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Youth Crime Drop Youth DECEMBER 2000 URBAN INSTITUTE Justice Policy Center

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Youth Crime Drop Youth DECEMBER 2000 URBAN INSTITUTE Justice Policy Center R E P O R T December 2000 URBAN INSTITUTE Justice Policy Center Jeffrey A. Butts research for safer communities Youth Crime Drop DECEMBER 2000 URBAN INSTITUTE Justice Policy Center Youth Crime Drop Summary Researchers debate why violent crime in the United States suddenly dropped in the 1990s, but one fact all researchers endorse is that the overall decline in violent crime probably had much to do with falling rates of youth crime. This brief report from the Justice Policy Center examines the recent crime drop and asks how much of the decrease seen between 1995 and 1999 can be attributed to juveniles (under age 18) and older youth (ages 18 to 24). Using the most recent data from the FBI’s Uniform Crime Reports, the analysis demonstrates that not only did America’s violent crime drop continue through 1999, falling youth crime accounted for most of the overall decline. The Author Jeffrey A. Butts (Ph.D., University of Michigan) is a senior research associate with the Urban Institute’s Justice Policy Center, where he is involved in research and evaluation projects on Published by policies and programs for youthful offenders, including federally funded evaluations of teen Justice Policy Center courts and juvenile drug courts. Prior to joining the Urban Institute in 1997, he was a senior URBAN INSTITUTE research associate at the National Center for Juvenile Justice. 2100 M Street, N.W. Washington, DC 20037 The Urban Institute Copyright Ó 2000 The Urban Institute is a nonprofit policy research organization established in Washington, D.C., in 1968. The Institute's goals are to sharpen thinking about society's problems and efforts to solve them, improve government decisions and their implementation, and increase citizens' Any opinions expressed are awareness about important public choices. those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Urban Institute, Acknowledgments its board, or sponsors. The methods used in this report to adjust FBI sample-based data and create national arrest estimates were developed by Dr. Howard Snyder of the National Center for Juvenile Justice. The director of the The author is grateful to the Justice Policy Center colleagues who provided comments and Justice Policy Center reviews of this report: Adele Harrell, Jeremy Travis, Calvin Johnson, and David Williams. is Dr. Adele Harrell. Youth Crime Drop 2 Introduction fter a decade of growth, the incidence of violent crime in America suddenly began to drop in the mid-1990s.1 Criminologists propose various reasons for the sudden turnaround in violent Acrime. Explanations include a strong economy, changing demographics, changes in the market for illegal drugs and the use of firearms, expanded imprisonment, policing innovations, and a growing cultural intolerance for violent behavior (see Blumstein and Wallman, 2000). Regardless of which explanation one favors, it is clear that previous increases as well as recent decreases in violent crime were disproportionately generated by the nation’s youth. Criminal behavior has always been more prevalent among young people. Thus, studies of changing crime patterns need to distinguish juvenile crime and youth crime from crime by adults.2 This report examines the most recent FBI data about police arrests and answers two important questions: 1) Did the crime drop that began in the mid-1990s continue through 1999? and, 2) How much of the drop in violent crime can be attributed to juveniles and youth under age 25? In many large cities, fewer violent crimes were reported in 1999 than in 1995 Violent Violent Index crimes reported per 100,000 inhabitants 8 of 10 Largest Crimes of the largest Metropolitan Statistical Areas in the U.S. MSAs in U.S. in 1999 Boston 16,024 645 Dallas 22,284 Boston 468 Detroit 34,275 Dallas 819 Houston 29,985 705 L.A.-Long Beach 86,220 881 New York City 82,602 Detroit 762 Philadelphia 33,528 San Francisco 9,330 856 Houston 752 Note: 2 of the 10 largest Metro- 1,423 politan Statistical Areas (MSA) L.A.-Long Beach 922 did not report sufficient data on “reported crimes” to the FBI in 1,393 1995 or 1999 or both — Chicago New York City 946 and Washington, DC-Baltimore. Philadelphia 694* 678 1995 884 San Francisco 546 1999 * Data from 1994. Source: Urban Institute analysis of data from Federal Bureau of Investigation. Crime in the United States, annual. Washington, DC: FBI, U.S. Department of Justice. Violent Index crimes include murder and non-negligent manslaughter, forcible rape, robbery, and aggravated assault. ________________________ 1. The year thought to be the beginning of the crime decline varies depending on which data elements are used to measure violent crime. This report defines the peak year of violent crime in the United States as 1995, when the national number of arrests for Violent Crime Index offenses reached a high point of nearly 800,000 arrests in one year. By 1999, total violent crime arrests had fallen to 644,770. 2. The term “juvenile” is used throughout this report to describe all offenders under age 18 although this is not the legal definition of the term. Some states extend the legal status of “juvenile” only through age 15 (CT, NC, and NY). Others extend it only through age 16 (GA, IL, LA, MA, MI, MO, NH, SC, TX, and WI). Law enforcement data usually include only the age of offenders and not their legal status. Youth Crime Drop 3 Number of Arrests This report focuses on data about arrests. It would be preferable to Juvenile arrests declined 9% between 1995 and analyze crimes reported to police 1999, with larger decreases in violent offenses rather than arrests made by National estimate of Change: police, but national information juvenile arrests, 1999 1995 - 99 about reported crimes is not All Offenses 2,468,800 -9% available by different age Violent Crime Index offenses 103,900 -23 categories. Many reported crimes Murder/non-negligent manslaughter 1,400 -56 are never resolved by an arrest. Forcible rape 5,000 -11 Thus, the age of the offender is Robbery 28,000 -39 unknown. Still, examining the age Aggravated assault 69,600 -13 profile of those arrested can Index property 541,500 -24 reveal much about the relative contribution of young people to Burglary 101,000 -23 crime patterns. Larceny-theft 380,500 -23 Motor vehicle theft 50,800 -35 In 1999, U.S. law enforcement Arson 9,200 -19 agencies made an estimated 14 Selected other offenses million arrests. Of these, 17 Other assaults 237,300 2 percent involved juveniles under Weapons 42,500 -27 age 18. Another 28 percent Drug abuse violations 198,400 1 involved youth between the ages Driving under the influence 23,000 36 of 18 and 24. Liquor laws 165,700 31 The number of arrests involving Disorderly conduct 176,200 -3 juveniles in 1999, 2.5 million, Curfew / loitering 170,000 9 was 9 percent lower than the Runaways 150,700 -28 number of arrests in 1995. Source: Urban Institute analysis of data from Federal Bureau of Investigation. Crime Arrests for many of the most in the United States, annual. Washington, DC: FBI, U.S. Department of Justice. serious offenses fell substantially between 1995 and 1999. During this time period arrests for murder Murder and robbery arrests declined more among dropped 56 percent among juveniles than among older youth and adults juveniles, robbery arrests were 39 Percent change in arrests for percent lower, burglary arrests selected offenses, 1995-1999 fell 23 percent, and juvenile Violent Index Aggravated Weapons arrests for motor vehicle theft Offenses Murder Robbery Assault Offenses were down 35 percent. -11% The small size of the total decline -13% -14% -16% -17% in juvenile arrests (-9 percent) -21% -23% -25% -29% -27% -27% was largely due to the influence of -32% -33% growing arrests in some of the -39% less serious offenses. For example, arrests for driving under -56% the influence were up 36 percent, Under Age 18 Ages 18-24 Over Age 24 liquor law violations grew 31 percent, and arrests for curfew Source: Urban Institute analysis of data from Federal Bureau of Investigation. Crime violations increased 9 percent. in the United States, annual. Washington, DC: FBI, U.S. Department of Justice. Youth Crime Drop 4 Arrest Rates Studies of changes in juvenile crime should always consider Violent crime arrest rates fell among all ages from the possibility that fluctuations 1995 to 1999 yet remained above 1980 levels in the juvenile population may Violent Crime Arrests be responsible for trends seen in per 100,000 Population the number of arrests reported 1980 1995 1999 900 by law enforcement. 800 This was not the case during the 700 recent crime drop. Even 600 controlling for changes in the 500 population, the rate of decline in 400 juvenile arrests outpaced that of 300 200 other age groups. 100 For every 100,000 youth age 10 0 to 17 in the U.S. population Under 18 18-24 25-29 30-49 50-64 during 1999, there were more Age at Arrest than 300 juvenile arrests for one Murder Arrests of the four Violent Crime Index per 100,000 Population 1980 1995 1999 offenses (i.e., murder, forcible 40 rape, aggravated assault, and rob- 35 bery). 30 The violent crime arrest rate fell 25 among all age groups between 20 1995 and 1999. The juvenile 15 arrest rate for Violent Crime 10 Index offenses in 1999 was 5 about two-thirds the rate of 0 1995. The rate in 1999, Under 18 18-24 25-29 30-49 50-64 however, was still 10 percent Age at Arrest higher than the rate of 1980.
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