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China’sshortmarch to aerospaceautonomy

Conversation with Graham Lake Forecasting turbulence over the seas

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February 2010

DEPARTMENTS COMMENTARY 3 Space debris: Turning goals into practice.

INTERNATIONAL BEAT 4 Changing aerospace cluster dynamics.

ASIA UPDATE 6 Crouching tiger, puffing dragon. Page 18 WASHINGTON WATCH 10 Page10 Some answers, but still some questions.

CONVERSATIONS 14 With Graham Lake.

INDUSTRY INSIGHTS 18 Homeland security goes transatlantic.

ENGINEERING NOTEBOOK 22 Hearts in free fall.

OUT OF THE PAST 44 Page 24 CAREER OPPORTUNITIES 46

FEATURES CHINA’S SHORT MARCH TO AEROSPACE AUTONOMY 24 China is stepping up its efforts in the aerospace arena and may be catching up with other nations sooner than expected. by Philip Butterworth-Hayes Page 32 NEW CAPABILITIES FOR GPS II/III 32 Civil customers now outnumber military users of GPS, and a new generation of satellites will bring even greater capabilities. by J.R.Wilson

FORECASTING TURBULENCE OVER THE SEAS 38 New techniques will soon provide pilots with advance warnings of turbulent skies in remote areas on transoceanic flights. by J.R.Wilson Page 38 BULLETIN AIAA Meeting Schedule B2 AIAA Courses and Training Program B4 AIAA News B5 Meeting Program B11

COVER China is well on its way to becoming a significant player in the aerospace arena.Turn to page 24 to learn about their remarkable strides.Cover image:Xi’an Terra Cotta Warriors,dating from 210 B.C.

Aerospace America (ISSN 0740-722X) is published monthly by the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Inc. at 1801 Alexander Bell Drive, Reston, Va. 20191-4344 [703/264-7577]. Subscription rate is a percentage of dues for AIAA members (and is not deductible therefrom). Nonmember subscription price: U.S. and Canada, $163, foreign, $200. Single copies $20 each. Postmaster: Send address changes and subscription orders to address above, attention AIAA Customer Service, 703/264-7500. Periodical postage paid at Herndon, VA, and at additional mailing offices. Copyright © 2010 by the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Inc., all rights reserved. The name Aerospace America is registered by the AIAA in the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office. 40,000 copies of this issue printed. This is Volume 48, No. 2. comment.feb.qxd:AA Template 1/13/10 2:42 PM Page 1

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is a publication of the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics

Elaine J. Camhi Editor-in-Chief Patricia Jefferson Space debris:Turning goals into practice Associate Editor Greg Wilson Production Editor Jerry Grey, Editor-at-Large We are discovering that developing space debris mitigation goals was far easier Christine Williams, Editor AIAA Bulletin than achieving them. The Inter-Agency Space Debris Coordination Committee is an interna- Correspondents tional governmental forum for the coordination of activities related to issues of Robert F. Dorr, Washington Philip Butterworth-Hayes, Europe man-made and natural debris in space. IADC space debris mitigation guidelines Michael Westlake, Hong Kong are the benchmark for preserving the space environment and assuring safe space operations. They have been incorporated into agency regulations, com- Contributing Writers mercial contracts and even laws. They may be costly and difficult to realize, but Richard Aboulafia, John Binder, James W. Canan, Marco Cáceres, Edward Flinn, we must pursue them enthusiastically. Tom Jones, ThéoPir ard, David Rockwell, Removing objects from the LEO protected region within 25 years from Frank Sietzen, J.R. Wilson end of mission is an example of the challenges. Orbit lifetime estimates are ex- tremely imprecise—since atmospheric drag is the major perturbing force, esti- Fitzgerald Art & Design Art Direction and Design mated lifetime depends strongly on the variable composition and density of the atmosphere, the changing attitude of the satellite relative to the direction of Craig Byl, Manufacturing and Distribution motion and the change in mass as propellants are expended or exhausted. David W. Thompson, President These estimates also depend on when the lifetime is estimated. Deorbit Robert S. Dickman, Publisher during periods of high solar activity is easier than during periods of low solar STEERING COMMITTEE activity. Extended launch delays may invalidate orbit lifetime estimates. Conser- Michael B. Bragg, University of Illinois; vative designs based on periods of lower atmospheric density might diminish Philip Hattis, Draper Laboratory; Mark S. payload unnecessarily if the mission ends during high solar activity. Optimistic Maurice, AFOSR; Laura McGill, Raytheon; designs based on periods of high atmospheric density may not have sufficient George Muellner, Boeing; Merri Sanchez, stored energy for safe disposal. National Aeronautics and Space Administra- In addition, orbit lifetime estimates are not testable or verifiable. The sam- tion; Mary Snitch, Lockheed Martin ple size may never be sufficient to correlate confidently actual lifetime with esti- EDITORIA L BOARD mates. What must the reliability of disposal systems be, and what is the energy Ned Allen, Lockheed Martin Aeronautics; cost of incorporating exquisitely reliable disposal systems? Jean-Michel Contant, EADS; Eugene The real threat posed by a mission-ended spacecraft also depends on the Covert, Massachusetts Institute of Technol- actual orbit. What would the sanctions be for not adhering to the guideline? ogy; L.S. “Skip” Fletcher, Texas A&M Uni- Could those who ignore the guideline be prevented from launching? Would versity; Michael Francis, United Technologies; anyone be willing to deorbit an offending spacecraft uncooperatively? How can Christian Mari, Teuchos; Cam Martin, we assure that the 25-year guideline has been met, and what can we do if it is NASA Dryden; Don Richardson, Donrich Research; Douglas Yazell, Honeywell not? Or, is 25 years not the best criterion, and should it be discarded? Disposal from geostationary orbit has similar issues. Drag is insignificant, ADVERTISING but the effect of solar radiation is variable, depending on solar cycles, satellite National Display and Classified: attitude and surface emissivity and absorptivity, which also vary. Robert Silverstein, 240.498.9674 Removing spent boosters from geostationary transfer orbits presents an- [email protected] other dilemma. These orbits cross both the LEO and GEO protected regions. West Coast Display: Greg Cruse, They also may require a long time to change favorably. Passivation guidelines 949.361.1870 / [email protected] compete with disposal guidelines if sufficient energy is to be available for de- Send materials to Craig Byl, AIAA, 1801 orbit. Boosters generally do not have enduring electrical systems, so the time Alexander Bell Drive, Suite 500, Reston, VA required for deorbit may exceed battery life. With roughly a 100:1 penalty for 20191-4344. Changes of address should be each additional unit of mass in orbit, disposal mechanisms might compromise sent to Customer Service at the same address, payload mass unacceptably. by e-mail at [email protected], or by fax at Several IADC guidelines engender these technical and operational issues. 703/264-7606. Industry and governments must address them. IADC should consider them and Send Letters to the Editor to Elaine Camhi at the same address or [email protected] either modify the guidelines or suggest how they might be achieved with ac- ceptable mission and lifetime burdens. Preserving the near Earth environment February 2010, Vol. 48, No. 2 for mutual benefit requires mutual sacrifice. David Finkleman CSSI BEATlayout210.qxd:AA Template 1/13/10 12:45 PM Page 2

Changingaerospaceclusterdynamics

WHAT IS THE BEST PLACE IN THE WORLD TO about relationships, and what we are see- start up a new aerospace manufacturing ing is the evolution of the supply chain to business? a more international marketplace.” Over the past 100 years the global If cluster dynamics are following the aerospace manufacturing industry has global supply chain, then we should tended to develop around a few cities— soon see this reflected in the way tradi- Wichita, Montreal, Seattle and Toulouse, tional sectoral clusters of North America for example—that have become hubs for and Europe work. a growing number of suppliers and re- What this means, in very broad lated businesses. terms, is that traditional clusters in North The process of “cluster” develop- America and Europe will do less manu- ments is now well documented. From facturing and concentrate more on de- Detroit to Silicon Valley, the dynamics of veloping high-end integration and high- why and how similar or competitive busi- technology skills, outsourcing the labor- nesses choose to work next to each intensive manufacturing work to clusters Christian Ketels other have been analyzed in depth. Most in low-wage economies. clusters originally formed around a key Arab Emirates has opened up new op- This is exactly what seems to be hap- organization that through its industry im- tions for companies looking to grow pening. The key to transforming manu- portance—as a major integrator or inter- their businesses. And some of the op- facturing clusters in North America and national airport—has provided a central portunities offered by companies in Europe to centers of aerospace excel- magnetic pole of attraction. In more re- countries where aerospace is expanding lence is access to innovation skills—cor- cent years other factors have increased rapidly will be greater than those offered porate and academic. There is a new im- the attractiveness of clusters. The devel- by relocating around traditional clusters. perative for traditional manufacturing opment of research institutions, gener- In addition, traditional clusters them- clusters to attract companies skilled in de- ous local and national government selves have also started to change, no sign and engineering, rapid prototyping, grants, the availability of a specialized longer looking inward toward key cus- software development, part manufactur- workforce and just-in-time production tomers but increasingly developing links ing, testing and research capabilities. manufacturing techniques have all with clusters in other parts of the world. played their part in concentrating aero- The government difference space manufacturing in a few regions of A new trend? In Europe the transformation process the world. So are we seeing a change in the way has been accelerated by government ini- Michael Porter of Harvard University clusters are developing? Are the days of tiatives. The French government, for ex- has created one of the most important traditional regional aerospace centers ample, recognized the Aerospace Valley recent analyses of cluster activity. He numbered, or is increasing globalization of Aquitaine and Midi-Pyrénées regions categorized such activity into four types: going to underline their importance? as a “global innovative cluster” in July geographic (a concentration of different “I think both,” says John Copely, 2005, and since then 212 partnership businesses in a single region), sectoral (a head of Farnborough Aerospace Con- projects have been launched, including concentration of businesses working in sortium (FAC), a cluster of aerospace Nikos Pantalos the same sector), horizontal (the devel- manufacturers in the southeast of the opment of connections, such as shared U.K. The FAC is typical of the many Eu- IT networks, between businesses) and ropean clusters that are rapidly building vertical (businesses at different levels in links to new aerospace markets in the the supply chain). Middle Ea st and Far East. But over the past few years the dy- “Our office in Dubai is particularly namics of traditional aerospace cluster important for us,” notes Copely, “espe- activities have started to change. cially for small and medium enterprises There are new entrants to the mar- looking to gain access to new markets. ket. The development of new aerospace They typically use the office for a year or businesses in China, Vietnam, Brazil, so before building up enough experience Mexico and, most recently, the United of the market. Clusters have always been

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143 projects financed for an overall EU. Many cluster initiatives have been budget of €450 million and public sup- developed at national and regional levels port of over €200 million. to support clusters, but there is a need The Aviation Cluster of the Ham- for striving for more excellence and co- burg Metropolitan Area launched the Eu- operation at the EU level in order to de- ropean Aerospace Cluster Partnership velop more world-class clusters in EU (EACP) in May 2009, a network of skills countries.” cooperation by a large number of Euro- While European and North Ameri- pean aerospace clusters. can clusters are developing new skills According to Christian Ketels from and new “virtual” cluster links with the Institute for Strategy and Competi- groups of companies in other parts of tiveness at the Harvard Business School, the world, there is a new generation of “The dispersion of Europe’s aerospace John Copley manufacturing clusters developing in industry across many locations has often low-wage economies to handle some of been brandished as a key competitive dis- ganizations. The Hamburg/Northern the manufacturing work no longer un- advantage versus the industry’s global ri- Germany and French Aerospace Valley dertaken by U.S. and European compa- vals. While consolidation in fewer strong clusters have an agreement to further ed- nies. But these are very different from clusters remains crucial, Europe’s eco- ucational links, exchange trainees and the traditional clusters developed in Eu- nomic fundamentals will continue to re- develop joint degree studies. rope and North America, and their dy- sult in more aerospace clusters than else- Such links with academia will be- namics are very different. where. The collaboration across these come particularly important if compa- For example, according to the Mexi- clusters is crucial to turn this combination nies are to access the new skills required can aerospace industry trade association of different capabilities and assets across in the coming years and influence uni- FEMIA, aerospace industry exports will Europe into a competitive advantage, versities to prioritize the syllabus so new reach $6 billion by the end of 2012. and reduce the costs of the geographic graduates understand the needs of the Mexico has developed its aerospace distance between them.” market when they qualify. “This has tra- manufacturing activities through a series ditionally been a fairly slow process,” of clusters located mainly in the Mexicali- European hubs says the FAC’s Copely. Tecate-Tijuana corridor and Baja, Calif. Aerospace manufacturing in Europe is But unlike traditional North American concentrated in a few key areas. Around Market demand and new niches and European clusters these do not have 90% of Poland’s aerospace manufactur- In Europe there tend to be two major central airframer companies acting as an ing industry is in the country’s Aviation types of clusters. There are traditional attracting force around which smaller Valley in southeast Poland, with more large groups of companies transforming companies gather. There are plans for than 22,000 aerospace employees. In legacy manufacturing centers into “inno- Cessna, Bombardier, Bell and MD Heli- the U.K., over 60% of all aircraft manu- vation” regions. But there are smaller copters to assemble complete airframes facturing takes place in the northwest of clusters as well, many in central and east- in the country, but none has done so yet. the country. In France the Aerospace ern Europe, building toward a niche po- Brazil, which does very well in ex- Valley of Aquitaine and Midi-Pyrénéess i sition within the global aerospace supply porting complete airframes, has concen- responsible for one-third of the country’s chain as a result of market demand trated its aerospace sector in the city of aerospace turnover, employing over rather than the incentives provided by lo- São José dos Campos, in São Paulo 100,000 people in 1,300 companies. cal or national governments. State. But with Embraer, the country’s These clusters already have an intri- The EACP will develop new links largest aerospace company, importing cate web of networked partnerships. between European aerospace clusters around 95% of its aircraft systems, struc- The Hungarian Aerospace Cluster and and has been partly funded by the Euro- tures and components from outside the the Hamburg-based Hanse-Aerospace pean Commission—in recognition of the country, the size of the São José dos Cluster are cooperating on joint research need to develop SMEs through cluster Campos cluster is much smaller than an into cabin systems development proj- initiatives. equivalent operation would be in Can- ects. The Polish Mazovia cluster of small According to Nikos Pantalos, senior ada, the U.S. or Europe. and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) level policy officer of the European Malaysia’s government has identified has begun talks with Germany’s Berlin- Commission: “Clusters are recognized as complex composite structures as the Brandenburg Aerospace Alliance on promising platforms for promoting inno- main driver for its aerospace industry UAV and VTOL UAV programs. vation and strengthening the competi- and a “sectoral” cluster developing Increasingly important are the grow- tiveness of firms, especially of SMEs, to around this area of expertise. Compos- ing networks of alliances between indus- better face the global competition and ites Technology Research Malaysia was trial clusters and research/academic or- create more jobs and companies in the (Continued on page 9)

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Crouchingtiger,puffingdragon

THEYEAR 2009 SEEMEDFILLEDWITH ically, much of the budget deficit has glory for China: U.S. President Barack been funded by China, seeking a use for Obama’s official visit to Beijing, the 60th the proceeds of the massive trade sur- anniversary of the PRC’s founding, plans plus it has with the U.S. emerging to put a man on the Moon, The implications for aerospace and and new fighter jets on the drawing for science and engineering in general, board. Politics and anniversaries aside, in what is often perceived as a two-horse whether or not the pace of China’s tech- race between the U.S. and China, are nological advances has increased dra- obvious. As Segal’s study said: “Above matically in the past few months, or all, [the U.S.] must not assume that fu- whether people outside—particularly in ture innovation will occur automatically. the U.S.—have been paying more atten- Only through renewed attention to sci- tion, there is no denying that China ence funding, educational reform, the seems to be on a roll in terms of further- health of labor and capital markets, and ing its aerospace capabilities. the vitality of the business environment After becoming the third nation to can the United States maintain its edge— put a man in space, having done so in and the most innovative economy in the 2003, China now appears intent on world.” landing one on the Moon by 2020, pos- sibly before the U.S. is able to return A Potemkin economy? there. And the deputy air force chief, But at the same time, it is necessary to Gen. He Weirong, says a fighter equiva- bear in mind that cultural differences lent to the Lockheed Martin F-22 should play a major role in how the state of play enter service by 2017-2019, somewhat in both the Chinese and U.S. technolog- ahead of the prediction by U.S. Defense ical worlds is presented. Russia’s infa- Secretary Robert Gates in July that mous Potemkin villages come to mind: On October 15, 2003, a Long March 2F launched China would not have such an aircraft Shenzhou 5, China's first manned spaceflight. These were facades of street fronts and before 2020. entire pasteboard villages supposedly But all is not completely as it seems built and peopled by imported peasants in this developing picture of China catch- could no longer be taken for granted as in 1787 to impress Empress Catherine ing up with technology, flexing its politi- Asian nations including China ramped the Great and to hide depressed living cal muscles on the world stage and in up spending on R&D and emphasized conditions when she toured the Ukraine just about every respect seeking to por- scientific and technological training. and Crimea by river. The U.S. has a re- tray itself as the new superpower. In like Pointing to the need for funding in cession-damaged economy that is open manner, all is not as it seems with the research, Segal said: “A record $422-bil- to public inspection; China has an econ- image of the U.S., as perceived from the lion budget deficit, for example, may un- omy that is whatever officials declare it outside, as riddled with angst about its dermine future government support for to be, much of it out of sight of foreign technological capability and with worry R&D. Recent shifts in federal spending researchers. about threats to its dominant position as will leave basic research—that driven by In short, the situation of the U.S. the leading world power. scientific curiosity rather than specific with regard to technological innovation, commercial applications—underfunded, though it could be far better, is not as Reexamining predictions depriving the economy of the building bad as it looks, and China’s may not be It is interesting to reread a study written blocks of futur e innovation.” as good as it looks. by Adam Segal and Maurice R. Green- Since then, of course, the U.S. na- It is also necessary to remember that berg, senior fellow for China studies at tional debt has ballooned to $8.8 trillion the sort of questioning, self-examination the Council on Foreign Relations, and in 2009 and is forecast to rise to $17.4 and criticism of and about officialdom published in 2004 in the New York- trillion by 2017, said Alice Rivlin, former that happens regularly in the U.S. takes based independent Foreign Affairs mag- vice chair of the Federal Reserve Board place freely and openly, while in China azine. Segal’s position was that long- and founding director of the Congres- such a process can be conducted only standing U.S. supremacy in technology sional Budget Office, in December. Iron- behind firmly closed doors.

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in Beijing in June 1989, visa restrictions in the U.S. after September 11, 2001, the collapse of the dotcom bubble and the recession in Sili- con Valley, the result is a net (though unquantified) brain drain. Comparing students’skills nese education systems inevitably match At home in China, Qian Xuesen Shifting forward in time, there was a apples against oranges because of differ- say Simon and Cao, “the warning in February 2009 about the ent classification terminology. In short, curriculum inside many fields tends to be quality of scientific education in both counting how many doctoral degrees are narrow, covering only the specific area China and the U.S. contained in a study issued (more to foreign students than to of study. As a result, Chinese universities published in Science Daily, a Maryland- locals in the U.S.) and showing that en- have become technique focused....Rote based Internet Web site that presents rollment in science and engineering learning, in which students who can an- news about science in general. The study courses in China has risen at 20% a year swer questions in classrooms may not be looked at skill levels among nearly 6,000 since 1999 is “Chicken Little” analysis: able to solve and manage real-life prob- freshmen at three U.S. and four Chinese “The sky is falling.” lems, still dominates higher educa- universities, and found that while Chi- The authors of the book are Denis tion....Creative thinking, entrepreneur- nese students were way ahead in knowl- Fred Simon, professor of international ship, interpersonal and intercultural edge of science facts, both nationalities affairs and director of the Program on skills, among others, have not been part were roughly equal in terms of reasoning U.S.-China Technology, Economic and of the pedagogy or curriculum, even at ability—but both scored poorly consider- Business Relations at Pennsylvania State key institutions.” ing that the students expected to major University, and Cong Cao, senior re- in science or engineering. search associate at the Neil D. Levin Official acknowledgment Associate professor of physics at Graduate Institute of International Rela- Such thoughts were behind comments Ohio State University Lei Bao, lead au- tions and Commerce, State University of made by the “Father of Chinese Rock- thor of the study, said: “Our study shows New York. Their analysis shows that etry,” Qian Xuesen, shortly before he that, contrary to what many people China’s cadre of scientists and engineers died in October 2009 at the age of 98. would expect, even when students are is far from overflowing with top people, In the official Beijing Xinhua news rigorously taught the facts, they don’t and that the situation is going to get agency obituary, Qian was referred to as necessarily develop the reasoning skills worse. The major problem, they say, is an “excellent member of the Communist they need to succeed. Because students quality—scientists and engineers there Party,” which he joined in 1959 after be- need both knowledge and reasoning, we may be, but the good ones are spread ing deported from the U.S., where he need to explore teaching methods that very thin. lived from 1935 to 1955. Qian studied in target both.” The result is what has been fairly well the U.S. and rose to high positions Again, cultural differences come into known about C hina for years: There are within the U.S. military’s scientific estab- play. A book published in 2009 by Cam- pools of excellence dotted around the lishment, becoming an expert in rock- bridge University Press, China’s Emerg- country, but little depth of knowledge, etry. He was arrested in 1950 on suspi- ing Technological Edge (Assessing the and the upcoming retirement bulge can cions that he had communist sympathies, Role of High-End Talent), makes the only worsen the problem. and was unsuccessful in attempting to point that comparisons of U.S. and Chi- Sending Chinese students to univer- stay in the U.S. sities in the U.S. or elsewhere overseas Chinese liberal intellectual Yang is a double-edged sword for Beijing. As Hengjun said to Xinhua in an interview Cao Jianlin Simon and Cao point out, a significant that Qian had harbored critical views on number of these students remain the future of education in China, which abroad—the best and the brightest, tak- he expressed to Premier Wen Jiabao, ing advantage of better earning power, who visited Qian while his health was opportunities and freedoms outside failing. China. So the effect is a downgrading of “Qian Xuesen’s words were harsh—he the talent pool at home. Also, while the told Wen that Chinese universities could numbers leaving or returning home have not raise first-class scientists.…The rea- fluctuated in response to various events, son, as we all know, is that our universi- such as the Tiananmen Square massacre ties are auxiliaries to the political system,

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and they are heavily influenced by the po- that may be intended for civilian pur- Without such a change, and without litical system,” Yang said. “Qian Xuesen poses but which could have military uses. a greater appreciation of the cultural dif- had always been meek to the authorities, “According to the U.S. speakers, ferences between an open U.S. culture but he finally asked a big question.” Congress has been strongly suspicious of (even with public relations “spin”) and a That these comments were published efforts to share information and hard- Chinese culture that, even after consid- by the government’s own agency illus- ware with China and other nations—but erable opening up is still far from having trates official awareness of and anxiety that is short-sighted and self-defeating, the same level of access to information about the situation. they said.” or the same manner of interpretation of AAAS is not the only learned body data, clashes of interpretation will re- Security concerns that is complaining. In January 2009, a main inevitable. International cooperation in technology report from the National Research It has often been said by foreigners and education is fine, but can be limited Council said: “Many U.S. export and that, when working for Western compa- by major differences in the approach to visa controls, developed during the Cold nies in China, local engineers want to try technology and its uses, brought about War era to prevent the transfer of tech- to run before they have learned how to by security concerns. A report from the nological and scientific advances to our walk. The other side of that coin is the American Association for the Advance- enemies, now harm U.S. national secu- comment made in Simon and Cao’s ment of Science (AAAS) in April 2009 rity and economic prosperity. The cur- book—specifically about ethnic Chinese on its conference marking 30 years of rent regulations were designed for a brought up overseas, but equally applica- cooperation in science and technology world that no longer exists and are un- ble to many foreign managers or other between the U.S. and China, said that suitable for today’s adversaries.I mmedi- “experts”—that “they don’t know what China’s vice minister for science and ate executive action is needed to restruc- they don’t know, and they don’t know technology, Cao Jianlin, and the U.S. ture this system to prevent further de- how much they don’t know” about living speakers “cited concerns over dual-use clines in U.S. scientific and technological in the local culture. The comment, of policies that limit export of technology competitiveness.” course, can be aimed in both directions. The ethos that encourages individu- alism, and at times demands tough intro- spection in the West in general and in the U.S. in particular, needs considerably more time to evolve in China, where the tendency is to follow a leader without question and not take risks in thinking too far outside the box. That evolution must run the gamut from technical and scientific education to international standards, project manage- ment, and the creation by scientists and engineers of “invisible colleges” (to use Simon and Cao’s term) of colleagues and peer group members outside their imme- diate work circles with whom they can exchange ideas and from whom they can seek inspiration when problem solving. Other Asian centers of industry such as South Korea, Taiwan and Singapore have, to a greater or lesser extent, un- dergone just such a transition in their thinking and their education systems, while still retaining local characteristics. Without such an evolution, and consider- able patience from actual and potential U.S. and other partners with China, the continuing development of the relation- ship is inevitably going to suffer from the complexities of trying to guess real mo- tives and establish what is truly happen- ing on both sides of the Pacific. Michael Westlake [email protected]

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(Continued from page 5) grated within the global supply chain, North America are changing. The pro- established by the government in 1990 while the Beijing-based defense, air- cess will most probably accelerate as and has developed to include Airbus, borne systems and engine companies companies seek to become increasingly Boeing and Goodrich as major custo- will oversee the development of prima- more efficient at accessing new sources mers. Since then, other composite man- rily indigenous capabilities. of innovative technologies in their do- ufacturers have also been attracted to mestic markets—and low-labor wage Malaysia: Asian Composites Manufactur- vvv rates elsewhere. ing, a joint venture by Sime Darby It is clear that the dynamics of aerospace Philip Butterworth-Hayes Berhad and Naluri Berhad of Malaysia cluster developments in both Europe and [email protected] and Boeing and Hexcel of the U.S., set up shop in 2001, and Spirit AeroSys- tems Mal aysia opened a composite facil- Events Calendar ity in 2009, supplying structures princi- pally to the Airbus single-aisle aircraft. FEB. 2-4 U.S. Air Force T&E Days, Nashville, Tennessee It is hard to identify any region in Eu- Contact: 703/264-7500 rope or North America that has concen- FEB. 10-11 trated so heavily on a single manufactur- Thirteenth Annual FAA Commercial Space Transportation Conference, ing sector such as composite structures, Arlington, Virginia to the exclusion of almost every other Contact: 703/264-7500 subsector. FEB. 14-18 Asian centers Twentieth AAS/AIAA Space Flight Mechanics Meeting, San Diego, Japanese companies, meanwhile, have California begun an aerospace manufacturing clus- Contact: A. Trask, [email protected] ter in Hanoi, Vietnam, with both Mit- FEB. 23-26 subishi Heavy Industries and Nikkiso re- Space, Propulsion & Energy Sciences International Forum, cently setting up manufacturing plants in Laurel, Maryland the capital. Contact: Glen Robertson, 256/694-7941; [email protected] China’s aerospace manufacturing in- dustries are distributed throughout the MARCH 6-13 country, with major civil aircraft clusters 2010 IEEE Aerospace Conference, Big Sky, Montana in Harbin and Shanghai. In late 2008 Contact: David Woerner, 818/726-8228 the Chinese government announced the MARCH 16-17 remerger of AVIC I and AVIC II, which Congressional Visits Day, Washington, D.C. had separated in 1999. Contact: 703/264-7500 Under the new structure, civil aircraft manufacturing has been centralized in MARCH 22-24 Shanghai with the development of Com- Eighth U.S. Missile Defense Conference and Exhibit, Washington, D.C. mercial Aircraft Corporation of China to Contact: 703/264-7500 manage the C919 190-seat airliner and MARCH 22-24 ARJ-21 regional jet. An AVIC helicopter Forty-fifth 3AF Symposium of Applied Aerodynamics, Marseilles, France company has been set up in Tianjin. Contact: Anne Venables, [email protected] But most of the other aerospace ac- tivities have been brought back to Bei- APRIL 12-15 jing. A defense branch has been set up in Fifty-first AIAA/ASME/ASCE/AHS/ASC Structures, Structural Dynamics the capital to develop new capabilities in and Materials Conference; 18th AIAA/ASME/AHS Adaptive Structures areas such as unmanned air systems and Conference; 12th AIAA Nondeterministic Approaches Conference; to export J-10, JF-15 and L-15 Falcon 11th AIAA Gossamer Systems Forum; Sixth AIAA Multidisciplinary military jets. A new engine company has Design Optimization Specialist Conference. Orlando, Florida been established in an aerospace cluster Contact: 703/264-7500 zone near Beijing Capital International APRIL 20-22 Airport, and an airborne systems division AIAA Infotech@Aerospace 2010, Atlanta, Georgia has been set up in the Zhongguancun Contact: 703/264-7500 Aviation Science Park of Haidian district, APRIL 25-30 in northwest Beijing. SpaceOps 2010 Conference: Delivering on the Dream (hosted by This reformation of aerospace clus- NASA Marshall and organized by AIAA), Huntsville, Alabama ters suggests that companies based in Contact: 703/264-7500 Shanghai and Tianjin will be fully inte-

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Someanswers,butstill somequestions

ASWINTERARRIVEDIN WASHINGTON, THE ment center. The bill also requires the defense appropriations bill was signed, servi ce to conduct a cost-benefit analysis while questions about NASA’s future hu- of its plan to shift F-15 training from man spaceflight program remained un- Tyndall AFB in Florida to the Oregon answered, and divergent plans for a new Air National Guard’s Kingsley Field. The light combat aircraft began to emerge. bill temporarily halts a shutdown of F-15 operations at Tyndall even though the Defense budget ayes and nays unit no longer has a mission to perform. Largely unnoticed by press and public, The spending bill contained 1,720 on December 19 the Senate approved earmarks—those pesky add-ons sought and President Barack Obama later by individual lawmakers for their dis- signed the $636.3-billion FY10 defense tricts, seen as democracy at its purest by appropriations law. supporters and as pork by critics. Many Almost three months late—Congress The defense budget calls for 10 C-17s, which the support museums and cultural centers in is rarely punctual in fulfilling this core re- Air Force, the DOD and the administration do lawmakers’ home districts, viewed by not want. sponsibility—the bill contains provisions some as luxuries given the federal deficit. the administration wanted—and some it did not. The legislation is a success for Air Force does not need more C-17s, as Defense Secretary Robert Gates’ effort does Air Force chief of staff Gen. Norton to halt production of the F-22 Raptor su- Schwartz. The administration did not re- perfighter at 187 airframes, to kill a quest the aircraft and says it does not combat search and rescue helicopter for want them. But supporters say the order the Air Force and to postpone develop- will keep alive Boeing’s Long Beach, mental work on the next-generation California, assembly plant, which pro- bomber. duces no other product. The planemaker Because it puts an end to, or post- has also sold a handful of additional cop- pones, several big-ticket acquisition pro- ies overseas, including a new (seventh) grams, critics say the bill is gutting the C-17 for Britain’s Royal Air Force. Air Force and widening a “fighter gap” Also in the defense bill is limited that looms as a handicap to U.S. air- funding for the Lockheed Martin VH-71 power in the coming decade. Yet when Kestrel presidential helicopter, based on adjusted for inflation and added to the triple-engine AgustaWestland EH- A shutdown of F-15 operations at Tyndall has expected supplemental legislation to 101. Back on May 15, Gates announced been temporarily halted. cover an increase of 30,000 troops in he was terminating the VH-71, which Afghanistan, U.S. defense spending in was to become the future Marine One, FY10 rises to a level not reached since after delays and cost overruns caused by Light combat aircraft WW II. And it is rising at a time when a retroactive requirements for additional The Air Force and Navy are pursuing $1.4-trillion federal deficit is predicted equipment. The bill will enable the Ma- separate programs for small, light com- for FY10 alone. rines to operate five of the 23 VH-71s bat warplanes meant to be effective in Among items the administration did once planned although it is unclear counterinsurgency and special opera- not want are 10 C-17 Globemaster III whether, or how, they will fit into a pres- tions. The services are searching for a airlifters for the Air Force. Gates says the idential fleet. Ashton Carter, the Penta- combat version of a turboprop training gon’s acquisitions boss, says he hopes to aircraft, like the Brazilian Embraer EMB- start another presidential helicopter pro- 314 Super Tucano or the U.S. Hawker gram by this spring. Beechcraft T-6 Texan II. A dark-horse The bill prohibits the Air Force from candidate is a resurrected version of the carrying out its plan to retire 248 F-15 Vietnam-era OV-10 Bronco, which Eagle and F-16 Fighting Falcon legacy would be assembled by Boeing at a facil- The defense bill will enable the Marines to fighters pending an April 1 report by a ity yet to be named. operate five VH-71s. federally funded research and develop- Some on Capitol Hill believe the dis-

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aircraft and more worried that the 10 Thunderbolt II. He says the Air Force small-warplane idea is a fad that is and Navy have both ignored the CAS being pursued in several directions mission for years, making do with war- without adequate planning, proce- planes that were not designed for direct dures or oversight. contact with troops. The Air Force program, which The LAAR program is being run by was known as OA-X until recently the Air Force’s Air Combat Command, and is now called LAAR (for light which is responsible for traditional war- attack armed reconnaissance air- fare, rather than Air Force Special Oper- craft) calls for a small plane with an ations Command, which handles un- advanced sensor suite; hardpoints orthodox fighting. Details of the Combat versions of the Super Tucano (left), T-6 (bottom) to carry light missiles, bombs and program, including the amount allocated and OV-10 are all LAAR program candidates. rockets; and the independent capa- to it in the FY10 budget, have not been bility to find and engage targets at disclosed. Supporters believe the pro- parate programs should be merged into night. The LAAR would also function as gram will produce a low-cost, highly ef- a single effort. Others wonder if invest- a forward air control aircraft, directing fective battlefield asset suitable for today’s ing in a lightweight combat aircraft is a gunfire and ordnance from other plat- conflicts; critics say LAAR is in effect a good idea at all, since it would entail sig- forms. The aircraft will need to operate cop-out, a way of avoiding a stronger nificant start-up costs and have little ap- from austere forward operating bases, and deeper commitment to CAS. plicability to large-scale “peer” conflicts including crude airstrips of grass or If the Air Force has been quiet about between nation states. To complicate the gravel. It needs to be largely self-sustain- LAAR, the Navy has been silent about situation, legislators from Kansas, where ing, since it will operate in locations Imminent Fury, the demonstrator pro- the T-6 is assembled in Wichita, object to where maintenance support is all but gram that involves a Super Tucano— the Pentagon considering a Brazilian air- nonexistent. Kansas legislators notwith-standing—that craft under any circumstances. Some of the requirements, including appeared at three bases in the western Last November, Sen. Sam Brown- those for high-altitude capability and for U.S. last November. The aircraft is back (R-Kan.) and Rep. Todd Tiahrt an on-board oxygen generation system, equipped with an electrooptical sensor in (R-Kan.) sent a letter to House of Repre- seem tailored to the war in Afghanistan. the nose turret and satellite and secure sentatives leaders requesting an investi- “If you’ve got three or four Seals or communications systems. gation into reports that the U.S. and Green Berets stuck on a mountain and According to the British magazine Brazil are negotiating an agreement for the enemy is engaging them, this is a Air International, the Navy leased the air- U.S. acquisition of at least 100 Super reasonable answer,” former Pentagon craft from EP Aviation, a subsidiary of Tucanos. The two, strong defenders of analyst Pierre Sprey says. “All they need contractor Xe Security, formerly named the T-6, argued that such an agreement are some really accurate airborne .50- Blackwater International. The service is would “demean the integrity of the fed- caliber machine guns or light cannons expected to eventually lease four Super eral acquisition process” and result in the assigned to them and guaranteed avail- Tucanos, designated A-29B, to evaluate loss of thousands of American jobs. able within 10 minutes.” their capabilities. Tiahrt sent a similar letter to Gates. Sprey says a purchase of 50-100 Analysts in Washington, including LAARs would be a reasonable expendi- NASA and human spaceflight some who follow acquisition closely, are ture, but would not substitute for “a real A meeting between Obama and new less concerned about the prospect that close air support [CAS] aircraft,” mean- NASA boss Charles Bolden at the White the Pentagon might purchase a Brazilian ing a replacement for the venerable A- House on December 16 did not produce

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the usual public statement afterward and a new heavy-lift launcher, replacing the resulted in no decision on the agency’s Constellation program’s Ares V, which human spaceflight future. Spokesmen for has not yet been built or tested, to take the president and the administrator say astronauts to the Moon, asteroids, and they have no new information to impart the moons of Mars, as well as for cargo. while acknowledging that a policy must The initial Ares I launcher that is part of be set forth in public soon. The adminis- the Constellation program and that has Charles F. Bolden tration is scheduled to announce its FY11 completed a test flight is reportedly suf- budget request this month. fering cost and technical issues and was made a policy announcement on human On the agenda for the Obama- excluded from several of the Augustine spaceflight. Bolden meeting was the work of a blue panel’s recommendations. The Science A White House statement following ribbon panel headed by former aero- article suggests that the White House is the Obama-Bolden meeting said: “The space executive Norman Augustine. convinced that scarce NASA funds president confirmed his commitment to Last October, the Augustine panel listed would be better spent on a simpler human space exploration and the goal of eight options for the future of the Con- heavy-lift vehicle that could be ready to ensuring that the nation is on a sustain- stellation program. But the committee fly as early as 2018. able path to achieving our aspirations in stopped short of telling the administra- Whether the report is accurate or space. Against a backdrop of serious tion or NASA what to do. not, it appears that NASA engineers are challenges with the existing program, According to the online edition of more satisfied with the Constellation the Augustine committee has offered Science magazine, Obama intends to program's Orion crew exploration vehi- several key findings and a range of op- seek a $1-billion increase in the NASA cle (CEV) than with efforts to construct a tions for how the nation might improve budget for FY11. The funds, according booster for it. When we went to press, its future human spaceflight activities. to the report, will be used in part to fund however, the administration had not yet The two spoke about the administrator’s

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work at NASA and discussed the Augus- complete the international space station. The three joined spacefarers already tine committee’s analysis.” After the last flight, the shuttle’s 134th, aboard, station commander Jeff Williams Some critics have asked whether the agency is scheduled to ground its or- and cosmonaut Maxim Suraev, who is Bolden—an experienced astronaut and biter fleet, and the nation will have no station flight engineer. Williams and Vietnam combat pilot who was not the way to put astronauts into space until, or Suraev will return to Earth in late March president’s first choice for the NASA unless, NASA proceeds with the Con- aboard another Soyuz, but three more portfolio—is pushing hard enough for stellation program. astronauts are scheduled for launch in Constellation. One Washington wag If Constellation matures as originally early April to boost the ISS crew to six. pointed to the stark contrast between planned, the Ares rocket and Orion The final year of space shuttle opera- Gates’ Pentagon and Bolden’s NASA: CEV will be ready for launch sometime tions was scheduled to begin with the Gates is widely viewed as willing to take between NASA’s official estimate of February 7 launch of Endeavour on STS- unpopular positions and to make difficult 2014 and the Augustine panel’s 2017 130 to deliver the Tranquility node and decisions. Bolden is respected and ad- date. In the interim, U.S. astronauts will cupola, the last remaining segments of mired but is not known to have taken a hitch rides on Russia’s Soyuz, launched the station. The STS-130 crew is com- controversial position on Constellation. from the Baikonur cosmodrome in manded by Marine Corps Col. George Many believe Bolden would like to push Kazakhstan, even though some U.S. D. Zamka and will carry six astronauts. harder for the next-generation human sources believe Soyuz has its own safety The cupola is a robotic control station spaceflight program but feels con- and reliability issues. with six windows around its sides and an- strained by his, and his agency’s, relative Their experience may be like that of other in the center that provides a 360- lack of clout in the administration. NASA astronaut Timothy Creamer, who, deg view around the station. Also sched- As currently planned and funded, together with Russia’s Oleg Kotov and uled this month: the arrival of a Progress NASA has five shuttle missions remain- Japan’s Soichi Noguchi, docked with the unmanned resupply ship. Robert F.Dorr ing, all scheduled to launch this year, to ISS aboard a Soyuz on December 22. [email protected]

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GrahamLakeInterview by Frank Sietzen

How, globally, are ANSPs [air naviga- tion service providers] managing the current airline recession—what have In December 2009 Graham Lake was Lake was also the founding been some of the consequences of appointed director general of CANSO,the president of AeroMobile, traffic decline, and has this fed into Civil Air Navigation Services Organization, a joint venture company service provision? based in Amsterdam. of ARINC andTelenor Well first, it’s important we ac- Norway,launched knowledge that ANSPs have recognized He began his career as an air traffic to develop and that the airlines are struggling; they have controller with U.K.NATS (National Air operate mobile reacted positively and have taken steps Traffic Services) in 1976 before moving communications to help. That in itself is somewhat of a to SITA as assistant vice president services on aircraft change from past decades. Within the international relations in 1988,focusing for passenger constraints of their regulatory structure, on CNS/ATM (communications,naviga- and crew use. ANSPs have been working hard to cut tion, surveillance/air traffic management) In 2006 costs where possible. But as CANSO implementation in Europe and (for Graham set [Civil Air Navigation Services Organiza- oceanic use) in the Atlantic and Pacific up his own tion] has already said publicly, we do not regions. aviation want to imperil long-term investment technical plans, nor of course does anyone want In 1997 he became a vice president at services to see any cuts to front-line services. So ARINC in Annapolis,Md.,responsible for consultancy, the room for our members to reduce the aviation services division.He then AMSS, costs faster than the decline in traffic is moved to the U.K.as managing director and was understandably limited. of the ARINC EMEA (Europe,the Middle appointed East,and Africa) region.In that capacity nonexecutive Where is CANSO now in its develop- he led teams providing passenger systems chairman ment curve—how will the organization at more than 20 major international of Micro Nav, and the industry evolve in the next airports,as well as aircraft datalink and an ATC simulation few years? IT services for airline and ATC (air traffic systems To borrow a Churchillian quote, control) use. company. CANSO is at the “end of the beginning.” The secretariat and the members have performed outstanding work to bring the association from a standing start to tion, by working closely with members take a step back and look over an ex- where it is today in less than 15 years. and partner associations to provide the tended period into the past and project The CANSO brand is strong and the or- appropriate support necessary to facili- traffic trends into the future, we can cer- ganization is respected throughout the tate these trends. tainly say that we are experiencing a sig- nificant but temporary downturn. Our in- “The industry needs to look at the total value chain dustry has lost about two years’ worth of from the moment the passenger walks into the airport traffic growth. Don’t forget that this also has to be balanced in context with what until he leaves at the other end of the journey. ” might be termed the years of “excess” before 2008. I firmly believe the traffic industry. The challenge now is for us to Given the wide oscillations in traffic trend will soon be upwards again; we continue to deliver and to meet or ex- (and income) and the requirement for must plan accordingly and prudently. ceed raised expectations. long-term investment, is there an eco- All industries suffer from variations In terms of the evolution of the as- nomic model emerging for ANSPs in income, and I don’t believe aviation is sociation and the industry, we are seeing that offers a clear blueprint that bal- unduly susceptible. The lesson to remem- clear trends towards convergence and ances the needs of aircraft operators ber for me is that it is better to “mend the harmonization technologically, opera- with long-term investment plans? roof when the sun is shining,” because it tionally and institutionally. CANSO will I don’t accept that there are “wide” is much harder to be obliged to do so in continue to support this industry evolu- oscillations in traffic and income. If we an economic rainstorm.

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GrahamLake Interview by Philip Butterworth-Hayes

If we look at what aircraft operators tween the technical capabilities of on- Airport managers—especially those re- really need, it is of course a safe, reliable, board systems to optimize flight pro- sponsible for optimizing taxiway and environmentally sound and cost-efficient files—especially in terms of taking the runway operations—need to be en- service. I believe they get that from shortest route—and the ground-based gaged more fully in strategic ATM ca- ANSPs. We can debate the level of cost systems managing the overall traffic pacity and safety planning, otherwise efficiency here and there, but ultimately flow. What role will CANSO play in all we will be doing with NextGen and real efficiencies will only come from har- bringing these two closer together? SESAR [Single European Sky ATM Re- monization across all stakeholder inter- I agree that there is a mismatch be- search] is moving traffic more swiftly ests. Systemic change is going to be tween the technical capabilities of some between bottlenecks. Do you agree, more important to achieve than charges onboard systems and some ground- and if so, how can this be done? reform, for example. based systems in terms of traffic flow. I do agree that the ground infra- However, I don’t think that the systems structure issues need to be comprehen- “If we look at what aircraft themselves are the problem. Obviously, sively addressed. As I mentioned before, operators really need, it is there is little point in having a shorter there is no point spending resources to of course a safe, reliable, route between two airports using flex shorten a ro ute if there are going to be tracks if there is going to be unexpected bigger delays at the end of the flight be- environmentally sound or unavoidable holding at either end of cause the airport operations are not ade- and cost-efficient service.” the flight. Solving those sorts of aspects quately optimized—no parking gate avail- is a bigger challenge. CANSO will never- able at the arrival airport, for example. The industry needs to look at the to- theless continue to bring stakeholders to- Ultimately, it is important that we recog- tal value chain from the moment the pas- gether with the objective of achieving nize that ATM is part of a system that re- senger walks into the airport until he system-wide efficiencies. flects the needs of airlines, airports, and leaves at the other end of the journey. ANSPs. We all need to work together to The whole industry needs a path to follow, With the advent of global ATM [air adapt and adopt solutions that offer real a “vector,” if you will: Historically there traffic management] we will need glo- benefits. has been a tendency for each sector and bal, transnational management sys- organization to focus on its own chal- tems to implement a seamless system. What new technologies and proce- lenges in isolation. The trend today is Yet states, for reasons of national sov- dures do you think offer the most collaboration, interoperability and har- ereignty, are notoriously slow at em- promising solutions to the safety, ca- monization. This has to be a good thing. bracing these concepts. What can pacity, efficiency and environmental CANSO do to accelerate the process? challenges of the future? Will the recession lead to more ANSP It is true that with the advent of a It is essential to understand that a corporatization moves, or fewer? global ATM system we will need transna- common approach to these challenges is We have to remember that this pe- tional management systems, but I don’t likely to deliver the most success. I per- riod is not the only recession in the his- think we will need completely global sys- sonally am a “technology agnostic”—I tory of aviation. Remember the oil shock in 1973-1974, and the deep recessions “So many unforeseen events have the potential to in the early 1980s and ’90s. So many seriously affect aviation—9/11 of course, or the trauma unforeseen events have the potential to of the postcrash grounding of the DC10 fleet—the seriously affect aviation—9/11 of course, or the trauma of the postcrash grounding industry has to be strong enough to withstand of the DC10 fleet—the industry has to be and weather these shocks.” strong enough to withstand and weather these shocks. tems per se. We already have regional don’t believe that it is a technology de- Whether ANSPs choose to “corpo- and subregional systems in place, and bate; it’s a solutions debate. For exam- ratize” themselves is not really the issue. the first objectives should be and are to ple, CANSO will not be entering into It is much more about the collective or- get them functioning effectively together. technological evaluations but will be ganized strength of the industry to with- CANSO contributes to that effort by seeking to identify and facilitate the im- stand times of difficulty. identifying key areas of action and ap- plementation of well-thought-through plying focused workgroups to develop approaches to each of the key opera- There continues to be a mismatch be- optimal approaches to the challenge. tional areas of focus.

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How close are we to developing clear It allows them to make compar- playing, I would like to examine some of metrics that can objectively measure isons. If you are measuring operations, the ways we can go beyond that. service performance? day in day out, you can actually under- Actually I think tremendous progress stand very clearly where performance is Are you worried that, when we com- has been made on ATM indicators in re- remaining stable, improving or deterio- pare the work of developing next-gen- cent years. You can see that in the work rating. And if it is deteriorating you can eration ATM systems—via SESAR and of the CANSO global benchmarking use the base metrics to take the appro- NextGen, for example—and then look group and our human resources and en- priate actions to bring it back on track. at the level of research funding that is vironment work groups. CANSO will We are already seeing ANSP CEOs ac- available to states in other parts of continue to encourage the development, knowledge that the Benchmarking Re- the world, particularly Africa, we are port is helping them to improve the per- in danger of developing a two-track “I personally am a formance of their organizations, and this global ATM system? What can be is obviously something we want to focus done about it? ‘technology agnostic’ on in years to come. The reality of the world is that it is a —I don’t believe that I am absolutely in favor of perform- large and complicated environment, and it is a technology debate; ance metrics being used as a framework the solutions to its problems therefore it’s a solutions debate.” for a global vision. It’s all about interde- must also be large and complicated. If pendency—benchmarking staffing levels, you use the analogy of a large multina- the environment…there are so many ar- tional supermarket chain then the opera- refinement and adoption of robust, pub- eas you can now take a critical look at tional technologies they employ to max- licly available and accountable metrics. and monitor. It allows us to look too at imize their revenues include loyalty The aim will be to provide appropriate strategic trends, so when we are asked programs, automated checkout tech- measures and indicators that can be ef- fectively used as a “dashboard” by CEOs and managers throughout the industry. “The reality of the world is that it is a large and complicated environment,and the solutions to its But in your performance gathering problems therefore must also be large and work, which areas of ANSP perform- ance can we now measure accurately complicated.” and compare? Can you point to areas where this work has led or will lead to about ANSP performance we have clear nologies, and complex retail and stock- actual improvements? evidence of what is happening. ing systems. But they are also operating Both the FAA and Eurocontrol have in the same business as the local corner done some excellent work in this area, ANSPs are coming under increasing shop. The market is the same—but we which we have built on with our own pressure to mitigate commercial avia- have to create a situation where the CANSO Global Benchmarking Report. tion’s impact on the environment— high-tech business area does not shut Our fifth report is just about to be pub- one of the goals of SESAR, for exam- out the low-tech players. lished, and it builds on the FAA and Eu- ple, is to cut CO2 emissions per flight So the issue is to make sure that all ropean metrics with additional contribu- in Europe by 10%. But aren’t some of the systems are harmonized. This is par- tions from ANSPs in the Asia Pacific, these targets unrealistic, given that ticularly important for aircraft operators— Africa and Middle East [regions], so it’s a there always has to be a balance be- we have to make sure all the systems are truly global perspective. tween emissions, safety, noise and air- synchronized and that the whole ATM The report encompasses productiv- space architecture? system becomes more efficient. And that ity, cost-effectiveness, pricing, profitabil- I am a firm believer in interdepen- means not looking exclusively at shorter ity and quality of service. Plus we also in- dency, and I believe ANSPs, airports, air- flight times or optimal flight profiles but clude benchmarks on HR, environment lines or other industry stakeholders will at the harmonized interdependency of and safety issues. The whole point about find it harder to act alone than with other the whole system. all performance measurement work— stakeholders. We need to find a harmo- And I recognise that CANSO is in a whether you are developing metrics for nized approach to the problem. It is un- privileged position to help with that. I salaries, environmental performance, reasonable to expect ANSPs in isolation also believe that there is strength in di- capital equipment costs—is that the dash- to find ways to meet these objectives. versity. The more stakeholders that we board can be used by the people who SESAR is an example of a regional can involve in constructively working to manage air navigation services and the approach to a global challenge. While I a converging vision, the better for the in- systems’ users. would applaud the role that SESAR is dustry as a whole.

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Homelandsecuritygoestransatlantic

U.S. AND EUROPEANDEFENSEANDAERO- purchases made the previous year. Of the heated that a U.S. and a European com- space companies are working to build up five largest acquisitions in 2008, three pany engaged in an acquisition bidding their homeland security business to tap were related to homeland security. BAE war. Ultimately New York-based L-1 into an increasingly important market Systems purchased Detica Group for Identity Solutions beat off a challenge by and build a transatlantic business base. £531 million in the fall of 2008. Detica’s Safran to win Digimarc’s identification expertise is in software that can manage systems business for $310 million. Flurry of purchases and analyze databases for antiterrorist At a time when acquisitions have slowed and antifraud applications. Cyber security and other hot areas considerably, homeland security has be- The two largest acquisitions that year Cyber security in particular has become come one of the hottest areas for merg- were predominantly defense, but also in- an extremely hot acquisition area, with ers related to defense and aerospace. volved important homeland security busi- Raytheon making four ac quisitions over Two of the seven largest defense and ness. Finmeccanica’s $3.9-bi llion acqui- the past four years and Harris making aerospace acquisitions in 2009 were sition of DRS Technologies in October one. In April 2009 Harris purchased companies purchased, at least in part, 2008 provided the Italian national cham- Crucial Security, a company that identi- for their homeland security business. pion with important new capabilities in fies network vulnerabilities. Raytheon France’s Safran purchased an 81% stake border security and UAVs. The $2.5-bil- purchased BBN Technologies, another in General Electric’s Homeland Protec- lion leveraged buyout of Booz Allen company involved in cyber security, for tion business in a $580-million transac- Hamilton’s U.S. government business approximately $350 million in October. tion, the largest pure-play homeland se- provided the Carlyle Group with a com- The flurry of acquisitions is indicative curity acquisition, in September 2009. pany whose expertise includes intelli- of increased interest by defense and aero- That same month General Dynamics gence analysis, operational support, space companies, which have taken no- paid $643 million for Aysys Technolo- strategy and emergency management. tice of the market’s rapid growth. Little- gies, a manufacturer of high-perfor- Booz Allen plays a key role in assisting noticed European corporations have mance electrooptical and infrared sen- Boeing on the SBI net, a virtual border become transatlantic leaders in several sors and systems and of multiaxis fence for the U.S. that links radar, cam- key areas of the market, from detection stabilized cameras. eras and communications. to biometrics to public sector radios. This came after a string of similar In one case, the market became so With a string of about 10 acquisitions

Border inspection requirements have led to mergers and corporate realignments.

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DHS OBLIGATIONAL AUTHORITY U.S. companies also are increasing their homeland security business lines, through acquisitions, international pur- $Billions suits, and R&D breakthroughs. The fo- $60 cus here is more on building up a U.S. 55.1 52.5 business base and using that to export to 50 47.347 3 other countries. It tends to be a less transatlantic approach, and instead one 42.8 40.4 more geared to satisfying the strong 40 38.538 5 35.6 U.S. market and making exports to the 31.3 Middle East, Asia, South America and 30 other emerging markets.

20 Growth and goals on the rise The reason for this heightened interest in homeland security by leading firms in 10 both Europe and the U.S. is clear. As companies grow more nervous about the 0 outlook for defense budgets on both 2003 2004 2005 20062007 20082009 2010 sides of the Atlantic, homeland security is becoming an increasingly attractive business opportunity with growth contin- in the past decade on both sides of the EADS, the Franco-German-Spanish uing for the foreseeable future. Atlantic, U.K.-based Smiths Group has aerospace giant, purchased PlantCML, Total U.S. homeland security funding created the world’s largest detection which provides call management and ra- is up more than 160% since FY01, and business, with customers in airports and dio dispatch products for emergency call it continues to grow. That is particularly ports around the world. centers. The move is an effort to over- attractive at a time when the commercial France’s Safran, a world leader in take market leader Motorola in the U.S. aerospace market is already under pres- biometrics, expanded that core work public safety mobile radio market. sure and the U.S. and European defense with the acquisition of U.S.-based Mo- budgets expect to feel more. torola’s biometrics business in 2008. Congress has mandated that all maritime cargo Not only has the size of the market Safran then broadened into detection containers entering the U.S. be scanned. grown but so too have potential business with its purchase of the 81% stake in opportunities. For years after the 2001 General Electric’s homeland security de- terrorist attacks, the homeland security tection business. sector was relatively sluggish as the U.S. BAE Systems’ purchase of U.K.- and other countries sought to decide based Detica was based on its belief that what to do to protect their homeland. Detica’s security capabilities in risk miti- The Dept. of Homeland Security (DHS), gation can be brought to the U.S. mar- created in the wake of the attacks, ket. It follows a decision by BAE Sys- sought to meld 22 agencies into one. It tems’ management to establish home- needed to create a procurement infra- land security growth as a top strategic structure, and much of the initial funding goal of the company. Earlier acquisitions increase went into hiring personnel to of United Defense and Armor Holdings provide improved protection. The result gave the company a portfolio of busi- was that for years there were relatively nesses that provide state and local police few programs, and those programs that forces with mobile and protection sys- moved forward were often troubled. tems such as armor, vests and helmets. Since then new opportunities are in- Finmeccanica’s purchase of DRS creasing. In December the Coast Guard Technologies was based in part on its in- received its first UAV, a maritime variant terest in combining the border security of the General Atomics Aeronautical capabilities associated with DRS’ con- Systems’ Predator B; the service is also tracts in Egypt and Jordan, and its own studying the possibility of using Northrop capabilities involving Italian and Libyan Grumman’s Fire Scout for its unmanned contracts. vertical lift requirement. American Euro-

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copter LLC, a subsidiary of EADS North ness opportunity. The European Union Generally the U.S. prime contractors America, won a U.S. Customs and Bor- is helping to pay for improved security have focused on the U.S. market. For der Protection contract in July 2008 for along its expanded Eastern European Lockheed Martin, the world’s largest 17 AS350B3 helicopters. With options, borders. Poland and Romania, which defense contractor, the focus is on infor- the contract could be worth more than have long borders with the former Soviet mation technology, aircraft and biomet- $150 million to deliver 50 AS350BE Union, have offered attractive opportu- rics. The company has been developing helicopters over five years. nities. The Middle East has become a a state-of-the-art biometrics system for Now ambitious goals also have been particularly active area, with Jordan, the FBI’s Next Generation Identification put in place. In 2007 Congress imposed Libya, Egypt, Qatar and Saudi Arabia System under a 10-year, $1-billion con- a requirement that DHS achieve 100% awarding contracts for border security tract. The program increases the size of scanning of U.S.-bound maritime cargo over the past several years. the bureau’s database and includes fa- containers by 2012. While that require- Immigration management is another cial, iris and palm print recognition. ment is unlikely to be met by then, it is strong international growth area. Ray- Northrop Grumman is involved in indicative of national efforts to devote re- theon won the U.K.’s e-Borders contract the homeland security areas of informa- sources to reshaping homeland security. in November 2007. Under this program tion technology, patrol ships, and tech- This market area is not only large it received a £650-million contract to put nical services. In addition, its Remotec and growing but also relatively open. In in place a system to track travelers to the subsidiary is a major provider of robotic the U.S., the “buy America” provisions U.K., including ex amining possible links products for bomb disposal and SWAT that restrict foreign competitors’ ability to to high-risk individuals or those already (special weapons and tactics) teams. participate in many areas of the defense on terrorist watch lists. Raytheon is hold- General Dynamics is building the market are lacking in homeland security. ing discussions with other governments multibillion-dollar, 15-year Integrated That gives foreign companies consider- on putting a similar system in place. Wireless Network to implement inter- able potential to penetrate the market. operable wireless communications Europe’s defense and aerospace Specialty areas services to support the Departments of prime contractors have also seen the With the opportunities now in homeland Justice, Homeland Security and Treas- success of their efforts to penetrate the security, virtually all major defense and ury. It is also developing and maintain- U.S. defense market. BAE Systems aerospace prime contractors have estab- ing the Homeland Security Information kicked off the process with a series of ac- lished their areas of specific expertise. Network Next Generation, a national quisitions that began in 2000. Other Raytheon, which does about $1 billion information sharing platform for sensi- U.K. companies followed a similar acqui- annually in this business, half of it inter- tive information. sition strategy with the result that many national, has a broad portfolio in the Boeing, whose footprint is among U.K. defense companies, such as BAE area. Its international business, which the most limited, is focusing on its work Systems, Cobham and Ultra, derive sub- also includes critical infrastructure pro- as prime contractor for the SBInet, a stantially more income from the U.S. de- tection, is growing more rapidly than its U.S. border security program. fense market than from their home U.K. domestic business, accounting for most Many European prime contractors market. Continental European manufac- of its estimated $1.3 billion in homeland are developing their own niches. BAE turers such as Finmeccanica have re- security contract bookings in 2009. Systems, the largest European defense cently begun following a similar strategy. contractor, has established growth in European contractors are building on SBInet is a virtual U.S. border fence. homeland security as a strategic goal. the experience they acquired in develop- Thus the company has built up strong ing their market position in aerospace positions in counterthreat management, and defense. They are applying those information technology, and mobility same techniques to build a domestic and protection systems for police forces. presence in homeland security. For U.S. EADS, Europe’s largest aerospace and European contractors, this area has contractor, showed the importance it is the added appeal of being closely related placing on the sector by making its only to core defense companies’ core skills in major acquisition in the U.S., purchasing dealing with a government customer and homeland security contractor Plant in doing systems integration. CML. That follows three acquisitions in Europe in professional mobile radio and Other international markets maritime security since 2006. Through The attractiveness of the homeland secu- its Eurocopter subsidiary, EADS also rity market is not limited to the U.S. In- provides helicopters to the DHS. The ternational markets are growing rapidly company now estimates it has approxi- in areas that include airport and port se- mately €900 million of homeland secu- curity as well as critical infrastructure rity bu siness, triple its level in 2000. protection. Philip Finnegan Border security is booming as a busi- Teal Group

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Hearts in free fall

WE HAVE ALL SEEN VIDEO OF ASTRONAUTS as Integrated Cardiovascular. mine whether [the heart] scars or gets in- drifting and gliding gracefully around in- We know that astronauts lose heart filtrated by fat.” side the ISS like fish in an aquarium. It mass and exercise capacity when they Echocardiograms use high-pitched looks so relaxing. Enjoyable as it ap- are in microgravity for a long time,” says sound waves that are picked up as they pears, however, there is a down side to NASA Johnson’s Julie Robinson, ISS reflect off different parts of the heart. all that freefalling. program scientist. “We suspect that this These echoes are turned into a moving “When astronauts land back on could lead to impaired heart function, picture, allowing researchers to watch a Earth after a long time in space, not only which could cause low blood pressure movie of the heart in action as blood is their vestibular system mixed up and and even fainting when astronauts get flows through it. By looking at such their kinesthetic sense thrown off,” says back to gravity. But we need detailed in- movies before, during and after space- Benjamin Levine of the University of formation. In the future, astronauts will flight, the team can discern mechanical Texas Southwestern Medical Center, spend longer and longer [times] in space, changes that happen in a person’s heart “but also their bones and muscles have and even live and work on the Moon and after he or she is away from Earth’s deteriorated.” Mars. We want to know exactly how gravity for a long time. With the MRI, space living will affect their hearts and they can look at detailed computer im- Critical mass? heart function.” ages of the heart tissues to pinpoint ex- In space, even more than on Earth, the Levine is a principal investigator for actly what kind of atrophy occurs. phrase “use it or lose it” applies. The hu- the experiment, along with Michael The researchers will also try to deter- man body and all its parts need to work Bungo of the University of Texas Health mine whether the heart’s deterioration is to remain vital. Bones must bear weight Science Center at Houston. The two simply a matter of size—as with weight- to keep their density and strength. Mus- have enlisted the support of several lifters who lose muscle mass if they stop cles need to push or pull against resist- other cardiovascular experts to conduct lifting weights—or if the heart scars and ance to stay in shape; without work they this research—the most comprehensive cells die. waste away. and advanced study of its kind to date. In addition, the team is studying the Is this also true of our most critical “We are investigating how, how effects of heart atrophy on crewmem- muscle, the human heart? To find out, much, and how fast deterioration occurs bers’ ability to exercise and on the likeli- NASA is launching a new study known in the heart during long-duration space hood of their developing unusual heart travel,” says Levine. rhythms, both on the station and after The space station crew, which has they return to Earth. The researchers Astronaut Clay Anderson floats through the Unity node of the ISS. recently increased to six, will help Levine will also look closely at other cardiovas- and his team find answers by serving as cular issues, such as how blood pressure subjects for Integrated Cardiovascular. responds to the reintroduction of gravity The experiment will last for over two at the levels experienced on Earth, the years—long enough to gather plenty of Moon and Mars. data on 12 different astronauts before, “All of the results will help us fine- during, and after their stints in space. tune exercise protocols for the space sta- “We are incorporating the most so- tion crew,” Robinson says. “We will also phisticated tools ever used in such an ex- learn what to look at in astronauts’ periment to look at the heart and its hearts before we send them to, say, chambers and valves,” Levine notes. Mars. We will identify a set of risk factors “This is the first investigation ever to use that can help flight surgeons determine advanced echo-Doppler techniques to the best candidates for long missions.” follow the structure and function of the Levine adds, “We may, however, heart during long periods in space and show that the heart does just fine in confirm findings by using advanced mag- space, and that the strategies now used netic resonance imaging tools on the to keep astronauts in shape are adequate ground. For example, we are using an to keep the heart functioning normally echocardiogram to determine how heart and in good health. If so, flight surgeons muscle atrophy influences the way the can turn their attention instead to other heart relaxes and fills, and an MRI to potentially critical problems, such as quantify this atrophy precisely and deter- bone loss or radiation exposure.”

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Atrophy and arrhythmia The study’s results will also have the im- portant benefit of helping researchers develop preventive and rehabilitative regimens for people on Earth. “The information we get from these experiments will be relevant for patients after long-term bed rest or other physical activity restrictions, as well as for pa- tients with congestive heart failure, heart disease and even normal aging.” Cardiac atrophy, a decrease in the size of the heart muscle, appears to de- velop during spaceflight or its ground- based analog (bed rest), leading to dia- stolic dysfunction (abnormal left ventric- ular function in the heart) and orthostatic Astronaut Cady Coleman performs a remotely guided echocardiogram on a test subject using Integrated hypotension (a drop in blood pressure Cardiovascular protocols, while Betty Chen, a training coordinator, observes. upon standing). Such atrophy also may be a potential mechanism for the cardiac ceptibility, both on the station and fol- Earth. During the tests, they will monitor arrhythmias (irregular heart rhythms) lowin g return to Earth. each subject’s heart rate and blood pres- identified in some crewmembers after Using MRI, the Integrated Cardiovas- sure and measure blood flow from the long-duration exposure to microgravity cular study will determine the magnitude heart with an echocardiogram. All these aboard the Mir space station. of left and right ventricular atrophy asso- functions will be monitored and meas- Recent investigations have suggested ciated with long-duration spaceflight and ured during exercise as well, both before that cardiac atrophy may be progressive, will then relate this atrophy to measures and after flight, to determine the sub- without a clear plateau over at least 12 of physical activity and cardiac work in jects’ reaction to the stress. weeks of bed rest, and thus may be a sig- flight. In addition, it will use ultrasound to Electrocardiograms will be taken on nificant limiting factor for extended-dura- determine the time course and pattern several occasions during the study and tion space exploration missions. This of the progression of cardiac atrophy in will last up to 48 hr at a time. These study will quantify the extent, time course flight. The study will also determine the recordings will be concurrent with con- and clinical significance of cardiac atro- functional importance of cardiac atrophy tinuous measurements of blood pressure phy and identify its mechanisms. The for cardiac diastolic function and the reg- and activity (using Actiwatches worn at functional consequences of this atrophy ulation of stroke volume (the volume of the waist and ankle) to estimate the also will be determined for cardiac filling blood pumped by the heart in one con- amount of work the heart is doing daily dynamics, orthostatic tolerance under traction) during gravitational transitions on Earth and in space. both normal (Earth) gravity and fractional and will identify changes in ventricular gravity (Mars and the Moon) conditions, conduction, depolarization and repolar- vvv exercise tolerance and arrhythmia sus- ization during and after long-duration Astronauts as a group are perhaps as spaceflight. It will then relate these to healthy and fit as is humanly possible. changes in heart mass and morphology But to the risks of bone loss and muscle NASA connection (shape and form). weakness from prolonged spaceflight This experiment is supported entirely are now added concerns about potential through NASA funding mechanisms using risks to the heart. grants to the University of Texas Southwest- Taking measurements ern Medical Center and the University of The researchers will use echocardiogra- Astronauts take medication and per- Texas Health Science Center at Houston, with phy before, during and after spaceflight, form exercises to counter the effects of on-site civil service and contractor support at and MRI before and after. In addition, weightlessness. This study will try to de- NASA Johnson. The study’s full name is Car- they will use a special imaging technique termine the extent of the effects of diac Atrophy and Diastolic Dysfunction Dur- called magnetic resonance spectroscopy weightlessness on their hearts and dis- ing and After Long Duration Spaceflight: to quantify the amount of fat in the sub- cover what steps are needed to prevent Functional Consequences for Orthostatic In- jects’ hearts. damage. And studies like this may also tolerance, Exercise Capability and Risk for Before and after flight, they will tilt result one day in better cardiac health for Cardiac Arrhythmias (Integrated Cardiovascu- the subjects on a table at angles to ap- those of us here on Earth as well. lar). The payload developer is the NASA proximate various levels of gravity—from Johnson Human Research Program. Edward D.Flinn lunar levels to those experienced on [email protected]

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China’sshortmarchto

hina’s aerospace industry has some way to Cgo before it can match the technical ca- pabilities and manufacturing capacity of North America or Europe. But it is catching up fast. In November 2009 the deputy com- mander of the Chinese PLAAF (Peo- ple’s Liberation Army Air Force), Ho Weirong, announced in a television interview that the air force would be operating a fifth-generation fighter within eight to 10 years. This was the fifth new JF-17 Chinese aerospace program to emerge last year. The CO- MAC C919 190-seat airliner was launched in March 2009, with an in-service date of 2020. The KJ-2000 AWACS aircraft and Xi’an ASN-207 tactical unmanned air system were officially unveiled at the October military parade in Beijing to celebrate the 60th anniversary of the founding of the Peo- ple’s Republic. A 200-tonne-class military air- lifter was also due to make its first appearance before the end of the year. Meanwhile, the China Satellite Navigation Project Center planned to launch four BeiDou-2 (Compass) satellites during 2009, as part of a program to develop a 12-satellite regional capability by 2012 and a full global capability of 30 medium Earth orbit and five geosynchronous Earth orbit satellites by 2020 at the latest. With activities ranging from new military and commercial aircraft China’s headlong rush into the global programs to satellite and other space projects,China is on its way aerospace market is un- to becoming a significant player in the aerospace arena,where precedented. Within 20 years it will have trans- it has long trailed the West.The growing number of alliances formed itself from a cus- tomer to a competitor in it is forming with Western companies is accelerating the trend and almost every area of the enabling faster advancement of its technologies. market—from front-line fighters to helicopters, unmanned air vehicles to missiles, military transport aircraft to airlin- ers. But as the capability gap narrows, will by Philip Butterworth-Hayes China really be able to compete on equal Contributing writer terms with the U.S. and Europe, in both the

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aerospaceautonomy

civil and military sectors? And how should Western companies respond to an emerging new aerospace power that offers as many threats as opportunities?

More than technology Building a competitive aerospace industry al- most from scratch requires more than techni- cal know-how. It takes a profound under- standing of market demand and an industrial J-10 base that encompasses lean manufacturing and Six Sigma principles, a knowledge of the global supply chain (for both manufacturing and support), and an ability to integrate com- plex structures and systems via a global net- Realigning with markets work of niche suppliers. There are some holes Over the past 18 months China has been re- in China’s aerospace business portfolio, espe- structuring its aerospace sector to align more cially in areas such as competitive engine, closely its specialist manufacturing industries avionics, and aircraft system design capabili- with the markets they serve. ties. And in some areas, such as business jets, In late 2008 the Chinese government an- there is hardly a Chinese presence at all. But nounced the remerger of AVIC I and AVIC II, China has proved adept at attracting Western the two Aviation Industries of China organiza- suppliers to set up joint ventures that provide tions separated in 1999. AVIC I, comprising Chinese manufacturers with enough knowl- 47 manufacturing companies, 31 research in- edge to kick-start an indigenous capability stitutes, and 22 other aviation support com- very quickly. panies, made larger aircraft and engines—in- Having acquired the basic knowledge cluding fighter aircraft, turbofan engines, base to produce aircraft such as the Chengdu air-to-air missiles, the ARJ 21, and the 50- J-10 and the JF-17—with performances re- seater turboprop MA60 airliner. AVIC II made putedly on a par with an early-generation military and commercial helicopters along F-16—and the Airbus A320, produced under with the 50-seater ERJ 145. license by the Harbin Aircraft Industry Group (HAIG), China’s aerospace industry is now gearing up to manufacture products that it hopes will soon outperform those in the West. KJ-2000 “The Chinese are a generation behind in aircraft technology, but they are catching up very quickly,” says London-based aerospace analyst Paul Beaver. “They have the capabil- ity to evolve their electronics technology at a far faster rate than anywhere else in the world, helped by the 300,000 new engineers coming into the market every year. The JF-17 is exceptionally interesting—the Pakistani ver- sion has Western avionics and weapon sys- tems, and this makes it a very exportable product for countries wanting an aircraft with an F-16 Block 30 performance.”

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west Beijing. Other AVIC specialist companies have been developed to support general aviation and military transporter businesses.

Funding sources and airliner profits Part of the funding for the new enterprises has come from a 176-billion-yuan ($25.8-billion) credit agree- ment signed in January C919 2009 with 10 Chinese banks, including Industrial and Commercial Bank of In 2009 AVIC set up a number of semi- China, China Construction Bank, and China independent subsidiaries to build and market CITIC (China International Trust and Invest- the new generation of aircraft under develop- ment) Bank. Chinese banks are playing an in- ment. The defense branch was set up in Bei- creasingly important role in funding major jing, with reported assets of around $7.3 bil- global aerospace deals. In November 2009, lion, to develop new capabilities in areas such for example, Boeing signed aircraft leasing as unmanned air systems (UAS) and to market agreements with China Construction Bank fast jets such as the J-10 and JF-15 alongside and CDB Leasing for up to 25 billion yuan trainers like the L-15 Falcon. The division ($3.7 billion) in financing and leasing for Boe- manages 10 assembly plants and research in- ing aircraft. stitutes across China. In terms of turnover, by the far the largest Civil aircraft manufacturing has been de- aerospace sector Chinese companies have volved to the Commercial Aircraft Corpora- targeted is the airliner market. It has taken tion of China (COMAC), based in Shanghai, to China just 25 years to reach a stage where its manage development of the C919 190-seat indigenous products are in the market, com- airliner and the C regional jet. COMAC busi- peting with Western companies. It has nesses include AVIC I Commercial Aircraft, achieved this extraordinary rate of growth Shanghai Aircraft, and First Aircraft Institute. through a three-pronged strategy of licensed An AVIC helicopter company has been assembly of increasingly complex Western air- set up in Tianjin Binhai New Area, with the craft, competitive bids for structures and com- Tianjin municipal government holding a 31% ponent contracts on Boeing and Airbus air- stake in the company. A new aviation engine craft and, finally, strategic alliances with company, also producing composite materi- Western manufacturers, leading to joint ven- als, also has been started in an aerospace clus- tures in China. ter zone near Beijing Capital International Air- The first licensed assembly deal was the port. An AVIC airborne systems company has 1985 agreement with McDonnell Douglas to been established in the Zhongguancun Avia- assemble MD-80s in Shanghai. The aircraft ti on Science Park of Haidian district in north- were assembled from kits, and 35 were pro- duced between 1985 and 1994. A follow-on contract that substantially increased Chinese content was signed in 1992 to produce 40 MD-80/MD-90s, but this was amended in 1994 to produce 40 MD-90s, and again in 1998 when McDonnell Douglas merged with Boeing, which reduced the number of MD- 90s produced in China to just two. Then, in 2002, AVIC II and Brazil’s Embraer formed a joint venture to build 50-seat Embraer EMB- 145 regional jets in Harbin. At the end of 2009 it was reported that the Harbin plant might also assemble 106-seat EMB-190 jets. ARJ-21 Harbin is the center of an Airbus narrowbody

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Joint ventures in China There have been significant joint ventures established in China over the past of a Cooperation Framework Agreement between AVIC II and Eurocopter few years with aerospace companies in Europe, Canada, Brazil, and the U.S. for a joint helicopter venture. Eurocopter and the former AVIC II have been Airbus China opened its Beijing office in 1990. The Airbus Beijing training cooperating for more than 25 years, in particular with the Z9, a Dauphin center was set up jointly with China Aviation Supplies Import & Export in made in China, and the EC120, also manufactured in China, by Harbin Aircraft 1998, while nearby Airbus has set up a customer support center that stocks Industries. some 25,000 spare parts. The Airbus Tianjin assembly line opened on In 2003,DSEA , Eurocopter’s parent company, took a 5% share in the September 28, 2008, producing A320 aircraft. It is a joint venture between AviChina enterprise. Airbus and a Chinese consortium of Tianjin Free Trade Zone and AVIC. ABEC, The former AVIC II, through its subsidiaries Changhe Aircraft Industries the Airbus (Beijing) Engineering Center, opened in early 2006 and is a joint and Shanghai Xinshen Aviation Industry Investment and Development, venture between Airbus and AVIC, designing A350 XWB systems. In addition, recently joined Shanghai Sikorsky as a shareholder. The company was Airbus signed a contract in January 2009 with Chinese partners, creating a established in 2003 by Sikorsky and Shanghai Little Eagle to build civil joint venture to make carbon composite parts for its A350 XWB and A320 helicopter sales and support in China. aircraft. Airbus’ Chinese business will hold a 20% stake in the joint venture, The Harbin aerospace cluster houses the only assembly plant for the based in Harbin, and China’s Harbin Aircraft Industry Group will hold a further Embr aer ERJ-145; Embraer moved ERJ-145 production to Harbin as part of 50% stake, while other local players HAI, AviChina, and HELI will each own a joint venture with AVIC II in 2004. 10%. The new plant was ready for operations by in late 2009. Airbus said the During the September 2009 Asian Aerospace show Safran signed a value of its partnership with the Chinese aviation industry is expected to be framework agreement with AVIC for work on the aircraft, as did Nexcelle— near $200 million a year this year and $450 million in 2015. a joint venture company created by GE’s Middle River Aircraft Systems and In June 2007 Boeing contracted a package of work for its range of Boeing Aircelle, a Safran group company to supply nacelles. 737NG, Boeing 747-8, and Boeing 787 aircraft valued at about $500 million. In November 2009 Honeywell opened its China Aerospace Academy in Chinese companies, for the first time, are building flaps, ailerons, and spoilers Shanghai to train aerospace engineers. The academy is located at Honeywell’s for Boeing aircraft. According to the company, “Boeing supplier partners Shanghai Learning Center in Pudong. have active supplier contracts with China aviation industry valued at well over Alcoa and COMAC have set up a joint venture technology cooperation US$2.5 billion.” Boeing is one of the main partners, with Hexcel and AVIC, in agreement to examine the use of advanced aluminium structural concepts, BHA Aero Composites in Tianjin, producing secondary composite structures designs, and alloys for the 190-seat aircraft. and interior parts. First deliveries started in 2002. BHA customers include General Electric recently reached an agreement with AVIC to set up a Boeing, Hexcel, Fisher, and Goodrich. It has over 570 employees. joint venture to provide avionics systems for the global airliner market; Fokker-Elmo, working with Boeing Electrical System Responsibility Center, both GE and AVIC will each hold 50% of the venture. According to Boeing, delivers 99 part numbers to the Boeing 737-600, -700, -800, and -900 programs its suppliers’ Chinese aerospace business includes the following activities: via a new plant in Langfang, Hebei Province, where it has 504 employees •General Electric procurement from Harbin, Shanghai, Xi’an, Sichuan, working on Boeing, Pratt & Whitney, and other companies’ electrical products. Suzhou, Guizhou, and Shenyang. The General Electric Suzhou plant makes Messier-Dowty set up a plant at Suzhou for landing gear components. engine parts and flight controls. Bombardier’s new CSeries regional jet is being developed in conjunction •Goodrich contracted the CF34 fan cowl in 2008 to BHA. Hongdu Aviation with Shenyang Aircraft, which will supply the fuselage, center wing box, and in Nanchang builds 787 part kits for the 787 nacelle. doors. During the 2007 Paris Air Show the former AVIC I signed a risk- and •Parker Hannifin has a machining joint venture with Jincheng, Shanghai revenue-sharing deal with Bombardier to develop the ARJ21-900, a 105-seat Qi Yi Automotive, and Sic huan Golden Dragon Machine. regional jet. The former AVIC I and Bombardier Aerospace have a long- •Pratt & Whitney sources engine components from Xi’an and Chengdu. standing strategic agreement that includes AVIC I’s Xian unit manufacturing •Primus International has built an aircraft components factory in Suzhou. com ponents for the Bombardier 415 and SAC unit supplying components for •Rolls-Royce procures from several locations in China, including Xi’an, the Q-Series aircraft. Shenyang. In October 2004 the French and Chinese presidents attended the signing •Snecma has a CFM56 engine blade joint venture in Guiyang.

assembly plant as well; the first Harbin-assem- bled A320 flew on May 18, 2009.

Growth of joint ventures In parallel with the license assembly program, Chinese companies have been gradually build- ing up their work share on Airbus and Boeing programs. Led by Chengdu Aircraft, HAIG, Shanghai Aviation Industries Group, Shen- yang Commercial Aircraft, and X’ian Aircraft, Chinese firms have evolved their product range from relatively simple structures through to doors and, most recently, complex composite parts. The new BHA plant oper- ated by Chinese companies with Hexcel and Boeing, for example, produces complex com- MA-600 posite panels and parts for interior and exte-

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CHINESE SUPPLIERS TO MAJOR NEW AIRLINER PROGRAMS Supplier Work package Aircraft type Comments BHA Aero Composite panels Boeing 737-600, -700, Flight deck, close out panels, dorsal fin, wing-to-body fairing, cover Composites and parts -800, -900 panels, wing fixed trailing edge, wing fixed leading edge, interior panels Composite panels, Boeing 747-8 door liners, fixed trailing edge Wing fixed trailing Boeing 767 edges and dry bay barriers, empennage panels Wing fixed trailing Boeing 777 edges and dry bay barriers, empennage panels, flight deck interior panels Chengdu Aircraft Rear passenger door Airbus A318/A319/ Corporation and nose section parts A319CJ/A320/A321 Rear passenger door Airbus A330/A340 and nose section parts Forward entry doors, Boeing 737-600, -700, Contracted in 2005.From 2008 the contract is with Spirit. over wing exit doors -800, -900 Aileron and spoilers Boeing 747-8 Contracted in 2007.First delivery 2009. Horizontal stabilizer Boeing 747-8 Contracted in 2007 and subassemblies Composite rudder Boeing 787 Part of a $600-million contract announced in June 2005 by Boeing to a group of Chinese suppliers Harbin Aircraft Composite material Airbus A350 XWB The two companies have established a manufacturing center, Industry Group parts and components now in operation, that is an equity joint venture enterprise, with HAIG holding an 80% stake and Airbus owning a 20% stake.According to the contract, the center will manufacture composite materials parts and components for the Airbus A320 family and participate in the industrialization and serial production of Airbus A350 XWB work packages. Hafei Company Wing-to-body fairing Boeing 787 The company is affiliated to the Chengdu Aircraft Industrial panels Group based in Sichuan Province, China.Hafei’s capabilities include composite and sheet metal manufacturing, numerically controlled machining, tooling design and production, and complex structure assembly and integration. Contract signed 2005. Hong Yuan Aviation Titanium forging parts Airbus A318/A319/ Forging & Casting to mount engines A319CJ/A320/A321 (HYFC) onto wings Titanium forgings Boeing 747-8 There are 12 forgings for each Boeing 747.Deliveries began in 1984. Contract signed in 1995. Shanghai Aviation Horizontal stabilizers Boeing 737-600, -700, Industries Group -800, -900 (SAIC) Parts for vertical fin, Boeing 737-600, -700, SAIC, XAC, and BHA are cooperating on this contract. horizontal stabilizer -800, -900 Shenyang Aft fuselage Boeing 737-600, -700, Originally contracted for 1996/2001, expanded to include“Texas Commercial subassemblies -800, -900 Star”(November 2004), contracted with Spirit, expanded to full aft Aircraft section 48 (2007) See comment Bombardier C Series SAC is a risk-sharing partner in the design, manufacture, assembling, and testing of the aircraft’s fuselage.The contract follows a June 2007 memorandum of understanding on the C Series.Just over 10% of the C Series aircraft will be manufactured in China by Shenyang Aircraft. Shenyang also supplies the empennage, as well as the aft and forward fuselage sections for Bombardier’s Q400 turboprop airliner. Various components Bombardier Shenyang Aircraft (part of AVIC-I) and Stork Aerospace signed a con- Dash 8 Q400 tract in 2005 for the machining of components for the Gulfstream G450,the G500,and the G550.The order relates to components for the aircraft that were formerly produced elsewhere. X’ian Aircraft Access doors Airbus A318/A319/ A319CJ/A320/A321 Electronic bay doors, Airbus A330/A340 wing fixed trailing edges Fuselage section 16 ATR 42-500/72-500/600 Vertical fin Boeing 737-600, -700, -800, -900 Fixed trailing edge Boeing 747-8 Contract signed in 2007, first delivery 2008, and inboard flaps wing ribs contracted in 2007, first delivery in 2009

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A-320 A tale of two helicopters The EC175 program was launched on December 5, 2005. The helicopter was developed in cooperation with Chinese industry in just four years, thanks to innovative new computing tools that offer major time savings. The work teams, separated by some 10,000 km, have been working together under the aegis of the French and Chinese governments. Their cooperation has been exemplary, and has benefitted from 30 years of close ties between the partners, first thr ough the Dauphin and then through the EC120. During the develop- ment phase, an average of 50 Chinese employees joined their Eurocopter colleagues in France to define the helicopter's characteristics. Now it’s the turn of Eurocopter’s employees to reciprocate, and a staff of 30 is cur- rently on permanent assignment in China to assist the teams with design, quality, produc- tion and procurement work. The development and industri- alization work has been equally split between Euro- rior structures. This expertise has allowed Chi- copter and AVIC according to nese concerns to widen their customer base the specialties of each com- from airframers such as Airbus, Boeing, Bom- pany. Two different helicopters will result from the common bardier, and Sikorsky to prime contractors like platform: The EC175, manufac- Spirit and Fokker-Elmo. tured, sold and maintained by At the same time, the number of joint Eurocopter in Marignane, and ventures between Western companies and the Z15, manufactured, sold Z-15 Chinese concerns, based in China, has mush- and maintained by the AVIC roomed over the past two years. Group. It is not hard to see why. According to Airbus’ September 2009 Global Market Fore- cast, China’s aviation market will see an an- made available to a wider audience and will nual increase of 7.9% in the next 20 years, therefore be a direct competitor to Airbus and becoming the world’s second fastest growing Boeing in the most lucrative area of the mar- market after India. The Asia Pacific market, ket. How will it fare? including China and India, is forecast to ac- “Given that both Boeing and Airbus are count for 31% of all global demand by 2027. improving the efficiency rate of their current AVIC is predicting that in the next 20 years models by around 1% a year—in terms of fuel China will need 3,815 airliners, comprising burn—Chinese companies have a tough task,” 2,822 aircraft of 100 seats or more and 993 says Ian Lowden, managing director of U.K. regional jets. aviation consultants RDG Solutions. “The cur- According to the Center for Asia Pacific rent designs for the C919 look fairly conserva- Aviation, passenger numbers have been grow- tive, and there is likely to be a high percentage ing at over 10% a year in China (2009 meas- of metal on the aircraft, rather than lighter ured against 2008) at a time when most areas composites. However, if timing of the launch of the world have seen a decline. can be managed so COMAC has access to new engine technology such as the geared tur- COMAC’s progress bofan—which could provide an immediate In the civil market, the litmus test for whether 10% minimum improvement in fuel burn over China’s aerospace capabilities really have current designs—and Boeing and Airbus delay reached those of the West will be the success further their narrowbody replacement pro- of the COMAC 919. According to the current grams, it seems that there could well be a schedule, the 190-seat aircraft will be on the niche in the global market for this aircraft.” market by 2020; concept design and research will be completed in 2010, and production will start in 2014. The C919 is being developed as a com- petitor to the Airbus A320 and Boeing 737s and their successor programs. It is the most ambitious Chinese civil aviation program to date; the aim is to produce an aircraft that is 15-20% cheaper to operate, in terms of direct operating costs, than the current A320s and 737s. While the aircraft is aimed primarily at the Chinese domestic market it will also be K-8 Trainer

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Labor and raw material costs are lower in wire and digital cockpit systems and two China than in the West, but others, such as Ukrainian-built Ivchenko Progress AI-222K- transport and oil costs, are similar. COMAC 25F turbojets, giving it a maximum speed of will have cut its project management teeth on Mach 1.4. Other new export aircraft featured the ARJ-21, a 90-seat regional jet that took to on the AVIC exhibition stand included the the skies for the first time in November 2008. FTC-2000 supersonic trainer, the K-8 Kara- The ARJ-21 is very much a joint Chinese- korum jet trainer, the Z-11 multipurpose light North American effort. The core design is helicopter, and the JF-17. based on an MD-80 configuration. Canada’s All of these aircraft are aimed at countries Bombardier is a lead partner, and most of the in Africa, the Middle East, South America, main systems have been sourced from U.S. and Southeast Asia , which have difficulty ac- companies—the flight deck comprises Rock- cessing U.S. and European technologies. well Collins displays and avionics; Honeywell But their development also reflects a fun- is providing the fly-by-wire flight control sys- damental change in direction for China’s own tem, General Electric the CF34-10A engines, military strategic thinking. China’s military and Parker Aerospace the fuel systems. forces are undergoing a rapid transformation, At the end of 2009 COMAC reported 90 from a manpower-intensive force set up pri- orders for the aircraft, mainly by domestic marily for defensive operations to a smaller, Chinese airlines. But there are also orders for more flexible force with more offensive capa- two aircraft from Lao Airlines of Laos, and for bilities. For the PLAAF this has meant reduc- five, with options for 20 more, from GE Com- ing reliance on large numbers of Soviet air- mercial Aviation Services, the U.S./Irish leas- craft and developing a smaller air force based ing company. on indigenous technologies, capable of net- work-enabled operations. New aircraft reflect military shift So the last few years have seen the Another recent export success for China has development of new AWACS, air-to-air re- been the sale of Chengdu Aircraft Industries fueling, and UAS. China has throttled back its JF-17 and J-10 fighters to Pakistan. The reliance on Russian platforms—though it pur- agreement, announced in March 2009, will chased 24 Sukhoi SU-30-MK2s in 2004 and see 42 JF-17 aircraft jointly produced in Pak- still depends on Russian and Ukrainian en- istan and China and exports of J-10s to Pak- gine technology for many of its military pro- istan from China, pro bably starting in 2014. grams—investing instead in Chinese military Pakistan could buy up to 150 JF-17s technologies that do more than just mimic equipped with Western avionics and weapon Western models. systems. The JF-17 and J-10 are entering the AVIC is aiming the JF-17 and J-10 at PLAAF in increasing numbers, the Shaanxi Y- other export markets. Also in the planning 9 medium-range military transport—a C-130J stages is the J-10B, an export version of the equivalent—is currently under development. In J-10 with upgraded avionics and weapon sys- the helicopter sector the Zhi-15 (Z-15)—a tems. Another new Chinese military export 6,000-kg-class transport helicopter jointly de- hope is the Hongdu Aviation Industry Group’s veloped by HAIG and Europe’s Eurocopter— advanced jet trainer, which was displayed for is due to enter military service around 2012— the first time publicly outside China at the No- and the Z-10, an attack helicopter, is under vember 2009 Dubai Air Show. Aimed at ad- development by Changhe Aircraft Indust ries. vanced training, lead-in training, and close air In June 2009 over 100 aircraft—including air- support markets, the aircraft features fly-by- to-air refueling and AWACS aircraft—took part in an exercise to demonstrate new, long- range strike capabilities based on indigenously built platforms. The next phase of develop- ment will be to increase networking capabili- ties for air- and space-based operations, ac- cording to PLAAF Commander Xu Qiliang, speaking to the official Xinhua News Agency at the start of November 2009. The sight of Xi’an ASN-207 tactical re- connaissance UAVs within the October 2009 Beijing parade of military vehicles suggests ASN-207 these assets are already being integrated

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within the PLA’s operational structure—the 2008; if the planned spacecraft docking sys- next stage will be the development of Chi- tems work this year as intended, China will nese-built high-altitude, long-endurance UAVs launch a space lab in 2012, around the time it and unmanned combat air vehicles (UCAVs). plans to put an astronaut on the Moon. Other The appearance of several concepts for both work is under way to develop more capable at the 2006 Zhuhai air show—including a Earth observation assets—and, based on the stealthy Anjian UCAV Shenyang—suggests remarks of PLAAF Commander Xu Qiliang in this is now an area of some priority for the na- November, a greater military capability. tion’s aerospace companies. vvv Space projects The speed with which China has acquired this To develop further a network-enabled military broad range of aerospace capabilities is re- capability, China is also investing heavily in markable. At the current rate of progress it is new space systems. likely that in most sectors China will be able to Its heavy-load launcher ChangZheng 5 compete on broadly equal terms with the (Long March 5) is due to be test flown in West by 2020, if not before. During the past 2014, and its most capable form will be able 18 months it is China’s banks and Chinese to lift payloads of up to 25,000 kg to LEO or aircraft orders that have provided vital support 14,000 kg to GTO. This year more satellites to civil aviation industries of the U.S. and Eu- will be added to the BeiDou network until it rope; China is a market that can simply no provides a global satellite navigation capability longer be ignored. The real issue for aero- between 2015 and 2020. space concerns in the West now is to develop In 2003 China launched its first manned a framework in which competition, at least for spacecraft, ShenZhou 5, followed by other civil aircraft orders, can develop along com- manned spaceflight missions in 2005 and monly agreed lines.

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New capabilities for GPS II/III

GPS III (Increment A)

While the Global Positioning System seems “Unlike a lot of other satellite constella- ubiquitous today, nearly two decades elapsed tions, GPS affects a tremendous number of between the launch of the first experimental users, so there is a constant vigilance on the GPS satellite and the 1995 declaration of a part of the Air Force to ensure any changes fully operational system for military and civil- made do not disrupt those users,” says Lock- ian use. Since then, GPS satellites have been heed Martin GPS III program director David J. upgraded constantly, with each new genera- Podlesney. “They go through great pains to tion providing greater power and precision. make sure they accommodate all end users The system has grown from a minimum con- worldwide. stellation of 24 spacecraft to the 30 in orbit “From originally looking at [military] navi- today, and plans call for maint aining the cur- gation requirements, GPS today has trans- rent number. formed into a system where the primary use is In some ways, the evolution of GPS re- the civil timing signal, and most navigation sembles that of the Internet. What began as users are commercial. This new group, which an Air Force positioning, navigation, and tim- was not originally imagined, is now the biggest ing (PNT) program for the military has ex- component of the GPS user community, and panded so widely that civilian applications the military is really the smallest user.” now outnumber military, and the system is It remains a military system at heart, how- used more for timing than for navigation. ever, under control of the GPS Wing of the Air From turn-by-turn driving directions to pin- Force Space Command Space and Missile pointing individual whales at sea to time sig- Systems Center (SMC). And although the U.S. nals for bank ATM machines, GPS applica- government has repeatedly assured civilian by J.R.Wilson tions have seen a significant transformation, and commercial users throughout the world Contributing writer especially in the past decade. the system will not be degraded to nonmilitary

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Like the Internet,GPS has undergone a transformation never envisioned when it was created.Although more vital than ever to the military,the system now has more civil than military users. If glitches and potential delays can be averted,new satellites will soon provide even greater capabilities.

users (as it originally was), nor arbitrarily shut ica, adding that the Block III security architec- off for military reasons, this subject has re- ture beyond SAASM is called PRONAV (pro- mained an issue blocking full acceptance. tection of navigation). “The PRONAV security architecture will Importance of security protect GPS mission effectiveness through ap- Given the critical importance of GPS to the plication of defense-in-depth information as- military, which relies on it for close tracking of surance principles. PRONAV security relies assets in an often confused battlespace, and on more than cryptography and uses addi- for the viability of its growing arsenal of preci- tional technological methods and operational sion-guided munitions, the security of the con- techniques to assure the integrity of GPS sig- stellation has never been of greater concern. nals. PRONAV also allows innovation in tai- As the civil world also looks to a future in- loring a multitude of protection measures to creasingly dominated by GPS, those concerns different GPS applications, environments, and only broaden. emerging threats. The end result is a fully “GPS security features have evolved to modernized, robust security architecture that safeguard U.S. and allied forces and protect will protect U.S. and allied forces and GPS authorized GPS operations,” according to operations.” Col. Donald Wussler, who was deputy com- mander of the GPS wing before his promo- Evolving technologies tion to director of development planning for Last August, the Air Force launched the last of SMC in May. “GPS security features enhance eight Block IIR-M replacement satellites and is weapons delivery and, as a byproduct, mini- now preparing to launch the first of 12 Block mize collateral damage.” IIF satellites this year. Those are to be joined, The current GPS security architecture in- beginning in 2014, by a substantially up- cludes the selective-availability antispoofing graded Block III generation, which itself will module (SAASM) capability. Since selective advance through three stages of evolution. availability was turned off in May 2000, The IIR-M satellites added a new M-Code SAASM’s primary benefit has been for anti- on both the L1 and L2 channels and a more spoofing based on unclassified National Secu- robust civil signal (L2C) on the L2 channel in rity Agency “black” cryptographic keys, which addition to the existing L1 C/A signal. The enable flexible handling options such as over- Boeing-built Block IIF satellites will have an the-air distribution of keys. SAASM keys also extended design life of 12 years (the original are uniquely associated with distinct user satellites were designed for about 7.5 years in groups, each on a separate cryptographic net- orbital operation), as well as more memory, work. There are more than 100,000 such faster processors, and a third (L5) new civil SAASM receivers in use by U.S. and allied signal that will enable improved accuracy for forces around the world. many users. “GPS Block II modernized satellites and “Civilian users, whether U.S. or interna- Block III satellites will broadcast the military tional, will be unaffected by changes in the code [M-Code] signal, with added protection— GPS security architecture. Instead, civilian including expanded cryptonets, secure acqui- users will have access to more civil signals sition, special messaging, and next-generation from a more robust GPS constellation—four cryptography,” Wussler tells Aerospace Amer- civil signals from Block III satellites—with un-

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“ATC is a ground-based system, but could someday go to a GPS-based system. Right now, it augments the existing system,” he tells Aerospace America. “The FAA is looking for- “GPS III is probably best characterized as being a third-generation ward to the L5, which is a long-term strategy system where the focus is on improvement and modernization; for them and allows them to start testing out the only two second-generation global SatNav systems in various future applications. operation today are GPS II and GLONASS.” “In addition, the signal itself will allow for a more precise read, although that accuracy is Col. Donald Wussler, former deputy commander, GPS Wing Air Force Space Command Space and Missile Systems Center still up to the Air Force. And it helps provide a more precise location fix. In some areas, such precedented timing performance delivered by as city centers with tall buildings, where it is improved satellite atomic clocks. As a result, harder to get a good fix, the increased signal user receivers that process two or more civil strength from Block IIF will help that.” signals will achieve much better accuracy by GPS IIIA, being built by Lockheed Mar- removing the ionospheric error,” Wussler says. tin, will transmit another new civilian signal “In parallel, FAA is working to add L5- (L1C) and include a new M-Code antijam ca- augmentation to their wide-area augmentation pability to enhance military security and ca- system to improve reliability and robustness pability. Three increments are planned for for properly equipped users, especially safety- GPS III, each adding new capabilities as tech- of-life applications for commercial aviation.” nologies mature. John Duddy, who was director of GPS “GPS IIIB satellites will enable a cross- programs at Boeing Space and Intelligence linked command and control architecture, al- Systems before being put in charge of all Boe- lowing the entire GPS constellation to be up- ing programs in Australia, explains how the dated from a single ground station instead of L5 signal will be used by aviation services, in- waiting for each satellite to orbit in view of a cluding, eventually, air traffic control (ATC). ground antenna. GPS IIIC satellites will also deliver greater M-Code power for increased The GPS Block IIF follow-on satellite design features increased signal strength. resistance to hostile jamming via a high-pow- ered spot beam,” Wussler says. “All users, military and civil, will receive improved accuracy integrity and assured avail- ability. GPS III satellites will also transmit a new civil signal, L1C, which is compatible with the civil E1 signal that will be broadcast by the European Galileo satellite navigation [SatNav] system. L1C is also compatible with signals planned for broadcast by Japan’s Quasi-Zenith Satellite System.”

Interoperability issue Those other systems—including the Russian GLONASS satellites—are seen as comple- mentary to GPS, one reason the new satellites have enhanced interoperabili ty, Wussler says. Galileo and China’s COMPASS are consid- ered roughly equivalent to GPS I, which was a first-generation developmental system, while GPS II and GLONASS are recognized as the only second-generation (operational) global SatNav systems. “Galileo sees [itself] as independent, but if you have a full constellation of Galileo satel- lites and a full constellation of GPS, interoper- ability becomes important in providing a bet- ter and more powerful signal str ength for the world,” Duddy says. “COMPASS is still work- ing out the interoperability piece, from what I

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understand, but they apparently don’t con- “The alternatives today are to maintain sider that as important. GLONASS is strug- some kind of ground network, which is fine gling along, but working cooperatively to as- for the U.S. And as we make this transition, sure compatibility.” that will be the case. We won’t do anything Wussler says the GPS program will con- abrupt or risky in the commercial aviation tinue to work diligently with other SatNav sys- world,” he says. tems as each evolves to the next generation, “So we will hang onto ground infrastruc- with a goal of achieving as much compatibility ture for some time and will operate a system and interoperability as possible to provide civil that relies on both and has the ground system users worldwide with the best possible com- as a backup. As we become more comfortable bined PNT service. and confident with satellites and address some “We see GPS II as being today’s preemi- of these security issues—which are very real— nent space-based PNT system. The deploy- we gradually will migrate away from the ment of GPS III will guide the world to a ground system, even as a backup, which is ul- higher level of space-based PNT. While it’s dif- timately where we need to be. But that isn’t ficult to predict the course that other global anything that is going to happen in the near SatNav systems, or even regional/local aug- future.” mentation systems, will follow in the years to come, we hope that GPS III will be joined by Warnings and responses interoperable and compatible space-based Last May, a Government Accountability Of- PNT services,” he says. fice (GAO) report caused a considerable stir in “Increasing GPS security for military users Congress and the international GPS user should have no effect on the civil prospects for community with warnings of potential launch other SatNav systems since SAASM, M-Code, delays for GPS III and both space and ground- and PRONAV have no impact on GPS civil based problems with the latest GPS II satel- signals. Increasing GPS accuracy and integrity, lites. The report had been requested in the along with new GPS civil signals, will boost the wake of the Air Force’s October 2008 bien- GPS prospects for working effectively with nial report to Congress, which restated previ- other SatNav systems. New GPS signals have ous concerns about the current constellation been designed to work either individually or in and the impact of any future delays. concert with other systems.” “Of the 31 GPS satellites currently on or- bit, 20 are past their design life and 19 are Civilian perspective without redundancy in either the navigation From the civil user community perspective, mission equipment or the satellite bus or having multiple systems available is a major both,” the USAF document stated. “Should plus, according to Basil Barimo, vice president GPS IIF launches be delayed, sustainment of of operations and safety for the Air Transport the GPS constellation will be difficult and the Association (ATA). [U.S. government] could fail to meet perform- “We would love to see a redundant satel- ance levels prescribed in published federal lite network that, if one turns off, you can plans and standards.” switch over to the other and keep going,” he The Air Force and Boeing both re- says. “We would like for airplanes to deter- sponded quickly to the GAO follow-up, which mine which satellite signal is right and step actually did little more than repeat USAF through, in priority order, to get what they “worst case” scenarios that any significant de- need from wherever they can get it, without lays or malfunctions in the GPS IIF or III pro- any interaction from the flight crew. grams could diminish the quality of service. “ATA believes these should all be interop- “We are working through some remain- erable systems, so when an airline purchases ing challenges prior to the delivery of the first an aircraft and equips it to operate, either do- GPS IIF satellite and have made great mestically or internationally, they don’t have to progress while keeping the right focus on mis- install multiple sets of equipment to operate in sion success. We are planning to launch the different parts of the world. We would like to first of the 12 GPS IIF satellites in early see compatible systems so a single nav system 2010,” said a July 7 statement from the GPS can be put on the aircraft and do what it needs Wing. “SV2 will be scheduled based on con- to do regardless of where it is in the world.” stellation sustainment needs, but is not pro- What the future actually holds for satel- jected for sooner than 6-9 months after the lite-based ATC, however, remains an open first launch. We have ample satellites in the question, add s Barimo. near term; we currently have 30 satenllites o

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“They will support the existing constella- tion; part of the requirement is to be back- ward compatible, with all the signals of the current constellation, but also forward com- “Under the original [GPS IIF] schedule, we were supposed to have patible. The uniqueness of the III contract is it launched some time ago, but we had some development issues; is a three-phase approach, not biting off the we still run into issues from day to day, which is typical on any IIIC requirements right up front, but doing an program, but I believe all the technical issues are now behind us.” incremental approach with A and B. So A John Duddy, former director of GPS programs needs the hooks to make it forward compati- Boeing Space and Intelligence Systems ble, that is, a big enough structure to accom- modate the IIIC systems, with weight and orbit and operational today. Users can rely on space area so we don’t need to change the GPS with confidence today and will continue basic satellite structure, change harnessing, or to be able to do so in the future. move components within the vehicle to make That sentiment was echoed in a simulta- that happen.” neous official statement from Boeing: “Working very closely with the Air Force Block III advances and its team, Boeing has taken aggressive In addition to some new signals and increased steps to resolve the technical issues on IIF with power, the Block III satellites eventually will a strong emphasis on mission assurance. De- bring significant advances to both civil and sign changes were required to ensure per- military capabilities. formance over the satellite design life and “Ultimately, the IIIC will enable a regional have caused schedule delays, but these spot beam, substantially increasing the mili- changes are in the final phase of implementa- tary signal for areas of concern. To do that, tion, and a fully integrated satellite (SV1) has you must be able to command the vehicle with already successfully completed the thermal- a more robust crosslink across the constella- vacuum test program—the most stressing sys- tion, which will be added in with the IIIB, giv- tem level test. SV2 was shipped to the Cape ing us better telemetry,” Podlesney explains, The GPS Block IIR-M replenishment on May 6 to perform system-level compatibil- adding that the advanced IIIC capabilities satellite design has modernized ity tests and serve as a risk reduction eventually will become the GPS standard. features. pathfinder for SV1 processing later this year.” “The vehicles eventually wear out and, al- Lockheed Martin Space Systems, mean- though most have lasted well beyond their de- while, was successfully completing a major sign life, they ultimately will fail, and replace- GPS III milestone—the preliminary design re- ments will be needed.” view phase in May—and entering the follow- The current plan calls for up to 12 GPS on critical design review (CDR) phase. That IIIA launches, beginning in 2014, followed by actually is a year-long series of 70 individual eight GPS IIIB and 16 GPS IIIC satellites, CDRs for key spacecraft subsystems, assem- eventually replacing all previous models and blies, and elements by Lockheed Martin and sustaining the system through 2030. its industry partners, ITT and General Dynam- “From an overall perspective, what we ics. Those are scheduled to conclude in the fall now have is a logical progression toward a full of 2010 with a final space vehicle CDR to val- constellation of GPS IIIC capabilities. It is the idate the overall GPS III design for both mili- government’s call, however—if they decide tary and civil requirements. they prefer the newer capabilities, they may “The launch schedule for GPS III certainly decide to launch on demand as opposed to on will maintain the current numbers [of opera- need,” Podl esney concludes. tional satellites in orbit], but the more vehicles “The government’s plan is not necessar- there are in the constellation, the better cov- ily to exercise all 10 IIIA options (beyond the erage and accuracy users on the ground two now under contract) before switching have,” Podlesney told Aerospace America in over to the IIIB. They have structured the pro- mid-July. “Before we get through the devel- gram with enough latitude to continue A, if opment phase, the option rate is four per they want, or, if we are finished with the de- year. They can authorize two at a time, usually velopment aspects, we can implement the B in January and July, although they can choose earlier. It all revolves around funding and per- to exercise options earlier. It also dependsn o formance levels, but the government has constellation health—these are planned more structured it with flexibility in terms of how for launch-on-need rather than demand. they authorize things.”

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Forecasting turbulence over the seas

urbulence, the leading cause of injuries in com- mercial aviation, is a particular concern for transoceanic flights, in remote areas where the phenomenon is often worst and pilots have little information. NASA and NCAR (National Cen- Tter for Atmospheric Research) are working to develop a prototype system to enhance the weather information available to pilots flying over these remote ocean regions. GATDSSA, the Global Atmospheric Turbulence Deci- sion Support System for Aviation, project will use computer weather models, satellite data, and state-of-the-art artificial intelligence techniques to create a picture of developing storms and other potential causes of turbulence.

“One of the goals of providing automated weather information is to make better planning decisions on where to route aircraft in the first place, then by J.R.Wilson give everyone—pilots, air traffic controllers, dispatchers—a common view Contributing writer of weather.” – JOHN WILLIAMS

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When a cumulus cloud becomes vertically developed and dense enough to produce lightning, it is termed a cumulonimbus, or thunderstorm, cloud. The bulging, puffy, cauliflower shapes (left) and the well-developed anvil (right) indicate that this cloud has reached maturity. Copyright University Corporation for Atmospheric Research.

Researchers are developing techniques to give pilots earlier warnings of turbulence in remote areas on transoceanic flights. Until now,little information has been available in these regions, andpilotshavehadtorelyon reports from other aircraft or on satellite data. NCAR is combining advanced technologies and computer modeling to develop clearer pictures of developing storms and other hazardous conditions.

“Oceanic weather is hard, because there isn’t any address and improve information the U.S. provides to two weather radar over the ocean; all we have are pilot reports world area forecast centers, in London and Washington, and satellites,” notes John Murray, advanced satellite avia- D.C. Those centers send out significant meteorological re- tion-weather products (ASAP) project manager at NASA’s ports (SIGMETs) every four hours and significant weather Science Mission Directorate. “In the past five years, we charts every six hours for preflight briefings to pilots on have developed a lot of tools to improve convective overseas routes. The intent is to provide more rapid updates weather and turbulence forecasting, primarily over CONUS and enable pilots en route to request SIGMET updates. [continental U.S.]. Now we are trying to integrate these “Sometimes we call it global GTG [graphical turbulence tools to deal with the oceanic turbulence problem. guidance], a play on the CONUS GTG,” Murray says, re- “We have given NCAR a number of grants in the past ferring to information currently derived from ground-based five years to develop and prove convective weather and tur- radars and satellites. “We are aligning this with the U.S. bulence products using satellite data. Many of those were NextGen [Next Generation Air Transportation System] ef- joint with the University of Wisconsin, the University of Al- fort, part of which is to provide a 4D weather cube—time abama-Huntsville, and MIT’s Lincoln Laboratory. For ex- dimensions with diagnosis and forecast. ample, the $912,000, three-year grant we issued to NCAR “Our forecast will run from 0 to 36 hr, including 0-3-hr in July to study oceanic convection and turbulence is an ef- ‘nowcasts’ that include thunderstorm locations and intensi- fort to bring together all of the tools developed in the previ- ties we can use to derive a probability of convectively in- ous five years of ASAP studies.” duced turbulence. That is one of three major sources of up- per atmospheric turbulence—the other two being mountain Guidance for better decisions wave turbulence and clear air turbulence, which is associ- The GATDSSA study is focused on improving turbulence ated with jet stream upper level fronts and shears.” decision support systems for pilots, using satellite data to GTG is an “expert system” that combines information

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environmental and observational features of a “This new work to detect the likelihood of turbulence associated thunderstorm and associating that with an air- with oceanic storms using key space-based indicators is of craft observation of turbulence. Then build an crucial importance to pilots.” – JOHN HAYNES empirical model that maps the observables program manager, Earth Science Division’s and models data to a prediction of the turbu- Applied Sciences Program, NASA lence,” he says. “That works by taking a set of data and training an ensemble of decision trees, each on a random subset of the data and only al- lowed to use a certain number of predictors. You train up about 200 decision trees, each able to vote on the classification of a new situ- ation and, based on the distribution of those votes, you can relate to a probability of where turbulence is likely to be. That seems to be working pretty well, although we haven’t ap- plied it yet to the global turbulence problem— just to predicting thunderstorms over the U.S. and convective turbulence.”

Spotting clues Another useful weather feature is called over- shooting tops—cloud towers that have punched through the general cloud top, indicating the greatest area of strong updrafts and, if associ- ated with precipitation, leading to strong downdrafts and so a good chance for severe turbulence. Other factors, such as features as- Studying developing thunderstorms sociated with the jet stream, also are consid- on land will aid in predictive ered, because turbulence itself is too small to modeling capabilities. Image courtesy North Dakota State from a variety of sources that is then weighted be seen. Climate Office. based on reliability, timeliness, and other fac- “The average area of turbulence is only tors. Satellite data can be the first indication of about 10 to a few hundred meters, and satel- possible trouble in areas without radar cover- lites can only see [weather] features down to age or regular traffic routes, filling in data gaps about 1 km in length or breadth—but we can through examination of such things as gravity see areas where turbulence is likely to occur,” wave patterns in clouds; turbulence often is as- Murray explained. “So a main satellite func- sociated with breaking waves. Another tech- tion is actually to help us rule out areas least nique called “random forests,” first identified in likely to have turbulence. 2001, also can be applied, according to John “Turbulence actually is most damaging Williams, NCAR’s GATDSSA project lead. when the area is about the same size as the “The basic idea is to take a set of data in aircraft itself. If you have an area that is very which you associate a number of predictors strong and only 100-1,000 ft long, all that en- with a predictant—in our case, taking various ergy is concentrated like a punch. And that’s where people standing in the aisles hit the top Overshooting tops can provide of the cabin when the aircraft drops or rises strong evidence of turbulence. abruptly.” Part of the current NCAR effort is to study more closely elements associated with thunderstorms over land, such as height, size, and intensity, and how they are likely to be re- lated to turbulence, then apply those meas- urements to satellite data. Because ground- based radars and other measurements used in the forecasting methodology over land are not available over water, identifying commonali- ties that can be seen with both is crucial to en- hancing oceanic forecasting.

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Aid from advanced space systems Advanced satellite technologies now coming online or due in the near future also will sub- stantially improve weather-related data avail- able to turbulence prediction and detection. For example, the MODIS (moderate resolu- tion imaging spectroradiometer) imager now flying on NASA’s Terra and Aqua Earth orbit- ing satellites can see down to 250 m, very close to the scale of turbulence. Higher resolution sensors coming online include imagers that look at visible light, pro- viding not just pictures but energy measure- ments at different wavelengths. By looking at the differences in multiple data channels, re- searchers can tell if the cloud tops are cooling quickly, indicating rapid convection. Other sensors called sounders look at the infrared portion of the spectrum, providing informa- tion on relative humidity and temperature at different altitudes. Balloon sounders currently are used for that, along with some on satel- MODIS can see down to 250 m, lites, but future satellite sensors will be much very close to the scale of turbulence, and so aids in more sophisticated. that can really characterize what the storms turbulence prediction. “In a few years, we will have even higher look like as it flies over that strip; we can use resolution imagers on the GOES series; that to verify that the information we have on around the midteens, the GOES-R satellite that storm, based on the environmental satel- will have an advanced imager, and eventually lites, is correct.” these experimental sens ors will become stan- dard,” Murray says. “GOES-R also will have a The size factor lightning sensor, and the polar orbiting satel- Because of the actual size of areas of turbu- lites will have instruments measuring profiles lence, the impact varies greatly with the size of temperature and water vapor—the starting of the aircraft—as does the best course of ac- point for all weather forecasts. tion for the pilot to take. “If you look at the GTG model, it starts “Turbulence operates at the scale of the out using information from NOAA’s rapid up- aircraft, so if the area of turbulence is smaller date cycle,” Murray continues. “The RUC tells than the aircraft, it might be felt as just a little the temperature and water vapor levels for the high-frequency chop, where an aircraft the next 6 hours and is the finest resolution in- same size as the turbulence would have a strument we have f or that. By looking at the much higher level of problem,” Murray ex- RUC profiles, the GTG can tell what the sta- plains. “The size of the aircraft and its config- bility of the atmosphere will be at a particular uration, amount of fuel, whether it has pas- location.” sengers or cargo, all change the loading. While NASA satellites are being used in What a 747 might not even feel or a 737 developing the system, Williams adds, they might feel as light to moderate turbulence, will serve primarily for verification and tuning, rather than data-gathering, in an operational system. “We are using primarily operational “For nonfatal accidents, turbulence is the number-one cause of environmental satellites, such as NOAA’s injury to flight crews and passengers, especially flight attendants, GOES, and hope to use the European Media- who spend so much time on their feet.” – JOHN MURRAY Sat and Japanese 1R satellites. The NASA satellites are, by and large, polar orbiters and make occasional stripe measurements, so we someone in a smaller aircraft might experi- really can’t base a product on them,” he says. ence as severe turbulence.” “But we can use some advanced NASA Thus the cost of diverting may be signifi- research satellites to verify the products we cantly higher than the benefit of any evasive develop based on the others. For example, action for a “big heavy” than for a lighter air- there is a satellite with a down-pointing radar craft. In addition, some new aircraft are de-

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signed with some measure of turbulence miti- together, using some pretty fast computers to gation built in, so even if all other factors are process it all with minimum latency to get in- identical, the pilot of a new model might make formation to decision-makers. In a year, we a different decision from the one made by the plan to demonstrate cockpit uplinks of cus- pilot of an older aircraft from the same family. tomized maps of turbulence ahead of oceanic Researchers also are developing or en- flights; for that, we send a text message to hancing other ways to measure encountered ARINC that will be downlinked via satellite to turbulence and determine the best approach the ACARS [aircraft communications address- for a variety of aircraft that may be on course ing and reporting system] printer, which is an to encounter it next. enabler for that cockpit uplink,” he says. “In-situ turbulence reporting is a system “We will have a Web link for pilots to re- developed by NCAR to turn the airplane into view the messages they receive and provide a turbulence monitor,” Williams says. “That feedback. We also will have a Web-accessible uses the eddy dissipation rate [EDR]—measur- link, using Java, based on a system called the ing the rate at which energy flows from large- Aviation Digital Data Service, for dispatchers, scale forcing mechanisms down to smaller air traffic controllers, and anyone else inter- scale eddies. The scaling from EDR to a par- ested, but next year probably only visible to ticular aircraft depends on its speed, weight, selected United Airlines dispatchers. It will be a few years before it would be FAA approved and publicly accessible.” The system is being designed to avoid the need for any additional cockpit hardware, Williams adds, although additional pilot train- ing may be required down the line. “We’re doing our best to focus on the at- mospheric science problems of predicting thunderstorms and turbulence, making use of available data feeds and technologies, such as uplinking a text graphics map to ACARS,” he notes. “We would prefer a graphical color map, but we’re focusing on the aviation weather problem, not the dissemination prob- lem. So it will print out on the same strip printer as other ACARS messages in the cock- The GTG combines and assigns pit, which is a new use of an existing product. weight information from a variety of sources. and wing area. We take the reporting air- “We hope, in two years, we can make the craft’s independent measurement and can system available to the FAA for evaluation as scale it back to apply to any particular aircraft part of the NextGen operational capability in type and operating conditions. 2013, where it would be run routinely by the “That gives us routine, objective measure- FAA Tech Center or National Weather Serv- ments of turbulence, which are key to devel- ice. The grids would be made available for air- oping relationships of what can be measured lines or private vendors to use as they see fit. by satellite, from the global forecast system We hope that will mean inclusion in electronic model and the aircraft measured turbulence, flight bags currently under development to using AI [artificial intelligence] techniques to provide pilots with graphical displays of a va- sort through all this data and uncover those re- riety of weather data in the cockpit—and that lationships, which we then will apply globally.” certainly will require some additional pilot training.” Communicating the results At the same time, any such system will Currently, the global forecast model run by the have to avoid creating information overload U.S. National Weather Service provides 3D for the pilot. forecasts of wind, temperature, stability, hu- midity, and other environmental features Managing the load around the world. The data will be used to de- “One thing we studied under our last aviation rive diagnostics of turbulence and combined to weather program was how much of a pilot form an estimate of where it is likely to occur. load, with respect to weather [information], “So the various satellite systems, the AI can be managed effectively. We learned it is methodology of random forests, etc., are put best to give a pilot only what he needs. He

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“Our goal is to give pilots a regularly updated picture of the likely storms ahead as they fly over the ocean, so they can take action to minimize turbulence and keep their aircraft out of danger.” – CATHY KESSINGER NCAR project scientist

has too many other things to manage to be “That information and those probabilities looking at weather maps in the cockpit, so will be constantly updated and improved, be- any information you provide has to be very cause weather is nonlinear and chaotic, which specific and tailored specifically to his need,” is why weather forecasts are less reliable the Murray says. farther out you try to go. If you get one obser- “This is an evolutionary question. There vation just a little wrong, it can throw the is an ATC [air traffic controller] there now, be- whole forecast off.” cause he has information the pilot doesn’t. If the pilot has better information, it might be Parallel efforts better to let him make decisions now made by NextGen and its weather component involve others, especially if he can make a better deci- efforts by a wide range of government agen- sion. But until the information is better, the cies, industry and industry organizations, and workload is divided to take advantage of the academia, including international collabora- fact the ATC knows things the pilot doesn’t. tion. Those range from the FAA, NOAA, “The whole purpose of NextGen is to use NASA, and NCAR to the American Meteoro- automated tools to help manage this vast logical Society’s Aviation Range and Aero- amount of information without overwhelming space Meteorology Group and AIAA’s Atmo- the pi lot,” says Murray. “As the FAA and air- spheric and Space Environments Technical lines examine the quality of information they Committee to NASA’s Aeronautical and get through NextGen, the question becomes Space Operations Subcommittee. Those and ‘When, and to what degree, do we give pilots others work closely through an interagency/ more autonomy?’ In a typical en route sce- industry partnership program to coordinate nario, with aircraft spaced out every 5 mi. and their efforts. 2,000 ft, if the pilot gets information that That also applies to ongoing efforts in Eu- would avoid or reduce turbulence, there’s no rope and Asia to develop similar systems, in- reason not to independently change altitude cluding a global standard to deal with weather or heading. Right now, however, there are too information. Thus while each effort is prima- many factors to make that determination.” rily designed to develop a new airspace sys- The information now being developed tem for a nation or region, each also must under the NCAR program, together with other deal with aviation as a global enterprise. The NASA, NOAA, FAA, and academic research, same aircraft may fly through multiple jurisdic- has been identified as critical for NextGen, tions on a single flight, but will need a coordi- Murray says, and especially for its 4D Net- nated set of rules and information provision to work-Enabled Weather System. The long- do so safely and efficiently. term goal of that network-centric, Internet- “I think we can improve safety, efficiency, based approach is for every system aboard an and passenger comfort by providing an auto- airplane to have an IP address, making the re- mated system, with minimal latency, to help lationship between all aircraft, satellite, and pilots, dispatchers, and air traffic controllers ground systems similar to that of all the net- make better decisions on how to route the air- worked computers in an office. craft and when to divert or prepare for en- “NextGen will use a standard database, counters with pockets of turbulence,” Williams and all ATM [air traffic management] will be concludes. based on a very strict data set, called the sin- “Our system will indicate something gle authoritative source. And I tend to think about storm height and intensity, which in- weather information associated with that will cludes the hazard of turbulence, but also wa- be much higher quality and will have some ter temperature and the possibility of hail and probabilistic components, such as saying, lightning. So even though turbulence is the ‘Here’s where we expect convection to be in 1 primary goal of our system, if you know hr with 85% confidence and in 2 hr with 35% where the storms are and their intensity, these confidence,’ and so on,” Murray says. other hazards also might be avoided.”

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25 Years Ago, February 1985

Feb. 8 Arabsat 1, the Arab world’s first communications satellite, is launched by an Ariane rocket. The satellite was developed by a French consortium. Also launched on the same mission is Brazil’s first satellite, Brazilsat 1. However, on January 2, 1986, Arabsat 1 malfunctions and ceases to operate. NASA, for the X-15 at the Arnold Engineering Astronautics and Aeronautics, 1985, pp. 136, 455; NASA, Astronautics and Development Center at Tullahoma, Aeronautics, 1986-90, p. 3. Tenn. Because of developmental delays with the XLR-99, the X-15 is 50 Years Ago, February 1960 using the “Interim Engine,” consisting of two XLR-11 engines of 8,000 lb Feb. 2 Paul Codos, the French flying pioneer, dies in Paris. With total thrust. The XLR-11s are upgraded others, he set speed and endurance records for distance flights in versions of the engine used in the old the 1920s and 1930s. In January 1932 he flew the first flight from Bell X-1 and other early X research Paris to Hanoi and in May 1934, with copilot Maurice Rossi, flew aircraft. D. Jenkins, X-15: Extending the Atlantic from Paris to New York in a record 38 hr 27 min. the Frontiers of Flight, passim. The Aeroplane, Feb. 19, 1960, p. 215; Paul Codos file, NASM. Feb. 16 Plans are announced in Feb. 2 The USAF two-stage Titan ICBM makes its launch from Cape Canaveral, Washington, D.C., to use the British Fla. Both stages ignite successfully and the second stage achieves separation. solid-fuel Skylark sounding rocket to The first full-range flight of the Titan I is achieved on February 24. D. Baker, send U.S.-built instruments 100 mi. Spaceflight and Rocketry—A Chronology, p. 99. into the atmosphere. The U.S. wishes to obtain comparative results of some Feb. 3 Duane E. Graveline, a doctor at the USAF Aerospace experiments conducted in different Medical Laboratory at Brooks AFB, Texas, undergoes simulated latitudes such as Australia, at whose weightlessness as encountered in space when he is submerged Woomera facility the rocket is usually in liquid in a centrifuge and placed in a 5-g spin, demonstrating launched. The Aeroplane, Feb. 26, muscle deterioration without exercise. E. Emme, ed., 1960, p. 256. Aeronautics and Astronautics, 1915-60, p. 119. Feb. 19 The Discoverer X is launched Feb. 4 Scientists at Stanford University report the successful reflection of radar but does not reach orbit. E. Emme, signals bounced off the Sun’s corona on April 7, 10, and 12, 1959. E. Emme, ed., ed., Aeronautics and Astronautics, Aeronautics and Astronautics, 1915-60, p. 119. 1915-60, p. 119.

Feb. 7 New data from Explorer VII reveals that the outer Van Feb. 25 The sold-fuel Allen radiation belt rim around the Earth moves as much as 500 Pershing two-stage mi. north and south in latitude and varies tenfold in intensity medium-range ballistic within a few hours. E. Emme, ed., Aeronautics and Astronautics, missile, designed to 1915-60, p. 119. replace the single-stage liquid-fuel Redstone missile Feb. 9 Spacetrack, the National Space Surveillance Control Center, is dedicated as the Army’s primary at Bedford, Mass. The facility detects, tracks, catalogues, and identifies theater-level weapon, man-made objects orbiting Earth. These include active or inactive satellites, achieves its first test flight spent rocket parts, and fragmentation debris. E. Emme, ed., Aeronautics and from Cape Canaveral, Fla. Astronautics, 1915-60, p. 119. Named after WW I Gen. John J. Pershing, the missile Feb. 11 The X-15 rocket research aircraft makes its third successful powered serves for 30 years. E. flight. Pilot Scott Crossfield flies it up to 88,116 ft and reaches a speed of 1,466 Emme, ed., Aeronautics mph. D. Jenkins, X-15: Extending the Frontiers of Flight, p. 610. and Astronautics, 1915-60, p. 119. Feb. 16 The Reaction Motors Div. of Thiokol Chemical successfully completes a series of 36 tests of the 59,000-lb-thrust throttlable XLR-99 Pioneer rocket engine Feb. 26 The newly developed Atlas-

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An Aerospace Chronology

by Frank H. Winter, Ret. andNational Robert Air van and der Space Linden Museum

Agena B vehicle is launched in an attempt to orbit the first Midas Feb. 23 The first satellite, designed to detect hostile ICBM launches. But the airplane of the fort- second stage Agena fails to separate and the satellite does nightly Sabena not go into orbit. The Aeroplane, March 11, 1960, p. 328. airmail service between Brussels 75 Years Ago, February 1935 and the Belgian Congo, a Fokker Feb. 1 The annual RAF Middle East Command air display F. VIIb/3m called takes place at Heliopolis, Egypt. Prince Farouk, heir to the the Edmond Thieffry, country’s throne, is among the visitors. The flying is reportedly of leaves with 82 kg of a high standard, although sand churned up by stiff breezes prevents mail. Pilot Prosper Cocquyt live parachute drops. Mock attacks on towed targets are made, and the event was invited to King Leopold's palace also features troop-carrying airplanes, aerial ambulances, formation flying, a few days earlier to explain the parachute drops of dummies, supply dropping, and other demonstrations. operating arrangements. Cocquyt The Aeroplane,Feb. 13, 1935, p. 181. has been Sabena’s chief pilot since 1927. The Aeroplane, Feb. 27, 1935, Feb. 3 Hugo Junkers, the German airplane designer and pioneering manufacturer, p. 251. dies on his 76th birthday in Munich. The son of a mill owner and gas engine manufacturer, Junkers started his own firm in 1895 to make And During February 1935 water-heating machines for bathing spas. These were so-called Junkers electric geysers. In 1910 he patented —The Segrave Trophy for 1935 goes an all-wing aircraft. In 1915 his company made its to Kenneth Waller for his flights to first all-metal airplane, of sheet steel, and in 1916 and from Australia and the Belgian made an all-aluminum one. Junkers Aircraft was Congo. Named for Sir Henry Segrave, formally founded in 1919. Closed soon after the trophy is bestowed upon the because of the Versailles Treaty, the company later British subject who makes the year’s reopened and became one of the world’s great most outstanding demonstration of airplane firms. Subsidiaries opened in 1920 in locomotion by land, air, or water. Moscow and Sweden soon after. In 1921, the The Aeroplane, Feb. 6, 1935, p. 146. company started a domestic air service that was later taken over by Lufthansa. Junkers retired in 1932 and —Pacific Alaska Airways, a subsidiary devoted himself to scientific experiments and his family. of Pan American, receives its new His aircraft played a crucial role in supporting Hitler’s Lockheed Electra twin-engine airliner ambitions in WW II, particularly the infamous Ju 87 “Stuka” at its Fairbanks headquarters. dive bomber that swept before the advancing German armies in Western Europe Previously, the airline flew single- and later Russia, and the superlative Ju 88 medium bomber. This despite the fact engine Lockheed Vegas. The two that Junkers himself was an ardent anti-Nazi. The Aeroplane, Feb. 6, 1935, p. 146. main routes are from Fairbanks to Nome and Fairbanks to Bethel, each Feb. 12 The Navy rigid airship USS Macon is destroyed in a storm a few miles off about 550 mi. The Aeroplane,Feb. 13, Point Sur, Calif., while returning from maneuvers. All but two of the crew survive. 1935, p. 192. As soon as the captain, Lt. Cmdr. Herbert Wiley, realizes the ship is falling, he orders the crew to prepare to abandon ship. They inflate and jettison rubber 100 Years Ago,February 1910 lifeboats, and, as the airship’s stern settles into the water, swim to them. Three ships later pick up the crew. The Macon was launched April 21, Feb. 11 French 1933, shortly after the loss of her sister ship, the Akron. Flight, Feb. 21, pilot Julien Mamet 1935, p. 198. completes the first flight of an airplane Feb. 21 A new transcontinental record is set by Leland S. Andrews and in Spain while Henry Meyers in a Vultee standard transport machine flown in a gale piloting his Bleriot. from Los Angeles to New York in 11 hr 34 min at an average speed of A. van Hoorebeeck, 218 mph. The previous record for the 2,577-mi. route, set a month ago, La Conquete de was 11 hr 59 min. The Aeroplane, Feb, 27. 1935, p. 234. L’Air, p. 82.

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