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University of Groningen Understanding Crowd Behaviour University of Groningen Understanding crowd behaviour Wijermans, Ferdinanda Elfrida Hubertina IMPORTANT NOTE: You are advised to consult the publisher's version (publisher's PDF) if you wish to cite from it. Please check the document version below. Document Version Publisher's PDF, also known as Version of record Publication date: 2011 Link to publication in University of Groningen/UMCG research database Citation for published version (APA): Wijermans, F. E. H. (2011). Understanding crowd behaviour: simulating situated individuals. University of Groningen, SOM research school. Copyright Other than for strictly personal use, it is not permitted to download or to forward/distribute the text or part of it without the consent of the author(s) and/or copyright holder(s), unless the work is under an open content license (like Creative Commons). The publication may also be distributed here under the terms of Article 25fa of the Dutch Copyright Act, indicated by the “Taverne” license. More information can be found on the University of Groningen website: https://www.rug.nl/library/open-access/self-archiving-pure/taverne- amendment. Take-down policy If you believe that this document breaches copyright please contact us providing details, and we will remove access to the work immediately and investigate your claim. Downloaded from the University of Groningen/UMCG research database (Pure): http://www.rug.nl/research/portal. For technical reasons the number of authors shown on this cover page is limited to 10 maximum. Download date: 30-09-2021 i i i i Understanding Crowd Behaviour Simulating Situated Individuals Nanda Wijermans i i i i i i i i The research reported in this thesis was funded by the Netherlands Ministry of Defence ("DO-AIO" fund contract no TM-12). The research was carried out at TNO Defence, Security and Safety, business unit Human Factors, Soesterberg, The Netherlands and the university of Groningen, Faculty of Economics and Business, Groningen, The Netherlands. Published by: University of Groningen, Groningen, The Netherlands Printed by: Ipskamp Drukkers B.V. ISBN: 978-90-367-4839-1 c 2011 Nanda Wijermans All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reprinted or utilized in any form or by any electronic, mechanical or other means, now known or hereafter invented, including photocopying and recording, or in any information storage or retrieval system, without written permission from the copyright owner. i i i i i i i i RIJKSUNIVERSITEIT GRONINGEN Understanding Crowd Behaviour Simulating Situated Individuals Proefschrift ter verkrijging van het doctoraat in de Economie en Bedrijfskunde aan de Rijksuniversiteit Groningen op gezag van de Rector Magnificus, dr. E. Sterken, in het openbaar te verdedigen op donderdag 21 april 2011 om 14.45 uur door Ferdinanda Elfrida Hubertina Wijermans geboren op 11 februari 1981 te ’s-Gravenhage i i i i i i i i Promotor: Prof. dr. R.J.J.M. Jorna Copromotores: Dr. W. Jager Dr. A.J. van Vliet Beoordelingscommissie: Prof. dr. R.J.F. van Haren Prof. dr. B.G. Silverman Prof. dr. K.G. Troitzsch i i i i i i i i Contents 1 Introduction 1 1.1 Why is understanding crowd behaviour important? ........... 5 1.1.1 Theoretical issues in understanding crowd behaviour .... 6 1.1.2 Methodological issues in understanding crowd behaviour .. 7 1.2 Understanding crowd behaviour ....................... 8 1.3 Thesis map ..................................... 10 2 Crowd Behaviour 11 2.1 Foundation of crowd behaviour ........................ 13 2.1.1 The 7 myths of the traditional foundation ............ 14 2.1.2 A Reflection on the myths ...................... 20 2.1.3 The modern foundation of crowd behaviour ........... 21 2.2 Existing models based on the modern foundation ............ 22 2.2.1 Flashpoint model ............................ 22 2.2.2 ESIM model ............................... 23 2.2.3 The initiation-escalation model of collective violence ..... 24 2.2.4 A reflection ................................ 25 2.3 Conclusion ..................................... 26 2.3.1 Multi-level approach .......................... 27 2.3.2 Individual as cognitive system .................... 28 3 CROSS-ATheoretical Crowd Model 31 3.1 The group level .................................. 32 3.1.1 The physical environment ....................... 32 3.1.2 The social environment ........................ 36 3.2 The individual level ............................... 38 3.3 The cognitive level ................................ 41 3.3.1 Architecture | physiology ....................... 43 3.3.2 Representations | memory ...................... 45 3.3.3 Processes | perception and behaviour selection ........ 49 3.4 Translating context into the cognitive level ................ 54 3.4.1 Physical environment and the cognitive level .......... 54 3.4.2 Social environment and the cognitive level ........... 56 3.5 Conclusion ..................................... 59 i i i i i i i i 4 Simulation to Understand Crowd Behaviour 61 4.1 The scientific cycle ............................... 63 4.2 How can simulation be used to understand crowd behaviour | the phases of the CROSS model ......................... 64 4.2.1 Phase 1 - from the real world to a theoretical model ..... 65 4.2.2 Phase 2 - from a theoretical to a computational model ... 66 4.2.3 Phase 3 - from a computational to an experimental model .74 4.2.4 Phase 4 - from experimental model to understanding the real world .................................... 75 4.3 Conclusion ..................................... 76 5 The CROSS Model-AComputational Crowd Model 77 5.1 Existing crowd models ............................. 77 5.2 Computational crowd model .......................... 81 5.2.1 Environment formalisation ...................... 81 5.2.2 Agent formalisation ........................... 83 5.3 Conclusion ..................................... 94 6 The Role of Density in Crowds 97 6.1 The role of density ................................ 98 6.2 The CROSS experiment model ........................ 100 6.2.1 The density experiment variables ................. 101 6.2.2 Model settings .............................. 103 6.3 Results ....................................... 111 6.3.1 Looking under the hood - the cognitive and individual levels 111 6.3.2 The group level ............................. 115 6.4 Discussion and conclusion ........................... 117 7 The role of leadership in crowds 119 7.1 The role of leadership ............................. 120 7.2 The CROSS experiment model ........................ 122 7.2.1 The leadership experiment variables ............... 122 7.2.2 Model settings .............................. 124 7.3 Results ....................................... 129 7.3.1 Looking under the hood - the cognitive and individual levels 129 7.3.2 The group level ............................. 132 7.4 Discussion and conclusion ........................... 134 8 Discussion and Conclusion 137 8.1 Answering the research question ...................... 140 8.2 The contribution of the CROSS model ................... 141 8.2.1 Crowd research ............................. 141 8.2.2 Cognitive sciences ........................... 142 8.2.3 Social sciences ............................. 142 8.2.4 Computer science/simulations .................... 143 8.2.5 Practice .................................. 144 8.3 Future ........................................ 144 i i i i i i i i Bibliography 149 Summary 163 Samenvatting 167 A word of thanks 171 i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i Chapter 1 Introduction [August 22 2009, Hoek van Holland] It is 18:00hrs, with the sound of music the beach party starts. Like previous years, this Saturday is the evening that the beach festival takes place. However, this evening will take a different turn. Visitors arrive at the site by public or private transport. The site is becoming increas- ingly more crowded and at 21.00 people are still arriving in large numbers1. Usually, different artists perform at a variety of stages; people cluster together in front of the stage while dancing, others queue up for the use of toilets and bars, or stand together while drinking a beer. This is a typical snapshot of people’s behaviours at a festival. Among the partying visitors another group can be identified: hard-core-football sup- porters. The ‘supporter’ group forms and grows. While the majority of festivalgoers enjoy their evening, some of them experience a change in atmosphere [between 21.00 and 22.30 hours]. Suddenly, agitation develops as some from the supporter group recognise some plain-clothes law enforcement officers (henceforth LEOs). Initially 2, and later 4 LEOs are surrounded, and subjected to verbal and physical abuse. The LEOs retreat, but are chased by an aggressive group of unknown composition. During this time the LEOs receive back-up, and now number 45 LEOs; the aggravating group has also increased in size, totalling between 200-300 people. The situation continues to be hostile; the group starts a countdown - some warning shots are fired by the LEOs, yet the hostilities continue. The LEOs retreat even further away from the site of the initial tensions by using an emergency exit into the dunes. Although the aggressors are initially halted by the fences, they tear these down and continue their pursuit of the LEOs. All kinds of objects are thrown at the LEOs: bottles filled with sand, planters and bikes, accompanied with continued verbal abuse. The situation escalates, and LEOs fire more warning shots, but again this fails to calm the situation. Some of the LEOs
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