49 8.18 9.13 9.23 EPS bonus growth % -19.0 9.3 11.6 1.1 .
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