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China Securities China Financials 14 August 2017 China Securities Normalisation of regulations on the horizon CSRC has upgraded the risk classification rating for a few listed securities firms, including CITICS and HTS, to AA from BBB We see this as an important signal that previously over-tightened regulations in the China Securities Sector are being relaxed Current valuations suggest strong option value; reiterating our Positive Leon Qi, CFA (852) 2532 4381 sector stance; our top sector pick is CITICS [email protected] What’s new: China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) announced Major securities firms: CSRC regulatory rating (2014-2017) the latest 2017 regulatory rating classification for China securities firms on Net assets CSRC rating 2014 2015 2016 2017 14 August 2017. The ratings of a few major listed securities firms, including ranking* CITICS and HTS, have been upgraded from BBB to AA in the latest review. CITICS 1 AA AA BBB AA HTS 2 AA AA BBB AA GTJA 3 AA AA AA AA What’s the impact: CSRC’s securities firm rating classification system Huatai 4 AA AA BBB AA is based on annual reviews of securities firms’ level of compliance with GFS 5 AA AA BBB AA regulations, capability of risk management, and market competitiveness. In CMS 6 AA AA AA AA CGS 7 AA AA A AA June 2017, CSRC revised its scoring system and introduced new bonus Shenwan Hongyuan 8 AA AA AA AA points based on the securities firms’ operating metrics such as revenue Everbright Securities 9 C A AA A scale, overseas business contribution, investment banking, etc. Guosen 10 AA AA BBB A CSC 11 AA AA AA AA Orient Securities 12 AA AA AA A Leading players are back to top rating. Back in July 2016, the CSRC Source: CSRC, SAC, Daiwa ratings of many securities firms were downgraded, including CITICS and Note: net assets ranking as at end-2016 HTS (both from AA to BBB), as a result of their non-compliance in innovative businesses and some account-opening violations. The downgrade had negatively affected their capital and liquidity requirements, and cost of funding. The rating upgrades this time under the revised scoring system reflect their strong business competitiveness and improved risk management. They should also benefit in both capital and liquidity requirements with a potentially lower funding cost, in our view. Warm breeze from CSRC. More importantly, we think this upgrade for multiple major securities firms reflects that the regulatory environment for the China Securities sector has already passed its toughest period and is being gradually normalised, if it is still too early to call it a deregulation. It is likely that the overly-strict measures imposed since 2H15 would be gradually normalised; this would help improve the currently overwhelmingly bearish market expectation on capital market reform. What we recommend: We recently upgraded our sector rating on the China Securities Sector from Neutral to Positive (See Option value emerging, 21 July 2017, and “Support fund” normalisation has begun, 14 August 2017). Given the sector had been a major laggard and the current sector valuation implies further deterioration in capital market conditions, any potential normalisation in regulation or stock market turnover rebound could lead to a sector re-rating, while the downside scenario is already priced in and hence limited. We see an attractive call option in securities stocks and our top pick is CITICS (6030 HK, HKD16, Buy [1]). We also like Huatai (6886 HK, HKD15.72, Buy [1]) and Haitong (6837 HK, HKD12.64, Outperform [2]). Key risk: further and prolonged regulatory tightening. How we differ: Despite the market’s pessimistic outlook on developments on the regulatory front, we believe the toughest moment is over. See important disclosures, including any required research certifications, beginning on page 3 China Securities: 14 August 2017 CITICS: 12-month rolling forward PBR and share price HTS: 12-month rolling forward PBR and share price 2.8 Rolling PBR (x) Price (HKD) 40 2.2 Rolling PBR (x) Price (HKD) 30 2.0 2.4 25 30 1.8 20 2.0 1.6 20 15 1.6 1.4 10 10 1.2 1.2 1.0 5 0.8 0 0.8 0 Feb-13 Feb-14 Feb-15 Feb-16 Feb-17 Feb-13 Feb-14 Feb-15 Feb-16 Feb-17 Nov-16 Aug-12 Nov-12 Aug-13 Nov-13 Aug-14 Nov-14 Aug-15 Nov-15 Aug-16 Aug-17 Aug-12 Nov-14 Nov-16 Nov-12 Aug-13 Nov-13 Aug-14 Aug-15 Nov-15 Aug-16 Aug-17 May-15 May-13 May-14 May-16 May-17 May-15 May-17 May-13 May-14 May-16 One-year forward rolling PBR Average PBR One-year forward rolling PBR Average PBR -1SD +1SD -1SD +1SD Price (RHS) Price (RHS) Source: Bloomberg, Daiwa Source: Bloomberg, Daiwa: Global investment banks: valuation comparison Company Ticker Rating Market cap Current PBR PER ROE (%) ROA (%) Leverage (x) (USDbn) price FY17 FY18 FY19 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY17 FY18 FY19 CHINA - H SHARE CITICS 6030 HK Buy 30 15.94 1.1 1.0 0.9 12.6 10.6 9.9 8.9 9.9 9.8 2.1 2.2 2.0 4.3 4.6 4.8 HTS 6837 HK Outperform 23 12.58 1.1 1.0 0.9 12.2 9.9 9.3 8.9 10.2 10.2 1.8 2.1 2.0 5.0 4.9 5.1 GTJA 2611 HK Buy 25 16.64 1.0 1.0 0.9 11.3 9.8 8.3 9.6 10.1 11.0 2.5 2.7 2.9 3.9 3.7 3.8 GFS 1776 HK Hold 18 15.58 1.2 1.1 1.0 11.8 10.1 8.6 10.6 11.5 12.5 2.4 2.7 3.0 4.4 4.3 4.2 Huatai 6886 HK Buy 19 15.60 1.1 1.0 0.9 11.7 10.0 8.5 9.4 11.0 11.4 1.9 2.3 2.4 4.9 4.8 4.8 CGS 6881 HK Outperform 15 6.80 0.9 0.8 0.8 10.4 8.8 8.4 8.9 9.8 9.6 2.1 2.3 2.2 4.2 4.3 4.4 CMS 6099 HK Hold 17 12.16 1.1 1.0 0.9 11.9 9.9 9.2 9.4 10.6 10.6 2.4 2.8 2.8 3.9 3.8 3.8 CSC 6066 HK Buy 6 7.00 0.9 0.8 0.7 7.7 6.7 6.4 12.6 12.8 11.9 2.9 3.0 2.9 4.4 4.3 4.1 Orient Securities 3958 HK NR 13 7.72 1.0 0.9 0.8 13.2 11.2 10.1 7.8 8.6 10.5 1.5 1.7 1.9 5.1 5.1 5.6 Everbright Securities 6178 HK NR 10 10.52 0.8 0.8 0.8 12.6 11.1 9.9 6.8 8.1 8.3 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a CICC 3908 HK NR 7 12.88 1.2 1.1 1.0 11.5 10.7 8.6 11.8 11.1 11.7 2.2 2.0 2.0 5.4 5.6 5.8 Haitong Intl 665 HK NR 3 4.55 1.0 0.9 0.9 10.1 8.8 7.8 9.9 10.6 11.3 1.8 1.9 1.9 5.7 5.7 5.9 Guotai Junan Intl 1788 HK NR 2 2.45 1.9 1.7 1.5 13.9 12.5 10.5 13.9 14.9 15.9 2.7 2.7 2.4 5.1 5.5 6.7 Sector 182 1.0 1.0 0.9 11.8 10.0 9.0 9.3 10.3 10.6 2.0 2.2 2.3 4.2 4.2 4.3 CHINA - A SHARE CITICS 600030 CH NR 30 16.87 1.4 1.3 1.2 16.9 14.7 12.3 8.0 8.8 10.0 1.9 2.1 2.3 4.1 4.2 4.2 HTS 600837 CH NR 23 14.45 1.4 1.3 1.2 18.0 15.5 13.4 8.2 8.9 9.3 1.7 1.9 2.1 4.9 4.8 4.5 GTJA 601211 CH NR 25 19.94 1.5 1.4 1.3 15.7 13.7 11.0 10.7 11.7 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a GFS 000776 CH NR 18 16.92 1.5 1.4 1.3 14.2 12.5 10.8 10.8 11.3 11.9 2.6 2.7 2.9 4.2 4.2 4.1 Huatai 601688 CH NR 19 18.68 1.5 1.4 1.3 18.8 16.4 14.5 8.1 8.7 9.5 1.8 1.9 2.0 4.5 4.6 4.7 CGS 601881 CH NR 15 12.24 1.8 1.7 1.2 20.5 19.1 14.9 9.6 9.6 9.1 2.2 2.2 2.4 4.4 4.3 3.9 CMS 600999 CH NR 17 17.57 1.8 1.7 1.5 20.0 17.2 14.2 9.6 10.5 11.1 2.5 2.7 3.2 3.9 3.9 3.5 Guosen 002736 CH NR 17 13.49 2.1 1.9 2.0 21.4 18.6 15.0 10.4 11.0 12.1 2.5 2.6 2.7 4.2 4.3 4.5 Shenwan Hongyuan 000166 CH NR 17 5.68 1.8 1.6 1.1 20.4 17.2 13.5 10.9 10.8 8.6 2.2 2.3 2.3 4.9 4.7 3.8 Everbright Securities 601788 CH NR 10 14.77 1.3 1.2 1.0 20.5 17.8 15.5 6.8 7.1 6.6 2.0 2.1 1.9 3.4 3.4 3.4 Industrial Securities 601377 CH NR 8 7.64 1.5 1.4 1.2 19.7 16.9 15.9 7.2 7.9 8.0 1.7 1.7 1.7 4.2 4.6 4.6 Changjiang Securities 000783 CH NR 8 9.32 1.9 1.7 1.4 20.8 18.3 14.9 9.2 9.7 9.8 2.4 2.6 2.8 3.9 3.8 3.5 Sinolink Securities 600109 CH NR 5 11.25 1.7 1.7 1.4 22.8 19.5 14.4 8.1 9.0 10.6 3.0 3.4 3.9 2.7 2.7 2.7 Sector 210 1.6 1.5 1.3 18.5 16.1 13.4 9.2 9.8 8.7 1.9 2.0 2.2 3.8 3.7 3.6 REGIONAL Nomura Holdings 8604 JP Outperform 23 643 0.8 0.7 0.7 9.5 9.1 8.4 8.4 8.6 8.7 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a Daiwa Securities 8601 JP NR 10 625 0.8 0.8 0.7 10.7 10.1 10.1 7.6 7.8 7.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 16.2 14.6 14.7 Yuanta Financial 2885 TT NR 5 12.95 0.7 0.7 0.7 10.7 9.6 8.9 7.1 7.7 8.1 0.6 0.6 0.5 11.7 13.1 16.4 Samsung Securities 016360 KS NR 3 36,800 0.7 0.7 0.7 13.2 12.1 10.6 5.8 5.9 6.3 0.7 0.7 0.7 8.5 8.2 8.5 Daewoo Securities 006800 KS NR 6 10,100 0.8 0.8 0.8 14.5 12.8 11.6 6.0 6.4 7.0 0.7 0.7 0.7 8.8 9.3 9.9 Sector 46 0.8 0.7 0.7 10.8 10.0 9.4 7.6 7.9 8.0 0.3 0.3 0.3 6.4 6.2 6.7 GLOBAL Goldman Sachs GS US Hold 91 225.50 1.2 1.1 1.0 12.3 11.2 10.1 10.0 10.2 10.7 0.9 0.9 0.9 11.6 11.6 11.8 UBS UBSG VX NR 66 16.39 1.1 1.1 1.1 12.4 11.3 10.3 8.2 9.5 10.5 0.4 0.6 0.6 18.4 16.8 17.0 Morgan Stanley MS US Hold 85 46.30 1.2 1.1 1.0 13.4 11.7 10.6 9.2 9.9 10.6 0.8 0.8 0.9 12.1 11.9 11.9 Credit Suisse Group CSGN VX NR 38 14.36 0.8 0.8 0.7 18.3 11.8 9.1 4.6 7.2 8.5 0.2 0.4 0.5 22.7 20.7 18.9 Lazard LAZ US NR 6 42.96 4.0 3.7 2.8 12.1 11.7 11.0 37.2 37.9 n/a 9.3 10.1 n/a 4.0 3.8 n/a Sector 285 1.2 1.1 1.0 13.4 11.4 10.2 9.1 10.1 10.1 0.8 0.9 0.8 14.6 14.0 13.7 Source: Bloomberg, Daiwa Note: Daiwa forecasts for CITICS, HTS, GTJA, GFS, Huatai, CGS, CMS and CSC H-shares; Bloomberg consensus for other stocks; priced as at 11 August 2017.
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