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End This Phony Cyberwar OPINION End this phony cyberwar Talk of combat in the fifth domain has become a fixture in Washington. But cyberwar has never happened and probably never will, says Thomas Rid EXACTLY two decades ago, the harder than it looks. Target RAND Corporation, an influential intelligence is needed. Control think tank, proclaimed that systems are often configured “cyberwar is coming!” In 2005, for specific tasks, limiting the the US Air Force declared it possibility of generic attacks. Even would now “fly, fight, and win if they happened, such attacks in cyberspace”. The future of may not constitute a use of force. war would surely play out in that The second threat is cyber fifth domain, on top of land, sea, espionage. Data breaches are air and space. Dark warnings not just a risk, but a real bleeding of “Cyber Pearl Harbor” soon wound for the US, Europe and became a staple of Washington other advanced economies. But discourse. espionage is not war, and cyber Leaks revealed last week that espionage is not cyberwar. the US government spends a Finally, there is subversion – staggering $4.3 billion a year using social media and other on cyber operations. In 2011, internet services to undermine American intelligence agencies established authority. It is not a reportedly mounted 231 offensive surprise that subversives, from operations. The US, it seems, is Anonymous and Occupy to Arab gearing up for cyber combat. protesters, use new technologies. What would an act of cyberwar Twitter and Facebook have made look like? History suggests three organising non-violent protest features. To count as an armed easier than ever, often in the attack, a computer breach would service of liberty and freedom. need to be violent. If it can’t hurt But again, subversion is not or kill, it can’t be war. An act war, and cyber subversion is of cyberwar would also need to credit for an attack. So if we’re Code-borne sabotage is a real not cyberwar. be instrumental. In a military talking about war – the real thing, risk. Industrial control systems There are other problems with confrontation, one party generally not a metaphor, as in the “war run all sorts of things that move the concept of cyberwar. First, it uses force to compel the other on drugs” – then cyberwar has fast and can burn: trains, gas is misleading. Closer examination party to do something they would never happened in the past, is pipelines, civilian aircraft, of the facts reveals that what is otherwise not do. Finally, it would not taking place at present, and refineries, even elevators and happening is the opposite of war: need to be political, in the sense seems unlikely in the future. medical devices. Many of these computer breaches are less violent that one opponent says, “If you That is not to say that are highly susceptible to breaches, than old-style attacks. Violent don’t do X, we’ll strike you.” cyberattacks do not happen. In and information about system sabotage is harder if it is done That’s the gist of two centuries 2010, the US and Israel attacked vulnerabilities is easily available. through computers, while non- of strategic thought. Iran’s nuclear enrichment Even so, the number of violent violent sabotage is now easier No past cyberattack meets programme with a computer computer-sabotage attacks and is happening more often: these criteria. Very few meet worm called Stuxnet. A computer against Western targets is zero. crashing websites, deleting files even a single one. Never has a breach could cause an electricity Why? Because causing havoc and so on. The same goes for human been injured or hurt as blackout or interrupt a city’s water through weaponised code is espionage: infiltrating software an immediate consequence of supply, although that also has and opening remote back doors a cyberattack. Never did a state never happened. If that isn’t war, “Cyberwar has not taken is much less risky than sending in coerce another state by what is it? Such attacks are better place in the past, is not human agents and clandestinely cyberattack. Very rarely did understood as either sabotage, taking place at present and bugging embassy walls. state-sponsored offenders take espionage or subversion. is unlikely in the future” Talk of cyberwar is also 26 | NewScientist | 7 September 2013 Comment on these stories at newscientist.com/opinion disrespectful. Last year, the US Department of Defense One minute with... considered creating a new Distinguished Warfare Medal for drone operators and developers of computer attacks. Real combat Andreas Raptopoulos veterans protested vehemently when they learned that the award This entrepreneur believes that drone networks could be the would have ranked higher than roadways of the future in rural parts of the world the Purple Heart. Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel then scrapped the idea. Ending or saving the life of another human You think that drones could help get vital is an existential experience; supplies to the one billion people without deleting or modifying data is not. reliable access to roads? Talk of cyberwar also kills That’s correct. The key concept for us is a nuance. Intelligence agencies network of small drones. Alone, each of those have started to take “cyber” vehicles could cover only a small segment of the seriously. By doing so, signals- transportation network, but together they can intelligence agencies such as have a big spread. the US National Security Agency and the UK’s GCHQ, as well as Why not build roads? human intelligence agencies, are Following the lead of road systems in the West is updating their tradecraft for the a nearly impossible task for the African continent. 21st century. The West is beginning You’re talking about a massive infrastructure to have an overdue debate about investment and a huge ecological footprint. what kind of intelligence activity If you were to deliberately plan out an approach is legitimate for a 21st century to transportation and logistics in Africa, would Profile democracy, and where red lines you do it in the same way? I’m convinced that Andreas Raptopoulos is co-founder and CEO should be drawn. Drawing these the answer is no. Instead, I think you would use a of Matternet, a company in Palo Alto, California, lines requires subtlety. It is time few different modes of transportation – and one that is dedicated to using unmanned aerial for this debate to drop the prefix would be an aerial method like the drone network vehicles (UAVs) for vital transport networks “cyber” and call a spade a spade: we’re proposing. espionage is espionage. Finally, talk of cyberwar is in the Won’t a drone network be expensive too? put those on a map and see if there are reliable interest of those with a harsher For us, the most interesting thing happening transportation links for any of them. Then, if not, vision of the web’s future. Many with drones is in the super low cost category. The you design a transport system using UAVs. countries are tempted to take vehicles that you can buy today for $1000 can do control of their “cyberspace”. amazing things, and it’s just the beginning of this You did some field trials last year in Haiti and Authoritarian states like to tweak technology. Instead of big machines, like the ones the Dominican Republic. How did those go? their technical infrastructure, the military use, we’re thinking small. We took a few of our prototypes to see if they their national laws and their work well in hot and humid environments, and also firewalls to “protect sovereignty So you’re not thinking about mass transport to see how people felt about them and to explore in cyberspace”, as they like to of crops, but smaller items like medicines? some possibilities for how they could use the say – which in practice means Initially, it will be for medicine and diagnostics – technology. I couldn’t have been happier with the protecting intellectual property things that are lightweight, high value. But over enthusiastic reception we got. thieves from foreign pressure and time, as the technology matures, there’s a clear rounding up dissidents at home. opportunity to move heavier loads. That’s the big Cellphones have transformed life for many in The armed forces need to stay dream of Matternet – to become a transportation Africa. Do you think the same could happen focused on fighting and winning method that will allow economic growth. with drones? the real wars of the future. That’s Yes. It’s a radical idea, but we believe that drones hard enough. Let us not militarise In your recent TED talk you said that drones could do for transportation what mobiles did for the struggle for the free and could take HIV test samples from remote communications. Fifteen years ago, if you had said liberal internet today. n field clinics to a hospital. Tell us about this. that mobile telephones would give access to these It’s something we’re trying to make happen. In extremely poor communities and enable their ech T Thomas Rid is a reader in the Maseru, a district of Lesotho where we have done economic growth, nobody would have believed it. op /P department of war studies at King’s a case study, there are 47 clinics that collect blood We believe it's the same for transportation. ualey College London and the author of samples and six labs that analyse them. First you Interview by Alison George Q mily Cyber War Will Not Take Place (Hurst) E 7 September 2013 | NewScientist | 27.
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