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Orient Securities Co. (3958.HK) August 29, 2016 EARNINGS REVIEW Orient Securities Co. (3958.HK) Neutral Equity Research In line with expectations: Sequential recovery led by trading, IB improved What surprised us Investment Profile DFZQ reported 2Q16 NPAT of Rmb860mn, 28%/17% of GSe/Bloomberg Low High consensus for 2016E NPAT. 1H profits are consistent with preliminary Growth Growth disclosure in August. 2Q16 profit declined -78% yoy, but sequentially grew Returns * Returns * 103% qoq, led by trading. ROE/ROA recovered to 10.3%/1.8% annualized in Multiple Multiple Volatility Volatility 2Q. Key positives: 1) IB income up 28% yoy to Rmb290bn, led by growth Percentile 20th 40th 60th 80th 100th in both ECM and DCM underwriting. Coupled with a strong 1Q, first-half IB Orient Securities Co. (3958.HK) income has been the strongest in the past few years. 2) Trading income Asia Pacific Banks Peer Group Average up 90% qoq from a very low base in 1Q16 on recovering investment yield, * Returns = Return on Capital For a complete description of the investment profile measures please refer to the even though still down 85% yoy. Revenue contribution from trading disclosure section of this document. decreased to 27% in 1H16, vs. 65% on average for FY13 to FY15. Principal investment book was flat at Rmb 49bn hoh with equity down to Rmb 6.2bn Key data Current Price (HK$) 8.21 and bond investment up; 3) Stock pledged lending balance rose 20% hoh 12 month price target (HK$) 9.20 Market cap (HK$ mn / US$ mn) 35,153.1 / 4,532.4 to Rmb 29bn despite weaker margin finance as the company shifts its Foreign ownership (%) -- focus to corporate client financing. Key negatives: 1) Brokerage revenue 12/15 12/16E 12/17E 12/18E -11% qoq, mainly on commission rate compression (-19%qoq/-23%yoy); EPS (Rmb) New 1.53 0.51 0.61 0.81 EPS revision (%) 0.0 (3.0) 0.4 1.4 brokerage market share rose slightly to 1.29% in 1H16. 2) AM income P/B (X) NM 1.1 1.0 0.9 -15% qoq/-69% yoy, driven by lower CAM fee rates, as a combined effect P/E (X) NM 14.0 11.6 8.7 Dividend yield (%) NM 2.3 3.0 4.0 of a smaller CAM AUM (-32% from YE15), and a lowered CAM fee rate of P/PPOP (X) 3.2 8.4 5.9 4.4 PPOP growth (%) 223.2 (62.0) 42.9 32.8 1.1% in 1H16 (vs 4.6% in FY15) likely due to the lower performance fees. Preprovision ROA (%) 6.0 1.7 2.3 2.8 Overall AUM up 4% hoh to Rmb112bn. ROA (%) 4.64 1.39 1.72 2.08 ROE (%) 27.5 7.6 8.9 11.0 What to do with the stock We think DFZQ is on track to diversify its revenue mix from volatile trading Price performance chart to AM, IB, and capital intermediary business, though trading remains the 8.6 10,200 key earning driver in the near-term. We fine-tune 16E/17E/18E NPAT by 8.5 9,900 -3%/0%/+1% on higher IB market share, lower AM fee rate, and lower 8.4 9,600 brokerage commission rate assumptions. We maintain our Neutral rating 8.3 9,300 and 12-m PB/ROE-based TP at HK$9.20. Upside risks: Better-than-expected 8.2 9,000 ADT/ margin finance balance, prop trading volatility; downside risks: 8.1 8,700 Market share losses in brokerage/ underwriting, prop trading volatility. 8.0 8,400 DFZQ 2Q16 results snapshot May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 Orient Securities Co. (L) Hang Seng China Ent. Index (R) Commission Rate (bps) 5.24 4.37 4.57 3.69 ROE 0.4% 16.9% 4.9% 10.3% Source: Company data Share price performance (%) 3 month 6 month 12 month Absolute -- -- -- INVESTMENT LIST MEMBERSHIP Rel. to Hang Seng China Ent. Index -- -- -- Neutral Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates, FactSet. Price as of 8/26/2016 close. Coverage View: Neutral Nan Li, CFA +86(10)6627-3021 [email protected] Beijing Gao Hua Securities Company Limited Goldman Sachs does and seeks to do business with companies Lucy Li covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be +65-6654-5426 [email protected] Goldman Sachs (Singapore) Pte aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could Shuo Yang, Ph.D affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider +86(10)6627-3463 [email protected] Beijing Gao Hua Securities Company Limited this report as only a single factor in making their investment Wendy Chen +65-6654-5218 [email protected] Goldman Sachs (Singapore) Pte decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. Analysts employed by non- US affiliates are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA in the U.S. The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. Global Investment Research August 29, 2016 Orient Securities Co. (3958.HK) Orient Securities Co.: Summary Financials Profit model (Rmb mn) 12/15 12/16E 12/17E 12/18E Balance sheet (Rmb mn) 12/15 12/16E 12/17E 12/18E Investment banking fees 894.8 1,196.6 1,265.5 1,429.4 Cash & equivalents 55,343.5 50,385.6 54,387.6 61,646.7 Commissions 3,465.3 1,822.1 1,956.7 2,058.4 Cash and securities for reg. -- -- -- -- Principal transactions 9,341.9 2,363.6 3,528.5 4,605.1 Total securities 91,824.9 94,216.0 98,902.4 103,823.1 Asset management 1,396.0 874.5 1,072.2 1,343.0 Repos 26,498.2 34,944.8 42,283.2 51,162.7 Other 700.1 989.0 1,345.5 1,637.5 Securities borrowed -- -- -- -- Net interest income (258.8) (253.3) 681.9 1,565.1 Broker receivables -- -- -- -- Credit card fee -- -- -- -- Customer receivables 0.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 Provision for consumer loans 0.4 1.4 (273.3) (360.7) Other receivables 1,535.4 1,630.8 1,797.9 1,982.2 Net revenue 15,539.3 6,992.5 9,850.2 12,638.5 Total receivables 1,535.4 1,630.8 1,798.9 1,984.2 Personnel/compensation (3,826.7) (1,716.1) (2,712.0) (3,452.6) Property plant and equipment, net 1,643.7 1,864.6 2,055.7 2,266.5 Tot. non-int. exp. (inc. loan loss prov.) (6,040.3) (3,380.3) (4,964.2) (6,148.1) Intangibles 128.7 125.2 125.2 125.2 Income/(loss) from uncons. subs. 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Other assets 30,923.2 29,687.6 33,169.8 38,339.0 Profit/loss on disposal of assets 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total assets 207,897.6 212,854.7 232,722.0 259,345.4 Total other net 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Pretax profit 9,499.1 3,612.2 4,886.0 6,490.4 Comm. paper and short-term debt 18,979.8 11,720.1 13,536.8 15,634.9 Provision for income taxes (2,124.9) (614.6) (977.2) (1,298.1) Deposits 43,193.3 41,899.8 43,480.2 48,072.5 Minority interest (48.9) (68.7) (83.3) (81.8) Total securities sold, not bought 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Net income pre-pref. dividends 7,325.2 2,929.0 3,825.4 5,110.4 Repos 47,880.1 47,565.3 54,937.9 63,453.2 Preferred dividends 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Securities loaned -- -- -- -- Net income pre-exceptionals 7,325.2 2,929.0 3,825.4 5,110.4 Other 0.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 Post tax exceptionals 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Brokers payables -- -- -- -- Net income post tax exceptionals 7,325.2 2,929.0 3,825.4 5,110.4 Customer payables 43,193.3 41,899.8 43,480.2 48,072.5 EPS (pre-exceptionals,basic) (Rmb) 1.53 0.51 0.61 0.81 Total payables 67,574.9 56,693.5 61,357.0 69,867.9 EPS (diluted, pre-except) (Rmb) 1.53 0.51 0.61 0.81 Accrued expenses & other liabs. 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total long-term debt 52,347.9 59,352.6 62,320.3 65,436.3 DPS (Rmb) 0.45 0.16 0.21 0.28 Other liabilities 4,718.9 6,973.6 9,036.8 11,746.4 BVPS (Rmb) 6.62 6.62 7.07 7.66 Total liabilities 172,521.8 170,584.9 187,651.9 210,503.8 Tangible BVPS (Rmb) 6.67 6.68 7.12 7.72 Capital units & pref securities -- -- -- -- Preferred stock 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total common equity 34,958.1 41,779.6 44,579.9 48,351.4 Minority interest 417.6 490.2 490.2 490.2 Total stockholders' equity 35,375.7 42,269.8 45,070.1 48,841.6 Growth & margins (%) 12/15 12/16E 12/17E 12/18E Net revenue growth 180.3 (55.0) 40.9 28.3 Total liabilities & equity 207,897.6 212,854.7 232,722.0 259,345.4 Net income growth 212.8 (60.0) 30.6 33.6 EPS growth 180.1 (67.0) 20.0 33.6 Pretax margin 61.1 51.7 49.6 51.4 After tax margin 47.1 41.9 38.8 40.4 Ratios (%) 12/15 12/16E 12/17E 12/18E Net interest income growth 66.1 2.1 369.2 129.5 ROA 4.6 1.4 1.7 2.1 ROE 27.1 7.5 8.8 10.9 Note: Last actual year may include reported and estimated data.
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