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DB Access China Conference Strategy Update

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DB Access China Conference Strategy Update Deutsche Bank Markets Research Asia Strategy Date China 19 January 2018 DB Access China Conference Strategy Update Michael Tong, CFA Luka Zhu Research Analyst Research Analyst dbAccess China 2018: sector, (+852 ) 2203 6167 (+852 ) 2203 6173 company and tour highlights [email protected] [email protected] Deutsche Bank’s Access China 2018 conference, held in Beijing on 8-12 January, was attended by 650+ investors, 180+ corporates from China/HK, 50+ industry experts and macro speakers. We also organised 15 field trips and site visits across the country on 11-12 January. This document consolidates the research published by our analysts, which includes the macro tracks, companies, industry experts and tours. Macro highlights During the Access China conference, 27 invited guest speakers presented their views on the economic sector and policy issues. Autos/Infrastructure/Industrials/Transport Minth Group, Geely Auto, SAIC Motor, Yutong Bus, Zhongsheng Group, JONHON Optronic, CRSC, CRRC, NARI Tech, CNBM, Conch Venture, Anhui Conch Cement, Shenzhen Inovance, Beijing Cap Int'l Airport, and Sinotrans. Banking/Finance Agri. Bank of China, Bank of China, Bank of Communications, China Cinda, China CITIC Bank, China Construction Bank, China Life, China Merchants Bank, China Minsheng Bank, Chongqing Rural Bank, CEB, CPIC, Ping An Bank, ICBC, NCI, PICC Group, PICC P&C, Ping An, CITIC Securities – H, China Galaxy Securities – H, and Far East Horizon. Consumer/Lodging/Leisure/Healthcare China Mengniu Diary, China Modern Dairy, Hengan Intl, Gome, Shanghai Jahwa, Tingyi, Yili, Samsonite International S.A., Wuliangye Yibin, China CYTS Tours, BTG Hotels, China Travel, TravelSky, 3SBio, CSPC Pharma, China TCM Hengrui Medicine, Jointown Pharmaceuticals, Sinopharm Group, Sino Biopharmaceutical, Tonghua Dongbao, and The United Laboratories. Oil &Gas/Power/Utilities/Property China Oilfield Services, CNOOC Ltd, PetroChina, Sinopec, Sinopec Engineering Group, SPC, BEWG, Beijing Enterprises, China Gas Holdings, China Everbright Int'l, China Everbright Greentech, Guangdong Investment, CR Gas, ENN Energy, Huadian Fuxin, Huaneng Power Int’l, Longyuan Power, Yangtze Power, China Vanke, COLI, Aoyuan, Logan, KWG, and Sunac. Telecom/Internet/Technology/Metals & Mining China Mobile Corp Ltd, China Telecom Corp Ltd, China Unicom, Hikvision Digital, O-Film, Sunyway, Kstar, Tencent, Angang Steel, Baosteel, China Coal Energy, BBMG, Tianqi Lithium, and West China Cement. Industry experts During the conference, 50+ industry specialists presented their views on the outlook for and issues facing various sectors, including automobiles, banking/finance, consumer, energy, Industrials, metals & mining, property, power and environmental, technology, and transportation. ________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Deutsche Bank AG/Hong Kong Deutsche Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivityDistributed of on:this 18/01/2018 report. Investors 17:09:28 should GMT consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. MCI (P) 083/04/2017. THE CONTENT MAY NOT BE DISTRIBUTED IN THE PEOPLE’S REPUBLIC OF CHINA (“THE PRC”) (EXCEPT IN COMPLIANCE WITH THE APPLICABLE LAWS AND REGULATIONS OF PRC), EXCLUDING SPECIAL ADMINISTRATIVE REGIONS OF HONG KONG AND MACAU. 7T2se3r0Ot6kwoPa 19 January 2018 DB Access China Conference Table Of Contents Research Team Facebook ................................................... 6 Macro Highlights ............................................................... 16 Highlights of Macro Presentations ................................................................... 16 Automobiles & Components ............................................. 20 Minth Group (0425.HK, TP HKD 47.60, Buy, HKD 48.15) ................................. 20 Geely Auto (0175.HK, TP HKD 29.30, Hold, HKD 27.75) .................................. 21 SAIC Motor (600104.SS, TP CNY 30.50, Hold, CNY 33.88) .............................. 22 Yutong Bus (600066.SS, TP CNY 26.60, Buy, CNY 24.24) ................................ 23 Zhongsheng Group (0881.HK, TP HKD 15.7, Hold, HKD 20.85) ....................... 24 Banking / Finance .............................................................. 25 Agri. Bank of China (1288.HK, TP HKD 4.73, Buy, HKD 3.97) .......................... 25 Bank of China (3988.HK, TP HKD 5.25, Buy, HKD 3.99) ................................... 25 Bank of Communications (3328.HK, TP HKD 7.29, Hold, HKD 6.03) ................ 26 China Cinda (1359.HK, TP HKD 3.75, Buy, HKD 3.02) ...................................... 27 China CITIC Bank (0998.HK, TPHKD 5.28, Hold, HKD 5.44) ............................. 28 China Construction Bank (0939.HK, TP HKD 8.87, Buy, HKD 7.58) .................. 28 China Life (2628.HK, TP HKD 28.50, Hold, HKD 24.35) .................................... 29 China Merchants Bank (3968.HK, TP HKD 31.38, Hold, HKD 32.85) ................ 30 China Minsheng Bank (1988.HK, TP HKD 8.68, Hold, HKD 8.07) ..................... 31 Chongqing Rural Bank (3618.HK, TP HKD 7.00, Buy, HKD 5.91) ..................... 32 CEB (6818.HK, TP HKD 3.72, Hold, HKD 3.74) ................................................. 33 CPIC (2601.HK, TP HKD 51.00, Buy, HKD 37.35) ............................................. 34 Ping An Bank (000001.SZ, TP CNY 10.89, Hold, CNY 12.96) ........................... 34 ICBC (1398.HK, TP HKD 7.52, Buy, HKD 6.53) ................................................. 35 NCI (1336.HK, TP HKD 74.60, Buy, HKD 53.30) ............................................... 36 PICC Group (1339.HK, TP HKD 4.50, Hold, HKD 4.09) ..................................... 36 PICC P&C (2328.HK, TP HKD 16.60., Hold, HKD 15.80) ................................... 37 Ping An (2318.HK, TP HKD 104.10, Buy, HKD 82.25) ....................................... 38 CITIC Securities - H (6030.HK, TP HKD 21.10, Buy, HKD 17.54) ...................... 39 China Galaxy Securities - H (6881.HK, TP HKD 8.70, Buy, HKD 6.13) .............. 40 Far East Horizon (3360.HK, TP HKD 8.80, Buy, HKD 7.15) ............................... 40 Consumer .......................................................................... 42 China Mengniu Diary (2319.HK, TP HKD 26.80, Buy, HKD 24.20) .................... 42 China Modern Dairy (1117.HK, TP HKD 1.70, Hold, HKD 1.48) ........................ 42 Hengan Intl (1044.HK, TP HKD 97.29, Buy, HKD 81.35) ................................... 43 Gome (0493.HK, TP HKD 0.82, Hold, HKD 0.97) .............................................. 44 Shanghai Jahwa (600315.SS, TP CNY 30.04, Hold, CNY 35.16)....................... 45 Tingyi (0322.HK, TP HKD 13.28, Hold, HKD 15.50) .......................................... 46 Yili (600887.SS, TP CNY 35.00, Buy, CNY 34.62) ............................................. 46 Samsonite International S.A. (1910.HK, TP HKD 39.80, Buy, HKD 35.00) ........ 47 Wuliangye Yibin (000858.SZ, TP HKD 98.00, Buy, HKD 88.90) ........................ 48 Lodging/ Leisure ................................................................ 49 China CYTS Tours (600138.SS, TP CNY 20.00, Hold, CNY 21.86) .................... 49 BTG Hotels (600258.SS, TP CNY 35.00, Buy, CNY 29.35) ................................ 49 China Travel (HK) (0308.HK, TP HKD 3.10, Buy, HKD 2.79) .............................. 50 TravelSky (0696.HK, TP HKD 25.70, Buy, HKD 25.10) ...................................... 51 Healthcare ......................................................................... 52 3SBio (1530.HK, TP HKD 19.00, Buy, HKD 16.70) ............................................ 52 China TCM (0570.HK, TP HKD 4.70, Hold, HKD 4.55) ...................................... 52 CSPC Pharma (1093.HK, TP HKD 19.10 Buy, HKD 17.98) ................................ 53 Hengrui Medicine (600276.SS, TP CNY 78.10, Buy, CNY 71.25) ...................... 55 Jointown Pharmaceuticals (600998.SS, TP CNY 30.00, Buy, CNY 19.01) ........ 55 Page 2 Deutsche Bank AG/Hong Kong 19 January 2018 DB Access China Conference Table Of Contents (Cont'd) Sinopharm Group (1099.HK, TP HKD 34.30, Hold, HKD 34.20) ........................ 56 Sino Biopharmaceutical (1177.HK, TP HKD 16.80, Buy, CNY 14.10) ................ 57 Tonghua Dongbao (600867.SS, TP CNY 26.80, Buy, CNY 24.16) ..................... 59 The United Laboratories (3933.HK, TP HKD 6.30, Hold, HKD 6.27) .................. 59 Infrastructure / Industrials ................................................. 61 JONHON Optronic (002179.SZ, TP CNY 43.00 Buy, CNY 38.55) ...................... 61 CRSC (3969.HK, TP HKD 8.30 Buy, HKD 6.31) ................................................. 62 CRRC (1766.HK, TP HKD 9.00 Buy, HKD 8.45) ................................................. 63 NARI Tech (600406.SS, TP CNY 20.20, Buy, CNY 17.81) ................................. 64 Shenzhen Inovance (300124.SZ, TP HKD 34.30, Buy, HKD 28.30) ................... 65 Oil & Gas ............................................................................ 67 China Oilfield Services (2883.HK, TP HKD 9.13, Sell, HKD 8.80) ...................... 67 CNOOC Ltd (0883.HK, TP HKD 13.82, Buy, HKD 12.00) ................................... 68 PetroChina (0857.HK, TP HKD 5.77, Hold, HKD 5.80) ...................................... 69 Sinopec (0386.HK, TP HKD 7.44, Buy, HKD 6.23)
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