Notes Introduction 1. About twenty-five percent of the budget is officially spent on the security apparatus but, as is discussed in Chapter 3, it is likely to be significantly more than this. 2. Thomas Carothers,“The End of the Transitions Paradigm,” Journal of Democracy 13 (January 1, 2002). 3. Samuel Huntington, The Third Wave: Democratization in the Late Twentieth Century (Norman: University of Oklahoma Press, 1991), p. 137. 4. Carothers, “End of the Transitions Paradigm,” 9 and 13. See also Daniel Brumberg, “The Trap of Liberalized Autocracy,” Journal of Democracy, 13, no. 4 (2002): 56–68. 5. James Piscatori, Islam, Islamists, and the Electoral Principle in the Middle East (Leiden: ISIM, 2000). Available online at http://www.isim.nl/files/paper_ piscatori.pdf, p. 45. 6. Ibid., pp. 23 and 25. 7. Daniel Brumberg, Liberalization Versus Democracy: Understanding Arab Political Reform, (working paper, no. 37, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Washington, DC, May 2003), pp. 4–7. 8. Marsha Pripstein Posusney, “The Middle East’s Democracy Deficit in Comparative Perspective,” in Authoritarianism in the Middle East, ed. Marsha Pripstein Posusney and Michele Penner Angrist (Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner, 2005), p. 17, footnote 20. She is speaking of the region more generally and does not refer to Yemen specifically in this regard. 9. Marsha Pripstein Posusney, “Multiparty Elections in the Arab World: Election Rules and Opposition Responses,” in Authoritarianism in the Middle East,ed. Marsha Pripstein Posusney and Michele Penner Angrist (Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner, 2005), p. 93. 10. Michael Bratton and Nicolas Van de Walle, “Neopatrimonial Regimes and Political Transitions in Africa,” World Politics 46, no. 4 (July 1994): 459. 11. Ibid. 12. This paragraph draws from an unpublished paper written with Murad Zafir for Yemen’s National Democratic Institute about the constraints on Yemen’s opposition parties: Sarah Phillips and Murad Zafir, “Baseline Assessment of the Joint Meeting Parties (JMP) Coalition in Yemen,” unpublished, 2007. 176 NOTES 13. James A. Bill and Robert Springborg, Politics in the Middle East, 4th ed. (New York: HarperCollins, 1994), pp. 166–67. 14. Joel Migdal, Strong Societies and Weak States: State-Society Relations and State Capabilities in the Third World (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1988) pp. 206–37. 15. Ibid., p. 210. 16. Ibid., p. 236. 17. Omar Daair, “He Who Rides the Lion. Authoritarian Rule in a Plural Society: The Republic of Yemen,” (MSc diss., University of London, 2001). Available online at http://www.al-bab.com/Yemen/pol/daair1.htm. 18. Ibid. 19. Joseph S. Nye Jr., The Paradox of American Power: Why the World’s Only Superpower Can’t Go it Alone (New York: Oxford University Press, 2002), p. 9. 20. William Zartman refers to this as complementarity in “Opposition as Support of the State,” in Beyond Coercion: The Durability of the Arab State, ed. Adeed Dawisha and William Zartman, vol. 3 (London, New York: Croom Helm, 1988), pp. 61–87. This is discussed in greater detail in Chapter Five. 21. Marina Ottaway, Democracy Challenged: The Rise of Semi-Authoritarianism (Washington D.C.: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2003), p. 146. Chapter 1 1. Daniel Williams, “New Vehicle for Dissent Is a Fast Track to Prison: Bloggers Held under Egypt’s Emergency Laws,” Washington Post, May 31, 2006. Williams is quoting from an interview President Mubarak gave to Egypt’s state-owned newspaper al-Gomhoreya. 2. Ibid. 3. Some of the most prominent texts in this field include: Philippe C. Schmitter and Laurence Whitehead, eds., Transitions from Authoritarian Rule, 4vols. (Baltimore, MD: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1986); Adam Przeworski, Democracy and the Market: Political and Economic Reforms in Eastern Europe and Latin America (Cambridge and New York: Cambridge University Press, 1991); and Scott Mainwaring, Guillermo O’Donnell, and J. Samuel Valenzuela, eds., Issues in Democratic Consolidation: The New South American Democracies in Comparative Perspective (Notre Dame, IN: University of Notre Dame Press, 1992). 4. See, for example, Daniel Lerner, The Passing of Traditional Society: Modernizing the Middle East (London: Glencoe, Collier, Macmillan, 1958); Gabriel Almond and James S. Coleman, eds., The Politics of the Developing Areas (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1960); Seymour Martin Lipset, Political Man (London: Heinemann, 1960); Karl Deutsch, “Social Mobilization and Political Participation,” in Political Development and Social Change, ed. Jason Finkle and Richard Gable (New York: John Wiley, 1966), pp. 384–402. 5. Dankwart Rustow famously advanced this theory in “Transitions to Democracy: Toward a Dynamic Model,” Comparative Politics 2 (April 1970): 337–63. NOTES 177 6. This argument was framed in similar terms in James Piscatori, Islam, Islamists, and the Electoral Principle in the Middle East (Leiden: ISIM, 2000). Available online at http://www.isim.nl/files/paper_piscatori.pdf, p. 11. 7. The list of such texts exploring the possibilities of democracy emerging in the Arab Middle East in the 1990s is long. Some prominent examples include: Abdo Baaklini, Guilain Denoeux, and Robert Springborg, Legislative Politics in the Arab World: The Resurgence of Democratic Institutions (Boulder, CO, and London: Lynne Rienner Publishers, 1999); Rex Brynen, Bahgat Korany, and Paul Noble, eds., Political Liberalization and Democratization in the Arab World: Theoretical Perspectives, vol. 1 (Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner Publishers, 1995); Rex Brynen, Bahgat Korany, and Paul Noble, eds., Political Liberalization and Democratization in the Arab World: Comparative Experiences, vol. 2 (Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner Publishers, 1998); Sheila Carapico, Civil Society in Yemen: The Political Economy of Activism in Modern Arabia (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1998); John Waterbury, “Fortuitous By-Products,” Comparative Politics 29, no. 3 (April 1997): 383–402; and Augustus Richard Norton, ed., Civil Society in the Middle East, 2vols. (Leiden: E. J. Brill, 1995–96). 8. See, for example Michael C. Hudson, “After the Gulf War: Prospects for Democratization in the Arab World,” Middle East Journal 45, no. 3 (1991): 407–8; Heather Deegan,“Democratization in the Middle East,”in The Middle East in the New World Order, ed. Haifaa A. Jawad, 2nd ed.(Hampshire and London: Macmillan, 1997), pp. 15–34. 9. Amr Hamzawy, Arab Political Reality: One Lens is not Enough (Policy Outlook, Washington, D.C.: Democracy and Rule of Law Project, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, March 2005). Available online at http://carnegieendowment.org/files/PO15.hamzawy.FINAL.pdf. 10. For an earlier analysis of this debate regarding democracy, see David Collier and Steven Levitsky, “Democracy with Adjectives: Conceptual Innovation in Comparative Research,” World Politics 49, no. 3 (1997): 430–51. 11. Some other noteworthy examples of this critique include: Adeed Dawisha and William Zartman, eds., Beyond Coercion: The Durability of the Arab State (London and New York: Croom Helm, 1988); Oliver Schlumberger “The Arab Middle East and the Question of Democratization: Some Critical Remarks,” Democratization 7, no. 4 (2000): 104–32; Marina Ottaway, Democracy Challenged: The Rise of Semi-Authoritarianism (Washington, DC: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2003); and Marsha Pripstein Posusney and Michele Penner Angrist, eds., Authoritarianism in the Middle East: Regimes and Resistance (Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner, 2005). For a theoretical treat- ment that is not directly related to the Middle East, see Andreas Schedler, ed., Electoral Authoritarianism: The Dynamics of Unfree Competition (Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner, 2006). 12. Carapico, Civil Society in Yemen, pp. 210–11. 13. Theodore Nkwenti, “Yemen Enacts New Law Governing Associations and Foundations,” International Journal of Not-For-Profit Law 3, no. 3 (2001). Available at http://www.icnl.org/JOURNAL/vol3iss3/cr_nafrica.htm. 178 NOTES 14. Marina Ottaway, “Evaluating Middle East Reform: How Do We Know When It Is Significant?” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace: Democracy and Rule of Law Project 56 (February 2005): 6. 15. Ibid. 16. Baaklini, Denoeux, and Springborg, Legislative Politics in the Arab World. 17. Daniel Brumberg, “Liberalization Versus Democracy: Understanding Arab Political Reform” (working paper, 37, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Washington, DC, May 2003), 8. 18. Ibid., 7. 19. Ferenc Miszlivetz and Jody Jensen, “An Emerging Paradox: Civil Society from Above?” in Participation and Democracy East and West: Comparisons and Interpretations, ed. Dietrich Rueschemeyer, Marylin Rueschemeyer, and Bjorn Wittrock (New York: M. E. Sharpe, 1998), pp. 84–85. 20. Frances Hagopian, “After Regime Change: Authoritarian Legacies, Political Representation, and the Democratic Future of South America,” World Politics 45, no. 3 (1993): 474. 21. Quintan Wiktorowicz, “Embedded Authoritarianism: Bureaucratic Power and the Limits to Non-Governmental Organisations in Jordan,” in Jordan in Transition: 1990–2000, ed. George Joffé (New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2002), pp. 110–26. 22. Thomas Carothers, “The End of the Transitions Paradigm,” Journal of Democracy 13, no. 1 (January 2002): 10. 23. It is important to note, however, that despite Carothers’ accusation of such assumptions (Ibid.), many associated with the transitions school have also explicitly denied the idea of a linear model. See Schmitter and Whitehead, Transitions from Authoritarian Rule, pp. 9–10.