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UBS Investor's Guide Until pianist Kathryn Stott helps Yo-Yo Ma bring out the best in a composition, she will not rest. (Berlin, 2011.) UBS investor’s guide Chief Investment Office Switzerland Clients of UBS Switzerland / Swiss domicile 4 May 2012 What can your client advisor learn about chemistry from Kathryn Stott? Kathryn Stott knows every nuance of Yo-Yo Ma’s playing style. She can anticipate the slightest change in his tempo. Sense the subtlest alteration in the pressure he applies to his bow. The result is perfect harmony. We aim to achieve the same working harmony with our clients. To recognise your entrepreneurial spirit, and understand the challenges and opportunities you face. Responding with the advice and insights that can help you better manage your portfolio. To be your trusted advisors in tune with your Central and Eastern Europe goals and ambitions. Growing without the euro Until then... Interview “Poland should push for reforms regardless of the euro”: Professor Leszek Balcerowicz, former president of the National Bank of Poland Market outlook Global growth on track despite European concerns Fault lines Europe’s backfire of the vanities We will not rest www.ubs.com/wewillnotrest-ch Names and/or references to third parties in this print advertisement are used with permission. Location and date stated in the legend indicate where and when the image was taken. © UBS 2012. All rights reserved. IG CH-englisch YYM.indd 1 23/01/2012 12:09:26 Asset allocation – How to invest The bar charts below depict relative prefer- Key investment ideas ences within asset classes and are therefore not comparable across classes. > See more on page 16 NEW IDEA Equities US mid caps: The sweet spot Asset allocation Underweighted Neutral Overweighted With China’s outlook stabler, we are comfortable with a –6 –4 –2 0 2 4 6 Even though the growth outlook in the US is below its long-term trend, it is likely moderate overweight risk position, made up of an over- Liquidity Liquidity to be resilient with little risk to the upside or downside over the next six months. weight in credit, an underweight in government bonds, Bonds Bonds US mid caps usually have higher expected top-line (sales) and bottom-line (earn- and a neutral position in equities and commodities. Equities Equities ings) growth than large caps in such a growth environment. This supports the Listed RealListed Estate real estate CommoditiesCommodities superior relative performance of US mid caps, although it does come with the risk of more cyclical earnings. > See page 18 Equities STILL OPEN Equities Emerging market equities We maintain a neutral allocation, preferring the US Index:and SeiteIndex: 2.1_Asset-Alloc._1104 Seite 2.1_Asset-Alloc._1204 emerging markets (EM). The current reporting season sup- US US EMU EMU Currently, average emerging stock market valuations are not demanding. Given a ports expectations of solid earnings growth for US firms. UK UK longer-term investment horizon, we would expect emerging equities, on average, Easier monetary policy and ample global liquidity should Japan Japan to outperform developed market equities. Near term, however, uncertainty about lift EM equities. Least preferred markets are the EurozoneEmerging MarketsEmerging markets SwitzerlandSwitzerland global growth has increased volatility. and Switzerland. Global *including currency view Index: Seite 2.2_Equity_1104 Bonds Index: Seite 2.2_Equity_1204 Developed market sovereign yields again hit record lows; NEW IDEA Bonds Emerging market corporates: A growing asset class they are now even less attractive. We thus now advise buy-Government Government ing shorter-duration bonds, still preferring corporate Convertible We forecast a base case return of 7% for EM corporate credit over the next 12 Convertible bonds, foremost from lower-rated segments still offering a Corporate months in USD, but temporary setbacks cannot be ruled out. We recommend Corporate good return outlook. EM corporate and sovereign bonds High Yield building up exposure to EM corporate bonds in a well-diversified way and advise High-yield also show appeal. Emerging Market using cash positions and exposure to developed market government bonds as the Emerging markets main funding source. > See page 20 Index: Seite 2.3_Bond_1104 Currencies The GBP is our preferred currency among the majors; it will STILL OPEN Bonds US high-yield corporate bonds likely be supported by falling inflation, better growth fig- USD USD EUR EUR In an economic environment of low positive growth, moderate inflation and low ures and the end of quantitative easing. We favor the USD JPY JPY over the EUR and (as a result of the peg) the CHF, as the GBP GBP interest rates, US high-yield corporate bonds are expected to achieve superior CHF CHF total returns over the next 12 months. We currently avoid European issuers as ongoing Eurozone crisis weighs on the EUR. NOK Other SEK they are more exposed to further deterioration of the debt crisis in Europe. CAD AUD Index: Seite 2.4_Currency_1104 Index: Seite 2.4_Currency_1204 Commodities and NTAC Currencies GBP – the best of the majors We close the gold overweight; investor demand is unlikely STILL OPEN Commodities to offset rising production, and safe-haven appeal has Commodities The combination of political stability and strong fiscal consolidation kept the UK’s Listed Real ListedEstate real estate dropped. Expecting stronger Chinese growth in 2Q, we AAA rating intact and falling inflation should lift real interest rates – both support- Hedge FundsHedge funds close the underweight in base metals; good entry points ing the GBP. We like equities and selected real estate, but prefer using corporate Private EquityPrivate equity should arise in months ahead. Copper could have a short- bonds with a rather short duration of two to four years to invest in the GBP. term setback. This page contains investment recommendations that were not issued solely by UBS CIO WM Research and therefore are not subject to all the legal provisions govern- ing the independence of financial analysis. Index: Seite 2.5_NTAC_1104Index: Seite 2.5_NTAC_1204 Editorial Contents Dear readers, Focus themes Focus 06 – 09 The European crisis remains far from over. Spain is now in the spotlight News in brief 10 – 11 of investor concerns, the elections in France and Greece could change Interview 12 – 13 the game for better or for worse, while in the Netherlands, yet another Fault lines 14 European government has been ousted. All this is unnerving, especially Reader’s corner 15 given that elsewhere the economic situation is improving. The US is themes Focus growing, not in leaps and bounds but at least solidly. Moreover, in our view, China has now landed, and hence is ready for another takeoff in the second half of the year, pulling many exporting nations in its wake. “How are Cen- Key investment ideas tral and Eastern Europe will take center stage for soccer fans when the European cham- Market outlook 16 – 17 pionship kicks off in little more than a month. For the first time since Investment ideas 18 – 21 European coun- 1976, it will be played in the former Eastern bloc. With Eurozone host Overview key investment ideas 22 tries perform- countries dominating in the past three decades, this year’s co-hosting by Asset allocation 23 – 24 ing? They are Poland and Ukraine marks a break in the event’s history – much like the luckily not part Eurozone crisis marks a break in the currency union’s history. Key investment ideas Key of the Eurozone’s This provides a good backdrop for a closer look at how Central and woes. Poland is a Eastern European countries are performing. They are – luckily enough, notable success one might add – not part of the Eurozone. Kilian Reber gives an in- Financial markets overview story.” depth analysis in the Focus article and this month’s interview partner is Overview 25 Professor Leszek Balcerowicz, former Polish Deputy Prime Minister, Economy 26 – 29 Finance Minister and central bank President, who explains Poland’s Equities 30 – 40 success story and delivers his thoughts on the euro. Bonds 41 – 45 Currencies 46 – 47 Commodities 48 – 49 Real estate 50 – 51 Nontraditional asset classes 52 – 53 Technical analysis 54 Andreas Höfert overview Financial markets UBS Chief Economist Explanations, appendix, disclosures, publication data 55 – 58 You will find a comprehensive glossary of technical terms on the internet site www.ubs.com/glossary If you require further information on the instruments or issuers mentioned in this publication, or you require general information on UBS Chief Investment Office (CIO) Wealth Management Research (WMR) including research policies and statistics regarding past recommendations, please contact either your Client Advisor or the mailbox <[email protected]> giving your country of residence. Please see important disclaimer and disclosures in the “Important Disclosures” section (page 56 – 58). UBS Financial Services Inc. analysts did not provide any content relating to equity or debt securities, or issuers of equity or debt securities, contained in this report. This report has been prepared by UBS AG and UBS Financial Services Inc. UBS Financial Services Inc. is a subsidiary of UBS AG. ∙ “UBS investor’s guide,” a UBS CIO WM Research publi cation for private clients, is published monthly, on Fridays, in German, French, Italian and English. ∙ The pub- lication is available by e-mail and in some instances as a printed edition. If you wish to subscribe, please contact your UBS client advisor. ∙ Details regarding the information contained in this publication, restrictions on distribution and other legal considerations are given on pages 55–57. ∙ In all cases we advise before selling or buying a product or financial market instrument mentioned in this publication that you contact your client The next issue of UBS investor’s guide appears advisor and first consult the corresponding risk information.∙ Price information for more than 600,000 financial market instruments is available at on 8 June 2012.
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