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Semi-Annual Italian NPL Performance Report: 60% Of 28 July 2021 Structured Finance Semi-annual Italian NPL performance report: sector will under-perform into the medium term Semi-annual Italian NPL performance report: sector will under-perform into the medium term Italian NPL collection volumes look to be stabilising at 25% below average pre-pandemic levels. Performance has deteriorated slightly Analysts since Scope’s last report: 60% of transactions were performing below servicers’ original expectations in the second quarter of 2021, Rossella Ghidoni against 56% previously (based on Q3 2020 data1). The outlook is weak and risks remain to the downside. +39 02 94758 746 Indeed, weakness in the underlying market is reflected by the NPL Performance Index. The NPI, which tracks cumulative collections against [email protected] servicers’ original projections, stands at 94 and Scope expects it to remain below the baseline of 100 into the medium term. Meanwhile, notes are Paula Lichtensztein expected to amortise in six to eight years, based on the Scope NPL Dynamic Coverage Index (SCI), which tracks the speed of note amortisation. +49 30 27891 224 [email protected] The share of positions closed by servicers remains low and on those positions that have closed, median profitability has been 87%, below Scope expectations at closing. Vittorio Maniscalco +39 02 94758 456 Scope believes the Italian NPL sector will continue to under-perform into the medium term as the consequences of the pandemic have not yet worked [email protected] themselves through the economy. By the fourth quarter of 2021, Scope estimates that the share of transactions with collection volumes lagging Antonio Casado servicers’ forecasts will align with second quarter 2021 figures. +49 30 27891 228 Roughly EUR 4bn of Italian NPL securitisations have been issued in 2021 to-date, but Scope expects that volumes could rise to EUR 17bn by the end [email protected] of the year. Team leader David Bergman +39 02 9475 8940 This report provides a detailed analysis of the performance of transactions with at least one interest-payment date as of May 2021. This covers 30 transactions with [email protected] an aggregated gross book value of EUR 73 bn. See Appendix II for the performance snapshot. Scope Ratings GmbH Lennéstraße 5 D-10785 Berlin Phone +49 30 27891 0 Fax +49 30 27891 100 [email protected] www.scoperatings.com 1 As represented in Scope’s NPL report dated Dec-20 (68% of Italian NPL securitisations set to under-perform by Q1 2021). Bloomberg: RESP SCOP 28 July 2021 1/28 Semi-annual Italian NPL performance report: sector will under-perform into the medium term Performance of Italian NPL securitisations The chart measures transactions’ gross performance versus business plan gross expected collections. Source: Scope computations on servicers and payment reports. 28 July 2021 2/28 Semi-annual Italian NPL performance report: sector will under-perform into the medium term Table of Contents 1. Scope Outlook ...................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 4 1.1 Performance ......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 4 1.2. New issuance ....................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 7 2. Performance against servicers’ projections ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 7 2.1 Cumulative collection volumes .......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 7 2.2 Cumulative profitability of closed positions ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 9 2.3 Dynamic collection volumes and profitability analysis – since closing ...................................................................................................................................... 11 2.4 Performance drivers .......................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 15 3. Recovery strategy analysis ............................................................................................................................................................................................................... 16 4. Recovery expenses analysis ............................................................................................................................................................................................................ 19 5. Structural performance triggers ....................................................................................................................................................................................................... 22 Appendix I. Summary of trigger metrics ................................................................................................................................................................................................... 23 Appendix II. Summary of transaction performance ................................................................................................................................................................................. 24 Appendix III. NPL securitisations rated by Scope .................................................................................................................................................................................... 25 Appendix IV. Data disclaimer ..................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 27 28 July 2021 3/28 Semi-annual Italian NPL performance report: sector will under-perform into the medium term 1. Scope Outlook 1.1. Performance 18 of 30 transactions will Scope expects the material under-performance of the NPL sector to persist at current levels of -25%. Eighteen out of 30 transactions were under-perform by Q4 21 lagging servicers’ projections at the end of the first half of 2021; Scope does not expect this to change by the fourth quarter. Poor performance is not just a function of poor overall market conditions, however. Servicers that are nimbler in adapting to the conditions brought about by the pandemic and have selected the best-suited workout strategies have counteracted some Covid-19 impacts and improved transaction performance. Extra-judicial strategies like discounted-pay-offs and note-sales have helped compensate for slower court proceedings so far and we expect this trend to continue in the short to medium term until courts fully recover from backlogs. NPL indexes reflect market Scope’s NPL indices (Figures 1 and 2) reflect the dynamic performance of the Italian NPL transactions covered in this report. Appendix II weakness provides more detail on performance, including specific structural features. The NPL Performance Index (NPI) tracks the ratio between transactions’ aggregated cumulative proceeds (net of servicing fees and costs) and original cumulative business plan net forecasts. The NPI, which is computed on a set of 29 transactions, is at 94% of servicers’ expectations. In the last quarter, the Index bottomed out, but we expect it to remain below the 100% baseline in the medium term. Since economic conditions remain weak and uncertain, we are not expecting a recovery to pre-pandemic levels in the near term. In fact, risks remain to the downside as any rise in infections from Covid-19 variants could force the Italian government’s hand and lead to the re-imposition of restrictions. The Scope NPL Dynamic Coverage Index (SCI) shows the percentage of senior and mezzanine notes that has been repaid2 on a yearly basis. The index is used to infer the average remaining years needed for transactions to amortise, assuming the annual pace of collections remains stable. The performance of transactions, when measured against business-plan expectations, may not be comparable as underlying business plan assumptions may not be consistent. The SCI addresses this limitation by measuring collections against the size of the outstanding notes. The index shows that note amortisation has remained moderately stable over time because of the effect of transactions’ structural features such as interest subordination and under-performance events that, at times of low collections, drive faster amortisation of the senior notes. We project that the average number of years needed for transactions to amortise will remain in the range of six to eight years. The SCI, computed on a set of 30 transactions, is expected to increase during transaction lifetimes if collections remain
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