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Markets Overview Wednesday, 21 April, 2021 [email protected] Global Economics & Markets Research Email: [email protected] URL: www.uob.com.sg/research Markets Overview HIGHLIGHTS AHEAD . Early focus will be on Australia’s retail sales data for March at 9.30am SGT. In the UK, inflation data for March will be rolled out. The US economic docket will kick off on Wednesday with MBA mortgage applications for the week ending 16 April. Earlier this morning, New Zealand’s 1Q21 CPI came in at 1.5% y/y, in line with expectations and slightly above the 1.4% y/y reading previously. Meanwhile, the q/q reading recovered well above the previous quarter’s 0.5% q/q print to 0.8% q/q, also in line with market consensus. Singapore announced reduced entry approvals and extended isolation measures for travellers from India, amid the spike in COVID-19 cases in the world’s second most populous country. The new measures will be effective on Thursday (22 April 2021), where all inbound travellers who had been to India recently will be subjected to an extra seven days of home isolation, following a mandatory 14-day quarantine at a government-designated facility. There are no notable data in the Asian docket today. CENTRAL BANK OUTLOOK . The US economy is going to temporarily see “a little higher” inflation this year as the economy strengthens and supply constraints push up prices in some sectors, but the Federal Reserve is committed to keeping any overshoot within limits, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said in an 8 April letter. “We do not seek inflation that substantially exceeds 2 percent, nor do we seek inflation above 2 percent for a prolonged period,” Powell told Senator Rick Scott in a five-page letter responding to a 24 March letter from the Florida Republican raising concerns about rising inflation and the Fed’s bond buying program. “I would emphasize, though, that we are fully committed to both legs of our dual mandate - maximum employment and stable prices.” . The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), in the minutes of its latest RBA meeting, emphasised that the economic recovery has further to run before the RBA will be satisfied, which supports our view that the RBA will likely announce another extension to its QE programme. The minutes acknowledged that the economic data over the past month had been stronger than the Bank had previously expected. In particular, GDP growth in 4Q20 had been above the RBA’s forecast. And the minutes highlighted concerns about surging house prices and noted that the committee would be watching lending standards “carefully”. FX . The US dollar steadied on Tuesday amid a mix of gains and losses against major currencies as interest rates in the US moved in a tight range and the outlook for vaccinations in Europe improved. After touching its lowest level in nearly seven weeks at 90.856 in Asian trading, the US dollar index (DXY) steadied thereafter before closing at 91.241. EUR/USD was net little changed around 1.2060, after reversing initial gains where the pair had risen to 1.2079. GBP/USD edged above 1.4000 (high of 1.4009) before dropping to close at 1.3938. EUR/GBP gains stalled ahead of 0.8650. USD/JPY held above 108, after trading between 107.95 and 108.54. AUD/USD fell back around 25pips from an open above 0.78, while USD/CAD moved back above 1.25. Asian FX were largely stronger against the greenback, with the Asian Dollar Index rising 0.2%. Gainers which appreciated against the greenback included the KRW (+0.44%), IDR (+0.34%), TWD (+0.26%) and MYR (+0.19%), while losses were seen in THB (-0.26%), VND (-0.03%) and INR (-0.01%). The SGD NEER is currently trading at 0.982% above the mid-point. We expect the SGD NEER to trade between +0.7% and +1.3% above the midpoint, which implies USD/SGD range of 1.3252 - 1.3333. Markets Overview Wednesday, 21 April, 2021 1 | P a g e EQUITIES . The major US equity indexes suffered back-to-back losses as reopening plays led the market lower amid renewed concerns about rising new COVID-19 cases globally. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 256.33 points (-0.75%) to 33,821.30, for its worst daily performance since 23 March. The S&P 500 fell 28.32 points (-0.68%) to 4,134.94. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite lost 128.50 points (-0.92%) to 13,786.27. The CBOE Volatility Index rose for two consecutive days, landing above 18 after hitting a 14-month low last week. Asian equities continued to stay mixed at yesterday’s closing. Bourses that rose included KOSPI (+0.7%), PSE (+0.6%), HCM (+0.6%) and KLCI (+0.5%), while other equities including STI (-0.5%), Nifty 50 (-0.4%), JCI (-0.2%) and SH COMP (-0.1%) fell. Accounting for the movements seen, the MSCI Asia Ex-Japan Index rose marginally by 0.1%. US TREASURIES/BONDS . US Treasury yields eased and held in a narrow range as market participants awaited further market developments, while the US dollar index steadied near its lowest level in about seven weeks. The closely watched part of the US Treasury yield curve measuring the gap between yields on 2- and 10-year Treasury notes, was at 140.80bps, about 1bp lower than Monday's close. Financial markets will watch the results of a $24bn auction of 20-year bonds by the US Treasury set for Wednesday. Bond yields across Asia were mixed, with the 2y- bond yields rising in Thailand (+1.4bps), Singapore (+0.4bps) and South Korea (+0.2bps) but falling in China (-2.1bps) and Indonesia (-1.2bps). In the 10y- space, yields rose in Singapore (+5.3bps), South Korea (+2.6bps) and Malaysia (+2.2bps), but fell in Thailand (-1.5bps) and India (-0.5bps). The iTraxx Asia ex-Japan investment- grade CDS fell 2.0% while iBoxx Asia rose 0.27%. Government bond issuances for today will include MAS 28d- and 84d- bills, Bank of Korea’s 2y- bonds, China’s 1y- and 10y- bonds, Thailand’s bonds due 2024 and 2035, and Malaysia’s bonds due 2024. COMMODITIES . Oil fell on Tuesday, pulling back from one-month highs, on fears that India, the world’s third-biggest oil importer, may impose restrictions as coronavirus infections and deaths soar in that country. Brent crude fell 0.72% to settle at $66.57/bbl. During the session it reached its highest since 18 March at $68.08/bbl. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude dipped 1.48% to settle at $62.44/bbl. Gold gained on Tuesday as a rise in US Treasury yields stalled and the US dollar steadied near multi-week lows. Spot gold was up 0.4% to $1,775.46/oz, after hitting $1,789.77/oz on Monday, its highest level since 25 February. ECONOMIC NEWS & DATA . German PPI showed a 3.7% y/y gain in March, up from 1.9% y/y in February. The UK’s unemployment rate unexpectedly fell for a second month in a row to 4.9% in the December-to-February period, most of which the country spent under a tight COVID-19 lockdown. Malaysia’s Chief Minister of Johor commented that his state government will propose measures to limit the movements of workers who cross the border from Johor to Singapore. Chief Minister Hasni Mohammed commented that Malaysians who cross the border will have “limited movement” in Singapore, and they are only allowed to travel to specified places and not all around Singapore. Note that Malaysia Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin is scheduled to meet Singapore Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong in May to discuss issues relating to the reopening of borders. Bank Indonesia (BI) kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at a record low of 3.5% on Tuesday (20 April 2021), as widely expected by market estimates. However, BI downgraded its 2021 GDP growth outlook to a range of between 4.1% and 5.1%, down from between 4.3% and 5.3% previously. Note that BI governor Perry Warjiyo commented that “Bank Indonesia will optimize the mix of accommodative monetary and macroprudential policies and accelerate the digitization of the payment system”. In the annual Boao Forum, China’s President Xi Jinping called for greater global economic integration and warned against decoupling. Specifically, Xi commented that the “future destiny of the world should be decided by all countries… any effort to build barriers and decouple works against economic and market principles, and would only harm others without benefiting oneself.” . Taiwan’s export orders surged 33.3% y/y to US$53.7 billion in March 2021, slightly below market estimates for a 34.9% growth. Notwithstanding the lower-than-expected growth, global demand for semiconductors, fuelled by 5G and high-performance computing, were the key supports for Taiwan’s stellar export growth. Taiwan officials commented that export orders will continue to expand between 29.8% and 33.7% in April 2021. Markets Overview Wednesday, 21 April, 2021 2 | P a g e . Producer prices in South Korea rose 3.9% y/y in March, extending positive growth for four straight months. Higher prices were led by agriculture, forestry and marine products which rose 16.5% y/y, followed by manufacturing products (+5.4% y/y) and services (+2.2% y/y). Thailand’s Finance Ministry announced its plans to submit new accommodative measures to the Cabinet in May 2021.
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