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aa 6 HavalH6. 较 se up TP to HK$9.44, representing 8.5x 2016 PER, 8.0x 2017 PER, 1.7xPER, 2017 8.0x PER, 2016 8.5xrepresenting HK$9.44, to TP up se pag 管理层 调整了对 维持 % yoy % maintain 首 16 , mainly due to lower selling price for new products to boost sales but sales boost to products new for price selling lower to due mainly , 1. 销售。 长城汽车 好的 e
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Company Report Great Wall Motor 长城汽车 (02333 HK) GTJA Research 国泰君安研究
Se International Junan Guotai Company, Source: the Marginsand ratios (%) Operating Keyfinancials RMB(in mn, except per share item Table satisfaction shop pack “red million 100 RMBa as such activity promotional Thus, market. launch newly 25. was margin continue up RMB Company”)Wall“the Great (“GWM” or Motor’s 1 1
- Effectivetax rate Admin costs revenue to Selling costs revenue to Netprofit margin(%) OP Grossprofit margin(%) ASP(RMB) Export DomesticSales Salesvolume(unit) Basic EPS(RMB) Minorityinterest Netprofit attributable parent to Incometax expenses Profitbefore taxation Operatingprofit Financeexpenses (income) / Administrativeexpenses exSelling Businesstax and surcharges Grossprofit of Cost sales Total e 3Q16 17.6
Operatingincome th s
m e - 7,209 i wih h Cmay nrdcd qaiaie efrac shm t eaut 4 daes uh s customer as such dealers 4S evaluate to scheme performance qualitative a introduced Company the which in , 1 r las argin(%) % yoy to evenue : Summary 1 of
d t
d to to lead the Co pag penses Results Review ata
to link experience customer into rebate their system. The scheme million, in line with market consensus but better than our expectations our than better but consensus market with line in million,
ed
e
hs reasons these fo 1
Haval H2 Haval % in in % r 689,992
disclaimer
9M
- mpany to grow 3Q 16
units ,
concept blue concept , a decrease of 1.1pptscompared to of decrease a ,
1
6
, while revenue,
orsod ih lwr P agn hc dagd on vrl margin overall down dragged which margin GP lower a with correspond Financial Result Financial
s )
.
but ,
and
results were the was 678,720 689,992 1 91,963 15,953 47,501 63,345 63,454 s 11,272 20.7% 13.5% 25.1% - 11.4% 7,209 1,494 8,706 8,551 2,870 2,074 2,345 3Q16
4.5% 3.3% 2017 H6 SportH6 2017 of GWMof 0.79 up 36 - 3Q 1 20
16 net profit attributableprofit parent tonet 16 dragged by sedan . 5 et” scheme promoted in 3Q in promoted scheme et” % yoy RMB to
567,542 586,657 1 13,822 38,834 52,604 52,656 89,756 19,115 21.6% 13.9% 26.2% - 11.8% 1,797 1,988 6,209 1,342 7,55 7,298 2,513 3Q15 4.8% 3.4% 9 0.68 233 with M 1 2 15
a relatively lower selling price selling lower relatively a . The . 63
performance, , decrease in gross profit margin margin profit gross in decrease - - 454 15.4% 18.0% 15.4% 22.3% 20.4% 20.5% 41.0% 19.6% 17.6% 16.1% 16.1% 15.3% 17.2% 84.6% 14.2% 11.3%
was 2.5% (0.9) (0.2) (0.1) (0.4) (0.4) (1.1) yoy n.a. ppt million. S effectively
, and 3) increase in rebates to 4S dealer 4S to rebates in increase 3) and ,
which decreased . 235,767 239,740
trong SUV segment In 16,603 21,744 21,782 90,856 22.0% 10.5% 12.6% 23.8% 5,179 3,973 2,283 2,786 2,737 3Q16
4.4% 3.1%
company 0.25 9M launched in in 4Q15. launched 672 808 501 964 1 1 16, overall sales volume sales overall 16,
aimed at aimed
was 164,802 171,316 15,489 90,540 11,705 15,511 22.9% 10.9% 24.5% . 3,806 6,514 1,492 1,834 1,683 3Q15 34
5.5% 3.9% 9.6% 0.16 2)
604 665 342 856 was up . 15 0
1 (up penetrat An An %.
16.1
due to 1) 1) to due
Gross profit Page Page 23 increase % yoy% to .2% yoy) ing - - 2 21.4% 36.1% 41.8% 40.4% 40. 39.0% 43.1% 39.9% 53.1% 53.1% 46.7% 51.9% 62.6% 94.0% 12.6% 11.2% of of 0.3%
(1.0) (1.1) (0.8) (0.8) was
yoy n.a. ppt 4% 0.9 1.7 the the 9
in
Company Report Great Wall Motor 长城汽车 (02333 HK) 27 October 2016 1,000,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 2,500,000 Se Source: Figure Table sales.better in in the evaluationordera process tofactors distinctive create more experience their for and customer its 4S stores. W one selling will it believes Company The stores. 4S separate into blue and red concept consumers; preference GWM specifications, product means every on working is Company The better for version off road experience 4Q16 in market the hit to expected is H7L Haval base wheel longer limited as waiting time is rougly 1 expectation 21 H6 Haval with contributed 23.1% starAnother product Therefore, u to increase 43 brand for SUV no.1 yoy growth of st was Sales Sales Analysis Total Pick truckup Sedan SUV 500,000 500,000 Source: the Company, Guotai Junan International Junan Guotai Company, the Source:
gae vers pgraded e
, 812
HavalH9 HavalH8 HavalH7 HavalH6 HavalH5 HavalH2 HavalH1 th
e - 0
CAAM, 2 - las or or no direct 1 : GWM units : SalesSales and PV Growth t Sep-10 pag it it is and type s options for their customers, especially
r the Company the
Jan-11 ed: family / household). To further enhance this strategy, the Company has plans to separate to plans has Company strategy, the this enhance To household). further / family ed: on this new product, with expected monthly sales to reach 10,000 un 10,000 reach to sales monthly expected with product, new this on
f sales of e rong in 3Q16, in rong 39.9 ,
ion SUV yoy (RHS) SUV yoy vol. PV sales not not fo May-11 Sep h taste hc n te bad replicate brands other no which in r ile rebates to dealers are mainly numberthrough of sales gener
Sep-11 s disclaimer
% surprising of of store
competition from . 2016 SalesSummary ih price with
Jan-12 , the , and qoq growth of 10.6%. SUV sales. according
, Guotai Junan International Guotai Junan , May-12 in
consec s
Sep-12 to addition In . Haval H2, growalthough - Sep 2 2 months, and moreover, t
Jan-13
that demonstrating s 2016 .
May-13 utive is is to age groups creatingcon age to therefore and cities, Sep-13 ranging It It is worth the the also also
Jan-14 months, we believe its reputation is well received by consumer receivedwell byreputation believe its weis months, other . This product continues to pick up volume and the management has relatively high high relatively has management the and volume up pick to continues product This . GWM yoy (RHS) yoy GWM (RHS) PV yoy . Haval H6 carries the
May-14 Sep 53,268 20,242 87,627 97,685
refining 8,156 1,902 1,020 5,192 1,856 5,499 .
the
Sep-14 in China rm M 8. tosn t RB 5 tosn, s el s concept as well as thousand, 150 RMB to thousand 88.8 RMB from 550 - 16 Jan-15 Chinese noting noting that
distribution channel, the Companythe aim distribution channel,
.
May-15
double necessary
Sep-15 t dsrbto canl Firstly, channel. distribution its Strong sales continued to be driven by
d
for for . Jan-16 th
self h n The he
May-16 being Haval Haval -
digit growth digit the Sep-16 - owned brand Haval 50% 0% - 100% 150% Sep 50% 65,601 30,528 13,756 54,978
w oe Hvl 7 a luce i Ar 21 and 2016 Apr. in launched was H7 Haval model ew Haval H2 was another top 10 SUV product in Sep. 2016 sales along 6,959 3,664 1,086 1,373 4,693 most to incre to rather flat with just 0.8% yoy growth YTD H6 which has versions such as 645 - 15 H7 is priced at around RMB 150,000 to RMB 170,000 -
Source: Source: Figure SUV sales 100,000 100,000 120,000
20,000 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 units
ase its sales and protect its margin. its protect and sales its ase . s -
T and customer and . We the Company the otal vehicle sales vehicle otal - - - 2 48.9% 17.2% 48.1% 58.1% 49.4% 74.5% 35.2% 47.2% 17.2% 59.4% : Jan YoY GWM MonthlyGWM Sales n.a. ,
are are optimistic contributing Feb
create cept blue and red andblue red cept Mar , Guotai Junan International Guotai Junan , ated, the Compan h Cmay eonzd h difference the recognized Company the 2015 yoy 2015 s its. s Apr
to create create to
are also waiting for waiting also are
ext We largely concur with the expectation the with concur largely We May the the 689,991 373,229 590,330 114,524 Y 60.8% of 75,968 23,693 21,812 16,972 50,223 in 3Q16 in a TD16 8,104 5,466 ra demand when compared to only only to compared when demand ra bout Jun Haval Haval H6, c oupe a
Jul this this model
better customer experience inexperiencecustomer better
total reached reached as a as a models
Aug
y combinedalso qualitative s . The CompanyThe continue. in
up Sep . SUV sales in Sep. 2016.
strategy ( Sep. 2016, Sep. the2016, product eventually 47.6 , 2016 yoy 2016 Oct the 586,651 252,824 479,048 113,583 especially when the s YTD15 239,740 239,740 71,717 35,886 17,073 48,738 11,310 ports version Despite i Despite ly sell ly 5,872 Nov % % yoy four b Dec
- accumulated
lue:younger - b
wheel drive wheel Page Page products of of products translate totranslate u or lue . Being units, with with units, which has
mproving 0% - 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 10% - - 3 17.6% 34.0% 28.3% 47.6% 23.2% - -
s 5.9% 6.9% 0.6% 0.8% 3.0% of of YoY
n.a.
r and ed the 9
in s
.
Company Report Great Wall Motor 长城汽车 (02333 HK) 27 October 2016 100,000 100,000 Se outside, according to management). transmission and engines t 6AT current its replace s will engine 1.5T and 1.3T developed self the specifications, new to relation risingself competingagainst will beit asH6 toHaval its strengthen will need GWM year, one of the main 6,0 approximately be to sales monthly expect to continue we 4Q, in time remaining the Given model. new out rolling of pace The version. red concept future. the in out rolling keep products New achieve to continued NEV that mentioned management incident. fraud ap be to waiting only currently 4Q16. in vehicles energy new first its debut will GWM Source: Figure Source: 100% 25,000 25,000 50,000 75,000 Figure 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 0% e
- th e the Company the the Company the - las 5
- results 3 : Sales
t Sep 10
: Dec 14 Dec pag 11.4% 20.0% 51.2% 3.9% 0.0% 4.7% Jan 11 Haval e May 11
, instead , looking of acquiring into outside companies to instantcreate impact. fo N r International Guotai Junan , International Guotai Junan , Sep 11 Growth
x ya, hbi vrin of version hybrid a year, ext Series Series disclaimer
Jan 12 yoy Series, of Haval Growth % sales, GWM of total Series Haval Series of Haval Sales volume
areas May 12 Dec 15 Dec Sep 12 13.1% 22.3% 47.5% 13.1% asiso t A transmission 7AT to ransmission 0.0% 1.2% 2.9% of Havalof SUV Series product composition
(H8 and H9 are large SUV large are H9 and (H8
Jan 13
of May 13 attention attention proved proved Sep 13 Jan 14
May 14 2016 YTD
. . in 23.1% 60.8%
6.3% 2.1% 5.9% 0.6% 1.2%
will Sep 14
the next batch of subsidy vehicle subsidy of batch next the Jan 15 be a new generation of Haval H6 and should be release May 15
Sep 15
In the 4Q16, GWM will launch a lon a launch will GWM 4Q16, the In be one of their priorities and priorities their of one be the Jan 16 Haval H7 shows the company the shows H7 Haval May 16 H1 H2 H5 H6 H7 H8 H9 aa H wl as b luce. uig h aayt ofrne call, conference analyst the During launched. be also will H7 Haval s
Sep 16 with 50% 0% - 100% 150% 50%
. Beside .
a more powerful engine and it and engine powerful more a
h C The
10% 15% 20% 5% Figure Source: Figure Source: Source: 100% 20% 40% 60% 80% 0% s o
mpany
H8 and H9, all other Haval models Haval other all H9, and H8 Sep 10 the Company the the Company the - - Jan 11 6 Sep 10 4 : Share GWM SUVMarket of :Sales Segmented May 11 Jan 11 s ’ . The delay is mainly due to the to due mainly is delay The . frt E wl b a ueeeti sdn and sedan, electric pure a be will NEV first s
Sep 11 (RHS) sales total to model seller best GWM's (LHS) Share SUV market GWM's (LHS) share market model SUV seller best GWM's May 11 they tart to deploy to improve power and will and power improve to deploy to tart
Jan 12 SUV , Guotai Junan International Guotai Junan , , Guotai Junan International Guotai Junan , Sep 11
’ May 12 s - will use their in house R&D capabilities to capabilities R&D house in their use will Jan 12
owned brand intention to place high emphasis on this on emphasis high place to intention g Sep 12
- May 12 Pickup truck Pickup wheel Jan 13 Sep 12 May 13 ’
s more cost more s Jan 13
-
Sep 13 of GWM Contribution
base version of Haval H7 and a and H7 Haval of version base Jan 14 May 13 s, May 14 Sep 13
d such a such Sedan
Sep 14 Jan 14 in in 1H17. We believe 00 units in the 4Q. the in units 00 . .
Jan 15 - May 14 effective to purchase to effective s Geelys a utilise can May 15 Sep 14
Sep 15 MPV industry Jan 15 Jan 16 May 15 ’ Page Page
s Boyue.s May 16 Sep 15
Sep 16 th 0.0% 100.0% 50.0% subsidy Jan 16 4 new e of of
N May 16 also that ext 9
In is Sep 16
Company Report Great Wall Motor 长城汽车 (02333 HK) 27 October 2016
Se Source: Figure Source: EPS Net Profitfrom operation Gross Revenue Financials Total Sedan SUV Pick Vehiclesales Table H7 Haval 2016. We continue to expect higher margin below are margin gross and price selling that A margin: profit Gross to 2016 2018. for Company the and rate run current the Given Sedan sales: announcement of and the sales strong expect of growth yoy year full a to translating units), averageof reach yearcould an this for car sales averagebelieve weas H6 6,000 units and we forecast sales: SUV assumptions: EPS up revise We forecastsEarnings 1,000,000 1,000,000 1,200,000 1,400,000 lthough a volume a lthough e 200,000 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000
i - ,basic th
ncome(Loss)
upTruck e -
p 3 the Company the Company the - rofit las - 7 :
: Sales Forecast Revision Forecast , t ,RMB mn
(RMB) which which margin pag m 27.3% 2011
We mainly fine tuned the sales forecast sales the tuned fine mainly We , units , argin
e GWM fo
34.3% r International Guotai Junan , International Guotai Junan , Total GWM sales volume (unit) volume sales GWM Total GrowthGWMof andSales F 2012
disclaimer
-
oriented strategy pursue strategy oriented
(basic) by 2.3%, 4.3% and 6.8% during 2016 t 2016 during 6.8% and 4.3% 2.3%, by (basic) ’ for the the for
s s sedan sales continue to slump at a fast rate during the year which is faster than our original expectation. 24.0%
2013 953,109 822,308 103,761 We have revise have We 10,371 87,230 27,039 s 24.7% 2016F 0.970 8,852
will new policy is still new is still policy uncertain,
- 2014
4.9% Haval H6 Haval that the
s achieve achieve average above level
15.5%
1,051,600 2015 929,373 108,348 New 10,928 98,025 13,879 24.2% 2017F H7 will contribute 8.3% of 1.025 9,359 12.6% 2016F towards towards d . .
up our gross profit margin in 2016 to 2018 to 2018 to 2016 in margin profit gross our up
10.3% 2017F s s and the
s 1,157,227 1,038,277 ’ s focus on its SUV segment, we have reduced our sales expectatio sales our reduced have we segment, SUVits on focus s
110,919 40 for its newer car ( car newer its for the the 111,421 the the orecast 11,354 23.2% 2018F 10.0% 2018F 9,677 7,529 1.060 yoy . 2 Company year end as end year % for Haval H6. Haval for %
s Haval Haval H6 will
which should for Haval H7 Haval for
0% - 10% 20% 30% 40%
10%
s
969,197 828,556 105,262 when when ’ s average, we believe believe we average, s 10,098 88,703 35,379 24.2% 2016F
0.948 8,653 SUV sales in 2016. Source: Source: Figure the Haval H2 Haval 100,000 100,000 50,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 90,000 the alleviate
, current
bring forwar
Alt which we believe will gradually pick up to approximately to up pick gradually will believe we which o 2018 respectively.2018 o
1,071,948 the Company the volume pickgradually - hough 941,659 8 110,229 Old 10,404 99,922 20,059 : ASP GWM of Margin Profit Gross and 23.5% 2017F 0.983 8,9 24.9% 2011
– purchase tax cut policy cut tax purchase the decrease 73 43
concept blue and 2017 version 2017 and blue concept a
,000 units per month (2015: average of 31,000of average(2015: month,000unitsper 26.9%
2012 new generation of Haval H6 is H6 Haval of generation new ASP (RMB/unit) d vehicle vehicle d purchase , Guotai Junan International Guotai Junan ,
1,181,210 1,057,348 We We have 113,218 111,545 10,523 12,317 22.3% 2018F that 28.6% 0.993 9,061 2013 24.7%, 24.2% and 23.7% and 24.2% 24.7%, the effect the in
27.7% 2014
We base We overall margin. As wel
s also also
ptwrsya n. up end. year towards 25.2% 2015 - 0.5 ppt0.5 upgraded sales for 23.6% 2016F - - - - 2.3% 2.3% 2.7% 1.7% 1.7% 0.8% 1.4% will
s will expire will .
24.7% 2016F Gross profit (%) profit Gross
this .
not not
Changes
on the following key key following the on 24.2% 2017F be - 0.7 ppt0.7 30.8% 2017F
- - - - H6 Sport H6 4.3% 4.3% 5.0% 1.9% 1.9% 1.3% 1.7% as significant as
and 23.7% 2018F , expected
n on sedan on n respectively. l l as the new
Page Page the the
15% 20% 25% 30%
), such ), detail - 5 0.9 ppt0.9 Haval Haval 38.9% 2 - - - - of of 6.8% 6.8% 7.9% 2.0% 2.0% 1.8% 0.1% 018F , we we ,
9 in
s s
Company Report Great Wall Motor 长城汽车 (02333 HK) 27 October 2016 11 15 Se Source: Figure “ from benefit should which 2016, in rising is volume when especially margin Gross experience. of arsenal an We Valuation 3 7 Buy e
maintain th Oct-11 (X) ”, e Bloomberg and - las Jan-12 9 : GWM of PERBand t Apr-12 pag revise up PE (historical high) PE (historical PE (2016F) PE band Jul-12
e our investment rating investment our , Guotai Junan International. , Guotai Junan Oct-12 strategies fo r
Jan-13 disclaimer
Apr-13 TP Jul-13
Oct-13 to o eed t sae icuig rdc ugae, rmtoa atvte ad mrvn customer improving and activities promotional upgrades, product including share, its defend to
HK$
s xetd o erae u w epc te magnitude the expect we but decrease to expected is
Jan-14
Apr-14 9.
Jul-14 44
Oct-14 , representing
as
PE (historical low) PE (historical PE (2017F) mean) PE (historical Jan-15
Apr-15 “ Buy Jul-15
Oct-15 ”.
Jan-16 faci Although 8.
Apr-16 5 x
Jul-16 201 Oct-16
6
PER, ng fierce competition in the SUV market, we believe GWM hasGWM believe we market, SUV the in competition fierce ng Figure Source: Source: 0 1 2 3 4 5 8.0
Oct-11 utilization better x 201 (X) Bloomberg -
Jan-12 10
Apr-12 :GWMof PBRBand 7 PB (historical high) PB (historical PB (2016F) PB band
Jul-12 PER,
, Guotai Junan International. , Guotai Junan Oct-12 Jan-13 1.
Apr-13 7 . W . s el otold y h management the by controlled well is x
Jul-13 201 Oct-13 e maintain 6
Jan-14 PBR Apr-14
Jul-14 and 1.
Oct-14 our
PB (historical low) PB (historical PB (2017F) mean) PB (historical Jan-15 investment rating investment Apr-15 4 x
Jul-15 201 Oct-15
7
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Company Report Great Wall Motor 长城汽车 (02333 HK) 27 October 2016 Se Average Weighted Global Average Simple Global Weighted Average Average Simple Ltd Tata Steel C Motors General Volvo Ab Renault Sa Man Se Daimler Ag Wk Bayer Motoren Ag Volkswagen Paccar Inc Intl Navistar Co Ford Motor Motor Hyundai Weighted Average Average Simple Isuzu Motors Ltd Hino Motors Suzuki Motor Indus Heavy Fuji Heavy Mitsubishi Mazda Motor Co Honda Motor Motor Toyota Co Motor Nissan Weighted Average Average Simple Bus Zhongtong Yax Yangzhou Jiangling Moto Lo Xiamen King Yut Zhengzhou T Cnhtc Jinan Anhui Jianghua Beiqi Foton Power Weichai Chan Chongqing Motor Saic CoLtd Faw Car Mo Great Wall Auto Dongfeng Weighted Average Average Simple Ltd Hk Sinotruk Power Weichai Motor Baic Gu Ltd Byd Co Motor Qingling Mot Great Wall China Brilliance Geely Automobile Motor Dongfeng Company Table Source: the Company,the Source: International. Guotai Junan
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GM USGM VOLVB SS RNO FP MAN GR DAI GR GR BMW GR VOW US PCAR NAV US F US 005380 KS 7202 JP 7205 JP 7269 JP 7270 JP 7011 JT 7261 7267 JP 7203 JP 7201 JP 000957 C 600213 CH 000550 CH 600686 CH 600066 CH 000951 600418 CH 600166 CH 000338 CH 000625 CH 600104 CH 000800 CH 601633 CH 600006 CH 3808 HK 2338 HK 1958 HK 2238 HK 1211 HK 1122 HK 2333 HK 1114 HK HK175 HK489 Stock Code disclaimer INTATA
JP
CH
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KRW JPY JPY JPY JPY JPY JPY JPY JPY JPY CNY CNY CNY CNY CNY CNY CNY CNY CNY CNY CNY CNY CNY CNY HKD HKD HKD HKD HKD HKD HKD HKD HKD HKD Currency INR USD SEK EUR EUR EUR EUR EUR USD USD USD
Last price 138,000. 1,277.00 1,163.00 3,682.00 4,040.00 1,701.50 3,132.00 6,004.00 1,034.50
395.15 134.20 455.10 31.58 96.05 79.13 93.09 65.51 80.39 55.26 22.46 18.68 15.45 28.31 12.79 22.07 13.75 12.98 15.62 23.14 10.53 12.16 10.62 51.90 11.63 11.88 2.86 9.89 7.80 4.36 8.33 2.40 7.76 9.34 8.32 7.85
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166.4 503.7 13.5 13.9 29.5 10.3 18.0 18.8 10.7 90.9 10.1 10.5 13.0 13.8 13.2 20.9 20.1 13.8 12.2 43.3 69.9 15.5 19.8 14.1 27.4 24.7 48.7 20.5 51.5 16.4 16.4 36.7 20.5 14.8 31.9 10.6 11.5 11.9 11.2 11.7 15A n.a. 7.5 6.5 6.6 8.9 9.9 7.4 6.2 9.2 8.8 6.7 7.9 8.6 8.9 8.6
342.1 15.8 25.0 13.5 15.0 57.3 14.1 14.0 15.2 10.3 32.6 47.3 16.8 10.9 27.8 12.2 26.8 18.5 57.2 20.0 10.3 26.9 14.1 14.1 24.9 22.2 10.7 25.1 10.5 11.1 11.8 16F n.a. n.a. n.a. 6.4 8.1 8.4 6 4.9 9.6 5.3 6.8 8.0 8.1 8.3 6.6 5.8 8.9 9.7 9.0 8.9 7.6 6.4 8.0 7.8 .8 .8 PE
505.7 21.9 15.2 40.9 16.7 22.3 18.9 18.5 21.2 10.5 27.3 13.5 14.4 13.9 36.6 15.7 34.7 12.7 14.8 10.5 12.5 38.6 56.7 12.7 14.3 11.9 11.7 11.3 11.7 11.0 11.1 11.5 11.1 11.4 17F n.a. 6.1 7.6 9.4 8.5 7.5 6.7 9.6 4.7 8.9 5.5 6.0 7.7 8.1 6.3 6.9 5.6 9.2 9.4 7.9 8.5
465.2 17.2 12.9 40.9 14.8 22.3 10.4 10.4 16.4 16.2 18.0 10.0 10.2 23.7 12.5 14.2 13.5 14.6 10.4 10.2 35.7 52.2 10.2 10.4 11.0 11.6 18F n.a. n.a. 6.1 7.3 9.3 7.8 6.9 6.8 8.0 9.0 4.5 7.1 8.6 9.3 5.6 5.7 7.7 8.1 5.6 6.7 5.4 9.9 9.8 8.2 9.2 9.7 7.7 7.1 8.0
50.0 15A n.a. 1.7 2.5 1.1 0.9 1.9 1.3 3.1 1.8 2. 1.6 1.3 0.4 0.9 1.4 1.0 2.7 0.7 1.8 2.1 1.6 0.9 1.6 2.9 1.4 1.5 1.0 1.3 1.9 1.0 2.5 1.5 1.5 0.8 2.4 2.0 0.5 1.5 1.7 1.8 2.3 1.4 3.0 1.2 1.7 1.0 1.6 1.1 2.6 5.8 3.4 1.6 3.0 3.9 8
16F n.a. n.a. n.a. 1.9 1.9 1.0 1.2 1.7 1.3 2.1 2.1 2.3 1.7 1.4 0.5 1.3 1.4 1.3 2.5 0.7 1.4 1.8 2.8 0.6 1.3 1.6 1.2 1.5 1.3 1.1 2.2 0.7 2.6 1.2 1.1 0.8 3.0 1.5 0.6 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.5 2.4 0.8 1.0 0.8 1.0 0.9 2.0 1.9 1.8 2.0 3.5 PB
17F n.a. n.a. n.a. 1.8 1.8 1.0 1.1 1.5 1.2 2.0 1.9 2.1 1.5 1.3 0.5 1.2 1.2 1.2 2.3 0.7 1.2 1.6 2.3 0.5 1.2 1.5 1.1 1.3 1.4 0.9 2.0 0.7 2.4 1.1 1.0 0.7 2.7 1.3 0.5 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.5 1.6 2.1 0.9 1.0 0.8 1.0 0.9 1.8 1.8 1.6 2.0 3.1
18F n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 1.6 1.5 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.1 2.0 1.6 1.9 1.4 1.1 0.5 1.2 1.1 1.1 2.1 0.7 1.1 1.3 1.9 0.5 1.1 1.3 0.9 1.1 1.3 0.8 1.8 0.6 1.0 1.0 0.6 2.4 1.1 0.5 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.4 1.4 1.8 0.8 0.9 0.8 1.0 0.8 1.6 1.6 1.4 1.9 2.7
ROE(%)
16F (1.9) 12.2 25.6 16.8 20.8 14.7 12.9 15.2 16.5 19.3 17.1 21.1 12.5 12.9 13.2 14.1 12.9 18.2 15.3 12.0 15.3 13.5 20.4 19.7 10.4 13.8 10.4 21.2 10.8 17.5 13.8 24.7 19.5 12.5 28.5 11.2 11.2 11.4 11.9 11.0 n.a. n.a.
8.8 2.4 7.0 3.6 7.9 2.9 6.7 6.5 9.4 9.0 6.7 7.4 9.6
D/Y(%)
16F n.a. n.a. 1.2 2.1 0.7 2.4 5.4 6.6 0.0 3.2 2.7 3.1 1.8 1.9 4.0 4.1 1.1 7.6 4.6 1.2 1.3 3.4 3.6 3.2 4.0 3.4 2.0 5.0 3.5 4.1 3.3 5.3 4. 2.2 3.0 0.0 5.3 3.4 3.3 2.9 2.6 2.9 0.9 3.6 2.7 2.0 2.8 3.4 4.8 3.3 3.0 0.5 4.4 1.5 5.8
3
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EV/EBITDA
7 16F of of
13.0 12.4 10.2 16.8 20.8 10.6 12.5 11.2 9 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 6.9 6.8 3.8 5.9 8.2 2.4 5.9 3.1 2.6 2.8 1.3 9.2 2.8 8.0 9.7 6.6 4.9 6.5 5.0 4.6 5.3 4.4 7.6 8.8 6.3 7.1 2.7 2.9 7.4 7.1 4.3 6.8 5.4 9.7 7.6 3.2 4.0 4.3 0.6 5.9 6.2
Company Report Great Wall Motor 长城汽车 (02333 HK) 27 October 2016 Se atba Cash balance bank and cash Restricted en the at Free Cash adjustment exchange Foreign of cash Net change of the year beginning the at Free Cash Net cas Others paid Dividends borrowings in Net change Share Issuance i used in Net cash Others entities business other and subsidiaries from Net received/(Paid) on available Net change of PPE from sale Proceeds PPE of Acquisition activities operating from generated Net cash adjustment Other paid costs Finance liabilities and assets tax deferred inChange working capital in Changes Investment losses/(gains) Adjust & Amortization Depreciation Net profits mn) 31 (RMB Dec endYear (RMB) share per Dividend (RMB) EPS Basic Net pro Net profits before taxation Profit Non Non profit Operating Investment income value fair in changes from Gains/(losses) onassets loss Impairment expenses/incomes Financial expenses Administrative expenses Selling surcharges and tax Business profit Gross Operating costs Turnover mn) 31 (RMB Dec endYear Statements Financial Ratios and Source: the Company,the Source: International. Guotai Junan Interest Minority Expenses Taxes e - - operating expenses operating income operating
ments from other G/L other from ments th
fit attributable to to attributable fit h generated from financing activities financing from generated h e
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shareholders shareholders
Cash Flow Statement Cash Flow
Income Statement Income
(45,252) (2,506) (7,210) (7,229) (3,455) (1,599) (3,822) (2,085) (2,282) (2,423) (1,309) 17,347 62,599 2014A 2014A
6,096 1,606 8,041 0.267 0.881 8,042 8,041 9,640 9,244 3,394 3,082 5,523 1,210 (18) (14) (48) (41) (32) (44) (72) 313 441 129 (0) (4) 13 26 32
0 0 0 6 0
(56,864)
(3,199) (6,517) (5,857) (1,628) (4,031) (2,842) (2,886) (4,112) 10,034 19,169 76,033 2015A 2015A
3,642 1,183 2,458 3,082 1,908 8,060 0.190 0.883 8,059 8,060 9,689 9,280 (595) (882) (938) (272) (146)
(28) (31) (98) (59) (82) 150 109 163 145 467 (0) (0) 18 45 98 0 1
(65,678)
(2,358) (2,292) (7,120) (1,965) (4,725) (3,026) (7,112) (3,311) 87,230 10,818 10,371 21,552 11,642
2016F 2016F
2,172 8,853 0.251 0.970 8,852 8,853 5,806 1,183 4,623 2,164 2,458 (108) (110) (115) (115) (57) (68)
14 150 462 516 108 115 (2) (2) 5 18 33 26 0 0 0 1 1
(74,290)
(2,219) (8,188) (7,907) (2,420) (5,520) (3,443) (3,721) (2,335) (2,116) 10,928 23,735 98,025 11,477 2017F 2017F
0.243 1.025 9,359 9,361 1,183 3,932 4,623 9,831 2,521 9,361 5,115 (124) (691) (353) (116) (116) (119) (76) 625 208 134 119 116 (1) (0) (4)
56 19 31 1 0 0
(85,136) 110,919
(2,23 (6,105) (3,963) (2,545) (2,400) (5,504) (5,213) (4,211) 25,783 10,036 12,970 11,909 11,354 2018F 201
0.263 1.060 9,677 9,678 1,183 8,853 4,921 3,932 2,769 9,678 (134) (145) (145) (385) (131)
(86) 642 131 207 145 174 (2) (0) (5) 8F 75 24 93 34 1)
1 0 0
Deferred income Curren liabilities Other current Borrowing Short Term payables Salaries payables Tax from customers Advances payables Trade Non Other Investments assets tax Deferred Assets Intangible progress in Construction PPE Current Assets Others Prepayments Receivables other andTrade Inventories Cash mn) 31 (RMB Dec endYear days Payable turnover days turnover Receivable days Inventory turnover Analysis Efficiency ratio Quick Cash ratio (x) Interest cover ratio(% Gearing solvency and Liquidity BPS(%) EPS(%) growth (%) Net profit OP growth(%) growth(%) Rev Analysis Growth ROA(%) ROE(%) Net profit margin(%) OP margin(%) EBITDAR(%) Gr Analysis Profitability (RMB) BPS Total Equity Equity Shareholders' Interest Minority Net Assets Total Non
oss profit profit margin(%) oss
-
current Assets current
t Liabilities t
-
current Liabilities current
)
Net Cash
Financial Ratio Financial
Balance sheet Balance 26,145 20,010 26,032 17,273 35,314 26,979 33,518 33,452 33,518 2014A 2014A (2.21) (2.21) (4.39) 1,682 1,327 3,180 2,813 5,274 3,470 3,394 19.67 10.24 26.14 12.85 14.77 17.23 27.71 3.672 1,682 14.11 1.22 0.13 (74) 748 880 158 441 746 723 135 139 72 25 67 0
Net Cash
31,786 22,749 31,521 19,156 40,390 28,945 38,387 38,331 38,387 2015A 2015A 1,686 1,286 1,535 4,938 2,239 3,136 6,241 2,803 4,120 3,642 14.52 21.46 12.10 22.42 10.60 12.21 14.98 25.21 4.206 1,737 1.14 0.22 0.22 0.40 0.11 300 979 710 881 126 134 s
39 24 71 56
Net Cash
35,593 25,965 36,87 22,451 45,650 31,280 44,948 44,891 44,948 2016F 2016F 1,967 1,475 1,761 5,059 2,416 3,279 7,882 3,082 1,038 4,443 5,8 17.09 14.73 21.24 10.15 14.49 24.71 4.925 1,986 11.75 11.46 11.89 1.16 0.16 9.84 9.84 350 984 808 124 131 116 06 06 42 25 57 7
Net Cash
39,420 28,650 42,807 26,013 50,928 36,194 52,090 52,032 52,090 Page Page 2017F 2017F 2,216 1,657 1,978 1,099 5,685 2,614 3,515 9,706 3,390 1,195 5,034 15.89 12.38 10.62 19.29 13.82 24.21 5.707 2,225 5,115 11.15 1.16 0.13 5.73 5.73 5.38 9.55 350 914 122 135 122 46 25 58
8
Net Cash
of of
59,369 59,309 59,369 45,308 33,245 45,827 10,910 27,261 61,360 40,507 10,036 2018F 2018F 13.97 17.36 10.24 12.84 23.24 6.505 2,511 1,875 2,239 1,166 6,433 2,854 1,025 3,726 3,728 1,353 5,737 2,511 1.23 0.22 3.39 3.39 3.89 8.00 9.63 8.72 9 121 133 349 25 97 60 50
Company Report Great Wall Motor 长城汽车 (02333 HK) 27 October 2016 Se Website:www.gtja.com.hk Tel.:(852) 2509 27/F.,Low Block, GrandMillennium Plaza, 181 Queens’ Road Central, Hong Kong. 201 © regulati or subjectGuota law applicable to contrary be would use or availability publication, distribution, such where jurisdiction any in Research This Report isnot directed at,or inte unpredic andwhere necessary consult their own inherently financial advisers prior to any investment decision. with conditions economic and political future u the so situation, mutable of assumptions the from derived forecasts and estimates compl and accuracy the guarantee not Thoughbest effort has been ensuremade to the accuracy of the information and data containedin this ResearchReport, Guotai becontrary to opinions orinvestment deci reportthis professionalopinionsexpressedcompanies.in otherdealersAnyandexecutivesGuotai Junan of persons,group of Any opinions expressed in this report may differ or be contrary to opin s manager, lead agent, placing the example, companies (for to etc. relates that and underwriter businessorproprietarily).invest services do investment may banking, companies investment group including its reports, and research Junan Guotai Junan"). ("Guotai Limited Kong) (Hong Ju Guotai by securities for subscribe or purchase acquire, to offer or invitation an constitute not does Report Research This DISCLAIMER (4) (3) (2) (1) DISCLOSURE OF INTERESTS Horizon: Time to6 18 months TheBenchmark: Hong KongHang Seng Index SectorRating Definition Horizon: Time to6 18 months TheBenchmark: Hong KongHang Seng Index CompanyRatingDefini e Underperform Neutral Outperform Rating Sell Reduce Neutral Accumulate Buy Rating
th corporation mentionedin thisResearch Report. companies group its and Junan Guotai Res this in mentioned issuer the of capitalizationReport. market the of 1% than more or to equal hold not do companies group its and HoldingsLimited (01788 (00198 Limited Group Holdings SMI for Except The Analystsand their associates The Analystsand their associates 6 e
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Company Report Great Wall Motor 长城汽车 (02333 HK) 27 October 2016