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Russia & CIS Express a Look at Key Issues and Trends www.pwc.co.uk/russia Russia & CIS Express A look at key issues and trends Our Russia & CIS Business Group discuss business opportunities, what’s happening in some key sectors, and economic and political developments. Spring 2011 In this issue: Inside Cover From our Editor Page 2 Russia and the other BRICs Page 4 Growth soars in Mongolia’s From our Editor banking sector Page 7 When is a Door Not a Door? The sheer scale of demand is Welcome enormous, with a number of high- Page 10 Following a challenging past year, profile private investments already The land of opportunity when drought and heat-wave improved. These include multiple – Russia’s surging demand for slowed down economic activity, PPPs and concessions in the St new infrastructure investment Russia’s growth trajectory is firmly Petersburg and Moscow regions, back on track. And with inflation Page 14 from the Western High-Speed predicted to recede in the second The view from the hustings Diameter, the Orlovsky Tunnel and half of 2011, the climate for the Nadex light rail project. The Page 15 investment looks increasingly utilities sectors are seeing even Sochi 2014 attractive. more activity and government support for technology and Page 17 This macro backdrop aligns innovation is another high-priority Taking the long-term view favourably with government plans area. to privatise several state-owned Page 18 enterprises through to 2013. And Looking ahead, Russia’s host role in Russia’s banks back on the with a raft of business-friendly two major sporting events – the investment radar reforms scheduled – including the 2014 Olympic and Paralympic abolition of capital gains tax on Winter Games and the 2018 World Page 22 long-term investments from 2011 – Cup – can only boost demand for Belarus – prospects for growth? there are real causes for optimism. foreign investor participation. In this issue of PwC’s1 Russia and As we report in this issue, CIS Express, we showcase some of preparations for the Sochi 2014 the opportunities now coming on Games are already well underway, stream. Russia’s surging demand with a massive programme of for new infrastructure investment development ongoing in Russia’s is a case in point. Since President Caucasian Black Sea region. Besides Putin’s 2007 announcement that funding a new, state-of-the-art US$1 trillion would be needed to national winter sports centre, the modernise the country’s US$9.7 billion investment is set to infrastructure over the next 10 transform the local and regional years, all levels of government are infrastructures, turning the focusing on fostering the right surrounding Krasnodar district into environment for private a year-round tourism destination investment. supported by new air, road and rail links, alongside upgraded utility projects and 21st century communications. 1. In this document, “PwC” refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (a limited liability partnership in the United Kingdom), which is a member firm of PricewaterhouseCoopers International Limited, each member firm of which is a separate legal entity. Crucially too, the Sochi 2014 foreign buyers to fund future ‘journey’ will continue long after the growth. Games have concluded. By ensuring compliance with rigorous local, Further afield, we report on surging national and international growth in Mongolia’s economy – environmental regulation, a core and, specifically, the opportunities priority is safeguarding the region’s that this is creating for rapid ecosystem and setting a new expansion in the domestic financial standard for environmentally sector. As the country’s mining efficient construction throughout boom gathers pace, some observers Russia. At a grass-roots level, Sochi’s believe that it has the natural Nick Page sporting infrastructure should resources and economic potential to Editor deliver lasting benefits to future become the ‘new Qatar’. [email protected] generations. To take just one Commercial bank assets have example, the new Russia doubled in the past three years and, International Olympic University, as the country’s vast mineral being built in Sochi, will produce a potential is further exploited, huge new generation of sports managers, demand is predicted in both satisfying demand in Russia and corporate lending and retail worldwide for highly-qualified business. specialists in event management. The recent strategic partnership The ambition driving progress to announced between the London Sochi 2014 and the World Cup looks Stock Exchange and the relatively set to redefine the art of the possible under-developed Mongolian Stock in international event management. Exchange should provide a welcome And with the eyes of the world boost to the financial infrastructure, trained on Russia, there is every putting in place a firm foundation incentive to ensure world-class for IPOs, dual listings and strategic performance at every level. That partnerships with international said, Russia (and the CIS) continue investors. And with ING one of only to demand a long-term view from a few international banking groups foreign investors, as Sir John on the ground, the potential for Stuttard, co-chair of the Kazakh- significant competitive advantage is British Trade & Industry Council, there for other early movers, explains later in this edition. provided they are prepared to put down roots in the country. This is especially true of Russia’s financial sector, where more needs Of course, the song remains the to be done to improve the quality of same in some ways. Financial sector underlying contract law and reforms are urgently needed to regulation. That said, investor strengthen governance, interest in Russia’s banks is transparency and capital adequacy. definitely on the increase. Although But provided these are forthcoming, the sector has bounced emphatically there is every indication that this since the financial crisis, recording a country – long off the map for most combined net profit for 2010 of foreign investors – will start to be around US$20 billion, multiples seen as a sustainable engine for remain relatively low and many future growth across the region. local banks, particularly in the mid-tier segment, are keen to attract Spring 2011 1 While the breakdown of growth in Q3 2010 is not yet available at the time of writing, the Q2 2010 growth indicates domestic demand has been driving output (see Chart 1). Exports showed very weak growth compared to the spectacular growth recorded in the year to the first Russia and the other quarter. At the same time imports surged, shrinking the current account surplus from US$33.3bn in BRICs: first among equals Q1 to US$18.7bn in Q2 2010. The Central Bank might hike interest rate further In response to these economic developments, the Russian Each quarter, PwC’s Macroconsulting team produces an in-depth Economic Government took measures such as View report focused on the fast-growing BRIC economies (Brazil, Russia, the banning of grain exports in India and China). These reports can be downloaded at www.pwc.co.uk/ August 2010. However inflation economy continued to accelerate, rising from 6.1% in August to 8% in November Here is a summary of some of the highlights from the latest edition, focusing 2010 on account of rising food particularly on the analysis on Russia. prices. In December 2010 the central bank took the first step away from the loose monetary policy implemented after the financial BRICs: the current state of Russia: domestic demand crisis, by raising the deposit rates by play—an overview comes to the fore 25 basis points taking them to Overall, the BRIC economies have Russia’s fast-paced economic growth 2.75%, but left the benchmark managed to navigate the financial lost steam in Q3 2010 with the refinancing rate unchanged. crisis and global recession relatively economy growing at half the pace well. Brazil, India and China seen in Q2. The slowdown of growth Further rate hikes are expected in registered strong growth in 2010, in Q3 2010 was widely expected on the first half of 2011 if inflation although Russia’s growth rate account of the failed harvest and continues to remain high. With the lagged behind as drought and a heat heat wave. wave slowed down the pace of economic activity and triggered an acceleration in inflation. However, Russia’s growth is now catching up Chart 1: GDP forecasts for BRIC economies strongly with the other BRICs as its economy rebounds (see Chart 1). Brazil Russia India China On account of economic expansion 10% and rising food prices in the BRIC countries, their headline inflation rates rose above their official central 5% bank targets in 2010. A potential easing in inflationary pressures is 0% expected as policy-makers resort to fiscal and monetary tightening. This -5% could facilitate growth at more sustainable rates in 2012 following the strong recovery in 2010 and -10% slight moderation in 2011. 2009 2010e 2011f 2012f Source: Economic views BRIC, PwC January 2011 2 Russia & CIS Express likelihood of the export ban on reforms announced earlier, such as Another factor that might slow wheat being extended until the end the abolition of capital gains tax on down economic growth is the of this year and ongoing monetary long term investments from 2011 slowing of export growth tightening, headline inflation should and the reduction of foreign accompanied by rising import ease off in the second half of next investment restrictions. Fuelled by growth. According to latest balance year to average around 6.7% in 2011 strong domestic demand, we expect of payments data, the current and 7.1% in 2012. Russia to grow at 4.3% in 2011 and account surplus has been shrinking 4.8% in 2012. through last year, reaching US$8.7bn in Q3 2010, down from Government policies to US$33.3bn in Q1 2010.
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