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Observatoire De La Dissuasion Bulletin Mensuel BULLETIN n°67 ETE5049 2019 Observatoire de la Dissuasion Bulletin mensuel EMMANUELLE MAITRE Observatoire sous la direction de BRUNO TERTRAIS avec soutien le de la WWW.FRSTRATEGIE.ORG | 4 BIS RUE DES PATURES 75016 PARIS | TEL : 01.43.13.77.77 | MAIL : [email protected] SIRET 39409553300052 TVA FR74 394 095 533 CODE APE 7220Z FONDATION RECONNUE D’UTILITÉ PUBLIQUE DÉCRET DU 26 FÉVRIER 1993 SOMMAIRE AVANT-PROPOS ......................................................................................................... 3 VEILLE ......................................................................................................................... 4 1. États-Unis .................................................................................................... 4 2. Russie .......................................................................................................... 4 3. Chine............................................................................................................ 4 4. Corée du Nord ............................................................................................. 4 5. Monde .......................................................................................................... 5 QUESTIONS POLITIQUES ET STRATÉGIQUES ........................................................ 6 3. Que s’est-il passé à Nyonoksa ? Par Emmanuelle Maitre............................................................................... 6 4. Controverse sur la doctrine nucléaire américaine Par Bruno Tertrais ...................................................................................... 9 QUESTIONS TECHNIQUES, TECHNOLOGIQUES ET INDUSTRIELLES ................. 11 1. Applications nucléaires de l’automatisation : rappels historiques Par Benjamin Hautecouverture ................................................................ 11 PUBLICATIONS ET SEMINAIRES ............................................................................. 14 1. L’orthodoxie nucléaire russe : à propos d’un livre de Dmitry Adamsky Par Bruno Tertrais .................................................................................... 14 2. On Creating the Conditions for Nuclear Disarmament: Past Lessons, Future Prospects Brad Roberts, The Washington Quarterly, été 2019 ............................... 16 CALENDRIER ............................................................................................................ 17 FONDATION pour la RECHERCHE STRATÉGIQUE 2 Eté 2019 AVANT-PROPOS L’explosion d’un système radioactif le 9 août 2019 a alimenté de nom- breuses spéculations et a été l’occasion d’évoquer à nouveau les pos- sibles programmes militaires actuellement développés par la Russie. Ce numéro synthétise les principales thèses proposées à ce jour pour ex- pliquer son origine. Par ailleurs, il analyse le projet de document officiel américain intitulé JP-3-72, Nuclear Operations fuité pendant quelques temps sur internet. Enfin, il poursuit la série consacrée au rôle de l’intelligence artificielle au regard de la dissuasion nucléaire. Concernant les publications, ce numéro évoque l’ouvrage de Dmitry Adamsky sur les relations entre l’Église orthodoxe de Moscou et les forces stratégiques russes ; ainsi qu’un article de Brad Roberts sur la politique nucléaire du Président Obama. Ce bulletin est réalisé avec le soutien du Ministère des Armées. Les informations et analyses contenues dans ce docu- ment sont sous la seule responsabilité des auteurs et n’engagent ni le Ministère des Armées, ni aucune autre institution. FONDATION pour la RECHERCHE STRATÉGIQUE 3 VEILLE appareil devrait voler en dé- 1. États-Unis cembre 20214. 3. Chine Du 2 au 3 juillet 2019, les États- Le 2 août 2019, les États-Unis se er Unis accueillent une délégation de Du 30 juin au 1 juillet 2019, la retirent formellement du Traité 42 pays pour le premier atelier de Chine aurait procédé à des tirs de FNI5. missiles antinavires en mer de Chine, travail de l’initiative CEND.1 a priori des DF-21D ou DF-268. Le 16 juillet 2019, le Départe- 2. Russie ment de la défense publie ses ap- pels d’offres pour la production 4. Corée du Nord des cinq premiers lots du GBSD2. Le 6 juillet 2019, Dmitry Rogozin Une semaine plus tard, Boeing annonce que le programme d’essai Le 25 juillet 2019, la Corée du annonce se retirer de la compéti- du RS-28 Sarmat devrait s’achever Nord procède à l’essai de deux tion, laissant le champ libre à Nor- fin 20206. nouveaux missiles de courte por- throp Grumman pour la phase de tée9, systèmes a priori à nouveau production des nouveaux ICBM3. Le 26 juillet 2019, les forces de testés le 2 août 201910 et le 9 missiles stratégiques russes tes- août 201911. Deux autres mis- Le 24 juillet 2019, un respon- tent un Topol depuis le site de sable de l’USAF indique que le Kasputin Yar7. programme B-21 Raider avance au rythme prévu et que le premier 1 William Potter, « Taking the Pulse at 5 « U.S. Withdrawal from the INF Treaty 9 Hyonshee Shin et David the Inaugural Meeting of the CEND Ini- on August 2, 2019 », Press Statement, Brunnstrom, « North Korea tiative », CNS, 15 juillet 2019. Michael R. Pompeo, Secretary of State, tests ballistic missiles, U.S. still 2 2 août 2019. hopeful for talks », Reuters, 24 Valerie Insinna, « Air Force’s next- 6 juillet 2019. gen ICBM program takes another step Franz-Stefan Gady, « Russia to Con- 10 forward », Defense News, 17 juillet clude Testing Phase of RS-28 Sarmat Barbara Starr et Ivana 2019. ICBM in 2020 », The Diplomat, 8 juillet Kottasová, « North Korea fires 2019. projectile in second launch of 3 Oriana Pawlyk, « Boeing Withdraws the week », CNN, 1er août 7 « Russia test launches Topol inter- from Competition to Build New Land- 2019. Based Nuclear Missile », Military.com, continental missile from Kapustin Yar 11 25 juillet 2019. range », TASS, 26 juillet 2019. Yoonjung Seo et Ryan Browne, « North Korea fires 4 John Tirpak, « B-21 to Fly in Decem- 8 Joseph Trevithik, « China's Reported another round of projectiles », ber 2021; More B-52s to Come out of Anti-Ship Ballistic Missile Test In The CNN, 9 août 2019. Boneyard », Air Force Magazine, 24 South China Sea Is A Big Deal, The juillet 2019. War Zone », The Drive, 2 juillet 2019. FONDATION pour la RECHERCHE STRATÉGIQUE 4 Observatoire de la dissuasion siles de courte portée sont es- Le 6 août 2019, date anniversaire sayés le 15 août12, et deux autres d’Hiroshima, la Bolivie devient le le 23 août 201913. 25e État à ratifier le TIAN, qui par- 6. Monde court donc la moitié du chemin nécessaire à son entrée en vi- 16 5. Pakistan La publication par Hugh White gueur . d’un ouvrage dans lequel il défend Le 29 août 2019, le Pakistan an- l’acquisition d’armes nucléaires par nonce l’essai du missile de courte l’Australie suscite de nombreux portée Ghaznavi14. commentaires dans la région15. Weapons? », Citizen Truth, 6 juillet 12 Joshua Berlinger, Jake Kwon et 14 « Pakistan successfully carried out 2019. Yoonjung Seo, « North Korea fires two night training launch of surface to sur- 16 more ballistic missiles as it vows to end face ballistic missile Ghaznavi, capable 9. Treaty on the Prohibition of Nu- talks with 'impudent' South Korea », of delivering multiple types of warheads clear Weapons, New York, 7 July 2017, CNN, 16 août 2019. upto a range of 290 kilometers », No United Nations Treaty Collection, actu- PR-156/2019-ISPR, Rawalpindi, 29 alisé au 26 août 2019. 13 Ryan Browne, Yoonjung Seo et août 2019. Junko Ogura, « North Korea launches 15 more short-range missiles, according to Yasmeen Rasidi, « Could it be Time US assessment », CNN, 23 août 2019. for Australia to Consider Nuclear FONDATION pour la RECHERCHE STRATÉGIQUE 5 QUESTIONS POLITIQUES ET STRATÉ GIQUES 3. Que s’est-il passé à Nyonoksa ? Par Emmanuelle Maitre Le 8 août 2019, un accident mortel survient aux alen- plus tard, Rosatom a déploré un bilan à cinq victimes, tours du site de tir de missiles de Nyonoksa, près de des ingénieurs travaillant dans son centre de Sarov. la ville de Severodvinsk, dans l’oblast d'Arkhangelsk. L’agence a estimé qu’un incendie avait débuté suite à Suite à la publication d’informations sur la diffusion de l’essai d’un moteur, engendrant son explosion. Cet es- substances radioactives liée à cet accident, plusieurs sai aurait concerné un système de propulsion liquide hypothèses sont publiées sur sa nature. impliquant des isotopes18. Les données officielles sur l’accident sont peu nom- Parallèlement, la ville de Severodvinsk a fait état sur breuses et parfois contradictoires. Vers 6h du matin, son site internet d’une augmentation temporaire de la une explosion aurait eu lieu, sur une plate-forme off- radioactivité mesurée, avec un niveau de radiation shore, près du site de Nyonoksa. Le ministère de la ayant atteint 2,0 µSv/h pendant trente minutes (soit Défense a initialement indiqué que deux personnels trois fois plus que la limite réglementaire). L’agence étaient décédés et sept autres blessés suite à l’explo- météorologique Rosgidromet a confirmé avoir enre- sion d’un moteur à combustible liquide17. Deux jours Photographie satellite du site de l’accident, 8 août 2019. Crédits : MIIS/ Planet Labs 17 « Radiation Spike Reported After Deadly Rocket-Engine 18 Rosatom Department of Communications Statement, Com- Blast In Russia », RFERL, 8 août 2019. munications Department of Rosatom, 10 août 2019. FONDATION pour la RECHERCHE STRATÉGIQUE 6 Observatoire de la dissuasion gistré des niveaux de radiation bien supérieurs aux ni- Leur deuxième argument est lié à la présence en veaux naturels19. Les
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