Introduction

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Notes

Introduction

1. About twenty-five percent of the budget is officially spent on the security apparatus but, as is discussed in Chapter 3, it is likely to be significantly more than this. 2. Thomas Carothers,“The End of the Transitions Paradigm,” Journal of Democracy 13 (January 1, 2002). 3. Samuel Huntington, The Third Wave: Democratization in the Late Twentieth Century (Norman: University of Oklahoma Press, 1991), p. 137. 4. Carothers, “End of the Transitions Paradigm,” 9 and 13. See also Daniel Brumberg, “The Trap of Liberalized Autocracy,” Journal of Democracy, 13, no. 4 (2002): 56–68. 5. James Piscatori, Islam, Islamists, and the Electoral Principle in the Middle East (Leiden: ISIM, 2000). Available online at http://www.isim.nl/files/paper_ piscatori.pdf, p. 45. 6. Ibid., pp. 23 and 25. 7. Daniel Brumberg, Liberalization Versus Democracy: Understanding Arab Political Reform, (working paper, no. 37, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Washington, DC, May 2003), pp. 4–7. 8. Marsha Pripstein Posusney, “The Middle East’s Democracy Deficit in Comparative Perspective,” in Authoritarianism in the Middle East, ed. Marsha Pripstein Posusney and Michele Penner Angrist (Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner, 2005), p. 17, footnote 20. She is speaking of the region more generally and does not refer to Yemen specifically in this regard. 9. Marsha Pripstein Posusney, “Multiparty Elections in the Arab World: Election Rules and Opposition Responses,” in Authoritarianism in the Middle East,ed. Marsha Pripstein Posusney and Michele Penner Angrist (Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner, 2005), p. 93. 10. Michael Bratton and Nicolas Van de Walle, “Neopatrimonial Regimes and Political Transitions in Africa,” World Politics 46, no. 4 (July 1994): 459. 11. Ibid. 12. This paragraph draws from an unpublished paper written with Murad Zafir for Yemen’s National Democratic Institute about the constraints on Yemen’s opposition parties: Sarah Phillips and Murad Zafir, “Baseline Assessment of the Joint Meeting Parties (JMP) Coalition in Yemen,” unpublished, 2007. 176 NOTES

13. James A. Bill and Robert Springborg, Politics in the Middle East, 4th ed. (New York: HarperCollins, 1994), pp. 166–67. 14. Joel Migdal, Strong Societies and Weak States: State-Society Relations and State Capabilities in the Third World (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1988) pp. 206–37. 15. Ibid., p. 210. 16. Ibid., p. 236. 17. Omar Daair, “He Who Rides the Lion. Authoritarian Rule in a Plural Society: The Republic of Yemen,” (MSc diss., University of London, 2001). Available online at http://www.al-bab.com/Yemen/pol/daair1.htm. 18. Ibid. 19. Joseph S. Nye Jr., The Paradox of American Power: Why the World’s Only Superpower Can’t Go it Alone (New York: Oxford University Press, 2002), p. 9. 20. William Zartman refers to this as complementarity in “Opposition as Support of the State,” in Beyond Coercion: The Durability of the Arab State, ed. Adeed Dawisha and William Zartman, vol. 3 (London, New York: Croom Helm, 1988), pp. 61–87. This is discussed in greater detail in Chapter Five. 21. Marina Ottaway, Democracy Challenged: The Rise of Semi-Authoritarianism (Washington D.C.: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2003), p. 146.

Chapter 1

1. Daniel Williams, “New Vehicle for Dissent Is a Fast Track to Prison: Bloggers Held under Egypt’s Emergency Laws,” Washington Post, May 31, 2006. Williams is quoting from an interview President Mubarak gave to Egypt’s state-owned newspaper al-Gomhoreya. 2. Ibid. 3. Some of the most prominent texts in this field include: Philippe C. Schmitter and Laurence Whitehead, eds., Transitions from Authoritarian Rule, 4vols. (Baltimore, MD: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1986); Adam Przeworski, Democracy and the Market: Political and Economic Reforms in Eastern Europe and Latin America (Cambridge and New York: Cambridge University Press, 1991); and Scott Mainwaring, Guillermo O’Donnell, and J. Samuel Valenzuela, eds., Issues in Democratic Consolidation: The New South American Democracies in Comparative Perspective (Notre Dame, IN: University of Notre Dame Press, 1992). 4. See, for example, Daniel Lerner, The Passing of Traditional Society: Modernizing the Middle East (London: Glencoe, Collier, Macmillan, 1958); Gabriel Almond and James S. Coleman, eds., The Politics of the Developing Areas (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1960); Seymour Martin Lipset, Political Man (London: Heinemann, 1960); Karl Deutsch, “Social Mobilization and Political Participation,” in Political Development and Social Change, ed. Jason Finkle and Richard Gable (New York: John Wiley, 1966), pp. 384–402. 5. Dankwart Rustow famously advanced this theory in “Transitions to Democracy: Toward a Dynamic Model,” Comparative Politics 2 (April 1970): 337–63. NOTES 177

6. This argument was framed in similar terms in James Piscatori, Islam, Islamists, and the Electoral Principle in the Middle East (Leiden: ISIM, 2000). Available online at http://www.isim.nl/files/paper_piscatori.pdf, p. 11. 7. The list of such texts exploring the possibilities of democracy emerging in the Arab Middle East in the 1990s is long. Some prominent examples include: Abdo Baaklini, Guilain Denoeux, and Robert Springborg, Legislative Politics in the Arab World: The Resurgence of Democratic Institutions (Boulder, CO, and London: Lynne Rienner Publishers, 1999); Rex Brynen, Bahgat Korany, and Paul Noble, eds., Political Liberalization and Democratization in the Arab World: Theoretical Perspectives, vol. 1 (Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner Publishers, 1995); Rex Brynen, Bahgat Korany, and Paul Noble, eds., Political Liberalization and Democratization in the Arab World: Comparative Experiences, vol. 2 (Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner Publishers, 1998); Sheila Carapico, Civil Society in Yemen: The Political Economy of Activism in Modern Arabia (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1998); John Waterbury, “Fortuitous By-Products,” Comparative Politics 29, no. 3 (April 1997): 383–402; and Augustus Richard Norton, ed., Civil Society in the Middle East, 2vols. (Leiden: E. J. Brill, 1995–96). 8. See, for example Michael C. Hudson, “After the Gulf War: Prospects for Democratization in the Arab World,” Middle East Journal 45, no. 3 (1991): 407–8; Heather Deegan,“Democratization in the Middle East,”in The Middle East in the New World Order, ed. Haifaa A. Jawad, 2nd ed.(Hampshire and London: Macmillan, 1997), pp. 15–34. 9. Amr Hamzawy, Arab Political Reality: One Lens is not Enough (Policy Outlook, Washington, D.C.: Democracy and Rule of Law Project, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, March 2005). Available online at http://carnegieendowment.org/files/PO15.hamzawy.FINAL.pdf. 10. For an earlier analysis of this debate regarding democracy, see David Collier and Steven Levitsky, “Democracy with Adjectives: Conceptual Innovation in Comparative Research,” World Politics 49, no. 3 (1997): 430–51. 11. Some other noteworthy examples of this critique include: Adeed Dawisha and William Zartman, eds., Beyond Coercion: The Durability of the Arab State (London and New York: Croom Helm, 1988); Oliver Schlumberger “The Arab Middle East and the Question of Democratization: Some Critical Remarks,” Democratization 7, no. 4 (2000): 104–32; Marina Ottaway, Democracy Challenged: The Rise of Semi-Authoritarianism (Washington, DC: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2003); and Marsha Pripstein Posusney and Michele Penner Angrist, eds., Authoritarianism in the Middle East: Regimes and Resistance (Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner, 2005). For a theoretical treatment that is not directly related to the Middle East, see Andreas Schedler, ed., Electoral Authoritarianism: The Dynamics of Unfree Competition (Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner, 2006). 12. Carapico, Civil Society in Yemen, pp. 210–11. 13. Theodore Nkwenti, “Yemen Enacts New Law Governing Associations and Foundations,” International Journal of Not-For-Profit Law 3, no. 3 (2001). Available at http://www.icnl.org/JOURNAL/vol3iss3/cr_nafrica.htm. 178 NOTES

14. Marina Ottaway, “Evaluating Middle East Reform: How Do We Know When It Is Significant?” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace: Democracy and Rule of Law Project 56 (February 2005): 6. 15. Ibid. 16. Baaklini, Denoeux, and Springborg, Legislative Politics in the Arab World. 17. Daniel Brumberg, “Liberalization Versus Democracy: Understanding Arab Political Reform” (working paper, 37, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Washington, DC, May 2003), 8. 18. Ibid., 7. 19. Ferenc Miszlivetz and Jody Jensen, “An Emerging Paradox: Civil Society from Above?” in Participation and Democracy East and West: Comparisons and Interpretations, ed. Dietrich Rueschemeyer, Marylin Rueschemeyer, and Bjorn Wittrock (New York: M. E. Sharpe, 1998), pp. 84–85. 20. Frances Hagopian, “After Regime Change: Authoritarian Legacies, Political Representation, and the Democratic Future of South America,” World Politics 45, no. 3 (1993): 474. 21. Quintan Wiktorowicz, “Embedded Authoritarianism: Bureaucratic Power and the Limits to Non-Governmental Organisations in Jordan,” in Jordan in Transition: 1990–2000, ed. George Joffé (New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2002), pp. 110–26. 22. Thomas Carothers, “The End of the Transitions Paradigm,” Journal of Democracy 13, no. 1 (January 2002): 10. 23. It is important to note, however, that despite Carothers’ accusation of such assumptions (Ibid.), many associated with the transitions school have also explicitly denied the idea of a linear model. See Schmitter and Whitehead, Transitions from Authoritarian Rule, pp. 9–10. 24. Ottaway, “Evaluating Middle East Reform.” 25. Rex Brynen, Bahgat Korany, and Paul Noble, “Introduction: Theoretical Per- spectives on Arab Liberalization and Democratization,” in Brynen, Korany, and Noble, Political Liberalization and Democratization,p.3. 26. Daniel Brumberg,“Beyond Liberalization,” Wilson Quarterly 28, no. 2 (Spring 2004): 47–55. Available online at http://wwics.si.edu/index.cfm?fuseaction= wq.essay&essay_id=69730. 27. Ibid. 28. Najib Ghadbian, Democratization and the Islamist Challenge in the Arab World (Boulder, CO: Westview Press, 1997), pp. 133–34. 29. Ottaway, “Evaluating Middle East Reform,” 6. 30. Joseph Schumpeter, Capitalism, Socialism and Democracy (New York: Harper, 1947), p. 269. 31. Ibid., p. 295. 32. Samuel Huntington, The Third Wave: Democratization in the Late Twentieth Century (Norman: University of Oklahoma Press, 1991), pp. 266–67. 33. Schirin H. Fathi, Jordan—An Invented Nation? Tribe-State Dynamics and the Formation of National Identity (Hamburg: Deutsches Orient-Institut, 1994), p. 206. NOTES 179

34. See Steven Levitsky and Lucan Way,“Elections Without Democracy: The Rise of Competitive Authoritarianism,” Journal of Democracy 13, no. 2 (April 2002): 51–65. 35. Robert A. Dahl, Polyarchy: Participation and Opposition (New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 1971). 36. Robert A. Dahl, On Democracy (New Haven, CT and London: Yale University Press, 1998), pp. 85–86. 37. Larry Jay Diamond, “Is the Third Wave Over?” Journal of Democracy 7, no. 3 (1996): 23–24. 38. I am grateful to Marc Armansin for suggesting the idea of feedback in this context, and then discussing it with me over many dinners. 39. In this context, instability is a violent attempt to reestablish the prevalence of popular will. 40. Gabriel Almond and Sidney Verba, The Civic Culture (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1963), p. 14. 41. Michael C. Hudson, Arab Politics: The Search for Legitimacy (New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 1977), pp. 85–86. Hudson’s overall argument is more complex than this, however, and he emphasizes that the “autocratic, unstable nature of all present Arab governments” draws more from the unstable political environment than it does from “the superstitions of ‘traditional’ people” (pp. 2–3). 42. Hisham Sharabi, Neopatriarchy: A Theory of Distorted Change in Arab Society (New York: Oxford University Press, 1988), p. 7. 43. Fouad Ajami, The Arab Predicament: Arab Political Thought and Practice Since 1967 (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1981), p. 182. 44. Ajami, Arab Predicament, updated ed. (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1992), p. 26. 45. Jason Brownlee, “Political Crisis and Restablization: Iraq, Libya, Syria, and Tunisia,” in Posusney and Angrist, Authoritarianism in the Middle East,p.60. 46. Adam Garfinkle, “The Impossible Imperative? Conjuring Arab Democracy,” The National Interest (Fall 2002), cited in Gary C. Gambill, “Explaining the Arab Democracy Deficit: Part I,” Middle East Intelligence Bulletin 5, no. 2 (February–March 2003). Available online at http://www.meib.org/articles/ 0302_me.htm. 47. United Nations Development Programme, Arab Human Development Report 2003: Building a Knowledge Society, available online at http://www.sd.undp.org/ HDR/AHDR%202003%20-%20English.pdf, p. 141. 48. Marsha Pripstein Posusney, “The Middle East’s Democracy Deficit in Comparative Perspective,”in Authoritarianism in the Middle East, ed. Marsha Pripstein Posusney and Michele Penner Angrist (Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner, 2005), p. 4. 49. Halim Barakat, The Arab World: Society, Culture, and State (Berkeley: California University Press, 1993), p. 274. 50. Bassam Tibi, “The Simultaneity of the Unsimultaneous: Old Tribes and Imposed Nation-States in the Middle East,”in Tribes and State Formation in the 180 NOTES

Middle East, ed. Philip. S. Khoury and Joseph. Kostiner (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1990), p. 149. 51. Eli Kedourie, Democracy and Arab Political Culture (London: Frank Cass, 1994), pp. 1 and 103. 52. Bernard Lewis, What Went Wrong: The Clash Between Islam and Modernity in the Middle East (London: Weidenfeld and Nicolson, 2002). 53. Huntington, Third Wave, pp. 72–85. 54. Samuel Huntington, The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order (New York: Simon and Schuster, 1996). 55. Samuel Huntington, “The Clash of Civilizations,” Foreign Affairs 72, no. 3 (Summer 1992–93): 40. 56. John Waterbury,“Democracy Without Democrats? The Potential for Political Liberalization in the Middle East,” in Democracy without Democrats: The Renewal of Politics in the Muslim World, ed. Ghassan Salame (London: I. B. Tauris, 1994), p. 45. 57. Robert Bowker, “Analysing the Politics of Contemporary Middle East Islam” (unpublished article, 2003). 58. Each of these examples are cited in Adeed Dawisha,“Arab Regimes: Legitimacy and Foreign Policy,” in Dawisha and Zartman, Beyond Coercion, p. 264. 59. Graham E. Fuller, “Islamists in the Arab World: The Dance Around Democracy,” Carnegie Paper 49 (September 2004): 4. Available online at http://www.carnegieendowment.org/files/cp49_fuller_final.pdf. 60. Ibid. 61. Eva Bellin, “Coercive Institutions and Coercive Leaders,” in Posusney and Angrist, Authoritarianism in the Middle East,p.24. 62. Bowker, “Analysing the Politics of Contemporary Middle East Islam.” 63. Alfred Stepan and Graeme Robertson “An ‘Arab’ More than ‘Muslim’ Electoral Gap,” Journal of Democracy 14, no. 3 (2003): 30–44. 64. Mark Tessler and Eleanor Gao, “Gauging Arab Support for Democracy,” Journal of Democracy 16, no. 3 (2005): 87. 65. Ibid. 66. Ibid., 91. 67. Fares Braizat, “Islam, Muslims and Liberal Democracy: Jordan in a Comparative Perspective” (PhD diss., Kent University, 2003), p. 213. 68. Jordanian Center for Strategic Studies, “Democracy in Jordan,” Poll 33, June 2003. Available online at http://www.css-jordan.org/polls/democracy/2003/ index.html. 69. In 2005, al-Jazeera conducted a survey that asked people if they trusted “Western democracy” to which over 80 percent of the people questioned responded that they did not. See Ramzy Baroud, “The Problem with Western Democracy in the Middle East,” Christian Science Monitor (February 3, 2005). Available online at http://www.csmonitor.com/2005/0203/p09s01-coop. html. 70. Abdullah M. al-Faqih, “The Struggle for Liberalization and Democratization in Egypt, Jordan and Yemen” (PhD diss., Northeastern University, 2003), pp. 25–26 and 244. NOTES 181

71. See Ellen Lust-Okar, “Divided They Rule: The Management and Manipula- tion of Political Opposition,” Comparative Politics 36, no. 2 (January 2004): 159–79. 72. Brumberg, Liberalization Versus Democracy, pp. 4–7. 73. Brumberg, “Beyond Liberalization.” 74. Waterbury, “Democracy without Democrats?” pp. 29–30. 75. Michael Ross, “Does Oil Hinder Democracy?” World Politics 53, no. 3 (2001): 325–61. 76. Larbi Sadiki, “Popular Uprisings and Arab Democratization,” International Journal of Middle East Studies 32 (2000): 84 and 91. 77. Ibid., 84. 78. Ibid., 84–85. 79. Sean Yom, “Civil Society and Democratization in the Arab World,” Middle East Review of International Affairs 9, no. 4 (December 2005): 25. See also Eva Bellin, “The Robustness of Authoritarianism in the Middle East,” Comparative Politics 36, no. 2 (January 2004): 139–57. 80. Mark LeVine,“The UN Arab Human Development Report: A Critique,” Middle East Report Online (July 26, 2002). Available online at http://www.merip.org/ mero/mero072602.html. 81. Bellin, “Coercive Institutions and Coercive Leaders,” p. 31. See also Clement M. Henry and Robert Springborg, Globalization and the Politics of Develop- ment in the Middle East (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2001), pp. 30–38. 82. Bellin, “Coercive Institutions and Coercive Leaders,” pp. 26–27. 83. Ibid., pp. 27–28. 84. In April 2006, the U.S. Government Accountability Office reported that Egypt received nearly this amount again in economic assistance. U.S. Government Accountability Office, Security Assistance: State and DOD Need to Assess How the Foreign Military Financing Program for Egypt Achieves U.S. Foreign Policy and Security Goals, Report to the Committee on International Relations, April 2006, H. Rep. Available online at http://www.gao.gov/new.items/ d06437.pdf. 85. U.S. State Department, Fiscal Year 2001 Budget Request: Summary and Highlights of Accounts by Appropriations Subcommittees, February 7, 2000. Available online at http://www.fas.org/asmp/profiles/aid/fy2001_fmf. htm#FMF. 86. U.S. Government Accountability Office, Security Assistance. 87. Gary C. Gambill, “Explaining the Arab Democracy Deficit, Part II: American Policy,” Middle East Intelligence Bulletin 5, nos.8–9 (August–September 2003). Available online at http://www.meib.org/articles/0308_me1.htm. 88. President George Bush at the 20th Anniversary of the National Endowment for Democracy, United States Chamber of Commerce, Washington, DC, November 6, 2003. Available online at http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/ releases/2003/11/20031106-2.html. 89. Interview with senior government official and advisor to President Saleh, Sana’a, January 2006. 182 NOTES

90. See Eberhard Kienle, “More than a Response to Islamism: The Political Deliberalization of Egypt in the 1990s,” Middle East Journal 52, no. 2 (1998): 219–235. 91. Oliver Schlumberger, “Transition in the Arab World: Guidelines for Comparison” (EUI Working Paper RSC No. 2002/22 (San Domenico: European University Institute, 2002), 4. 92. Carothers, “The End of the Transition Paradigm”; and Daniel Brumberg, “The Trap of Liberalized Autocracy,” Journal of Democracy 13, no. 4 (2002): 56–68. See also Schlumberger, “Arab Middle East and the Question of Democratization,” 123. 93. Schlumberger, “Transition in the Arab World,” 36. 94. A number of scholars suggest this as a minimum period for a transition to democracy, such as Rustow in “Transitions to Democracy,” 347. 95. Schlumberger, “Transition in the Arab World,” 12. 96. Waterbury, “Fortuitous By-Products,” 388. 97. Schlumberger, “Transition in the Arab World,” 13. 98. John Mueller, “Democracy, Capitalism, and the End of Transition,” in Post- Communist Societies, ed. Michael Mandelbaum (New York: Council on Foreign Relations, 1996), p. 104, cited in Ghia Nodia, “The Democratic Path,” Journal of Democracy 13, no. 3 (2002): 15. 99. Samuel Huntington, Political Order in Changing Societies (New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 1968). 100. Rustow, “Transitions to Democracy,” 361. 101. Ibid., 344–45. 102. Diamond, “Is the Third Wave Over?” 24. 103. Ghadbian, Democratization and the Islamist Challenge, p. 6. See also Nazih Ayubi, Over-Stating the Arab State: Politics and Society in the Middle East (London and New York; I. B. Tauris, 1995), pp. 411 and 414. 104. Josep Colomer, Strategic Transitions: Game Theory and Democratization (Baltimore, MD: John Hopkins University Press, 2000), p. 5. 105. Saad Eddin Ibrahim,“Liberalization and Democratization in the Arab World: An Overview,” in Brynen, Korany, and Noble, Political Liberalization and Democratization,p.54. 106. Fouad Ajami, “Iraq and the Arabs’ Future,” Foreign Affairs 82, no. 1 (2003): 2–18. 107. Baaklini, Denoeux, and Springborg, Legislative Politics in the Arab World, pp. 33–34. 108. Ibid., p. 42. 109. Ibid., p. 249.

Chapter 2

1. Jonathan Schanzer,“Sanaa Dispatch: Basket Catch,” New Republic, Washington Institute for Near East Policy, August 21, 2003. Available online at www. washingtoninstitute.org/media/schanzer/schanzer082103.htm. The ubiquitous NOTES 183

figure of 60 million weapons is almost certainly inflated. The 2003 Small Arms Survey found the figure more likely to be between 6 and 9 million—still one of the highest per capita figures in the world; Derek B. Miller, Demand, Stockpiles and Social Controls: Small Arms in Yemen, Small Arms Survey, Occasional Paper No. 9, May 2003. Osama bin Laden’s father was born in Yemen but he spent most of his life in Saudi Arabia, where Osama was born. 2. CIA World Fact Book 2006, s.v.“Yemen.”Available online at http://www.cia.gov/ cia/publications/factbook/geos/sa.html. This figure should be taken as a rough guide only. 3. Census statistics from Saudi Arabia have a reputation of inaccurate inflation. 4. CIA World Fact Book 2006, s.v. “Yemen.” 5. The Economist Intelligence Unit estimates that Yemen’s GDP growth for 2006 will be around the same figure. Economist Intelligence Unit Newswire, Yemen: Country Outlook, January 24, 2006. 6. United States State Department, Yemen: Country Report on Human Rights Practices, Bureau of Democracy, Human Rights and Labor, March 8, 2006. 7. While oil holdings are difficult to quantify absolutely, a number of different reports pointed to 2012 as a likely depletion point. The origin of this figure seems to be the Yemeni Oil Ministry’s September 2004 estimation that the country’s remaining oil reserves amounted to only 1.3 billion barrels. See Srinivasan Thirumalai and Thilakaratna Ranaweera, Coping with Oil Depletion in Yemen: A Quantitative Evaluation, 2005. Available online at http://www.ecomod.net/conferences/middle_east_2005/middle_east_2005_ papers/Thirumalai.doc. 8. Sarah Phillips, “Foreboding About the Future in Yemen,” Middle East Report Online, April 3, 2006, available online at http://www.merip.org/mero/ mero040306.html. 9. These are not exact boundaries. Different authors classify these cutoff points in slightly different places. D. Thomas Gochenour, for example, places Dhamar outside the highland area because it is south of the Yaslah Pass, despite the fact that it is still quite arid, strongly Zaydi, and is organized along tribal lines. D. Thomas Gochenour, “Towards a Sociology of the Islamisation of Yemen,” in Contemporary Yemen: Politics and Historical Background, ed. B. R. Pridham (New York: St. Martin’s Press, 1984), pp. 1–19. Parts of what is referred to in this study as Lower Yemen or the Lowlands are sometimes also referred to as the Southern Highlands (Ibb, and parts of Ta’izz and al-Baydah) as their alti- tude is still higher than that in the former PDRY and the Tihama Plain, which borders the Red Sea. 10. Zaydi Islam is commonly referred to as the “fifth school” of Sunni Islam. See Robert D. Burrowes, Historical Dictionary of Yemen (Lanham, MD and London: Scarecrow Press, 1995), p. 430. 11. Robert D. Burrowes, The Yemen Arab Republic: The Politics of Development, 1962–1986 (Boulder, CO: Westview; London: Croom Helm, 1987), p. 8. 12. Iranian Grand Ayatollah Hussein-Ali Montazeri was quoted by the AKI news agency as saying: “It is not acceptable that the Shiites be persecuted for their faith in a country which defines itself Islamic.” See “Yemen: Iranian Grand 184 NOTES

Ayatollah Defends Yemeni Shiites,” May 18, 2005. Available online at http: //www.adnki.com/index_2Level.php?catϭReligion&loidϭ8.0.168503326& parϭ0. Iraqi Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani reportedly accused Yemen’s government of waging “a kind of war” against Zaydis in Yemen. See Jane Novak, “Ayatollah Sistani and the War in Yemen,” May 2, 2005. Available online at http://www.worldpress.org/Mideast/2083.cfm. Novak incorrectly stated that Yemen’s government is Sunni. 13. Stephen Day discusses the importance of resource location throughout his dissertation, “Power-Sharing and Hegemony: A Case Study of the United Republic of Yemen” (PhD diss., Georgetown University, 2001), pp. 430–33. 14. This paragraph relies heavily on Abd al-Ghani al-Iryani’s insightful, though unpublished, paper, Proposal for Reform in Yemen, 2005. 15. Al-Iryani, ibid. 16. Ibid. 17. According to 2004 figures from the Yemeni Ministry of Oil cited in Denes, “Yemen Special Report,” Petroleum Argus, June 27, 2005,” 7. 18. Their rule extended as far south as the area around the dividing line between the former YAR and PDRY that was drawn up by the British and the Ottomans in 1904. Paul Dresch, A Modern History of Yemen, (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2000) , p. 11. 19. Ahmed A. Saif, A Legislature in Transition: The Yemeni Parliament (Aldershot, UK, and Burlington, VT: Ashgate, 2001), p. 30. 20. William R. Brown, “The Yemeni Dilemma,” Middle East Journal 17, no. 4, (1963): 357. 21. Nineteen forty-seven marked the beginning of the “educational emigrants”— a group of several hundred young men (initially the “Famous Forty”) who were sent from their villages to travel abroad to learn about the outside world. This program was rescinded under Imam Ahmed in 1959. See Robert D. Burrowes, “The Famous Forty and Their Companions: North Yemen’s First- Generation Modernists and Educational Emigrants,” Middle East Journal 59, no. 1 (Winter 2005): 81–97. 22. Sheila Carapico discusses the LDA movement extensively in Chapter 5 of Civil Society in Yemen: The Political Economy of Activism in Modern Arabia (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1998). See also Burrowes, Yemen Arab Republic, chap. 5. See also Sheila Carapico, “The Political Economy of Self-Help: Development Cooperatives in the Yemen Arab Republic” (PhD diss., State University of New York, 1984). 23. Burrowes, Historical Dictionary of Yemen, pp. 216–18. Kiren Aziz Chaudhry says that LDA spending between 1973 and 1980 was more than 300 percent government development project spending. Concerned by the overt inde- pendence of these organizations, the government combined them into the centralized Confederation of Yemeni Cooperatives in 1978. See “The Price of Wealth: Business and State in Labor Remittance and Oil Economies,” International Organization 43, no. 1 (Winter 1989): 133–34. The LDAs were eventually marginalized through this process. See also Sharon Beatty, Ahmed No’man al-Madhaji, and Renaud Detalle, Yemeni NGOs and Quasi NGOs, NOTES 185

Analysis and Directory. Part 1: Analysis (Sana’a, Republic of Yemen, no publisher listed, May 1996), p. 20. 24. Interview with a former member of President al-Hamdi’s cabinet, Sana’a, September 2004. 25. Interview with a member of the Majlis al-Shura, Sana’a, April 2004. 26. Burrowes, Historical Dictionary of Yemen, p. 389. 27. Saif, Legislature in Transition, pp. 50–51. 28. Dresch, Modern History, p.122. 29. Michael C Hudson, Arab Politics: The Search for Legitimacy (New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 1977), p. 356. 30. Ibid., pp. 356–57. 31. The opening sentence of the PDRY’s 1970 constitution was: “Believing in the unity of the Yemen, and the unity of the destiny of the Yemeni people in the territory,” cited in Hudson, Arab Politics, p. 357. 32. John Ishiyama, “The Sickle and the Minaret: Communist Successor Parties in Yemen and Afghanistan after the Cold War,” Middle East Review of International Affairs 9, no. 1 (March 2005): 10. 33. Ibid., 11. 34. Ibid., 14. 35. Dresch, Modern History, p. 169. 36. Ibid., p. 172. 37. Rafiq Latta, Yemen: Unification and Modernisation (London: Gulf Centre for Strategic Studies, 1994), p. 41. 38. Abdullah al-Faqih, “Yemen Between National Consensus or War,” Yemen Mirror May 18, 2006. Available online at http://www.yemenmirror.com/ index.php?actionϭshowDetails&idϭ19. 39. Al-Wasat,“Meeting between [the president and] all parties individually,”no. 55, June 8, 2005. Available online at http://www.alwasat-ye.net/modules.php? nameϭNews&fileϭarticle&sidϭ736. For local commentary on the rising levels of Southern anger, see Sami Ghaleb Abdullah, “Internal Developments in Yemen,”in Gulf Year Book, 2005–2006 (Dubai: Gulf Research Center, 2006), pp. 371–78. 40. Sheila Carapico, “Arabia Incognita: An Invitation to Arabian Peninsula Studies,” in Counter-Narratives: History, Contemporary Society, and Politics in Saudi Arabia and Yemen, ed. Madawi al-Rasheed and Robert Vitalis (New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2004), p. 28. 41. Both North and South had held some minor elections prior to unification, in 1988. 42. For more on this debate, see Robert Burrowes, “The Republic of Yemen: The Politics of Unification and Civil War, 1989–1995,”in The Middle East Dilemma: The Politics and Economics of Arab Integration, ed. Michael Hudson (New York: Columbia University Press, 1998), pp. 187–213; Stephen Day,“Power-Sharing and Hegemony,”pp. 219–57; Brian Whitaker,“National Unity and Democracy in Yemen: A Marriage of Inconvenience,”in Yemen Today: Crisis and Solutions, ed. E. G. H. Joffe, M. J. Hachemi, and E. W. Watkins (London: Caravel Press, 1997), pp. 21–27; Dresch, Modern History, pp. 187–214; and Joseph Kostiner, 186 NOTES

Yemen: The Tortuous Quest for Unity, 1990–94 (London: Royal Institute of International Affairs, 1996). 43. Kiren Aziz Chaudhry, “The Price of Wealth: Economies and Institutions in the Middle East” (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 1997), p. 303. 44. Interview with then YAR minister who requested anonymity and insisted that the YAR had obtained detailed knowledge of the significance of the PDRY’s oil reserves. Sana’a, April 2004. 45. Carapico, Civil Society in Yemen,p.50. 46. These elections were delayed until April 1993. 47. Kostiner, Tortuous Quest,p.68. 48. Cited by Dresch, Modern History, p. 212. 49. Sheila Carapico, “How Yemen’s Ruling Party Secured an Electoral Landslide,” Middle East Report Online, May 16, 2003. Available online at http://www.merip. org/mero/mero051603.html. 50. Carapico, Civil Society in Yemen, p. 138. 51. Burrowes, “Republic of Yemen,” p. 191. 52. This has been a common summation of the law. See Carapico, Civil Society in Yemen, p. 138 and Abdu H. Sharif, “Weak Institutions and Democracy: The Case of the Yemeni Parliament, 1993–1997,” Middle East Policy 9, no. 1 (2002): 84. 53. Law No. 66 (1991), Governing Parties and Political Organizations, Article 8. 54. Carapico, Civil Society in Yemen, p. 139. 55. Sheila Carapico argues this consistently. See, for example Carapico, Civil Society in Yemen; Carapico, “How Yemen’s Ruling Party Secured an Electoral Landslide”; Carapico, “Elections and Mass Politics in Yemen,” Middle East Report 23, no. 6 (November–December 1993): 2–7. See also Iris Glosemeyer, “The First Yemeni Parliamentary Elections in 1993. Practising Democracy,” Orient 34, no. 3. 56. See Ahmed A. Hezam al-Yemeni, The Dynamic of Democratisation—Political Parties in Yemen (Bonn: Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung, 2003), p. 81. 57. Ahmed Abdulkareem Saif, The Yemeni Parliamentary Elections: A Critical Analysis (Dubai: Gulf Research Center, 2004), pp. 29 and 32. 58. Abd al-Aziz al-Saqqaf, “Sigha yamaniyya jadida li al-dimuqratiyya” [A New Yemeni Formula for Democracy], cited in Nazih Ayubi, Over-Stating the Arab State: Politics and Society in the Middle East (London; New York: I. B. Tauris, 1995), p. 432. Most observers would disagree with his characterization of Bakil as “the main tribal confederation” and Hashid as “the second.” While Bakil members outnumber Hashid considerably, Hashid has been the more cohesive and influential of the two since the end of the Northern Civil War in 1970. 59. Al-Yemeni, Dynamic of Democratisation, pp. 25–42. The GPC’s monopoly on the state’s economic resources will be discussed in some detail in chapter 3. 60. Ibid., p. 39. Interviews with various former and current parliamentary members of the GPC confirm the great lengths to which top party officials (including the president) go discourage dissent within the party. 61. Interview with former GPC member of Parliament, Sana’a, June 2004. NOTES 187

62. Holger Albrecht, “The Political Economy of Reform in Yemen: Privatisation, Investment, and the Yemeni Business Climate,” Asien Afrika Lateinamerika 30 (2002): 143. 63. Al-Yemeni, Dynamic of Democratisation,p.50. 64. Jillian Schwedler, “Islam, Democracy and the Yemeni State” (paper presented at the Conference on “Islam, Democracy and the Secular State in the Post- Modern Era,” Georgetown University, April 7, 2001), p. 26. 65. Saif, Legislature in Transition,p.85. 66. Two of Sheikh Abdullah’s sons hold seats for the Islah party, while another two are members of the GPC. One Islah member of Parliament quipped publicly at a qat chew in 2004 that this fact underlined how democratic Sheikh Abdullah is. 67. See interview with the former Yemeni ambassador to the UN Abdallah al- Ashtal, “Eventually there can only be an Arab Solution,” Middle East Report 169 (March–April 1991): 8–10. While advocating an “Arab solution,” Yemen maintained that it was opposed to the invasion of Kuwait. This was widely questioned at the time. 68. Secretary of State James A. Baker III famously told the Yemeni ambassador that he had just made “the most expensive ‘no’ vote you will ever cast” at the vote on UNSCR 678 on November 29, 1990. 69. Kostiner, Tortuous Quest, pp. 106–08. 70. Day, “Power-Sharing and Hegemony,” 289. 71. Kostiner, Tortuous Quest,p.55. 72. Based on figures given in Saif, Yemeni Parliamentary Elections, p. 23. In 1993, there were 6,282,939 eligible voters and 2,271,185 votes cast. In 1997, there were 6,976,040 eligible voters and 2,827,369 votes cast. In 2003, there were 8,097,000 eligible voters and 4,294,631 votes cast. It must be emphasized again, however, that Yemeni electoral statistics are best seen as indicative only as each election has been hampered by significant violations, both before and after votes have been cast. 73. United Nations National Human Development Report Project, Yemen: Human Development Report 2000/2001, p. 100. Available online at http://www.undp. org.ye/nhdr.htm. 74. Kostiner, Tortuous Quest,p.64. 75. Carapico, Civil Society in Yemen, p. 175. 76. Ibid., p. 180. 77. Ibid., p. 184. 78. Day, “Power-Sharing and Hegemony,” 313–22. 79. A quick walk through the Military Museum in Sana’a demonstrates the ongo- ing sensitivities surrounding the civil war for the Saleh regime. In the room dedicated to the 1994 war, the largely apolitical depictions of conflicts prior to unification are discarded in favor of graphic photographs of charred bodies—the victims of a war perpetrated by Southern “conspirators” and “traitors” against the Northern “forces of legitimacy.” 80. Stephen Day claims that “the YSP could still claim to represent the entire southern half of the country.” Other observers claim, however, that this was 188 NOTES

due more to systematic electoral manipulation by the YSP in the former South during the 1993 elections, than it was to genuine support for the YSP. See Saad al-Deen Ali Talib, who claims: “The YSP was guaranteed no competition from GPC and a free hand in the supervision and execution of the elections in the southern governorates’ fifty-seven constituencies…[the YSP’s] disappointment was the very few constituencies they were able to win in the north, where they were allowed to compete freely.” Saad al-Deen Ali Talib, A Decade of Pluralist Democracy in Yemen: The Yemeni Parliament after Unification (1990–2003) (paper presented at the Second Annual Conference of Parliamentary Program, “Parliamentary Reform in New Democracies,” Cairo University, Cairo, Egypt, July 15–17, 2003). 81. Day, “Power-Sharing and Hegemony,” 353–54. 82. Ibid., 352. 83. Fred Halliday, “The Third Inter-Yemeni War and its Consequences,” Asian Affairs 26 (June 1995): 138. 84. Interview with a businessman who was asked at the time by Canadian Oxy to help negotiate with the government on this matter, Sana’a, May 2005. Written documentation of this claim was not available during fieldwork but the same source gave confirmable information on other issues. Paul Dresch also refers briefly to the oil payments at this time: “Oil and gas revenue itself was a bone of contention…Southern revenues for a time…were paid directly to Aden.” Dresch, Modern History, p. 194. 85. A string of assassination attempts (between 150 and 200) befell the YSP leadership and members in the lead-up to the civil war. 86. Omar al-Jawi,“We Are the Opposition…but…” in Yemen Today, ed. E. G. H. Joffe, M. J. Hachemi, and E. W. Watkins, p. 83. 87. Saif, Legislature in Transition, p. 75. 88. Sharif, “Weak Institutions and Democracy,” p. 84–85. 89. Abdullah M. al-Faqih, “The Struggle for Liberalization and Democratization in Egypt, Jordan and Yemen” (PhD diss., Northeastern University, 2003), p. 220. 90. Robert D. Burrowes, “Yemen: Political Economy and the Effort Against Terrorism,” in Battling Terrorism in the Horn of Africa, ed. Robert I. Rotberg (Washington, D.C.: Brookings Institution Press, 2005), p. 151. 91. Ibid., pp. 151–52. 92. Charles Schmitz, “Transnational Yemen: Global Power and Political Identity in Peripheral States,” Arab World Geographer 6, no. 3 (2003): 155. 93. The number of seats that the GPC won varies slightly between the different reports because of the ambiguous nature of the affiliations of some of the independent candidates. The National Democratic Institution says it won 240 seats, National Democratic Institute For International Affairs, The April 27, 2003 Parliamentary Elections in the Republic of Yemen. Available online at http: //www.ndi.org/worldwide/mena/yemen/yemen.asp. The figure of 229 is from the Supreme Commission for Elections and Referendum, The 2003 Parlia- mentary Elections: Electoral Documents, Results and Records (Sana’a: Supreme Commission for Elections and Referendum, December 2004, in Arabic). NOTES 189

94. Quoted by Brian Whitaker, “Salih Wins Again,” Middle East International, May 2, 2003. Available online at http://www.al-bab.com/yemen/artic/ mei92.htm. 95. Carapico, “How Yemen’s Ruling Party Secured an Electoral Landslide.” 96. Omar Daair, “He Who Rides the Lion. Authoritarian Rule in a Plural Society: The Republic of Yemen” (MSc diss., University of London, 2001). Available online at http://www.al-bab.com/Yemen/pol/daair1.htm accessed November 11, 2005. Saleh’s “competitor” also used the fight against the use of qat as one of campaign themes, further cementing his detachment from voters. 97. Lisa Wedeen, “Seeing Like a Citizen, Acting Like a State: Exemplary Events in Unified Yemen,” in Counter-Narratives: History, Contemporary Society, and Politics in Saudi Arabia and Yemen, ed. Madawi al-Rasheed and Robert Vitalis (New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2004), p. 257. 98. Discussions with several electoral observers, in Sana’a between June and September 2004. Lisa Wedeen suggests that only around 30 percent of registered voters actually voted. See Wedeen, “Seeing Like a Citizen,” p. 252. A member of al-Sha’abi’s campaign claims that figures of between 10 and 15 percent were common for his candidate. Interview, Sana’a, June 2004. Of the five governorates (from a total of 20) that officially registered more than 10 percent of the vote for al-Sha’abi, all are in the former South. Supreme Com- mission for Elections and Referendum, Final Results for the 1999 Presidential Elections, September 23, 1999 (in Arabic). Available from the Commission’s Head Office in Sana’a, Yemen. 99. Discussions with several electoral observers in Sana’a between June and September 2004. 100. Mohammed al-Qadhi, “Will the Opposition Challenge Saleh Next Year?” Yemen Times, June 20, 2005. 101. 2001 Constitutional Amendment, (Article 100), available online at http://www.al-bab.com/yemen/gov/amend00.htm. 102. “Saleh accuses opposition of plotting to take over power,” Yemen Times, May 31, 2004. 103. European Union Election Observation Mission, Republic of Yemen: Presidential and Local Elections—September 20, 2006, Preliminary Statement, Sana’a, September 21, 2006. 104. There were, however, more countries surveyed in 2004 than in 2003. Trans- parency International, Corruption Perceptions Index 2004, available online at http://www.transparency.org/cpi/2004/cpi2004.en.html#cpi2004. 105. The World Bank Group, Governance Research Indicator Country Snapshot Comparison within Yemen for all Six Governance Indicators, May 2005, available online at http://info.worldbank.org/governance/kkz2004/sc_chart.asp. 106. Conversation with two midlevel managers in government offices, Sana’a, November 27, 2004. 107. Interview with a tribal ally of President Saleh, Sana’a, December 2004. 108. It was estimated in 2005 that 27 percent of Yemeni families lived in severe (that is, nutritional) poverty and that 47 percent lived in absolute poverty. IDEA, Building Democracy in Yemen,p.44. 190 NOTES

109. “Robert Hindle, WB Country Manager Gives His Perspective before Leaving Yemen: World Bank Demands More Reform,” Yemen Times, September 16, 2004. 110. While estimates vary as to what the exact date will be, the Economist Intelligence Unit observed in 2006 that “most industry insiders agree that 2003 will stand as the peak of Yemen’s oil output and that the industry is now in terminal decline…It is generally agreed that the country’s oil will have run dry well before 2020.” Yemen Country Profile 2006/2007, report summary available online at http://store.eiu.com/index.asp?layoutϭshow_sample& product_idϭ60000206&country_idϭYE. 111. Yemen Times, “Yemen Can’t Depend on Oil: study,” January 13, 2005. 112. Yemen Times, “Foreign Investment in Yemen Declines,” April 4, 2006. 113. Economist Intelligence Unit, Country Profile 2006/2007. 114. Ibid. 115. Ibid. 116. Burrowes,“Yemen: Political Economy and the Effort Against Terrorism,”p. 163. 117. Yemen Times, “U.S. Congress commends Yemen’s reform and democratization efforts,” January 20, 2005. 118. Mohammed al-Kibsi, “Bush: Yemen is a Beacon for Reforms in Middle East,” Yemen Observer, May 29, 2005. 119. Burrowes,“Yemen: Political Economy and the Effort against Terrorism,”p. 163. 120. Interview with senior GPC official, Sana’a, January 2006. 121. Private conversation with U.S. diplomat, Sana’a: January 31, 2006. See also Phillips, “Foreboding About the Future in Yemen.” 122. Kevin Whitelaw, “On a Dagger’s Edge,” US News & World Report, March 13, 2006. Available online at http://www.usnews.com/usnews/news/articles/ 060313/13yemen.htm. 123. This is discussed in greater detail in Phillips, “Foreboding About the Future in Yemen.”See also Andrew McGregor,“Stand-Off in Yemen: The Al-Zindani Case,” Terrorism Focus, Jamestown Foundation 3, no. 9, (March 7, 2006). Available online at http://jamestown.org/terrorism/news/article.php?articleidϭ2369917. 124. In one of his bolder declarations, President Saleh said at the conference on Human Rights, Democracy and The International Criminal Court in January 2004, that democracy is a lifeboat for Arab regimes. See Joseph Nasr, “Yemen: Democracy is Life Raft of Arabs,” Jerusalem Post, January 13, 2004. 125. Dar al-Hayat, “Yemen to be a regional center for democratic dialogue in the region,” December 6, 2004. 126. Interview with tribal ally to President Saleh, Sana’a, December 2004. 127. Ibid. 128. Quoted by Brian Whitaker, Yemen Overview 2003–4, 2004. Available online at http://www.al-bab.com/bys/articles/whitaker04.htm.

Chapter 3

1. Jason Brownlee, “Political Crisis and Restablization: Iraq, Libya, Syria, and Tunisia,” in Authoritarianism in the Middle East: Regimes and Resistance, ed. NOTES 191

Marsha Pripstein Posusney and Michele Penner Angrist (Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner, 2005), p. 47. 2. See for example Amy Hawthorne, “Yemen and the Fight Against Terror,” The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, Policy Watch 572, October 11, 2001. 3. Interview with an associate of a recently released political detainee, Sana’a, June 2005. See also Economist Intelligence Unit, Yemen Country Profile 2001/ 2002, report summary available at http://store.eiu.com/index.asp?layoutϭ show_sample&product_idϭ30000203&country_idϭYE. 4. Based on the author’s observations over a period of thirteen months from an unscientifically selected random sample group. 5. Interview with a personal associate of President Saleh who requested anonymity, Sana’a, December 2004. 6. Ibid. 7. Interview with two Southern journalists, Aden, July 2005. Tribal irregulars also benefited greatly from the desecration of the Southern army following the civil war carrying off much of its military hardware. Richard I. Lawless, “Yemen: History,” in Regional Surveys of The World: The Middle East and North Africa 2005, 51st ed. (London and New York: Europa Publications, 2005), p. 1246. 8. F. Gregory Gause says that this was also the case in the YAR prior to unification in F. Gregory Gause III, Saudi-Yemeni Relations: Domestic Structures and Foreign Influence (New York: Columbia University Press, 1990), p. 25. 9. “Parliament and Cabinet: Tension Accumulates,” Yemen Times, September 19, 2005. 10. This figure was commonly mentioned in interviews by a variety of politicians and political observers. 11. Saif al-Asaly, “The Political Economy of Economic Growth Policies” (report, Sana’a University, no date given, probably written in late 2002 or early 2003 judging from the other works cited in the text), p. 17. Available online at http: //www.gdnet.org/pdf2/gdn_library/global_research_projects/explaining_growth/ Yemen_final.pdf. 12. Yemeni Ministry of Finance, Hisaab Khitaami: Mawaazanah al-Sultah al- Markaziah (Final Accounts: Budget of the Central Authority, 2002) in Arabic, pp. 391–93. 13. Sami Ghaleb Abdullah, “Internal Developments in Yemen,” in Gulf Year Book, 2005–2006 (Dubai: Gulf Research Center, 2006), p. 376. See also Mohammed al-Qadhi, “Investing in Military Versus Development,” Yemen Times,October 24, 2005. 14. Based on figures presented in Federation of American Scientists, “Military Expenditures, Armed Forces, GNP, CGE, Population and their Ratios, By Group and Country 1989–1999,” available online at http://www.fas.org/man/ docs/wmeat9900/table1.pdf. This table lists Yemen as having spent US$374 million on its military (20.9 percent of spending—which is not accurate). MoF figures from that year show that the government (officially) spent more than this, at US$434 million. See Yemeni Ministry of Finance, Bulletin of Government Finance Statistics (quarterly bulletin issued by the MoF), no. 19, 1st quarter 2005, p. 75. 192 NOTES

15. Interview with a senior GPC official, Sana’a, January 2006. 16. For background on this uprising see: Sarah Phillips, “Yemen: Economic and Political Deterioration,” Arab Reform Bulletin 3, no. 7 (September 2005); Sarah Phillips, “Cracks in the Yemeni System,” Middle East Report Online, July 28, 2005. Available online at http://www.merip.org/mero/mero072805.html (accessed September 8, 2005); and Iris Glosemeyer, “Local Conflict, Global Spin: An Uprising in the Yemeni Highlands,” Middle East Report 232 (Fall 2004): 44–46. 17. In April 2005, the government had claimed that only 525 soldiers had been killed and 2,708 had been wounded. This was believed at the time to be an underexaggeration and no figures were given for nongovernment combatants. Phillips, “Cracks in the Yemeni System.” 18. Interview with a source affiliated with an elite faction of the military who requested anonymity, April 2007. 19. Interview with a senior GPC official, Sana’a, January 2006. 20. According to two of President Saleh’s advisors, by 2005 the president had become increasingly unwilling to heed advice from those outside his extreme inner circle. Interviews, Sana’a, August 2004 and November 2007. 21. Lisa Wedeen, “Seeing Like a Citizen, Acting Like a State: Exemplary Events in Unified Yemen,” in Counter-Narratives: History, Contemporary Society, and Politics in Saudi Arabia and Yemen, ed. Madawi al-Rasheed and Robert Vitalis (New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2004), p. 255. 22. E-mail correspondence with a Western embassy official who works closely with the MoF and was quoting the Deputy Minister of Statistics and Planning, received July 2005. Taxation and customs duties are arbitrary and the MoF can choose to extend its favor to some importers (often military) and not to others (often private operators outside its patronage network). 23. Interview with a former GPC member of Parliament, Sana’a, June 2004. 24. This was referred to on a number of occasions during interviews with members of Parliament, Sana’a, between June and December 2004 and was also heard conversationally on a number of occasions. After fieldwork had been completed, this post was taken by Islah’s former Assistant Deputy Minister of Finance, Saif al-Asaly. 25. Various informal conversations with government employees, Sana’a, March–December 2004. 26. The Yemeni Ministry of Civil Service listed the number of government employees as being 473,710 at the end of 2004 (this figure does not include members of the armed forces), e-mail correspondence with a Western embassy official, received July 17, 2005. The MoF has been known to intentionally delay salaries to ward off dissent among its employees. Another way of extending their co-optive reach is by paying loyal staff members extra salaries. For example, there are reportedly 120,000 people on the Ministry of Education’s payroll but only around 30,000 actually report for work. Interview with Western diplomat who works closely with the MoF, Sana’a, July 2004. 27. Stephen Day even argues that the centralized control of the MoF by the northern regime was the primary reason that the two sides ended up at war in 1994. NOTES 193

Day, “Power-Sharing and Hegemony: A Case Study of the United Republic of Yemen” (PhD diss., Georgetown University, 2001), p. 304. 28. Floor Beuming, “The Merger of the Dagger and the Rifle: Failing Integration of Former South Yemen into the Unified Republic of Yemen” (Masters thesis, University of Amsterdam, October 2004), p. 44. 29. Day, “Power-Sharing and Hegemony,” p. 272, footnote 27. Day cites the Yemen Times, October 10, 1994. 30. The World Bank Group, Economic Growth in the Republic of Yemen: Sources, Constraints and Potentials (Washington, D.C.: The World Bank, 2002), p. 30. 31. Marco Denes, “Yemen Special Report,” Petroleum Argus, June 27, 2005, p. 7. It was still around this figure in 2004 (after going slightly above this) though it appeared to be in decline. 32. Transparency International, Corruption Perceptions Index 2004, available online at http://www.transparency.org/cpi/2004/cpi2004.en.html#cpi2004. 33. Yemen Times, “Robert Hindle, WB Country Manager Gives His Perspective Before Leaving Yemen: World Bank demands more reform,” September 16, 2004. 34. Yemeni Ministry of Finance, Bulletin of Government Finance Statistics,p.18. 35. Economist Intelligence Unit Newswire, Yemen: Country Outlook, May 23, 2005. 36. Mohammed al-Qadhi, “WB Warns of Yemen’s Reform Package Collapse,” Yemen Times, October 14, 2004. 37. Paul Garwood “Yemen Under New Pressure to End Corruption,” Seattle Post Intelligencer, October 27, 2005. Available online at http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/ national/1107AP_Yemen_Corruption.html. This is combined with a loss of donor income from the IMF, which has been withholding US$300 million in concessional finance since 2002 owing to the government’s failure to comply with IMF poverty reduction and growth facility reforms. Economist Intelligence Unit Newswire, Yemen: Country Outlook, January 24, 2006. 38. Walid al-Saqqaf and Mohammed al-Jabri, “Yemen Unlikely to Reach MDGs: UNDP,” Yemen Times, October 20, 2005. 39. Economist Intelligence Unit, Yemen Country Profile 2006/2007, report summary available online at http://store.eiu.com/index.asp?layoutϭshow_sample& product_idϭ60000206&country_idϭYE. 40. Interview with a Western diplomat who works closely with the MoF, Sana’a, July 2004. 41. Interview with a YSP MP, Sana’a, December 2004; interview with a professional analyst of tribal and parliamentary politics, Sana’a, May, 2005. See also “Dr. Bafadl to Yemen Times: The Government Deceives the Council, and the Wages Strategy Is an ‘April Fool,’” Yemen Times, June 9, 2005. 42. “Parliament and Cabinet: Tension Accumulates,” Yemen Times, September 19, 2005. This article reported that the allocations for the fiscal years 2001, 2002, and 2003 were less, however, at 15, 19, and 16 percent, respectively. 43. “Parliament Approves Additional Appropriation to Budget,” Yemen Times, December 8, 2005. 44. “Yemeni Parliament Approves 2006 Fiscal Budget,” NewsYemen, December 29, 2005. A member of Islah pointed out that the new budget allocated an average 194 NOTES

of YR1000 ($5.20) per citizen for education and YR750 ($3.90) per citizen for health. Available online at http://newsyemen.net/en/view_news.asp?sub_noϭ 3_2005_12_29_5730. 45. Quoted in Ali al-Faqih, “Yemen Oil Price Difference Totals 2B Dollars,” NewsYemen, March 26, 2006. Available online: http://www.newsyemen.net/ en/view_news.asp?sub_noϭ6_2006_03_26_5929. The Economist Intelligence Unit also noted its inability to account for the real value of Yemen’s oil exports, noting that “details are scant” in its Yemen Country Profile 2006/2007. 46. Interview with a senior YSP official, Sana’a, December 2004. 47. See Day, “Power-Sharing and Hegemony,” pp. 472–76; and Saad al-Deen Ali Talib, “Hadhramis Networking: Salvage of the Homeland” (paper presented at the International Conference on “The Arab Hadhramis in Southeast Asia: Identity Maintenance Or Assimilation?” at the International Islamic University Malaysia, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, August 2005). Talib says that this was another attempt “to undermine any future plan for secession of Hadhramaut.” 48. International Crisis Group, Yemen: Coping with Terrorism and Violence in a Fragile State (ICG Middle East Report no. 8, January 8, 2003), p. 8. 49. This was article 143 of the 1994 constitution. 50. This issue is dealt with in greater length by Beuming, The Dagger and the Rifle, pp. 73–74. 51. United Nations Development Program, Decentralisation and Local Development Support Program (DLDSP)—Pilot Phase (Sana’a: UNDP Program Document, 2003). Cited by Beuming, The Dagger and the Rifle,p.75. 52. Interview with a Western Embassy official who works closely with the MoF, Sana’a, July 2005. 53. Interview with a foreign development expert working with the local councils, Sana’a, January 2006. 54. Stephen Day,“Yemeni Unification 1990–2005: Democracy, Power Sharing, and Central-Local Government Relations,” (paper presented at the Middle East Studies Association, Washington, D.C., November 2005). 55. He retracted this same promise in 1996. 56. “Ruling Party Starts Election Campaign,” Yemen Times, October 10, 2005. 57. Sharon Beatty, Ahmed No’man al-Madhaji, and Renaud Detalle, Yemeni NGOs and Quasi NGOs, Analysis and Directory. Part 1: Analysis (Sana’a, Republic of Yemen, May 1996), pp. 18–20. 58. In early 2008, the issue of appointment was being reviewed. 59. Yemeni Center for Strategic Studies (YCSS), 2003 Annual Report, available from the YCSS offices in Sana’a, p. 16. 60. Prior to the constitutional amendments of 2001, parliament had a four-year term. 61. Interview with a former GPC MP, Sana’a, June 2004. 62. Interview with a YSP MP, Sana’a, December 2004. 63. Omar Daair, “He Who Rides the Lion. Authoritarian Rule in a Plural Society: The Republic of Yemen,” (MSc diss., University of London, 2001). Available online at http://www.al-bab.com/Yemen/pol/daair1.htm. NOTES 195

64. Ahmed Abdulkareem Saif, The Yemeni Parliamentary Elections: A Critical Analysis (Dubai: Gulf Research Center, 2004), p. 25. 65. Ibid., p. 17. Saif reports that a GPC MP explained this action against party heads saying that because GPC MPs are not generally consulted before decisions are passed, the members do not feel compelled to follow them on the peripheral issues. 66. Interview with a tribal ally of President Saleh, Sana’a, December 2004. 67. Interview with a YSP MP, Sana’a, December 2004. 68. Interview with a former GPC Member of Parliament, Sana’a, June 2004. Background information about this incident was obtained in an interview with a member of an NGO that had worked closely with the group of parlia- mentarians to raise the issue, Sana’a, March 2004. Legislation to reintroduce compulsory military service was approved in 2007. 69. United States Agency for International Development, Democracy and Governance Assessment of Yemen, 2004 (Washington, D.C.: Center for Democracy and Governance, February 2004), p. 30. 70. Interview with a YSP MP, Sana’a, December 2004. 71. The Oil Minister, who had been one of the key figures in the scandal, lost his position two years later in the 2006 cabinet reshuffle. 72. ARD, Center for Democracy and Governance, Democracy and Governance Assessment of Yemen,p.31. 73. Interview with an Islah member of Parliament, Sana’a, December 2004. See also attendance figures 1997–1998 for the previous parliament: “Yemen’s Parliament: Dismal Record of Participation,” Yemen Times, March 8, 1999. The 1997–2003 Parliament is widely believed to have acted with more commitment than the parliament that succeeded it. 74. All following figures on the education levels of the 2003 Yemeni parliamentar- ians are based on the list given in SCER, The 2003 Parliamentary Elections: Electoral Documents, Results and Records (Sana’a: Supreme Commission for Elections and Referendum, December 2004), in Arabic, pp. 188–259. 75. This figure was commonly given conversationally and was cited during interviews with members of Parliament and other political observers and activists, see also al-Asaly, “The Political Economy of Economic Growth Policies,” p. 16. 76. Yemeni Constitution 2001, article 64, section 2c. 77. Saif, Yemeni Parliamentary Elections,p.21. 78. While the YSP’s boycott of the 1997 elections cleared space for new candidates, the percentage of returned incumbents was even less in the 2003 elections where the YSP competed but won only seven seats. 79. Interview with a GPC MP, Sana’a, July 2005. 80. Interview with an Islah MP, Sana’a, December 2004. 81. Yemeni Center for Strategic Studies, 2003 Annual Report,p.16. 82. Fou’ad al-Salahi outlines this tribal dominance in the Consultative Councils between 1962 and 1988. See Fou’ad al-Salahi, Al-dawlah wa al-qabeelah wa al-mujtim’a al-madani [The State, the Tribe, and Civil Society] (Ta’izz: Centre for Human Rights Training and Information, 2002), in Arabic, p. 50. 196 NOTES

83. Manfred W. Wenner, The Yemen Arab Republic: Development and Change in an Ancient Land (Boulder, CO: Westview, 1991), p. 156. 84. Interview with local analyst of tribal and parliamentary politics, Sana’a, May 2005. 85. Al-Asaly, “Political Economy of Economic Growth Policies,” p. 16. 86. Interview with an employee at a political NGO, Sana’a, May 2005. 87. Saif, Yemeni Parliamentary Elections,p.20. 88. Ibid. Saif does not give a date for when this survey was taken, however, based on other material in the paper it is likely to have taken place after the 2003 elections. 89. This is according to the 2003 official report by the SCER, Final Results for the 1999 Presidential Elections, September 23, 1999, in Arabic. Available from the Commission’s Head Office in Sana’a, Yemen. However, other sources, such as Saif, Yemeni Parliamentary Elections, p. 14, list the number of independents elected in 2003 as eight. The discrepancies are owing to the confusion immediately after the elections when a number of independent candidates quickly aligned themselves with either the GPC or Islah. 90. Ibid., p. 37. 91. Iris Glosemeyer, “The Development of State Institutions,” in Le Yemen Contemporain, ed. Remy Leaveau, Frank Mermier, and Udo Steinbach (Paris: Editions Karthala, 1999), pp. 79–100. 92. Yasser Mohammed al-Mayassi, “Al-Ahmar Declares Session over: Heated Argument over Report of Gas Project,” Yemen Times, June 23, 2005. 93. Saad al-Deen Ali Talib, A Decade of Pluralist Democracy in Yemen: The Yemeni Parliament after Unification (1990–2003) (paper presented at Second Annual Conference of Parliamentary Program, “Parliamentary Reform in New Democracies,” Cairo University, Cairo, Egypt, July 15–17, 2003). 94. Interview with a prominent Hashid tribal leader and former member of Parliament who witnessed the incident, Sana’a, May 2005. 95. Informal conversation with an Islah MP, Sana’a, December 4, 2004. 96. Khaled Mohsen al-Akwa’a, The Policy Role of Senior Civil Servants in the Government of Yemen (PhD diss., Portland State University, 1996), pp. 195–96. 97. While this survey was taken in 1996, interviews from 2004 to 2005 corroborated its findings. 98. Interview, Sana’a, December 2004.

Chapter 4

1. Robin Madrid, Resident Director of the National Democratic Institute, quoted in James Brandon, “Yemen Attempts to Rein in Outlaw Tribes,” Christian Science Monitor 25 (January 2006). 2. Rafiq Latta, “Yemen: Unification and Modernisation (London: Gulf Centre for Strategic Studies, 1994),” p. 18. 3. Socialist newspapers have also derided the tribal elements of Islah in this way. Paul Dresch and Bernard Haykel, “Stereotypes and Political Styles: Islamists NOTES 197

and Tribesfolk in Yemen,” International Journal of Middle Eastern Studies 27, no. 4 (1995): 408. 4. Stephen Day, “Power-Sharing and Hegemony: A Case Study of the United Republic of Yemen” (PhD diss., Georgetown University, 2001), p. 362. 5. Cited in Joseph Kostiner, Yemen, The Tortuous Quest for Unity, 1990–94 (London: Royal Institute of International Affairs, 1996), p. 45. 6. See Paul Dresch, A Modern History of Yemen (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2000), pp. 197–98. 7. Abd al-Ghani al-Iryani, political consultant, e-mail message , received in March 2006. 8. Robert D. Burrowes, The Yemen Arab Republic: The Politics of Development, 1962–1986 (Boulder, CO: Westview; London: Croom Helm, 1987), p. 51. 9. Floor Beuming,“The Merger of The Dagger and the Rifle: Failing Integration of Former South Yemen into the Unified Republic of Yemen” (masters thesis, University of Amsterdam, October 2004), p. 28. 10. John Ishiyama, “The Sickle and the Minaret: Communist Successor Parties in Yemen and Afghanistan After the Cold War,” Middle East Review of International Affairs 9, no. 1 (March 2005):11. 11. Fred Halliday, Revolution and Foreign Policy: The Case of South Yemen, 1967– 1987 (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2002), pp. 46–47. Regional identities were also a factor in the 1986 bloodletting. Kiren Aziz Chaudhry, The Price of Wealth: Economies and Institutions in the Middle East (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 1997), p. 300. 12. This figure is only a rough estimate based on interviews with a number of local experts. 13. Steven Caton, ‘Peaks of Yemen I Summon’: Poetry as Cultural Practice in a North Yemeni Tribe (Berkeley and Los Angeles: University of California Press, 1990), p. 218. 14. Faleh A. Jabar makes this point with reference to Iraq in “Sheikhs and Ideologues: Deconstruction and Reconstruction of Tribes under Patrimonial Totalitarianism in Iraq, 1968–1998,” in Tribes and Power: Nationalism and Ethnicity in the Middle East, ed. Faleh Abdul-Jaber and Hosham Dawood (London: Saqi Books, 2003), p. 100. 15. Patricia Crone, Pre-Industrial Societies (Oxford and New York: Blackwell, 1989), p. 57, cited in Victoria Naomi Kelly, “State-Building in Central Asia: Tradition, Modernity and Post-Modernity” (master’s thesis: Australian National University, 2002), p. 11. 16. Cited by Paul Dresch, “Imams and Tribes: The Writing and Acting of History in Upper Yemen,” in Tribes and State Formation in the Middle East,ed. S. Khoury and J. Kostiner (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1990), p. 280. Such notions have continued to permeate regime discourse, Nasser Arrabyee, “Loyalty Divided Between State, Tribe,” Gulf News Online, June 29, 2002 quotes Hameed al-Ahmar, son of Sheikh Abdullah and part of the regime establishment as saying, “The tribe is the people, while the tribe as power is complementary to the state and one of its components.” 198 NOTES

17. Interview with Abd al-Ghani al-Iryani, political consultant, Sana’a, June 2004. Stephen Day also cites interviews with several ranking GPC officials where they expressed their concerns that decentralizing government power risked empowering tribal sheikhs. Day, “Power-Sharing and Hegemony,” p. 440. 18. The Small Arms Survey reported in 2003 that Yemen’s tribes held a total of 5.58 million small arms and the sheikhs held 184,000, while the state held only 1.5 million. Derek B. Miller, “Demand, Stockpiles and Social Controls: Small Arms in Yemen,” Small Arms Survey, Occasional Paper No. 9, May 2003, p. 28. This figure was calculated largely by educated guesswork and should be taken as indicative only. 19. Paul Dresch, “The Tribal Factor in the Yemeni Crisis,” in The Yemeni War of 1994: Causes and Consequences, ed. Jamal al-Suwaidi (Emirates Center for Strategic Studies and Research: Saqi Books, 1995), p. 38. 20. Ibid., p. 42. 21. Ibid., p. 38. 22. Ibid., p. 34. 23. One author has seemingly misquoted Dresch as calling the system a “tribal military-commercial complex” (italics added). This is likely because the omission in Dresch’s characterization is quite unexpected. Omar Daair, “He Who Rides the Lion. Authoritarian Rule in a Plural Society: The Republic of Yemen,” (MSc diss., University of London, 2001). 24. Ibid., p. 35. Dresch makes a similar argument in Modern History, pp. 192–93, where he quotes a northern tribal leader denouncing the concentration of power in the hands of the Sanhan tribe. 25. Interview with the head of a local NGO, Sana’a, July 2005. He suggested that this was partly because military service is so poorly paid that it is not attrac- tive to the urban population. Dresch also concedes that “recruitment to [the army] may certainly show a tribal bias but the structure of [it] is not tribal.” Dresch, “Tribal Factor,” p. 42. 26. Ibid., p. 41. 27. F. Gregory Gause III, Saudi-Yemeni Relations: Domestic Structures and Foreign Influence (New York: Columbia University Press, 1990), p. 25. 28. Day, “Power-Sharing and Hegemony,” p. 419. 29. Interview with tribal ally of President Saleh, Sana’a, May 2005. 30. See for example, Day, “Power-Sharing and Hegemony,” p. 212. 31. Study cited in Beuming, “The Dagger and the Rifle,” p. 91. 32. Hassan al-Zaidi,“Marib Events Reflect Crisis between State and Tribe,” Yemen Times, February 14, 2005. 33. Robert D. Burrowes, “Yemen: Political Economy and the Effort against Terrorism,” in Battling Terrorism in the Horn of Africa, ed. Robert I. Rotberg (Washington, D.C.: Brookings Institution Press, 2005), p. 148. Burrowes cites Yemen Times, November 20, 2003. 34. The then British Ambassador Frances Guy confirmed the death of at least one man on the day of the incident. The Yemen Times reported that there were at least two people killed and possibly four (the three policemen and NOTES 199

one passerby), “Sept. 29 Fatal Firefight near British Embassy: Gun Battle ‘Normal Accident,’” Yemen Times, October 7, 2002. 35. Interview with a local analyst who witnessed the events, Sana’a, May 2005. In traditional Yemeni culture, the bride and groom have separate wedding parties. 36. Ibid. 37. For such a large area of urban combat using heavy ammunition, there were relatively few casualties. In a tribal conflict such as this, people are usually not killed intentionally. 38. There were no injuries to anyone in the embassy. Interview with a British diplomat, Sana’a, May 2005. 39. Interview with a (nontribal) local analyst, Sana’a, May 2005. The Yemen Times also concluded that such incidents are “frequent” in Yemen and that this one only gained such publicity “because it occurred near a Western embassy.”“Sept. 29 Fatal Firefight near British Embassy,”Yemen Times. 40. Interview with Sheikh Abdullah, United Press, October 3, 2002 (in Arabic). Available online at http://www.alahmar.net. 41. Day, “Power-Sharing and Hegemony,” p. 333. 42. Kostiner, Tortuous Quest, p. 40. 43. For a discussion on the vast amounts of money that flowed to Northern Yemeni tribes from Saudi Arabia in the 1970s and 1980s, see Paul Dresch, Tribes, Government and History in Yemen (Oxford: Clarendon, 1989), p. 19. 44. Elham M. Manea, “Yemen, the Tribe and the State” (paper presented at the “International Colloquium on Islam and Social Change” at the University of Lausanne, October 10–11, 1996). Available online at http://www.al-bab.com/ yemen/soc/manea1.htm. 45. Saudi Arabia supported the former South financially in its secession, although it never formally recognized the South as a state. 46. This figure was consistently reported in interviews during 2004–05 and was publicly acknowledged by the Saudi government after the death of Sheikh Abdullah in late 2007. The Saudi government confirmed that the sheikh’s sons would continue to receive the monthly payment. 47. Charles Schmitz, “Transnational Yemen: Global Power and Political Identity in Peripheral States,” Arab World Geographer 6, no. 3 (2003): 156. 48. Interview with Abd al-Ghani al-Iryani, political consultant, Sana’a, May 2005. Estimates vary: Brian Whitaker states that the Yemen Times claimed in 1998 that the list of recipients had dwindled from 27,000 to 11,000. Brian Whitaker, Yemen Overview 1998, available online at http://www.al-bab.com/bys/articles/ whitaker98.htm. 49. Yemen Times, July 31, 2000, cited by Daair, “He Who Rides the Lion.” 50. Interviews with two local political analysts, Sana’a, May 2005. 51. Interview with an employee at an NGO that works with Yemeni tribes, Sana’a, August 2005. 52. The area of Marib was well represented in this action, but were reportedly tribes from several regions involved. 53. Hassan al-Zaidi, “Government and Marib Tribes Make Deal,” Yemen Times, August 1, 2005. 200 NOTES

54. Interview with an employee at an NGO that works with Yemeni tribes, Sana’a, August 2005. 55. Christopher Ward, “Yemen’s Water Crisis,” July 2001, available online at http://www.al-bab.com/bys/articles/ward01.htm. 56. G. Lichtenthaler and A. R. Turton, “Water Demand Management, Natural Resource Reconstruction, and Traditional Value Systems: A Case Study from Yemen” (Occasional Paper no. 14, Water Issues Study Group, School of Oriental and African Studies, University of London, 1999). Available online at http://www.ciaonet.org/wps/lig03/index.html. 57. Interview with an official in the Ministry of Water and Environment, Sana’a, July 2004. 58. Interviews with several (Northern) tribesmen, Sana’a, June 2004, November 2004, and July 2005. This is impossible to verify but the consistency with which it was reported by tribal sources warrants its mention. 59. Paul Dresch,“The Position of Shaykhs among the Northern Tribes of Yemen,” Man 19, no. 1 (1984): 41. 60. The World Bank Group, Comprehensive Development Review: Judicial and Legal System Building Block, 2000, p. 7. Available online at http://lnweb18. worldbank.org/mna/mena.nsf/Attachments/Judicial/$File/BB-5.pdf. 61. National Democratic Institute For International Affairs,“Yemen:A Report on The Survey Study Implemented in Marib, Al Jouf and Shabwah Governorates,” unpublished document, Negotiations and Reconciliations Support Program, 2007, Section 7.5. Respondents were allowed to give more than one response for their preferred method of state involvement; the three stated above were the most popular and were suggested by 44, 34, and 61 percent of respondents respectively. 62. Revenge killing is sometimes associated with tribal conflict and occurs when a member(s) of a tribe is killed and that tribe seeks to kill a male member of the perpetrator’s tribe in revenge. This can spill into a cycle of violence that in some cases has lasted for decades. 63. National Democratic Institute For International Affairs, “Yemen: A Report on The Survey Study Implemented in Marib, Al Jouf, and Shabwah Governorates,” Section 7.6. 64. For details on its functioning, see Naguib A. R. Shamiry, “The Judicial System in Democratic Yemen,” in Contemporary Yemen: Politics and Historical Background, ed. B. R. Pridham (New York: St. Martin’s, 1984), pp. 175–94. 65. Jillian Schwedler, Framing Political Islam in Jordan and Yemen (PhD diss., New York University, 2000), p. 209. 66. Beuming, “The Dagger and the Rifle,” p. 89. 67. Sheila Carapico, Civil Society in Yemen: The Political Economy of Activism in Modern Arabia (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1998), p. 203. The attempt was carried out upon the orders of Sheikh al-Shayif, a Northern sheikh from the Bakil confederation with close relations to President Saleh. As fighting broke out at the beginning of the 1994 civil war, Hassan Makki had argued strongly to President Saleh that the conflict should be de-escalated NOTES 201

and a relationship with the YSP maintained. Days later his car was shot killing two of his bodyguards and wounding Makki so severely that he had to be flown out of the country for emergency treatment. Despite al-Shayif’s own admission of involvement, no criminal charges were brought against him. Instead, he made amends by slaughtering a bull outside his intended victim’s home—a traditional tribal custom for settling blood feuds—and the issue was forgiven. Hassan Makki was not from a tribal background, however, and did not recognize this act as a legitimate means of resolving the matter. 68. This is also apparent in prohibitions against fighting in marketplaces and confusion over the conditions for the payment of blood money. See Interna- tional Crisis Group,“Yemen: Coping with Terrorism and Violence in a Fragile State” (ICG Middle East Report No. 8, January 8, 2003), p. 14. 69. Dresch, Tribes, Government and History, p. 361. 70. Interview with a tribal leader and member of parliament, Sana’a, December 2004. 71. Interview with a sheikh (affiliated with the GPC) who receives payments from the DTA, Sana’a, November 2004. 72. Interview with a GPC member of parliament, Sana’a, October 2004. 73. Yemeni Ministry of Finance, Bulletin of Government Finance Statistics,p.79. The Ministry’s initial data for 2004 indicates that the DTA received YR888 million ($4.8 million) in 2004 and was estimated to receive YR945 million ($5.1 million) in 2005. 74. Interview with a sheikh (affiliated with the GPC) who receives payments from the DTA, Sana’a, November 2004. 75. Interview with an employee at an NGO that works with Yemeni tribes, Sana’a, August 2005. 76. Interview with a (nontribal) businessman, Sana’a, September 2004. 77. Steven Caton, Yemen Chronicle: An Anthropology of War and Mediation (New York: Hill and Wang, 2005), pp. 331–32. 78. Abdullah M. al-Faqih, “The Struggle for Liberalization and Democratization in Egypt, Jordan and Yemen” (PhD diss., Northeastern University, 2003), p. 232. 79. Mamoun Fandy, “Tribe vs. Islam: The Post-colonial Arab State and the Democratic Imperative,” Middle East Policy 3, no. 2 (1994). Available online at http://www.mepc.org/public_asp/journal/9406_fandy.asp. 80. See Daair,“He Who Rides the Lion”; Manea,“Yemen,the Tribe and the State.” 81. Ahmed Abdulkareem Saif, The Politics of Survival and the Structure of Control (MA Dissertation, University of Exeter, September 1997). Available online at http://www.al-bab.com/yemen/unity/saif4.htm. 82. Interview with a former advisor to King Hussein of Jordan, Amman, August 2004. 83. Beuming, “The Dagger and the Rifle,” p. 87. 84. See W. Flagg Miller, “Metaphors of Commerce: Trans-Valuing Tribalism in Yemeni Audiocassette Poetry,” International Journal of Middle East Studies 34 (2002): 29–57. 202 NOTES

85. Interview with a prominent Southern journalist, Aden, July 2005. 86. Day, “Power-Sharing and Hegemony,” p. 446. 87. Dresch, “Tribal Factor,” p. 33. 88. Kostiner, Tortuous Quest, p. 80. 89. For example, Hassan al-Zaidi (often a spokesman for tribal affairs) says, “The tribes also played a worthy role beside the legitimate forces against the seces- sionists in the civil war of 1994” in “The Tribe and the State in Yemen,” Yemen Times, March 29, 2004. Several tribesmen also commented anecdotally that they saw a significant growth in the number of their friends’ possessions after returning home from the large-scale looting of Aden that immediately followed the war. 90. Interview with the head of a local NGO, Sana’a, July 2005. 91. Al-Thawra, July 7, 2005. 92. Daair, “He Who Rides the Lion.” 93. The South’s situation was also extremely dire, and the tribes may not have been aware of the extent of the Northern regime’s troubles, seeing them instead as more likely to defend their interests than would a victorious South. In any event, some $1.5 billion appeared in state coffers overnight allowing the North to bolster its armaments and seal victory. Interview with local political analyst, Sana’a, August 2005. 94. Dresch,“Tribal Factor,”p. 33, footnote 2. See Day’s argument in “Power-Sharing and Hegemony,” pp. 357–59. 95. Fred Halliday,“The Third Inter-Yemeni War,” Asian Affairs 26 (June 1995): 133. 96. Day, “Power-Sharing and Hegemony,”p. 359. Day implies that it was only the North that drew on support from tribal militias, citing Kostiner, Tortuous Quest, p. 80: “The Northern army had about 40,000 reservists and could call up a tribal militia, drawn mostly from the Hashid confederation of up to 100,000 men.” However, Kostiner also notes on page 84 that the South could reinforce its army “most notably by its tribal militia” of around 20,000— a comparable percentage considering that the South’s population was also between 20 and 25 percent of that of the North. 97. Halliday, “Third Inter-Yemeni War,” 134. 98. Iris Glosemeyer, “Local Conflict, Global Spin: An Uprising in the Yemeni Highlands,” Middle East Report, 232, Fall 2004, p. 45. 99. Quoted in an unpublished paper by Abd al-Ghani al-Iryani, 2005, received from the author. 100. Interview with a tribal ally of President Saleh, Sana’a, December 2004. 101. Interview with the head of a local NGO, Sana’a, July 2005. 102. Interview with an employee at an NGO that works with Yemeni tribes, Sana’a, May 2005. 103. Interview with a tribal activist, Sana’a, November 2004. 104. See, for example, “MP Accuses Authorities of Fomenting Conflict,” Yemen Times, September 15, 2005; Yasser Mohammed al-Mayyasi, “Tribal Confron- tations Leave Dozens Killed and Wounded,” Yemen Times, July 14, 2005. 105. Interview with a local political analyst who was privy to this dispute, Sana’a, May 2005. NOTES 203

106. Steven Caton makes a similar conclusion: “The government’s neglect of tribal problems might even be strategic, weakening the tribal opponents to its rule by letting them bleed to death in factional feuding” in Yemen Chronicle, p. 312. 107. Dresch, “Tribal Factor,” p. 55. 108. Ibid., p. 40. Dresch wrote this in 1995. 109. Interview with GPC member of parliament and tribal sheikh, Sana’a, October 2004. 110. International Crisis Group, “Yemen,” p. 14. 111. Ibid., p. 16. 112. Manea, Yemen, the Tribe and the State. 113. Ibid.

Chapter 5

1. In developed democracies, political parties are usually viewed as state institutions, not CSOs. They are included in the above definition for two reasons— they are politically organized groups theoretically working to communicate with the regime and counter its monopoly on power, and the Yemeni regime also adopts largely the same tactics of control to deal with the parties as they do with other CSOs. In Yemen, political parties other than the GPC and Islah before 1997 do not constitute part of the state. 2. Guillermo O’Donnell and Philippe C. Schmitter, Transitions from Authoritarian Rule: Tentative Conclusions about Uncertain Democracies, vol. 4 (Baltimore, MD: John Hopkins University Press, 1986), p. 49. 3. This proposition was suggested by William Zartman, “Opposition as Support of the State,” in Beyond Coercion: The Durability of the Arab State, ed. Adeed Dawisha and William Zartman, vol. 3 (London and New York: Croom Helm, 1988), pp. 61–87. The idea has more recently been explored with regard to Egypt by Holger Albrecht, “How Can Opposition Support Authoritarianism? Lessons from Egypt,” Democratization 12, no. 3 (June 2005): 378–97. 4. See Albrecht, “How Can Opposition Support Authoritarianism?” 392. 5. Ibid. 6. Ibid., 384. 7. Amy Hawthorne discusses this as an issue throughout the region, “Middle Eastern Democracy: Is Civil Society the Answer?” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace: Democracy and Rule of Law Project, no. 44, March 2004, p. 11. Available online at http://www.ceip.org/files/pdf/CarnegiePaper44.pdf. 8. This was organized in conjunction with the European Union, was attended by all Arab countries, and resulted in the Sana’a Declaration. 9. Interview with a professor at Sana’a University, Sana’a, June 2004. 10. Interview with an advisor to President Saleh, Sana’a, August 2004. 11. Interview with a member of the Majlis al-Shura, Sana’a, December 2004. 12. Interview with an unnamed local activist who was explaining his or her reason for choosing not to register the organization officially. Cited in Sharon Beatty, 204 NOTES

Ahmed No’man al-Madhaji, and Renaud Detalle, Yemeni NGOs and Quasi NGOs, Analysis and Directory. Part 1: Analysis (Sana’a, Republic of Yemen, May 1996), pp. 24–25. 13. Interview with an Islah member of the Medical and Pharmaceutical Syndicate, Sana’a, September 2004. The Medical Syndicate had previously been split into three separate syndicates (Doctors’, Pharmacists’, and Dentists’) that were controlled by selected doctors who were members of the GPC. The member noted that the new syndicate was composed solely of “members of the opposition, there were no GPC officials there,”and so it was, therefore, not recognized by the GPC. 14. Paul Dresch, A Modern History of Yemen (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2000), p. 189. 15. The GPC supported the party’s leader Abdullah al-Janadi—a member of Parliament—in his local area, agreeing not to field a GPC candidate there effectively giving him their votes. 16. This process of creating smaller parties from their larger, more legitimate predecessors became popularly known as tafreekh, or “hatching.” 17. Interview with a professor at Sana’a University, Sana’a, November 2004. 18. Ibid. 19. Interviews and informal discussions were conducted in Sana’a between March and November 2004 with members of the Lawyers’, Teachers’, Professors’, Students’, Doctors’ and Pharmacists’, and Journalists’ Syndicates. April, May, July, September, and October 2004. 20. Interview with lawyer and member of Lawyers’ Syndicate, Sana’a, April 2004. 21. Yemeni law requires that NGOs have regular elections for its leadership. This was often not carried out and contributed to the number of unaccountable (often corrupt) organizations vying for donor funds and government favors. Beatty, al-Madhaji, and Detalle, Yemeni NGOs and Quasi NGOs, report that the centralization of power within NGOs is one of the key inhibitors of their effectiveness, p. 69. 22. Interview with several employees and former employees at various Yemeni NGOs, Sana’a, June 2004. Variations on this charge were repeated by others. 23. Khaled Almahdi, “Civil Society in Crisis,” IPS World News, October 17, 2003. Available online at http://www.oneworld.org/ips2/oct00/02_41_007.html. 24. Interview with Deputy Minister of Social Affairs Ali Saleh Abdullah, Sana’a, July 2005. 25. Interview with NGO activist, Sana’a, June 2004. 26. Sato (Kan) Hiroshi,“NGOs in Yemen: Learning from Past Experiences,” Yemen Times, July 6, 1998. 27. Quoted in Kareem Fahim, “First the Guns, Now the Butter,” Village Voice, October 19, 2004. Available online at http://www.villagevoice.com/issues/0442/ fahim.php. 28. Maha Abdel Rahman, “The Politics of ‘unCivil’ Society in Egypt,” Review of African Political Economy 91 (2002): 21. This comment was made with regard to Egypt but it is valid in the Yemeni context. NOTES 205

29. Ahmed Abdulkareem Saif, The Politics of Survival and the Structure of Control (master’s thesis, University of Exeter, September 1997). 30. Interview with Abd al-Ghani al-Iryani, political consultant, Sana’a, April 2005. 31. Interview with Hadhrami businessman, Mukalla, July 2005. 32. Stephen Day, “Power-Sharing and Hegemony: A Case Study of the United Republic of Yemen” (PhD diss., Georgetown University, 2001), p. 505. 33. An anecdotal indication of which is that during months of research on Yemeni civil society, the author did not encounter an activist who responded to the question “what percentage of Yemeni NGOs do you think function efficiently and independently?” with a figure of greater than 10 percent. 34. Interview with a religious scholar, Sana’a, May 2005. 35. National Democratic Institute for International Affairs, The April 27, 2003 Parliamentary Elections in the Republic of Yemen, p. 7. Available online at http://www.ndi.org/worldwide/mena/yemen/yemen.asp. 36. Sheila Carapico, “How Yemen’s Ruling Party Secured an Electoral Landslide,” Middle East Report Online, May 16, 2003. Available online at http://www. merip.org/mero/mero051603.html. 37. Interview with Abd al-Ghani Abd al-Qadir, head of the YSP’s political department, Sana’a, December 2004. 38. Interview with a former senior Islah official, Sana’a, May 2005. 39. This paragraph draws from an unpublished paper written with Murad Zafir for Yemen’s National Democratic Institute about the constraints on Yemen’s opposition parties, Sarah Phillips and Murad Zafir, “Baseline Assessment of the Joint Meeting Parties (JMP) Coalition in Yemen,” 2007. 40. The once staunchly independent leader of YIDD became a member of the GPC in 2003. 41. Deborah Dorman and others, Yemeni NGOs and Quasi-NGOs, Part II: Directory (Sana’a, Republic of Yemen, May 1996), p. 128. 42. Sheila Carapico, Civil Society in Yemen: The Political Economy of Activism in Modern Arabia (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1998), p. 196. 43. Ibid. 44. Interview with a former YIDD employee, Sana’a, May 2004. 45. Interview with a former YIDD member and a lawyer who worked on the court case, Sana’a, June 2004. AID’s board also ended up in court over an internal dispute. 46. Daniel Brumberg, “Liberalization Versus Democracy: Understanding Arab Political Reform” (working paper, 37, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Washington, D.C., May 2003), p.7. Nadia Khouri-Dagher writes: “In Morocco, for example, between 30,000 and 36,000 NGOs have sprung up since the 1980s.The same thing is happening in Jordan, where 17% of the population belongs to an association of some kind.” Nadia Khouri-Dagher, “Arab NGOs: The Difficulty of Being Independent,” Sources 124 (June 2000): 6–7. 47. See United Nations National Human Development Report Project, Yemen: Human Development Report 2000/2001, p. 100. Available online at http://www. undp.org.ye/nhdr.htm, p. 55. This is not to say that these organizations do not have an impact on their members and communities. These organizations stand 206 NOTES

in contradiction to arguments that tribally based societies are politically pas- sive. Whether they contribute to the development of national democracy is another matter. 48. Ibid., p. 92. 49. Unfortunately, as is so often the case with statistical information issued by the government, the page (p. 302) that gives the broad indicators for 2003 gives the daily issues of al-Thawra as being 35,000, which is 10,000 more than it states on the following page. As this table is meant as a summary of the information in the following tables (which provides more detailed information), the above figures were calculated on the figure of 25,000. 50. There were also 27,000 bimonthly publications, 107,500 monthly, 402,000 quarterly, 11,000 half-yearly, and 8,000 annual publications. 51. These indicative figures are calculated on the 2004 census results, which showed Yemen to have a population of 20 million. The second figure was calculated by halving the weekly number of daily papers. It is, of course also possible that one paper was read by more than one person. 52. An employee of the independent al-Ayyam paper claimed that in reality only 13,500 copies of al-Thawra are distributed each day. Interview, Aden, July 2005. 53. Stacey Philbrick Yadav, “Pen Battles Sword,” Cairo Magazine, April 21, 2005. 54. Committee to Protect Journalists, “Attacks on the Press 2003: Documented Cases from the Middle East and North Africa for 2003/Yemen,” available online at http://www.cpj.org/attacks03/mideast03/yemen.html. 55. Zartman, “Opposition as Support of the State”. 56. Brumberg, “Liberalization Versus Democracy”,p. 9. 57. Interview with a prominent lawyer and human rights activist, Sana’a, June 2004. 58. Interview with the head of a local NGO, Sana’a, April 2004. 59. Comment made by a member of an opposition political party and political debating group, Sana’a, May 2004. 60. Interview with an official in a minor opposition party, Sana’a, September 2004. 61. Interview with a board member of a political discussion group, Sana’a, June 2004. 62. Mushtaq H. Khan, “The Role of Civil Society and Patron-Client Networks in the Analysis of Corruption,” in United Nations Development Programme, Corruption and Integrity Improvement Initiatives in Developing Countries, 1998, pp.111–27. Available online at http://magnet.undp.org/Docs/efa/corruption. htm#7%20The%20Role%20of%20Civil%20Society. 63. Similarly, Iliya Harik refers to the role of civil society in democratic development and consolidation in advanced industrial nations as having been a “happy coincidence”—not a fundamental element to be necessarily repeated in less- developed nations where, as he argues, society has strong authoritarian ten- dencies. Iliya Harik, “Rethinking Civil Society: Pluralism in the Arab World,” Journal of Democracy 5, no. 3 (July 1994): 45. 64. Khan, “Role of Civil Society and Patron-Client Networks,” p. 126. NOTES 207

65. Interview with the director of a democratization advocacy NGO, Sana’a, November 2004. 66. Interview with the director of the YIDD, Sana’a, November 2004. 67. Ibid. 68. This had been a part of Dankwart Rustow’s argument discussed in Chapter 1. 69. Alcohol is illegal for Yemenis but is still accessible. 70. It is well known, however, that these regular semiformal political forums are covertly monitored by the PSO, regardless of formal registration. 71. Interview with a member of a political discussion group, Sana’a, September 2004. 72. Ibid. 73. Interview with former assistant deputy minister of finance for Islah Saif al-Asaly, Sana’a, May 2005. Al-Asaly took up a position as the new Minister of Finance the following year.

Chapter 6

1. See Robert D. Burrowes, The Yemen Arab Republic: The Politics of Develop- ment, 1962–1986 (Boulder, CO: Westview; London: Croom Helm, 1987), pp. 101–02. 2. International Crisis Group, “Yemen: Coping with Terrorism and Violence in a Fragile State” (ICG Middle East Report no. 8, January 8, 2003), p. 9. 3. Jillian Schwedler rightly notes that Sheikh Abdullah “cannot be characterized as not Islamist” either because he embodied a number of political identities. Jillian Schwedler, Faith in Moderation: Islamist Parties in Jordan and Yemen (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2006), p. 71. The Sheikh’s strong ties with Saudi Arabia (discussed in Chapter 4) added another layer of religious credentials to his weight as a tribal and political leader. 4. By 2007, Zindani’s weight in the party was diminished considerably and he was no longer in an official leadership position. Sheikh Abdullah had become seriously ill by this time and while he retained his leadership position, was much less involved in the functioning of the party. 5. Omar Daair, “He Who Rides the Lion. Authoritarian Rule in a Plural Society: The Republic of Yemen,” (MSc diss., University of London, 2001). 6. There are some within the party who reject the idea of party politics and thus reject the term “party” (hizb) also to describe Islah, preferring “gathering” (tajamma’) instead. Most members of Islah will, however, refer to themselves as Hizb al-Islah. 7. Charles Schmitz, “Transnational Yemen: Global Power and Political Identity in Peripheral States,” Arab World Geographer 6, no. 3 (2003): 155. 8. Interview with a senior party official, Sana’a, October 2004. 9. Ludwig Stiftl, “The Yemeni Islamists in the Process of Democratization,” in, Le Yemen Contemporain, ed. Remy Leaveau, Frank Mermier, and Udo Steinbach (Paris: Editions Karthala, 1999), p. 260. 208 NOTES

10. Jillian Schwedler, “Framing Political Islam in Jordan and Yemen” (PhD diss., New York University, 2000), p. 281. 11. This paragraph draws from Richard I. Lawless, “Yemen: History,” in Regional Surveys of The World: The Middle East and North Africa 2005, 51st ed. (London and New York: Europa Publications, 2005), p. 1247. 12. The word “Islah” as an Islamic concept also refers to the reformation of society in an Islamic context. Graham E. Fuller, The Future of Political Islam (New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2003), p. 49. 13. Stiftl, “Yemeni Islamists,” p. 262. 14. For further discussion of the origins of the JMP alliance, see Michaelle Browers, “Origins and Architects of Yemen’s Joint Meeting Parties,” International Journal of Middle East Studies 39 (2007): 565–86. 15. Schwedler, Framing Political Islam, pp. 282–84. 16. Lawless, “Yemen: History,”, p. 1252. Most of Islah’s MPs still voted to accept the amendments, which indicates that there was probably a deal between party leaders and the government. 17. Interview with a former GPC member of parliament, Sana’a, May 2004. 18. Interview with a senior Islah official, Sana’a, October 2004. 19. Ibid. 20. The elections were postponed by about two weeks. 21. Yemen Times, January 8, 2001, cited in Jillian Schwedler, Islam, Democracy and the Yemeni State” (paper presented at the conference on “Islam, Democracy and the Secular State in the Post-Modern Era,” Georgetown University, April 7, 2001). 22. Yemen Times, July 16, 2001, cited in Daair, “He Who Rides the Lion.” 23. Floor Beuming, The Merger of the Dagger and the Rifle : Failing Integration of Former South Yemen into the Unified Republic of Yemen” (masters thesis, University of Amsterdam, October 2004), p. 76. 24. Supreme Commission for Elections and Referenda, Final Results for the 2003 Parliamentary Elections. 25. Carol J. Riphenburg, “Gender Relations and Development in Yemen: Partici- pation and Employment,” Peacekeeping and International Relations 28, no. 3 (May–June 1999): 6. 26. Interview with the head of Planning and Development Department, Islah Charitable Society for Social Welfare (ICS), Sana’a, November 2004. Sheila Carapico notes an “unofficial” link between the ICS and the Islah Party in Civil Society in Yemen: The Political Economy of Activism in Modern Arabia (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1998), pp. 156–57. 27. Beuming, The Dagger and the Rifle, p. 70. Some studies indicate that in the 1990s, around 20 percent of Yemen’s six million students attended religious high schools. International Crisis Group,“Yemen: Coping with Terrorism and Violence in a Fragile State” (ICG Middle East Report no. 8, January 8, 2003), p. 9. 28. Ahmed Abdulkareem Saif, “The Politics of Survival and the Structure of Control” (MA diss., University of Exeter, September 1997). Available online at http://www.al-bab.com/yemen/unity/saif4.htm. NOTES 209

29. Personal conversation with an Islah member, Sana’a, November 18, 2004. 30. Schmitz, “Transnational Yemen,” pp. 155–56. 31. United Press International (UPI),“Yemen bans Muslim clerics from sermons,” reprinted in Big News Network, February 6, 2005. Available online at: http: //feeds.bignewsnetwork.com/?sidϭ3e8429ee985353a3. 32. Interview with local a political analyst, Sana’a, April 2005. See also Stephen Day, “Power-Sharing and Hegemony: A Case Study of the United Republic of Yemen” (PhD diss., Georgetown University, 2001),” p. 456, footnote 81. 33. Mohammed al-Assadi, “Continued Fight against Extremism Starts from Mosques,” Yemen Observer, May 13, 2005. 34. Economist Intelligence Unit Newswire, “Yemen: Clampdown on Religious Schools,” August 13, 2004. 35. Interview with Saif al-Asaly, former assistant deputy finance minister of Islah, Sana’a, December 2004. 36. Ibid. 37. As the SCER never released the final results of these elections, this figure is difficult to confirm and was given by an Islah MP during an interview (Sana’a, November 2004). Based on the party’s results in the 1997 and 2003 elections and on the preliminary figures for 2001, it is likely to be a reasonable estimate. Another high party official estimated that Islah received around 30–35 percent of the popular vote in these elections. Interview, Sana’a, September 2004. 38. See National Democratic Institute for International Affairs, The NDI, April 27, 2003 Parliamentary Elections in the Republic of Yemen. Available online at http://www.ndi.org/worldwide/mena/yemen/yemen.asp., and Sheila Carapico, “How Yemen’s Ruling Party Secured an Electoral Landslide,” Middle East Report Online, May 16, 2003. Available online at http://www.merip.org/ mero/mero051603.html. 39. Ahmed A. Hezam Al-Yemeni, The Dynamic of Democratisation—Political Parties in Yemen (Bonn: Friedrich-Ebert-Siftung, 2003), p. 49. 40. NDI, April 27, 2003, p. 24. 41. Calculation based on the 2003 final results for all candidates in all districts found in the Supreme Commission for Elections and Referendum, Final Results for the 2003 Parliamentary Elections. 42. Interview, Sana’a, September 2006. 43. Interview with Abd al-Ghani al-Iryani, political consultant, Sana’a, September 2004. 44. Day, “Power-Sharing and Hegemony,” p. 457, footnote 82. 45. Islah had also done well there in 1993, fielding thirty candidates and winning eighteen, while the GPC fielded thirty-nine candidates and won only eight seats. 46. Day, “Power-Sharing and Hegemony,” p. 294, footnote 89. 47. This is a sensitive issue within the party: “Thank you for the question, I would like to set this straight. We don’t have competing branches, I can prove this. Islah is an open forum, there is freedom for everyone to express their opinions without punishment, our decisions are made by groups, not individuals… We have ideas and trends, not branches.” Interview with Najeeb Ghanem, Islah member of parliament, Sana’a, September 2003. 210 NOTES

48. James Piscatori, Islam, Islamists, and the Electoral Principle in the Middle East (Leiden: ISIM, 2000), p. 49. Available online at http://www.isim.nl/files/ paper_piscatori.pdf. 49. Nathan J. Brown, Amr Hamzawy, and Marina Ottaway, “Islamist Movements and the Democratic Process in the Arab World: Exploring the Gray Zones,” Carnegie Working Paper, no. 67, March 2006, p. 8. 50. Ibid. 51. Schwedler, “Islam, Democracy,” p. 26. 52. Ibid. 53. Ibid., p. 27. 54. Interview with an Islah member of parliament, Sana’a, September 2004. 55. A member of the party’s Majlis al-Shura commented that “Sheikh Abdullah is the only major leader who is not a member of the Muslim Brotherhood.” Interview, Sana’a, May 2005. In the leadership that existed before the 2007 internal party elections, these included the general secretary (Mohammed al-Yadumi), deputy general-secretary (Abd al-Wahab al-Ansi—also former deputy prime minister), deputy president (Yasin Abd al-Aziz—considered to be the party’s chief policy architect), chairman of the Majlis al-Shura (Consultative Council—the party’s governing body, Abd al-Majeed al- Zindani), deputy chairman of the Majlis al-Shura (Abd al-Rahman al-Imad), and head of the Political Department (Mohammed Qahtan). After the 2007 elections, Muslim Brotherhood members became even more powerful and prominent, controlling not only the majority of leadership positions but also all functional offices and regional branch offices. 56. Jillian Schwedler, “The Islah Party in Yemen: Political Opportunities and Coalition Building in a Transitional Polity,” in Islamic Activism: A Social Movement Theory Approach, ed. Quintan Wiktorowicz (Bloomington and Indianapolis: Indiana University Press, 2004), p. 215. 57. Al-Yemeni, Dynamic of Democratisation,p.51. 58. This information was gained from a number of informal conversations with Islah’s members and leaders in January–February 2007. 59. Schwedler, Faith in Moderation, pp. 190–91 and 195. 60. Bylaws received from a leader of the JMP in July 2007. 61. Sa’atr received the second-highest number of votes in the party for the Majlis. 62. Mohammed al-Sadiq, “The Return of the Salt of the Earth,” Sawt al-Iman, in Arabic, March 2007. 63. Men and women vote in separate polling centers. 64. Author’s observations during an electoral observation mission and informal conversations with Islah party members about the outcome, September 2007. 65. Jillian Schwedler, “Yemen’s Aborted Opening,” Journal of Democracy 13, no. 4 (2002): 52. 66. Interview with Saif al-Asaly, Islah’s former assistant deputy minister of finance, Sana’a, November 2004. 67. Interview with a member of Islah’s Majlis al-Shura, Sana’a, May 2005. 68. The Muslim Brotherhood refers to al-Zindani as one of its graduates and lists him eighteenth on a list of twenty-one “thinkers, scholars and activists” of the NOTES 211

twentieth century, Muslim Brotherhood Movement (homepage) http://www. ummah.org.uk/ikhwan/. 69. Paul Dresch and Bernanrd Haykel, “Stereotypes and Political Styles: Islamists and Tribesfolk in Yemen,” International Journal of Middle Eastern Studies 27, no. 4 (1995): 413. 70. Al-Zindani was quoted in 1995 for example by, al-Thawri, a YSP publication, as saying: “Political pluralism and secularism copied from the West are inap- propriate for our Muslim society in Yemen…Whoever joins a political party in the name of pluralism has betrayed his country by promoting sectarianism and secular governance.” Cited in Schwedler, Framing Political Islam, p. 266. 71. It is widely believed that al-Zindani’s al-Iman (Faith) University is a breeding ground for violent radicalism. The extracurricular activities of some of its students (convicted American Taliban fighter John Walker Lindh, the assas- sin of the YSP’s Jarallah Omar, and the murderer of the American doctors in Jiblah, for example) lend credence to this claim. 72. When journalist and party member Nabil al-Soufi published the list of indictments against Zindani in the U.S. Treasury Department list in October 2005, he received a number of death threats from Zindani’s office. 73. Evan Kohlman, “In Too Deep: Terrorism in Yemen,” National Review 17 (January, 2003). 74. Interview with a senior party official, Sana’a, October 2004. 75. Beuming, “The Dagger and the Rifle,” p. 87. 76. Steven Caton, Yemen Chronicle: An Anthropology of War and Mediation (New York: Hill and Wang, 2005), p. 325, see also pp. 293–94. 77. Schwedler emphasizes the regime’s manipulation of public uncertainty: “There is little evidence that the party follows Zindani’s lead on any consis- tent basis. In many ways, Zindani seems to be tolerated more than supported by the majority of Islah’s leadership, in large part for the economic and mobilization resources he brings to the party. Yet the comments of those like Zindani and Daylami receive disproportionate play in the press.” Schwedler, Framing Political Islam, p. 225. 78. Sheikh Abdullah al-Ahmar also noted the religious importance of the war against the South: “Our slain soldiers will go to heaven, and their dead soldiers will go to hell.” Dresch and Haykel, “Stereotypes and Political Styles,” p. 409, footnote 29, citing a quote in Time, July 4, 1994. 79. Stiftl, “Yemeni Islamists,” p. 255. 80. Repeated requests by the author for interviews with the party’s leading ideologues and agenda-setters Yasin Abd al-Aziz and al-Zindani were refused, whereas other leaders known for their moderate stance at times actively sought interviews. 81. Interview with Saif al-Asaly, former assistant deputy finance minister of Islah, Sana’a, November 2004. 82. Interview with a member of Islah’s Majlis al-Shura, Sana’a, May 2005. 83. Interview with an employee at a democracy advocacy NGO, Sana’a, October 2004. He referred particularly to the periods following the September 11, 2001 attacks in the United States and the assassination of an al-Qa’ida operative 212 NOTES

(Ali Qa’id Sinan al-Harithi) from an unmanned U.S.-operated drone as times that Islah tried to educate its followers not to react to these events. 84. Interview with Saif al-Asaly, former assistant deputy finance minister of Islah, Sana’a, November 2004. 85. Interview with a member of Islah’s Majlis al-Shura, Sana’a, October 2004. 86. Abdul-Aziz ibn Qa’id al-Masudi, “The Islamic Movement in Yemen,” Middle Eastern Affairs Journal 2, nos. 2–3 (1995): p. 37. 87. Saif, Yemeni Parliamentary Election,p.28. 88. Political program of Islah, 1993, cited in al-Masudi, “Islamic Movement in Yemen,” p. 35. 89. Saif, Yemeni Parliamentary Elections,p.28. 90. Yemeni Islah Party, Political program of the Islah Party, 1997, available online at http://www.al-bab.com/yemen/pol/islah.htm. 91. Interview with the head of Islah’s planning department, Sana’a, September 2004. Other leaders made very similar comments, such as “the only difference between shura and democracy is that democracy has only one reference: people, but shura, in addition to people, there are divine laws to be respected.” E-mail correspondence with Islah MP Abd al-Rahman Ba Fadl, March 2005. 92. Yemeni Islah Party, “Political Program.” 93. Ibid. 94. Ibid. 95. Ibid. 96. Dresch and Haykel, “Stereotypes and Political Styles,” p. 420. 97. Schwedler, “Islah Party in Yemen,” p. 219. Schwedler is referring to justice minister Abd al-Wahab al-Daylami as the exception. 98. Interview with a professor at Sana’a University, Sana’a, May 2004. 99. Interview with a ranking YSP official, Sana’a, November 2004. 100. Ibid. 101. Sarah Phillips, “Foreboding about the Future in Yemen.” For full text of the document online in English, see “JMP Document on National and Political Reform,” NewsYemen, January 18, 2006, available online at http://newsyemen. net/en/view_news.asp?sub_noϭ4_2006_01_18_5767. 102. See Michaelle Browers, “Origins and Architects of Yemen’s Joint Meeting Parties,” International Journal of Middle East Studies 39 (2007): 579–82 for further discussion of these omissions. 103. Interview with Najeeb Ghanem, Islah member of parliament, Sana’a, September 2004. That Islah would rather cooperate with other political organizations to solve Yemen’s problems is a common feature of Islah’s centrist public rhetoric. In 1995, the party’s deputy secretary-General, Abd al-Wahab al-Ansi, commented that even if Islah won a majority in the next elections, it would seek to share power. Lawless, “Yemen: History,” p. 1247. 104. This statement was made by a ranking Islah official in response to a question about Islah’s caution in joining a wider opposition campaign against political inheritance. Interview with a senior party official, Sana’a, October 2004. 105. Interview with a middle-ranking party member and scholar of Islamist politics, Sana’a, October 2004. NOTES 213

106. Sheikh Abdullah bin Hussein al-Ahmar, Al-Jazeera television, April 6, 2005. 107. Interview with a senior party official, Sana’a, October 2004. 108. Interview with former deputy prime minister Abd al-Wahhab al-Ansi, Sana’a, October 2004. 109. Interview with Mohammed al-Sa’adi, head of Islah’s planning department, Sana’a, September 2004. 110. See Ziyad Ayadat, “The Islamic Movement: Political Engagement Trends,” in Islamic Movements in Jordan, ed. Jillian Schwedler (Amman: Al-Urdun Al-Jadeed Research Center, 1997), pp. 145–65. 111. The relationship between the Muslim Brotherhood and the Islamic Action Front (IAF) is controversial in this regard, however. For more on this debate see Hani Hourani and others, Islamic Action Front Party: Civil Society and Political Life in Jordan, (Amman: Al-Urdun Al-Jadeed Research Center, 1993) p. 17–22. 112. Malik Mufti, “Elite Bargains and the Onset of Political Liberalization in Jordan,” Comparative Political Studies 32, no. 1 (February 1999): 110. 113. Quintan Wiktorowicz cites a number of interviews to this effect in “Islamists, the State, and Cooperation in Jordan,” Arab Studies Quarterly 21, no. 4 (Fall 1999): 1–17. 114. Graham Usher,“Hamas Risen,” Middle East Report 238 (Spring 2006). Available online at http://www.merip.org/mer/mer238/usher.html. Hamas won 74 seats. 115. “In ureed ila al-islah ma astata’tu wa ma tawfeeqee ila bi-lah ’alayhi taakkalt.” Translation from Mohammed Tawfi-ud-Din Al-Halali and Mohammed Muhsin Khan, Interpretation of the Meanings of the Noble Qur’an in the English Language, 5th ed. (Riyadh: Dar us-Salam Publications, 1995). 116. “Wa ila khudh ’ala yad al-dhaalim.” Yemeni Islah Party, “Political Program,” in Arabic. 117. Dresch and Haykel, “Stereotypes and Political Styles,” p. 413. 118. Ibid. 119. Ibid. 120. Schmitz, “Transnational Yemen,” p. 155. 121. Email from Abd al-Rahman Ba Fadl, Islah member of parliament, former minister of trade, former minister of fisheries, March 2005. 122. al-Ahmar, Al-Jazeera Interview. 123. The author was a monitor during these elections and witnessed the campaign flurry first hand. 124. News Yemen, “Bin Shamlan Will Remain Independent, Islah to Reshuffle Leaders,” October 9, 2006. 125. Observation based on interviews and personal conversations with a number of Islah supporters and members throughout 2004–06. 126. Interview with a senior Islah official, Sana’a, October 2004. 127. Several informal discussions revealed that Islah does have a considerable presence within the military but that the leaders understand that this factor could also make any conflict even more dangerous. 128. This line is impossible to draw absolutely—public dissent had been clearly building since around the time that the first Sa’ada war erupted in mid-2004, 214 NOTES

but from the author’s first-hand observations, there was a noticeable shift from late 2005 to early 2006 that was related to the impending elections and the possibility of serious unrest. 129. The apology was not made publicly by President Saleh, however, but by the president of the Majlis al-Shura, Abd al-Aziz Abd al-Ghani, which was interpreted by some as a further calculated snub to Sheikh Abdullah. 130. Al-Ahmar, Al-Jazeera Interview. 131. Gregory Johnsen, “Salih’s Road to Reelection,” Middle East Report Online 13 (January 2006). Available online at http://www.merip.org/mero/mero011306. html. 132. Interview with a local political analyst who was privy to the aftermath of this meeting, Sana’a, February 2006. 133. Mohammed al-Qadhi, “JMP & PGC [GPC]: Confrontation or Compromise?” Yemen Times, April 24, 2006. 134. Johnsen, “Salih’s Road.” 135. Mustafa Rajeh, “Crisis in Parliament,” Yemen Times, February 6, 2006. 136. “Islah Encourages Women Candidates,” Yemen Times, January 5, 2006. Ultimately their participation was extremely limited, however. 137. Interview with employee in an advocacy NGO that works with Islah, Sana’a, February 2006. 138. This was reported in Phillips, “Foreboding about the Future in Yemen,” and prompted an almost immediate denial from Sheikh Abdullah, “Al-Ahmar Refutes Announcement ‘Leaving Yemen to Sons of President,’” NewsYemen, April 8, 2006, available online at http://www.newsyemen.net/en/view_news.asp? sub_noϭ3_2006_04_08_5978. The statement was made publicly—though not officially—and was subsequently discussed by one of his sons and was the topic of conversation at a number of politically focused qat chews around Sana’a at the time. 139. “Argument on Hamas victory in elections leads to murder in Yemen,” NewsYemen, January 29, 2006. Available online at http://newsyemen.net/en/ view_news.asp?sub_noϭ4_2006_01_29_5793; “Political Argument Leads to Killing of Islah Party Member,” Yemen Times, February 6, 2006. 140. Schwedler, Faith in Moderation, p. 192. 141. Ibid., p. 21. 142. Browers, “Origins and Architects,” p. 566.

Conclusion

1. I am grateful for Abd al-Ghani al-Iryani’s colourful turn of phrase with this analogy. 2. Guillermo O’Donnell and Philippe C. Schmitter, Tentative Conclusions about Uncertain Democracies, vol. 4 (Baltimore: John Hopkins University Press, 1986), p. 23. 3. Interview with the convener of a political discussion group, Sana’a, September 2004. NOTES 215

4. Interview with former undersecretary of finance for Islah, Saif al-Asaly, who subsequent to making this statement joined the GPC and was appointed as the minister of finance, Sana’a, May 2005. 5. Robert Burrowes, “What Is To Be Done—Now?” Yemen Times, May 11, 2006. 6. Interview with a senior party official, Sana’a, October 2004. 7. “I Am Not a Taxi, Saleh Says,” Yemen Mirror, June 22, 2006. Available online at http://www.yemenmirror.com/index.php?actionϭshowNews&idϭ53. 8. James Piscatori, Islam, Islamists, and the Electoral Principle in the Middle East (Leiden: ISIM, 2000), p. 45. Available online at http://www.isim.nl/files/ paper_piscatori.pdf. 9. Daniel Brumberg, “Islam Is Not the Solution (or the Problem),” Washington Quarterly 29, no. 1 (Winter 2005–6): 104. 10. Interview with an independent NGO employee, Sana’a, August 2004. 11. Brumberg, “Islam Is not the Solution,” 110. 12. Sheila Carapico, Civil Society in Yemen: The Political Economy of Activism in Modern Arabia (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1998), p. 207, lists as one of the main findings of her study “that civic participation fills any space ceded to it by the state.” 13. Daniel Neep,“Dilemmas of Democratization in the Middle East: The ‘Forward Strategy of Freedom,’” Middle East Policy 11, no. 3 (Fall 2004): 80. 14. Ibid., 77. 15. Carapico, Civil Society in Yemen, p. 199. Bibliography

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A Bakil tribal confederation, 43, 51, 53, Abdel Rahman, Maha, 120 91–92, 186, 200 Afghanistan, 32, 138 Barakat, Halim, 26 Ahmar, Ali Muhsin al-, 52–53 Beidh, Ali Salim al-, 47, 58, 74 Ahmar, Hameed al-, 87, 128, 171, 197 Beuming, Floor, 74, 153 Ahmar, Sadiq bin Abdullah al-, 143–44 Bill, James, 5 Ahmar, Sheikh Abdullah bin Hussein al- bin Laden family, 39, 183 on civil war, 211 bin Laden, Osama, 138 family, 87, 128 bin Shamlan, Faisal, 125, 162, 164 Hamid al-Din Imamate and, 43 Bodine, Barbara, 142 Islah Party and, 55, 137, 143–44, 149 Bowker, Robert, 27 tribal ties, 52–53 Braizat, Fares, 28 Ajami, Fouad, 24, 36 Browers, Michaelle, 165 Akwa’a, Khaled al-, 88 Brownlee, Jason, 24, 67 Albrecht, Holger, 115 Brumberg, Daniel, 3, 17, 19, 29, 34, 126, Algeria, 14, 31, 129, 163, 168 129 Ali, Salim Rubayyi, 46 Brynen, Rex, 19 al-Jazeera, 159, 164, 180 Burrowes, Robert, 45, 49, 60, 92, 97–98, Almond, Gabriel, 24 168 al-Qa’ida, 65, 211. See also terrorism Bush, George H. W., 49 Ansi, Abd al-Wahhab al-, 148, 160, Bush, George W., 28, 32, 36, 49, 64–65, 212 152 Arab Democratic Institute (ADI), 125 Asaly, Saif al-, 70, 74, 152, 154–55 C Ash’ari, al-, 27 Canadian Oxy, 59, 188 Assad, Bashar, 25 Capitalism, Socialism and Democracy Assad, Hafiz al-, 25, 121 (Schumpeter), 20 authoritarianism Carapico, Sheila, 15, 48, 50, 57, 126 pluralized, 3–6 Carothers, Thomas, 2, 18, 34 political reform and, 33–37 Catholicism, 27 autocracy, 17, 26, 34, 129 Caton, Steven, 105, 153 Awqaaf, 141, 145 CCC. See Consolidated Contractors Company B Cedar Revolution, 14 Baaklini, Abdo, 17, 36 Civic Culture, The (Almond and Ba’ath Party, 86, 120–21, 123–24 Verba), 24 236 INDEX civil disobedience, 31, 161 poverty and, 40 Civil Society in Yemen (Carapico), 16 public view of, 28 civil society organizations (CSOs) South Yemen and, 58 democracy and, 172, 203 tribalism and, 90, 94–96, 100 emergence of, 113 Crone, Patricia, 93 government and, 114–16, 118–20, CSOs. See civil society organizations 128–34 customary law, 96 opposition groups and, 119–20, 122–23 D power of, 126–28 Daair, Omar, 6 civil war Dahl, Robert A., 21 1962–1970, 44, 91, 99–100 Day, Stephen 1994, 43, 49, 54–55, 70, 78 on 1994 civil war, 58–59, 192 feedback and, 22 on control of natural resources, 77, Islah Party and, 140–41, 154 184 local councils and, 78 on Islah Party, 147 political change and, 14 on local councils, 77, 79 retraction of reforms following, 31, on tribalism, 89–90, 96, 99, 107–8 115, 119 Daylami, Abd al-Wahab al-, 140, 153 South Yemen and, 58–62, 70, 74, democracy 121 definitions of, 20–23 tribal confederations and, 99–100, minimalist approach to, 20–21 107–9 transitions to, 35–37 YAR and, 44 democratization YIDD and, 125 Arab exceptionalism, 23–33 YSP and, 46–47, 54–55 Brumberg, Daniel on, 29 Clash of Civilizations, The Bush, George W. and, 64 (Huntington), 26 economy and, 132–33 Clinton, Bill, 49 Huntington, Samuel on, 2, 20 Colomer, Josep, 36 Iraq and, 1, 66 Conference of Emerging Democracies Kostiner, Joseph on, 49 (1999), 49 liberalization and, 15–19 Consolidated Contractors Company literature on, 2–3, 14–15 (CCC), 59 local councils and, 77 Consultative Council, 45, 60, 79–80, political Islam and, 137, 140 149–50, 152, 154–55 political reform and, 33–37, 56, 58, corruption 61–62, 116 economy and, 62–65, 74–75, 133 Posusney, Marsha Pripstein on, 3–4 government power and, 6, 9, 50, Democratization and the Islamist 114–15, 120–23 Challenge in the Arab World Hamdi, Ibrahim al- and, 44 (Ghadbian), 19 Islah Party and, 141, 157, 165 Denoeux, Guilain, 17, 36 legal system and, 102 Department of Tribal Affairs (DTA), Nasser, Ali and, 46 104–6, 109 parliament and, 82–83 Diamond, Larry, 21, 36 patronage system and, 105 Document of Pledge and Accord, 57, 78 INDEX 237

“Document on National and Political Ghazali, al-, 27 Reform,” 157, 164 Glosemeyer, Iris, 87 Dresch, Paul, 45, 90, 94–96, 107–8, Gochenour, D. Thomas, 183 110, 117, 161, 198 government, Yemeni Consultative Council, 79–80 E elected bodies, 76–88 Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), 69 House of Representatives, 80–88 Egypt local councils, 76–79 CSOs and, 120, 126 military and security, 68–73 democracy and, 13–14, 17, 28, 37 Ministry of Finance (MoF), 73–75 Islah Party and, 140 national budget, 75–76 local councils and, 78 Political Security Organization Muslim Brotherhood and, 149 (PSO), 68–69 oil and, 30 spending and capacity, military, opposition groups and, 120 69–73 political reform and, 8, 30–34 state finance, 73–76 tribalism and, 25 “gray zone” political systems, 15–20 Yemeni civil war and, 44–45 embezzlement, 76. See also corruption H Hadhramaut, 42–43, 51, 57, 77, 97, F 121, 147 Faqih, Abdullah al-, 28–29 Hadi, Abd al-Rabbuh Mansour, 52 Farhan, Ishaq, 160 Hadith, 27 feedback, 3, 15, 21–22, 88, 128, 169 Hagopian, Frances, 18 Halliday, Fred, 59 G Hamas, 15, 160, 165 Gambill, Gary, 32 Hamdi, Ibrahim al-, 44–45, 91 Gao, Eleanor, 28 Hamid al-Din Imamate, 43 Garfinkle, Adam, 25 Hamzawy, Amr, 14 General People’s Congress (GPC) Harik, Iliya, 206 democracy and, 168, 170 Hariri, Rafiq, 14 formal and informal retraction, Hashid tribal confederation 57–61 background, 53 Islah Party and, 10, 53–55, 137, Bakil tribal confederation and, 186 139–48, 151–54, 158–60, 163–65 civil war and, 91–92, 202 local councils and, 77 Dresch, Paul on, 95, 110 mechanisms of control and, 116–19 government power and, 4, 105, 107 opposition groups and, 122–26, Islah Party and, 138, 148, 154 129–30, 135 preunification history, 43–44 parliament and, 79–82, 84–87 tribal autonomy and, 99 political reform and, 49–55 Hawthorne, Amy, 203 PSO and, 69 Haykel, Bernard, 161 Saleh, Ali Abdullah and, 45 Hizb al-Nasiri al-Dimuqrati, 117–18 tribalism and, 98–99, 105–6, 110 House of Representatives, 80–88 Ghadbian, Najib, 19–20, 36 Houthi, Hussein al-, 71–72, 92, 108 Ghashmi, Ahmad al-, 44 Hudson, Michael, 24, 179 238 INDEX human rights, 20, 25–26, 68, 116, 126, Jensen, Jody, 18 129 Joint Meeting Parties (JMP) Hungary, 18 background, 123–26 Huntington, Samuel, 2, 20–21, 26, 35, democracy and, 164–66 173 GPC and, 57, 79 Hussein, King, 19, 106 Islah Party and, 62, 77, 141–42, 144, Hussein, Saddam, 1, 55, 66, 121 146–47, 150–51, 162 Hussein, Saleh bin, 59 opposition groups and, 55, 168 political Islam and, 170–71 I political reform and, 157–58 Imam Ahmed, 43–44 Jordan, 8, 10, 19–20, 28, 30–34, 36–37, IMF, 60, 76, 193 44, 106, 149–50, 160 Iran, 21, 41, 44 Jordanian Center for Strategic Studies Iraq, 1, 14–15, 32, 36, 55, 62, 64, 66, 75, (JCSS), 28 121, 123 Iryani, Abd al-Ghani al-, 42 K Iryani, Abd al-Kareem al-, 49, 125 Kedourie, Eli, 26 Iryani, Abd al-Rahman al-, 44 Khan, Mushtaq, 131 Islah Party, 137–66 Khouri, Giselle, 108 background, 137–38 khuruj, 161 consistency, 151–58 Kienle, Eberhard, 33–34 democracy and, 169–71 “Kifaya” demonstrations, 14 future of, 163–66 kinship, 4, 24–26, 58, 86, 91, 120 GPC and, 10, 57 Korany, Bahgat, 19 local councils and, 77 Kostiner, Joseph, 49, 56, 202 Muslim Brotherhood and, 121 Kuwait, 36–37, 55, 187 as opposition party, 115–17, 123–25, 127, 133, 158–63 L origins and ties to GPC, 139–44 Lawyers’ Syndicate, 119 parliament and, 65, 83–86 LCCD. See Local Councils for political reform and, 59–62 Cooperative Development popular support for, 144–47 LDAs. See local development power centers, 147–49 associations schools of thought, 149–51 Legislative Politics in the Arab World Sheikh Abdullah and, 43, 101, 106 (Baaklini, Denoeux, and unification and, 49–55 Springborg), 36–37 Islamic Action Party, 160 Lewis, Bernard, 26 Isma’il, Abd al-Fattah, 46 Libya, 120 Israel, 29, 32, 71 Lindh, John Walker, 211 Local Authority Law, 78 J local councils, 77–79 Jammal, Abd al-Qadir Ba, 83 Local Councils for Cooperative Jawi, Omar al-, 59 Development (LCCD), 79 JCSS. See Jordanian Center for Strategic local development associations Studies (JCSS) (LDAs), 44, 79, 184 INDEX 239

M tribalism and, 101 Majlis al-Nuwab, 80–88 unification and, 48, 74–76 Majlis al-Shura, 45, 60, 79–80, 149–50, Omar, Jarallah, 47, 54, 90, 125, 211 152, 154–55 On Democracy (Dahl), 21 Makki, Hassan, 103, 200–201 opposition groups Manea, Elham, 111 complementarity of the state, 128–35 Marxism, 46, 48, 55, 92, 94, 120, 138 divisions within, 119–28 mechanisms of control, 116–19 Islah Party as, 158–63 Migdal, Joel, 6 Ottaway, Marina, 8, 16–17 Ministry of Finance (MoF), 67, 70, 78, Ottoman Empire, 43, 184 82, 88 Ministry of Religious Endowment, 141, P 145 Palestine, 14–15, 36, 64, 160, 165 Miszlivetz, Ferenc, 18 parliament. See Consultative Council; Montazeri, Ayatollah Hussein-Ali, 183 House of Representatives Morocco, 17, 28, 31–32, 34, 36–37, 126 patronage system Mubarak, Hosni, 13, 18–19, 25 civil society and, 113, 172–73 Mueller, John, 35 civil war and, 58, 71 Muslim Brotherhood, 53–54, 121, 138, democracy and, 51–52, 124 149–52, 154, 156–57, 160, 164, 210 economy and, 40, 63 government power and, 7, 10, 167 N Islah Party and, 10, 137, 139, 142, Nasser, Ali, 46–47 149–50, 154, 158–59, 162, 163, Nasser, Gamal Abd al-, 44 165 Nasserite Party, 86, 117–18, 120, 123–24 Middle East and, 23, 26, 33 National Liberation Front (NLF), 45–46, opposition groups and, 122, 128, 124 131–32 NGOs, 10, 16–17, 86, 94–95, 107, 120, parliament and, 81 122–23, 125–26, 129–30, 144, 204 pluralized authoritarianism and, 3–6 NLF. See National Liberation Front Saleh, Ali Abdullah and, 45 Noble, Paul, 19 state finance and, 74 Nodia, Ghia, 35 tribalism and, 90, 93–97, 99, 105, 110 No’man, Ahmed, 42 People’s Constituent Council, 45 Nye, Joseph Jr., 7 People’s Democratic Republic of Yemen (PDRY), 41–42, 46–48, 61, O 92, 97, 106, 121, 138, 141, 147, 183 O’Donnell, Guillermo, 167 Piscatori, James, 2–3, 148, 170 oil Political Economy of Activism in authoritarianism and, 29–30 Modern Arabia, A (Carapico), 126 civil war and, 57, 59 Political Order in Changing Societies corruption and, 82–83 (Huntington), 35 economy and, 2, 9, 39–40, 63, 169, 173 Political Security Organization (PSO), location of, 42–43 65, 68–69, 122, 207 opposition groups and, 130, 133 Polyarchy: Participation and Opposition patronage system and, 5 (Dahl), 21 240 INDEX

Posusney, Marsha Pripstein, 3–4 regional views of, 42–43 poverty, 23, 28, 33, 47, 63, 121, 132–33, South Yemen and, 60 189, 193 tribalism and, 4, 89–95, 97, 99–101, power 104, 106–110 hard, 8–9 YAR and, 44–47 soft, 6–8 Saqqaf, Abd al-Aziz al-, 51 PSO. See Political Security Organization Saudi Arabia Islah Party and, 138, 148, 171 Q Kuwait and, 55 qat, 10, 11, 40, 69, 108, 130, 158, 165, military and security, 70 187, 189, 214 opposition groups and, 120–21 Qur’an, 26–27, 140, 148, 155, 160 Sheikh Abdullah and, 164 tribalism and, 92, 99–100 R war on terror and, 33 Rabita al-Yamaniyya al-Shar’iyya, 118 Yemen and, 39, 44, 47, 92 Rabitat Abna’ al-Yemen, 118 SCER. See Supreme Commission for Rahman, Abdel, 120 Elections and Referendum Ra’i, Yahia al-, 87 Schlumberger, Oliver, 34 rentierism, 23, 29–31, 33, 63, 75, 114 Schmitter, Philippe C., 167 revenge killings, 92, 102–3, 106–9, 200 Schumpeter, Joseph, 20–21 Robertson, Graeme, 27 Schwedler, Jillian, 54, 142, 148, 150–51, Ross, Michael, 30 153, 165, 207, 211 Rustow, Dankwart, 35–36 September 11, 2001, 138, 145, 156, 211 Sha’abi, Najeeb Qahtan al-, 61, 189 S Sharabi, Hisham, 24 Sa’ada uprising, 33, 41, 71–72, 118, 213 Shari’a, 42, 49, 141, 155, 158, 171 Sadiki, Larbi, 31 Shuhaibi, No’man Saleh al-, 74 Sadiq, Mohammed al-, 151 shura, 155–56, 161, 212 Saif, Ahmed, 17, 50, 74, 84, 86, 195, 196 smuggling, 4, 68, 95, 133 Salami, Alawi Saleh al-, 73–74 Sofan, Ahmed Mohammed, 75 Saleh, Ali Abdullah Souswa, Amat al-Aleem al-, 128 Bush, George W. and, 64–65 Soviet Union, 47–48, 138 corruption and, 63 Springborg, Robert, 17, 36 democracy and, 16, 49, 60–62, 64 state finance, 73–76 GPC and, 134 Ministry of Finance (MoF), 73–75 Hamdi, Ibrahim al- and, 44–45 national budget, 75–76 Iraq and, 1 Stepan, Alfred, 27 Islah Party and, 117, 138–44, 146, Sudan, 31, 62, 75, 140, 157 148–50, 154, 163–66, 169–71 Sunna, 155, 161 military/security and, 68–69, 71–72 Supreme Commission for Elections and Ministry of Finance (MoF) and, Referendum (SCER), 77, 84, 85 73–74 opposition groups and, 122, 124–125 T parliament and, 81–82, 84 Ta’addudiyya,4 patronage system and, 52–53 Taba’’ud,94 power, 3, 6, 8–9, 65–66, 67 Talib, Saad al-Deen Ali, 87, 188 INDEX 241

Tanzim al-Wahdawi al-Sha’bi al-Nasiri, Wedeen, Lisa, 61, 72 117 Wenner, Manfred, 85 taxes, 29–31, 42, 73, 75, 78, 192 Whitaker, Brian, 199 terrorism, 32–33, 39–40, 50, 64–65, 75, World Bank, 30, 40, 60, 63–64, 75, 138, 164. See also al-Qa’ida 102 Tessler, Mark, 28 World Values Survey (WVS), 27–28 Thawra, al-, 107, 127, 206 third wave democratization, 2, 14–15, XYZ 20, 26, 33 Yadav, Stacey Philbrick, 128 Third Wave: Democratization in the YAR. See Yemen Arab Republic Late Twentieth Century Yaseen, Taha, 1 (Huntington), 20, 26 Yemen Tibi, Bassam, 26 overview, 39–43 “Transitions to Democracy: Toward a political economy, 62–66 Dynamic Model” (Rustow), 35 preunification history, 43–47 transitology, 13, 18 retraction of reforms, 57–62 tribalism, 89–111 unification and democracy, 47–57 al-Houthi rebellion and, 108 Yemen Arab Republic (YAR), 41, Department of Tribal Affairs (DTA) 43–45, 47–48, 85, 138 and, 104–6, 109 Yemeni Center for Strategic Studies Dresch, Paul on, 94–96 (YCSS), 79, 85 government relationship to, 103–8 Yemeni Institute for Democratic leadership, 92–93 Development (YIDD), 125–26, Northern civil war and, 91–92 132 patronage system and, 96–97 Yemeni National Dialogue of Political reinforcing power status quo, 103–111 Forces, 57–58 revenge killings and, 92, 102–3, YemenPAC, 82–83 106–9, 200 YIDD. See Yemeni Institute for tribal autonomy, 97–103 Democratic Development Tua’iman, Sheikh Abdullah YSP Mohammed, 100–101 civil war and, 54–60 Day, Stephen on, 187–88 U decentralization and, 77 United Nations Development democracy and, 49–50 Programme (UNDP), 70–71, 78 GPC and, 54–60 universities Islah Party and, 137, 139–41, 145, al-Iman, 145, 151–52, 154 146, 154, 157–59, 170 Sana’a, 47, 97, 118, 157 JMP and, 123–25 ‘urf,42 parliament and, 80, 86, 88 preunification history, 43–47 V tribalism and, 89–90, 92, 94, 106 Verba, Sidney, 24 Zaidi, Hassan al-, 202 Zartman, William, 129 W Zindani, Sheikh Abd al-Majeed al-, 47, Wahhabism, 120, 138, 153 65, 138–39, 141, 144, 148–54, 157, Waterbury, John, 26, 30, 34 164