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Great Wall Motor 2333 HK BNP PARIBAS Victoria Li Great Wall Motor 2333 HK BNP PARIBAS Victoria Li 15 DECEMBER 2015 CHINA / AUTOMOBILES & COMPONENTS GREAT WALL MOTOR 2333 HK TARGET PRICE HKD9.59 HOW WE DIFFER FROM CONSENSUS MARKET RECS CLOSE HKD9.33 TARGET PRICE (%) (15.9) POSITIVE 23 HOLD UP/DOWNSIDE +2.8% EPS 2015 (%) 2.5 NEUTRAL 5 FROM BUY PRIOR TP HKD7.78 EPS 2016 (%) (0.9) NEGATIVE 5 CHANGE IN TP 23.21% KEY STOCK DATA Lack of new drivers YE Dec (RMB m) 2014A 2015E 2016E 2017E 2016 to be a better year with demand recovery Revenue 62,600 68,045 79,454 87,553 We estimate China PV sales volume growth would improve to 7.1% Rec. net profit 8,042 8,761 10,417 11,511 y-y in 2016E (2015E: 5.4%), mostly driven by the APT cut and the Recurring EPS (RMB) 0.88 0.96 1.10 1.12 revival of delayed purchase interest. SUV segment should continue Prior rec. EPS (RMB) 0.88 0.95 1.04 1.00 to grow fast at 35% y-y. Both would benefit GWM’s sales volume. Chg. In EPS est. (%) 0.0 1.1 5.6 12.4 However, GWM’s facing more challenges than peers EPS growth (%) (2.2) 8.9 14.2 2.4 Although GWM shall be the biggest beneficiary in our coverage Recurring P/E (x) 8.8 8.1 7.1 6.9 according to its sales volume exposure to 1.6L-and-below engines, Dividend yield (%) 3.4 3.4 3.6 4.0 its earnings growth would be weaker than its peers, such as Geely EV/EBITDA (x) 5.9 5.4 4.4 4.0 and Changan. The key reasons for relatively weak growth are: 1) Price/book (x) 2.1 1.8 1.6 1.4 GWM would have fewer new models to drive its volume in 2016E, 2) It faces margin pressure with new capacity coming, and 3) pricing Net debt/Equity (%) (9.9) (11.4) (15.3) (20.5) pressure with more new competitor models to be launched 2016E. ROE (%) 26.2 23.9 23.9 22.3 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 Dec-15 Earnings forecast revised up on better SUV growth… 20 90 We increase GWM’s earnings in 2015-17E by 1%, 6% and 12% y-y, 16 45 on expected better SUV sales. In 2016, we estimate slightly higher 11 0 ASP y-y on more volume contribution from high-priced SUVs. 7 (45) 2 (90) (HKD) (%) …but priced in; downgrade to HOLD Great Wall Motor Rel to MSCI China We believe current share price of GWM has fully factored in its Share price performance 1 Month 3 Month 12 Month leading position in SUV segment and potential earnings growth next Absolute (%) (4.8) 22.0 (30.8) year. Our new P/E-based TP is HKD9.59, based on 7x P/E 2016E (from prev. 6x to factor in a better sector outlook which is a key driver Relative to country (%) 1.2 22.5 (23.7) of GWM’s earnings growth), indicating 3% upside from current levels. Next Results March 2016 Mkt cap (USD m) 3,662 Trading at 8.4x P/E on 2015E BBG consensus vs. historical 6.7x 3m avg daily turnover (USD m) 47.9 Free float (%) 44 (x) 15 Major shareholder Mr. Wei Jianjun (56%) 12m high/low (HKD) 19.92/2.38 10 +1 sd = 9.5 3m historic vol. (%) 342.3 Mean = 6.7 ADR ticker - 5 -1 sd = 3.9 ADR closing price (USD) - Issued shares (m) 3,042 0 Jan-09 Jan-11 Jan-13 Jan-15 Sources: FactSet estimates; BNP Paribas estimates Source: Bloomberg Victoria Li [email protected] +852 2825 1135 Our research is available on Thomson One, Bloomberg, TheMarkets.com, FactSet and on http://eqresearch.bnpparibas.com/index. Please contact your salesperson for authorisation. Please see the important notice on the back page. PREPARED AND PUBLISHED BY NON-US BROKER-DEALER(S): BNP PARIBAS SECURITIES (ASIA) LTD. THIS MATERIAL HAS BEEN APPROVED FOR U.S DISTRIBUTION. ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES CAN BE FOUND AT APPENDIX ON PAGE 7 Great Wall Motor 2333 HK Victoria Li Investment thesis Catalyst Our new forecasts for y-y SUV growth in 2015-16E are 50% Catalysts include monthly sales volume data of major car and 35%, vs. previous 40% and 25% respectively, (sector models, launches of new car models, quarterly financial average: 5.4% and 7.1% respectively). The two-child policy, results. officially launched in Oct 2015, may fuel up the sales growth Risk to our call of SUV, because 5-and-above passengers can sit inside comfortably for travels (one couple, two kids and one of their Downside risks include weaker-than-expected sales of the grandparents), and the sales contribution from 7-seat SUV H7 and the new mini-SUV or a delay in their launch may increase, in our view. schedule; further prices cuts for gaining market share; lower than expected margins due to the upcoming new capacity; Although GWM will benefit from strong demand on SUVs and and unexpected increase in R&D cost for the development APT cut, its weak new model pipeline would limit the of NEV models. company’s earnings growth in 2016E. Upside risks mainly are better than expected sales volume; and better than expected cost control. We think GWM’s valuation has fully factored in its earnings growth in the next few years, after recent rally. Our new P/E- based TP is HKD9.59, based on 7x P/E 2016 (previously 6x P/E), indicating only 1% upside from current share price. Company background Key assumptions Great Wall Motor (GWM)'s history dates back to 1984, when 2015E 2016E 2017E it was in the business of modifying automobiles. It started Sales volume ('000 units) pick-up truck production and sales in 1997 and launched an Pickups 98.0 78.4 78.4 SUV in 2002. From June 2003, the company has become the SUVs 681.2 821.4 925.5 largest pickup and SUV manufacturer in China. GWM also Sedans 51.4 25.7 12.8 researches and develops, and manufactures principal automotive parts and components for use in pick-up trucks Other (%) and SUVs. Gross margin-Automobiles 27.0 27.0 27.0 R&D expense as % of sales 3.5 3.5 3.5 Sources: Great Wall Motor; BNP Paribas estimates 2015E grossprofit breakdown by product Earnings sensitivity – 2015E Gross margin ------------------ Sales volume ------------------ Other vehicle Sedan 0.0% Pickup (EPS chg, %) Automobiles Pickup SUV Sedan 4.5% 8.8% +5% 7.16 0.73 7.18 0.37 +1% 1.43 0.15 1.44 0.07 -1% (1.43) (0.15) (1.44) (0.07) -5% (7.16) (0.73) (7.18) (0.37) SUV 86.7% Source: BNP Paribas estimates Sources: Great Wall Motor; BNP Paribas estimates Key executives Age Joined Title At end-2014, GWM had about 800 dealerships in China Wei Jianjun 49 1984 Chairman Liu Ping Fu 63 2001 Vice Chairman We expect this figure to increase to 850 in 2015 and to Wang Feng Ying 42 1991 General Manager remain flat in 2016 http://www.gwm.com.cn 2 BNP PARIBAS 15 DECEMBER 2015 Great Wall Motor 2333 HK Victoria Li In 2016E, we expect GWM’s car sales volume to grow by only 11% y-y, in which its SUV sales growth would be 20% y-y, weaker than its major Chinese brands’ peers (such as Geely, Changan). The key reasons include 1) GWM will have only 2 new models to be launched in 2016E, fewer than competitors; 2) sales volume of its newly launched models in 2015E, Haval H8 and H6 Coupe, has been much weaker than expected YTD; more likely the recent new launches would not be able to drive GWM’s volume in 2016E, in our view; 3) increasing competition from peers’ new SUV models, such as Changan’s CS15 (Feb 2016, competes with Haval H1), Geely Boyue (1Q16, competes with Haval H6), BYD Song (Oct 2015, competes with Haval H6). We expect GWM’s ASP to go up in 2016E, due to bigger volume contribution from high price models. But margin would remain under pressure, with additional 500 thousand units’ capacity coming. As a result, we estimate GWM’s EPS growth would be only 14% y-y in 2016E, only better than Brilliance China (1114 HK) in our China OEM coverage. Exhibit 1:New model pipeline 2015-2017E OEM Launching date Model Type GWM Apr-15 Haval H8 SUV Apr-15 Haval H6 Coupe SUV 2Q16 Haval H7 SUV 2H16 Mini-SUV (Close to H2) Mini SUV 3Q16 Haval H6(Blue label) SUV 3Q16 Haval H2(Blue label) SUV Sources: Great Wall Motor; BNP Paribas Exhibit 2: Better SUV products mix after new model launches Exhibit 3: High ASP in 2016E due to SUV mix improvement Haval H7 Haval H6 Mini-SUV ('000 units) SUV sales volume (LHS) ('000 RMB/unit) (%) Haval H2 Haval H1 Haval M Series ASP (RHS) Others 1,000 86 100 900 90 84 800 80 700 70 82 600 60 500 80 50 40 400 78 30 300 200 20 76 10 100 0 0 74 2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E 2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E Note: Model ranked from top(less expensive) to bottom (More expensive) excluding Source: Great Wall Motor (including estimates) ‘‘others’’ in the chart Source: Great Wall Motor (including estimates) 3 BNP PARIBAS 15 DECEMBER 2015 Great Wall Motor 2333 HK Victoria Li Exhibit 4: Net margin to remain stable in 2016-2017E (RMB m) Revenue(LHS) Net margin (RHS) (%) 90,000 16 80,000 15 70,000 60,000 14 50,000 13 40,000 30,000 12 20,000 11 10,000 0 10 2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E Sources: Great Wall Motor; BNP Paribas estimates Exhibit 5: Earning forecast revision -------------- Previous forecast -------------- ---------------- New forecast ---------------- ------------- Change to forecast ------------- 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2015E 2016E 2017E Sales volume (unit) (unit) (unit) (unit) (unit) (unit) (unit) (%) (%) (%) Sedan 87,479 46,388 22,769 11,384 51,436 25,653 12,826 10.9 12.7 12.7 SUV 523,208 679,790 840,070 865,834 681,200 821,400 925,530 0.2 (2.2) 6.9 Pick-up 121,602 97,282 77,825 77,825 98,000 78,400 78,400 0.7 0.7 0.7 (RMB m) (RMB m) (RMB m) (RMB m) (RMB m) (RMB m) (RMB m) (%) (%) (%) Revenue 62,600 67,631 78,796 76,751 68,045 79,454 87,553 0.6 0.8 14.1 Gross profit 15,066 15,801 18,558 17,931 15,898 18,563 20,454 0.6 0.0 14.1 Gross margin (%) 24.1 23.4 23.6 23.4 23.4 23.4 23.4 (0 ppt) (0.2 ppt) (0 ppt) SG&A (3,336) (3,515) (4,096) (3,990) (3,537) (3,971) (4,376) 0.6 (3.0) 9.7 SG&A/sales (%) 5.3 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.0 5.0 0 ppt (0.2 ppt) (0.2 ppt)
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