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The Arctic, the Fastest-Warming Place On

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The Arctic, the Fastest-Warming Place On Warming ampli cation in the Arctic and its global impact The key to Arctic climate change is Arctic warming ampli cation (AA). AA leads to the change in sea ice extent and then to the realization of the Arctic sea routes. It also a ects the global climate, such as atmospheric circulation, cryosphere, and the carbon cycle. Moreover, AA will alter marine chemical components and the living environment for plankton, and hence have impacts on the major sh species and sheries. AA will also Earth! in uence the mid-latitude weather and climate, and bring cold and heavy snow to Japan in winter. Arctic Climate Change The Arctic, the fastest-warming place on 1 Mechanism of warming amplication in the Arctic trial biological activity will alter the amount of atmospheric carbon led all aspects of the Arctic climate system. Comprehensive Arctic What is happening now in the Arctic, under global warming? and the warming of the ocean are expected to lead to changes not dioxide absorption by vegetation, and will a ect global warming research incorporating multidisciplinary work and collaborations Warming amplication in the Arctic Research Project In warming due to anthropogenic increases in carbon dioxide only in the physical and chemical ocean environment, but also to as feedback. Although it is far away from Japan, we cannot turn a between observation and modeling have been realized. concentration, the surface temperature in the Arctic is increasing changes of marine ecosystems. blind eye to Arctic climate change, since we are a ected by it, too. Here we will report the scienti c results achieved. In the proj- with a speed that is more than double the global average. We call Looking at the land area, many glaciers distributed around the In order to grasp these abrupt changes in the Arctic, to under- ect, four strategic research targets were presented and the outcomes Surface albedo Rapid Change of the Arctic Climate this “Arctic warming ampli cation,” and an understanding of its Arctic are retreating. e Greenland ice sheet, the largest ice mass stand the mechanism, and to contribute to future climate change for each target are described on the following pages. Finally, the Heat Cloud Black mechanism is urgently needed. in the northern hemisphere, is also melting markedly, and the ow- 2 Arctic system for transport carbon 4 Projection of sea ice projection, we conducted the Green Network of Excellence Program mutual relationships between each target and a synthesis of “Rapid Reduction of sea ice extent in the Arctic Ocean is continuing, out or collapse from its terminal glacier is serious. is will be a global climate and Glacier Snow Sea ice distribution and Arctic microorganisms System and its Global In uences (GRENE) Arctic Climate Change Research Project “Rapid Change Change of the Arctic Climate System and its Global In uences” are future change sea routes and an abrupt decrease since the 2000s is especially noticeable. concern in terms of the world sea level rise. Moreover, the duration of the Arctic Climate System and its Global In uences” for ve shown in the ow diagram on the back page. Owing to this change, potential for regular ship navigation through of the snow season is decreasing. In such ways, snow and ice have years between 2011 and 2016. 39 institutes all over Japan have par- • Intensication of • Change of sea ice the Arctic Ocean have increased, and they have become broadly been showing great changes, and thus great impacts on atmospheric atmospheric circulation distribution and known as “Arctic sea routes.” e reduction of the sea ice extent circulation and terrestrial biology are foreseen. Changes in terres- ticipated in the project, and more than 360 Japanese scientists tack- rafting eect GRENE Arctic Climate Change Research Project • Change of heat transport Increase of extreme events • Change of thermohaline Summary of outcomes, 2011–2016 • Reduction of circulation and Stratospheric circulation ocean circulation heat budget Stratospheric circulation 2.0 Surface air temperature change • Change of snow area • Inuence on mid-latitude • Ocean acidication (from the data of UK Met. Oce) • Stratosphere-troposphere • Change of primary • Projection of sea ice interaction 1.5 production Average in the Arctic • Change of atmos. circulation extent and Arctic sea • Sea level rise by glacier routes (north of 60°N) and ice-sheet melting 1.0 Tropospheric circulation • Cold wave and heavy • Change of primary Tropospheric circulation snow in Japan species of sh • Change of carbon cycle 0.5 Stratosphere– • Change of CO2 sink 3 a Impacts on weather 3 b Impacts on marine Stratosphere– Troposphere interaction Troposphere interaction in Japan ecosystem and sheries Surface change air temperature 0.9°C 2.0°C 0.0 since the beginning of the 20th century the beginning since (°C) Global average Map of GRENE-Arctic observation activities -0.5 Retreating Suntar-Khayata 0° 15°W 30°W 45°W 60°W 75°W 90°W 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 Mountain Glacier in Siberia 10 Terrestrial ecosystem Observation region Atmospheric heating Simulation Atmospheric heating (Photo by Hiroyuki Enomoto, National Atmosphere ) 8 2 (AR4, SRES A1B) Impact of the Institute of Polar Research) Simulation Impact of the Cryosphere km Arctic warming 15°E 105°W 6 (AR5, RCP4.5) Arctic warming Warming amplication Cloud 6 Warming amplication Cloud on the mid latitude Ice-albedo Greenhouse gas on the mid latitude Ice-albedo CO2 feedback CH4 in the Arctic CO2 feedback CH4 in the Arctic Marine ecosystem 4 Churchill Sea Ice and ocean environment Sea ice area (10 Sea area ice 2 Snow survey lines Ice-albedo Ice-albedo Hiiumaa LSSL Permafrost survey lines Change of sea ice area in September (from the IPCC reports) feedback 30°E Saaremaa 120°W 0 feedback Helsinki Qaanaaq Fort Smith Snow Hyyti ä l ä Airliner Snow Ice-sheet Ny-Ålesund (Upper) The mean surface Ice-sheet Kaarina Fort Providence Snow Cloud-sea ice Sodankyla Solid-lines (yellow, orange, pink, blue): Ship air temperature in the Snow Cloud-sea ice Glacier interaction Nurmes Kevo Glacier interaction Vario Arctic has clearly increased Sea ice Norman Wells twice as rapidly as that of Sea ice About the project 45°E Inuvik 135°W the global mean, both in Prudhoe Bay Arctic Climate Change Research Project: the last 100 years and in the Rapid Change of the Arctic Climate System Black carbon Icebreakers’ Poker Flat last 40 years. Black carbon Degrading underground and its Global In uences observation area (Lower) The Arctic sea ice ice (yedoma) in the per- Barrow Anchorage “Green Network of Excellence” (GRENE) extent in September has mafrost zone of the North Fairbanks Program by Ministry of Education, Culture, decreased faster than what Slope, Alaska Sports, Science & Technology, Japan (MEXT) 60°E 150°W has been simulated by cli- (Courtesy of Masao Uchida, National Core Institute: National Institute of Polar Tundra Ship mate models. Moreover, Tundra Ship Institute for Environmental Studies; Go Research Boreal forest Iwahana, International Arctic Research MIRAI MR15-03 the decrease is projected to Boreal forest Center) Associated Institute: Japan Agency for MIRAI MR14-05 continue through the 21st (Permafrost) Tiksi Chokurdakh Marine-Earth Science and Technology (Permafrost) Tura MIRAI MR13-06 century. Period: July 2011—March 2016 Ocean-sea ice Impact on Mirny S.W.L http://www.nipr.ac.jp/grene/ Ocean-sea ice Impact on MIRAI interaction marine ecosystem 75°E Yakutsk HAKUHO MARU 165°W interaction marine ecosystem Oymyakon MR12-E03 For further details: Final Report of GRENE Glaciers in Suntar-Khayata region Arctic Climate Change Research Project (Japanese edition only) OSHORO MARU Editing/Publication Inter-university Research Institute Corporation Marine ecosystem Research Organization of Information and Systems Marine ecosystem National Institute of Polar Research 10-3 Midori-cho, Tachikawa-shi, Tokyo 190-8518, Japan Ocean circulation 90°E 180° Telephone: +81-42-512-0922 Ocean circulation http://www.nipr.ac.jp Japan Issued Japan August 31, 2016 Front cover: Meltwater stream over a glacier surface darkened by glacier microorganisms in Greenland 105°E 120°E 135°E 150°E 165°E (Photo by Shin Sugiyama, Hokkaido Univ.) Pre-warming On-warming Greenhouse Inhibition of Strategic Research Targets 2 Understanding the Arctic system for global climate and future change Strategic Research Targets 1 Understanding the mechanism of warming ampli cation in the Arctic eect convention Strategic Research Targets 4 Projection of sea ice distribution and Arctic sea routes Sunlight High sensitivity Warming at surface Sea ice Cloud Sea ice to the temperature and snow and snow increase Arctic change is advancing with Quanti cation of relative contribution to Arctic Ocean e Arctic sea routes: Sea ice melt and temperature rise Warming Relaxation of warming potential global in uence. warming ampli cation factors and their seasonality. Summer JUN-JUL Increase in absorbed AUG-SEP Increase in ocean heat NOV-JAN Heat release from the Feasible for sustainable use. sunlight due to retreat of storage ocean to the atmosphere. sea ice and exposure of Trapping of heat near the e land and ocean in the Arctic have an by ecosystem model simulations, which tent may lead to extreme events such as By analyzing future climate change projection datasets simu- mer. Its additional heat warms the land surface, though part of sea surface surface, increase in cloud, etc. We have proposed empirical method to ice from satellite-derived high-accuracy good forecast of the timing of summer important role in the uptake of CO2 from suggests that CO2 uptake by the Arctic heavy snowfall in mid-latitude regions lated by a number of climate models from the Coupled Model this enhances surface evaporation and reduces surface warming. estimate timing of disappearance of sea sea ice motion data.
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