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Great Wall Motor Version 6 | Bloomberg: 2333 HK EQUITY | 601633 CH Equity | Reuters: 2333.HK | 601633.SS Refer to Important Disclosures at the End of This Report

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Great Wall Motor Version 6 | Bloomberg: 2333 HK EQUITY | 601633 CH Equity | Reuters: 2333.HK | 601633.SS Refer to Important Disclosures at the End of This Report China / Hong Kong Company Guide Great Wall Motor Version 6 | Bloomberg: 2333 HK EQUITY | 601633 CH Equity | Reuters: 2333.HK | 601633.SS Refer to important disclosures at the end of this report DBS Group Research . Equity 27 Mar 2019 H: HOLD Headwinds remain Last Traded Price ( 26 Mar 2019):HK$5.46(HSI : 28,567) Price Target 12-mth:HK$5.60 (2.6% upside) (Prev HK$4.30) Market remains challenging; HOLD. Great Wall Motor (GWM) is still facing some headwinds, as the overall auto market is expected to A: HOLD remain tough in 1H19. While the government’s stimulus measures Last Traded Price (A) ( 26 Mar 2019):RMB7.67(CSI300 Index : 3,700) may help boost sales, we expect keen market competition to stay, Price Target 12-mth (A):RMB8.00 (4.3% upside) (Prev RMB6.50) especially in the SUV segment where rivals are intensifying their efforts Analyst and rapidly rolling out new models. This could compress gross Rachel MIU+852 36684191, [email protected] margins. While the company will launch some new energy vehicles What’s New this year, the traditional segment still dominates a large part of its • Market challenges remain in 1H19; competition in business. We cut FY19F earnings by 30% due to the downward SUV segment is fierce revisions in sales volume and margins (especially after the weak 2H18 • Government stimulus policy could support performance), as a decent recovery is not visible as yet. Valuation is sentiment; awaiting release of details unattractive based on its earnings fundamentals. • Launching some new models to boost sales New energy vehicle (NEV) strategy. GWM’s NEV strategy covers the • Maintain HOLD; TP of HK$5.60/H-share whole eco-system, including the upstream parts and battery Price Relative production. The small compact NEV will be fully electric while the A-B HK$ Relative Index RMB Relative Index 21.0 segment will apply the plug-in hybrid and fuel cell technology. Since 21.7 220 217 19.7 19.0 197 17.7 170 17.0 177 the launch of NEV models in 2H18, GWM has sold 14,300 units till to- 15.7 15.0 157 13.7 137 120 13.0 11.7 117 date. The current NEV subsidy scheme may be revised down, hence, 11.0 9.7 97 9.0 7.7 70 77 7.0 the company needs to launch competitively priced models to entice 5.7 57 3.7 20 5.0 37 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 car buyers. Great Wall Motor (LHS) Relative HSI (RHS) Great Wall Motor Co Ltd-A (LHS) Relative CSI300 Index (RHS) Forecasts and Valuation Share price under pressure recently. The share price has been under FY Dec (RMBm) 2017A 2018A 2019F 2020F Turnover 101,169 99,230 108,593 117,064 pressure from profit-taking recently and we believe the weak auto EBITDA 9,651 10,242 9,652 9,379 sales in 1H19 could cap share price performance in the near-term. The Pre-tax Profit 6,233 6,477 6,510 6,930 stock offers a yield of c.6%. Net Profit 5,027 5,207 5,330 5,674 Net Pft (Pre Ex) (core profit) 5,027 5,207 5,330 5,674 Net Profit Gth (Pre-ex) (%) (52.4) 3.6 2.4 6.4 Valuation: EPS (RMB) 0.55 0.57 0.58 0.62 HOLD maintained with a new TP of HK$5.60 per H-share, pegged to EPS (HK$) 0.64 0.67 0.68 0.73 Core EPS (RMB) 0.55 0.57 0.58 0.62 sector average 8x FY19F PE (previously 6.5x). Core EPS (HK$) 0.64 0.67 0.68 0.73 EPS Gth (%) (52.4) 3.6 2.4 6.4 Key Risks to Our View: Core EPS Gth (%) (52.4) 3.6 2.4 6.4 Diluted EPS (HK$) 0.64 0.67 0.68 0.73 Erosion in market share. Competition in the SUV market is growing as DPS (HK$) 0.20 0.34 0.35 0.37 other Chinese auto brands are beefing up their vehicle profiles. This DPS (HK cts) 19.87 33.90 34.69 36.93 BV Per Share (HK$) 6.29 6.73 7.07 7.45 could erode GWM’s market share faster than expected, especially in PE (X) 8.5 8.2 8.0 7.5 the small SUV segment. CorePE (X) 8.5 8.2 8.0 7.5 P/Cash Flow (X) nm 2.2 3.9 4.0 At A Glance P/Free CF (X) nm 3.3 8.6 9.2 Issued Capital - H shares (m shs) 3,100 EV/EBITDA (X) 5.3 4.9 4.9 4.7 Net Div Yield (%) 3.6 6.2 6.4 6.8 - Non H shrs (m shs) 6,028 P/Book Value (X) 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.7 H shs as a % of Total 34 Net Debt/Equity (X) 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 Total Mkt Cap (HK$m/US$m) 70,995 / 9,047 ROAE(%) 10.4 10.2 9.9 10.0 Major Shareholders (%) Baoding Innovation Great Wall Asset Management Co., Earnings Rev (%): (30) New 84.9 Consensus EPS (RMB) 0.55 0.58 Ltd. Other Broker Recs: B: 8 S: 16 H: 14 Major H Shareholders (As % of H shares) 0 Source of all data on this page: Company, DBS Bank (Hong Kong) Limited H Shares-Free Float (%) 100.0 (“DBS HK”), Thomson Reuters 3m Avg. Daily Val. (US$m) 27.84 ICB Industry: Consumer Goods / Automobiles & Parts ed-JS/ sa- CS /AH Company Guide Great Wall Motor WHAT’S NEW New vehicle pipeline. GWM’s new vehicle strategy includes FY18 performance dragged by weak 2H18 extending its NEVs and traditional vehicles. It has two NEV models in the market under the ORA brand – ORA iQ and FY18 performance affected by poor 2H: 2H18 revenue fell ORA R1. It plans to launch the ORA R2 this year and a fuel c.16% y-o-y to Rmb50.5bn and gross profit plunged 31% to cell model by 2022. In the traditional vehicle segment, GWM Rmb7.6bn (GPM fell 3.3ppts to 15.1%, the lowest in recent will focus on developing its F-series SUV as well as the high- times). This was because the company had cut SUV prices to end WEY auto brand with the VV7 GT version this year. The clear inventory, when the overall vehicle market started to company targets to achieve 1.2m unit sales in 2019, an decline from July 18. Total SUV sales volume slipped 7% in increase of 14% y-o-y. But GWM had missed its sales targets 2H18 as the company had to adjust its production. As a in the past two years and 2019 may be a challenge, given the result, 2H18 net earnings plunged 42% y-o-y to Rmb1.5bn. current market condition. FY18 revenue fell 2% y-o-y to Rmb99.2bn and gross profit Cut FY19F earnings by 30%. We lowered FY19 earnings on dropped 7.6% to Rmb17.7bn, translating to GPM of 17.9% lower sales volume and profit margins assumptions (especially (down 1.1ppts). Net profit rose 3.6% to Rmb5.2bn, given that 1H19 is expected to remain challenging). We rolled attributable largely to a 31% decline in admin expense. over our valuation base to FY19F earnings and based on Vehicle sales volume slipped 1.6% to 1.05m, and missed its sector PE of 8x, we arrived at a TP of HK$5.60/H-share. The sales target by about 9%. stock offers c.6% yield. Given the lack of strong near-term catalysts, HOLD maintained. Financial position improved: GWM recorded a big upswing in operating cashflow from an outflow of Rmb1.1bn in FY17 to an inflow of Rmb10.9bn last year, as the company tightened collection. Net gearing ratio remains low at 14% at end December 2018. Page 2 Company Guide Great Wall Motor Great Wall Motor FY18 results performance RMB m 1H17 2H17 1H18 2H18 2H18 F Y17 F Y18 F Y18 v s Y-o-Y F Y17 % % Revenue 41,256 59,914 48,678 50,552 -15.6% 101,169 99,230 -1.9% Less: COGS (33,054) (48,913) (38,564) (42,917) -12.3% (81,967) (81,481) -0.6% Gross profit 8,201 11,001 10,114 7,635 -30.6% 19,203 17,749 -7.6% Taxes & surcharges (1,410) (2,496) (1,785) (1,842) -26.2% (3,906) (3,627) -7.1% Other income & gains 399 445 190 516 15.8% 845 706 -16.4% Selling & distribution cost (1,569) (2,837) (2,077) (2,498) -12.0% (4,406) (4,575) 3.8% Admin expense (2,310) (2,653) (1,519) (1,900) -28.4% (4,963) (3,420) -31.1% Other expense (149) (172) (184) (294) 71.6% (321) (478) 49.1% Operating profit 3,162 3,289 4,739 1,615 -50.9% 6,451 6,354 -1.5% Finance income (76) (142) (304) 427 nm (218) 123 -156.2% Pre-tax profit 3,086 3,147 4,434 2,043 -35.1% 6,233 6,477 3.9% Taxation (657) (533) (718) (511) -4.0% (1,190) (1,229) 3.4% Minority interest (9) (7) (21) (20) 184.0% (16) (40) 150.6% Attri net profit 2,420 2,608 3,696 1,512 -42.0% 5,027 5,207 3.6% EPS (RMB) 0.27 0.29 0.40 0.17 -42.0% 0.55 0.57 3.6% DPS (RMB) 0.17 0.29 70.6% Margins ppt chg.
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