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CFA Institute Research Challenge Hosted by CFA Society Taiwan National Taiwan University CFA Institute Research Challenge Hosted by CFA Society Taiwan National Taiwan University PRESIDENT CHAIN STORE CORP (2912.TT) SELL CFA Institute Research Challenge‧ NTU Team Jan 19, 2014 Equity | Taiwan | Retail 19 January 2014 Slower further growth, more future risks Target Price: NT$ 162 / US$5.36 Price (19 Jan 2014): Taiwan CVS revenue growth deteriorates when competitors catch up NT$ 193 / US$6.39 We see limited further benefits from expanding store scale after 58% of its Upside/Downside: convenient stores (CVS) have been transformed into large store format. -16 % The conversion of remaining CVS into large store format might become profitless considering challenges from space availability and aggressive competitors adopting similar strategies. We expect the growth of CVS’s average sales per store to decrease from 8.4% in 2012 to 2% in 2018, while ¢ Trading Data gross margin may become stagnated going forward. Date Established 19-Jan-2014 Hard to expect sharp growth from retail subsidiaries 52-Week Range NT$ 157-NT$ 223 Among the retail subsidiaries such as President Pharmaceutical and Mkt Val / Shares Out (mn) NT$ 200,647/ 1,040 Cosmed, we only see stable growth of the persistent subsidiaries while the Avg. 3M Daily Volume (mn) 1.14 powerless ones still showed no signs of potential turnaround. President Bloomberg / Reuters 2912 TT / 2912.TW Pharmaceutical faces intensifying competition of facial mask industry in ROE (2013F) 29.2% China and sluggish industry growth prospect in Taiwan while Cosmed will Free Float 49.4% further lag behind industry leader, Watsons, due to slow expansion and the Dividend Yield 2.5% lack of innovative strategies. As a result, we see NI CAGR will tumble to 8.6% in 2014-2016 from 30% in 2010-2013. Starbucks might disappoint the catering growth 230 8,800 Shanghai Starbucks has seen intensifying competition along with its 210 8,400 slowing store expansion. We are also concerned about the relatively higher 190 National Taiwan University expense ratios and believe market consensus could be too bullish. 8,000 As for Taiwan Starbucks, the market has become more saturated compared 170 Randy Cheng [email protected] Chris Fu [email protected] with other Asia countries, leading to our conservative attitude toward the 150 7,600 prospect of Taiwan Starbucks’ expansion. Daniel Lai [email protected] Tom Lee [email protected] Wendy Lu [email protected] Pre. Chain Store TSE Taiex 2010 2011 2012 2013F 2014F 2015F Revenue 169,917 189,252 208,264 217,284 232,394 248,123 Net Income 5,726 6,352 6,789 8,399 8,518 9,215 National Taiwan University Randy Cheng [email protected] Earnings per Share 5.51 6.10 6.53 8.08 8.51 8.86 Chris Fu [email protected] Daniel Lai [email protected] EPS Growth (%) 41.1 10.9 6.9 23.7 5.4 4.10 Tom Lee [email protected] Dividend per Share 4.90 4.80 4.85 4.95 5.05 5.15 Wendy Lu [email protected] Dividend yield (%) 3.03 2.94 3.22 2.20 2.32 2.41 Book Value per Share 19.44 19.91 22.04 25.27 28.78 32.64 Return on Asset (%) 8.46 8.86 8.73 9.87 9.49 9.03 Return on Equity (%) 25.34 26.68 26.70 29.14 26.48 24.02 This report is published for educational purposes only by students competing in the CFA Institute ResearchBusiness Challenge Description:. 1 CFA Institute Research Challenge‧NTU Team Jan 19, 2014 Business Description Figure 1: Revenue breakdown by business Best leader, but advantage narrowing President Chain Store Corporation (PCSC) was founded by Uni-President Enterprise in 1978 as a CVS brand. Nowadays, it has become the retail conglomerate operating 55 subsidiaries and its operations are divided into 3 business segments and 1 support function: (1) Convenience store (CVS) segment, which includes 7-11 in Taiwan, Shanghai and the Philippines. (2) Retail segment, which includes Cosmed, Transnet, Pharmaceutical and others. (3) Catering segment, which includes Starbucks in Taiwan and Shanghai. (4) Logistics support function, which supports all the business segments. Source: Company data Convenience store segment (CVS, 68% of revenue) Figure 2: Profit breakdown by business 7-11 Taiwan: Core business Since the opening of the first convenience store in 1979, 7-11 Taiwan has become the leader of the convenience store industry with a market share of around 49% and reshaped Taiwanese’s daily lives. With a strong network of stores and dynamic group synergy, 7-11 Taiwan provides comprehensive products and one-stop shopping services as a representation of convenient lives. 7-11 Shanghai: Loss producing Since 7-11 entered into Shanghai market in 2009, 7-11 Shanghai has had only Source: Company data 75 stores with 1% market share and suffered from the strenuous burden of its operation costs. The insignificant market share and cost pressure culminate in 7-11 Shanghai’s continuous loss-making to this day. Figure 3: Ownership structure of PCSC 7-11 Philippines: Rapid growth PCSC invested Philippine Seven Corporation in 2000. It has dominated 70% of the market with 1,012 stores in 2013 and it plans to expand the number of Corporate 46% stores with 25% growth rate annually and sets a target of 2,000 stores by Retail Investor 2017. 12% Other Retail segment (27%) Foreign Institutions Investor Cosmed: Slow expansion 1% 41% Founded in 1995, Cosmed is one of the major drugstore chains in Taiwan with 358 stores in 2012. Their competition position is weakening due to the threats Source: Company data from Watsons, the industry leader in Taiwan. Figure 4: 7-11 Taiwan Sales Breakdown President Pharmaceutical: Facing fierce competition Founded in 1992, President Pharmaceutical is a retailer and wholesaler of Non-food health and beauty products in Taiwan. The company holds a portfolio of Avene, Products Food Kawai Kanyu Drops, and Nature Made brands. 50% of its revenue comes from 28% Services its private label products, My Beauty Diary, which sells facial masks. General 16% Food Catering segment (4%) Products Others Beverages Starbucks: Most profitable 10% 11% 35% Founded in 1998 with a share of 30% in the joint venture, President Starbucks has 300 stores in Taiwan and 345 stores in Shanghai and Zhejiang Province in 2013. Source: Company data 2 CFA Institute Research Challenge‧NTU Team Jan 19, 2014 Industry Overview and Competitive Positioning Figure 5: Declining GDP growth restricts domestic consumption CVS sales is highly correlated to GDP growth (Appendix 3). Taiwan GDP growth has slowed down in recent years, which might be as low as 2% in 2014 and stay lethargic until 2018. (Appendix 4.) Declining real monthly salary and the reforms of social insurance impact domestic consumption as well (Figure 5, ), which is expected to be only 1.6% in 2013 and unlikely to revive in 2014, directly restricting CVS sales growth. Saturated Taiwan CVS market, rising competition from other retailers There are already more than 10,000 convenience stores in Taiwan as of Feb, 2014. Taiwan CVS market is mature with a density of 42.8 stores per 100K people, the highest in the world, compared with 36.7 for Japan and 19.5 for Source: Company data and Team estimates Shanghai. Therefore, there is little room for new convenience stores in Taiwan. Figure 6: Highest CVS density(stores/ The number of CVS grows slowly in recent years (Figure 6.); with new stores 100K people) implies the market mature mostly set up by major competitor. The boundary between CVS and other retails such as wholesale stores and department stores are diminishing. For instance, Pxmart starts to provide fresh food and initiates private-label products and ecommerce business. Hiking operating cost In Taiwan, although most CVS have already adopted LED light to reduce utilities expense, margin will decrease as Taiwan Power Company raised the price of electricity. Besides, the rise of minimum hourly wage will further affect CVS operating margin. (Appendix 5, 6.) Source: Company data and Team estimates Lack of new products cycle Companies are focusing on boosting the sales contribution of fresh food and converting stores to the large format, which would be beneficial to Figure 7: Family Mart catching up in same-store-sales growth. Revenue and profit growth are currently supported market share (in terms of stores #) by the rising sales of higher-margin products and continuous penetration of 52.0% 48.5% 50% non-product services. However, these strategies are becoming less effective. 40% E-commerce is considered as the new opportunity for CVS, while the 28.7% contribution is still very little. 30% 25.2% 20% Food safety concerns 10% Several food scandals broke out recently, such as tainted starch and fake 0% cotton oil events. Many products in convenience stores were involved and thus 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Family Mart PCSC affected CVS reputation and customers’ confidence. The share price also reflected impact of these events. (Appendix 7.) As Taiwanese people are more Source: Company data caring about food safety, it becomes a concern for CVS. Figure 8: Family Mart catching up in Competition Positioning: More future threats 2012-13 sales growth PCSC operates 7-11 in Taiwan, commanding 49.7% of the CVS market in terms of number of stores in 3Q13. Yet the aggressive store expansion and 20% 15% similar strategies of competitors may limit PCSC’s future development. 10% 1. Family Mart: The second largest operator is catching up quickly 5% The market share of Family Mart has grown from 25.2% in 2008 to 28.7% 0% in 2013, narrowing its gap by 7% with PCSC’s 52.0% to 48.5%.
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