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Country Profile, Poland Update October 2008 COUNTRY PROFILE, POLAND Introduction and Country Background 2 Banking Environment 4 Financial Authorities 5 Legal & Regulatory Issues 5 Market Dominant Banks 5 Clearing Systems 5 Payments & Collections Methods & Instruments 5 Electronic Banking 5 Cash Pooling Solutions 5 Tax Issues 5 Source and Contacts 5 Page 1 of 6 Country profile, Poland Introduction and Country Background Despite a sharp drop Key Facts in religious obser- vance in recent years, Capital - Major Cities Warsaw – Lódz, Kraków, Wroclaw Poland remains one Area 312,685 km2 of the most devoutly Population 38.12m (12-2007 estimate) religious countries in Languages Europe Polish Currency PLN (Polish zloty) Telephone Code +48 2008 — 1, 11 Nov; 25-26 Dec National/ Bank 2009 — 1 Jan; 13 Apr; 1-3*, 21 May; 11 Jun; 15 Aug; 1, Holidays 11 Nov; 25-26 Dec Bank Hours 9.00–16.00 Mon–Fri, 9:00-15:00 Sat Business Hours 7:00–15:00 or 8.00–16.00 Mon-Fri Stock Exchange Warsaw Stock Exchange Leading Share Index WIG20 Overall Share Index WIG Index * Note it is usually impossible to do any business on 2 May as most government offices, banks, shops, etc are closed on this date. This extended holiday period is known as The Picnic (Majówka). Since joining the Economic Performance European Union, many Poles have left 2004 2005 2006 2007 their country to work Exchange Rate – PLN/EUR1 4.5340 4.0254 3.1025 3.7845 in other EU countries Exchange Rate – PLN/USD1 3.65 3.2348 3.8951 2.7692 (particularly Ireland Money Market Rate (%)1 5.83 5.25 4.1 4.627 and the UK) because Consumer Inflation (%)2 3.5 2.1 0.9 2.3 of high unemploy- Unemployment Rate (%)3 19.5 18.2 14.0 11.4 ment, which is cur- rently the second- GDP (PLN billions) 923.3 980.9 1,049.2 1,119.4 4 highest in the EU GDP (USD billions) 252.7 303.2 269.4 351.3 GDP Volume Growth (%)2 5.3 3.4 5.0 4.5 GDP Per Capita (USD) 6,085 7,170 8,655 9,214 Current Account (% of GDP) -4.2 -1.4 -1.7 -1.9 Sources: International Monetary Fund, Central Statistical Office, Poland, National Bank of Poland, European Central Bank 1 Period average 2 Year on year 3 Per annum (seasons adjusted) 4 Per average exchange rate An early election has Government seen, yet again, a single term gov- Legislature Regime ernment be unseated Poland is a republic. The parliamentary structure is bicameral: Page 2 of 6 Danske Bank Country profile, Poland • The Lower Chamber (Sejm) has 460 members elected for 4-year terms • The Upper Chamber (Senat) consists of 100 members likewise elected for four year terms • Election takes place via a proportional representation system. Last elections held on October 2007. The next lower house (Sejm) elections are due to be held by October 2011. Head of State President Lech Kaczyński, of the Law and Justice Party, PiS (social conservativ- ism) since 2005. Next presidential election 2010. Political Leader An early election was held in October 2007 with the Civic Platform, PO (liberal conservatism) soundly defeating the former ruling Law and Justice Party. This continues a trend since 1989 that no government in Poland has managed to rule for more than one term. Voter turnout, though still low, was nearly 53.8%, the highest since Poland’s the historic election in 1989 (and up from 13.2% in the 2005 elections). The Law and Justice Party’s former coalition partners, the so- called Self-Defence party and the League of Polish Families, fell below the 5% hur- dle and so will not be represented in parliament. Donald Tusk, leader of PO, was officially designated Prime Minister on November 9 and took office on Novebmer 16, 2007. He formed a coalition majority government with the Polish People’s Party, PSL, (centrist, agrarian). European Union Poland joined the EU on 1 May 2004 and is expected to adopt the euro in 2012- 2013. Page 3 of 6 Danske Bank Country profile, Poland Banking Environment Further consolidation Overview of the Polish banking sector depends on Introduction the situation between The banking environment in Poland has changed significantly over the past 10–15 foreign banks on a years. From 1989 to 1992, rather hectic competition flourished in the absence of European and global a suitable legal framework as nine commercial banks spun off from the National scale Bank of Poland in 1989. In the beginning and in the mid of the nineties, the banks restructured, and an institutional framework was put in place. Since the mid- 1990s, the Polish banking market has experienced constant consolidation. The total number of banks has dropped by almost 60% since 1995. In 1998, the market was fully liberalised, which soon attracted strategic foreign investors. There was a significant drive towards retail banking based on the grow- ing electronic capacity and the need for higher profit. Significant progress has been made in this direction as banking supervision capacity has developed in support of safety and soundness. Likewise, major institutional efforts have been made by regu- lators and market players in support of financial sector stability. Sector Figures As of September 2008 there are 55 domestic commercial banks and 23 branches of credit institutions, approximately 500 cooperative banks and 20 representative offices of foreign banks and credit institutions. Collectively the cooperative banks have about 6% of Polish banks' total assets; they consequently play only a minor role in the market. 11 commercial banks are under state control, of which 4 banks were under the control of the State Treasury (2 directly and 2 in-directly). In 2007, foreign investors (from 19 countries) hold a majority interest in 44 do- mestic commercial banks or approximately 66% (2008) of the sector, in contrast to say the Czech Republic and Slovakia where the vast majority of local banks are foreign owned. Further consolidation on that market mainly depends on the situa- tion between foreign banks on a European and global scale Recent Years Mergers of Western European banks that control Polish banks subsequently force Polish banks to merge. A prime example of this situation is the case of UniCredit Group’s acquisition of HVB Group. UniCredit is the strategic investor in Peka and HVB controls Bank BPH, the second and third largest banks, respectively, in Po- land. Despite the support of the Polish Supervisory Commission, EU Commission and the EU competition authority, the merger could not proceed as planned due to political roadblocking by the then Polish right wing government who were initially against the merger out of fear of job cuts, stifled competition within the banking industry, and increased foreign ownership. An agreement was struck between UniCredit and the then Polish government, which called for UniCredit to sell off 200 of BPH’s 485 branches, while moving the corporate banking, investment funds and stockbroking parts of BPH into Pekao. Pekao ended up taking about 1.3 million clients, leaving BPH with 650,000. What remained of BPH was sold to GE Money Page 4 of 6 Danske Bank Country profile, Poland for €625m. GE and BPH will be one-fifth the size of Pekao. The market share concentration ratios of the 5 largest banks for assets, deposits and lending is 48.3%, 55.5% and 45.6% respectively. In spite of fears of stifled competition, the asset concentration level in the bank sector, measured both with the discrete concentration ratios of 5, 10, and 15 banks, and with the Herfindahl- Hirschman (HH) index1 decreased according the to the National Bank of Poland in 2006, due to a more rapid growth of small banks. These indices in Poland are rela- tively low compared to the majority of EU countries. The concentration level of banking services on the Polish market is in fact the lowest among countries that joined the EU together with Poland. Bad debts have increase substantially in the first half of 2008 as a result of lax mortgage lending standards by one in three Polish banks. Thus the Polish banking sector may soon face a period of contraction. Sector Wide Agreements The Basel II framework, based on EU directives adopted in June 2006 and numer- ous interpretation guidelines issued by the Committee of European Banking Super- visors, entered into force in 2007. However, the framework will not be adopted simultaneously in all banks, as individual banks may choose not to introduce the new rules until the beginning of 2008. Poland may be able to Central Bank adopt the euro by 2012 Background The Polish Central Bank is ‘The National Bank of Poland’ (Narodowy Bank Polski, NBP). The governing bodies of the National Bank of Poland are the President of the NBP, the Monetary Policy Council (MPC) and the Management Board of the NBP. The MPC determines monetary policy guidelines and the basic principles of their implementation as set out by law in 1997. The number one goal of the MPC is to maintain price stability – clearly defined as ‘to stabilise the inflation rate at the level of 2.5% with a permissible fluctuation band of +/- 1 percentage point’. The NBP further strives at achieving a position as a significant economic research centre, domestically as well as within the European System of Central Banks. Currency Poland is – like any other EU country – a member of the European System of Central Banks (ESCB). After Poland’s accession of the EU, the country will join the Euro- pean Monetary Union (the euro) as quickly as possible.
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