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Five Tests for a Theory of the Crime Drop Graham Farrell Farrell Crime Science 2013, 2:5 http://www.crimesciencejournal.com/content/2/1/5 RESEARCH Open Access Five tests for a theory of the crime drop Graham Farrell Abstract Many studies have sought to explain the major crime declines experienced in most advanced countries. Key hypotheses relate to: lead poisoning; abortion legalization; drug markets; demographics; policing numbers and strategies; imprisonment; strong economies; the death penalty; gun control; gun concealment; immigration; consumer confidence; the civilizing process, and; improved security. This paper outlines five tests that a hypothesis should pass to be considered further. It finds that fourteen of the fifteen hypotheses fail two or more tests. The security hypothesis appears to pass the tests, and thereby pave the way for further research. Keywords: Crime drop; Crime decline; Crime fall Background tempered by some analysis of the variation (Aebi and Most advanced countries have experienced a major de- Lande 2012), and the suggestion that Switzerland has cline in street crime during the last two decades, but not (Killias and Lanfranconi 2012). While recognising with some variation in the extent, timing, and crimes in- variation between and within countries, Tseloni et al. volved. This ‘crime drop’ was heralded in the United (2010) suggest the crime drop is more widespread than States where total violent crime fell over seventy percent advanced countries and could perhaps be labeled as between 1993 and 2011 (Truman and Planty 2012). global. Knepper (2012) reviews the evidence from both Some property crimes in the US, particularly burglary sides and concludes there is a significant and wide- and theft, have been falling since the early 1970s spread international crime drop with some variation in according to the National Crime Victimization Survey. its nature. Also in the mid-1990s, the UK began to experience There have been various efforts to try to explain the dramatic declines across a wide range of property, per- crime drop over the last two decades. Fifteen key hy- sonal and violent crimes, many falling by half or more potheses from the academic literature are summarized (Office of National Statistics 2013). The sharp drops in in Table 1. This includes twelve identified in the reviews Canada’s homicide and other crime has generally been of Levitt (2004) and Blumstein and Rosenfeld (2008), remarkably similar to that in the US (Ouimet 2002a), and readers are referred to those studies for add- while New Zealand experienced rather similar declines itional details. Three hypotheses are included that in property crime (burglary, motor vehicle theft, and have gained ground since those reviews, and they other theft) but not all personal crimes (Mayhew 2012). are referenced further herein. Since crime drop re- In this context, the crime drop in Australia seems de- search has expanded in recent years, it is possible layed, beginning around 2001 where after motor ve- that this is not an exhaustive list of hypotheses. hicle theft led steep falls in burglary, theft and robbery However, it should be possible to apply the present but not some personal crimes (Mayhew 2012). There is study’s approach to other hypotheses. considerable evidence, from the International Crime This study sets out five tests that, it is proposed, a Victims Survey in particular, that most European crime drop hypothesis must pass to be considered countries have experienced significant crime drops worthy of further scrutiny. The tests are proposed as ne- (van Dijk et al. 2008, van Dijk 2008, van Dijk et al. 2012), cessary but not sufficient criteria to identify a viable the- ory of the crime drop. Correspondence: [email protected] Institute for Canadian Urban Research Studies, Simon Fraser University, 8888 University Drive, Burnaby, British Columbia V5A 1S6, Canada © 2013 Farrell; licensee Springer. This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. Farrell Crime Science 2013, 2:5 Page 2 of 8 http://www.crimesciencejournal.com/content/2/1/5 Table 1 Fifteen hypotheses Each test is described in more detail below as it is ap- Name Mechanism plied to the hypotheses shown in Table 1. Strong economy Wealthy offenders commit less crime Concealed weapons laws More defensive guns, less crime Results and discussion The preliminary evidence test Capital punishment More death penalty deterred crime To pass this test, a hypothesis should not have been com- Gun control laws Less guns, less crime prehensively falsified. The decision-making for this test Rising prison population Incapacitation and deterrence uses the reviews by Levitt (2004) and Blumstein and reduce crime Rosenfeld (2008) which are taken to be state-of-the-art Policing strategies Policing focused on crime problems works by leading scholars. For present purposes then, the (Compstat, POP) hypotheses taken to have been falsified are increased cap- More police More police detected and ital punishment, newly implemented gun control laws, or deterred crime laws allowing concealed weapons, and the strong economy, Legalization of abortion More abortion since 1973, less offenders by 1990s which were dismissed on the balance of evidence presented by Levitt (2004) as well as explicitly (or implicitly by exclu- Immigration Immigrants commit less crime, so crime fell as immigration rose sion) in the review of Blumstein and Rosenfeld (2008). Where either review determined that a hypothesis holds Consumer confidence Wealthy buy less from stolen goods markets some empirical validity, then it passes the first test. Waning crack market 2nd generation youth deterred The civilizing process hypothesis is given a bye for this by violence and prison for elders test as it is potentially credible despite the lack of Childhood lead Lead poisoning of children evidence-based research. This is not without reservation, made them adolescent criminals since as one of its proponents notes, it has problems Changing demographics Aging population means relatively less young offenders “not the least of which is whether such a theoretical Civilizing process Social institutions more legitimate perspective could be moved beyond the level of (1960s-80s = age of protest) speculation and be subjected to more rigorous Improved security Improved security, reduced crime empirical tests.” (Eisner 2008; 312) opportunities All additional hypotheses are taken to pass the test for Methods present purposes even though some are disputed and The five tests others claim only a minor role including demographics The proposed tests are: (generally found to account for around 10 to 15 percent – see Fox 2000) and immigration (Stowell et al. 2009 1. The preliminary evidence test claim it accounts for 6 percent of the crime drop). Are there reasonable empirical grounds to consider Blumstein and Rosenfeld are critical of the notion that the hypothesis, even if it is disputed? changing demographics induced the crime drop, observ- 2. The cross-national test ing that in the US, Can the hypothesis be applied to different countries (e.g. to Canada for hypotheses developed for the “during the sharp crime drop of the 1990s, age US)? composition changes were trending in the wrong 3. The prior crime increase test direction: the number of 18-year-olds in the U.S. Is the hypothesis compatible, or at least not in population was increasing while crime rates were contradiction, with the fact that crime was declining for other reasons.” previously generally increasing for several decades? (Blumstein and Rosenfeld 2008; 20). 4. The phone theft and e-crimes test Is the hypothesis compatible, or at least not in Nevertheless, for present purposes both demographics contradiction, with the fact that some crimes such and immigration are taken to retain some support and as phone theft and e-crimes were increasing while pass the test. Likewise, while Levitt (2004), Blumstein many crime types were decreasing? and Rosenfeld (2008) and others have largely discarded 5. The varying trajectories test the notion that changed policing strategies induced the Is the hypothesis compatible, or at least not in crime drop, it is held to pass the present test because it contradiction, with variation in the timing and continues to garner some support, particularly that of trajectory of crime falls both between countries and Zimring (2012) though that study does not seem to between crime types? identify a clear mechanism by which policing caused Farrell Crime Science 2013, 2:5 Page 3 of 8 http://www.crimesciencejournal.com/content/2/1/5 crime to fall in New York. Hence generous criteria are better policing strategies, the abortion hypothesis (see used here for this test, with the components summarized also Kahane et al. 2008 for a UK study finding no effect), in Table 2, and it serves primarily to separate the wheat and the waning crack market. The last three of these hy- from the chaff. potheses had passed the first test, but since other coun- tries did not have the same increase in police officers, The cross-national test the same change in abortion law, or similarly extensive Franklin Zimring’s conversion to cross-national com- crack markets, as the United States, they do not pass the parative research is worthy of recall: second. In relation to the immigration hypothesis, for present “Closer inspection showed that the timing of the purposes it is assumed that other countries had similar Canadian decline (1991–2000) fit perfectly with the patterns of immigration to the US. While this may prove timing of the declining in the United States (Zimring, an incorrect assumption it is conservative insofar as it 2006:Chapter 5). The extraordinary similarity of these allows the immigration hypothesis to pass the second trends in breadth, magnitude, and timing suggested test. Likewise, it is simplest for present purposes to as- that whatever was driving the decline in the United sume other countries had similarly increasing consumer States was also operating in Canada.
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