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Models of Regulating Water in Transboundary River Basins: a Nexus of Hydropolitics and Electricity Trade

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Models of Regulating Water in Transboundary River Basins: a Nexus of Hydropolitics and Electricity Trade MODELS OF REGULATING WATER IN TRANSBOUNDARY RIVER BASINS: A NEXUS OF HYDROPOLITICS AND ELECTRICITY TRADE A THESIS SUBMITTED TO THE GRADUATE SCHOOL OF SOCIAL SCIENCES OF MIDDLE EAST TECHNICAL UNIVERSITY BY HALİL BURAK SAKAL IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY IN THE DEPARTMENT OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS MARCH 2018 Approval of the Graduate School of Social Sciences Prof. Dr. Tülin Gençöz Director I certify that this thesis satisfies all the requirements as a thesis for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy. Prof. Dr. Özlem Tür Head of Department This is to certify that we have read this thesis and that in our opinion it is fully ad- equate, in scope and quality, as a thesis for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy. Prof. Dr. Oktay F. Tanrısever Supervisor Examining Committee Members (first name belongs to the chairperson of the jury and the second name belongs to supervisor) Prof. Dr. Hasan Ali Karasar (Kapadokya Üni, IR) Prof. Dr. Oktay F. Tanrısever (METU, IR) Prof. Dr. Fırat Purtaş (Gazi Uni, IR) Doç. Dr. Şule Güneş (METU, IR) Yrd. Doç. Dr. Zerrin Torun (METU, IR) PLAGIARISM I hereby declare that all information in this document has been obtained and pre- sented in accordance with academic rules and ethical conduct. I also declare that, as required by these rules and conduct, I have fully cited and referenced all material and results that are not original to this work. Name, Last name : Halil Burak, Sakal Signature : iii ABSTRACT MODELS OF REGULATING WATER IN TRANSBOUNDARY RIVER BASINS: A NEXUS OF HYDROPOLITICS AND ELECTRICITY TRADE Sakal, Halil Burak Ph.D., Department of International Relations Supervisor : Prof. Dr. Oktay F. Tanrısever March 2018, 490 pages The central topic of this study is the nexus between water and hydroelectricity. The main issue discussed here is how economic activity influences and is being influenced by water management, hydroelectricity production and electricity trade in key transboundary river basins. The unit of analysis is the state, the limits of which are defined by modern political boundaries; and the geographically demarcated river basins that involve the selected cases are subject to evaluation in broader context. In terms of energy trade relations, the primary focus is on the dyadic interconnections between the riparians, although basin-wide regional electricity trade relations are discussed in a complementary manner. iv The research question this study aims to address is how and to what degree state-level water management policies affect and are being affected by the dyad-level hydropower trade. The initial hypothesis tested is that there is a dialectical and inverse relationship between the level of trade (or sharing) of hydroelectricity between political units in a transboundary river basin and the number and severity of water-induced and mostly economy based dy- adic issue areas between riparians. The findings of the study confirm the hypothesis. This thesis assumes that there are some factors that may augment or impede the severity and the number issue areas between the riparians in key river basins, and also, that may increase or decrease the level of hydropower traded across boundaries. These are the geo- graphical features of the cases; institutional and legal frameworks that deal with water, energy and environment issues in specific river basins; the varying nature of backgrounds based on environmental histories; and the structure and size of the economic activity within a river basin. The chapters of this study are designed in accordance, with the focus being on the economic aspects of dams, which play a decisive role in water management, eco- nomic development, and hydropower production. Keywords: water-energy nexus, water management, dams and hydropower, interconnec- tions, energy trade v ÖZ SU VE ENERJİ İLİŞKİSİ YÖNETİM MODELLERİ: HİDROPOLİTİK VE ELEKTRİK TİCARETİ ÜZERİNE KARŞILAŞTIRMALI BİR ANALİZ Sakal, Halil Burak Doktora, Uluslararası İlişkiler Bölümü Tez Yöneticisi : Prof. Dr. Oktay F. Tanrısever Mart 2018, 490 sayfa Bu çalışmanın ana konusu su ve hidroelektrik enerji arasındaki ilişkidir. Burada tartışılan esas mesele, önemli uluslararası nehir havzalarında iktisadi faaliyetin su yönetimi, hidroe- lektrik enerji üretimi ve elektrik ticaretini nasıl etkilediği ve bunlardan nasıl etkilendiği meselesidir. Çalışmada analiz birimi olarak sınırları modern siyasi hudutlarla belirlenen devletler ele alınmıştır. Ancak daha geniş manada sınırları coğrafya tarafından belirlenen nehir havzaları da örnek ülkeler ile ilişkileri bağlamında bu çalışma kapsamında değerlen- dirilmektedir. Enerji ticareti bağlamında ise temel odak noktası kıyıdaş ülkeler arasındaki ikili elektrik ticareti olmakla birlikte, bu tartışmayı tamamlayıcı olarak havza genelinde gerçekleşen bölgesel elektrik ticareti de gündeme getirilmektedir. vi Çalışmanın cevaplamaya çalıştığı araştırma sorusu, ülkeler arası su yönetimi politikaları ile ülkeler arası ikili elektrik ticareti arasında nasıl ve ne yönde bir bağlantı olduğu sorusu- dur. Test edilen başlangıç hipotezi, belli bir sınır aşan nehir havzası içinde yer alan siyasi birimler arasındaki hidroelektrik enerji ticareti veya paylaşımının seviyesi ile kıyıdaşlar arasında su kaynaklı ve ekonomik temelli ikili sorun alanlarının sayısı ve şiddeti arasında iki yönlü ve ters bir ilişki olduğu yönündeki hipotezdir. Çalışmanın bulguları genel olarak bu hipotezi doğrulamaktadır. Bu çalışmanın temel varsayımı, önemli nehir havzaları dâhilinde, kıyıdaş ülkeler arasındaki siyasi veya iktisadi meselelerin şiddetini ve sayısını artıran veya azaltan, aynı zamanda da komşu iki ülke arasında gerçekleşen hidroelektrik enerji ticaretinin seviyesi üzerinde belir- leyici olan bazı unsurlar olduğudur. Bunlar arasında coğrafya, kurumsal ve yasal çerçeve, siyasi tarih gibi unsurlar önemli yer tutmakla birlikte, nehir havzaları genelindeki iktisadi faaliyetin yapısı ve büyüklüğü de kritik öneme sahiptir. Bu varsayımlar çerçevesinde ça- lışmada temel alınan odak noktası, su yönetimi, iktisadi kalkınma, elektrik üretimi ve su siyaseti açısından belirleyici rol oynayan ve bürokrasi ve siyaset açısından önemli ve geniş kullanımlı araçlar olan sulama ve elektrik üretimi amaçlı barajların ekonomik açıdan ince- lenmesidir. Anahtar kelimeler: su-enerji ilişkisi, su yönetimi, barajlar ve hidroelektrik, elektrik tica- reti vii To my son Barış and to my family viii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I always welcomed invaluable and timely feedback from my advisor, Prof. Oktay F. Tanrısever. His support, comments, and encouragement not only during the writing of this thesis, but also during my entire PhD period, are highly appreciated. Special thanks to Prof. Hasan Ali Karasar, who always supported my academic studies and kindly accepted to take part in my thesis committee. I am glad to find an invaluable opportunity to work with him again. Special thanks also to Prof. Fırat Purtaş, and to Asst. Prof. Zerrin Torun, for accept- ing to join the thesis jury. Thanks to Assoc. Prof. Şule Güneş for her support and insightful remarks on international water law and regulations. The rich resources of the library of the Middle East Technical University was of great help during my studies and I would like to acknowledge the kind support of the library administration, which kindly accepted all my book purchase suggestions. My family has always been very supportive for whatever I read or study. I owe them apol- ogies for devoting most of my time for reading, travelling, and writing during the comple- tion of this study. I found chances to go to Southeast Asia, Central Asia, and America, with the support of some institutions. In that respect, I would like to thank Universitaet Tübingen and Volkswagenstiftung for inviting me to Central Asia to present my work on Soviet Cen- tral Asian environmental history, Eurasian Research Institute for financing a short field research on Central Asian water and energy issues and for accepting me join a summer school there, the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank for supporting me travel for the annual meetings as a member of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey. My eight years at the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey contributed to my knowledge on and my analytical understanding of macroeconomic issues, which were of great help during the completion of this study. I would like to thank all my colleagues for their under- standing during the times I left for the courses and seminars I attended. Needless to say, all the views expressed in this thesis belong solely to me. Likewise, I bear the responsibility of all the mistakes and errors that I may have omitted in this text. ix TABLE OF CONTENTS PLAGIARISM ........................................................................................................ iii ABSTRACT ........................................................................................................... iv ÖZ ........................................................................................................................... vi ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ................................................................................... ix TABLE OF CONTENTS ........................................................................................ x LIST OF TABLES ............................................................................................... xiv LIST OF FIGURES .............................................................................................. xvi LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS ..............................................................................
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