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Hydrological Impacts of Climate Change on Small Ungauged Catchments – Results from a GCM–RCM–Hydrologic Model Chain

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Hydrological Impacts of Climate Change on Small Ungauged Catchments – Results from a GCM–RCM–Hydrologic Model Chain Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1–23, 2020 https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1-2020 © Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License. Hydrological impacts of climate change on small ungauged catchments – results from a GCM–RCM–hydrologic model chain Aynalem T. Tsegaw1, Marie Pontoppidan2, Erle Kristvik1, Knut Alfredsen1, and Tone M. Muthanna1 1Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU), S. P. Andersensvei 5, 7491 Trondheim, Norway 2NORCE Norwegian Research Centre, Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway Correspondence: Aynalem T. Tsegaw ([email protected]) Received: 28 October 2019 – Discussion started: 4 December 2019 Revised: 10 June 2020 – Accepted: 26 June 2020 – Published: Abstract. TS1 Climate change is one of the greatest threats tainty. Nevertheless, the study increases our knowledge and currently facing the world’s environment. In Norway, a understanding of the hydrological impacts of climate change change in climate will strongly affect the pattern, frequency, on small catchments in the Bergen area in the western part of and magnitudes of stream flows. However, it is challenging Norway. 35 5 to quantify to what extent the change will affect the flow pat- terns and floods from small rural catchments due to the un- availability or inadequacy of hydro-meteorological data for the calibration of hydrological models and due to the tailor- 1 Introduction ing of methods to a small-scale level. To provide meaningful 10 climate impact studies at the level of small catchments, it is Climate change is one of the greatest threats to human exis- therefore beneficial to use high-spatial- and high-temporal- tence, economic activity, ecosystems, and civil infrastructure resolution climate projections as input to a high-resolution (Kim and Choi, 2012). The climate change risks depend on hydrological model. In this study, we used such a model the magnitude of warming, rate of warming, geographic lo- 40 chain to assess the impacts of climate change on the flow pat- cation, levels of development, vulnerability, and choices and 15 terns and frequency of floods in small ungauged rural catch- implementation of adaptation and mitigation options (IPCC, ments in western Norway. We used a new high-resolution 2018). The trends of changes vary considerably in differ- regional climate projection, with improved performance re- ent parts of Europe because of changes in large-scale atmo- garding the precipitation distribution, and a regionalized hy- spheric circulation or local orographic circulation (Eisenre- 45 drological model (distance distribution dynamics) between ich et al., 2005; Hattermann et al., 2007 CE1 ). 20 a reference period (1981–2011) and a future period (2070– Changes in temperature and precipitation and the shift in 2100). The flow-duration curves for all study catchments winter precipitation from snow to rain play an important role show more wet periods in the future than during the refer- in studying impacts of climate change on the hydrology of a ence period. The results also show that in the future period, catchment. These changes influence the hydrological regime 50 the mean annual flow increases by 16 % to 33 %. The mean of a stream, and the most serious and widespread potential 25 annual maximum floods increase by 29 % to 38 %, and floods impact of the changes is flooding (Baltas, 2007; Richardson, of 2- to 200-year return periods increase by 16 % to 43 %. 2002; Thornes, 2001 CE2 ). The Blöschl et al. (2019) study The results are based on the RCP8.5 scenario from a sin- shows that increasing autumn and winter rainfall results in gle climate model simulation tailored to the Bergen region increasing mean annual floods in northern Europe. In Nor- 55 in western Norway, and the results should be interpreted in way, the average annual temperature and precipitation are ◦ 30 this context. The results should therefore be seen in consid- expected to increase by 3.8 to 6.2 C and 7 % to 27 %, re- eration of other scenarios for the region to address the uncer- spectively, by the end of the century using the RCP8.5 sce- nario (Hanssen-Bauer et al., 2015). The largest increase in Please note the remarks at the end of thePublished manuscript. by Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union. 2 A. T. Tsegaw et al.: Hydrological impacts of climate change on small ungauged catchments precipitation is mostly expected during the autumn and win- els, the short response time of the catchments, difficulty in ter months, which will in turn impact the magnitude and in describing local hydrological processes, and coarse resolu- some cases the seasonality of flood peaks. A climate im- tion of climate models. Inadequate process representation pact study in Sogn and Fjordane county of Norway showed in climate models, with coarse spatial resolution (e.g., grid 5 that flood peaks shift from summer to autumn in the fu- spacing of 9 km), results in poor representation of the ob- 60 ture scenario (2071–2100) (Chernet et al., 2014). Donnelly served precipitation in small catchments (e.g., area less than et al. (2017) studied climate change impacts on European 50 km2), which is inadequate for the assessment of impacts in hydrology and found that climate change will strongly affect small catchments (Quintero et al., 2018). For example, Pon- the hydrological cycle in the regions of Europe where Nor- toppidan et al. (2017) showed that during a flooding event 10 way is in the future period. Outside Norway, authors have in western Norway, the regional model simulated observed 65 reported that the frequency and magnitude of flows are being rainfall considerably better with a grid spacing of 3 km com- affected by the changes in climatic conditions (Alfieri et al., pared to a grid spacing of 9 km due to the complex terrain in 2015; Blöschl et al., 2019; Madsen et al., 2014; Mallakpour the area. Therefore, to provide meaningful climate impact re- and Villarini, 2015; Rojas et al., 2013). Adverse effects of cli- sults for small catchments, it is necessary to use high spatial 15 mate change on river regimes worldwide (Pumo et al., 2016) and temporal resolutions of projected climate data as forc- 70 call attention to the hydrological impact of climate change ing in high-resolution hydrological models (Lespinas et al., study at a local scale. 2014; López-Moreno et al., 2013; Reynolds et al., 2015 CE3 ; An increase in heavy localized precipitation events as pro- Tofiq and Guven, 2014). Current efforts of coordinated re- jected suggests an increase in precipitation-generated local gional downscaling in Europe (EURO-CORDEX; e.g., Ja- 20 flooding. An increase in local flash floods can cause signifi- cob et al., 2014; Kotlarski et al., 2014) are performed on a 75 cant danger and loss of life and property (Borga et al., 2011; 0.11◦ grid; however a new high-resolution regional down- Kundzewicz et al., 2014). Local flash floods usually occur in scaling with improved representation of local precipitation small catchments (e.g., area less than 50 km2). These types of distribution for southern Norway is available (Pontoppidan flood events are usually short in duration, but they are usually et al., 2018) but has yet to be included in a full hydrological 25 connected with severe damage (Menzel et al., 2006). Studies model chain. 80 show that the probability and magnitude of hazardous heavy- To solve the challenge related to lack of availability of precipitation events have been increasing in several European a properly calibrated high-resolution hydrological model at regions (e.g., Golz et al., 2016). Heavy localized precipita- ungauged small rural catchments in Norway, a predictive tion could be caused by low-pressure systems (e.g., western tool has been developed and tested. Tsegaw et al. (2019a) 30 Norway; Azad and Sorteberg, 2017) or by prevailing convec- calibrated and validated the distance distribution dynam- 85 tive precipitation at hilly or mountainous areas. ics (DDD) hydrological model for 41 gauged small rural A quantitative analysis of the impacts of climate change catchments in Norway with hourly temporal resolution. For on the stream flow requires simulations in a hydro- predicting flow in the ungauged catchments, the DDD model meteorological system. The models on which the simulations parameters were regionalized using three different methods 35 are based should adequately represent the system dynam- of regionalization (multiple regression, physical similarity, 90 ics relevant for different types of flow (e.g., floods) gener- and combined method). To evaluate the model, a number of ation (Menzel et al., 2006). Hydrological models provide the gauged catchments were selected and treated as ungauged means to conceptualize and investigate the relationship be- during evaluation. The findings show that the combined tween climate (e.g., precipitation and temperature) and wa- method performs the best of all the methods in predicting 40 ter resources (e.g., low flows and floods) of a region. These flow. Even if the DDD model predicts flow at the test catch- 95 models are needed in order to assess the likely effects of cli- ments satisfactorily (0.5 ≤ Kling–Gupta efficiency < 0.75), mate change, and to propose appropriate adaptation strate- the model underestimates most of the observed flood peaks gies (Baltas, 2007). The results of regional climate impact (Tsegaw et al., 2019a). To improve the prediction of observed studies aid in proposing adaptation measures
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