Environmental Research, Engineering and Management 2017/73/1 33 EREM 73/1 Patterns and Forecast of Long-term Cyclical Fluctuations of the Water Journal of Environmental Research, Runoff of Ukrainian Carpathians Rivers Engineering and Management Vol. 73 / No. 1 / 2017 Received 2017/06 Accepted after revision 2017/07 pp. 33-47 DOI 10.5755/j01.erem.73.1.15799 © Kaunas University of Technology http://dx.doi.org/10.5755/j01.erem.73.1.15799 Patterns and Forecast of Long-term Cyclical Fluctuations of the Water Runoff of Ukrainian Carpathians Rivers Oleksandr Obodovskyi, Olga Lukianets Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv Glushkov prospekt, 2A, Kyiv, SMP680 Ukraine Corresponding author:
[email protected] Oleksandr Obodovskyi , Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv Glushkov prospekt, 2A, Kyiv, SMP680 Ukraine Knowledge of the cyclicity features in the fluctuations of river runoff, duration and nature of the low-water and high-water period interchange in one or other river basins, and especially their prediction, provides invaluable as- sistance in the planning and sound management of water resources, improving the operational efficiency of hydro- power, reclamation and other water facilities. Currently, the interest in the study of long-term cyclical fluctuations in river runoff, as well as patterns of fluctuations of its underlying factor, has highly increased due to their use in long-term forecasts. Time series of annual water runoff for basins of Tisza, Dniester and Prut rivers were estimated with the use of mathematical tools, methodological framework of which is based on a statistical means of summarizing, systemi- sation of the input data, evaluation methods of time random sets of runoff characteristics, methods of analysis of the time-series variability and manifestation of their structure.