U. S. Department of Justice I Bureau of Justice Statistics I Lifetime Likelihood of Victimization by Herbert Koppel people's perception of the meaning of BJS Analyst March 1987 annual rates with respect to their own The Bureau of Justice Statistics lives. If the Earth revolved around the This report provides estimates of the National Crime Survey provides sun in 180 days, all of our annual crime likelihood that a person will become a annual victimization rates based rates would be halved, but we would not victim of crime during his or her life- on counts of the number of crimes be safer. time, or that a household will be vic- reported and not reported to timized during a 20-year period. This police in the United States. These Calculating lifetime victimization rates contrasts with the conventional use of a rates are based on interviews 1-year period in measuring crime and twice a year with about 101,000 For this report, lifetime likelihoods criminal victimization. Most promi- persons in approximately 49,000 of victimization were calculated from nently, the National Crime Survey nationally representative NCS annual victimization rates and life (NCS) surveys a sample of U.S. house- households. Those annual rates, tables published by the National Center holds and publishes annual victimization while of obvious utility to for Health statistics.% The probability rates, and the FBI's Uniform Crime policymakers, researchers, and that a person will be victimized at a Reports (UCR) provide annual rates of statisticians, do not convey to particular age basically depends upon crimes reported to the police. American citizens the full impact (a) the probability that the person is of crime on them nor do they still alive at that age and (b) the prob- Annual victimization rates answer a critical question for each ability that a person of that age will be individual: What is the possibility victimized. The lifetime likelihood of Annual victimization rates alone do that I will be a crime victim? This personal victimization is derived from not convey the full impact of crime as technical report is designed to the probabilities of being victimized at it affects people. No one would express shed light on this question. the various ages that constitute a life- his or her concern by saying, "I am ter- Steven R. Schlesinger time. A similar method is used for cal- ribly afraid of being mugged between Director culating the long-term likelihood of January and December of this year." crimes against households. People are worried about the possibility that at some tine in their lives they are rape victims annually, the lifetime Because of the assumptions involved will be robbed or raped or assaulted, or chances of suffering a rape are much in the calculations and because the data their homes will be burglarized. greater. derive from a sample survey, the num- bers presented in this report are Annual rates can provide a false Certainly, annual rates are useful. estimates only; they should be inter- sense of security by masking the real A 1-year period is probably optimum preted only as indications of approxi- impact of crime. Upon hearing that the for researchers, statisticians, and plan- mate magnitude, not as exact mea- homicide rate is about 8 to 10 per ners. It encompasses exactly one cycle sures. Essentially they are calculated 100,000 population, one feels safe; of seasonal variation. It is long enough values of lifetime risk rather than des- after all, 1 chance in 10,000 is not very to smooth out the impact of extraordi- criptions of what has been observed. frightening. Actually, however, at nary events (such as a mass murder in a recent homicide rates about 1 of every small city) and to allow time for col- For the purposes of this report, a 133 Americans will become a murder lecting and analyzing data. On the ulifetime'f begins at age 12. This is dic- victim; for black males the propprtion other hand, a 1-year period is short tated by the data available from the is estimated to be 1 of every 30. enough to show changes and trends in NCS, which does not cover persons Similarly, while 16 out of 10,000 women crime rates. The problem lies with younger than 12 years old. Also, "series" victimizations, those repre- no feasible alternative to assuming con- in table 1. Alternatively, the estimate senting three or more similar incidents stant values. can be restricted to the future, by about which the victim could not pro- taking into account only those victimi- vide detail on each event separately, The lifetime likelihood of victirniza- zations that will be incurred in the have been excluded. If series victimi- tion can be interpreted as an estimate remainder of the person's lifetime, zations were included in the calcula- of a person's entire lifetime experience, starting at his or her current age. This - tions as representing one crime inci- starting in years prior to 1975-84 and eliminates errors due to past changes in dent, the total number of annual violent continuing into the future until the per- annual rates. Estimates using the victimizations would increase by ap- son's death. Such an estimate is subject latter option are presented in table 2; proximately 8%. The exclusion of to two sources of error that result from the values in table 1 constitute such series victimizations, then, results in an assuming constant annual rates: (1) the estimates for persons whose current underestimation to some degree of the probable overestimation of victirniza- age is 12. actual probabilities of victimization, tion rates in past years, and (2) the especially with regard to multiple vic- uncertainty regarding future annual timizations. rates. Estimates of this type are shown Assumption of constant annual rates i Table 1. Lifetime likelihood of victimization The estimates of lifetime likelihood Percent of persons who will be victimized by crime starting at 12 years of age of victimization are derived under the Tnt-1 .".UA assumption that, throughout their life- One or more Number of victimizations times, people in the U.S. have incurred, victimizations One Two Three or more and will continue to incur, criminal victimization at the same annual rates Violent crimes, total* Total population as were observed in the years 1975 Male through 1984. Calculations are based Female upon the average annual victimization White rates for 1975-84 (except that data for Male rape are for 1973-82). Annual victimi- Female zation rates for the population, and for Black any group within the population, are Male assumed to remain constant at the Female average levels recorded for those Violent crimes, completed* years. For example, it is assumed that Total population Male the rate at which white females of age Female 34 become victims of assault was the same in the past and will be the same in White the future as it was in 1975-84. To the Black extent that annual rates were different Rape in the past or may change in the future, Total female White the estimates of lifetime victimization Black are inaccurate. Robbery Total population Of course victimization rates actu- Male ally vary from year to year. Victimiza- Female tion data are not available for years White before the mid-1970s (when the NCS Black was started), but crime rates as repor- Assault ted by UCR indicate that annual vic- Total population timization rates probably were lower Male then than in the period 1975-84. The Female UCR data, however, are not suitable White for estimating lifetime victimization Black because they include only crimes repor- Robbery or asseult ted to the police, and because there is resulting in injury no information about the age, sex, or Total population race of the victims. Personal theft Total population Since 1981, annual victimization Male rates reported by NCS have declined. Female If this trend were to continue, the White Male lifetime victimization probabilities Female would decrease. Black Male 99 5 10 84 Because there is very little usable Female 98 7 15 76 information about past variation in annual victimization rates, and because Note: Data are based on average victimization rates measured by the National Crime Survey for 1975-84, except for rape data, which are based on victimization rates for future changes are unpredictable in 1973-82. All crimes include attempts except where noted. See box on page 4 for crime definitions. both direction and magnitude, there is - Less than 0.5%. * Includes rape, robbery, and assault. Personal victimization rates Table 2. Lifetime likelihood of victimization, by age Based on 1975-84 annual victimiza- Percent of persons who will be victimized by crime starting at various ages tion rates, an estimated 5 out of 6 Total people will be victims of violent crimes One or more Number of victimizations (rape, robbery, and assault), either victimizations One Two Three or more completed or attempted, at least once Violent crimes* during their lives (table 1). (For the Current age precise definitions of the crimes dis- 12 years old , cussed in this report see the "Crime 20 definitions" box on page 4.) About half 30 40 the population will be victimized by 50 violent crime more than once. Males 60 are somewhat more likely to become 7 0 victims than females. Robbery or assault resulting in injury The greatest contrast is in multiple Current age 12 years old victimizations. It is estimated that 20 more than 2 in 5 black males will be 30 victimized by a violent crime three or 40 more times. This is almost double the 50 60 likelihood for black females and more 7 0 than triple the likelihood for white Personal theft females.