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Price Target Sensitivity Discounted Cash Alpha Challenge Long EVEN Construtora e Incorporadora S.A. (EVEN3.BZ) Short KB Homes (NYSE: KBH) Steve Schembri, Bradley Murray, Gustav Karlsson 18th November, 2011 Recommendation Long EVEN Construtora Short KB Homes • Current Price: R$ 6.38 • Current Price: $7.51 • Target Price: R$ 12.29 • Target Price: $4.97 • Target Return: +93% • Target Return: +34% • Position Size: R$ 50 million • Position Size: $25 million • Thesis (Fundamentals) • Thesis (Event Driven) 1. Secular tailwinds 1. Serious liquidity concerns 2. Mid-income segment focus 2. Inventory in hardest hit areas 3. Best-in-class capital allocation 3. Exposure to first-time buyers 4. Incentivized leadership 4. Structural problems in market 5. Supportive valuation 5. Low inventory vis-à-vis peers • Catalysts • Catalysts 1. Q4 inflation inflection point 1. Potential S&P downgrade 2. Prudent monetary policy 2. Dividend cut 3. Analyst upward revision 3. Failed bond auction in 2012 4. Q411E CF underperformance Agenda Long EVEN Construtora • Macro Outlook: Brazil • Buy Recommendation Short KB Homes • Macro Outlook: US • Sell Recommendation Macro Outlook BRAZIL Favorable Macroeconomic Tailwinds Population, Unemployment, Real GDP • Young and growing population Millions growth • 100mm people (50% of country) 210 15% between 20 and 59 years old 200 10% • Average GDP growth of 3.6% 190 5% over the past 10 years 180 0% • Unemployment rate at 6% 170 -5% 1 • Low leverage among consumer 2004 05 06 07 08 09 10 11F 12F 13F base Population (LHS) Unemployment (RHS) Real GDP (RHS) Mortgage Debt / GDP (2009) 100% 80% • Increased consumer purchasing 60% power 40% • Ability to “lever up” 20% 0% UK USA Chile Spain Brazil China Korea France Turkey Poland Mexico Canada Portugal Thailand Australia Germany Argentina Hong KongHong New ZealandNew Source: Bloomberg; Broker research: DB (19 Aug 2010) 1. Interpreted as mortgage debt / GDP Driving Robust Real Estate Market Funding supply to real estate (2004-10) • Banks required to direct 65% of R$ bn reserves to real estate loans 80 • Employees required to deposit 8% 60 of monthly paycheck into FTGS • Currently receiving c. 3% APR 40 • Withdrawals upon (I) retirement (II) 20 layoffs (III) real estate investment • 0 Housing deficit of 6.3 million units 2004 05 06 07 08 09 10E (target build of one million/yr) FTGS (Employee Savings Accounts • Streamlined application process guarantee fund) making home ownership easier Delinquency rates on mortgages (2000-10) 15% • Ease of credit access for average consumer 10% • Greater affordability has led to lower delinquency rates 5% 0% Source: Broker research: DB (19 Aug 2010); ABECIP Prudent Monetary Policy Effective SELIC rate vs BOVESPA Inflation (CPI) Expectations Homebuilder Index* Index: Jan 07 = 1 SELIC rate cut in 8.0% Actual Forecast 1.4 August 2010 from 16% 12.5% to 12% 7.0% 1.2 14% 12% 6.0% 1.0 10% 5.0% 0.8 8% 4.0% Critical inflection 0.6 point for inflation 6% 3.0% 0.4 4% 2.0% 0.2 2% 1.0% 0.0 0% 0.0% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 10 10 11 11 11 11 12 12 12 BOVESPA Homebuilder SELIC Rate (RHS) Index (LHS) JPMorgan HSBC Banco Votorantim Quest Investimentos Note: * Includes Gafisa, MVR, Brookfield, PDG, and Rossi Barclays Capital Source: Capital IQ; Bloomberg Recommendation (Long – Fundamental) EVEN CONSTRUTORA Company Overview Equity Price R$ 6.38 Market Capitalization R$ 1,488.41 Enterprise Value R$ 2,455.18 • Major Brazilian homebuilder LTM Revenue R$ 1,925.72 14 LTM EBITDA R$ 303.17 exclusively focused on middle- Cash on Hand R$ 381.94 12 income segment Inventory R$ 757.04 10 • Operations in Sao Paulo (60%) and Southwest Brazil (40%) 8 6 • In 2009, launched Open, which provides EVEN with greater 4 access to lower mid-income 2 market 0 5/29/2008 5/29/2009 5/29/2010 5/29/2011 Financial Overview 2011YTD Sales Breakdown R$ m Unit Value (R$ ‘000s) 2,500 20% 5% 150-200 18% 11% OPEN 2,000 15% 2% 200-350 1,500 350-500 10% 9% 1,000 500-1,100 500 5% 16% 39% 1,100-1,600 EVEN 0 0% Above 1,600 2007 08 09 10 LTM Commercial Revenue (LHS) Operating Margin (RHS) Source: Bloomberg; Company accounts; Company annual reports Comparable Analysis Brazilian Homebuilder Group Comparables Table Mkt Cap Net Debt to 2011E YoY 2011E LTM LTM P/TBV Company Name Ticker PRICE ($ MM) LTM EBITDA Rev Growth EBITDA Margin ROIC ROE CY10 CY11E CY12E Homebuilder Peer Group Gafisa S.A. GFSA3 R$ 5.60 R$ 2,429.73 5.4x 15.4% 16.2% 5.5% 5.2% 0.7x 0.6x 0.6x Brookfield Incorporacoes SA BISA3 R$ 6.00 R$ 2,661.22 3.6x 8.0% 21.1% 8.5% 9.7% 1.2x 1.0x 0.8x Rossi Residencial S.A. RSID3 R$ 10.15 R$ 2,705.36 4.7x 24.2% 16.6% 4.7% 9.9% 1.1x 0.9x 0.8x Tecnisa S.A. TCSA3 R$ 10.35 R$ 1,684.74 3.1x 29.0% 21.3% 7.9% 12.5% 1.7x 1.3x 1.1x Cyrela Brazil Realty S.A CYRE3 R$ 14.39 R$ 5,928.34 5.6x 16.7% 14.1% 5.1% 8.4% 1.4x 1.2x 1.1x MRV Engenharia e Participações s.a. MRVE3 R$ 11.11 R$ 5,417.15 1.5x 36.2% 25.0% 12.9% 15.3% 1.9x 1.5x 1.2x EZTEC Empreendimentos e Participacoes SA EZTC3 R$ 15.00 R$ 2,169.93 - 1.0x 43.8% 33.4% 17.7% 15.3% 2.0x 1.6x 1.3x Homebuilder Peer Median -- -- R$ 2,661.22 3.6x 24.2% 21.1% 7.9% 9.9% 1.4x 1.2x 1.1x Even Construtora e Incorporadora S.A. EVEN3 R$ 6.38 R$ 1,488.45 3.1x -12.8% 15.9% 6.8% 16.7% 1.1x 1.0x 0.9x 2011 EBITDA Margin 2011 ROE 2011 P/TBV 40% 18% 16.7% 1.8x 1.6x 15.3% 15.3% 35% 33.4% 16% 1.6x 1.5x 14% 1.4x 1.3x 30% 12.5% 1.2x 25.0% 12% 1.2x 25% 1.0x 21.3% 9.9% 9.7% 1.0x 21.1% 10% 1.0x 0.9x 20% 8.4% 16.6% 16.2% 15.9% 8% 0.8x 14.1% 0.6x 15% 6% 5.2% 0.6x 10% 4% 0.4x 5% 2% 0.2x 0% 0% 0.0x EZTC3 MRVE3 TCSA3 BISA3 RSID3 GFSA3 EVEN3 CYRE3 EVEN3 MRVE3 EZTC3 TCSA3 RSID3 BISA3 CYRE3 GFSA3 EZTC3 MRVE3 TCSA3 CYRE3 BISA3 EVEN3 RSID3 GFSA3 Source: Company accounts; Bloomberg Investment Rationale I. Attractive secular story • Great macroeconomic outlook coupled with rising consumer purchasing power II. Strategy focused on highly-attractive middle-income segment • Ability to pass through costs while maintaining growth profile III. Best-in-class capital allocation • Industry leading asset turnover + 20% internal hurdle rate → top tier ROE ratio IV. Incentivized Leadership Team • CEO holds 8.84% shares outstanding representing a value of R$ 132m, not including options V. Trading at discount to both peers and 3-yr historical valuations • Buying equity at P/TBV of 0.95x provides downside support Target Price and Sensitivity Analysis Discounted Cash Flow Price Target Sensitivity Discount Rate (%) 14.5% PV FCF Equity (2011-18) (R$m) 1477.09 WACC (%) PV Terminal Value of Equity (R$m) 1390.87 12.29 12.5% 13.5% 14.5% 15.5% 16.5% 17.5% 1.4% 13.49 12.40 11.48 10.70 10.02 9.43 DCF (R$m) 2867.96 2.4% 13.92 12.71 11.71 10.86 10.14 9.51 Shares Outstanding (m) 233.30 3.4% 14.45 13.08 11.97 11.05 10.27 9.60 Price Target (R$) 12.29 (%) Growth TV 4.4% 15.10 13.54 12.29 11.27 10.42 9.71 5.4% 15.95 14.11 12.69 11.54 10.61 9.83 Current Price (R$) 6.38 6.4% 17.08 14.85 13.18 11.88 10.83 9.98 Price Target (Base) 12.29 93% 7.4% 18.66 15.84 13.82 12.29 11.11 10.16 Price Target (Upside) 16.68 161% Note: Base Case Sensitivity Price Target (Downside) 4.81 -25% • Inputs and assumptions guided by discussions with management Base Case • 1 day incremental improvement in receivable, inventory, and payable days Upside Case • Real GDP growth rate ramping up to 6% by 2013, leading to buoyant demand for launches • 2.5 day incremental deterioration in receivable, inventory, and payable days Downside Case • Negative real GDP growth and labor/material cost pressure squeezing gross margins Catalysts I. Inflation turns the corner I. Inflation expected to go from 7.1% in Q3 to 6.4% in Q4 II. All economists expect a decline, marking an important inflection point II. Accommodative monetary policy I. Easing inflation concern leading to additional monetary easing throughout 2012 III. Multiple expansion on analyst upward revisions I. Analysts concerned with increasing land acquisition costs given rapid asset turnover. Conversations with management indicate degree of concern may be unfounded II. Potential for diminished concerns within the next couple quarters Risks and Mitigants Risks Mitigants • Land price appreciation may lead to • Management believes concern over reduction in cash flow increasing land prices may diminish over time • Increased competition for resources • Management recognizes the issue and (exacerbated by World Cup and remains focused on supplier relationships Olympics) leading to higher labor and material costs • Overheating in economy, forcing BCB to • Management actively monitoring raise rates economy via internal economic advisors • Market risks (e.g.
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