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Globalization, Armed Conflicts and Security Edited by Alessandro Gobbicchi © Rubbettino Military Centre for Strategic Studies - Rome © Rubbettino Globalization, Armed Conflicts and Security edited by Alessandro Gobbicchi Prefazione di Carlo Jean Rubbettino © Rubbettino Copyright © by CeMiSS Centro Militare di Studi Strategici Piazza della Rovere, 83 - 00165 Roma (RM) e-mail: [email protected] © 2004 - Rubbettino Editore 88049 Soveria Mannelli - Viale Rosario Rubbettino, 10 -Tel. (0968) 662034 www.rubbettino.it © Rubbettino Contents Acknowledgements p. 7 Introduction. War and Security in a Globalized World, 9 Alessandro Gobbicchi Part one Globalization, Governance, World Disorder 1. Constitutional Instability: a World-System Issue, Vittorio Olgiati 25 2. Governance and Nation-State, Andrea Borghini 47 3. Governing the Legitimate Use of Force: Change, Inertia and Dilemmas of “Global Governance”, Anna Leander 57 4. American Foreign Policy and Global Governance, Luca Belloc- chio 83 Part two Armed Conflicts 5. Asymmetrical Warfare or Asymmetrical Society? The Changing Form of War and the Collapse of International Society, Alessan- dro Colombo 111 6. Mythology and Dynamics of Ethnic and Religious Factors in the New Generation of Conflicts, Vitaly Naumkin 129 7. The Problem of Solving Ethnopolitical Conflicts, Tarja Väyrynen 141 8. Future Wars. Characteristics, Forms of Reaction and Strategic Re- quirements, Sven Bernhard Gareis 153 5 © Rubbettino 9. State and Conflicts in Africa: Lesson from the Congo War (1996-2003), Giovanni M. Carbone 171 Part three Security 10. On the Notion of Insecurity, Mario Aldo Toscano 187 11. Sociological Reflections on World Disorder and New Concepts of Security, Maria Luisa Maniscalco 193 12. The Ethic of Securitization, J. Peter Burgess 209 13. Fighting Terrorism – A Narrow Path Between Saving Security and Losing Liberty, Berthold Meyer 227 14. The Global War on Terrorism is a Real War, Ian Roxborough 239 15. Human Security, D.J. Winslow 255 About the Authors 279 6 © Rubbettino Acknowledgements During my three years of work at the Military Centre for Strategic Stud- ies, I have had the opportunity to meet with professors and scholars from many different countries and to exchange opinions and perspectives about many aspects of the political, economic and social changes that are taking place in the world. The ideas gained from these encounters and from my own studies convinced me that the links between such changes and the violence which accompanies them ever more frequently still had to be examined. The same was true for the consequences of these links on the definition of appro- priate security policies. These considerations and the desire to discuss them led me to organize an international conference on “Globalization, Uncertain- ty, New Conflicts” that took place in Roma at the Centro Alti Studi della Dife- sa at the end of May 2003. I want to thank Brig. Gen. Carlo Finizio, Director of the Military Centre for Strategic Studies, for the support he gave me in organizing the conference, the results of which are presented in this book. 7 © Rubbettino © Rubbettino Introduction War and Security in the Globalized World Alessandro Gobbicchi The Dark Side of the Moon Understanding the multifaceted characteristics of globalization is funda- mental to understanding the nature of contemporary wars. In the same way, the definition of a concept of security must be clearly informed by the context in which such security is to be pursued, as well as the factors unleashing and sustaining armed conflicts. The globalization literature is rich in reference to wars. Whether the study be focused on its economic, political or sociological aspects, war recurs as a factor with which we must reckon, both as a product of globalization (direct in some cases, indirect in others) and as a phenomenon which proliferates in the conditions created by globalization. 1. Some of those who study the economic aspects of globalization see armed conflicts as proof of negative political and social consequences follow- ing unsuccessful economic growth. Others see it as the challenge to pursue a more uniform distribution of globalization’s benefits. The data demonstrate that a country reaps important benefits from participation in the internation- al economy and that the risk of war between “successful developers” is 10 times less than between “marginalized countries”. It is nevertheless true that the number of marginalized countries is increasing and that, outside the West, the countries benefiting from their participation in the international system are restricted to East Asia and Latin America. Given that conflict impacts a country’s very chances of development, the prospect of falling into “the con- flict trap” becomes ever more tangible for an increasing number of countries. Though globalization is associated with economic development, which is associated in turn with the decreased likelihood of civil war, it is also true that often the distinctly non-economic aspects of development are what trigger conflicts. Frequent and consistent shocks in the movement of capital affect 9 © Rubbettino power relations and traditional hierarchies; they lead to the appearance of new actors on the scene who pursue their own interests according to differentiat- ed and often conflictual strategies. Experience demonstrates that social divi- sions are often generated by factions’ wills to exploit new opportunities for wealth; where the state is weak, they seek power through such wealth. Thus policies for promoting growth must be accompanied by policies aimed at “protecting” society and preventing the breakdown of political institutions. Such policies might pursue the elimination of corruption, political and legisla- tive reforms, limiting countries’ exposure to price shocks and reducing the risks of ethnic dominance. When viewed as the final stage of deteriorating relations between collectiv- ities caused by economic instability, armed conflicts have become the litmus test of the validity of economic policies implemented by global institutions like the International Monetary Fund or World Bank, whose job it is to provide funds to needy countries to enable an economic recovery, and thereby promote political stability. This sensitivity to political stability has been heightened in recent times, so much that the term “development”, which is held out as a panacea for an en- dangered society, is now always associated with “social stability”. We now know that programs of uncontrolled commercial liberalization, industrial privatization and deregulated foreign capital investment ought to be evaluated in light of their possible effect on the social contract. This contract is grounded in the principle of equity and binds citizens to their government. To rupture the social contract is to cause more or less violent disturbances and disorder. The problem of equity is particularly acute. It has been proven that, with- in certain limits, it isn’t poverty which causes the discontent which generates disturbances, but the perception of inequality and injustice in the distribution of wealth and opportunities. It is no accident that more and more people, while granting that globalization has improved life conditions for millions of people, still emphasize that this has been accompanied by an increased gap between rich and poor, both at the global level, and, in some cases, in individ- ual countries. Such increased inequality has to be taken seriously by those in- terested in conflict prevention. In this perspective, some economists’ genuine enthusiasm for an average annual growth in the global income of 2.5% is countered by the more general fears triggered by an increase of nearly 100 mil- lion people in poverty, and the perception of a direct relationship between the different levels of economic well-being and ethnic identity. Aware of the relationships between unfavorable economic conditions and armed conflicts, and the spiral of interdependence that binds them, global in- stitutions seek to carry out their functions with a view to maintaining peace 10 © Rubbettino and stability. Thus the World Bank commissions studies to determine the so- cial, political and economic conditions that systematically increase the inci- dence of civil war, in order to shape effective development policies for reduc- ing global conflict. It thus emerges that economic decline, dependency on primary commod- ity exports, low per capita income and an unequal distribution of wealth place a country at high risk for civil war. These elements respond to dynamics whose dimensions usually are the fruit of multiple and articulated interests and go beyond the single state possibility of regulation. In zones characterized by low and declining incomes and an unequal distribution of wealth, entrepreneurs of violence from all over the world are able to cheaply recruit great masses of men. The presence of natural resources, moreover, can contribute to instabil- ity inasmuch as they may provoke possessive desires and may also be a source of material support for rebel organizations or separatist movements. The problem arises when these kinds of economic conditions are associated with incompetent, non-democratic and ultimately weak states, which are unable to oppose those who would wield power through violence. 2. In the political sphere, the connection between globalization and war passes for international disorder, and this is in turn associated with the frag- mentation of power. The loss of State power in the face of advancing nation- al and transnational organizations
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