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Seia for Dube Tradeport Cottonlands Tradezone 4 SEIA FOR DUBE TRADEPORT COTTONLANDS INDUSTRIAL PARK – DRAFT 1 FOR COMMENT – 27/02/2017 Socio Economic Impact Assessment Tradezone 4 (Cottonlands) - 2016 DUBE TRADEPORT COTTONLANDS INDUSTRIAL PARK SOCIO- ECONOMIC IMPACT ASSESSMENT Page 1 of 62 SEIA FOR DUBE TRADEPORT COTTONLANDS INDUSTRIAL PARK – DRAFT 1 FOR COMMENT – 27/02/2017 Prepared by: Urban-Econ Development Economists P O Box 50834, Musgrave, 4062 Tel: 031-202 9673 Email: [email protected] Prepared for: Element Consulting Engineers PO Box 1071, Westville, Durban,3630 Tel: 031 266 9699 Page 2 of 62 SEIA FOR DUBE TRADEPORT COTTONLANDS INDUSTRIAL PARK – DRAFT 1 FOR COMMENT – 27/02/2017 TABLE OF CONTENTS 1 Introduction ................................................................................................................................................................ 5 2 Spatial Analysis ........................................................................................................................................................ 10 3 Socio-Economic Profile ........................................................................................................................................... 15 4 General Market Trends ............................................................................................................................................ 18 5 Office, Residential, Retail and Industrial Trend Analysis ...................................................................................... 22 6 Market Assessment .................................................................................................................................................. 38 7 Socio-Economic Impact Assessment .................................................................................................................... 49 8 Recommendations .................................................................................................................................................. 57 Page 3 of 62 SEIA FOR DUBE TRADEPORT COTTONLANDS INDUSTRIAL PARK – DRAFT 1 FOR COMMENT – 27/02/2017 9 Mount Moreland – Socio-Economic Trend Analysis ............................................................................................. 60 Page 4 of 62 SEIA FOR DUBE TRADEPORT COTTONLANDS TRADEZONE 4 1 INTRODUCTION INTRODUCTION Dube Tradeport is centred around a 60-year masterplan which is illustrated in the image below, utilises 2 040 ha greenfield site. The first phase has been completed by the KwaZulu-Natal (KZN) provincial Government and Airports Company South Africa (ACSA), with an investment of R 8 billion. Dube Tradeport consists of four strategic development zones. These include; Dube Cargo Terminal, Dube Trade zone, Dube City and Dube Agri-Zone. Trade Zone 4 falls outside Dube City, located just 5 kilometres south west of KSIA and is proposed to include premium office, retail, residential and industrially serviced area in an urban precinct. This business support function forms an important aspect of the strategic plans for Dube Tradeport to be positioned as South Africa’s premier logistics platform. Map 1: Dube Tradeport 60 Year Masterplan Source: Dube Tradeport, 2014 PURPOSE OF THE STUDY The purpose of this study is to determine the potential socio-economic impact of the proposed Trade Zone 4 development on the neighbouring areas of Dube Tradeport (Verulam, Tongaat, La Mercy and surrounds) through an initial scoping process, followed by a detailed input into the EIA process. Page 5 of 62 SEIA FOR DUBE TRADEPORT COTTONLANDS TRADEZONE 4 The socio-economic impact assessment is a key requirement for the Economic Impact Assessment (EIA) process prescribed by the National Environmental Management ACT (NEMA) of 1998, as amended. REPORT METHODOLOGY The following figure illustrates the methodology used in undertaking the study. Figure 1: Report methodology Orientation and Policy Review The purpose of the first step was aimed at obtaining all background information pertaining to the study area and the proposed project. An intensive work session with the client and project stakeholders aimed at gaining clarity on: Existing role players and interested/affected parties; Existing information and studies previously undertaken within the study area; Timeframe and measurable deliverables and milestones. Page 6 of 62 SEIA FOR DUBE TRADEPORT COTTONLANDS TRADEZONE 4 It was necessary to delineate the area into primary and secondary areas based on the information overview and on close consultation with the client and other professional teams. It was also crucial to undertake site visits for orientation purposes but also to obtain site specific intelligence. Baseline Information and Trend Analysis The purpose of this step was to review and collate all data to be able to compile a practical and up-to-date quantitative profile of the study area to serve as baseline for the SAM modelling exercise. It is important to define the study area as a sub-region and therefore the profile of the larger region must be interpreted and refined as a sub-regional socio-economic profile. Development Projections Projections were undertaken and derived from national growth rates; sectoral production trends as well as realistic local sectoral growth expectations resulting from physical, nodal and other planned changes in the area. These changes feature as a structural adjustment of the economy over time. The focus was to develop options, taking cognisance of the following: Sectoral and structural economic changes; Strategic development projects; Infrastructural planning; The type and extent of activities and land-uses; The type of economic activities and potential projects; Density of land uses and activities. Demographic and socio-economic trends: Population projections were made based on existing demographic knowledge and models. These were augmented with the verification data and up-to-date growth expectations. These focussed on the regional economic growth expectations due to proposed projects and development initiatives. Economic Development Potential: The development potential of the economy was determined and in doing so the historical growth trends and the strengths and weaknesses of the economy was addressed. A list of priority and growth areas of the sub-regional economy that reflects the highest level of development potential and comparative advantages was compiled. The economic information was interpreted in terms of the impact on the household sector. The underlying principle is that economic growth will act as stimulus for urban growth and hence domestic demand for services and infrastructure. The potential analyses conducted were interpreted in terms of economic development opportunities. These opportunities reflected the inherent development potential of the economy and in exploiting these opportunities, the development potential of the economy can be maximised. These opportunities are presented as various development scenarios. Page 7 of 62 SEIA FOR DUBE TRADEPORT COTTONLANDS TRADEZONE 4 Impact Modelling The focus of this step is to determine the economic benefits and impacts of the proposed project to the area and broader region. A computerised model framework based on Urban-Econ’s in-house Input-Output Model was set up and calibrated in accordance with the principles underlying the following User Requirements Specifications (URS): Spatial allocation options Economic growth and multiplier analysis Scenario simulation Sensitivity analysis This impact modelling was done by populating the SAM model with the quantified potential effects of the project to quantify the spin-off effects in the economy. This illustrates the total benefit and dis-benefit, as well as the net impact of the project over time. When considering the impact of proposed interventions, several economic and user impacts can be distinguished. These include: o Direct user impacts o Indirect and Induced impacts o Construction and maintenance spending impact Comparative Analysis of Options The purpose of this step was to take cognisance of all work and simulation modelling done up to this stage and undertake a comparative and integrated evaluation of options. Net economic impacts: Any development can be associated with both positive and negative economic impacts, where the former represents the increase in value added, employment, income, and tax base that would result from the proposed project, while the latter reflects the loss of economic values by the existing establishments as a result of the implementation of the proposed project. Since the extent of positive and negative impacts can differ significantly, it is important that the net effect is determined, particularly when comparing different options. The focus of this step was to integrate the assessments conducted in the previous steps to compare the total direct and indirect effects, to provide a basis for decision making and selection of options. The analysis determined and quantified the extent and magnitude of the impacts and effects. The various measures of economic impacts have very different interpretations: Total employment reflects the number of additional jobs created by economic growth. This is the most popular measure of economic impact because it is easier to comprehend than large, abstract Rand figures. The total employment can be interpreted in terms of generally accepted definitions of job creation. Aggregate personal income rises as pay levels rise and/or additional workers are hired. Either or both of these conditions
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