The Endless Election: 1990 in The
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FIB Papers Wissenschaftszentrum Berlin für Sozialforschung Veröffentlichungsreihe der Forschungsgruppe Internationale Beziehungen P 91 - 302 The Endless Election: 1990 in the GDR Thomas R. Cusack and Wolf-Dieter Eberwein Publication Series of the International Relations Research Group Reichpietschufer 50 D 1000 Berlin 30 Die in dieser Arbeit vertretenen Auffassungen sind die des Verfassers und nicht notwendigerweise die der Forschungsgruppe Internationale Beziehungen. The views expressed in this paper are those of the author and not necessarily those of the International Relations Research Group. The assistance of Carsten Johnson, Katrin Gaertner, Jörg Stangl, and Susanne Fuchs in helping to prepare and organize the data sets used in the analysis reported in this paper is gratefully acknowledged. ABSTRACT The fall of the SED regime led to the first free election in the GDR. The March 18, 1990 Volkskammer election was quickly followed by another three, the communal, state, and then the first all-German Bundestag elections. This paper reviews some of the arguments about the outcomes of these elections, describes the outcomes at both the national and state level, and analyzes some aspects of the election outcomes. Using data at the Kreis level (227 electoral-administrative units), evidence is provided that suggests at least part of the notable decline in electoral participation over this series of elections appears to be related to an exit from the electoral system by SED-PDS supporters. In addition, the relative success and failure of the CDU and the PDS appear to be related to, respectively, the ability and inability of these two parties to appeal to the interests and sentiments of the working class in the area of the former GDR. ZUSAMMENFASSUNG Der Niedergang des SED-Regimes hat zu den ersten freien Wahlen in der DDR geführt. Auf die Wahlen zur Volkskammer am 18. März 1990 folgten in schneller Abfolge gleich drei weitere, die Kommunalwahlen, die Wahlen zu den neu geschaffenen Länderparlamenten und schließlich die ersten gesamtdeutschen Wahlen. Zunächst erfolgt ein Überblick der Erklärungen zum Ausgang dieser Wahlen. Im Anschluß daran werden die Ergebnisse der Wahlen insgesamt als auch auf Länderebene dargestellt und ausgewählte Aspekte näher analysiert. Auf der Grundlage der Ergebnisse der 227 Kreise wird deutlich, daß der beachtliche Rückgang der Wahlbeteiligung zumindest teilweise mit dem Rückzug der SED-PDS Wähler aus dem Wahlsystem erklärt werden kann. Darüber dinaus scheinen der relative Erfolg der CDU bzw. der Mißerfolg der PDS mit der Fähigkeit der beiden Parteien verknüpft zu sein, die Interessen und Gefühle der Arbeiterschaft in der ehemaligen DDR in Unterstützung umzusetzen. Table of Contents Introduction ................................................................................................................... 1 Alternative Explanations ............................................................................................. 2 Description and A nalysis............................................................................................. 7 Conclusion..................................................................................................................... 21 References ..................................................................................................................... 24 Introduction The breakdown of Communism in Eastern Europe has been characterized as the black Friday of the social sciences by von Beyme (1990a:475). Few had theorized about and even fewer had predicted the end of the former Stalinist regimes and with them the collapse of the post World War II bipolar structure and Soviet hegemony in the region. All of the East European states are now enmeshed in a transition that many hope will lead to stable democratic order. Whether this will occur or not is, as with the breakdown, something social science cannot answer today. But, in the case of the German Democratic Republic (GDR), this may be less problematic in both theoretical and practical terms. The German problem, at least in the eyes of some Germans, was solved with the unification. Of all the nations that are now in the process of transition to democracy, the once GDR is in a privileged position. "The former GDR is about to slip into a new paternalistic relationship, in order to allow all its problems to be solved by a big brother" (von Beyme, 1990b: 180). This last statement may be somewhat misleading in that it could be taken to mean that the citizens of the former GDR have completely renounced any further action within the political sphere. There is no sign of that and there will be many opportunities in the future where their actions in this sphere will not only influence their own lives but also those of others. The East German voters played a critical role in deciding which party or parties should be given the responsibility to solve the massive problems that are now on the agenda of the Federal Republic. This opportunity arose in the first elections of the united Germany in December 1990. This election was the last in what at times seemed an endless series beginning with the first free elections to the People’s Chamber (Volkskammer) in March 1990, followed by the local elections in May and continued by the first elections of the newly reestablished Länder (states) in October 1990. These elections in the former GDR offer an opportunity for systematic empirical analysis of the special case of the German transition process. This might serve as a starting point for understanding the evolution of new patterns of political behavior within a population that had not had the opportunity to express freely its own preferences. Such understanding might help as well to shed light on some of the problems Germany confronts as the attempt is made to integrate it into a single political community. In these four elections the Christian Democrats (CDU), the strongest ally of the Socialist Unity Party (SED) in the former block party system, rose like a phoenix from the ashes and consistently attracted the largest number of the votes. What struck Western observers was the fact that this party found its strongest base of support among the blue collar workers, a group many, based upon Western experience, had anticipated would lean heavily toward the Social Democratic Party (SPD). Indeed, given the socio-economic makeup of this former workers’ state, the SPD was expected to emerge as the dominant political force. As things turned out, it only managed to achieve the status of the largest minority parliamentary grouping. Furthermore, the revolutionaries, who had played a decisive role in forcing the Stalinist system to declare default, were marginalized politically by the electorate. Page 2 The fundamental political choice expressed in these elections needs to be explained. The predominant explanations of electoral behavior in the West (cf. Falter and Schumann, 1989) are of limited use. Free elections had never taken place in the former GDR and the new party system was only in its formative stage. Despite this, voting behavior showed a consistent pattern of a "conservative majority," as Feist (1990) has called it, across all of the four elections. Whether this will contribute to overcoming the cleavages of the old exclusionary system or lead to establishing a yet another one between this new conservative majority and a fragmented Left remains to be seen. In the next section we review some of the explanations that have been offered to account for the voting behavior of the electorate in the area of the GDR. In the third section we turn to a description of how the patterns of voting behavior have developed in this quick succession of elections. This is followed by a preliminary assessment of one explanation for a major outcome of all of these elections, viz., the popular acceptance of a party with a program of radical change in the political-economic sphere. The description and analysis presented here draws upon data provided by various statistical offices. These data include information on electoral results and socio-economic characteristics of the 227 Kreise or districts within the region of the GDR. The paper concludes with a brief discussion of the problems and prospects confronting Germany in the integration process and what the results from these elections might entail. Alternative Explanations The results of the first free elections came as a surprise to many, if not most, observers. Results from the first public opinion polls, taken at the beginning of January in 1990, depicted the SPD as the very likely winner by a large margin. The CDU and its Allianz appeared to be a weak and not very popular contestant. Within a few weeks, however, the picture changed dramatically. The Social Democratic Party, expected to win the first free elections, was overtaken by the Allianz für Deutschland, dominated by the East German Christian Democrats.^ As the three elections later in the year revealed, this was not another ephemeral spike on the graph measuring the public pulse. Why did this happen? There is one point of agreement among the analysts of electoral behavior in East Germany: it can not be explained by reference to West German voting behavior nor is the theoretical apparatus used in accounting for that behavior applicable to East Germany (Feist, 1990; Gibowski, 1990; Gibowski/Kaase, 1991; Roth, 1990). Explaining the election outcomes at this stage is still something of a speculative enterprise. Three different clusters