September 2013 Monthly Forecast 2 In Hindsight: Overview Penholders 3 Status Update since our August Forecast Australia will preside over the Security Council Assistance Mission in Somalia, most likely by 4 Small Arms in September. its head and Special Representative of the Sec- A debate on small arms is planned during the retary-General Nicholas Kay and AU Special 6 Central African Republic high-level week of the General Assembly. The Representative Mahamat Saleh Annadif (both Prime Minister of Australia may preside with likely to brief by videoconferencing). 7 Liberia other members likely to be represented at min- Briefings in consultations are likely on: 8 Sierra Leone isterial or higher levels. The Secretary-General is • current issues of concern, under the “horizon 10 Guinea-Bissau expected to brief and a resolution is the expected scanning” formula, by a top official from the 11 Libya outcome. Department of Political Affairs; 12 South Sudan and The quarterly debate on the situation in • Sudan and South Sudan issues, twice, on at Sudan Afghanistan is also expected, with Ján Kubiš, the least one of these occasions most likely by Special Representative of the Secretary-Gen- Special Envoy of the Secretary-General Haile 14 Somalia eral and head of the UN Assistance Mission in Menkerios; 16 Yemen Afghanistan, likely to brief. • Guinea-Bissau, by the Secretary-General’s 17 UNDOF (Golan Heights) A briefing onYemen is expected by the Sec- Special Representative and head of the UN 18 Afghanistan retary-General’s Special Advisor, Jamal Beno- Integrated Peacebuilding Office in Guinea- 20 Notable Dates mar, as well as the Secretary-General of the Gulf Bissau, José Ramos-Horta; Cooperation Council, Abdullatif bin Rashid Al- • the Secretary-General’s report on the UN Zayani, and a senior representative of Yemen. Disengagement Observer Force in the Golan Briefings, followed by consultations, are likely Heights, most likely by Under-Secretary-Gen- on: eral for Peacekeeping Operations Hervé Lad- • Liberia by Karin Landgren, the Secretary- sous; and General’s Special Representative and head • the work of the 1737 Iran Sanctions Com- of the UN Mission in Liberia (UNMIL) and mittee by its chair, Ambassador Gary Quinlan Ambassador Staffan Tillander (Sweden), chair (Australia). of the Liberia configuration of the Peacebuild- Additionally, formal sessions will be needed to ing Commission (PBC); adopt resolutions: • the Middle East, by Special Coordinator for • modifying the mandate of the UN Integrated the Middle East Peace Process Robert Serry; Peacebuilding Office in the Central African • Sierra Leone, by Jens Anders Toyberg-Fran- Republic (discussions of which have started dzen, the Executive Representative of the Sec- in August); and retary-General and head of the UN Integrated • renewing the mandate of UNMIL. Peacebuilding Office in Sierra Leone and by Throughout the month, Council members the chair of the Sierra Leone configuration of will be following closely the developments in the the PBC, Ambassador Guillermo Rishchynski Democratic Republic of the Congo, Mali and Syr- (Canada); ia, and meetings on these issues may be scheduled. • Libya by Tarek Mitri, the Special Representa- Council members will also likely be working tive of the Secretary-General and head of the on finalising the Council’sannual report to the UN Support Mission in Libya; General Assembly, drafted this year by the US. 29 August 2013 • the work of the 1970 Libya Sanctions Com- Several high-level events on issues of concern This report is available online at securitycouncilreport.org. mittee, by its chair, Ambassador Eugène-Rich- to the Security Council are expected in Septem- ard Gasana (Rwanda); and ber on the margins of the General Assembly.• For daily insights by SCR on evolving Security Council actions please • the Secretary-General’s report on the UN subscribe to our “What’s In Blue” series at whatsinblue.org or follow @SCRtweets on Twitter. Security Council Report Monthly Forecast September 2013 securitycouncilreport.org 1 In Hindsight: Penholders Penholder is a relatively new term in the on East Timor) or had kept their involvement situations on the agenda among themselves, Council vocabulary that started to appear in beyond their stay on the Council (for exam- assuming in each case the role nicknamed Council-related exchanges probably some ple, Canada with respect to Haiti). penholder. These arrangements have been four or five years ago. But, in principle, the The system of Groups of Friends, while informal and unwritten but, given the per- concept is not new. Ever since the end of generally efficient, garnered increasing criti- manent positions of these nations, this lead- the Cold War, when a previously paralysed cism within the Council from both perma- ership essentially remains unchanged. Council saw a dramatic increase in activity, nent and elected members, although for Our research identified over 40 penholder the Council has experimented with different different reasons. Some permanent mem- arrangements as of early 2013 (please see our ways to address the division of labour. It has bers considered the lead role of configura- February 2013 Monthly Forecast) with over developed a number of practices and working tions other than those involving the P5 as 30 split more or less equally between the P3, methods reflecting the increased cooperation potentially undermining their authority. A Russia leading on a couple of issues and the to tackle the growing workload. particularly sensitive aspect was the fact that rest, mainly thematic issues, led by elected Drafting resolutions and chairing the several Groups of Friends included non- members. subsequent negotiations has been one of the Council members and thus they had been Although this system may seem logical key chores (the number of resolutions went part of the early stage of drafting while some in terms of efficiency, a side-effect of the from 20 in 1988 to 93 in 1993; more recent- Council members were excluded from the penholder system has been a deepening gap ly, during the five years from 2008 through decision-making process until much later. between the permanent and elected mem- 2012, the average annual number of resolu- That is because Groups of Friends tended bers. The P3 usually agree upon a given draft tions has been 58). In the early to mid-1990s, to keep the drafting process away from the among themselves and then negotiate it with the drafting of resolutions would often be full Council until shortly before the vote. A China and Russia. The agreed text is then undertaken by whichever member took the February 1999 Note by the President said: circulated to the elected members, usually initiative to produce the text. Specific, recur- “It is important that all members of the Secu- quite close to the adoption date. The elected ring topics did not “belong” to a particular rity Council be allowed to participate fully members are often discouraged from making Council member. Sometimes, members with in the preparation of the resolutions of the amendments because this might disturb the an interest in a given situation would join Council and statements by the President of sometimes painstakingly achieved consensus forces or, on some occasions, would compete the Council. Contributions by members of among the P5. to produce a draft first in order to then chair groups of friends and other similar arrange- The penholder is seen by all members, the negotiations. Both permanent and elect- ments… are welcome…While the need is rec- permanent and elected, as the leader on an ed members routinely undertook the drafting. ognized for the Council, in many instances, issue as it takes the initiative on all matters With the increased number of crisis situations to adopt its decisions expeditiously, sufficient related to that situation (even in the cases on the Council agenda, a more structured time should be allowed for consultations of where there is a subsidiary body on that division of labour seemed necessary, and a all members of the Council and for their own country chaired by an elected member). This system of Groups of Friends emerged within consideration of the drafts, prior to action by in turn creates a situation of default where the Council. Starting around 1990, Groups the Council on specific items” (S/1999/165). the other members defer to the penholder. of Friends had initially been used by the Some Groups of Friends still exist If a crisis arises and the penholder is either Secretary-General, who would enlist a set (including on Bosnia, Haiti, Kosovo and unwilling or unable (for example, because it of interested states, often for a range of rea- Western Sahara), but in mid-2000 the Coun- is already managing one or two other crises) sons, in a particular conflict to assist his good cil began organising its work on particular to take the initiative, the Council may seem offices efforts. At the Council, members with situations around a lead country. Initially, paralysed or act with what is perceived as stakes in an issue, or a particular commit- those arrangements were fairly temporary considerable delay. ment to, would come together to draft resolu- and changeable and lead nations were both At the moment, attempts to modify this tions on that issue with both elected and per- elected and permanent members (for exam- system have been unsuccessful. In 2012 manent members playing a leadership role ple Belgium led on Ethiopia/Eritrea in 2007 Portugal, then chair of the subsidiary body (for example, Canada on Haiti or Norway on and 2008; Panama and Costa Rica co-led on dealing with Council working methods, cir- the Horn of Africa). These groups further- Haiti in 2008 and Costa Rica led on Haiti culated a draft presidential note outlining more often included non-Council members in 2009). a system under which all members would that had particular expertise, specific com- Starting around 2008, however, a new sys- have an opportunity to be penholders or co- mitments or stakes in the situations (such as tem seems to have emerged.