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Central Asia the Caucasus CENTRAL ASIA AND THE CAUCASUS Volume 12 Issue 1 2011 CENTRAL ASIA AND THE CAUCASUS Journal of Social and Political Studies Published since 2000 Volume 12 Issue 1 2011 CA&CC Press® SWEDEN 1 Volume 12 IssueFOUNDED 1 2011 AND PUBLISHEDCENTRAL ASIA AND BYTHE CAUCASUS INSTITUTE INSTITUTE OF FOR CENTRAL ASIAN AND STRATEGIC STUDIES OF CAUCASIAN STUDIES THE CAUCASUS Registration number: 620720-0459 Registration number: M-770 State Administration for Ministry of Justice of Patents and Registration of Sweden Azerbaijan Republic PUBLISHING HOUSE CA&CC Press®. SWEDEN Registration number: 556699-5964 Journal registration number: 23 614 State Administration for Patents and Registration of Sweden E d i t o r i a l C o u n c i l Eldar Chairman of the Editorial Council ISMAILOV Tel./fax: (994 - 12) 497 12 22 E-mail: [email protected] Murad ESENOV Editor-in-Chief Tel./fax: (46) 920 62016 E-mail: [email protected] Jannatkhan Deputy Editor-in-Chief EYVAZOV Tel./fax: (994 - 12) 596 11 73 E-mail: [email protected] Timur represents the journal in Kazakhstan (Astana) SHAYMERGENOV Tel./fax: (+7 - 701) 531 61 46 E-mail: [email protected] Leonid represents the journal in Kyrgyzstan (Bishkek) BONDARETS Tel.: (+996 - 312) 65-48-33 E-mail: [email protected] Jamila MAJIDOVA represents the journal in Tajikistan (Dushanbe) Tel.: (992 - 917) 72 81 79 E-mail: [email protected] Farkhad represents the journal in Uzbekistan (Tashkent) TOLIPOV Tel.: (9987-1) 125 43 22 E-mail: [email protected] Ziya KENGERLI represents the journal in Azerbaijan (Baku) Tel.: (+994 - 50) 3006694 E-mail: [email protected] Haroutiun represents the journal in Armenia (Erevan) KHACHATRIAN Tel.: (374-10) 56 59 65 E-mail: [email protected] Kakhaber ERADZE represents the journal in Georgia (Tbilisi) Tel.: (+995 - 95) 45 82 88 E-mail: [email protected] Sun ZHUANGZHI represents the journal in China (Beijing) Tel.: (86) 10-64039088 E-mail: [email protected] Konrad SCHÄFFLER represents the journal in Germany (Munich) Tel.: (49 - 89) 3003132 E-mail: [email protected] Vladimir MESAMED represents the journal in the Middle East (Jerusalem) Tel.: (972 - 2) 5882332 E-mail: [email protected] Irina EGOROVA represents the journal in the Russian Federation (Moscow) Tel.: (7 - 495) 3163146 E-mail: [email protected] Robert GUANG TIAN represents the journal in the U.S. (Buffalo, NY) Tel: (716) 880-2104 E-mail: [email protected] Rustem ZHANGUZHIN represents the journal in Ukraine (Kiev) Tel.: (380-44) 524-79-132 E-mail: [email protected] CENTRAL ASIA AND THEE DCAUCASUS I T O R I A L B O A R DVolume 12 Issue 1 2011 Giuli ALASANIA Doctor of History, professor, Vice Rector of the International Black Sea University (Georgia) Bülent ARAS Doctor, Chair, Department of International Relations, Fatih University (Turkey) Mariam ARUNOVA Doctor of Political Science, leading research associate, Institute of Oriental Studies, RAS (Russian Federation) Garnik ASATRIAN Doctor of Philology, professor, head of the Department of Iranian Studies, Erevan State University (Armenia) Bakyt BESHIMOV Doctor of History, professor, Vice President, American University-Central Asia (Kyrgyzstan) Ariel COHEN Doctor, leading analyst, The Heritage Foundation, U.S.A. (U.S.A.) William FIERMAN Doctor of Political Science, Professor of Indiana University (U.S.A.) Paul GOBLE Senior Advisor, Voice of America (U.S.A.) Sergei GRETSKY Doctor, Chair of Central Asian Studies, Foreign Service Institute, U.S. Department of State (U.S.A.) Xing GUANGCHENG Doctor of Political Science, professor, Deputy Director of the Institute for East European, Russian and Central Asian Studies, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (China) Alexander IGNATENKO President, Institute of Religion and Politics, Doctor of Philosophy, specialist in Islamic studies, leading expert of the Institute of Social Systems, Moscow State University, member of the Council for Cooperation with Religious Associations under the Russian Federation President (Russian Federation) Ashurboi IMOMOV Ph.D. (Law), assistant professor, head of the Department of Constitutional Law, Tajik National University (Tajikistan) Lena JONSON Doctor, senior researcher, Swedish Institute of International Affairs (Sweden) Klara KHAFIZOVA Doctor of History, Director, Center for Strategic and International Studies, professor at the International Relations and Foreign Policy Department, Kainar University (Kazakhstan) Jacob M. LANDAU Professor of Political Science, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem (Israel) S. Neil MACFARLANE Professor, Director, Center for International Studies, The University of Oxford (Great Britain) Alexei MALASHENKO Doctor of History, professor, Scholar-in-Residence, Ethnicity and Nation-Building Program Co-Chair, The Carnegie Moscow Center (Russian Federation) Abbas MALEKI Dr., Director General, International Institute for Caspian Studies (Iran) Akira Ph.D., History of Central Asia and the Caucasus, Program Officer, The Sasakawa Peace MATSUNAGA Foundation (Japan) Roger N. McDERMOTT Honorary Senior Research Fellow, Department of Politics and International Relations, University of Kent at Canterbury (UK) Vitaly NAUMKIN Doctor of History, professor, Director, Center for Strategic and International Studies of RF (Russian Federation) Yerengaip OMAROV Professor, Rector of Kainar University, President of the Academy of Natural Sciences, Republic of Kazakhstan (Kazakhstan) Vladimer PAPAVA Doctor of Economics, professor, Corresponding member of the Georgian Academy of Sciences, Senior Fellow of the Georgian Foundation for Strategic and International Studies (Georgia) S. Frederick STARR Professor, Chairman, The Central Asia-Caucasus Institute, The Johns Hopkins University (U.S.A.) The materials that appear in the journal do not necessarily reflect the Editorial Board and the Editors’ opinion Editorial Office: CA&CC Press AB Hubertusstigen 9. 97455 Luleå SWEDEN WEB ADDRESS: http://www.ca-c.org © Central Asia and the Caucasus, 2011 © CA&CC Press®, 3 2011 Volume 12 Issue 1 2011 CENTRAL ASIA AND THE CAUCASUS CENTRAL ASIA AND THE CAUCASUS Journal of Social and Political Studies Volume 12 Issue 1 2011 IN THIS ISSUE: REGIONAL SECURITY Jannatkhan THE WEST AND Eyvazov. POST-SOVIET CENTRAL EURASIA: CERTAIN ASPECTS OF AMERICAN AND EU SECURITY STRATEGY IN THE REGION ................................................................. 7 Eldar CENTRAL ASIA: Gabdullin. GEOPOLITICS, SECURITY, AND DEVELOPMENT SCENARIOS ............................................... 22 Georgy FORECAST ON Dubovtsev, THE MILITARY-POLITICAL SITUATION EMERGING Erlan IN THE WORLD AND Galymzhanuly. THE CENTRAL ASIAN REGION ........................................... 36 Shaislam THE INTERNATIONAL COALITION Akmalov. IN AFGHANISTAN: CERTAIN ASPECTS OF STRATEGY ................................... 44 4 CENTRAL ASIA AND THE CAUCASUS Volume 12 Issue 1 2011 REGIONAL POLITICS Mahir IRAN AND THE SOUTHERN CAUCASUS: Khalifa-zadeh. A STRUGGLE FOR INFLUENCE ...................................... 51 Marco ABKHAZIA, KOSOVO AND Siddi. THE RIGHT TO EXTERNAL SELF-DETERMINATION OF PEOPLES .................................. 62 David SOME ASPECTS OF CHINA’S POLICY Babayan. IN THE CAUCASUS ..................................................... 70 Bakhtiar CENTRAL ASIA’S Bakas uulu, HYDROPOWER PROBLEMS: Kadyrzhan REGIONAL STATES’ POLICY AND Smagulov. DEVELOPMENT PROSPECTS .......................................... 81 Amalia ARMENIA’S SOCIOECONOMIC POTENTIAL Saribekian. IN THE CONTEXT OF POST-CRISIS DEVELOPMENT ............ 87 Konstantin CHINA’S PRESENCE Syroezhkin. IN KAZAKHSTAN: MYTHS AND REALITY ................................... 101 Murat SOME PROBLEMS OF Laumulin. KAZAKHSTAN’S CURRENT FOREIGN POLICY ......................... 114 Ikbalzhan THE KYRGYZ REPUBLIC: Mirsayitov. A NEW POLITICAL REALITY ............................................... 124 Farkhad DEMOCRATIC STRUCTURALIZING IN UZBEKISTAN: Tolipov. THE MULTIPARTY SYSTEM AND THE OPPOSITION ................................................... 132 REGIONAL STUDIES Bakhodyr NATIONAL IDEOLOGY Ergashev. IN THE INDEPENDENT STATES OF CENTRAL ASIA AND THE SOUTHERN CAUCASUS: ITS PHENOMENON, SPECIFICS, AND PROSPECTS .................................................... 141 5 Volume 12 Issue 1 2011 CENTRAL ASIA AND THE CAUCASUS Maxim RUSSIA AS A SUBJECT OF Kirchanov. THE IDEOLOGY OF GEORGIAN NATIONALISM .......................................... 150 MASS MEDIA Bakytzhan THE POLITICAL INTERNET Temirbolat. IN KAZAKHSTAN: TRENDS, PROBLEMS, AND PROSPECTS ..................................................... 158 FOR YOUR INFORMATION The Special Feature section in the next issue will discuss: n Central Eurasia: Religion in the Sociopolitical Context n Energy Policy and Energy Projects in Central Eurasia n Regional Centers of Power and Their Policy in Central Eurasia 6 CENTRAL ASIA AND THE CAUCASUS Volume 12 Issue 1 2011 REGIONAL SECURITY THE WEST AND POST-SOVIET CENTRAL EURASIA: CERTAIN ASPECTS OF AMERICAN AND EU SECURITY STRATEGY IN THE REGION Jannatkhan EYVAZOV Ph.D. (Political Science), Deputy Director, Institute of Strategic Studies of the Caucasus, Deputy Editor-in-Chief of Central Asia and the Caucasus (Baku, Azerbaijan) Introduction he threat of a wide-scale armed attack on the gy in Central Eurasia,1 their key security interests United States and its European allies disap- in the region and policy aimed at realization of T peared together with the Soviet Union. The these interests. post-Soviet space, however, became a zone of what can be described as “sustained political
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