The Militarization of the European Union
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Forex Medium-Term Outlook(Jan, 2019)
Forex Medium-Term Outlook 26 December 2018 Mizuho Bank, Ltd. Forex Department 【Contents】 Overview of Outlook ・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・P. 2 USD/JPY Outlook –Time for a Change in the Premise 2019 – Vital Points for Global Economy; The Year in Which the True Price of Rate Hikes Emerges ・・・・ ・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・ ・ P. 3 2019 – Vital Points for Forex Rates; Time for a Change in the Premise・・・・・・・・・・・P. 5 U.S. Monetary Policies Now and Going Forward – The First Step into a New Phase・・・・・P. 6 Overview of Tail Risks – Potentials for the Unexpected in Japan, the United States, and Europe・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・ P. 1 0 EUR Outlook – ‒ “Increasing Caution” and “Continuing Confidence” ECB Monetary Policies Now and Going Forward – APP Termination and Outlook Regarding Reinvestment・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・P. 1 4 Uncertain future Reflected in French “Yellow Vests” Riots – Issues the EU Should Worry About・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・P. 1 5 Ongoing Shift to a “Post-Merkel” Germany and EU – The EUR 3.0 Era・・・・・・・・・・P. 1 7 Medium-Term Forex Outlook 1 Mizuho Bank Ltd. Overview of Outlook USD/JPY clearly fell in December. In line with the concerns I have consistently expressed in this report, the prices of risky assets have been forced to undergo a correction in response to the increase in U.S. interest rates. The Fed had until recently remained indifferent to this asset price volatility, but it may finally no longer be able to ignore the fluctuations. This is evidenced by the fact that Committee members were forced in December to downgrade their dot plot projections for the entire forecasting period. Market predictions, however, are even more pessimistic than those suggested by the revised dot plot, with some even predicting the end of rate hikes altogether. -
The 2002 National Security Strategy: the Foundation Of
Old Dominion University ODU Digital Commons Graduate Program in International Studies Theses & Graduate Program in International Studies Dissertations Summer 2013 The 2002 aN tional Security Strategy: The Foundation of a Doctrine of Preemption, Prevention, or Anticipatory Action Troy Lorenzo Ewing Old Dominion University Follow this and additional works at: https://digitalcommons.odu.edu/gpis_etds Part of the American Politics Commons, Defense and Security Studies Commons, International Law Commons, Terrorism Studies Commons, and the United States History Commons Recommended Citation Ewing, Troy L.. "The 2002 aN tional Security Strategy: The oundF ation of a Doctrine of Preemption, Prevention, or Anticipatory Action" (2013). Doctor of Philosophy (PhD), dissertation, International Studies, Old Dominion University, DOI: 10.25777/ 8f8q-9g35 https://digitalcommons.odu.edu/gpis_etds/46 This Dissertation is brought to you for free and open access by the Graduate Program in International Studies at ODU Digital Commons. It has been accepted for inclusion in Graduate Program in International Studies Theses & Dissertations by an authorized administrator of ODU Digital Commons. For more information, please contact [email protected]. THE 2002 NATIONAL SECURITY STRATEGY: THE FOUNDATION OF A DOCTRINE OF PREEMPTION, PREVENTION, OR ANTICIPATORY ACTION by Troy Lorenzo Ewing B.A. May 1992, Rutgers University M.B.A. May 2001, Webster University M.S.S.I. May 2007, National Intelligence University A Dissertation Submitted to the Faculty of Old Dominion University in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY INTERNATIONAL STUDIES OLD DOMINION UNIVERSITY August 2013 ABSTRACT THE 2002 NATIONAL SECURITY STRATEGY: THE FOUNDATION OF A DOCTRINE OF PREEMPTION, PREVENTION, OR ANTICIPATORY ACTION Troy Lorenzo Ewing Old Dominion University, 2013 Director: Dr. -
Yellow Vests, Carbon Tax Aversion, and Biased Beliefs
YELLOW VESTS,CARBON TAX AVERSION, AND BIASED BELIEFS* Thomas Douenne and Adrien Fabre† Abstract This paper seeks to understand how beliefs endogenously form and determine attitudes towards policies. Using a new survey and National households’ survey data, we investigate the case of car- bon taxation in France in the context of the Yellow Vests movement that started against it. We find that French people would largely reject a Tax & Dividend policy, i.e. a carbon tax whose revenues are redistributed uniformly to all households. However, they also overestimate the negative impact of the scheme on their purchasing power, wrongly think it is regressive, and do not perceive it as environmentally effective. Using information about the scheme as instrument to identify robust causal effects, our econometric analysis shows that correcting these three biases would suffice to generate majority approval. Yet, we find that people’s beliefs are persistent and their revisions biased towards pessimism so that only a small minority can be convinced. Indeed, if overly pes- simistic beliefs cause tax rejection, they also result from it through motivated reasoning, which manifests what we define as “tax aversion”. JEL classification: D72; D91; H23; H31; Q58 Keywords: Climate Policy; Carbon tax; Bias; Beliefs; Preferences; Tax aversion *Acknowledgments: We are grateful to Mouez Fodha, Fanny Henriet and Katheline Schubert for their comments and their help to get funding. We also thank Béatrice Boulu-Reshef, Stefano Carattini, Nicolas Jacquemet, Mathias Lé, Linus Mattauch, Joseph Stiglitz, Thierry Verdier, seminar participants at the Paris School of Economics and an anonymous referee of the FAERE Working Paper series. -
Macron, the Yellow Vests and the National Debate. Playing for Time, Not Solving the Political Legitimacy Crisis
NO. 17 MARCH 2019 Introduction Macron, the Yellow Vests and the National Debate Playing for Time, Not Solving the Political Legitimacy Crisis Ronja Kempin and Paweł Tokarski France’s yellow vests (gilets jaunes) are heterogeneous, make contradictory demands, and refuse to give up. Since November 2018 they have been demonstrating for more purchasing power and greater democracy. Having made financial concessions, Presi- dent Emmanuel Macron is now playing for time. He has initiated a “grand national debate”, in which all citizens were called on to voice their opinions concerning future political issues. This debate is likely to help him win the European Parliament (EP) elections in May and facilitate splintering the yellow vests. To avert further protests that could paralyse the country, delegitimise his government and ensure that his presidency fails, Macron needs to improve the way he communicates his reform agenda. Merely playing for time will not make France reformable and governable for this president, any more than it did for his predecessors. The protests never end. Since 17 November are held by the rural lower-middle class, 2018, people wearing high-visibility yel- including craftsmen and women and shop- low vests have been taking to the streets keepers. They can barely earn a living from of France on Saturdays. The protests by their work and are afraid of sliding into the yellow vests, organised nationwide, were poverty. Politically, according the yellow initially directed against the higher tax on vests, they have no voice. They reject the fossil fuels planned by President Macron. support of the trade unions and parties of They quickly evolved into a list of 42 the political left, which previously chan- demands. -
Yellow Vests, Pessimistic Beliefs, and Carbon Tax Aversion
YELLOW VESTS,PESSIMISTIC BELIEFS, AND CARBON TAX AVERSION* Thomas Douenne and Adrien Fabre† Link to most recent version Abstract Using a representative survey, we find that after the Yellow Vests movement, French people would largely reject a Tax & Dividend policy, i.e. a carbon tax whose revenues are redistributed uni- formly to each adult. However, they overestimate their net monetary loss, wrongly think the policy is regressive, and do not perceive it as environmentally effective. We show that changing people’s beliefs about the tax incidence and effectiveness can largely increase support. Yet, beliefs change little following our informational treatments. Indeed, if overly pessimistic beliefs cause tax rejec- tion, they also result from it through motivated reasoning, which manifests what we define as “tax aversion”. JEL classification: D72; D91; H23; H31; Q58 Keywords: Climate Policy; Carbon tax; Beliefs; Preferences; Tax aversion *Acknowledgments: We are grateful to Mouez Fodha, Fanny Henriet and Katheline Schubert for their comments and their help to get funding. We also thank Stefano Carattini, Linus Mattauch, Joseph Stiglitz, Thierry Verdier, as well as seminar participants at the Paris School of Economics, Columbia University, University of Pennsylvenia, University of Amsterdam, University of Quebec at Montréal, KU Leuven, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Environmental Defense Fund, EIEE-CMCC (Milan), OECD, OFCE, and conference participants at FSR Climate Annual Conference (Florence), ADRES (Lyon), FAERE (Rennes). We are thankful to Christina Hobbs for the proof- reading. We are grateful to anonymous referees for their insightful comments and suggestions. We acknowledge financial support from the Cepremap, EUR PGSE (ANR-17-EURE-0001) ANR (ANR16-CE03-0011), and Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne economics doctoral school (ED 465). -
Moosejaw Market Expansion Into France
Bowling Green State University ScholarWorks@BGSU Honors Projects Honors College Spring 5-17-2019 Moosejaw Market Expansion into France Rachel Renou [email protected] Follow this and additional works at: https://scholarworks.bgsu.edu/honorsprojects Part of the Business Administration, Management, and Operations Commons, E-Commerce Commons, International Business Commons, and the Marketing Commons Repository Citation Renou, Rachel, "Moosejaw Market Expansion into France" (2019). Honors Projects. 439. https://scholarworks.bgsu.edu/honorsprojects/439 This work is brought to you for free and open access by the Honors College at ScholarWorks@BGSU. It has been accepted for inclusion in Honors Projects by an authorized administrator of ScholarWorks@BGSU. 1 Moosejaw Market Expansion into France Rachel Renou Honors Project Submitted to the Honors College at Bowling Green State University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for graduation with UNIVERSITY HONORS DATE Dr. Zhang Management Department; College of Business, Advisor Dr. Gremler Marketing Department; College of Business, Advisor 2 Table of Contents Executive Summary…………………………………………………………………………….....3 Introduction………………………………………………………………………………………..4 Background……………….…………………………………………………………………….....5 Country Analysis………………………………………………………………………...…….….8 Political Environment……………………………………………..………………..…..…8 Social/Cultural Environment………………………………………………………….....11 Industry/Business Analysis…………………………………………………………………..….16 Five Forces Analysis……………………………………………………………………….....….22 SWOT Analysis……………………………………………………………………………….....27 -
S Revolution! the Battleplan Against the NWO! by Thomas Eidsaa Last Edited 13.04.2020 a Compilation of Articles, Read Alongside Internet
1 2 The People`s Army`s Revolution! The battleplan against the NWO! By Thomas Eidsaa last edited 13.04.2020 A compilation of articles, read alongside internet. Exposing and defeating the black magic NWO! I wish you a happy revolution! Be careful! We are not fighting an armed conflict but an infowar. ¨Peace love anarchy!¨ PS! My Christian book series are national-conservative and religious conservative. This book is more liberal, dedicated to why we need a revolution and the few ways of actually achieving revolution. Cover and all writing by Thomas Eidsaa copyright 2019. No part in this publication may be used or transmitted in any way without the expressed written consent of the publisher, except for short excerpts for the use in reviews. 3 Other books by Thomas Eidsaa: The GRRRRR book-series, or The Great Romantic Revivalist`s Reformation Revolution Renaissance series, is a an eye-opening Christian series which detail all my research into Christianity, neo- charismatic theology, apologetics, ontological arguments, the problem of evil, eschatology, and conspiracy theories of great importance every Christian needs to understand. It is a work aimed at waking you up and expose the evil you never thought existed. What you don`t know can still kill you. It is a guide, and compendium of important topics relating to the radical, Christian faith in the dangerous, unpredictable 21st century death of Europe. I take the reader on an amazing journey – uniting 1st century Nazarene knowledge with 21st century science, theology and societal problems. I personally believe the knowledge therein will create peace on Earth. -
As Macron Prepares New Repressive Measures, Yellow Vests and Red Unions Strike Together
As Macron Prepares New Repressive Measures, Yellow Vests and Red Unions Strike Together On Tues, Feb. 5, as the Macron government pushed harsh repressive laws against demonstrators through the National Assembly, the Yellow Vests joined with France’s unions for the first time in a day-long, nation-wide “General Strike.” At the very moment when in Paris the lower house was voting to implement Macron’s proposed laws designed to suppress public demonstrations (a legal right protected in both the French Constitution and the U.N. Human Rights Declaration) tens of thousands of their constituents were out in the streets all over the country demonstrating and striking against Macron’s authoritarian, neo-liberal government. The demonstrators’ demands ranged from better salaries and retirement benefits, restoration of public services, equitable tax codes, an end to police brutality, and banning the use of “flash-balls” on demonstrators, to Macron’s resignation and the instauration of participatory democracy. Deaf to the angry people’s legitimate grievances, unwilling to deal with them, Macron has given himself no other choice than to legislate new repressive legal restrictions to suppress their continued free expression. This resort to open repression can only serve to discredit the government’s handling of a crisis largely of its own making, treating a spontaneous social movement among the 99% as if it were a terrorist or fascist conspiracy. The unpopular President’s repressive tactics will inevitably backfire on him. The French are extremely jealous of their liberties, and Macron’s monarchical arrogance can only remind them of how their ancestors dealt with Louis XVI. -
H-Diplo/ISSF Roundtable, Vol. 2, No. 3 (2011)
H-Diplo | ISSF Roundtable, Volume II, No. 3 (2011) A production of H-Diplo with the journals Security Studies, International Security, Journal of Strategic Studies, and the International Studies Association’s Security Studies Section (ISSS). http://www.h-net.org/~diplo/ISSF | http://www.issforum.org Diane Labrosse and Thomas Maddux, H-Diplo/ISSF Editors George Fujii, H-Diplo/ISSF Web and Production Editor Commissioned by Thomas Maddux Richard Immerman. Empire for Liberty: A History of American Imperialism from Benjamin Franklin to Paul Wolfowitz. Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2010. ISBN: 978-0-691- 12762-0 (cloth, $24.95). Published by H-Diplo/ISSF on 14 February 2011 Stable URL: http://www.h-net.org/~diplo/ISSF/PDF/ISSF-Roundtable-2-3.pdf Contents Introduction by Howard Jones, University of Alabama ............................................................ 2 Review by Jeffrey A. Engel, Texas A&M University .................................................................. 7 Review by Joan Hoff, Montana State University, Bozeman ................................................... 12 Review by William Weeks, University of San Diego ............................................................... 19 Review by Tom Zeiler, University of Colorado ........................................................................ 25 Author’s Response by Richard H. Immerman, Temple University ......................................... 28 Copyright © 2011-2012 H-Net: Humanities and Social Sciences Online H-Net permits the redistribution and reprinting -
Fuelling Dissent
editorial Fuelling dissent As the yellow vests protests in France continue despite rollback of planned fuel taxes, energy science and policy will have to rethink how they look at social unrest. any countries with ambitious grass roots movement and adds to the specific levels of continuous policy support. nationally determined complexity of fuel tax implementation. In the case of the yellow vests movement Mcontributions for reducing It would also be imprudent to dismiss the though, we have a country that appeared greenhouse gas emissions identify fuel yellow vests protests and their outcome as a to be heading in one direction in terms of taxation both as a tool for curbing fossil fuel one-off event. Just by virtue of the reversal energy and climate policies suddenly being usage and for financing renewable energy of government policy it achieved, the made to alter course through an event whose initiatives. While a number of studies have movement could encourage opponents of timing could not have been predicted even identified disproportionate distributional climate action elsewhere to instigate protests if it could be anticipated. The Fukushima impacts of these taxes on various segments that could end up delegitimizing socially disaster similarly led to extensive policy of society1, there has been continuing costly energy and environment policies, even reversals in Germany and other European support for such measures in Western if there is majority support for them. In any nations in a way that could not have been European countries with high levels of case, the yellow vests movement will likely predicted4. Scenario modelling could environmental awareness and ambitious make governments more wary of pursuing have envisioned pathways with or without national climate targets. -
Globalization, Armed Conflicts and Security Edited by Alessandro Gobbicchi
© Rubbettino Military Centre for Strategic Studies - Rome © Rubbettino Globalization, Armed Conflicts and Security edited by Alessandro Gobbicchi Prefazione di Carlo Jean Rubbettino © Rubbettino Copyright © by CeMiSS Centro Militare di Studi Strategici Piazza della Rovere, 83 - 00165 Roma (RM) e-mail: [email protected] © 2004 - Rubbettino Editore 88049 Soveria Mannelli - Viale Rosario Rubbettino, 10 -Tel. (0968) 662034 www.rubbettino.it © Rubbettino Contents Acknowledgements p. 7 Introduction. War and Security in a Globalized World, 9 Alessandro Gobbicchi Part one Globalization, Governance, World Disorder 1. Constitutional Instability: a World-System Issue, Vittorio Olgiati 25 2. Governance and Nation-State, Andrea Borghini 47 3. Governing the Legitimate Use of Force: Change, Inertia and Dilemmas of “Global Governance”, Anna Leander 57 4. American Foreign Policy and Global Governance, Luca Belloc- chio 83 Part two Armed Conflicts 5. Asymmetrical Warfare or Asymmetrical Society? The Changing Form of War and the Collapse of International Society, Alessan- dro Colombo 111 6. Mythology and Dynamics of Ethnic and Religious Factors in the New Generation of Conflicts, Vitaly Naumkin 129 7. The Problem of Solving Ethnopolitical Conflicts, Tarja Väyrynen 141 8. Future Wars. Characteristics, Forms of Reaction and Strategic Re- quirements, Sven Bernhard Gareis 153 5 © Rubbettino 9. State and Conflicts in Africa: Lesson from the Congo War (1996-2003), Giovanni M. Carbone 171 Part three Security 10. On the Notion of Insecurity, Mario Aldo Toscano 187 11. Sociological Reflections on World Disorder and New Concepts of Security, Maria Luisa Maniscalco 193 12. The Ethic of Securitization, J. Peter Burgess 209 13. Fighting Terrorism – A Narrow Path Between Saving Security and Losing Liberty, Berthold Meyer 227 14. -
Austria͛s Internaional Posiion After the End Of
ƵƐƚƌŝĂ͛Ɛ/ŶƚĞƌŶĂƟŽŶĂůWŽƐŝƟŽŶ ĂŌĞƌƚŚĞŶĚŽĨƚŚĞŽůĚtĂƌ Günter Bischof, Ferdinand Karlhofer (Eds.) CONTEMPORARY AUSTRIAN STUDIES | VOLUME 22 UNO PRESS innsbruck university press Copyright © 2013 by University of New Orleans Press, New Orleans, Louisiana, USA All rights reserved under International and Pan-American Copyright Conventions. No part of this book may be reproduced or transmitted in any form, or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopy, recording, or any information storage nd retrieval system, without prior permission in writing from the publisher. All inquiries should be addressed to UNO Press, University of New Orleans, LA 138, 2000 Lakeshore Drive. New Orleans, LA, 70119, USA. www.unopress.org. Printed in the United States of America Design by Lauren Capone Cover photo credit: Hopi Media Published in the United States by Published and distributed in Europe University of New Orleans Press: by Innsbruck University Press ISBN: 9781608011162 ISBN: 9783902936011 UNO PRESS Contemporary Austrian Studies Sponsored by the University of New Orleans and Universität Innsbruck Editors Günter Bischof, CenterAustria, University of New Orleans Ferdinand Karlhofer, Universität Innsbruck Assistant Editor Production and Copy Editor Dominik Hofmann-Wellenhof Lauren Capone University of New Orleans Executive Editors Christina Antenhofer, Universität Innsbruck Kevin Graves, University of New Orleans Advisory Board Siegfried Beer Sándor Kurtán Universität Graz Corvinus University Budapest Peter Berger Günther Pallaver Wirtschaftsuniversität