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East Africa Water Scenarios to 2050

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East Africa Water Scenarios to 2050 Address: IIASA, Schlossplatz 1, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria Email: [email protected] Telephone: +43 (0)2236 807 342 Report East Africa Water Scenarios to 2050 Authors: Sylvia Tramberend1, Robert Burtscher1, Peter Burek1, Taher Kahil1, Günther Fischer1, Junko Mochizuki1, Yoshihide Wada1, Richard Kimwaga2, Phillip Nyenje3, Risper Ondiek4, Prossie Nakawuka3, Canute Hyandye5, Claver Sibomana6, Simon Langan1 1 International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Austria 2 University of Dar es Salaam, Tanzania 3 Makerere University, Kampala, Uganda 4 University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences Vienna, Vienna 5 Institute of Rural Development Planning, Dodoma, UR Tanzania 6 University of Burundi, Bujumbura May 2019 The research in this document presents result of the research project ‘Water Futures and Solutions, Phase 2, (WFaS2 16-141), Water scenarios for East Africa’ funded by the Austrian Development Agency and the Austrian Federal Ministry, Sustainability and Tourism. This document reports on work of the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis and has received only limited review. Views or opinions expressed herein do not necessarily represent those of the institute, its National Member Organizations, or other organizations supporting the work. Country boundaries follow the delineations of the 2014 Global Administrative Unit Layers (GAUL) distributed by the Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations. ZVR 524808900 This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License. For any commercial use please contact [email protected] Source of picture on front page: Robert Burtscher I Acknowledgments: The “East Africa Water Scenario to 2050” working paper was produced through efforts of many within and outside the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis. The authors are particularly grateful for all the support of the Secretariat of the Lake Victoria Basin Commission and the Member States representatives, in particular the Ministry of Water and Environment of the Government of Uganda. Completion of this work would have been very difficult without the unrelenting support of various stakeholders especially the participants of two workshops. The first “Solutions for a water secure East Africa in 2050” from December 4-6, 2017 provided key input and initiated the development of a regional scenario for East Africa. The second workshop “East Africa Future Water Scenarios to 2050”, from December 4-6, 2018, was a consultation and joint learning workshop for the discussion and fine- tuning of modelling results. Both workshops were held in Entebbe, Uganda with each of them bringing together more than 50 participants from governments, academia, civil society and private sector. We would like to thank our co-hosts of these workshops, the Water Resources Institute of the Ugandan Ministry of Water and Environment and the Secretariat of the Lake Victoria Basin Commission for bringing together a very distinguished and engaged group of participants. With deep gratitude, we thank the workshop participants for the valuable inputs, comments and the time to thoughtfully review documents and engage in enlightening discussions and exchanges. Further thanks go to the Government of Austria through the Austrian Development Agency (ADA) and the Federal Ministry of Sustainability and Tourism for providing financial support to the Water Futures and Solutions Initiative that made it possible for this work to be successfully undertaken. Finally, efforts of all those that contributed in one way or the other to the timely completion of this work and eventual production of this report, whether mentioned or not, are highly acknowledged. II Table of contents Abbreviations __________________________________________________________________ vi List of Tables __________________________________________________________________ vii List of Figures _________________________________________________________________ viii Abstract _______________________________________________________________________ x 1 Introduction 1 2 Methods and data 3 2.1 Study approach _______________________________________________________________ 3 2.2 Review of regional documents and stakeholder workshops ____________________________ 4 2.3 The Community Water Model ____________________________________________________ 4 2.4 The Hydroeconomic optimization model____________________________________________ 8 2.5 Agricultural land use modelling framework _________________________________________ 9 3 The status of water use and challenges – “Where are we?” 11 3.1 Socio-economic drivers ________________________________________________________ 11 3.1.1 Population and urbanization ______________________________________________ 11 3.1.2 Economic development (GDP) _____________________________________________ 12 3.2 Environment and biophysical conditions ___________________________________________ 15 3.2.1 Water resources ________________________________________________________ 15 3.2.2 Land use/cover and protected areas ________________________________________ 17 3.2.3 Water quality __________________________________________________________ 19 3.3 Water demand _______________________________________________________________ 20 3.3.1 Agriculture ____________________________________________________________ 21 3.3.2 Industry including energy ________________________________________________ 22 3.3.3 Domestic water use _____________________________________________________ 24 4 Water development target space – “Where do we want to be?” 26 4.1 Review of regional visions ______________________________________________________ 26 4.1.1 EAC aspirations ________________________________________________________ 26 4.1.2 Demographic development _______________________________________________ 27 4.1.3 Economic growth _______________________________________________________ 28 4.1.4 Water availability _______________________________________________________ 29 4.1.5 Agricultural water use ___________________________________________________ 31 4.1.6 Industrial (including energy) water use _____________________________________ 32 III 4.1.7 Domestic water use _____________________________________________________ 34 4.1.8 Environmental flows / Environment ________________________________________ 34 4.2 Scenario development approach _________________________________________________ 35 4.3 East Africa Regional Vision Scenario (EA-RVS) ______________________________________ 36 4.3.1 Scenario narrative ______________________________________________________ 36 4.3.2 Water specific elements __________________________________________________ 37 4.4 Global scenario narratives and data ______________________________________________ 39 4.4.1 Climate change in the Representative Concentration Pathways __________________ 39 4.4.2 Shared Socio-economic pathways (SSPs) ____________________________________ 40 4.5 Quantification of scenarios drivers _______________________________________________ 41 4.5.1 Demography (Population) ________________________________________________ 42 4.5.2 Economics (GDP per capita) ______________________________________________ 43 4.5.3 Agricultural sector ______________________________________________________ 45 4.5.4 Energy sector __________________________________________________________ 46 5 Scenario results – “What can models tell us? 47 5.1 The extended Lake Victoria Basins (eLVB) _________________________________________ 47 5.1.1 A transboundary basin in the tropics _______________________________________ 47 5.1.2 Scenario overview and the eLVB 61 sub-basins database _______________________ 51 5.2 Climate change impacts on hydrology ____________________________________________ 52 5.2.1 Precipitation ___________________________________________________________ 53 5.2.2 Runoff ________________________________________________________________ 56 5.2.3 Discharge _____________________________________________________________ 57 5.3 Socio-economic drivers of water demand__________________________________________ 59 5.3.1 Demography ___________________________________________________________ 59 5.3.2 Economic development __________________________________________________ 61 5.3.3 Irrigated areas _________________________________________________________ 62 5.4 Increasing water demand ______________________________________________________ 63 5.4.1 Environmental flow requirements __________________________________________ 63 5.4.2 Total water demand _____________________________________________________ 64 5.4.3 Agricultural sector ______________________________________________________ 66 5.4.1 Domestic sector ________________________________________________________ 68 5.4.2 Industry sector _________________________________________________________ 69 IV 5.5 Social-ecological water system characteristics ______________________________________ 70 5.5.1 Cost-efficient water withdrawal by sector and source __________________________ 70 5.5.2 Waste water discharge and treatment ______________________________________ 72 5.5.3 Energy – Water Nexus ___________________________________________________ 73 5.5.4 River streamflow development ____________________________________________ 74 5.5.5 Water scarcity indicators _________________________________________________ 76 5.6 Cost estimates for growing water demand _________________________________________ 81 6 Concluding remarks 83 6.1 A scenario approach linking across spatial scales ___________________________________
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