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Expect Better H6 and H7 Sales, Maintain “Buy”

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Expect Better H6 and H7 Sales, Maintain “Buy” Company Report: Great Wall Motor (02333 HK) Toliver Ma 马守彰 公司报告：长城汽车 (02333 HK) +852 2509 5317 [email protected] 国泰君安研究 27 October 2016 Expect Better H6 and H7 Sales, Maintain “Buy” 预期较好的H6及H7销售，维持“买入” GTJA Research GTJA 1-3Q16 net profit up 16.1% yoy to RMB 7,209 mn, in line with market Rating: Buy consensus, but better than our expectations. Overall vehicle sales grew Maintained 17.6% yoy in 1-3Q16, driven by strong SUV growth, particularly relying on its 评级： 买入 (维持) flagship Haval H6. Gross margin decreased 0.8ppts to 23.8% compared to 3Q15, mainly due to lower selling price for new products to boost sales but hurt margin, and more promotional expenses initiated in the 3Q. 6-18m TP 目标价: HK$9.44 Revised from 原目标价: HK$9.29 We revise up EPS (basic) by 2.3%, 4.3% and 6.8% during 2016-2018 on better margin expectation. We have fine tuned our sales expectation on Share price 股价： HK$7.760 Haval H7 and H6 for current year. We largely agree with the downward trend of gross profit margin due to mounting competition, but we believe margin will Stock performance drop less than our previous expectation due to better sales on high margins 股价表现 for Haval H6. 20.0 % of return We maintain our investment rating as “Buy”. Although facing fierce 10.0 competition in the SUV market, we believe GWM has an arsenal of strategies 0.0 to defend its share, including product upgrades, promotional activities and (10.0) improving customer experience. Gross margin is expected to decrease but we expect the magnitude is well controlled by the management especially (20.0) when volume is rising in 2016, which should benefit from better utilization. We (30.0) revise up TP to HK$9.44, representing 8.5x 2016 PER, 8.0x 2017 PER, 1.7x (40.0) 2016 PBR and 1.4x 2017 PBR. ) (50.0) 2016 首 3 季度净利润同比增长 16.1％至人民币 7,209 百万元，与市场预期一致，但好于 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 我们的预期。总体汽车销量在首 3 季度同比增长 17.6％，受强劲的 SUV 增长所带动，尤 HSI Great Wall Mot-H 02333 HK ( 其依赖于哈弗 H6。第 3 季度毛利率较同期下降 0.8 个百分点至 23.8%;主要是因新产品有 较低的价格来促进销售，但损害了利润率，及在第三季度发起了更多的推广费用。 Change in Share Price 1 M 3 M 1 Y 因预期更好的毛利率，我们对 2016-2018 年基本每股收益分别上调 2.3％，4.3% 及 6.8％。 股价变动 个月 个月 年 长城汽车 1 3 1 我们调整了对哈弗 H7 和 H6 本年度的销售预期。 我们大致同意毛利率由于竞争加剧导致 Abs. % 4.6 0.3 (17.6) 下降的趋势，但我们认为利润率降幅将低于我们以前的预期，因为高利润率的哈弗 H6 有 绝对变动 % 较好的销售。 Rel. % to HS index 6.5 (3.9) (17.6) 相对恒指变动 % 我们维持投资评级为“买入”。虽然面对激烈的竞争的 SUV 市场，我们相信有一系列的策略， Avg. share price(HK$) 8.2 8.0 7.4 包括产品升级、推广活动和改善客户体验来捍卫其市场份额。预计毛利率会下降，但我们 平均股价（港元） MotorWall Great Source: Bloomberg, Guotai Junan International. 认为管理层可控制其下跌规模，特别在 2016 年的销售量增加时，毛利率将受益于更好的 利用率。我们上调目标价至 9.44 港元，相当于 8.5 倍 2016 年市盈率和 8.0 倍 2017 年市 盈率，1.7 倍 2016 年市净率和 1.4 倍 2017 年市净率。 Year End Turnover Net Profit EPS EPS PER BPS PBR DPS Yield ROE 年结 收入 股东净利 每股净利 每股净利变动 市盈率 每股净资产 市净率 每股股息 股息率 净资产收益率 12/31 (RMB m) (RMB m) (RMB) (△%) (x) (RMB) (x) (RMB) (%) (%) 2014A 62,599 8,042 0.881 (2.2) 7.0 3.672 1.7 0.267 4.1 26.1 2015A 76,033 8,059 0.883 0.2 6.9 4.206 1.4 0.190 2.8 22.4 2016F 87,230 8,852 0.970 9.8 6.6 4.925 1.3 0.251 3.7 21.2 2017F 98,025 9,359 1.025 5.7 6.6 5.707 1.2 0.243 3.6 19.3 2018F 110,919 9,677 1.060 3.4 6.4 6.505 1.0 0.263 4.0 17.4 Shares in issue (m) 总股数 (m) 9,127.3 Major shareholder 大股东 Wei Jian Jun 34.94% Market cap. (HK$ m) 市值 (HK$ m) 70,827.6 Free float (%) 自由流通比率 (%) 65.1 3 month average vol. 3 个月平均成交股数 (‘000) 42,451.5 FY16 Net gearing (%) FY16 净负债/股东资金 (%) Net Cash 52 Weeks high/low (HK$) 52 周高/低 10.420 / 4.940 FY16 Est. NAV (HK$) FY16 每股估值（港元） 11.1 Source: the Company, Guotai Junan International. Company Report See the last page for disclaimer Page 1 of 9 1-3Q16 Results Review Great Wall Motor’s (“GWM” or “the Company”) 1-3Q16 net profit attributable to parent company was up 16.1% yoy to 2016 RMB 7,209 million, in line with market consensus but better than our expectations. In 9M16, overall sales volume was up 17.6% yoy to 689,992 units, while revenue was up 20.5% yoy to RMB 63,454 million. Strong SUV segment (up 23.2% yoy) continued to lead the Company to grow but results were dragged by sedan performance, which decreased 34.0%. Gross profit 27 October margin was 25.1% in 9M16, a decrease of 1.1ppts compared to 9M15. The decrease in gross profit margin was due to 1) the newly launched Haval H2, concept blue, and the 2017 H6 Sport with a relatively lower selling price aimed at penetrating the market. Thus, these reasons correspond with a lower GP margin which dragged down overall margin. 2) An increase in promotional activity such as a RMB 100 million “red packet” scheme promoted in 3Q, and 3) increase in rebates to 4S dealer shops, in which the Company introduced a qualitative performance scheme to evaluate 4S dealers such as customer satisfaction to link customer experience into their rebate system. The scheme was effectively launched in 4Q15. Table-1: Summary of 1-3Q16 Financial Results of GWM (in RMB mn, except per share items) 1-3Q16 1-3Q15 yoy 3Q16 3Q15 yoy Key financials Total revenue 63,454 52,656 20.5% 21,782 15,511 40.4% Operating income 63,345 52,604 20.4% 21,744 15,489 40.4% Cost of sales 47,501 38,834 22.3% 16,603 11,705 41.8% Gross profit 15,953 13,822 15.4% 5,179 3,806 36.1% Business tax and surcharges 2,345 1,988 18.0% 808 665 21.4% Selling expenses 2,074 1,797 15.4% 672 604 11.2% Administrative expenses 2,870 2,513 14.2% 964 856 12.6% Finance expenses / (income) 36 233 -84.6% 1 15 -94.0% Operating profit 8,551 7,298 17.2% 2,737 1,683 62.6% Profit before taxation 8,706 7,552 15.3% 2,786 1,834 51.9% Income tax expenses 1,494 1,342 11.3% 501 342 46.7% Net profit attributable to parent 7,209 6,209 16.1% 2,283 1,492 53.1% Minority interest 1 1 n.a. 1 1 n.a. ) Basic EPS (RMB) 0.79 0.68 16.1% 0.25 0.16 53.1% Operating data 02333 HK ( Sales volume(unit) 689,992 586,657 17.6% 239,740 171,316 39.9% Domestic Sales 678,720 567,542 19.6% 235,767 164,802 43.1% Export 11,272 19,115 -41.0% 3,973 6,514 -39.0% 长城汽车 ASP(RMB) 91,963 89,756 2.5% 90,856 90,540 0.3% Margins and ratios (%) ppt ppt Gross profit margin(%) 25.1% 26.2% (1.1) 23.8% 24.5% (0.8) OP margin(%) 13.5% 13.9% (0.4) 12.6% 10.9% 1.7 Net profit margin(%) 11.4% 11.8% (0.4) 10.5% 9.6% 0.9 Selling costs to revenue 3.3% 3.4% (0.1) 3.1% 3.9% (0.8) MotorWall Great Admin costs to revenue 4.5% 4.8% (0.2) 4.4% 5.5% (1.1) Effective tax rate 20.7% 21.6% (0.9) 22.0% 22.9% (1.0) Source: the Company, Guotai Junan International. Company Report See the last page for disclaimer Page 2 of 9 Sales Analysis Sales was strong in 3Q16, demonstrating double-digit growth. Total vehicle sales in 3Q16 reached 239,740 units, with 2016 yoy growth of 39.9%, and qoq growth of 10.6%. Strong sales continued to be driven by the Haval H6, up 47.6% yoy. Being the no.1 SUV brand for 43 consecutive months, we believe its reputation is well received by consumers. The Company continues to increase options for their customers, especially for Haval H6 which has versions such as coupe models, sports versions and 27 October upgraded versions with prices ranging from RMB 88.8 thousand to RMB 150 thousand, as well as concept blue or red. Therefore, it is not surprising that the Haval H6 carries the most SUV sales, contributing 60.8% of total SUV sales in Sep. 2016. Another star product, the Haval H2, although growth being rather flat with just 0.8% yoy growth YTD in Sep. 2016, the product contributed 23.1% of SUV sales. It is worth noting that the Haval H2 was another top 10 SUV product in Sep. 2016 sales along with Haval H6, which no other brands replicated. The new model Haval H7 was launched in Apr. 2016 and accumulated 21,812 units of sales in Sep. 2016. This product continues to pick up volume and the management has relatively high expectations on this new product, with expected monthly sales to reach 10,000 units. We largely concur with the expectation as waiting time is rougly 1-2 months, and moreover, the Haval H7 is priced at around RMB 150,000 to RMB 170,000 which has limited or no direct competition from other Chinese self-owned brands.
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