The State of Space

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The State of Space The space age is a little over 60 years old. The activity has mostly been the work of 2 countries, often driven by military or geopolitical motives. About 600 people have been in orbit. A dozen have set It’s important foot on the Moon to realize the and it is nearly 50 space program years since we’ve been there. Space is in its early travel is exciting phases… and dangerous. That sinking feeling… Meanwhile in China… The Private Sector Billionaire Dennis Tito paid $20 million to ride a Russian Soyuz for a week in the Space Staon. Charles Simonyi went twice (and space-walked the second me) for $35 million. Inspired by the $25,000 prize won by Lindbergh in 1927, the $10 million X-prize was won by Burt Rutan for a repeated sub- orbital flight reaching 100 km. Google has had a Moon prize. Billionaire entrepreneur Richard Branson (Virgin Group) partnered with Burt Rutan to form The Spaceship Company. There are 30 private space ouVits worldwide. SpaceShipTwo has had a disaster but plans paying flights in ~2021. Tickets are $250,000. They have $50 million in deposits and 30,000 eXpressions of interest. Note: there are 2000 billionaires in the world, and growing. People will die… The fatality rate in civil aviaon has declined by a factor of 100. Higher risk can be accepted in the pioneering phase, within a viable space business model. The Economics Simonyi spent ~$35m on two space junkets. R. Branson has spent $500m on space so far. E. Musk has also spent $600m on space so far. There are 2000 people worth >$109 worldwide. Collectively, they are worth over $10 trillion. $ Apollo Hubble Cassini 109 Kepler Avatar SPACE Poer 4 MidEx Titanic Shule Waterworld 108 SMEX Heaven’s Gate Discovery MOVIES Ben Hur 107 Getaway Fahrenheit 9/11 Godfather TrainspoCng 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 The Law • There have only been two internaonal space treaes with U.N. signatories. • The Outer Space Treaty of 1967 banned weapons in space (signed by many). • The Moon Treaty of 1979 covered rights and space ownership (signed by few). • Both treaes deal with State actors and are mute on commercial acBvity. Room at the Boòm Cubesats and other miniature technologies are dramacally lowering the bar for achieving Earth orbit. Solar sails put all the Solar System within reach. a dramac rise in nanosats in orbit is coming, huge fleets to deliver high speed Internet to almost all locaons on Earth. THE INTERNET COMMERCIAL RESEARCH MILITARY PIONEER 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 SPACE TRAVEL COMMERCIAL RESEARCH MILITARY PIONEER 1920 1950 1980 2010 2040 The future is here… .

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The Space Race Continues
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