September 2013

Monthly Forecast

2 In Hindsight: Overview Penholders 3 Status Update since our August Forecast Australia will preside over the Security Council Assistance Mission in Somalia, most likely by 4 Small Arms in September. its head and Special Representative of the Sec- A debate on small arms is planned during the retary-General Nicholas Kay and AU Special 6 Central African Republic high-level week of the General Assembly. The Representative Mahamat Saleh Annadif (both Prime Minister of Australia may preside with likely to brief by videoconferencing). 7 Liberia other members likely to be represented at min- Briefings in consultations are likely on: 8 Sierra Leone isterial or higher levels. The Secretary-General is • current issues of concern, under the “horizon 10 Guinea-Bissau expected to brief and a resolution is the expected scanning” formula, by a top official from the 11 Libya outcome. Department of Political Affairs; 12 South Sudan and The quarterly debate on the situation in • Sudan and South Sudan issues, twice, on at Sudan Afghanistan is also expected, with Ján Kubiš, the least one of these occasions most likely by Special Representative of the Secretary-Gen- Special Envoy of the Secretary-General Haile 14 Somalia eral and head of the UN Assistance Mission in Menkerios; 16 Yemen Afghanistan, likely to brief. • Guinea-Bissau, by the Secretary-General’s 17 UNDOF (Golan Heights) A briefing onYemen is expected by the Sec- Special Representative and head of the UN 18 Afghanistan retary-General’s Special Advisor, Jamal Beno- Integrated Peacebuilding Office in Guinea- 20 Notable Dates mar, as well as the Secretary-General of the Gulf Bissau, José Ramos-Horta; Cooperation Council, Abdullatif bin Rashid Al- • the Secretary-General’s report on the UN Zayani, and a senior representative of Yemen. Disengagement Observer Force in the Golan Briefings, followed by consultations, are likely Heights, most likely by Under-Secretary-Gen- on: eral for Peacekeeping Operations Hervé Lad- • Liberia by Karin Landgren, the Secretary- sous; and General’s Special Representative and head • the work of the 1737 Iran Sanctions Com- of the UN Mission in Liberia (UNMIL) and mittee by its chair, Ambassador Gary Quinlan Ambassador Staffan Tillander (Sweden), chair (Australia). of the Liberia configuration of the Peacebuild- Additionally, formal sessions will be needed to ing Commission (PBC); adopt resolutions: • the Middle East, by Special Coordinator for • modifying the mandate of the UN Integrated the Middle East Peace Process Robert Serry; Peacebuilding Office in the Central African • Sierra Leone, by Jens Anders Toyberg-Fran- Republic (discussions of which have started dzen, the Executive Representative of the Sec- in August); and retary-General and head of the UN Integrated • renewing the mandate of UNMIL. Peacebuilding Office in Sierra Leone and by Throughout the month, Council members the chair of the Sierra Leone configuration of will be following closely the developments in the the PBC, Ambassador Guillermo Rishchynski Democratic Republic of the Congo, Mali and Syr- (Canada); ia, and meetings on these issues may be scheduled. • Libya by Tarek Mitri, the Special Representa- Council members will also likely be working tive of the Secretary-General and head of the on finalising the Council’sannual report to the UN Support Mission in Libya; General Assembly, drafted this year by the US. 29 August 2013 • the work of the 1970 Libya Sanctions Com- Several high-level events on issues of concern This report is available online at securitycouncilreport.org. mittee, by its chair, Ambassador Eugène-Rich- to the Security Council are expected in Septem- ard Gasana (Rwanda); and ber on the margins of the General Assembly.• For daily insights by SCR on evolving Security Council actions please • the Secretary-General’s report on the UN subscribe to our “What’s In Blue” series at whatsinblue.org or follow @SCRtweets on Twitter.

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast September 2013 securitycouncilreport.org 1 In Hindsight: Penholders

Penholder is a relatively new term in the on East Timor) or had kept their involvement situations on the agenda among themselves, Council vocabulary that started to appear in beyond their stay on the Council (for exam- assuming in each case the role nicknamed Council-related exchanges probably some ple, Canada with respect to Haiti). penholder. These arrangements have been four or five years ago. But, in principle, the The system of Groups of Friends, while informal and unwritten but, given the per- concept is not new. Ever since the end of generally efficient, garnered increasing criti- manent positions of these nations, this lead- the Cold War, when a previously paralysed cism within the Council from both perma- ership essentially remains unchanged. Council saw a dramatic increase in activity, nent and elected members, although for Our research identified over 40 penholder the Council has experimented with different different reasons. Some permanent mem- arrangements as of early 2013 (please see our ways to address the division of labour. It has bers considered the lead role of configura- February 2013 Monthly Forecast) with over developed a number of practices and working tions other than those involving the P5 as 30 split more or less equally between the P3, methods reflecting the increased cooperation potentially undermining their authority. A Russia leading on a couple of issues and the to tackle the growing workload. particularly sensitive aspect was the fact that rest, mainly thematic issues, led by elected Drafting resolutions and chairing the several Groups of Friends included non- members. subsequent negotiations has been one of the Council members and thus they had been Although this system may seem logical key chores (the number of resolutions went part of the early stage of drafting while some in terms of efficiency, a side-effect of the from 20 in 1988 to 93 in 1993; more recent- Council members were excluded from the penholder system has been a deepening gap ly, during the five years from 2008 through decision-making process until much later. between the permanent and elected mem- 2012, the average annual number of resolu- That is because Groups of Friends tended bers. The P3 usually agree upon a given draft tions has been 58). In the early to mid-1990s, to keep the drafting process away from the among themselves and then negotiate it with the drafting of resolutions would often be full Council until shortly before the vote. A China and Russia. The agreed text is then undertaken by whichever member took the February 1999 Note by the President said: circulated to the elected members, usually initiative to produce the text. Specific, recur- “It is important that all members of the Secu- quite close to the adoption date. The elected ring topics did not “belong” to a particular rity Council be allowed to participate fully members are often discouraged from making Council member. Sometimes, members with in the preparation of the resolutions of the amendments because this might disturb the an interest in a given situation would join Council and statements by the President of sometimes painstakingly achieved consensus forces or, on some occasions, would compete the Council. Contributions by members of among the P5. to produce a draft first in order to then chair groups of friends and other similar arrange- The penholder is seen by all members, the negotiations. Both permanent and elect- ments… are welcome…While the need is rec- permanent and elected, as the leader on an ed members routinely undertook the drafting. ognized for the Council, in many instances, issue as it takes the initiative on all matters With the increased number of crisis situations to adopt its decisions expeditiously, sufficient related to that situation (even in the cases on the Council agenda, a more structured time should be allowed for consultations of where there is a subsidiary body on that division of labour seemed necessary, and a all members of the Council and for their own country chaired by an elected member). This system of Groups of Friends emerged within consideration of the drafts, prior to action by in turn creates a situation of default where the Council. Starting around 1990, Groups the Council on specific items” (S/1999/165). the other members defer to the penholder. of Friends had initially been used by the Some Groups of Friends still exist If a crisis arises and the penholder is either Secretary-General, who would enlist a set (including on Bosnia, Haiti, Kosovo and unwilling or unable (for example, because it of interested states, often for a range of rea- Western Sahara), but in mid-2000 the Coun- is already managing one or two other crises) sons, in a particular conflict to assist his good cil began organising its work on particular to take the initiative, the Council may seem offices efforts. At the Council, members with situations around a lead country. Initially, paralysed or act with what is perceived as stakes in an issue, or a particular commit- those arrangements were fairly temporary considerable delay. ment to, would come together to draft resolu- and changeable and lead nations were both At the moment, attempts to modify this tions on that issue with both elected and per- elected and permanent members (for exam- system have been unsuccessful. In 2012 manent members playing a leadership role ple Belgium led on Ethiopia/Eritrea in 2007 Portugal, then chair of the subsidiary body (for example, Canada on Haiti or Norway on and 2008; Panama and Costa Rica co-led on dealing with Council working methods, cir- the Horn of Africa). These groups further- Haiti in 2008 and Costa Rica led on Haiti culated a draft presidential note outlining more often included non-Council members in 2009). a system under which all members would that had particular expertise, specific com- Starting around 2008, however, a new sys- have an opportunity to be penholders or co- mitments or stakes in the situations (such as tem seems to have emerged. The P3 (France, penholders. After nearly six months of nego- Spain on Western Sahara, Germany on Geor- the UK and the US, the more legislatively tiations, no consensus was reached. The pro- gia and Iran or Australia and New Zealand active of the P5) have divided most current posal was abandoned.

2 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast September 2013 Status Update since our August Forecast

Cooperation with Regional and International Court of Justice of 10 October debate on the protection of civilians in armed Subregional Organisations 2002, determining the land and maritime conflict (S/PV.7019). The meeting was held On 6 August, the Council held a high-level boundary between Cameroon and Nigeria. on the tenth anniversary of the bombing of open debate on cooperation between the UN the Baghdad headquarters of UNAMI that and regional and subregional organisations in Egypt claimed the lives of 22 people and wound- maintaining international peace and security On 15 August, Council members met in ed more than 100. The Secretary-General, (S/PV.7015 and Resumption 1). President an emergency meeting on the situation in Director for International Law and Coop- Cristina Fernández de Kirchner of Argentina Egypt, a day after alarming violence in the eration at the International Committee of the presided. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon country. On 14 August, police and military Red Cross Philip Spoerri, UN High Com- also briefed, along with high-level officials forces violently dispersed two sit-ins in sup- missioner for Human Rights Navi Pillay and representing the AU (Ambassador Teke- port of deposed President Mohammed Morsi. Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian da Alemu of Ethiopia); the Community of Egypt’s Ministry of Health indicated that at Affairs and Emergency Relief Coordinator Latin American and Caribbean States (Bru- least 600 people were killed in the two dis- Valerie Amos briefed the Council. Thirty- no Rodríguez Parrilla, Minister of Foreign persals and in other clashes that took place seven states and the EU took the floor, in Affairs of Cuba); the League of Arab States throughout the country. Widespread violence addition to Council members. (Mr. Ahmed Fathalla, Permanent Observer followed the crackdown, and suspected Mus- of the League of Arab States to the UN); and lim Brotherhood loyalists attacked dozens of Middle East the Union of South American Nations (Eda churches and Christian homes and institu- On 20 August, the Council held a briefing and Rivas Franchini, Minister of Foreign Affairs of tions in unprecedented sectarian attacks. The consultations on the situation in the Middle Peru). Representatives of other regional and following day Council members were briefed East (S/PV.7020). Assistant Secretary-Gen- subregional organisations and non-Council on the situation in consultations by Deputy eral for Political Affairs Oscar Fernández- member states also participated in the debate. Secretary-General Jan Eliasson. Although Taranco provided the briefing, focusing his The Council adopted a presidential statement Council members were unable to agree on remarks on recent developments in the peace (S/PRST/2013/12) stressing “the utility of a press statement, they authorised Council process between Israel and Palestine and the continuing to develop effective partnerships President Ambassador Marìa Cristina Per- situations in Syria and Lebanon. between the UN and regional and subre- ceval (Argentina) to make remarks to the press gional organizations in order to enable early following the consultations. In these agreed Sudan/Darfur responses to disputes and emerging crises.” remarks Perceval said that “the view of Coun- On 21 August, Ambassador María Cristina cil members is that it is important to end vio- Perceval (Argentina), in her capacity as chair of DPRK lence in Egypt and that the parties exercise the 1591Sudan Sanctions Committee, provid- On 7 August, the chair of the 1718 Demo- maximum restraint”. Perceval said Council ed Council members with the quarterly brief- cratic People’s Republic of Korea Sanctions members agreed there was a need to “stop vio- ing on the committee’s work in consultations. Committee, Ambassador Sylvie Lucas (Lux- lence and to advance national reconciliation.” embourg), briefed Council members in con- Syria sultations on the work of the Committee. Mali Council members met in consultations on 21 On 16 August, Council members adopted a August to receive a briefing from Deputy Sec- Piracy in the Gulf of Guinea press statement taking note of the provisional retary-General Jan Eliasson on attacks earlier On 14 August, the Council issued a presiden- results of the presidential runoff elections in that day on rebel-held areas east of Damascus tial statement (S/PRST/2013/13) regarding Mali, which declared Ibrahim Boubacar Keï- that reportedly involved the use of chemical piracy in the Gulf of Guinea (S/PV.7016). ta the elected President of Mali (SC/11096). weapons and killed hundreds of Syrian civil- The principal purpose of the statement was Council members commended the Malian ians, including women and children. Speak- to welcome the summit on maritime safety people for the peaceful participation in the ing at the stakeout after the meeting, Ambas- and security held in Yaoundé, Cameroon on electoral process as well as the transitional sador María Cristina Perceval (Argentina), 24-25 June, which was attended by twenty- authorities for the successful preparation, Council President for August, said that “all five countries of West and Central Africa and organisation and management of the elec- Council members agree that any use of chem- three subregional organisations. tions. Council members also called for the ical weapons by any side, under any circum- swift holding of free, fair, transparent, and stances, is a violation of international law.” ICJ inclusive legislative elections and reiterated She added that “the members of the Security On 15 August, Council members welcomed the call for inclusive and credible peace talks Council also welcomed the determination of the conclusion of the special transitional open to all communities of the north of Mali the Secretary-General to ensure a thorough, regime established by the Greentree Agree- in the timeframe set out by the Ouagadougou impartial and prompt investigation.” ment concerning the Bakassi Peninsula Agreement of 18 June 2013. (SC/11094). Sovereignty over the peninsu- DRC la was transferred from Nigeria to Camer- Protection of Civilians On 22 August, Council members received oon in accordance with the judgment of the On 19 August, the Council held an open a briefing in the morning and then in the

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast September 2013 securitycouncilreport.org 3 Status Update since our August Forecast (con’t)

afternoon from Assistant Secretary-General Peacekeeping Edmond Mulet. The Council police and military personnel to MINUS- for Peacekeeping Edmond Mulet on ongo- issued a press statement on 23 August con- TAH on 26 August. ing clashes between the M23 and the Con- demning terrorist attacks earlier in the day in golese army. Both briefings were given under Tripoli, which killed more than 42 people and Kosovo “any other business”. France had circulated injured over 400 (SC/11101). At press time, As of press time, the Council is scheduled to a press statement later that day condemn- the Council was scheduled to adopt a resolu- hold a quarterly debate on 29 August regard- ing the M23 for attacks against civilians and tion on 29 August renewing the mandate of ing UNMIK and the Secretary-General’s lat- MONUSCO. At press time, Council mem- UNIFIL for an additional year. est report (S/2013/444). bers have yet to agree on the press statement. Haiti Wrap-up Session Lebanon At press time, the Council was expecting to The Council at press time was scheduled to On 15 August, Council members issued a hold a debate on 28 August to consider the hold a “wrap-up session” for August under press statement condemning the attack that Secretary-General’s semi-annual report on the agenda item “Implementation of Note occurred in South Beirut, which killed at MINUSTAH (S/2013/493). A briefing by S/2010/507 (Wrap-up Session)”. Non-Coun- least 10 people and wounded more than 100 Sandra Honoré, the new Special Represen- cil members were invited to attend the pri- (SC/11095). Council members held consul- tative of the Secretary-General and head of vate meeting. tations on UNIFIL on 22 August, receiving a mission, was expected. The Council held a briefing from Assistant Secretary-General for private meeting with the countries providing

Small Arms

Expected Council Action Small Arms of 27 August 1997 (A/52/298). and imports of small arms. Analysis of illegal A high-level meeting on small arms is expect- There are an estimated 875 million small small-arms activities is even more difficult, ed to be held at the initiative of Australia arms and light weapons in circulation world- with substantial numbers of legally acquired as President of the Council in September. wide, produced by more than 1,000 compa- small arms entering illicit markets through Although Australia is having federal elections nies in nearly 100 countries. The Graduate corruption, seizure and loss. Among the top on 7 September, the elected prime minister Institute of International Studies in Geneva exporters of small arms are the US, Italy, is expected to preside over the meeting. The estimates they are responsible for more than Brazil, Germany and Russia. Secretary-General may brief the Council. a half-million deaths each year, including The principal locus of UN work on small A resolution is a possible outcome. 300,000 in armed conflict. Of the 49 major arms has been the General Assembly. Most conflicts in the 1990s, small arms were the recently, on 2 April, the General Assembly Background key weapons in 47 of them. Small-arms adopted the Arms Trade Treaty (ATT) by The term “small arms and light weapons” flows can also negatively affect disarmament, an overwhelming majority of 154 to three covers arms intended for both civilian and demobilisation and reintegration (DDR) (with 23 abstentions). The treaty obligates military use. Small arms include revolvers processes under Council mandates. In his arms-exporting countries to report arms and self-loading pistols, rifles and carbines, 2005 report In Larger Freedom, the Secretary- sales and transfers. States parties also agree sub-machine guns, assault rifles and light General noted that “the accumulation and not to authorise any transfer of conventional machine guns. Light weapons include heavy proliferation of small arms and light weapons weapons—or their ammunition/munitions, machine guns, hand-held under-barrel and continues to be a serious threat to peace, sta- parts or components—if the transfer would mounted grenade launchers, portable anti- bility and sustainable development”. violate their Chapter VII obligations or those aircraft guns, portable anti-tank guns, recoil- Small arms also represent a sizeable under international agreements or if they less rifles, portable launchers of anti-tank industry: all countries—and numerous non- have knowledge that arms would be used in missile and rocket systems, portable launch- state armed groups—procure small arms. the commission of gross human rights abuses ers of anti-aircraft missile systems and mor- The Small Arms Survey estimates that their and humanitarian law violations. tars with calibres less than 100 millimetres. annual authorised trade exceeds $8.5 billion. The category also includes ammunition and Accurate assessments are difficult, complicat- Developments in the Council explosives. This list is available in the report ed by the reluctance of many states to report The direct impact of small arms on con- of the Panel of Governmental Experts on publicly on their legal production, exports flicts has made them a topic of considerable

UN DOCUMENTS ON SMALL ARMS Security Council Presidential Statements S/PRST/2010/6 (19 March 2010) was on small arms and light weapons and the Central African region. S/PRST/2007/24 (29 June 2007) requested, inter alia, biennial small-arms reports from the Secretary-General starting in 2008. Reports of the Secretary-General S/2013/503 (22 August 2013) was on small arms. S/2011/255 (5 April 2011) was a report on small arms originally due in 2010. A/59/2005 (21 March 2005) was the Secretary-General’s report In Larger Freedom: towards development, security and human rights for all. Security Council Meeting Records S/PV.6288 and Resumption 1 (19 March 2010) was the debate on small arms and light weapons and the Central African region. S/PV.5881 (30 April 2008) was the last open debate on small arms. General Assembly Document A/52/298 (27 August 1997) was the report of the Panel of Governmental Experts on Small Arms.

4 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast September 2013 Small Arms (con’t) attention on the part of the Council. For to control its exiting arms when planning enhance the Council’s effectiveness on issues several years, the Council highlighted the peacekeeping and peacebuilding operations related to small arms. importance of this issue by regularly address- and that those missions are mandated to ing small arms as one of the thematic issues, assist their host states to manage their arms Options placed on its agenda in 1999. The Council stockpiles effectively. It recommends that the The Council may adopt a resolution or presi- held nine debates and adopted five presiden- Council consider utilising new technologies dential statement that addresses all or some tial statements between 1999 and 2006. that can reduce the risk of diversion of arms of the following points relating to small arms: In 2006 an Argentinian initiative for to illicit activities in those states. The Sec- • coordination of Council efforts (between a Council resolution on small arms was retary-General further recommends that in peacekeeping missions in a single region blocked by the US—which felt that it was an light of the impact of small arms on the pro- and between peacekeeping missions and issue best dealt with in the General Assem- tection of civilians and violence against wom- panels of experts); bly—and consequently no Secretary-Gen- en and children, UN officials dealing with • UN coordination with regional eral’s report was requested for 2007. On these issues should consult regularly with UN organisations; 29 June 2007, after months of negotiations, entities dealing with small arms. • improvements in arms embargoes; the Council issued a presidential statement As the Council has not discussed the • support for security sector reform and requesting the Secretary-General to produce agenda item “small arms” in a formal meet- DDR efforts; biennial reports on small arms, the first of ing since 30 April 2008, the item was deleted • Council counterterrorism efforts; which was discussed in an open debate on 30 from the list of agenda items of which the • the relevance of small arms to protection April 2008 (S/PV.5881). Council is seized on 30 April 2012. (Accord- of civilians issues; or Despite the absence of a report from the ing to Council practice, matters that have • more regular reporting by the Secretary-General in 2010, Gabon initiated a not been considered by the Council in the Secretary-General. Council debate, under the agenda item “Cen- preceding three years are deleted from the list tral African region: impact of illicit arms traf- unless a request to retain a matter is received Council Dynamics ficking” on 19 March 2010. In a presidential from a member state, in which case the mat- As the 2006 Argentinian initiative for a res- statement adopted at the conclusion of the ter is provisionally retained but only for one olution and the prolonged negotiations on debate, the Council reiterated that small arms year. Thereafter, the matter is automatically the 2007 presidential statement indicate, pose a threat to peace and fuel armed conflict, deleted if it has not been considered by the some Council members are reluctant to see and it called on states to enforce existing arms Council during the intervening period.) enhanced Council involvement in the small embargoes. The Council also requested that Australia is seeking to revive Council arms debate. As with some other thematic the Secretary-General take the content of the focus on the issue, as it has significant impact issues, some Council members are also con- presidential statement into account in his next on the country-specific and thematic issues cerned that the Council may be encroaching report. (Gabon also attempted to initiate a on the agenda of the Council, such as pro- on the work of the General Assembly on the debate on drug trafficking and small arms— tection of civilians. It also has an impact on arms trade. In addition, arms-manufactur- under the agenda item “threats to internation- the tools available to the Council, such as ing states have been historically reluctant for al peace and security”—during its June 2011 arms embargoes, DDR in peacebuilding and the Council to be assertive on small arms presidency, but eventually the 24 June debate peacekeeping missions and counterterrorism. as a thematic issue and have been especial- focused solely on drug trafficking.) Australia, wishing to build upon the ly concerned about language and action on The Secretary-General’s report due in momentum following the adoption of the the dangers caused by legal small arms trade. 2010 was delayed until 2011 and issued on 5 ATT in the General Assembly, sees the meet- Some members may also be resistant to re- April (S/2011/255). On 25 April the Council ing as an opportunity to reflect on the role inserting small arms to the Council agenda. received a briefing on the report in consulta- of the Council on small arms. In its view, a In order to alleviate some of these con- tions. The report encouraged states to strength- holistic discussion of small arms is timely, as cerns, Australia (President of the Final UN en their tracing capacity and to enhance inter- small arms have not been discussed as such conference on the ATT that took place from national cooperation regarding tracing, as well in the Council since 2008. 18-28 March 2013) will try to focus its efforts as asked states to voluntarily provide the UN on the illicit transfer, accumulation and use with information on the ammunition markings Key Issues of small arms and light weapons. In addi- used by manufacturers in their jurisdiction. A key issue for the Council is to use this tion, Council members supportive of a reso- The Council received the Secretary-Gen- high-level meeting as an opportunity to lution will be mindful not to use language eral’s latest biennial report on 22 August. renew its focus on small arms as a themat- that appears to encroach on the mandate of The report takes stock of efforts to address ic issue with considerable impact on many the General Assembly and will want to focus the issue and contains 15 recommendations. aspects of its work. on the aspects of small arms that specifically Among them, it recommends that the Coun- Another issue is to adopt an outcome doc- touch upon international peace and security. cil take into account the capacity of a state ument that introduces practical measures to

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast September 2013 securitycouncilreport.org 5 Central African Republic

Expected Council Action six months, the document contains strate- Ivan Šimonović also briefed (S/PV.7017). In September, the Security Council may gic planning that surpasses that timeframe. Gaye told the Council that the security adopt a resolution amending the mandate It also assumes that the Council will endorse situation in Bangui has improved slightly, of the UN Integrated Peacebuilding Office AFISM-CAR and authorise a support pack- but looting, plundering, killing, torture and in the Central African Republic (BINUCA). age for the mission. kidnappings continued, compounded by a BINUCA’s mandate expires on 31 Janu- The transition process from MICOPAX to lack of law and order. He urged the Coun- ary 2014. AFISM-CAR and preparations for the opera- cil to provide financial, logistical and techni- tions of the AU force commenced on 1 August cal support to AFISM-CAR, whose planned Key Recent Developments and were expected to take several weeks. In a deployment was pending an AU assessment Despite signing the Libreville Agreements on press release that day, the Chairperson of the mission in Bangui. 11 January, the Séléka rebels seized the capi- AU Commission, Nkosazana Dlamini Zuma, Amos, who recently visited the CAR, stat- tal Bangui on 24 March, forcing President looked forward to an increased and multifac- ed that the humanitarian situation had deteri- François Bozizé to flee the Central African eted UN involvement in the establishment and orated dramatically, characterised by violence, Republic (CAR) and BINUCA to evacuate strengthening of AFISM-CAR. acute needs and grave protection issues. She most of its staff. In the following months, The latest BINUCA report, which had warned that the crisis could further destabi- the Economic Community of Central Afri- been delayed more than a month to include lise a region already facing significant chal- can States (ECCAS) led a political initiative recent developments, was circulated on 5 lenges. She called on the Council to act with to create a Transitional National Council August (S/2013/470). It highlights the chal- urgency on the AU’s request for support. (TNC) charged with drafting a new consti- lenges in the implementation of the transi- Šimonović, who returned from the CAR in tution and preparing for elections within 18 tional arrangements, including the weak early August, added that both Séléka and for- months. (Self-appointed interim President representation of women in the TNC and mer government forces had committed seri- Michel Djotodia accepted the ECCAS frame- lack of geographical inclusiveness, the dis- ous international human rights and humani- work and was then elected interim president agreements over key issues of the transition tarian law violations, including extrajudicial by the TNC and sworn in on 18 August.) (i.e. timing and the ineligibility of key actors killings, summary executions, torture, sexual The International Contact Group on the in the transition to run in future elections), violence and grave violations against children. CAR (ICG-CAR) held its second meeting divisions within the Séléka and the mistrust He said many of those breaches were ongoing. on 8 July in Addis Ababa, with representa- between the current prime minister, Nicolas His recommendations for the Council and tives of 23 countries and seven internation- Tiangaye, and President Djotodia. the international community to address the al organisations participating. The meeting The report also calls attention to the dete- situation included the immediate establish- discussed the ECCAS efforts and the AU riorating security situation despite a partial ment of a credible national security force. He Commission’s proposed establishment of an return to duty by members of the police and also recommended the deployment of a large African-led International Support Mission in the armed forces. It notes an increase in crimi- international force with a strong protection the CAR (AFISM-CAR). nal activities due to the proliferation of small mandate and the reinforcement of the human In a 19 July communiqué (PSC/PR/ arms as well as an upsurge in activity report- rights component of BINUCA. COMM.2[CCCLXXXV]), the AU’s Peace edly linked to the Lord’s Resistance Army. It Following the briefing, the Council issued and Security Council authorised the deploy- recommends that the Council consider sanc- a press statement expressing grave concern ment of AFISM-CAR for an initial period of tions or the establishment of a panel of experts about the security situation in the CAR, vio- six months, to take over from ECCAS’s Mis- to ensure that there is no impunity for perpe- lations of international humanitarian law and sion for the Consolidation of Peace in the trators of gross violations of human rights. widespread human rights violations, and it CAR (MICOPAX). AFISM-CAR will have an The report also encourages the Council emphasised that those responsible must be overall strength of 3,652 personnel (including to “lend its full support to the mission”, but held accountable (SC/11093). The Council 2,475 military personnel and 1,025 police) and does not go into detail about the specifics of stated that it looked forward to further dis- will be mandated to protect civilians, restore this support. cussions with the AU and also expressed its public order, stabilise the security situation, On 14 August, the Council was briefed willingness to consider all potential options reform the defence and security sector and on the Secretary-General’s last report to stabilise CAR. facilitate the provision of humanitarian aid. (S/2013/470) by Lieutenant General Babacar The prosecutor of the International Crim- The Council received AFISM-CAR’s Gaye, who was recently appointed as the Sec- inal Court, Fatou Bensouda, voiced her deep concept of operations in a letter from the retary-General’s Special Representative and concern on 7 August about the worsening AU on 9 August (S/2013/476). The force is head of BINUCA. Under-Secretary-General security situation in the CAR and reports of to have a military, police and civilian com- for Humanitarian Affairs Valerie Amos and serious crimes being committed there. She ponent. While its initial authorisation is for Assistant Secretary-General for Human Rights said that her office will prosecute those most

UN DOCUMENTS ON THE CAR Security Council Resolution S/RES/2088 (24 January 2013) extended the mandate of BINUCA until 31 January 2014. Security Council Press Statement SC/11093 (14 August 2013) expressed the Council’s willingness to consider supporting AFISM-CAR. Secretary-General’s Report S/2013/470 (5 August 2013) was the latest report on BINUCA. Security Council Meeting Record S/PV.7017 (14 August 2013) was a briefing on the August 2013 BINUCA report. Security Council Letter S/2013/476 (9 August 2013) contained AFISM-CAR’s concept of operations. OTHER RELEVANT FACTS Special Representative and Head of BINUCA Babacar Gaye (Senegal) Size and Composition as of 31 May 2013 Authorised: 64 international civilians, 80 local civilians, two military advisers, two police and two UN volunteers. Duration: 1 January 2010 to present.

6 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast September 2013 Central African Republic (con’t) responsible for the commission of serious of UN support will be an immediate issue. some support for the regional and subre- crimes, if necessary. A related issue is finding a productive role gional efforts. There is general agreement for BINUCA in light of the ongoing transition- among Council members that Council action Human Rights-Related Developments al process and the deployment of AFISM-CAR. is needed—including a possible overhaul of From 20 June to 11 July, the Office of the High BINUCA’s mandate—in light of recent polit- Commissioner for Human Rights deployed a Options ical developments. fact-finding mission to the CAR to gather- infor mation on human rights violations committed in Options for the Council on BINUCA include At press time, Council members were the country since December 2012. The findings amending its mandate by: waiting to receive more information from the will be included in the report of the High Com- • expanding its political component to play AU on the deployment of AFISM-CAR and missioner to be considered during the September a key role in the transitional process; its needs, following the AU assessment mis- session of the Human Rights Council (HRC) (A/ • strengthening its human rights sion. At the same time, some Council mem- HRC/24/59). Šimonović travelled to the country from 28 July to 2 August to discuss the pre- component; bers are of the view that BINUCA should liminary findings of the fact-finding mission with • expanding and enforcing its role in secu- also suggest specific recommendations as to government representatives and civil society. rity sector reform, disarmament demo- how to amend its mandate effectively and Speaking at a press conference in Bangui on 1 bilisation and reintegration processes and how it could assist AFISM-CAR, so the August, Šimonović stressed that accountability is human rights monitoring; Council could make an informed decision. key not only for victims but also to prevent future violations. He said that further discussions were • asking the Secretary-General to deploy a Negotiations over BINUCA’s mandate needed to address the different proposals made panel of experts to investigate and report and a support package may prove difficult, by stakeholders, including the establishment of on human rights violations; and as recent experience has shown. During the an international commission of inquiry, a stand- • providing logistical and technical support recent consultations, at least one permanent ing invitation to HRC special procedures (inde- and training to AFISM-CAR. member expressed reluctance to provide pendent human rights experts with mandates to report and advise on human rights from a the- A further option could be addressing logistical support to AFISM-CAR due to matic or country-specific perspective), or creating reports of grave human rights violations via financial constraints. a mandate for a special rapporteur on the CAR. sanctions. Signalling the Council’s willing- Some Council members are considering ness to consider re-hatting the AU mission as establishing a panel of experts that could pro- Key Issues a UN mission in due time would be another vide more information on human rights vio- The key issue for the Council is how to play further option. lations in CAR. As for sanctions, it is unclear a more effective and assertive role in address- if there is appetite at this point for this mea- ing concerns about the security, human rights Council Dynamics sure, on the grounds that it might negatively and humanitarian situations. In particular, The Council has remained fairly passive in affect the political process. formulating a new approach to the CAR in recent months regarding the CAR, focusing France is the penholder on CAR. light of the AU’s initiative and its expectation on other country situations while expressing

Liberia

Expected Council Action Key Recent Developments On 29 June, ministers of Côte d’Ivoire, In September, the Council is expected to renew Pursuant to resolution 2066, by 30 June Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone met with the mandate of the UN Mission in Liberia UNMIL completed the first of three draw- representatives from the UN, the Economic (UNMIL) before it expires on 30 September. down phases as 2,026 military personnel Community of West African States (ECOW- Prior to that, it will receive a briefing on and departed the mission, handing over some AS) and the Secretariat of the Mano River consider in consultations the Secretary-Gen- facilities and security responsibilities to Union (MRU) in Dakar, Senegal, to discuss eral’s latest report on UNMIL (S/2013/479). national authorities. a joint security strategy for the MRU. In UNMIL head, Karin Landgren, and Ambas- On 22 June, Liberia deployed 45 troops resolution 2066, among others, the Coun- sador Staffan Tillander (Sweden), chair of the to join the UN Multidimensional Integrated cil encouraged ECOWAS and the MRU Liberia configuration of the Peacebuilding Stabilization Mission in Mali (MINUSMA), to develop, with the support of the UN Commission (PBC), are expected to brief. marking its first contribution to UN peace- Office for West Africa, a subregional strat- keeping since 1961. egy to address the threat of the cross-border

UN DOCUMENTS ON LIBERIA Security Council Resolutions S/RES/2079 (12 December 2012) extended both the sanctions regime and the mandate of the Panel of Experts until 12 December 2013. S/RES/2066 (17 September 2012) extended the UNMIL mandate until 30 September 2013. Secretary-General’s Report S/2013/479 (12 August 2013) was the latest report of the Secretary-General on UNMIL. Security Council Meeting Record S/PV.6941 (25 March 2013) was a briefing on the situation in Liberia. Sanctions Committee Document S/2013/316 (23 May 2013) was the midterm report of the Panel of Experts on Liberia. OTHER RELEVANT FACTS Special Representative of the Secretary-General and Head of UNMIL Karin Landgren (Sweden) Size, Composition and Budget as of 30 June 2013 Authorised: 5,790 troops; 120 military observers; 1,458 police; 219 UN volunteers; 415 international civilians; 916 local civilians. Budget: $476.3 million (1 July 2013-30 June 2014) UNMIL Force Commander: Major General Leonard Muriuki Ngondi (Kenya) Chairman of the Sanctions Committee: Ambassador Masood Khan (Pakistan)

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast September 2013 securitycouncilreport.org 7 Liberia (con’t) movements of armed groups and weapons legislature is corrupt, and 94 percent believe security concern at the Liberia-Sierra Leone as well as illicit trafficking. The high-level the police are corrupt. On 8 July, four senior border are further issues of concern for the meeting identified the fundamental elements officials were dismissed for allegedly engag- Council. for the strategy and decided to establish an ing in illegal practices. On 10 July, the House MRU-ECOWAS-UN Steering Committee of Representatives voted to concur with the Options to spearhead the development of the strategy. dismissal of the auditor general of the Gener- When renewing the mandate of UNMIL, the In its 23 May report, the Panel of Experts al Auditing Commission and recommended Council could decide to: (PoE) of the 1521 Liberia Sanctions Com- that the auditor general and the director of • continue the pace of the drawdown of mittee reported an emerging security con- the General Services Agency be investigat- UNMIL’s military component envisaged cern in the Gola Forest on the Liberia-Sierra ed for failure to disclose their investments by resolution 2066; Leone border (S/2013/316). The PoE found in private entities. On 5 August, the deputy • or reconsider the pace of the drawdown evidence of extensive gold mining by ex-com- director of the Drug Enforcement Agency in view of the fragility of the borders and batants and reported on a 2 February inci- was dismissed for ethics and policy violations. the challenges the government is facing dent during which militia members armed addressing social unrest and assuming its with assault weapons crossed into Sierra Developments in the PBC new security responsibilities; Leone and attacked forest rangers. From 12-16 May, Tillander, and Brian Williams of • and in either case, include a strong mes- the Peacebuilding Support Office (PBSO) visited The security situation along the bor- sage to the government of Liberia regard- Liberia. The mission focused on justice and secu- der with Côte d’Ivoire has improved but rity, reconciliation, land and natural resources and ing the need for institutional reforms and remained fragile as reports continued to indi- issues linked to the Peacebuilding Fund financing for further progress. cate that planning and organisation of new for peacebuilding. cross-border attacks might be underway. The Council Dynamics governments of Liberia and Côte d’Ivoire Key Issues The renewal of UNMIL in September will continued to strengthen their cooperation to A key issue for the Council while UNMIL is likely create little controversy among Council address border security challenges. drawing down and is transitioning to a small- members as they are generally keen to contin- As of 2 August, there were 58,276 Ivorian er presence is ensuring that there is sufficient ue the implementation of the drawdown plan. refugees in Liberia although some 10,000 national capacity to assume performing secu- This would involve the repatriation of another returned to Côte d’Ivoire in the first seven rity tasks and address other challenges. 1,129 troops to reach a level of 4,797 troops months of 2013 as the closure and consoli- A related issue is the need for Liberia to by July 2014, while increasing the number of dation of refugee camps continued. However, address the high rates of sexual and gender- UNMIL formed police units by two additional some 1,490 new refugees registered in Libe- based violence, land disputes and corruption units to address any security vacuum. Some ria between January and March, and there and to continue their efforts on reconciliation, Council members may want to call for further was an influx of about 1,000 refugees into security sector reform, constitutional reform, progress from the government in building its Nimba county from April to June. accountability and transparency. national security and pursuing its reforms. According to a Transparency International The fragile security situation along the The US is the penholder on Liberia in survey, 96 percent of Liberians feel that the border with Côte d’Ivoire and the emerging the Council.

Sierra Leone

Expected Council Action and head of UNIPSIL. As with past Council should be fully drawn down. In September, the Council will be briefed on practice, Guillermo Rishchynski, chair of the the report of the Secretary-General regard- Sierra Leone configuration of the Peacebuild- Key Recent Developments ing the UN Integrated Peacebuilding Office ing Commission (PBC), will also likely brief. The Council last addressed Sierra Leone on in Sierra Leone (UNIPSIL), most likely by The briefing will be followed by consulta- 26 March when it adopted resolution 2097, Jens Anders Toyberg-Frandzen, the Execu- tions. The mandate of UNIPSIL expires on extending UNIPSIL’s mandate for the last tive Representative of the Secretary-General 31 March 2014, by which date the mission time (S/PV.6942). The resolution further

UN DOCUMENTS ON SIERRA LEONE Security Council Resolution S/RES/2097 (26 March 2013) extended the mandate of UNIPSIL until 31 March 2014. Secretary-General’s Report S/2013/118 (27 February 2013) was the Secretary-General’s report on UNIPSIL. Security Council Meeting Records S/PV.6942 (26 March 2013) was the adoption of resolution 2097 extending the mandate of UNIPSIL until 31 March 2014. S/PV.6933 (13 March 2013) concerned the report of the Secretary-General on UNIPSIL. Sanctions Committee Document S/2013/316 (23 May 2013) was a letter transmitting the midterm report of the Panel of Experts on Liberia. OTHER RELEVANT FACTS Size and Composition Authorised: 31 international civilians, 24 local civilians, six police, seven UN volunteers (as of 31 May 2013) Chair of the Sierra Leone Configuration of the PBC Ambassador Guillermo Rishchynski (Canada) Executive Representative of the Secretary-General and Head of UNIPSIL Jens Anders Toyberg-Frandzen (Denmark) President of the Special Court for Sierra Leone Justice George Gelagaking (Sierra Leone) USEFUL ADDITIONAL RESOURCES Koroma helps warlord escape trial, Africa Confidential, 8 August 2013. Who is Benefitting?: The social and economic impact of three large-scale land investments in Sierra Leone, Action for Large-Scale Land Acquisition Transparency in Sierra Leone, July 2013.

8 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast September 2013 Sierra Leone (con’t) asked the Executive Representative to submit August for non-appearance, it then became the UN country team during the transition. a Transition Plan by no later than 30 May and known that the government had already UNIPSIL activity toward accomplishing requested the Secretary-General to include an secretly “deported” Bah to Senegal on 27 the “residual” tasks outlined in the Secretary- update on its implementation in his next report. July, in violation of the travel ban. Senegal General’s 27 February report—conflict pre- Previously, on 13 March, Toyberg-Frandzen has denied being contacted by Sierra Leone, vention, mediation and supporting democrat- briefed the Council regarding the Secretary- and Bah’s current whereabouts are unknown. ic institutions—are another set of significant General’s 27 February report on UNIPSIL On 30 July, President Ernest Bai Koroma issues. (S/2013/118); Rishchynski and Samura M.W. officially launched the Constitutional Review The status of the Special Court for Sierra Kamara, Sierra Leone’s Minister for For- Committee. The 80-member committee— Leone (SCSL), whose mandate expires on 30 eign Affairs and International Cooperation, which will be chaired by Justice Edmond September, and measures taken toward the addressed the Council as well (S/PV.6933). Cowan, the current ombudsman and a for- transition to a Residual Special Court will While recognising that the mandate of UNIP- mer speaker of Parliament—has two years to also likely be of interest to the Council. SIL had nearly been fulfilled, the report iden- propose a draft constitution, which will then tified “residual tasks” in the areas of conflict be subject to a national referendum. Review Options prevention, mediation and democratisation. of the existing 1991 constitution, was a pro- Council members may wish to seek clarifica- There have been security incidents on the vision of the Lomé Peace Agreement of 7 tion from the government of Sierra Leone Sierra Leone–Liberia border, as documented July 1999 as well as a recommendation of regarding the deportation to Senegal of Ibra- in the 23 May report of the Panel of Experts the final report of the Sierra Leone Truth him Bah, who remains subject to a UN travel (PoE) of the 1521 Liberia Sanctions Commit- and Reconciliation Commission released ban under the Liberia sanctions regime. tee (S/2013/316). The PoE found evidence of in October 2004. Speaking at the ceremony, The Council may also request further widespread gold mining by Liberian ex-com- Toyberg-Frandzen welcomed the political details regarding the drawdown of UNIPSIL, batants in the Gola Forest, which covers about commitment to an inclusive and transparent coordination between the UN country team 2,000 square kilometres of territory. Accord- constitutional review process. and UNIPSIL, plans for the country specific ing to Sierra Leone, these ex-combatants were In July, Action for Large-Scale Land configuration in the PBC and the transition engaged in a range of illegal activities, such Acquisition Transparency, a coalition of to the Residual Special Court. as hunting game, drug-trafficking and illicit more than a dozen domestic NGOs, released mining. On 2 February, about 50 Liberian a report entitled Who is Benefitting?, which Council and Wider Dynamics militia members crossed the border to attack assessed the social and economic impacts of With the unanimous adoption of resolution forest rangers from Sierra Leone, who man- three major land investments in Sierra Leone. 2097, Council members signalled their unity aged to flee unharmed. Sierra Leone identified The report analysed the leases for sugar cane regarding the drawdown of UNIPSIL and the attackers as former members of the Move- and palm oil production on the three tracts the transformation of UN peacebuilding ment for Democracy in Liberia and agreed totalling 92,320 hectares (227,337 acres). activities in Sierra Leone. with Liberia on 14 March to undertake joint The report claimed that the agricultural The secret deportation of Bah to Senegal border-security patrols. developments have had negative social and could damage relations between the UN and The PoE report also noted the presence economic consequences for local populations; Sierra Leone. It also potentially calls into in Freetown, Sierra Leone, of Ibrahim Bah, benefit from corporate tax breaks depriving question why the SCSL, whose case against a close ally of former President Charles Tay- the government of as much as $18.8 mil- Taylor had revealed substantial evidence lor of Liberia who had brokered arms trans- lion per year in revenue; and were approved of Bah’s complicity in war crimes, had not fers and diamond deals with the Revolution- without adequate environmental, social and issued an indictment once his whereabouts ary United Front rebel group during Sierra health impact assessments. It suggested that in Freetown were publicly known. The US, Leone’s civil war. Bah has been subject to a rapid top-down agrarian reform could pose which through its ambassador to Sierra travel ban since 2004 under the Liberia sanc- risks for food security, rural livelihoods, social Leone had communicated its interest in legal tions regime. Bah failed to appear in court cohesion and peace in Sierra Leone. action against Bah, may choose to pursue the for a 19 July trial initiated by a domestic issue (as may other Council members). human rights organisation on behalf of Tam- Key Issues The UK is the penholder on Sierra Leone, ba Emmanuel, who claims he was kidnapped The principal focus for the Council is prog- and Canada chairs the PBC Sierra Leone and assaulted by Bah in 2000. When a court ress in the drawdown of UNIPSIL, including configuration. in Freetown issued an arrest warrant on 5 how tasks are being shifted to the PBC and

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast September 2013 securitycouncilreport.org 9 Guinea-Bissau

Expected Council Action how the UN can assist with the elections. On Guinea-Bissau, the country is facing a situ- In September, Council members expect to his private blog, Ramos-Horta disclosed that ation of high food insecurity. This is largely hold consultations to receive a briefing from the government had proposed a $40 million due to a sharp decline in the price of cashews, José Ramos-Horta, the Secretary-General’s election budget, but he thought that $15 mil- an industry that accounts for 90 percent of Special Representative and the head of the lion was more realistic. On 8 August, former the export revenue and provides income UN Integrated Peacebuilding Office in Guin- Prime Minister Carlos Gomes Júnior, one of for 80 percent of the population. The terms ea-Bissau (UNIOGBIS), and discuss the most the two finalists for the second round presi- of trade between cashews and rice have recent report of the Secretary-General on the dential election that was aborted by the 12 declined from a one-to-one ratio to a three- restoration of constitutional order in Guin- April 2012 military coup, announced that he to-one ratio (i.e., farmers have to sell 3 kilo- ea-Bissau, issued on 21 August (S/2013/499). would return from exile in Portugal in order grams of cashews in order to buy 1 kilogram The Council is likely to take no action. to contest the presidential election. of rice). Ussama Osman, the WFP country On 17-18 July, ECOWAS held a summit director, stated that international sanctions Key Recent Developments meeting on Guinea-Bissau and other region- and the suspension of aid to Guinea-Bissau The Council last considered Guinea-Bissau al issues. The final communiqué extended the were having a negative humanitarian impact. on 22 May, when it unanimously adopted mandate of the ECOWAS Mission in Guin- “There is need for immediate financial sup- resolution 2103 extending the mandate of ea-Bissau (ECOMIB) until 16 May 2014 port from the donors”, he said. “They have to UNIOGBIS until 31 May 2014 (S/PV.6968). and reiterated the call for the lifting of sanc- realize that political pressure, sanctions and Resolution 2103 established a revised ten- tions on Guinea-Bissau and the re-engaging boycott are punishing the most vulnerable.” point mandate for UNIOGBIS, including of bilateral donors. President Goodluck Jona- democratisation, capacity-building, rule than of Nigeria echoed these themes when he Human Rights-Related Developments of law and human rights, drug trafficking addressed the summit stating that “the chal- Ivan Šimonović, UN Assistant Secretary-General for Human Rights, visited Guinea-Bissau from 7 and organised crime, peacebuilding and lenges facing Guinea-Bissau are complex in to 11 July. He met with the transitional authorities the coordination of international assistance. nature” and urging the EU and the AU “to and civil society representatives, while also vis- Previously, on 9 May, Ramos-Horta briefed recognise the transitional government and lift iting a prison in Mansoa and a detention centre the Council regarding the 6 May report the sanctions on Guinea-Bissau, to allow the and a hospital in Bissau. On 10 July, Šimonović of the Secretary-General on UNIOGBIS resumption of bilateral cooperation with the attended a national conference on impunity, justice and human rights, stating that impunity and the restoration of constitutional order international community. remains the main challenge to the protection of (S/2013/262). Representatives of the Eco- On 18 July, Ramos-Horta attended a meet- human rights and the stability of the country. He nomic Community of West African States ing of the Council of Ministers of the CPLP in said that the number of gross human rights viola- (ECOWAS), the Community of Portuguese- Maputo, Mozambique. The ministers adopt- tions has increased since the promulgation of the Speaking Countries (CPLP), the Peacebuild- ed a declaration on the situation in Guinea- amnesty law in 2008 and following the 2012 coup. Šimonović stressed that certain human rights pre- ing Commission (PBC) and Guinea-Bissau Bissau urging political actors: to create con- requisites must be in place for the 24 November also addressed the Council (S/PV.6963). ditions for the safe return of Bissau-Guinean elections to be free and fair. On 28 June, Transitional President Man- citizens in exile, to hold elections with full uel Serifo Nhamadjo set a date for elections, respect for democratic processes and human announcing over state radio that “conditions rights, and to fight impunity and drug traf- Key Issues are ripe for holding safe and secure legislative ficking (S/2013/510). The declaration further The Council, in considering the Secretary- and presidential elections on November 24”. noted that a lack of effective civilian oversight General’s latest report, will be principally From 3-16 July, a Needs Assessment Mission over the security apparatus threatens the func- concerned with the restoration of constitu- led by the UN Department of Political Affairs, tioning of state institutions. The CPLP also tional order in Guinea-Bissau. evaluated the pre-election environment. On reiterated its commitment to coordinating with More specifically, the Council is likely to 15 July, Ramos-Horta met with Nhamadjo to other international partners on Guinea-Bissau. be focused on how the UN can most effec- share the preliminary conclusions of the mis- According to a report released by the tively facilitate the 24 November legislative sion, which will make recommendations about World Food Programme (WFP) office in and presidential elections.

UN DOCUMENTS ON GUINEA-BISSAU Security Council Resolutions S/RES/2103 (22 May 2013) extended the mandate of UNIOGBIS for one year. S/RES/2048 (18 May 2012) imposed a travel ban on coup leaders and established a new sanctions committee. Security Council Presidential Statement S/PRST/2012/15 (21 April 2012) was on the coup in Guinea- Bissau. Secretary-General’s Reports S/2013/499 (21 August 2013) was on the restoration of constitutional order in Guinea-Bissau. S/2013/359 (17 June 2013) was on transnational organised crime and illicit drug trafficking in West Africa and the Sahel region. S/2013/262 (6 May 2013) was on the restoration of constitutional order and the activities of UNIOGBIS. Security Council Letters S/2013/510 (26 August 2013) transmitted to the Council two outcome documents from the CPLP meeting on 18 July in Maputo, Mozambique. S/2012/974 (31 December 2012) concerned the appointment of José Ramos-Horta as Special Representative and head of UNIOGBIS. Security Council Meeting Records S/PV.6968 (22 May 2013) concerned adoption of resolution 2103. S/PV.6963 (9 May 2013) concerned the report of the Secretary-General on the restoration of constitutional order and the activities of UNIOGBIS. Security Council Press Statement SC/10857 (13 December 2012) expressed serious concern over the lack of progress in the restoration of constitutional order in Guinea-Bissau. Sanctions Committee Document S/2012/975 (31 December 2012) transmitted the annual report on the Guinea-Bissau Sanctions Committee’s activities from 18 May to 31 December 2012. OTHER RELEVANT FACTS UNIOGBIS Size and Composition Authorised: 52 international civilians, 46 local civilians, two military advisers, 12 police and six UN volunteers (as of 31 May 2013). Special Representative of the Secretary-General and Head of UNIOGBIS José Ramos-Horta (Timor-Leste) Chair of the Guinea-Bissau Sanctions Committee Ambassador Mohammed Loulichki (Morocco) Chair of the Guinea-Bissau Configuration of the Peacebuilding Commission Ambassador Luiz Alberto Figueiredo Machado (Brazil) ECOWAS Mission in Guinea-Bissau (ECOMIB) Size and Composition 665 soldiers and police from Burkina Faso, Nigeria and Senegal (as of 16 January 2013). USEFUL ADDITIONAL RESOURCES Forty-Third Ordinary Session of the ECOWAS Authority Heads of State and Government: Final Communique, ECOWAS, 17-18 July 2013. The end of impunity? After the kingpins, what next for Guinea-Bissau?, Institute for Security Studies, July 2013. Guinea-Bissau: Synthesis of Rapid Food Security Assessment, World Food Programme, June 2013.

10 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast September 2013 Guinea-Bissau (con’t)

The ongoing challenges posed to Guinea- Crime in Guinea-Bissau; Ramos-Horta will manage to fulfil those Bissau by drug trafficking and transnational • requesting a briefing from the Electoral aspects of its near-term mandate relating to organised crime could also be an issue of Assistance Division of the Department of the facilitation of elections. concern for the Council. Political Affairs regarding the assessment Nonetheless, while setting a date for legis- mission and preparations for elections; and lative and presidential elections could be seen Options • issuing a presidential or press statement as a positive step toward the restoration of The Council may wish to consider the fol- signalling the Council’s focus on the need constitutional order, the Council is unlikely lowing options: for timely, free and fair elections. to substantively change its approach to Guin- • requesting an update from the Secretary- ea-Bissau until more concrete progress has General regarding progress in ensuring Council and Wider Dynamics been demonstrated. For example, the call by an adequate anti-drug component within Council members showed a high degree of ECOWAS for lifting sanctions is unlikely to UNIOGBIS; unity with the unanimous adoption of reso- be considered at this juncture. • reiterating its encouragement for mem- lution 2103. There also appears to be cau- Togo is the penholder on Guinea-Bissau, ber states to provide financial backing for tious optimism among Council members and Morocco is the chair of the 2048 Guin- the work of the UN Office on Drugs and that UNIOGBIS under the leadership of ea-Bissau Sanctions Committee.

Libya

Expected Council Action Magariaf resigned as president of the GNC on August that at least 51 people had died in a In September, the Security Council expects 28 May following the adoption of the “political broadening wave of apparent political assas- to be briefed by Tarek Mitri, the Special isolation law”—which precludes former offi- sinations in the east yet “authorities have Representative of the Secretary-General and cials of the Muammar Qaddafi regime from not prosecuted anyone for these crimes, and head of the UN Support Mission in Libya holding leadership positions in the government. have no suspects in custody”. In response (UNSMIL), followed by consultations. The Interior MinisterMohammed Khalifa Al- to the 26 July assassination of political Council will also likely receive the periodic Sheikh resigned on 18 August, claiming lack of activist Abdelsalam al-Mosmary, protesters briefing by the chair of the 1970 Libya Sanc- support from the prime minister. The deputy attacked the offices of the Muslim Brother- tions Committee, Ambassador Eugène-Rich- prime minister previously resigned on 3 August, hood-linked Justice and Construction Par- ard Gasana (Rwanda), and hold consultations citing over-centralised decision-making. ty, as well as the headquarters of the liberal on the Libya sanctions. No Council action is Nouri Abu Sahmain was sworn in as GNC National Forces Alliance. planned at this stage. president on 25 June, becoming the first In his last Council briefing, Mitri high- The mandates of UNSMIL and the Panel Amazigh (Berber) president of Libya. Despite lighted the deficiencies in the implementa- of Experts (PoE) assisting the 1970 Sanc- his appointment, tensions with minority groups tion of the rule of law in Libya, with an esti- tions Committee expire on 16 March and 14 have continued to affect the political transition. mated 7,000 to 8,000 detainees who have April 2014, respectively. Following the 16 July adoption of the elec- been waiting since 2011 to be charged or toral law on the election of the 60-member released, and evidence of deaths in custody Key Recent Developments constitution-drafting assembly, four Amazigh due to torture. He said efforts to improve On 9 June, the General National Congress GNC members resigned, claiming there was the prison situation had met with “varying (GNC) passed a resolution requiring the gov- poor representation of cultural minorities and degrees of success”. On 26 July, about 1,200 ernment to dissolve all former revolutionary insufficient mechanisms to ensure consensus inmates fled a prison in Benghazi after a riot. brigades by the end of the year and integrate to protect minority rights in the law. On 31 May, Pre-Trial Chamber I of the their members into the army or police. Yet Regional tensions prevail in the eastern International Criminal Court (ICC) rejected some brigades continue to challenge state Cyrenaica region, where the Cyrenaica Transi- Libya’s challenge to the admissibility of the case authority throughout the country, success- tional Council, which unilaterally declared its against Saif al-Islam Qaddafi and reminded fully blocking access to the Interior Ministry autonomy in June, has threatened to escalate Libya of its obligation to surrender the suspect for a week in early July. the disruption of oil production and exports to the court. (Libya has challenged the admis- The government has been rocked by a if its demands for federal status are not met. sibility of the cases against Qaddafi and former series of high-level resignations. Mohammed Human Rights Watch reported in early intelligence chief Abdullah al-Senussi, claiming

UN DOCUMENTS ON LIBYA Security Council Resolution S/RES/2095 (14 March 2013) extended the mandates of UNSMIL and the Panel of Experts. Security Council Meeting Records S/PV.6981 (18 June 2013) was the latest briefing by Special Representative Tarek Mitri and the chairman of the 1970 Sanctions Committee, Eugène-Richard Gasana.S/PV.6962 (8 May 2013) was the fifth briefing by the ICC Prosecutor on the situation in Libya.Security Council Press Statement SC/11042 (20 June 2013) stressed the necessity to reject violence in all its forms in Libya and to resolve disagreements peacefully and through dialogue. Sanctions Committee Document S/2013/99 (9 March 2013) was the latest report of the Panel of Experts to the Council. OTHER RELEVANT FACTS Size and Composition as of 31 May 2013 Authorised:143 international civilians; 67 local civilians; 7 police officers, three UN volunteers.Duration: 16 September 2011 to present. Special Representative of the Secretary-General and Head of UNSMIL Tarek Mitri (Lebanon)

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast September 2013 securitycouncilreport.org 11 Libya (con’t) that they were already under investigation in Key Issues towards security sector reform and the Libya.) Libya asked the Appeals Chamber to An overarching issue is the fragile security demobilisation of militias. suspend the order to transfer Qaddafi, but the situation due to the existence of militias that petition was rejected on 18 July. On 31 July, a challenge the state’s monopoly of the legiti- Council Dynamics court in Misrata sentenced to death six senior mate use of force. The deterioration of the security situation members of the Qaddafi regime, four of whom The deficiencies in the rule of law are a and the fragility of the political transition were charged in absentia. related issue. A further related issue is the are sources of concern for Council mem- In her 8 May briefing to the Council, ICC impact of regional instability on Libya. bers. Even if Libya has been a source of divi- Prosecutor Fatou Bensouda expressed con- A pressing issue is the lack of inclusiveness sion in the Council—where some members cern about the alleged crimes committed by of the political process as shown by the recent have questioned the way in which resolutions rebel forces during the revolution, includ- adoption of the political isolation law and the 1970 and 1973 were implemented while ing the expulsion of residents of Tawergha electoral law that will govern the election of others are more likely to showcase positive and the destruction of the city. More than the constitution-drafting assembly. A related developments since the 2011 revolution—it 35,000 homeless Tawerghans have been pre- issue is the potential impact of the upcoming seems many Council members are aware of vented from returning by armed groups from municipal and assembly elections, whose date the current shortfalls in the transition process. Misrata. On 31 July, the Ministry of Justice is yet to be set. In this context, France will organise a Core announced that a fact-finding commission An important issue for the Council is Security Partners meeting on Libya—a group established more than a year ago to investi- the conflicting views of Libya and the ICC that includes among others France, the UK, gate the crimes had begun work. regarding the trial of the two ICC indict- the US, the UN and regional organisations— Gasana is likely to brief the Council on ees, as well as other investigations currently in New York on the margins of the General the 8 July meeting of the 1970 Sanctions underway. (According to article 87 of the Assembly in September. Committee during which the PoE presented Rome Statute, if a state fails to cooperate Council members are also aware of the its interim report. Among its recommenda- with the ICC and prevents it from exercising controversy that the last two Council brief- tions, the PoE asked Libya to clarify the pro- its functions and powers, the court may refer ings have sparked in Libya after Mitri report- cedures in place at all ministries other than the matter to the Council.) ed how, following the adoption of resolution the Ministry of Defence to deal with procure- 2095, some local actors “cast doubts on the ment of lethal material. Options intentions of the international community Options for the Council include: and attributed to the UN an intervention- Human Rights-Related Developments • receiving a briefing and taking no action; ist design”. After local press reported on his The Special Rapporteur on the rights to freedom • issuing a statement ahead of the upcom- bleak assessment of the security situation of peaceful assembly and of association, Maina ing elections emphasising the need for and political developments on 18 June, Mitri Kiai, observed in a 30 May report that several pro- visions of a new law on peaceful assembly did not the GNC, the government and the con- held a press conference on 23 June to dispel comply with international norms and standards stitution-drafting assembly to work inclu- misperceptions. Mitri explained how some related to freedom of peaceful assembly (A/ sively for national reconciliation, justice, Council members, “due to their excessive HRC/23/39/Add.2). He also expressed concern respect for human rights and the rule of focus on the problems, lean towards having about reported obstructions faced by peaceful law; and greater concerns over what is called in the UN protestors who called for the protection of cul- tural and religious sites in Libya. He urged Libya • issuing a statement asking Libya to the democratic transition and state-building.” to take positive measures to ensure the free exer- enforce arms-control mechanisms with- Some Council members have shown concern cise of the rights to freedom of association and in the country (including the issuance of over the way actors in Libya have misrepre- peaceful assembly. end-user certificates as requested by res- sented the Council’s engagement. olution 2095) and to take decisive steps The UK is the penholder on Libya.

South Sudan and Sudan

Expected Council Action anticipated from these matters. continued. The AU Peace and Security Coun- In September, the Security Council expects cil (PSC) convened at ministerial level on 29 to hold two meetings, likely in consultations, Key Recent Developments July in Addis Ababa to discuss the situation on Sudan-South Sudan issues. High-level international engagement to address between the two countries. The PSC issued a At press time, no Council outcome was the crisis in Sudan-South Sudan relations has communiqué in which it, inter alia:

UN DOCUMENTS ON SOUTH SUDAN AND SUDAN Security Council Resolution S/RES/2046 (2 May 2012) was on Sudan-South Sudan relations. Security Council Presidential Statement S/PRST/2013/14 (23 August 2013) expressed concern about the challenges facing implementation of the 27 September 2012 agreements. Security Council Press Statement SC/11103 (23 August 2013) was a press statement condemning the violence in South Sudan’s Jonglei state. Security Council Meeting Record S/PV.7022 (23 August 2013) was the meeting at which the presidential statement was adopted.

12 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast September 2013 South Sudan and Sudan (con’t)

• endorsed the establishment of the Ad South Sudan claiming that it was acting in not take place while South Sudan continues Hoc Investigative Mechanism (AIM) and self-defence when its troops came under fire to support them, an allegation that South the AU Border Program Technical Team in Teskuin, a border town claimed by both Sudan denies. (The SPLM-N, the former (AUBP TT) to study allegations by Sudan countries, and alleging that Sudan crossed northern branch of the ruling party in South and South Sudan that each supports reb- over the centre line of the SDBZ. (The centre Sudan, has been fighting the government els in the other’s territory and to deter- line has yet to be defined to the satisfaction of Sudan in South Kordofan and Blue Nile mine the centre line of the Safe Demilita- of both countries.) No civilian casualties were states since 2011. Sudan and the SPLM-N rised Border Zone (SDBZ), respectively; reported in this incident. last held face-to-face negotiations in April, • urged Sudan not to suspend the transport In the midst of ongoing tensions, both but these talks made no progress.) of oil from South Sudan until the AIM countries continued to face significant inter- In East Darfur, tensions between the Maa- and the AUBP TT have time to finalise nal challenges. In July, Jonglei state in South lia and Rizeigat groups regarding land and cat- their work; Sudan was once again engulfed in inter-ethnic tle ownership deteriorated into violence. On • recalled its earlier decision supporting violence between the Lou Nuer and Murle 10 August, clashes between the two groups the 21 September 2012 proposal of the groups. (Inter-ethnic clashes involving these reportedly left 20 Maalia and 50 Rizeigat dead AU High Level Implementation Panel groups also claimed hundreds of lives in Jon- and dozens of people wounded. Several vil- (AUHIP) on the final status of Abyei, glei in late 2012 and early 2013.) According lages were also burned in the fighting, which which called for a referendum that to Jongolei Boyoris, a member of the Jonglei continued for a number of days. On 12 August, includes the participation of the Ngok State Assembly, more than 320 Murle, mainly Abdel Hamid Musa Kasha, the Rizeigat gov- Dinka and other permanent residents women and children, died as a result of this ernor of East Darfur, escaped unharmed from of Abyei to determine whether the area latest outbreak of violence. The recent fighting an attack by members of the Maalia group. belongs to Sudan or South Sudan; has displaced more than 100,000 people. The Council held the second of its semi- • expressed its intention to visit Abyei to On 23 July, South Sudan President Sal- monthly consultations on Sudan-South demonstrate its support for the UN Inter- va Kiir dismissed all ministers and deputy Sudan on 22 August with Haile Menkerios, im Security Force for Abyei (UNISFA) ministers, appointing a new cabinet within the Special Representative of the Secretary- and the people in the area; and a week. However, Kiir delayed for several General to the AU and head of the UN Office • decided to extend the mandate of AUHIP weeks in appointing a new vice president, a to the AU, briefing in his capacity as Special for an additional six months. post that was vacated when Kiir dismissed Envoy of the Secretary-General for Sudan Assistant Secretary-General for Peace- political rival Riek Machar. Finally, on 23 and South Sudan. He told Council members keeping Operations Edmond Mulet briefed August, Kiir named his political ally James that Kiir might visit Khartoum in early Sep- Council members in consultations on 7 Wani Igga as vice president, pending approval tember for a summit meeting with President August on Sudan-South Sudan and UNISFA. by the parliament. Among other key appoint- Omar al-Bashir. He said that SDBZ aerial reconnaissance by ments, Kiir named Manyang Juuk, governor On 23 August, the Council adopted a presi- UNISFA had been temporarily suspended of the turbulent Jonglei state, as defence min- dential statement (S/PRST/2013/14) focusing because it was the rainy season and because ister, and Barnaba Marial Benjamin, formerly on Sudan-South Sudan relations and issued of fighting around Kadugli, the headquarters the information minister, as foreign minister. a press statement (SC/11103) condemning of the Joint Border Verification and Monitor- On 23 July, Kiir also dismissed Pagan the violence in Jonglei state. The presidential ing Mechanism (JBVMM). Mulet also said Amum, the Secretary-General of the Sudan statement called on Sudan and South Sudan that the advance team of troops providing People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM) and to urgently implement the cooperation agree- protection to JBVMM monitors would likely South Sudan’s chief negotiator with Sudan. ments of 27 September 2012, which focused be deployed by the end of August, thereby In doing so, Kiir issued a decree launching on security, oil wealth sharing, trade and oth- allowing the monitors and support staff to an investigation of Amum for “allegedly mis- er issues. Ambassador Daffa-Alla Elhag Ali assume their Council-mandated monitoring managing the affairs of the SPLM, adminis- Osman of Sudan and Amanuel Yoanes Ajawin and verification responsibilities. tratively and politically” and “for exhibiting of South Sudan addressed the Council after On 12 August, Sudan again extended insubordination to the SPLM leadership by the adoption of the statement (S/PV.7022). its deadline, this time to 6 September, to using the public media to discredit the SPLM Ali Osman accused rebels in Sudan of “ter- shut down oil shipments from South Sudan, and its leadership”. (In June, Amum chal- rorizing civilians,” while Ajawin expressed his apparently thanks to active mediation by lenged Kiir’s decision to dismiss two minis- country’s commitment to better relations with AUHIP Chair Thabo Mbeki. (The original 7 ters—Kosti Manibe, the minister of finance Sudan. The press statement on South Sudan August deadline had already been extended and economic planning, and Deng Alor, the condemned the recent violence against civil- to 22 August. Sudan has threatened to close minister of cabinet affairs—amidst allega- ians in Jonglei state, while deploring the large oil pipelines from South Sudan because it tions against them of corruption.) scale displacement caused by these attacks and believes that South Sudan is supporting reb- In Sudan, on 31 July, Ibrahim Gandour, noting that South Sudan holds the primary els on its territory.) the official responsible for negotiations with responsibility to protect civilians (SC/11103). Sudan and South Sudan exchanged gun- the SPLM-N (SPLM-North) rebel group, fire along the border in early August, with said that direct talks with the rebels would

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast September 2013 securitycouncilreport.org 13 South Sudan and Sudan (con’t)

Key Issues • adopting a statement in which the Council sovereignty posed by rebel groups. A key immediate issue is how to dissuade reiterates its decision in resolution 2046 Several Council members also remain Sudan from closing oil pipelines from South for Sudan and the SPLM-N to negotiate troubled by the situation in Abyei. The tem- Sudan, given the enormous role oil plays in a settlement on the basis of the 28 June porary administrative structures—the Abyei the economies of both countries. 2011 Framework Agreement, which calls Area Council, the Abyei Area Adminstration A related issue is whether Sudan and for the parties “to work towards an inclu- and the Abyei Police Service—still have not South Sudan will fulfil their commitment to sive national process in the Republic of been established, and discussions on the final accept the findings of the AIM and AUBP TT. Sudan, aimed at constitutional reform”. status of Abyei have made no progress. An additional important issue is whether It appears that members demonstrated the Council can use the progress reflected by Council Dynamics flexibility in the negotiations on the presi- the recent issuance of its two statements as a The most immediate concern of Council dential statement and the press statement. springboard for more constructive engage- members is the threatened shut down of oil It likewise has been noted that the initial ment on Sudan-South Sudan matters. pipelines from South Sudan. Some Coun- draft of the presidential statement was more cil members see this threat as unwarranted “neutral” than previous draft statements on Options brinkmanship by Sudan that erodes the Sudan-South Sudan relations on which the Options for the Council include: potential for progress in relations between Council was unable to achieve consensus. • requesting a briefing from Mbeki on the the two countries. There is likewise a sense Several members viewed these negotiations state of relations between Sudan and among several members that the threatened as constructive and were encouraged that South Sudan; oil shutdown should not be used by Sudan as the Council produced written outcomes after • travelling to Sudan and South Sudan a bargaining chip to extract concessions from several months of gridlock. and meeting with key officials to signal South Sudan on other issues. Nonetheless, The US is the penholder on Sudan-South the its commitment to improved relations some are more sympathetic toward Sudan Sudan issues. between the two countries; and than others given the significant threats to its

Somalia

Expected Council Action released on 12 July, but due to initial objec- which killed three people (SC/11080). In September, the Council expects a briefing tions by Russia, release of the Eritrea report On 1 August, the semi-autonomous state regarding the first report of the Secretary- (S/2013/440) was delayed until 24 July. On of Puntland announced that it would cut off General on the UN Assistance Mission in 23 July, the Federal Government of Soma- all links with the FGS. A 5 August official Somalia (UNSOM) to be followed by con- lia (FGS) acknowledged the report but statement by the Puntland administration sultations. The Council is also scheduled to expressed its wish to be consulted on the reads: “The fragmented country has been receive a quarterly report from the AU on the findings and conclusions of future SEMG plunged back into a vicious cycle of violence, AU Mission in Somalia (AMISOM). reports prior to their publication. displacement, clan animosities …and a com- Since the 19 June attack on the UN Devel- plete disregard for the country’s genuine Pro- Key Recent Developments opment Programme (UNDP) compound by visional Federal Constitution …Puntland The Council last addressed Somalia on 24 Al Shabaab, which resulted in more than 20 hereby suspends all cooperation and relations July with the adoption of resolution 2111, deaths, terrorist bombings and targeted assas- with (the) Federal Government of Somalia”. reauthorising the mandate of the Somalia sinations have continued to plague Mogadishu. The statement also accused the FGS of failing and Eritrea Monitoring Group (SEMG) On 24 July, Al Shabaab claimed it had carried to equitably share power, resources and for- until 25 November 2014 (S/PV.7009). Pre- out more than 50 attacks in Mogadishu dur- eign aid. Despite the severing of ties, Puntland viously, Council members considered the ing the preceding two weeks. On 29 July, the is nonetheless planning to participate in the SEMG reports during consultations on 18 Council issued a press statement condemning international donor conference “A New Deal July. The Somalia report (S/2013/413) was the Al Shabaab attack on the Turkish embassy, for Somalia” on 16 September in Brussels.

UN DOCUMENTS ON SOMALIA Security Council Resolutions S/RES/2111 (24 July 2013) reauthorised the Somalia and Eritrea Monitoring Group until 25 November 2014. S/RES/2102 (2 May 2013) created UNSOM and authorised its deployment for one year as of 3 June 2013. S/RES/2093 (6 March 2013) authorised AMISOM deployment until 28 February 2014 and partially lifted the arms embargo. Security Council Presidential Statement S/PRST/2013/7 (6 June 2013) expressed support for the deployment of UNSOM and addressed other recent developments in Somalia. Secretary-General’s Report S/2013/326 (31 May 2013) was the Secretary-General’s report on Somalia. Security Council Meeting Records S/PV.7009 (24 July 2013) concerned the adoption of resolution 2111 reauthorising the Somalia and Eritrea Monitoring Group.S/PV.6975 (6 June 2013) was a briefing on the Secretary-General’s report on Somalia and other recent developments. S/PV.6959 (2 May 2013) concerned the creation and authorisation of UNSOM. Security Council Press Statements SC/11080 (29 July 2013) condemned the car-bomb attack on the Turkish embassy in Mogadishu. SC/11039 (19 June 2013) condemned the attack by Al Shabaab on the UNDP compound in Mogadishu. SC/11032 (13 June 2013) concerned the situation in the Juba regions of Somalia. Sanctions Committee Documents S/2013/440 (24 July 2013) transmitted the annual Monitoring Group report on Eritrea. S/2013/415 (12 July 2013) transmitted a report of the UN Resident and Humanitarian Coordinator for Somalia. S/2013/413 (12 July 2013) transmitted the annual Monitoring Group report on Somalia. Human Rights Council Documents A/HRC/24/45/Add.2 (1 July 2013) concerned a mission to Somalia on 8-14 December 2012 by the Working Group on the Use of Mercenaries. A/HRC/DEC/23/114 (28 June 2013) concerned assistance to Somalia in the field of human rights. USEFUL ADDITIONAL RESOURCE Communiqué, Heads of State and Government of the Troop-Contributing Countries of AMISOM, Ethiopia and Somalia, 4 August 2013.

14 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast September 2013 Somalia (con’t)

On 4 August, AMISOM’s troop-contrib- reported cases of sexual violence in Moga- members does not guarantee its independence. uting countries, Ethiopia, Somalia and the dishu during the first half of the year. Last (Following a request from the National Union of AU met in Kampala, Uganda, and issued year, there were at least 1,700 people affected Somali Journalists, a technical expert committee on re-drafting the media bill was launched on 28 a communiqué outlining several decisions by sexual violence in Somalia, according to July to revise the draft legislation before its sub- regarding Jubaland, the FGS, the Inter- the Office of the Secretary-General’s Special mission to the federal parliament.) governmental Authority on Development Representative on Sexual Violence in Con- (IGAD) and AMISOM: flict. UNICEF stated that about one-third Key Issues • control over the Kismayo seaport and air- of the victims of sexual violence in Soma- The Council will be principally focused upon port must be given to the FGS; lia are children. One recent alleged victim, UNSOM’s progress during its first three • discussions between the FGS and repre- has publicly accused the Somali National months of deployment, including steps it has sentatives of the Juba regions should be Security Forces of abducting her and then taken toward coping with the evolving security “fast tracked and made inclusive”; handing her over to AMISOM troops at the situation in Mogadishu and the rest of Somalia. • efforts by FGS to engage stakeholders Masiah compound, where she was allegedly Another issue for the Council is UN-AU in the Juba regions in political dialogue drugged and repeatedly raped. In a statement relations, particularly within the context of should be supported; released 15 August, AMISOM announced a ongoing differences over AMISOM’s support • IGAD should continue to play a media- joint investigation with the FGS. package and mandate. The human rights tion role in line with the five principles On 26 August, the UN Department of record of AMISOM troops could also be a outlined in its communiqué of 3 May; and Peacekeeping Operations and the AU, in close point of increasing contention. • the FGS will be supported in establish- consultation with FGS, began a jointly-led Difficulties implementing a federal system ing authority over the Juba regions, par- review of AMISOM. The mission, which is in relation to Somaliland, Puntland, and Juba- ticularly control over federally owned anticipated to last two weeks including trips to land among other areas, is likely to be a subject infrastructure. Addis Ababa and the four sectors of AMISOM of recurring concern for Council members. At press time, a resumption of talks between deployment within Somalia, is also expected Ahmed Madobe, president of the unrecog- to establish benchmarks for a possible future Options nised state of Jubaland, and a high-level FGS UN peacekeeping operation. In terms of out- Given the difficult operational environment, delegation was expected to take place in Addis put, the joint mission’s goal is to produce a new the Council could request a special briefing Ababa under the auspices of IGAD. UN-AU strategic framework to be presented from the UN Department of Safety and Secu- On 14 August, Médecins Sans Frontières by 10 October for consideration by the Coun- rity regarding safety measures implemented (MSF) announced the immediate closure of cil and the AU Peace and Security Council. since the 19 June attack in Mogadishu. all programmes in Somalia. MSF had provid- The Council may wish to consider issu- ed medical assistance in Somalia since 1991, Human Rights-Related Developments ing a press statement in support of the 16 with 1,500 staff members recently working The Human Rights Council (HRC) during its 24th September international donor conference in session (9-27 September) is due to hold a stand- throughout the country treating approximate- Brussels hosted by the EU. alone high-level interactive dialogue to explore ly 50,000 people per month. In a statement how all stakeholders can work more effectively on published on 20 August, MSF explained its the realisation of human rights in Somalia (A/HRC/ Council and Wider Dynamics decision to withdraw from Somalia: DEC/23/114). During its 24th session, the HRC The Council has exhibited a high degree of … the very parties with whom we had will also consider the report of the Independent unity with respect to policymaking on Soma- Expert on the situation of human rights in Somalia been negotiating minimum levels of secu- lia during the last few months. Perhaps no (A/HRC/24/40) and a report by the HRC Work- rity tolerated and accepted attacks against ing Group on the use of mercenaries on its visit clearer expression of unanimity has been the humanitarian workers. In some cases, they to Somalia last December (A/HRC/24/45/Add.2). issuance of three press statements and a pres- were actively supporting the criminal acts On 19 July, the Office for the High Commis- idential statement—each requiring consen- against our staff …. Acceptance of vio- sioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) urged Somalia sus—in June and July. to review a draft media law to ensure its confor- lence against health workers has perme- However, as difficulties become evident mity with international human rights standards. ated Somali society and this acceptance is OHCHR expressed several concerns about the in implementing resolution 2093 of 6 March now shared by many armed groups and proposed law, saying the vague language and (which partially lifted the arms embargo, many levels of civilian government, from broad categories contained in the draft legisla- reauthorised AMISOM and established the clan elders to district commissioners to the tion could easily be used to curtail freedom of structural parameters for UNSOM), earlier Federal Somali Government. expression. The bill includes a provision allowing divisions among Council members may re- for the suspension of journalists who have merely At a Geneva press conference on 16 been accused of violating the media legislation. emerge (e.g., regarding modification of the August, the UN Office for the Coordina- The draft also requires journalists to reveal their arms embargo). tion of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) and sources if published information arouses public The UK is the penholder on Somalia, UN Children’s Fund (UNICEF) released sentiment. Furthermore, OHCHR said the compo- and the Republic of Korea is the chair of statistics regarding sexual violence in Soma- sition of the regulatory body that would be estab- the 751/1907 Somalia-Eritrea Sanctions lished by the law and the selection process for its lia. According to OCHA, there were 800 Committee.

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast September 2013 securitycouncilreport.org 15 Yemen

Expected Council Action period, escalating tensions with Sunni mem- The Office for the Coordination of Late in September, the Council expects a bers of the Islah party and Salafi groups. Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) stressed briefing on Yemen by Jamal Benomar, the The second plenary session of the NDC— in July the severe humanitarian and early- Special Adviser to the Secretary-General on which will contribute to the drafting of a new recovery needs Yemen still faces. Regarding Yemen. Secretary-General of the Gulf Coop- constitution and pave the way for the holding internally displaced persons (IDPs), 306,791 eration Council (GCC) Abdullatif bin Rashid of general elections in 2014—started on 8 people remain displaced in the north and Al-Zayani and a senior representative of Yemen June. The session, which lasted for a month, 232,025 former IDPs have returned home, are expected to brief the Council as well. The dealt with reports by working groups on rights mainly in the south, where they need help outcome will largely depend on the successful and freedoms, independent government bod- to rebuild their lives. In addition, the UN completion of the National Dialogue Confer- ies, good governance, defence and security, Office of the High Commissioner for Refu- ence (NDC) set for 18 September. sustainable development and transitional gees reported that more than 46,000 refu- The mandate of the Office of the Special justice. The groups working on the south- gees (mainly from Ethiopia and Somalia) had Adviser on Yemen was renewed in June with- ern issue, Sa’ada and state-building were not reached Yemen during the first six months out an expiration date. able to agree on key issues, and consultations of this year. OCHA outlined the risks for continued at the working-group level before vulnerable groups as humanitarian activities Key Recent Developments debating and putting them to a vote in the shift from relief to early recovery where open Following concerns about potential terrorist third and final plenary to be held in Septem- conflict has ended. In spite of the humani- attacks, the US State Department closed 19 ber. The NDC is scheduled to conclude by tarian challenges (e.g. food insecurity, areas US embassies in the Middle East and Africa 18 September, but it is unclear that it will be with unexploded ordnance, lack of basic ser- on 4 August. While the closure—which was able to reach all its objectives at the set date. vices), OCHA said the Yemen humanitarian followed by other Western countries—lasted The consensus committee, which met in consolidated appeal remains underfunded at about a week for the other embassies, the June for the first time, is expected to play just 43 percent, including five thematic clus- US Embassy in Sana’a only reopened on 18 an important role on issues that cannot be ters funded at less than 25 percent. August. Although it is unclear what kind of agreed upon at the working-group level. The threat motivated this decision, the involvement final outcomes adopted by vote at the NDC Human Rights-Related Development of Al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) will be the general principles and rules for During its 24th session (9-27 September), the Human Rights Council will consider the report in a terrorist plot has been reported. An August the constitution and future legislation. Local of the High Commissioner for Human Rights on assessment of Al-Qaida by the Canadian Secu- press reported in mid-August that members Yemen (A/HRC/24/34). The High Commissioner rity Intelligence Service stated that, of the dif- of the southern movement had abandoned notes with concern the practice of prolonged ferent Al-Qaida regional affiliates, “Yemen- the NDC, protesting the lack of tangible detention without trial or without proper documen- based AQAP is frequently identified as the solutions to the southern issue so far. On tation and the instances of security forces using excessive force when dispersing demonstrations. most potent threat”. Since 27 July, attacks by 21 August, state television broadcast a gov- The report documents cases of threats and physi- US drones in Yemen have been reported to be ernment apology to the people in the south, cal attacks on journalists by security forces and on the rise and have sparked protests. the east and the Houthis for the wars waged various armed groups as well as cases of threats The situation in the Sa’ada province, against them under former President Ali against judges and discrimination against the controlled by the Houthi Shia rebel group, Abdullah Saleh despite the fact that current Muhamasheen community. The High Commis- sioner regrets that since September 2012 the gov- remains tense. Nonetheless, in the 11 June President Abd Rabbuh Mansour Hadi was ernment has not reached a consensus regarding briefing, Benomar highlighted how despite then vice president for 18 years. the appointment of commissioners for the national deep divisions, the Sa’ada NDC working Although the progress of the NDC has commission of inquiry into allegations of human group has succeeded in reaching a consen- been slower than initially planned, prepara- rights violations that occurred in 2011. sus on language about the roots of the con- tions have started for the holding of gener- flict. Moreover, Houthi militants were able in al elections in February 2014. In June, the Key Issues June to re-bury their leader, Hussein Badred- Supreme Commission for Elections and Ensuring the timely completion of the NDC din al-Houthi, who was killed in 2004, after Referendum (SCER), supported by the and the successful achievement of its objec- the government handed over his remains in UN Development Programme and several tives, including agreement on the form of December 2012, in a ceremony attended donors, began to replace the existing voter government, is a key issue. The inclusiveness by tens of thousands of followers. However, registry with a biometric one. The SCER also of the measures leading up to the general clashes between Houthi groups and securi- announced that the referendum for the new elections—including the constitution-draft- ty services have continued in the reporting constitution would be held on 15 October. ing process—is a related issue.

UN DOCUMENTS ON YEMEN Security Council Resolution S/RES/2051 (12 June 2012) focused on the second phase of the transition and expressed the Council’s readiness to consider further measures, including under Article 41 of the Charter. Security Council Presidential Statement S/PRST/2013/3 (15 February 2013) welcomed the announcement of the launch of the NDC, reiterated the Council’s readiness to consider imposing sanctions against spoilers to the transition and expressed concern over reports of money and weapons being brought into Yemen from outside. Security Council Letters S/2012/469 (18 June 2012) and S/2012/470 (21 June 2012) was the exchange of letters between the Secretary-General and the President of the Council on the establishment of an office of the Special Adviser for an initial period of 12 months. Security Council Meeting Record S/PV.6976 (11 June 2013) was the latest briefing by Special Adviser Benomar. Security Council Press Statement SC/10969 (12 April 2013) welcomed Yemen’s reorganisation of the military and called on all parties to support the president’s decrees and to work to ensure their prompt implementation. OTHER RELEVANT FACT Special Adviser to the Secretary-General and UN Envoy to Yemen Jamal Benomar (Morocco)

16 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast September 2013 Yemen (con’t)

Immediate issues for the Council include the NDC as soon as possible, agreeing on Council Dynamics the precarious security situation, the presence general principles to feed into the consti- Council members continue to follow the situ- of AQAP and persistent violent clashes among tutional process in a peaceful, transparent, ation in Yemen closely: there was a Security tribal groups. Funding and supply of weapons constructive, and reconciliatory manner; Council mission to Yemen on 27 January, a from regional actors are related issues. • reiterating its warning to spoilers of the presidential statement was adopted on 15 The bleak humanitarian situation, includ- political process that Article 41 measures February (S/PRST/2013/3) and there are ing the challenges for IDPs, returnees and could be taken against them; and bi-monthly briefings from Benomar. Coun- refugees from the Horn of Africa, is an ongo- • calling upon all parties to honour to the cil members are aware of the importance of ing issue. extent possible the timetable and bench- the political transition in Yemen at a critical marks set out in the transition agreement moment for other transition processes in the Options and to hold general elections by February region and highlight the close cooperation Options for the Council will depend on the 2014. with regional organisations, the constructive accomplishments of the NDC by the time of Although unlikely, if the NDC is success- discussions within the Council and the cost- the briefing. If the 18 September deadline is fully concluded as planned before the brief- effective UN engagement. The sixth meeting not met, the Council could issue a statement: ing, the Council could issue a statement com- of the Friends of Yemen is scheduled to take • encouraging NDC delegates to make use mending the work of the delegates of the NDC place on 25 September on the margins of the of internal conflict-resolution mechanisms and looking forward to the adoption of the new General Assembly in New York, co-chaired for the issues that remain unsolved (such constitution based on general principles agreed by Saudi Arabia, the UK and Yemen. as the use of the consensus committee); by the NDC, and the holding of a referendum The UK is the penholder on Yemen. • asking political actors in Yemen to finalise and general elections in February 2014.

UNDOF (Golan Heights)

Expected Council Action enhanced self-defence capabilities, reflect- its troops—committed to remain in UNDOF In September, Under-Secretary-General for ing the importance the Council places on the for a further six months. Peacekeeping Operations Hervé Ladsous is safety and security of peacekeeping personnel. The Secretary-General has recommended, expected to brief the Council on the Secre- The Secretary-General’s most recent as a matter of priority, increasing UNDOF’s tary-General’s report, due early in the month, UNDOF report detailed multiple violations force to 1,250 troops—the allowable number on the UN Disengagement Observer Force in recent months of the 1974 Disengagement under the 1974 agreement. It seems DPKO (UNDOF). It is likely the briefing will focus of Forces Agreement between Israel and Syr- has advised it will be able to meet this recom- on the security situation in the Golan, troop ia (S/2013/345). Both the report and resolu- mendation by October. generation for the mission and risk-mitigation tion expressed particular concern over the 6 In recent months, spillover from the con- measures UNDOF is taking to increase the June clashes between the Syrian government flict in Syria has continued to affect the secu- safety and security of its personnel. Follow- and armed opposition in the area of sepa- rity situation in the Golan. Clashes between ing the briefing, Council members will meet ration near the ceasefire line between Israel Syrian government forces and armed opposi- in consultations. No outcome is anticipated. and Syria. (Neither Israeli nor Syrian military tion, particularly shelling, have been ongoing. UNDOF’s mandate expires on 31 forces should be in the area of separation On 16 July Syrian tanks and armoured per- December. under the terms of the 1974 agreement.) sonnel vehicles entered the area of separation Austria announced that it would withdraw during heavy clashes with the armed oppo- Key Recent Developments its troops from UNDOF shortly after the 6 sition. As a result of these clashes, several The Council adopted resolution 2108 on 27 June clashes, fully withdrawing by the end of shells crashed into the Israeli occupied Golan. June, renewing UNDOF for six months. The July. (Croatia and Japan had previously with- Media reports indicate that Syrian gunmen resolution reflected the deteriorating situation drawn troops in late 2012 and early 2013.) (unspecified whether government or opposi- on the ground as a result of the spillover of Fiji, Ireland and Nepal have since contrib- tion forces) infiltrated an unmanned Israeli the Syrian conflict, which has jeopardised the uted troops to UNDOF to fill the gap left by position later the same day. As Israeli troops integrity of the ceasefire line between Israel these withdrawals. The Philippines—which in approached the position, they were fired and Syria. The resolution included stronger June had also signalled its growing discomfort upon from inside Syria, and they returned language on UNDOF’s risk mitigation and with the increasingly dangerous situation for fire. On 17 August, after Syrian mortars

UN DOCUMENTS ON UNDOF Security Council Resolution S/RES/2108 (27 June 2013) renewed UNDOF until 31 December 2013. Security Council Letter S/2013/425 (16 July 2013) was from Israel regarding violations of the 1974 disengagement agreement between Syria and Israel, in particular the incident of 16 July. Secretary-General’s Reports S/2013/345 (12 June 2013) was the most recent UNDOF report. S/11302/Add.1 (30 May 1974) contained the Agreement on Disengagement between Syrian and Israeli Forces. OTHER RELEVANT FACTS Size and Composition Authorised: 1,165 troops and 68 police (as of 31 July 2013), assisted by 79 military observers of the UN Truce Supervision Organisation’s Observer Group Golan Troop contributors: Fiji, India, Ireland, Philippines, Nepal Approved Budget 1 July 2013 to 30 June 2014: $45.992 million (A/C.5/67/19) UNDOF Force Commander Major General Iqbal Singh Singha (India)

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast September 2013 securitycouncilreport.org 17 UNDOF (Golan Heights) (con’t) errantly landed in the Israeli occupied Golan, Key Issues and security of UNDOF personnel, or both. Israeli forces returned fire with a missile to The spillover from the Syrian crisis into destroy the source of the shelling. UNDOF’s area of operations will continue Council Dynamics UNDOF has also recently found impro- to be of primary concern for the Council. Council members are concerned about the vised explosive devices (IEDs) in its area of Syrian rebel forces control many of the vil- recent exchanges of fire and the escalat- operations. As a result of this new development, lages within the area of separation, which ing tension between Israel and Syria, espe- it seems DPKO has requested troop-contribu- Syrian military forces are prohibited from cially over the issue of arming Hezbollah. tors to provide specialised counter-IED teams entering. But they have done so nonetheless The Council has always generally agreed to the mission. UNDOF convoys have been in response to the rebel presence. that UNDOF contributes to stability in the forcibly stopped at Syrian military checkpoints, A continuing key issue will be the safety and region in the absence of a peace agreement and UNDOF personnel and observation posts security of UN personnel given the proximity between Israel and Syria. However, its util- exposed to stray fire and warning shots. of UNDOF positions to the areas where there ity is particularly high now in order to avoid Another potential risk to both UNDOF have been clashes between Syrian government any potential negative security implications and regional stability is Hezbollah’s overt forces and the Syrian armed opposition. for the region. In this regard, most Coun- involvement in Syria on behalf of the govern- A further key issue is the deteriorating cil members are keen to demonstrate to the ment, accompanied by claims that Hezbollah relationship between Israel and Syria follow- troop-contributing countries their commit- would open a new front against Israel in the ing the recent Israeli airstrikes and threats ment to UNDOF’s ability to operate effec- Syrian Golan and that Syria would provide by Hezbollah that it would open a new front tively and the safety of its personnel. Hezbollah with “game-changing” weapons. against Israel in the Golan. Though in recent years the US has been Since the beginning of the Syrian conflict, the penholder on the Golan Heights, the last Israel has maintained a neutral policy vis- Options three resolutions renewing UNDOF were à-vis the Syrian crisis with a parallel policy The most likely option is for the Council to drafted jointly by the US and Russia, demon- to take action to stop any transfer of stra- receive the report and briefing and take no strating consensus on an issue that is increas- tegic weaponry through Syria to Hezbollah. additional action. One other option would ingly affected by the highly divisive conflict in The most recent Israeli airstrike in Syria was be for the Council to adopt a statement reit- Syria. Most Council members strive to keep on 5 July, targeting anti-ship cruise missiles. erating the need for cooperation between the Syrian conflict and the Golan Heights as Similar airstrikes on weapons depots in Syria Israel and Syria and for all parties to exercise discrete issues—a position that remains dif- occurred on 30 January and 3 and 5 May. restraint or expressing concern for the safety ficult in practice.

Afghanistan

Expected Council Action 2014 presidential and provincial elections are called for foreigners to hold at least two of In September, the Council will hold its quar- to Afghanistan’s future. He argued that “there the five ECC posts. The final law represents terly debate on the situation in Afghanistan. is no alternative to inclusive and transparent a compromise, as an ECC is in place but all Ján Kubiš, Special Representative of the Sec- elections as a means of delivering a political five of its members are Afghans. On 20 July, retary-General and head of the UN Assis- transition with the necessary degree of legiti- Karzai signed the second, wider electoral law tance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA), is macy and acceptability.” Kubiš also expressed that governs the conduct of elections. expected to brief. High-level participation concern about attacks by anti-government ele- The security situation in Afghanistan has is possible, given that it seems the debate ments that have had limited military impact remained unstable, with civilians targeted in will likely take place the week prior to the but have caused significant civilian casualties. several attacks. In Ghanikhel district in Nan- high-level debate of the General Assembly. President Hamid Karzai signed into law garhar Province, 14 children and women died At press time, no outcome was anticipated. two critical pieces of electoral legislation. The when a bomb exploded at a cemetery where UNAMA’s mandate expires on 19 March first, the “structure law”, was promulgated they had congregated on 8 August, the first 2014. on 17 July and determines the structure and day of Eid al-Fitr, to honour a deceased rela- activities of the Independent Electoral Com- tive killed by the Taliban. Key Recent Developments mission and the Electoral Complaints Com- On 3 August, three insurgents tried to The Council last debated the situation in mission (ECC). For several months the ECC attack the Indian consulate in Jalalabad, also Afghanistan on 20 June (S/PV.6983). Kubiš had been a point of contention as Karzai was in Nangarhar Province, detonating a bomb- briefed the Council on developments in the against its establishment while the opposi- rigged car. In addition to the three insur- country emphasising how critical the 5 April tion not only wanted the commission but also gents, nine people died in the assault and

UN DOCUMENTS ON AFGHANISTAN Security Council Resolutions S/RES/2096 (19 March 2013) renewed UNAMA’s mandate until 19 March 2014. S/RES/2069 (9 October 2012) renewed the mandate of ISAF in Afghanistan until 13 October 2013. Security Council Press Statement SC/11086 (5 August 2013) condemned the 3 August attack near the Indian consulate in Jalalabad. Secretary-General’s Report S/2013/350 (13 June 2013) was the latest UNAMA report. Security Council Meeting Record S/PV.6983 (20 June 2013) was the latest UNAMA debate.

18 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast September 2013 Afghanistan (con’t)

24 were injured. Most of the casualties were Human Rights-Related Developments Options children, as the attack occurred close to a According to the UNAMA Human Rights Unit The Council may choose to hold the debate mosque where children were receiving reli- mid-year report on the protection of civilians in but take no action. armed conflict in Afghanistan, the first half of gious instruction. On 5 August, the Coun- 2013 showed an increase of 14 percent in civil- The Council may also consider adopting cil issued a press statement condemning the ian deaths and 28 percent in civilian injuries a statement that: attack (SC/11086). compared to the same period in 2012. This rise • requests a special report from the Secre- Two attacks on female parliamentarians contrasts with the decline observed in 2012. Anti- tary-General on preparations for the 2014 were reported in August. On 7 August, Sen- government elements were responsible for 74 elections; percent of civilian casualties and injuries, with ator Roh Gul Khairzad was ambushed by improvised explosive devices causing most casu- • deplores the rise in violence against civil- armed assailants in Ghazni province. She was alties. Increased ground engagement between ians; and wounded in the attack, while her daughter and Afghan forces and anti-government elements was • reiterates support for intra-Afghan driver were killed. On 13 August, the Taliban the second leading cause of civilian casualties, a reconciliation. abducted Fariba Ahmadi Kakar while she was new trend. On 16 June, President Hamid Karzai appoint- travelling in Ghazni province. She remains in ed five new commissioners to the Afghanistan Council Dynamics the hands of the Taliban. The Taliban have sig- Independent Human Rights Commission, a per- While several members have been encour- nalled that Kakar would be released in return manent national body established under the con- aged by the fact that Afghan security forces for four insurgents in police custody. stitution, and retained four other serving com- have entered the final phase of assuming the Little progress has been made on the rec- missioners. On 28 June, High Commissioner for lead in providing security for their country, Human Rights Navi Pillay expressed concerns onciliation process of late. On 18 June, the Tal- there are widespread concerns about the rise about whether the new commissioners met the iban opened an office in Doha, Qatar to allow required eligibility standards (good reputation, in civilian casualties in recent months. In them to pursue reconciliation talks. However, independence, popular trust, commitment to this respect, several members highlight the Karzai was concerned that the US and the human rights) and complied with international human rights challenges facing Afghanistan. Taliban would side-line his government while standards of the “Paris Principles”. Pillay urged Pakistan and Russia, two key regional the government to reconsider the new appoint- conducting negotiations. He expressed oppo- actors, continue to hold strong views on ments and re-open the selection process. sition to these potential negotiations, believing Afghanistan. Pakistan argues that instability that the talks must be “Afghan-led” and tak- in Afghanistan impacts negatively on its own ing issue with the name for the office, “The Key Issues security. It has tried to facilitate intra-Afghan Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan”, which was One key issue is how the Council and reconciliation, while noting the importance the official title of the 1996-2001 Taliban-led UNAMA can support the reconciliation pro- of promoting security along its border with government that no UN member state cur- cess in Afghanistan. In his 13 June UNAMA Afghanistan. However, it has strongly object- rently recognises. (The sign on the office with report, the Secretary-General noted that ed to accusations that there are terrorist sanc- this name was subsequently removed, and “good offices and political outreach in sup- tuaries within Pakistan from which attacks on Qatar said that the office would be called port of Afghan-led reconciliation and regional Afghanistan are launched with the complicity the “Political Office of the Afghan Taliban”.) processes” are among UNAMA’s “core tasks” of some elements of the Pakistani state. Nonetheless, as a sign of his displeasure, Kar- (S/2013/350). Russia is generally concerned with the zai suspended scheduled bilateral talks with Also a key issue is how the Council and regional threat posed by instability in Afghani- the US on the role of US troops in Afghani- UNAMA can most effectively assist the gov- stan, including the spill-over effects of terrorism stan after 2014. In late August, media reports ernment in preparing for the 2014 presiden- and drug trafficking. It has expressed concern indicated that bilateral talks on a post-2014 tial and provincial elections. with what it views as the inadequate capacity security deal had resumed. While not directly linked to UNAMA’s of the Afghan security forces, given the draw- Pakistan and Afghanistan are making efforts mandate, there are several important inter- down of the International Security Assistance to ease strained relations. Pakistan dispatched connected security issues that are likely to be Force (ISAF). At the same time, it has argued Sartaj Aziz, a key advisor to Prime Minister on Council members’ minds. These include that the role of any future NATO presence in Nawaz Sharif on foreign policy and defence how to address the heightened violence Afghanistan must be clearly defined and must issues, to Kabul on 21 July, where he met with against civilians, how well Afghan security be authorised by the Security Council. Karzai and Afghan Foreign Minister Zalmai forces will perform as they assume increasing There has been widespread interest on Rassoul. At a press conference with Rassoul, responsibility for security and what kind of the Council in the preparations for the 2014 Aziz said that Pakistan would try to exert its post-2014 security arrangement will be struck presidential and provincial elections. In this influence to facilitate talks between the Afghan between Afghanistan and the US (assuming sense, several members have been encour- government and the Taliban, but he cautioned the parties can come to an agreement). aged by the recent passage of the structure that Pakistan does not “control” the Taliban. Moving forward, the security environ- law and the more general electoral law. At press time, Karzai was also scheduled to ment also has implications for UNAMA’s Australia is the penholder in the Council visit Pakistan from 26-28 August, to discuss future mandate and, more broadly, for how on Afghanistan. how Pakistan can help support intra-Afghan UNAMA cooperates with other UN entities reconciliation among other issues. operating in the country.

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast September 2013 securitycouncilreport.org 19 Notable Dates for September Security Council Report Staff Bruno Stagno REPORT DUE REPORTS FOR CONSIDERATION IN REQUESTING DOCUMENT Executive Director SEPTEMBER Joanna Weschler Deputy Executive Director & 15 August SG report on UNMIL (Liberia) S/RES/2066 Director of Research

22 August SG report on Guinea-Bissau (2048) S/RES/2103 Amanda Roberts Coordinating Editor & Senior Research Analyst 3 September SG report on UNSOM (Somalia) S/RES/2102 Shamala Kandiah Thompson What’s in Blue Editor & Senior 9 September SG report on UNSMIL (Libya) S/RES/2095 Research Analyst

11 September SG report on UNAMA (Afghanistan) S/RES/2096 Astrid Forberg Ryan Senior Research Analyst & Development Officer 12 September SG report on UNDOF (Golan Heights) S/RES/2108 Victor Casanova Abos Research Analyst 12 September SG report on UNIPSIL (Sierra Leone) S/RES/2097 Charles Cater MANDATES EXPIRE RELEVANT DOCUMENT Research Analyst Paul Romita 30 September UNMIL (Liberia) S/RES/2066 Research Analyst

Eran Sthoeger OTHER IMPORTANT DATES Research Analyst

16 September The International Donor Conference, “A New Deal for Somalia”, is to be held in Brussels. Robbin VanNewkirk Publications Coordinator

17 September The 68th Session of the General Assembly will open. Dahlia Morched Research Assistant

26 September The Council will hold a high-level meeting on Small Arms at the initiative of Australia, the Laura Coquard-Wallace President of the Council in September. Research Assistant

Maritza Tenerelli 27 September A high-level briefing on Yemen is scheduled for the Council. Administrative Assistant

Lindiwe Knutson Research Intern

Stevenson Swanson Editorial Consultant

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20 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast September 2013