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3Q19 Fundamentals Uplifted but Valuation Unattractive 2019年3季度基本面提振但估值不吸引

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股 票 研 [Table_Title] Company Report: Great Wall Motor (02333 HK) Toliver Ma 马守彰 究 (852) 2509 5317 Equity Research 公司报告： 长城汽车 (02333 HK) [email protected] 28 October 2019 [Table_Summary] 3Q19 Fundamentals Uplifted but Valuation Unattractive 2019年3季度基本面提振但估值不吸引 GWM’s 3Q19 net profit increased 506.8% yoy to RMB1,400 million, 公 Rating:[Table_Rank ] Reduce above market and our expectations. The better-than-expected results were Upgraded 司 mainly due to improvement in revenue, in which volume was up yoy by 12.4% and ASP up by 7.4% in 3Q19. Such improvement was contributed mainly 报 评级： 减持 (上调) from the Haval F7. On the other hand, GP margin was up by 3.5 ppts yoy and 告 2.6 ppts qoq. All in all, leading net profit per car rose to RMB6,073. 6[Table_Price-18m TP目标价] : HK$5.35 Company Report Our main concerns lie with growth sustainability in 2020. We are worried Revised from 原目标价: HK$3.65 about the fundamental improvement in 2020 as diminishing effect from the F7 and uncertainty on new car contributions, which also concerns SUVs. Share price 股价: HK$6.230 Moreover, the Company's strong reliance on SUVs may limit its growth potential due to pressure from JV brands. Stock performance We have revised upwards net profit forecasts for 2019 to 2021 by 14.9%/ 股价表现 13.7%/ 13.1%, respectively. We have fine-tuned our volume forecast, [Table_QuotePic] expecting GWM to meet management forecasts this year. We have also 80.0 % of return increased GP margin expectation in 2019 to 2021 after a rebound in 3Q19. 70.0 60.0 We upgrade our investment rating to "Reduce" and increase our TP to 证 50.0 HK$5.35 on earnings upgrade. The TP represents 9.5x 2019 PER and 9.2x 券 告 2020 PER. Despite strong improvement in 3Q19, we remain cautious on 40.0 growth in 2020 as the F7's full-year effect will diminish in 2020, and new 30.0 研 报 products will only be launched next year, with uncertainty on whether it can 20.0 究 究 bring in the same success as the F7. On the other hand, GWM is currently is 10.0 trading at a high valuation which is 2 S.D. above average, and we think is 报 0.0 研 unjustified. Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-19 Oct-19 告 长城汽车 第 季度净利润同比增长 至人民币 百万元，好于市场和 HSI Index GREAT WALL MOT-H 券 2019 年 3 506.8% 1,400 Equity Research Report 我们的预期。业绩好于预期主要是由于收入增长，其中 2019 年第 3 季度的销量同比增长 证 12.4%及平均售价同比增长 7.4%。改善主要来自哈弗 F7。另一方面，毛利率同比上升 3.5 [Table_PriceChange] 个百分点和环比上升 2.6 个百分点。总的来说，单台净利润上升至人民币 6,073 元。 Change in Share Price 1 M 3 M 1 Y [Tab 股价变动 1 个月 3 个月 1 年 我们主要关注的是 2020 年的增长可持续性。我们担心 2020 年的基本面改善是因为 F7 的 Abs. % 18.7 13.3 40.0 le_I 影响减弱，以及 SUV 中新车贡献的不确定性。此外，公司对 SUV 的依赖会因合资品牌的 绝对变动 % 压力而限制其增长潜力。 Rel. % to HS Index 15.1 18.6 31.2 汽nfo1 相对恒指变动 % Avg. Share price(HK$) 车 我们将 2019 年至 2021 年的净利润预测分别上调 14.9%/ 13.7%/ 13.1%。我们微调了销 5.3 5.2 5.2 ] 平均股价（港元） 量预测，预计长城汽车今年将达到管理层的目标。 在 2019 年 3 季度反弹之后，我们提高 及 Source: Bloomberg, Guotai Junan International. 了 2019 年至 2021 年的毛利率预测。 零 部 我们上调投资评级至“减持”，因调高盈利预测而上调目标价至 5.35 港元。目标价相当于 9.5 倍 2019 年市盈率和 9.2 倍 2020 年市盈率。尽管 2019 年第 3 季度有强劲改善，但我 件 们仍然对 2020 年的增长持谨慎态度，因 F7 的全年效应将在 2020 年消退，并且明年才推 行 出的新产品也不确定能否带来与 F7 一样的成功。另一方面，公司目前估值高于均值的两 业 个标准差，我们认为估值过高。 Automobiles & Components Sector Automobiles & Components Y[Table_ear End Turnover Net Profit EPS EPS PER BPS PBR DPS Yield ROE [Tab 年结Profit ] 收入 股东净利 每股净利 每股净利变动 市盈率 每股净资产 市净率 每股股息 股息率 净资产收益率 le_I 12/31 (RMB m) (RMB m) (RMB) (△ %) (x) (RMB) (x) (RMB) (%) (%) 2017A 101,169 5,027 0.551 (52.3) 9.4 5.397 1.0 0.170 3.3 10.4 nfo2 2018A 99,230 5,207 0.571 3.6 9.6 5.773 0.9 0.290 5.3 10.2 中] 2019F 99,382 4,623 0.506 (11.4) 11.1 6.076 0.9 0.207 3.7 8.6 2020F 104,018 4,774 0.523 3.4 10.7 6.364 0.9 0.240 4.3 8.4 长外 2021F 106,389 4,925 0.540 3.3 10.4 6.673 0.8 0.234 4.2 8.3 城运 总股数 9,127.3 大股东 汽 [Table_BaseData]Shares in issue (m) (m) Major shareholder Wei Jian Jun 34.9% 输 Market cap. (HK$ m) 市值 (HK$ m) 56,863.1 Free float (%) 自由流通比率(%) 车 65.1 个月平均成交股数 净负债 股东资金 3 month average vol. 3 (‘000) 21,510.1 FY19 Net gearing (%) FY19 / (%) 12.0 52 Weeks high/low (HK$) 52 周高/低 (HK$) 7.260 / 4.020 FY19 Est. NAV (HK$) FY19 每股估值（港元） 5.6 Source: the Company, Guotai Junan International. Great Wall MotorGreat Wall HK) (02333 See the last page for disclaimer Page 1 of 8 [Table_PageHeader]Great Wall Motor (02333 HK) 3Q19 RESULTS REVIEW ] 1 r a M t h g i R _ e l b a T [ Great Wall Motor’s ("GWM" or the "Company") 3Q19 net profit decreased 506.8% yoy to RMB1,400 million, above our expectations. The significant increase was mainly due to all-round improvement in profitability and having benefited from weak 3Q18 results. Key takeaways are as follows: Revenue increased by 18.0% yoy to RMB21,202 million. The increase was mainly due to an increase in sales volume of 12.4% yoy and a 7.4% yoy increase in ASP. The improvement mainly came from the F7 and the increase in sales proportion towards its coupe version (F7x) and the China 6 emission standard version has helped price increase. 28 October 2019 Gross margin was 18.5% in 3Q19, the best in the last five quarters. The better production efficiency also helped on improving gross margin, up by 3.5 ppts yoy and 2.6 ppts qoq. Operating margin was up by 6.4 ppts yoy to 7.5%in 3Q19. Besides the strong gross profit, the Company also benefited from stronger cost control, with selling and administrative expense ratio reduced yoy by 1.3 ppts and 1.8 ppts, respectively. R&D expense was RMB557 million, and the management revealed that capitalization rate was about 50% to 60%; we expect this to stay in this range in the future. The strong improvement has also been boosted by a significantly weak 3Q18, which was hurt by a number of events including the weakening auto market which started around Jul. 2018, huge price discount, low utilization and unusually large increase in marketing expense due to the FIFA World Cup. All of the abovementioned dragged margins to the lowest level since its listing. Net profit per car increased significantly, up by 440.0% yoy and 71.2% qoq to RMB6,073.] 2 r a M t h g i R _ e l b a T [ Table-1: Summary of 1-3Q19 Financial Results of GWM (in RMB mn, except per share item) 1-3Q19 1-3Q18 yoy 3Q19 3Q18 2Q19 yoy QoQ Key financials Total Revenue 62,578 66,645 (6.1%) 21,202 17,966 18,749 18.0% 13.1% Operating income 61,500 65,513 (6.1%) 21,183 17,555 18,231 20.7% 16.2% Interest income 1,006 1,111 (9.4%) 18 400 501 (95.5%) (96.4%) Fee and commission income 71 21 246.0% 0 12 17 (100.0%) (100.0%) Cost of sales 52,082 53,674 (3.0%) 17,269 15,259 15,750 13.2% 9.6% Gross profit 10,496 12,971 (19.1%) 3,933 2,707 2,999 45.3% 31.1% Business tax and surcharges 2,056 2,567 (19.9%) 719 780 619 (7.8%) 16.2% Selling expenses 2,351 3,050 (22.9%) 881 972 427 (9.4%) 106.5% Administrative expenses 1,294 1,385 (6.6%) 453 708 437 (36.0%) 3.7% R&D expenses 1,474 1,170 26.0% 557 328 492 69.9% 13.2% Finance expenses / (income) 108 603 (82.1%) -135 150 145 (190.5%) (193.3%) Operating profit 4,884 5,406 (9.7%) 1,601 209 983 664.8% 62.8% (02333 HK) Profit before taxation 3,585 4,707 (23.8%) 1,680 273 928 515.8% 81.0% Income tax expenses 633 748 (15.4%) 280 31 170 815.8% 64.5% Net profits 2,951 3,959 (25.4%) 1,400 242 758 478.0% 84.7% Net profit attributable to parent 2,917 3,927 (25.7%) 1,400 231 744 506.8% 88.2% 长城汽车 Basic EPS (RMB) 0.32 0.43 (25.7%) 0.15 0.03 0.08 506.8% 88.2% Operating Data Sales volume(unit) 724,113 676,688 7.0% 230,575 205,173 209,696 12.4% 10.0% Domestic Sales 673,719 640,670 5.2% 210,486 201,959 192,006 4.2% 9.6% Export 50,394 36,018 39.9% 20,089 12,597 17,690 59.5% 13.6% ASP(RMB) 84,931.98 96,814.30 (12.3%) 91,872.18 85,563.18 86,942.41 7.4% 5.7% Margins and ratios (%) ppt ppt ppt Gross profit margin(%) 16.8% 19.5% (2.7) 18.5% 15.1% 16.0% 3.5 2.6 Great Wall Motor OP Margin(%) 7.8% 8.1% (0.3) 7.5% 1.2% 5.2% 6.4 2.3 Net profit margin(%) 4.7% 5.9% (1.2) 6.6% 1.3% 4.0% 5.3 2.6 Selling costs to revenue 3.8% 4.6% (0.8) 4.2% 5.4% 2.3% (1.3) 1.9 Admin costs to revenue 2.1% 2.1% (0.0) 2.1% 3.9% 2.3% (1.8) (0.2) Effective tax rate 17.7% 15.9% 1.8 16.6% 11.2% 18.3% 5.5 (1.7) Source: the Company, Guotai Junan International.
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